Friday, December 30, 2005
The Dow lost 67 points today on again, light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I bought some OEX calls. I'm getting a buy signal, both short and intermediate so I have to take it. But the market is acting very poorly. GE was down today and my calls are now losing money. We are on the trendline and any weakness will negate this trade. I'm looking for the market to rally when it opens on Tuesday and perhaps I will just bail out of everything then. I will have to look at things over the long weekend. But right now it doesn't look good. Gold was up a buck but the XAU lost some ground and is right at its uptrend line. A break there could result in a short position but I have too much going on already. So I'm already in over my head for next year so let's take a look back at this past year. I started out losing 30% of my trading capital in the first 2 months. It was a terrible beginning which I do not want to repeat this year. But who knows? It was an up and down year. I made a lot of mistakes and had a few nice trades. But it wasn't quite good enough. There is room for a lot of improvement and I know this. My win % sucked. I got in late and out early. I got in early and out late. I had some options expire worthless which should never happen. I've got to get better. My trading account ended the year up 80%. It was a very frustrating year. I would like to have a better year in 2006. I've committed to doing the work. My discipline must improve. I know it isn't easy and I also realize that it is totally up to me. There are no excuses. I'll try and relax over this weekend and then get off to a good start for the next trading year...
Thursday, December 29, 2005
Short blog today. Market not acting well, Dow down 11 on light volume. Advance/declines negative. GE up a few cents after being higher most of the day. I'd like to have the guts to pick up some OEX calls here but I don't. XAU still moving to new highs with gold actually down a bit. I am getting a buy signal on the overall market but it is short term. Perhaps I will think about it tonight and maybe get up early tomorrow and get some calls. Risky. No time today to write. More tomorrow...
Wednesday, December 28, 2005
The Dow was up 18 points on light volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. GE was down early and ended up basically unchanged. My GTC order for calls was filled. I don't know if I'm glad or sad. I suppose I still want to do this trade but I'm skeptical at this point. We have moved sideways for so long I don't know what to think. It is right at the uptrend line though so if ever there was a time to try this trade, now is it. We'll see what happens. Gold was up around $7 and the XAU broke out to a new high. NEM rallied also. Perhaps I should have kept a better eye on this for this is where the volume is. But it could just be an end of the year thing with managers wanting some gold shares in their portfolio. That's a guess. The XAU is higher now than when gold touched $540. I think it's a positive for the XAU. Time will tell on that also. I think we are approaching oversold here on the overall market and hopefully GE will rise along with it. Nothing is for sure in this game though. Mentally I'm OK but would like to get a bit more sleep. I've been getting up earlier than I used to. Don't know why. We should limp along to the end of this holiday week here I believe. But with the volume so light, anything can happen.
Tuesday, December 27, 2005
The Dow lost 105 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. No buyers today and I don't know what to say. I thought this would be just a slow week but who knows now? GE was down around 35 cents and is right at the trendline. My order is 10 cents away from being filled but now I don't know if I want it. I left it in though because I think by the end of the week today will be forgotten. Or maybe not. Gold was up $5 but I think the XAU was actually down today. I'll be keeping an eye on things for sure. Mentally I'm a little off with poor sleep lately and just a holiday mode. That has to change. I would like to get off to a good start trading next year for a change. It is up to me. Yeah the XAU was down over half a point. I'm going to stick with GE for now and it should get filled tomorrow or else today was the day to get it. You can never tell.
Friday, December 23, 2005
The Dow was down 6 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. It is holiday time. Next week should be slow with no real conviction one way or the other. Gold was little changed, the XAU rallied and then fell back. GE went nowhere. I still have my GTC order in but I'm thinking that I might cancel it next week. Not getting a good feel right now about where we are headed. Mentally I need a break but will stay focused on what I need to do. I'll review what happened this year and prepare for 2006...
Thursday, December 22, 2005
The Dow was up 55 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. It is the holiday season. Volume will be light and the movement will have an upside bias. At least it should. GE was up about 30 cents on light volume. I am leaving in my GTC order and it doesn't look like it will be filled. We haven't gotten to the trendline as yet and may not for all I know. We'll see. But I think that at this rate I am pretty much done for this year. Gold was up 9 bucks and the XAU rose 2 and a half points. I guess I better keep an eye on this also. But the extra week on the options means that we are just arriving at the normal cycle. The market has moved higher and the OEX calls have barely budged. That is the trouble with extra time. Movement in the indexes doesn't necessarily mean movement in the option price. Mentally I'm doing fine with an extra half hour before going to work making for no time pressures. I'm looking forward to taking it easy over the long weekend and think that tomorrow will be a snoozer too.
Wednesday, December 21, 2005
The Dow was up 28 points on light volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. We were due a bounce and the market was much higher earlier in the day. I think we will move higher but hang around for a day or two. GE was down about 20 cents and is almost at the uptrendline. My order remains in effect and it could get hit tomorrow. Or I might have to adjust it if the line is touched. We'll see what happens. Gold was down today but the XAU rose 3 points. Interesting. I may need to keep a closer eye on that. Not much else to say about today. Mentally I'm feeling fine. The week should close quietly, with the holidays arriving over the weekend. Next week should be a snoozer early on also.
Tuesday, December 20, 2005
The Dow was down around 31 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were about even. I took yesterday off from the blog and we were down yesterday also. We are at short term oversold. Any downside tomorrow can be used to get long it you want to. However the summation index has turned down so I'm not so sure what to do here. I am trying to get long GE. I have a GTC order in for some January 35 calls. We are almost at the uptrendline for GE and I will get long there. If it doesn't hold, I'll get out. Might want to try some OEX calls here also. Not sure exactly what I'll do but should try something if the technicals call for it. Gold was down again today and is now under $500. The XAU fell a couple points too. Staying away from that market for now. No clear idea of what to do there. I'll wait for the XAU to get back to the trendline. But this market could be over as far as the longside goes. Don't know for sure but I'll keep an eye on it. No other trading thoughts for now but I do expect some strength here in the stock market towards the end of the year in anticipation of the new year. Mentally I'm a bit tired as I had to get up early today and did not get a full nights sleep. Also trying to be patient here as the options have an extra week on them. But I have to do it when the signal comes and it looks like we are getting one tomorrow but it could be a weak one. We'll see...
Friday, December 16, 2005
The Dow lost 6 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. I managed to stay out and did not make any trades this week. GE was basically unchanged. Gold was up a bit and the XAU gained about 2 points. We now enter the holiday period which generally has a bullish bias. However we are up against resistance and slightly overbought. Volume tends to dry up now too so it's hard to trust any moves. I would like to get long GE but now I'm not so sure. There are negative divergences out there on the McClellan oscillator and that cannot be ignored. I am also getting bearish readings on the CBOE call/put indicator. I guess I will just have to try and be patient to wait for a decent signal. Perhaps I'll take the rest of the year off at this point. Try and get ready for next year which should offer many good opportunities. Mentally I'm feeling better, getting over the slight cold that I have. I need to re-focus on what needs to be done here to insure the success that awaits next year. But for now I'll try and relax, enjoy the weekend and develop some type of gameplan for the new year. An extra week on the January options also will play into the scenario. But for now, rest...
Thursday, December 15, 2005
The Dow lost a point on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. We are almost done with expiration week. I think it is skewing things a bit. Overbought here and need a rest. GE was up on heavy volume. Looks like I missed that one. Not feeling good about that. Gold was down again today and the XAU was actually up about a point. No trades there for now. I am trying to sit it out here and so far have been successful on that count. Don't know about GE now but I still feel like it could work. Not much else for now with the holidays coming up. There is usually a positive bias and I don't know if I can play that. Mentally I'm not there today as I still have a cold and I had a problem with my teeth on top of that. So I'm trying to just hang in there for now and regroup. Looking ahead to improving my trading next year. This year I started out losing a lot of money and I don't want to repeat that. I don't want to be too cautious but I don't want to be stupid either. I've got to just go after the good trades if I can find them. I know what it takes, it is just a matter of me doing it. We'll see about expiration...
Wednesday, December 14, 2005
The Dow was up 60 points on a little less than average volume. Advance/declines were positive. No trades. I am trying to stay out of the indices before Friday. Gold got clobbered and the XAU was down over 3 points. I should have shorted it the day it was up $10 and then sold off. I wasn't paying enough attention. GE was higher and the volume was good. I want to go out to January on this issue but will wait for some weakness. However that may not happen and the technicals are oversold. We'll see what happens. I want to do it though and will if I get a chance. I'm not feeling well, I have a slight cold. This in turn is affecting my view of the market. So I'm staying on the sidelines for now. It is probably the best thing to do. Looking to get long GE and that is about it for now. Will keep an eye on the XAU for the uptrendline. Options expire on Friday...
Tuesday, December 13, 2005
The Dow rose 55 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The Fed rose rates again and the market took off on the language of the statement. Which was bearish by the way. Go figure. I don't think there will be a trade for me now in the OEX or SPX but who knows, I do some crazy things sometimes. Perhaps if we get some weakness tomorrow but the risk here is a lot. I probably should look to go out to January with my GE idea and leave it at that. But perhaps I'll do something on a very short term basis if a signal comes through. GE was down a nickel on good volume. Gold sold off but the XAU hung in there. I'm going to wait for it to get back to the trendline. Overbought in all time frames. No need to be in a hurry there but that market has drawn a lot of interest and can't be ignored. Mentally I'm a bit tired from last nights dinnerfest and booze. Not the kind of situation for trading. I'm going to rest up tonight and just take it easy. That will help. I need to rest and I know it. I will try not to force things here but I get the idea that the market will run up into the expiration. Inflation number on Thursday. Trade number tomorrow. The smart thing to do here is probably just sit it out. But there will be some money to be made so..... But for now, rest.
