Wednesday, September 30, 2009
The market is trying to make up its mind here as the Dow lost about 30 points on end of the month good volume. Advance/declines were negative. The market dropped hard early and then came all the way back. That isn't really negative action. Summation index still heading lower. I'm in a bit of a quandary as to what exactly to do here. I'm still leaning to the downside but I may wait until the employment report actually comes out before I make a trade. We'll see. Gold had a good day, up $15 on the futures. However the XAU only managed a 2 point gain. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume. The dollar was weaker and oil had a good day. So what should I do with the gold shares? If my downside scenario proves correct, there will be a cheaper entry point for a long side trade. If not, it looks like I'll miss it again. Mentally I'm a bit confused as to what to do here but I'll be giving it a lot of thought tonight and tomorrow. Could this just be another sideways consolidation before we move higher again? Or is it really going to be a correction? These questions have to be answered. Staying on the sidelines is also an option but the least desirable. There's absolutely no money to be made doing nothing. Of course you don't lose anything either. More tomorrow.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
No follow through to the upside as the Dow lost 47 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about even. I'm still leaning to the downside once we get tomorrow out of the way. I'm looking at the OEX puts again before Fridays employment report. That is the game plan for now. Anything could happen however. Gold was flat today but the XAU rose 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up a buck and change on average volume. The dollar was up a bit. I don't know what to make of the action today in the gold shares. End of the month positioning perhaps? I still like the gold shares and perhaps if we get them down again I'll give them a try. I'll be looking at the GG October calls. If my prognosis for the stock market to fall here happens, then it will give me a chance to pick up some of the gold share calls. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. I'm trying to remain patient here and it is working so far. I'll need to check the summation index later tonight. I get the feeling that I am going to put on some sort of trade before Friday. What that trade is, is the question.
Monday, September 28, 2009
A Monday rally as the Dow gained 124 points on what looks like light volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. Are we going to move to new recovery highs this week? I wish I knew. I'm still leaning to the downside here and may purchase some OEX puts again. Wednesday would be the day to buy them unless we just rocket up from here. Employment report out on Friday. Beginning of the month positive money flows start this week too. I haven't decided what to do just yet. Gold gained a couple bucks today, while the XAU was up 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were flat today on light volume. They all were higher early. The charts don't look all that promising for the upside here but I still like the gold shares. Not just yet though. That could change by the end of the week. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. There is some indecision here on my part. I'm going to have to let the market tell me what to do. I don't trust light volume rallies and that is what today looks like. The summation index hasn't turned around yet either but that doesn't mean it can't. Also rallies that are sharp and appear out of nowhere are more of a bear market phenomenon. So there are some crosscurrents happening as far as I'm concerned at the moment. I'm going to try and stay patient.
Friday, September 25, 2009
The Dow continued to the downside with a loss of 42 points on average volume today. Advance/declines were negative. We are short term oversold here and I would expect a bounce early next week. It's what happens after that bounce that will determine what we are dealing with here. Summation index to the downside but we will have to see if it sustains that. I think it will. But we'll see. Gold lost $7 today and the XAU fell 2 1/3. ABX and NEM had fractional losses, while GG led the way with a loss of 7/8. Volume was average. Oversold on the gold shares as well but I'd like to wait to get some calls here. I'm looking at the GG calls for October. Might be a tough play though if we really get an overall stock market decline. I'll consider things over the weekend and go from there. Mentally I'm doing OK. I was able to let this week go by and that is a plus. I'll have to check the charts over the weekend and come up with something for next week. Previous declines have been met with sustained buying to new recovery highs for quite some time. We'll have to see if it is different this time. The longer term down trend lines stalled the rally here. Perhaps that is the difference. I think if we get a light volume rally early next week it could be a shorting opportunity. That's why I'm holding off on the gold share calls. We'll have to wait and see how the week unfolds. For now it's a couple of days off to rest and regroup.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Continuing a bit lower today as the Dow lost 41 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. The overall market was weaker than the Dow today and that's a switch from what's been going on. The summation index will now be trending lower. Getting to short term oversold. I'll vote to short the rallies now. The longer term down trend lines look like that they will hold for now. Gold lost $15 today as the dollar showed strength. ABX and NEM had fractional losses, while GG dropped over a buck. Volume was heavy in ABX, average for GG and NEM. I might get some gold share calls next week. Getting oversold on a short term basis. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well or long enough. So is the rally over? I think it is but I haven't been on target with much all year. I'm going to let Friday pass and then get some type of game plan for next week.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
A little downside for a change as the Dow lost 81 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. The Fed said nothing new and we rallied but then the bottom fell out as everyone headed for the exits. 80 some points isn't much though when we've come so far already. We are up against those long term down trend lines. We'll see if there is any follow through tomorrow. Gold lost a buck today but sold off in the aftermarket. The XAU dropped 5 1/4. ABX down 1, GG off 1 1/2 and NEM fell 1 1/2 all on average volume. The dollar bounced around today and oil was weaker. I still like the gold shares and will be keeping an eye on them here. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept longer. One day isn't a trend but this could be the beginning of something more sustained to the downside. It is long overdue. But we will have to wait to see what happens. It isn't easy being patient as I've said before. I really think that the best course of action for me here is to wait until next week to attempt to do something. What that something is, remains to be seen. I'll look for downside follow through tomorrow.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
It was back to the upside as the Dow gained 51 points today. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive on average volume. A waiting game on the Fed announcement tomorrow. I don't expect any surprises but you never know. Gold had a good day as the dollar lost ground. The precious metal gained $10, while the XAU rose almost 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around a buck on average volume. All were higher early and pulled back which was the exact opposite action of yesterday. I still like the gold shares but will let this week pass. That is the game plan for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Not much else to say here. We've had quite a run-up in the stock market and at this point it feels like it will never go down again. But we all know better than that. The summation index is about as high as it gets. It will not continue higher forever. We'll see about the Fed tomorrow.