Monday, December 12, 2005
The Dow lost 10 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Entering a tricky period here to trade. I think we need to see some weakness and then maybe some strength at the end of the week but it isn't set in stone and it is just a guess anyway. Things will have to unfold perfectly or I probably shouldn't try to do anything. The risk is high. I will probably try and go out to January on the GE trade. No guarantees there either but at least I'll have time on my side. Gold rose over $10 at one point but the XAU ended up selling off and so did gold. I think the rise is over for now but who knows? Cutting this short today, more tomorrow...
Friday, December 09, 2005
The Dow was up 23 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. I dumped the OEX calls for a heavy 70% loss. Not the way I'd like to end the year but it's possible that I won't make another trade this year. Doubtful but possible. I could have sold out at a 60% loss but held on and then just decided to get out and start fresh on Monday. Sometimes it's better that way. This trade was a winner and I turned it into a loser and that is unacceptable. My trading has been horrible this year but it's not time for the recap just yet. I think there will be an opportunity next week but I don't know if I'll be good enough to take it. GE was up early but then sold off some. I almost bought some calls there but my order did not get filled immediately so I canceled it. I am going to get some January calls there next week. Maybe. Gold was up another $5 today but the XAU was down. This market needs a rest and I will try and wait there before getting long. I missed this move and it my own fault. When I could have been making some good money there I was busy taking a 70% hit in the OEX. Stupid. Mentally I'm not feeling all that confident after todays loss. I will have to forget about it and move on. That is the only way to do it. I will try not to dwell on it and let it affect the next trade. I have an idea and I will see if it works out next week. I am not feeling good about what happened today but what can you do. The volume has dried up and it doesn't look like the market can get any traction to the upside. That said, I'm going to try and relax this weekend and get back at it on Monday. It is a tough game, a humbling game and it certainly can take a toll on you mentally. I'm trying my best and I need to get better. That is the truth...
Thursday, December 08, 2005
The Dow down another 55 points on heavier volume. Advance/declines were positive. My OEX calls are big losers. I probably should have just sold them today. The big cap stocks are getting hammered here but the overall market is strong. The OEX was down more than the SPX and that rarely happens. Bad news from Merck and Intel after the bell and that makes for a rough day again tomorrow. It pisses me off. But there isn't anything I can do about it. This trade is just a loser. I blew it again. Makes me wonder why I even bother with this shit. I am really feeling down on myself today and I don't know why. I need to keep it together and not let my emotions take over. It isn't easy. Gold and the XAU continue to climb and that is where I should have been. It doesn't make me happy. I pulled my GE order off the table. No sense in losing any more money at this point. I'm getting killed with the OEX trade. And it was a winner at one point. I should have listened to the market. When it sold off on Tuesday. That was the key. I saw it and didn't do anything. Now with Intel and Merck getting pounded, I'm doomed. This is a tough game. What more can I say. It just doesn't get any easier. It only gets harder.
Wednesday, December 07, 2005
The Dow lost 45 points today. It came back in the last hour and that is encouraging. The volume also contracted and that's a positive. Advance/declines were negative. I was expecting a pullback and if we can contain it here that will be good. If not my OEX calls will be losers like they are now. I should have dumped them yesterday and re-bought them back today but hindsight is easy. I'm not sure that they will work out now because they have not been able to take out the highs as yet and it doesn't look right now like they can. I tried to get some GE calls and this is strictly a short-term trade. I have a GTC order in and this is at most a 3 day trade right now. I don't know if it will get filled but we'll see. We should see some strength in the overall market in the next 2 days. That is my guess for here. Maybe not tomorrow but by Friday for sure. Gold continues to move higher and I just can't bring myself to get long when it has moved so far and is way overbought. But who knows what I will do. The XAU is now over 120 and the January calls I was thinking about are just too expensive. It is going to be tricky to get out of this OEX trade at this point. I may not get a chance at a profit. I think the GE trade will work if my scenario of some positive action takes place. My ideal situation would be a move to new highs but that is wishful thinking at this point. The Fed meets next week also and that will tone things down at the beginning of the week. Mentally I'm a little down for not doing the right thing but I still think there will be some moneymaking opportunities here before the expiration and I will try to keep in tune with what is happening to exploit them. I also do not want to project what happened last month into this one because I don't think I could get that lucky again so soon...
Tuesday, December 06, 2005
The Dow was up 21 points today but was much higher earlier and sold off at the end. This is not a good sign. Volume contracted going higher, another warning signal. Advance/declines were positive. My OEX calls are about back to what I paid for them and it doesn't look good off of todays action. The candlestick chart doesn't look good here either. I'm holding for now but I don't like the scenario. Tomorrow should be a down day. I don't expect a tremendous decline but time is running out and there is just a small window of opportunity, I believe. GE was higher and sold off to basically unchanged. The chart doesn't look good there now either but a play could develop. Gold was up a touch but the XAU rallied almost 3 points. Looks like a breakout and I did place an order for some NEM calls. Might be chasing it and that is deadly. Did not get filled but it is a market that really looks like it wants to go higher. Perhaps tomorrow if I get a chance but it's risky for sure. Mentally I'm tired and did not spend the day here and that has thrown me off of my routine which I don't think is conducive to good trading. I need to be in my office but I do have other responsibilities now and I am trying to juggle them. Focus and discipline must remain the keys and I cannot let anything deter me from my goals. The market requires the utmost attention and so that's what I have to give it. There are no shortcuts. I cannot let other things get in the way of success. That is the way it is. Anything other than my full attention is a waste of time and money. It's the truth, those are the facts and I must deal with them...
Monday, December 05, 2005
Early post today as I am leaving right at the market close. 45 minutes to go and we are off over 50 points. Advance/declines are almost 2 to 1 negative. I expected some weakness here early in the week and we are getting it. Unfortunately I think it could last until the close Wednesday and the OEX calls I purchased are already back to breakeven. I will try not to buy more even if they get cheaper. GE is higher today and I have an order for some calls there but I don't think it will get hit. Could bode well for the overall market but who knows. Might try to get them in the next couple days if they pull back a bit. Or not. Gold is up around $4 but the XAU isn't doing much. This is usually a negative sign. I need to wait here as we are just about as overbought as it gets. We'll see. Not feeling good about getting long right here for gold. Mentally I''m doing fine after a nice weekend and I will attempt to clear out my head some more today after the close. But the game looms large and I would like to end the year on a positive note. That said I do want to remain disciplined into the end of the year. It's not going to be easy but nothing is in this crazy game....
Friday, December 02, 2005
The Dow lost 35 points today on average volume, maybe a little light. Advance/declines were about even. Although the action implies higher prices, you never know. I'm still holding the OEX calls. I expect some weakness at some point next week but overall I think we'll see higher prices by the end of the week. After that, who knows? Gotta be careful. GE was down today and the volume picked up. Haven't bought the calls here yet and maybe I won't. Gold was down today as was the XAU. Really need to take a break here before I think about getting long again. There is a trendline about 5 points lower on the XAU and I guess I'll wait for that. Employment report was as expected and we did not get a lot of movement really. Not sure what to make of that but it is out of the way. Mentally I think I've got a handle on things here but I don't want to be too aggressive either way. I'm still on the year ending in 5 theory and so I want to be long into the expiration. Don't know if that will hold up but it should. I'm getting more focused and I can see that there is plenty of things to do here, marketwise. I need to stay on top of things regardless of the holidays. Summation index still pointing to the upside and I'll stay in tune with that. Trying to get enough rest and the weekend is here. I'll try and relax...
Thursday, December 01, 2005
Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 106 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The OEX calls I bought are in the black but they did not move that much. Disappointing. I am going to hold on for a while since there is just over 2 weeks until expiration. But this could be a tricky call. I might sell them next week and then buy them back in the final week. Way too far out to really know what is going to happen. GE did not move with this rally today and that is troublesome. Of course I still want some calls there so I feel good about that. But who knows? Gold rose over $6 today and the XAU bounced back over 3 points. Still overbought here but you cannot deny the move higher and I certainly want to participate. Gotta be careful though, there is way too much news coverage on this. Mentally I feel OK as my timing was almost right yesterday. But it is a dangerous game that I'm in here and I know it. Employment report tomorrow and we could head right back down. I've got to get some targets set up for this trade and also check the weekly charts. We are still overbought on the OEX so that's a problem going forward also. We did work off a little of that trin-wise in the last 3 days. Tough game and coming into the last month of the year. Tomorrow is important...
Wednesday, November 30, 2005
The Dow slumped today, losing 82 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were slightly negative. The market just could not get going anywhere but down. I bought some OEX calls. Could have gotten a better price but what else is new? I was surprised that they held up as well as they did because obviously I'm early. But I think it will work and I'll be waiting for Friday and the unemployment report. Getting short term oversold but not exactly there yet. We'll see what happens. I was so focused on this OEX trade I did not notice GE until the close and it was down. Might do something there too but I don't want to go crazy. Like I said before, sometimes December is pretty bad too. Gold lost some ground today and the XAU was down over 2 and a half points. I'm still looking at the Januarys but that is a long way off from here. I need to check the charts again on that. I'm thinking today could have been some end of the month lock-in the profit mode. Not sure. Still feeling as if money will come in to support the upside. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing fine, not trying to second guess my entry as of yet. But I still feel like I could have done better. Over two weeks left in this option cycle and anything can happen. But I can't expect things to be like last month can I? Perhaps we will re-challenge the highs on lower technicals. That's what I'm thinking...
Tuesday, November 29, 2005
The Dow lost a couple points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The market was higher earlier and gave it all back. I'm still looking to buy some calls if and when we get to the uptrendline. Could be tomorrow. I'll try and be ready. If we break the line, well we'll have to see what happens. Summation index still pointing higher. Gold was about unchanged and the XAU fell a bit. I would like to stay clear here but again, I'm not exactly sure about what course of action I will take. Gold is overbought and broke a sort-term uptrend line today. I'm still going to look at the January 120 calls. We need a pullback though. GE was basically unchanged and I'd like to get some calls when it gets to the trendline. So the gameplan for now seems to be to wait for trendlines to be hit. Mentally I'm feeling good and seem to have an idea of what I want to do here. Gotta follow through and pay attention. Discipline is always a key. Employment report on Friday, could be a mover. Looking forward to the next trade. That's what winning can do for you. Put you in the right frame of mind.
Monday, November 28, 2005
The Dow was off 40 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I do want to get some OEX calls but I want to try and be patient and wait for it to get back to the trendline. We'll see. I think there could be some more weakness later in the week but that is just a guess. Gold was up today to go over $500 for the first time in a long time. The XAU was down a bit however. Everybody is talking about gold and that worries me. Usually whenever the mainstream gets a hold of something it is over. I do want to get the January XAU 120's but I will not chase it here if I can help it. Tough call. We are way overbought and have been. I don't really want to do it now but we'll see. GE was down and it has a gap to fill but I'm not so sure here either because it too is overbought. Might do something for December but I haven't made up my mind. Very iffy prognosis for now but what can ya do? Mentally feeling good and there should not be anything in the way of progress at this point. That could change and usually does...
Wednesday, November 23, 2005
The Dow tacked on another 44 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Gotta get a pullback here. Everybody was bullish on CNBC today. I'll wait for a short term buy signal if one ever presents itself. GE was down a touch and might try that again too. The XAU lost over 2 points as gold was down. Not sure about this. Could be that the run for now is over but I might get long when the overbought condition is mitigated. I don't want to get ahead of myself here and will try and remain patient. I've seen some bad Decembers in my time also but this time I think we need to continue higher for the year ending in 5. I've harped on that all year but there is a reason. The reason is because it works until proven otherwise and right now it looks like it will work again. Mentally I'm tired, physically too because I did not get much sleep last night. Thanksgiving tomorrow and a needed day off. Light day Friday and I won't pay much attention. Monday should be the day back for everyone. Still looking to add to my gains this year. But I wouldn't call it a good year. Much to many mistakes for this to be considered good. More like lucky in a lot of cases. Need to improve and I will. Time to rest...
Tuesday, November 22, 2005
The Dow up another 50 points or so today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. Not seeing any pullback to get long. Way overbought and the positive holiday trend is upon us. I'll look for an opening but I'm leary of anything at this point. GE was down a few cents but the options didn't lose much value. Might want to play this again. Gold was up another $4 and the XAU gained a point. This thing is going parabolic and I am afraid to get long here but it looks like it could go on forever. It never does. I'll have to fight myself on this one. I'd like to get in another good trade before the end of the year as my confidence has returned. Mentally I'm doing better but I did have a tooth pulled today so I'm not at my best. Got some sleep last night and will do so again tonight. The markets should slow down the next 2 days with a shortened session on Friday. Thursday off for Thanksgiving. I'll wait for some weakness before committing to the next trade. I should really try and take it easy for the next few days and I will while looking forward to next week and the beginning of December. Gameplan to get long GE and the OEX on weakness. I'll try and stay away from gold. At least that is the thought for now. Could change at any time.
Monday, November 21, 2005
The Dow rose over 50 points on positive advance/declines. Volume was light but it is a holiday week. I took today semi-off as I wasn't home as usual. The market is still way overbought but it just doesn't sell off. When and if it does I will get long again. Same thing for gold and the XAU. They just keep going up. Technicals are overbought and overblown. I want to get long but don't know when this runaway train will stop. I still feel that there is more to go though. Feeling tired tonight and am having a tooth pulled tomorrow so that's it for today.
Friday, November 18, 2005
The Dow was up 46 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. It was a frustrating day. Most of that gain came in the last 15 minutes. A miracle did happen though. GE announced it was selling off one of their units and the stock soared on heavy volume. My options, that I almost sold for a nickel the day before, ended up with a 100% gain. Fluke. And even then is wasn't very good because I left another 30% on the table. But that was sheer luck to be able to even get my money back there. It still doesn't make up for selling the NEM calls but what can ya do? My OEX calls were not a great story either. They took off at the open and I should have just dumped them. I then had to torture myself all day as they fell and moved sideways. They always had a profit but the movement was killing me. I haven't traded the OEX lately and especially on an expiration day. They ended up showing a nice profit but that just isn't good enough. Between 450% and 500%. But I left at least another 120% on the table. Unacceptable. I had held them all day and another half an hour shouldn't have made a difference. It's the difference between an OK trade and a good one. I am disappointed with my actions today even though there were profits. My trading just has to improve. I should have had a gameplan of some sorts. I went in cold and that wasn't good. I also don't even know if I should have done this OEX trade but I went with my gut. Still, the results were lacking. I really need to get back on track. My focus is better but it just doesn't feel as if I'm doing the right things. My discipline is gone and I really need that. I am not happy with todays results. It could have been a really great week. I've blown a lot of opportunities this year. It could have been a banner year. Time to regroup and I think I'll be taking it easy next week, Thanksgiving holiday.
Thursday, November 17, 2005
The Dow rose 45 points today on OK volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. Almost at a breakout but the volume isn't great. One day left on the options. GE actually got a nickel bid at the end of the day as the market rallied. I'm hoping, which is stupid, that tomorrow morning is to the upside and I will sell at whatever I can. The OEX rose 4 points and the calls I bought are in the black. That could all change tomorrow at the opening. The risk is crazy and so is the trade but I went with my gut. We'll see. Gold was up another $7 dollars which is incredible. The XAU only rose a point and a half but the volume was good. I really blew that one. Hard to have confidence with trades like that. So we'll see what tomorrow brings. The market is overbought and staying there. There could be some expiration shenanigans. Anything could happen. I'm hoping for a squeeze and a breakout to the upside. If that happens tomorrows blog will be on a happy note. If it doesn't, more of the same. My ideas have been good but my tactics and timing have been horrible. Mentally, I'm about spent but I will do what it takes tomorrow to insure success, if it's possible...
Wednesday, November 16, 2005
The Dow lost 11 points with negative advance/declines. Volume was average. GE got a bid again but I did not sell. I still think we could advance here and I bought some OEX calls. It could be a crazy move but I have seen some crazy things today. I know that yesterday I said I would take it easy but I am a trader. GE could get a bid again. Or not. Gold soared today. I am kicking myself for not waiting another day. We got the biggest move I've seen yet. Up about $10 on gold and the XAU rose over 6 points on heavy, heavy volume. NEM was up $3, which I have not seen before. The calls I sold at a 90% loss yesterday are a 90% gain today. You just don't see things like that happen. You can't plan for it so I'm not beating myself up too bad. But we were at the weekly trend line again and it more than held. I will get long at that trendline until it breaks. We are overbought there also but simply remaining so. That's where you get some big moves and we are seeing that now. The OEX trade is highly risky with 2 days to go but perhaps a shorter timeframe will work in my favor. Oversold on a 15 minute basis and we'll see about tomorrow. Or it could blow out and I'll lose some more money. Not a lot of cash in this trade and I've got a gameplan. That gold move still blows me away. It looks like we will bust through the resistance and who knows where we are headed then? All this with the dollar stronger just doesn't make sense. But that's the market for ya.
Tuesday, November 15, 2005
The market was down around 10 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We were lower and came back a bit. We were also higher and sold off a lot. GE was unchanged and the calls I own don't have a bid with 3 days left and will be a total loss at this point. Great trading. Gold didn't do much but the XAU sold off 2 points and I dumped the NEM calls I had for about a 90% loss before I couldn't sell them at all. That was a stupid trade and never had a chance. I paid for it. That will not come back in 3 days. The volume has dried up there also which I should have recognized but didn't and so it goes. My confidence is shot. I haven't had a decent trade in a while and that could be it for me until next year. Yes, I know it is only the middle of November but I have got to get my mind back on track. The focus and discipline are missing. I think it is time to take a step back and I should have done it a few months ago. You just can't fool yourself in this game. Right now I don't have what it takes to be successful. I need to regroup I think. I do have some thoughts and ideas about where we go from here but... I can't go on losing money and that's the bottom line. I'm going to have to sit down and go over what has taken place in the last few months and go from there. Changes must be made. I think I have taken on too many trades. The commissions are eating into the bottom line also. I need a new strategy, with less trading and better trades. Easier said than done...
Monday, November 14, 2005
The Dow went up another 11 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. Not a good sign if you're long. GE was down and the options are almost worthless again. For some reason I still believe we could have a good run up into the expiration taking GE along with it. I must be crazy. Gold was down a little and the XAU lost almost a point and a half. NEM was down and the options I own are worth half of what I paid for them. Trouble. 4 days left and it will take somewhat of a miracle here. I haven't completely given up on them because I've seen some strange things happen expiration week. But I also know NEM could just move sideways here and that would kill me. The weekly has a good look to it but that doesn't necessarily mean this week. Tomorrow will be important for both issues. Mentally I'm fine, gotta lot of rest last night. No other trades for this week in my mind at the moment but that could change. I'm leaning towards the plus side. Inflation reports this week. I'm thinking they will be weak and the dollar will fall, supporting gold and driving the market higher. Could be wishful thinking. We'll see...
Friday, November 11, 2005
The Dow was up 45 points on holiday light volume. Advance/declines were positive. GE was up a few cents on light volume. The RSI on GE is near the top of the range and it is also up against the Bollinger band. The 50-day moving average looms at $35 also. Tough call. One week and I do not want it to expire worthless on me. That said, I think we will rally at some point next week. Gotta hope GE goes along with it. Not sure and don't like relying on hope. Gold was up over a dollar today but the XAU rallied over 3 points on light volume. NEM was higher but my calls are still losers. And there-in lies the rub. Overall the gold shares are higher but my particular one hasn't moved enough to show a profit. Should I have just stuck to the XAU, even though it is tougher to get filled on the orders because of the Philly Exchange? Hard to say. It is frustrating at times but I guess you've got to go with the vehicle that gives you a better chance for success. I notice the time premium is coming out of the XAU options rather fast with a week to go. That is another thing to take into consideration. NEM good still turn out to be a good trade. We'll see next week. I need to rest up now because it will be hectic next week before the slowness of Thanksgiving week sets in. The money to be made must be made next week.
Thursday, November 10, 2005
The Dow rose 93 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. You just can't keep this market down at this point. That said, we are way overbought and a pause is in order. GE rose big on good volume and there is a bid to my calls again. Nothing short of a miracle really. Six days left and maybe they can even get into the money. Not totally blown out to the upside on GE but you never know. Gold did not do much today even though the trade deficit hit a monthly record. The XAU opened higher and then closed off over a point and that isn't good. The NEM calls I bought yesterday have lost half their value. Tomorrow is important for the XAU to bounce back. If it doesn't then I'm dead with these and it just goes to show you that you NEVER chase a move. It just doesn't pay off enough. I should know this by now. Once in a while it will work but it usually doesn't. You get what you deserve sometimes. The XAU uptrend line continues to hold though so we shall see. I'm not feeling good about it though. It is a tough, unforgiving game but the rewards are sweet if you can make them happen. Mentally I'm trying to keep it together as usual. Feeling a bit tired but there is still a week to go in the cycle. Never did get a chance to get some OEX calls. We are up against a downtrend line that is quite a few weeks old. If we somehow get through it in the next few days those GE calls might actually work. Remains to be seen. Bond market closed tomorrow but we do need a rest. We'll see...
Wednesday, November 09, 2005
The Dow was up 6 points today on light volume again. Advance/declines were slightly positive. We were up much higher and sold off at the end of the day. No trades here. Gold was up $5 and the XAU rose over 3 points. I tried to buy some calls on the XAU 4 times but never got filled. The uptrend line is holding and it looks like I have missed out on the XAU trade. The calls I sold earlier in the XAU and NEM are both much higher. I could not wait around when I sold them and that is part of the game. Well actually they are not much higher in NEM and I bought them again at a higher price near the close. My thought is that the gold shares will rally here into the expiration off of that trendline. We shall see. I wanted to be long something because I think this is the first day of the move. I don't know. My trading hasn't been sharp lately and it is very frustrating. It is my own fault. I am not putting forth the proper effort. There are no excuses. I just haven't gotten it together and I'm not paying attention the way I know I should and the way that is necessary for success. No excuses. GE was up a bit but there is still no bid on the calls and they are dead. I might get lucky again and get a nickel for them if someone needs to offset a trade the other way. Doubtful. So we will see what the trade number does and I really need to be better at what I am doing or I may as well not do it. It is a most difficult game and the effort has gotta be there or it's useless. I know this and will have to do my best to remember that.
Tuesday, November 08, 2005
The Dow lost 46 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. This si a market that wants to go higher, I think. I would like to get long any weakness. I think Thursday could be the day. We shall see. The GE calls have no bid now and that looks like a total loss. Perhaps if we get a rally I can get a nickle for them but that trade just never worked. I have been wrong on GE all year. It's not a lot of money but it is a loser none the less. Gold was up a couple bucks today and the XAU was down fractionally. There is no volume here and the interest has waned with the rise in the dollar. We haven't broken the uptrend line yet and are sitting right on it. The trade number comes out on Thursday and I will possibly buy some calls tomorrow if the trendline holds up tomorrow. It is an iffy play here but it could work. I'm not sure what I am going to do. No blog yesterday as I left at the close to take another hike. And that too could be a problem because I've got to pay attention with just a week and a half left before expiration. Sometimes the balance of the market and the rest of your life becomes uneven. Right now the market must take preference. The time is now, one way or the other. I've got tohave the discipline to do what must be done here and now. It is the only way. OEX calls are a good idea I think. We'll see if I get a chance. XAU calls are not as certain, I don't think but I might give them a try anyway. Until next time...
Friday, November 04, 2005
The Dow was up 8 points on light volume. We are perhaps running out of steam here. Advance/declines were negative. GE was up a few cents but the options are dead in the water. Gold was down another 4 bucks today. The XAU was lower but came back to be off a half a point. The uptrend line continues to hold and I would like to buy the calls again. It had every right and reason to break the line today and it didn't. I think this is bullish for the XAU. If we get some weakness on Monday back towards the line I will buy some calls. NEM was higher but those options are still less than what I paid for them. But I'm out of that trade. Volume on the gold shares was light but the volume on the XAU was quite a lot and I will check Monday to see if the open interest expanded. I think it did so something is up. There are 2 weeks to go and I think this will work. That is why I originally bought them. But I could be wrong as gold has broken the support at $460. Perhaps it is a fake out move, I don't know. I need to check the economic calendar also. Employment came out weaker but the dollar still rallied and that hurt gold. Yields are up also which is impacting gold. We'll see what happens. I'd still like to get long the OEX but we're overbought and I want to wait for some type of pullback. Mentally I need some rest as the trading is taking a lot out of me. The focus is returning but the discipline really needs to be worked on. There is money to be made in the next 2 weeks. I need to pay attention and take my shots. Patience is needed also which makes this such a tough game. I'll try my best and hopefully will succeed. I need to rest and check all the charts over the weekend and that's what I will do...
Thursday, November 03, 2005
The Dow tacked on another 50 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were about even. We might be running out of steam here on a short term basis. We are right at the uptrend line though and that could hold for a while. Obviously I'm stuck without a clue. GE was up a bit but is not moving with the market so I will get screwed there. Gold was down 4 bucks and the XAU broke its short term trendline so I bailed out. I'm not happy. I would have liked to have the guts to hang on here but I couldn't. The volume wasn't there. I would still buy this back on more weakness and I will. The XAU calls showed a small profit, perhaps 30%. I dumped the NEM calls at the same time for a small loss, around 20%. There was less money in the NEM trade so it was minimal. I won't be buying this strike price back. So I'm stuck with a losing GE trade and am looking for a long entry on the OEX. Mentally I'm a bit confused but my overall thought was to bail out and wait to trade another day. I'm in need of a good nights rest and that should happen tonight. My trading is going nowhere at the time. I'm not pleased. The focus is coming back but the discipline is just not there. I've really got to get together. But it isn't easy. Tough game. Employment report tomorrow and it should be a mover one way or another. Until then....
Wednesday, November 02, 2005
The Dow gained 66 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We are going higher. The summation index has turned upwards. I will buy some OEX calls on any pullback, It will work. GE was up just a bit today and that isn't good for my options. I really need to see GE get going here. I don't think this trade will work. Gold bounced back $4 today and the XAU was up 2 points. But the volume was weak and we have stalled at a downtrend line. I need to see us get through this line on good volume to feel good about this. NEM was up a bit on light volume. That is the key. Volume. We really need it to pick up here for gold or this trade will be a loser. Employment number on Friday and that could hold the key.
Tuesday, November 01, 2005
The Dow was down 33 points on good volume again. Advance/declines were negative. The Fed raised rates another 1/4 point. It was expected. I want to get long the OEX here but I'd like to wait a bit I guess. I think we'll see weakness going into the employment number on Friday. But I'm guessing. GE keeps dropping and soon there won't even be a bid on what I own. Another mistake. Gold went down another 4 bucks today and the XAU was off a couple points. We are at the moment of truth again for the gold shares and I'm not feeling good about it. I did buy some NEM November calls today because we are right at the trendline there also. The uptrend lines either hold or they don't and if they don't I'm out. With losses of course but you've got to take the risk when you feel it's right. Gold itself is at $460 and if it doesn't hold, I'm dead. This is where it has held before so we will see what happens. I'm not feeling all that confident though. And perhaps I've got too much money wrapped up in this gold idea. Time will tell. The fact that GE isn't working either could spell disaster for me. But there are 2 and a half weeks to go. I think now it's a waiting game until Friday so we will see. Mentally I'm not putting forth the effort necessary for success. It is plain and simple. Sacrifice must be made to be on top of things and I haven't been doing that lately. The blue book must be read every day and I haven't been doing it. My discipline is non-existent. I can't go on like this and have to get it together now. It is hard to do and my mind is just not into it. But it has to be. It is the only way. I need to shape up right now or I'm doomed. The effort must come back. The dedication and desire have to return or it's all over. We'll see what tomorrow brings...
Monday, October 31, 2005
The Dow was up over 35 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We were up higher but sold off in the last hour. Could be end of month related but I'm not sure. GE was down around 20 cents after being higher also. This one really has to get going or it's over. It isn't moving higher when the overall market is and that is troublesome. I don't think this trade is going to work but I've said that before. Less than 3 weeks to go now. Gold was down big on Monday over $7. The dollar rallied. Somehow the XAU ended up in positive territory which is encouraging. But again it could just have been some end of month stuff. I'll know more tomorrow. Cutting this short today because I took the last 3 hours off today and I'm going out to dinner. More tomorrow...
Friday, October 28, 2005
The Dow reversed course again and was up over 170 points on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. This thing just keeps going back and forth. It will break out eventually and I'm thinking it will be to the upside. At least that's what I'm thinking today. GE got back a little today but the options I own are still losers. 3 weeks left and I think that this will be close. I probably need to get out when I can. I was early and haven't traded GE well all year. Gold was down a couple bucks, the XAU fell but then came back and was higher on the day. That is a good sign. The calls I own are still in the black. But anything can happen and we are close to the uptrend line. If that breaks then this trade is dead. But it is holding for now and that was the basis for this trade so I am holding for now. Anything can happen. I feel rested for a change and the weekend is here. I am taking part of Monday off to head up to the mountains and clear my head out. Mentally I need a break and will do some work tonight and then just call it quits for a few days. My discipline needs work and I have to get back to consistent reading of the blue book. These things must be done for success. It doesn't just happen. You've got to make it happen. I'm working on it...
Thursday, October 27, 2005
The Dow lost 115 points and the volume was good. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. The market cannot get going. Summation index now pointing down. I can't figure it out and I don't know what to say. GE held up rather well but my options are losers and it doesn't look like that will change anytime soon. The XAU gapped open higher and lost all of its gains. Gold was up a couple of bucks. Negative action for sure. Tomorrow is important to see if the recent lows hold. My calls are still making money but that could change too. I'm tired today and need to get a good nights sleep tonight. My mind is a little slow and that just won't do. I need to get back to the basics and discipline, discipline, discipline. It's the only way. Pressed for time again today...
Wednesday, October 26, 2005
The Dow lost over 30 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Looks like more sideways action for now. Can't seem to break out one way or the other. Who know, maybe we'll start to drop again. I have no idea. GE was down and the options are losing money and not moving. Gotta see something happen there soon but at this rate, nothing will happen except for more losses. Gold was down a little today but the XAU lost almost 3 points. My calls are still profitable but barely so. I had the order ready to sell them but did not enter it. That could have and probably will be a mistake. It was a pretty big turnaround today in the XAU, almost 5 points. And not in the direction that I needed. I still feel that the trendline will hold but it won't with another day like today. Perhaps I am wrong. It wouldn't be the first time. But sometimes you've got to believe in yourself. I maybe could have sold out today and then bought them back cheaper, later. But that's just a guess. It is a tough game, an unforgiving game. Mentally I'm tired and I haven't been feeling well but I'm doing better now. Will have to see what the next 2 trading days bring. That is the key for now...
Tuesday, October 25, 2005
The Dow lost 7 points on increased volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were down a lot more but came back in the final hour. No pending trades there. GE was down again and the options are not doing any better. I'm holding for now but I might have to think about where to take the loss. It is only Tuesday but this has got to start to get something going to the upside. Gold was up over $7 today but the XAU didn't do that well, only up a point and a half. The calls are doing good but it looks like it wants to head back down here. I'm holding on for higher prices in the next few weeks but that could be wrong too. Probably should have some type of stop-loss order in but I don't. My mind is tired. Not feeling well lately. Need to get some rest. Still believing it will not be a down year but the gains could be muted. They will be. Nothing more for today.
Monday, October 24, 2005
The Dow blasted off up 170 points today. The volume wasn't all that great but it was a Monday. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. The McClellan oscillator should be moving into positive territory today. I think the decline is over but I don't expect a straight up move from here. I do think we will rally once the Fed meeting gets out of the way. GE was up a little but my options are still under water. Plenty of time to go but I don't know. Gold was down a couple bucks but the XAU remained strong and was up a couple points. Those calls are in the black. Perhaps should have sold them here because we are short term overbought. But I'm waiting for higher prices and I think that will happen in the next 4 weeks. I could be wrong though and there-in lies the problem with trading. Ya just never know. I'm not feeling well physically so I am cutting this short today. Mentally I'm doing as good as can be expected at this point.
Friday, October 21, 2005
The Dow lost another 65 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive though. Perhaps the move was expiration related. GE was down a few cents and the options I own are losing money. The are now cheap enough that I have the inclination to buy a few more. Could be a good move if we hold here and rally. Or it could be stupid. I don't think that I've done well in GE this year. I'll have to check the charts and the records. Gold bounced over 6 dollars today and the XAU was up almost 3 points. So far the trend line is holding. My calls there are profitable and there is plenty of time to go. The technicals are oversold too so this could turn out to be a decent trade. Or not. I get the feeling that a base will need to be built here and that could take a while. But I think that over time, as long as the uptrend line holds, this will be a winner. Physically I'm tired as I did not get a lot of sleep last night. That is affecting me mentally as my mind is groggy. Luckily there was not much thought for todays session on my part. I'm glad the weekend is here, I need to rest...
Thursday, October 20, 2005
Volatility has returned. Perhaps the lows won't hold after all. Or it could be just an expiration phenomenon. The Dow lost 133 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. Crazy game. GE was off over 50 cents and the November calls I own are now losing money. I'm still a believer though. Long time relatively speaking there. Gold was down a couple bucks and the XAU actually fell hard and got to the uptrend line. I purchased some XAU November calls. It is now or never for this trade. My thinking is that the trendline will hold. If it doesn't, I'm out with a small loss. Hopefully, if I don't do something stupid. I perhaps could have gotten a little better price on the entry but you never know with those crooks on the Philly exchange. I don't really like trading there but I wanted a broader scope than just NEM or ABX this time. We'll see. Had to do it though because it was what I was waiting for. Oil seems to be breaking down here and perhaps gold will too. I don't know. It kinda has the feel like it could roll over and this trade will be a loser but we will have to wait and see. Another question is if the market itself will hold up here. Tomorrow will be interesting...
Wednesday, October 19, 2005
Well I thought that the recent lows would not hold. I was wrong. The Dow opened lower, bounced off those lows and gained over 125 points. It was the best day in a while. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. I'll now say the decline is over. I don't think we will go straight up but I do think the year will end positive. GE was up around 40 cents but my call options aren't doing much. I think this trade will work too. Gold got pounded today, down over eight bucks at one point. The XAU was down over 3 points but recovered. I almost bought some XAU calls for October when it was down there but did not. There are only 2 days left on them. Also looked at some OEX calls this morning but did not do that either. Just did not take the chances but in retrospect should have. I'm not a short term trader by nature though. I will get long when the XAU gets to the trendline and it got close today. Might take another week to hit it. We'll see. Mentally I'm trying to focus. I did read the blue book today and that's a start. I need to get a good nights sleep again and perhaps that will happen tonight. Otherwise I guess it's just a waiting game for now.
Tuesday, October 18, 2005
Today we lost over 60 points on increased volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We are going to head back down and test the recent lows and it doesn't look like they will hold at this point. I had a chance to get short early this morning but did not take the chance. I should have. The only good thing I can say was that I at least dumped the calls yesterday. The losses would have been greater if I had held on. GE has held up well lately and when this thing comes back GE could be a relative strength leader. Or we could just completely fall apart and it won't matter. I still believe in the year ending in 5 theory and I think we will be positive by December 31st. Gold was down a bit and the XAU lost over 2 points. I need to see where that trendline is because we could get there shortly. Hopefully it will hold, time will tell. I probably will not attempt any more trades this week but ya never know for sure. Mentally I feel good about my view of the market and it has been right on lately. But I need to make some money with these ideas. I'm not too tired and there isn't much else on my mind now that the dentist is out of the way for now. I'm going to have to get back into the good habits required for success. I'll try and start tomorrow with the blue book. I've got to find the time...
Monday, October 17, 2005
The Dow was up 60 points today on positive advance/declines. Volume was average. I sold the OEX calls I had for a loss. 20% and 5% respectively. I just could not afford to take the risk that tomorrow would be a down day and I would lose a lot more. My mistake here was that I had too much money in one trade. Overleveraged. My entry was a bit early and even though we have moved up over 100 points since the purchase it hasn't made any money. Of course I will be kicking myself if we open strong tomorrow, which is a possibility with good IBM numbers after the close. But what can ya do? The overall market has lagged the Dow the past two up-days and that isn't a positive sign. The volume hasn't been as strong going higher either. So I'm out and we'll see where I go from here. Still holding some November GE calls at breakeven. Want to keep them for a while. The XAU popped today for a couple points but I am going to wait for the XAU to get to the uptrend line if I can. Inflation report due out tomorrow and that will move things also. Sometimes you just have to get out of things that aren't working, no matter how much you want it to be right. I could not take the chance that tomorrow will open way down and my calls would be clobbered. Perhaps I will buy them again cheaper before the end of the week. But my work says that there is no great rally coming up now. I could be wrong. Maybe tomorrow I'll be glad I sold today. We'll see. Mentally, I'm OK but my mind is on the dentist tomorrow. Otherwise I'm fine but still need to get back in the habit of doing the day to day things that work for me. Like reading the blue book every morning. It needs to be done. Discipline cannot be emphasized enough.
Friday, October 14, 2005
We got a weak bounce today with the Dow up 70 points. Volume wasn't all that great but the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The daily candlestick chart looks constructive with a doji buy signal but that could change. I still am holding the OEX calls at a loss. Probably need to get out on Monday if we have any strength. I'll check the other numbers this weekend. Sold the GE October calls at around a 60% loss. Earnings were fine but the stock couldn't get moving that much in this environment. I guess it's better than taking a 100% loss but it still sucks. Gonna hold the Novembers for a while. The XAU sank early as gold was down but they both came back later on. Still going to get long the XAU or some gold shares when it gets to the uptrend line. Seems like there is interest in buying the gold shares on any dip. But for now I've got to focus on the overall market and specifically the OEX. I don't want this to turn into a big loser too. Mentally I'm tired and drained from the week. I could use a break. I really probably need to step back again and go over just exactly what is going on here. This is the toughest game in the world and you just have to be mentally prepared to deal with it. But for now it's time to rest and regroup for next week.
Thursday, October 13, 2005
The Dow was basically unchanged today on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative though. We are extremely oversold. The calls I purchased are losing money. I expect a snapback but there is a chance this whole thing could collapse also. Tomorrow is important. GE announces its earnings and there is an inflation report. I expect anything at this point. I will get the hell out of these OEX calls if I get a chance. I will also exit the October GE calls if I can. When the indicators say one thing and the market does another then I have nothing to go on that is legit. I need to recognize this tomorrow and act accordingly. Gold did not move but the XAU was down big at one point but came back to cut its losses. I think it is a function of the Refco firm having trouble and hedge fund liquidation to meet cash calls. I will get long gold when it gets to the trendline, either for November or December. But right now the focus has to be on GE and the overall market. Mentally I'm a little tired and worried about a lack of a bounce here. My mind is focused and I will be up early tomorrow but the market will do what it wants. Interesting day ahead. Could be really good or a disaster. All eyes on GE.
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
The Dow lost another 36 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative. I bought some OEX calls. I got some early and then bought a couple more later. My work tells me that we have to bounce here unless we crash. I don't anticipate that but you never know. We'll see tomorrow. But you have to step up when the time comes and I think the time is now. The OEX moves fast though and I'll have to stay on my toes. Bought some November GE calls also. Earnings on Friday and we'll see about that also. Missed on the XAU puts. Had an order in early and it didn't get filled. The XAU ended up down around 2 1/2 points. I do not like missing the move but I was concentrating on the OEX I suppose. Gotta get better than that. I will probably wait for the XAU to come back to the uptrend line and get long there. Don't know, not sure. Only thing for certain is that I missed this down move. Mentally I'm doing fine and really think the OEX trade will work out. Feeling confident about this trade. Have done the work and unless something out of the ordinary happens, it will be a good one.
Tuesday, October 11, 2005
The Dow was up 14 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative though. I'm thinking of getting some calls tomorrow as a bounce is due. I will look to buy weakness. At least that's the plan for now. But the internals have been weak. We do have a divergence on the McClellan oscillator and some other indicators are oversold. I'm pretty sure that this will work. Short-term anyway. GE was down around a quarter today. Gonna wait for the earnings on Friday. Gold didn't do much and the XAU was down a bit. Would like to get some puts here and did have an order in today but it wasn't filled. Not sure about this one but the candlestick chart looks toppy. We'll see. Hard to short it here if the overall market is about to rally. Mentally I'm tired and need to get some rest. Feeling good about buying some OEX calls here. Feels like the same call that the puts that would have worked about a week ago. Maybe do it tomorrow. Trade number on Thursday and inflation report due out on Friday. Could get interesting. Gotta be careful and remain disciplined to be successful. Will try not to chase anything.
Monday, October 10, 2005
The Dow lost over 50 points and volume was pretty good for a Monday. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. I'd like to get long before Friday. Some OEX calls might be in order. If we et a non-conformation from the McClellan oscillator, I'll be purchasing some. That remains to be seen. GE didn't do much and the earnings are on Friday. We'll see how it acts going into that. Probably will hold on until then. Not sure though. Could be a sell the news event. Gold didn't do much today and neither did the XAU. Not a clear signal here but I did put in an order for some puts today. Did not get filled. Not completely sure that I want to trade this anymore for now. We'll see. I've got to check the charts and the economic calendar. Mentally I'm doing fine today. My mind is clear and ready to go. Opportunity is here until expiration. I've got to take advantage of it. Not a time to be lazy.
Friday, October 07, 2005
The Dow gained 5 points today and the volume was lighter than lately. Advance/declines were positive but the new lows were higher than the new highs. Mixed signals. I would still like to get long here with some OEX calls but am not sure. Employment came out and was stronger than expected. That sent the dollar higher but gold rallied also. The XAU was up almost 3 points. I bailed out of my XAU puts for around a 25% profit. The profit was much better a couple days ago and I should have sold then. I'm not happy with that trade. Will have to check things over the weekend to see what to do next. My trading leaves much to be desired. GE rallied again on good volume and the calls I own that were worthless at the beginning of the week are now back where I bought them. This trade now looks like it might work if the earnings are decent next Friday. Did not step up and get some November calls when I had the chance earlier this week also. My order did not get filled. Looks like I missed it. Maybe not as I might just buy some at a higher price after looking at things this weekend. Mentally I need a break because my trading has sucked lately. I'm glad it's the weekend. But this is a hard game to play and it requires a hell of a lot of work. I am trying to keep it together. But for now it's time to rest...
Thursday, October 06, 2005
The Dow lost 30 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We were down 100 points and bounced back in the last half hour. Oversold here but the action has been so negative I'm afraid to get long. Still might do it tomorrow on any weakness. Employment report early. GE had a positive announcement and was up 80 cents on heavy volume. There is a bid for my options again. Perhaps missed out on the November calls as my order wasn't filled yesterday. Wasn't sure on that one. Gold was up over $5 and the XAU rose over 3 points, gaining back what it lost yesterday. My options are still showing a profit but this could backfire. Tomorrow will be important. Might just have to get out. I need to make some decisions. Volatility has returned and this used to be when I was at my best. Perhaps missed a chance to get long the OEX today but we'll see. Gotta believe that I can do the right thing. Hope to tomorrow. Mentally I'm fine for now. But need to read the signs. Might have missed my chance with the XAU profit. Probably have to be up for the open tomorrow and take it from there. Could be a long day. Must be mentally prepared. Ideas seem to be working. Need to check the McClellan oscillator tonight. Might not confirm the buy signal. Tough game.
Wednesday, October 05, 2005
The Dow sunk over 120 points. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. I thought we would get a little pullback here but this is more than I expected. Something is going on here and I don't know what. GE was down a bit but the options don't have a bid anymore. They're dead I think. Unless we get an amazing turnaround. But when it's this negative I don't know what to say. Sure wish I would have stepped up and bought the puts yesterday when I had the chance. But you can't go on what you wish you would have done. That's a losers game. At least my idea was right. Might try and get long before the employment report because we are going to be blown out to the downside. But I don't want to step in front of this. Might do it though. Gold did not move today but the XAU was down over 3 points and the puts there are looking good. Looks like gold could be heading lower here. Want to take the profit soon though as we are looking for support in the near term. Don't know for sure but I'll check the charts later tonight. Don't want to hold them forever and may sell them and then buy them back cheaper. Had an idea about getting long Pfizer but the market action here is very negative. Mentally I'm trying to do what it takes. But this is the toughest game in the world. Cannot forget that. My mind is coming back to the discipline it needs but tomorrow is another day. Gotta do the right thing. Will try and get long at the trendline perhaps. More work needs to be done tonight...
Tuesday, October 04, 2005
The Dow lost about 95 points on expanding volume. That is never a good sign. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. Expected some pullback and got it. I don't think this is the beginning of something big but who knows? Best case scenario here would be to build a base. GE was down again on better volume too. The calls are just about dead. I suppose I had better sell them and perhaps go out to November if I'm still a believer in this trade. Not sure now. Earnings a week from Friday. Don't think I can wait that long. On the bright side, gold didn't move today but the XAU was down 2 points. My puts here are in the money. I don't own a lot of them but at least the ideas are right. Really should just get out of the GE trade and move on. Looking to hold the XAU puts for a little while. Two and a half weeks to go there. Mentally I'm trying to come together. Thinking that this will be a good month. Gotta have the discipline and do the work. Easier said than done. Almost bought some puts this morning and should have. I am possibly developing a short term trade timeline. Would have worked today but the commission costs could be prohibitive. We'll see.
Monday, October 03, 2005
The Dow lost over 30 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive though. I still feel we are heading down for a while here. Until the employment report at least. Need to get some negatives on there to work off the overbought situation. GE was lower today and this trade is just not gonna work. Volume picked up to the downside and that is never good. I should probably just take the loss and go out to the next month if I feel this trade is worthy. Gold lost a few dollars and the XAU fell a couple points early but then came back. Volume was average. Not sure what to do here. The options are slightly profitable. I don't have a stop-loss order in yet. Had I placed one today, I would already be out of the trade. I still feel that this one will work good before the expiration but who knows? Mentally I'm trying to keep it together. My mind still hasn't gotten back to the discipline necessary for success. I really need to work on that. It is essential to the cause. I should probably cut back on the trades until my mind is right. I'm working on it. I think there is some good money out there to be made this month. We'll see...
Friday, September 30, 2005
The Dow up about 15 points on the last day of the month. Volume was average and the advance/declines were positive. I expect a pullback at the beginning of next week. It will happen. Overbought and need a break. GE was up 2 cents and that too should fall early next week. My options are going nowhere. The employment number on Friday will be the mover, I believe. We'll see. Gold was down a few bucks and the XAU lost a point and a half. Volume was light on the gold shares. I need to be careful here. The put options are showing a slight profit. I will have to determine some downside targets over the weekend. That's if all goes well. Still three weeks on the options. Mentally in a slight funk due to outside influences but it goes with the territory. Getting better on the routine. Might be back here over the weekend. More work to do though. Not a lot of thoughts at the moment. Need to break for a couple days but it will be tough. The market never sleeps...
Thursday, September 29, 2005
The Dow was up about 80 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Overbought now here for sure. Would expect sideways action into next Fridays employment report. GE was up 15 cents and the options I own didn't move. We'll see about this one. Gold was up near the highs today and I shorted the XAU. The XAU was up a couple points and I fear now that I am early as we have come out of what could be a consolidation implying higher prices. The volume was good for the gold shares. Then why did I do it? It looks like there could be a divergence on the RSI. Higher prices and a lower RSI. Time will tell but I don't know. I also read something about the fact that the XAU is ready to turn around. I'm hoping that the article did not influence my decision today but it may have. You can't go by the bullshit that you read somewhere. You gotta go with the technicals. They were hyping gold again on CNBC so that is a contrary sign for me as well. End of the month tomorrow and don't know what that means really until it happens. Perhaps funds will lock into some gold profits. Perhaps they will add gold to show they own some winners. Overbought there though so we'll see. No specific target yet but I guess I can hope that the trendline breaks. Good Luck. Mentally I'm doing better with a good nights sleep and I'm getting back to the basics that have worked in the past. Like reading my blue book in the morning to get in the right frame of mind to trade. We'll see how it goes.
Wednesday, September 28, 2005
Dow up 16 points on average volume again. Advance/declines were about even. We now have a short term overbought signal. I don't think that it is worth shorting. Gold was up 6 bucks and the XAU rose over 2 points. I would like to short the XAU or NEM but I just can't bring myself to do it yet. The volume keeps going in to the upside but we are overbought and have been for a while. The more prudent play might be to wait for the pullback and then get long. We'll see. GE was down a few cents on average volume. Options aren't moving. This trade isn't looking too good at the moment. Mentally I didn't get a good nights sleep so my mind isn't exactly where it needs to be. I am working on the day to day discipline that I used to have but is now elusive. Have to get it back to be successful. There are no shortcuts. Doing the best that I can but it isn't enough at this point. Have to correct that. I'll check the weekly charts tonight and see if a gold play is warranted...
Tuesday, September 27, 2005
Dow up around 12 points on negative advance/declines. Volume was average. Working off the oversold condition and going nowhere. Not a good sign. Greenspan blabbered today. End of the month coming up. GE was up around 35 cents today. The options didn't move. Not sure about this one but the timing on the entry was off, obviously. Gold sold off a few bucks and the XAU was down around 2 points. The puts didn't move much and the calls held their value, which is strange. Implies higher prices. I don't know what I want to do here now so I'm staying out until I can figure it out. Uptrend line is still intact but we are right there. Tomorrow could be the difference. Possible flag consolidation on the charts but still overbought by some readings. Otherwise, mentally I think I'm starting to come back. Don't know for sure but I'm trying. Patience and discipline would help. Gotta do the work everyday too. Not a problem. Thinking that maybe if I get it together that October can be a very good month as September should have been. We'll see...
Monday, September 26, 2005
The market gained about 25 points today on OK volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was kind of weak. This could just be a bounce. Maybe we need more time to build a bottom. The GE calls I own are going nowhere. Looks like a loser but there is a lot of time. If it can go sideways here instead of down I think it might have a chance. Gold sold off early and then came back to be up a couple of bucks. The XAU gained over 2 points but came off its high. I would like to short something here with the gold shares but not exactly positive about it. We are overbought. Still 4 weeks to go on the options. We did bounce off of the short-term uptrend line. I guess we'll see if we take out the recent highs tomorrow. Tough call. Mentally I still need to get the day to day discipline back. The focus is returning. But this is the toughest game in the world. Only your best effort will suffice. Anything less just isn't worth your time and you'll get killed. The competition is real. And a lot of it is with yourself. I'm trying my best under the current circumstances. Gotta get it together. It's the only way.
Friday, September 23, 2005
The Dow lost a couple points and volume contracted. Advance/declines were slightly positive. Waiting for a hurricane to hit the Gulf coast. Oversold and I feel a bounce is coming. Gold was down a couple bucks and the XAU lost a point. Can't seem to sell this index off. I'll get long at the uptrend line, which is coming up soon. Have to be careful though. GE up a few cents on light volume. Just waiting there. Want to get out if it shows a profit. Might have been a little early there. Mentally my mind has other things on it. Not the best for trading but it is Friday and the weekend has arrived. I'm starting to get more into the flow of things after many months of indecision. We'll see what happens. I'll try and relax for a couple days and be back at it on Monday.
Thursday, September 22, 2005
The Dow gained 44 points today on heavy volume again. Advance/declines were negative though and new lows have just overtaken new highs. Not a good sign going forward but I bought some GE October calls today. Why? I think we are getting oversold here both short and intermediate term. My indicators show that at least some type of bounce is due about now. I haven't risked a lot of money here and I really want to go out to November. But maybe I bought too many as the commission cost is over 10% of the trade capital. We'll see what happens. Could be wrong and wouldn't surprise me if it was. But again, we'll see. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU was down a point. NEM held in there pretty good and there seems to be people to buy the gold shares when they fall. Might have a flag forming on the daily chart implying higher prices. Or it is building a minor top. Don't know. I still wanna get long there if we go sideways for a while. Mentally I'm concentrating more but need to be a little more calm during the trading day. Habit and routine are coming back but not where I want them yet. Working on it.
Wednesday, September 21, 2005
The Dow lost over 100 points today on increasing volume. Advance declines about 2 to 1 negative again. Summation index pointing down. Weaker second half of September. I'll look to buy some November calls at some point. Gold back up a couple bucks and the XAU rallied over 3 points. Not sure what to do here now. It is just staying overbought. Could simply just keep going higher. I do want to get some sort of puts in here though. Maybe. Gotta see what goes on here. Extra week on the options makes timing a little less important longer term. But who knows. Trying to keep it together and not do anything stupid. There isn't any rush I suppose and I don't have a decent signal yet. But the money is out there. Mentally I'm coming back but it seems now I'm chomping at the bit and that may not be the right attitude to have here. Discipline needs to be adhered to. Patience, focus. I'm trying...
Tuesday, September 20, 2005
The Dow lost about 75 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative again. This all plays into my scenario of a weaker second half of September. Not that I'm going to be right about that or anything but I think that will be the case. Hopefully it will set up for buying some calls for November, if the year ending in 5 theory holds up. Gold was down and the XAU lost over 2 points. NEM was down over a buck and the puts I didn't purchase are well in the money. It pains me but I must keep going. I'm now looking to get long at the uptrend line, which for NEM is at 43.50. For the XAU it's 105 roughly. I don't know if the line will hold but we'll find out I guess. Mentally I'm coming back to where I have to be as I come to grips with my life as it is now. There is much to be worked out and considered here though. I'm trying my best but it ain't easy. Well worth it though. My focus is coming back and I have begun to get it together. I'm also looking out to November for some GE calls but there is still some research necessary before I do that trade. Not much else. The Fed raised rates another quarter. Language stayed the same. Looking to take it easy for the rest of today. A little work to do later is about it. I canceled the overnight order for NEM puts. Did not come close to getting filled. Another missed opportunity but the ideas are right on and eventually I gotta believe that they will pay off.
Monday, September 19, 2005
The Dow lost 84 points on pretty good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Could be post expiration action or who knows? Gold was up over $7 today. The gold shares rallied but then fell off to finish negative. I wanted to get some NEM puts but was too slow once again. My ideas are good but the trading leaves much to be desired. I'm hanging in there. I still think this might work but not sure. We do need a little rest in gold. Fed announcement tomorrow. Probably more of the same but I really would like to get short something here. Way overbought on all the gold shares. I think it's gonna work but it is a matter of if I'll get in or not. Might leave an overnight order just in case. But then might not want it. And so it goes. The most difficult game in the world and I'm immersed in it. But lately, I'm just not up to the task. It seems like an endless crack in the record here. Really have to get it together now and I will. Can't keep making up excuses or what have you. It's always been up to me and always will be. I need not look any further. Getting back to the trade, today was a one-day reversal for the gold shares and portends lower prices or at least some sideways action. I'm going to look to get short and hopefully take a quick profit. Probably will leave an overnight order now that I think about it. That's it for today.
Friday, September 16, 2005
Dow up over 80 points on expiration heavy volume. Advance/declines positive. Gold up another 5 bucks and NEM up on heavy volume again. The XAU up to resistance on heavy volume also. And so it goes. The move in gold should pause here but if it doesn't then there will be no chance to profit from it. It has turned parabolic at this point. I blew it and it feels horrible. But I can't dwell on it. Could be expiration related too but I knew that was possible. Could have made the OEX calls trade yesterday and of course that would have worked well too. When you know it and you don't do it there is nothing to be said. What can you say? I am in a trading funk. I need to snap out of it. It is painful. There are no excuses. I can try and place the reasons elsewhere but it all begins and ends with me. I have got to somehow get it together. I have just let so much money just run through my hands that it makes me sick. I can take solace in the fact that my ideas and market prognosis is correct but without the money to go with it, it is an empty feeling. What more can I say? The weekend is here and there is still a lot of work to do. I need to focus and get back to what has made me successful in the past. It has got to be done now. I cannot not will not continue like this...
Thursday, September 15, 2005
Dow up 13, good volume, negative advance/declines. Gold up $5 and the XAU continues higher as does NEM. I did briefly put in an order for some OEX calls then came to my senses and canceled it. Might get up early and try it again tomorrow morning but hopefully not. I read some of the previous posts and it's obvious that I am completely out of it. Definitely missed out on NEM and the XAU. Pathetic but you gotta just move on. I will hope for a pullback and perhaps get long October calls. The move is real I believe because the volume is there. But the % move from here won't be as good. I blew it and it's time to try and move on. What it shows you is just how much profit there is out there to be had. Plenty. The ideas are legit. The price moves are real. Just gotta get my mind back into it. It all comes back to focus and discipline. I haven't had them lately. I will try and get them back. But who knows. It hasn't happened yet. I need to get back into my routine and put my teeth problems and personal life behind. Gotta be done. Having trouble at the moment. Need to correct it. Not much else to say. Expiration tomorrow...
Wednesday, September 14, 2005
The Dow lost over 50 points today. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. I'm trying not to do anything stupid here. Only 2 days left and I would like to get some calls but I will probably just sit it out. I should have gotten some NEM calls yesterday. Had a chance to get the same ones I sold earlier very cheap. But I wasn't paying attention. I was distracted and that won't cut it. I was in the dentist for the final 2 hours today and that's not good either. The XAU was up 4 points and NEM soared about 2 bucks on very heavy volume. It was an opportunity missed and you know how I feel about that. There is no excuse. I just wasn't good enough this time around. It pains me to think that my reasoning was right on and I didn't make a fucking dime off of it. I must be a complete moron because I know what it takes and I still haven't brought myself to do it. I'm hanging around in toothache pain or hiking around in the woods. Hiking has it's place but not at the expense of trading. I know what happened and I'm still trying to adjust to my situation in life as it now is. It is harder than I thought it would be. My focus and concentration are gone. The discipline is non-existent. I can't do it like this. Gold has been going higher, the volume is there and I am twiddling my thumbs. I must be an idiot. It's one thing to see it coming. It's another to do what you must and make some money off of it. I can't believe how bad I've gotten. Have I done all this work and put in all this time for nothing? It seems so at this point. But I do know things will change and I will get my shit back together. Gotta. Now where do we go from here. I think it would be best to stay out right now. My mind just isn't able to function properly. I need to start over maybe and take it slow. But the markets are relentless and that's how you've got to be too. I'm going to step back and regroup. I have to. I don't want to go in lamenting about all I've missed here. Time will heal that but it is painful now. There is no easy path in the game. An honest look at what has just occurred is necessary and vital to future success. Really, it is impossible for me to trade under the current circumstances. Changes must and will be made. I know what has to be done and it is up to me to do it. There is no other way...
Tuesday, September 13, 2005
Dow down 85 points today on average volume. Advance/declines over 2 to 1 negative. Summation index might be rolling over. Will have to wait for the reading. Gold down around 4 bucks and the XAU off a couple points. This now looks like a beginning move to the downside that could last a couple weeks at least. There is a negative divergence on the RSI. I'll wait it out or perhaps take a short position. Fed in a week. More inflation data on Thursday. Probably the prudent course of action here would be inaction. With my mind not totally focused and my mouth still hurting I should step aside. I'm not sure I can do that but I'll try. It would be the right move at this time I believe. I am too scattered and not in the right frame of mind to be at my best in the game. Sidelines for now...
Monday, September 12, 2005
The Dow was up 4 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. No conviction one way or the other here. No OEX trades on the horizon. Gold didn't move much and neither did the XAU. Gold shares did sell off early and then came all the way back. Not sure what to do here they are overbought but could have another upleg before expiration. I'm looking to get short but not sure if I'll risk it. Would like to get in some type of short-term trade here. Mentally I'm having more trouble with my teeth and that takes away from what I have to do here. It would be wise to just step aside here. Don't know if I will. Not much else to say. Still haven't returned to the routine that is necessary for success. Its gotta be done. I'm working on it and will make it happen. There are no other choices.
Friday, September 09, 2005
The Dow was up 82 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We continue higher and I guess it will play out that way going into the expiration. Gold rose about 3 bucks and the XAU was up over 2 and a half points. I had an order to sell my NEM calls in overnight and it got filled at a small profit. But NEM kept rising and the profit would have been decent but I was already gone. You can never predict what the markets will do. Who knew there would be such a big move there today. I had thought there might be but I was afraid of a loss. I basically blew it again. My mind and thinking are not where they need to be. My ideas have been correct but I haven't been able to cash in on them. I know what's wrong but I haven't taken the necessary steps to fix it. But it has got to be done. I hate missing opportunities and poor trading results. The focus and discipline are not there. I mention those two things a lot. Focus and discipline. They are important, very important. They have helped get me to where I am today. Gotta get my mind right. Anyway NEM was up big on heavy volume and I think higher prices are coming but a pause is needed. ABX did not rise much and it has been leading the gold shares. Perhaps some puts can be purchased next week. The RSI is also at the top of its range where pullbacks occur. I'll have to check the economic calendar for next week to see what's coming up. Might be able to trade off of that. The XAU is overbought also. But it is the weekend and I need to rest and not beat myself up over the recent events. The ideas are there, it's the trading that needs to be worked on. I'll try and do what it takes but it won't be easy...
Thursday, September 08, 2005
Dow down 37 points with volume good. Advance/declines negative. Due for a pause but I still think the trend is higher and perhaps will purchase some OEX calls here shortly. Gold up over a dollar and the XAU up over a point and a half. NEM was higher but didn't do much for my calls. Need to sell them at a loss tomorrow. It has to be done. Mentally just trying to keep it together. One week on the options and there will be opportunity and risk as well. Don't know what I'll do at this point but would like to try something. Gotta find the focus somehow. Toughest game in the world and can not be played half-assed. Need to step back, I think and reassess just what the hell is going on here with my trading. That could be the wisest thing to do. Hard to say. Still thinking of some OEX calls for the final week. Or perhaps I'll just get out and stay out. Indecision is a killer too. Obviously my brain is not up to the task at this point. I need to listen to myself and maybe read over these blogs this weekend. We'll see what happens tomorrow...
Wednesday, September 07, 2005
The Dow up 44 on better volume. Advance/declines barely positive. Probably need a rest but who knows with this rally? Gold didn't move much and neither did the XAU. I put in a limit order for the NEM calls to sell but didn't get filled. Need to bail out, it ain't gonna be a winner. I'm tired and need to rest. I should just stay out at this point because my mind and heart just aren't into it. It's a damn shame really. I've missed the rally. I can't get motivated to do the work necessary. My mind is elsewhere. There is no point in even trying to trade at this point. The discipline is gone. I am pre-occupied somewhere else. Better to take another loss and re-group at this point. I do know that I can't trade in the mental state that I'm in now. It just won't happen. I need to turn it around but don't know when that's going to happen. Better to pull back and get through this period. It's all I can really do.
Tuesday, September 06, 2005
Market zooms to the upside over 130 points as of now. This post is early due to time constraints. Advance/declines are over 2 to 1 positive. I had a feeling they would run it up in the beginning of September and I think that will prove to be correct. I am lame for not acting on it. That has been the story lately. Gold isn't moving, the XAU is down and the NEM calls I bought are losing money. This trade will most likely be a loser too. I am in a bad way at the moment. Perhaps the best course of action at this time is just to scale back or get out. It is obvious that I don't have the focus right now to do what is necessary to be successful. There is no hiding from the truth. The discipline just isn't there. For whatever the reasons, opportunities are passing me by. There isn't much else to say or do.
Friday, September 02, 2005
The Dow lost 12 points today on light pre-holiday volume. Advance/declines were negative. Employment was less than expected. Oil pulled back a bit. No OEX trades here but perhaps next week. Gold was up a buck, the XAU basically unchanged. I canceled my open order for more NEM calls. I'm gonna have to sit back and see from here. Still think it could work but might switch to the XAU. The calls I bought are unchanged. My thinking is higher prices are coming and I would like to see some pull-back first. Not sure, will reassess over the weekend. Again, I need to get the focus and discipline here for the next 2 weeks and beyond. I'll do the work over the weekend and be ready to go Tuesday morning. There will be no excuses. I'm going to make it happen. It's up to me and I know that. I'll try my best and that's all I can do.
Thursday, September 01, 2005
The Dow lost over 20 points today on heavy volume again. Advance/declines were positive though. I think we're headed higher. Still digesting the effects of hurricane Katrina. No OEX trades for now but I will be leaning to a positive bias. Gold jumped $9 today. Of course I'm disappointed to miss this move. However I'm chasing it. I canceled my open NEM orders and purchased the next strike price. I think this is the beginning of a big move. I could be wrong and perhaps should have waited for a pullback. The volume was heavy, a good sign for continued positive action. I will perhaps get some XAU calls on a pullback. The index was up over 3 points. Employment report tomorrow and if it's weak I expect continued weakness in the dollar. I should have been on this earlier. I have not had the focus and discipline necessary for success lately. It is my own fault. There is no one or no thing to blame. It all falls on me. That's just the way it is. I accept that and will try to move forward from here. My mind has got to get back to where it needs to be to play this game. There are no second chances and the market doesn't care what I think. It's a very difficult and tough game to play. But if you're gonna play it you better be ready. No excuses. I've got to get it together. Actions speak louder than this blog. It's up to me...
Wednesday, August 31, 2005
We got the beginning of a rally today with the Dow up around 70 points. The volume expanded, which is a good sign and the advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We are heading higher. OEX calls can and should be purchased. They will run it up in the beginning of September. Gold was up over $3 and the XAU gained over 2 points. The volume wasn't that great but the price movement was in the right direction. I have some open GTC orders for NEM. Don't know if they will be filled, perhaps I have missed this move. We'll see. Markets are still coming to grips with the effects of hurricane Katrina. I really need to get it together and pay attention right now. There is money to be made. My mind has been slow since the last bad trade but that needs to be set aside and trading must begin anew. Mentally I've got to get it together now. Employment report on Friday. Gotta get long something I believe. Trying my best but need some sleep here too. Tough game and I've got to be ready for it.
Tuesday, August 30, 2005
I did not get here yesterday due to time constraints. It was an up day on light volume. Today we were down around 50 points but it was much lower earlier. Oil touched $70 a barrel. Advance/declines were negative but not so much so and the volume picked up a little. I think we need to get higher here. The beginning of September should be OK I think. We should have fell off a cliff today and we didn't. I think it is setting up for a rally. Gold got killed, down $7 today. But the XAU did not sell off much, a little over a dollar. I'm thinking there is nobody left to sell. I have an order in for some September NEM calls. We'll see. My plan is really to get some October gold calls at some point. But I could be wrong. Last week of summer so next week should start to get interesting. Employment report on Friday. Mentally I'm recovering from oral surgery and all is going well for now. I'm feeling better. Market-wise I need to focus again and cannot let outside influences interfere with my trading. Discipline must be adhered to. The next three months of trading will be key for the year. No more stupid mistakes. There is money to be made out there. I've gotta do what it takes to be successful. It's well worth it.
Friday, August 26, 2005
The Dow lost another 53 points today on light volume again. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. No rally and no bounce. It is not a positive time for the markets. No trades for now in the OEX. Gold was down over a dollar and the XAU was down a touch on light volume. Hard to get a gauge of where the markets are headed with the summer light volume here. Beginning of September could be key. I'd like to get long gold again next week. I'll have to see how it pans out. Mentally I'm not where I should be to make a serious play. I will get there though. Discipline must and will return now. It has to. Still kind of out of it after the oral surgery but that is no excuse. The weekend is here and I will rest up for next week and try to position myself before Fridays employment report. Gotta get it back together and get moving forward again.
Thursday, August 25, 2005
The Dow gained 15 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are still oversold and I'm expecting a bounce. But who knows? Gold didn't do much, up a tad. The XAU gained 3/4 of a point but the volume was weak. I had oral surgery today and am not feeling up to par. I will not trade during this time but I am looking. Not feeling ready to take on the game so I really shouldn't. Gold is looking interesting to me. Perhaps at least a bounce is due there also. But I've got to rest. So that's what I'll do.