Monday, September 21, 2009
The Dow lost 41 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. No news to speak of really. Waiting for the Fed announcement on Wednesday. No OEX trades on the horizon for me at the moment. I would expect the market to head lower but I've been expecting that for a while. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU dropped 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. They all were off more than a buck early. The dollar gained a bit of ground today. I'd like to get some gold share calls at some point here. Exactly when is the question. A new option cycle has begun so I could just wait it out this week. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It's been a pretty slow Monday. The Internet was down here early but I had no open positions, so it wasn't a factor. There is a G-20 meeting this week but those meetings usually have a lot of talk but no real action. I don't expect any revelations from the Fed announcement in a couple of days either. So I guess it's time to be patient and look for something that presents an opportunity. I think it could be in the gold shares if there's a pullback. Time will tell.
Friday, September 18, 2009
The Dow gained 36 points today on expiration Friday. Volume was average while the advance/declines were positive. How long can the rally last? Summation index heading higher but it's about as high as it gets. Overbought and staying there as well. I certainly don't have the answers at this point. Rolling into the October option cycle. I'm staying on the sidelines for now. Gold lost 3 bucks and the XAU dropped 3 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all off around a buck on average volume. The dollar was a touch higher today. My thinking is that my next trade will be in the gold shares. That's the idea for now. Could change of course. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. So I booked another sizable loss this week and am moving on. Or trying to at least. The trading is never easy but that is the nature of the beast. We are just about at some long term down trend lines in the major indices and we moved back up here pretty fast. I cannot believe that we are just going to continue higher here through these trend lines without some type of consolidation or pullback. But I have been wrong on my market prognosis a lot this year. I'll look things over this weekend and take it from there. For now it's time to step back for a couple of days and clear my mind heading into next week. A break and some rest should do the trick.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
The Dow took a pause today as it lost 7 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was expiration heavy. It has been quite a run and who knows if it is over? However we are approaching some key down trend lines on the major indices and the summation index is about as high as it ever gets. So we'll see what happens. We certainly have gone quite some time without some sustained selling. Gold lost around $6 on the futures. The XAU dropped 3 points. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM was off over a buck. Volume was pretty good. The dollar lost more ground but not much. I think my next trade will be in the gold shares. It was a valid break out to the upside in my opinion. GE closed lower today on very heavy volume and perhaps it will lead the way lower from here or at least sideways for the stock market. GE has been very strong as of late. Mentally I'm moving on from the latest horrible trade and looking forward to getting it right the next time. You take your shot and move on in the game. It hasn't been a good trading year as I've stated here numerous times. There's still the 4th quarter to go and I'll try my best to get things right. Expiration Friday tomorrow.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
The market relentlessly continues higher as the Dow gained 108 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Very overbought and staying there. Everything that I thought was supposed to happen, didn't. Summation index heading higher but we are getting up to where it should turn around again. But who knows in a market like this? I'm on the sidelines and staying there for now. Gold moved higher, up $13 as the dollar sets new lows for this down leg. The XAU gained 3 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on good volume. I suppose I should have just paid attention to the gold market. I will from here on out. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Is the rally here an expiration related event? We'll find out in time. Often times September starts out one way in the first half and then does just the opposite in the second half. It's half over today so we'll see what happens from here. Not much else to report from here. Losing will do that. It's a confidence game a lot of the time. Right now I have none. I'll have to regroup. When the technical signals don't work, then it's time for me to step aside. We'll see how the week closes out.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Continuing higher as the Dow tacked on another 56 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and volume was average. I could not wait any longer and sold the OEX puts I had for an 85% loss. It was not a good trade to say the least. Even though I expect tomorrow to be a negative day, these puts were so far out of the money by now that it would not have mattered. Unless we get some type of collapse in one day and I doubt that. I almost bought some other OEX puts today but I figure with the loss that I just took, it might be best to lay low for a while. Tomorrow should be a down day and I can't fathom any other scenario. Gold was up $5 and continued higher in the aftermarket as the dollar got even weaker today. The XAU gained 4 points. ABX was up 1/2, while GG and NEM both gained over a buck. GG led the way. Obviously I should have gotten some gold calls on that first 2 day pullback but I was preoccupied with the OEX trade. Mistakes are rampant for me in this trading year so far. GE had another huge up day on heavy volume. Is GE returning to bellwether status? Who knows. Mentally I'm not feeling so hot. Losing trades will do that. But you've got to move on. Today would have been the day to get some OEX puts. I really believe that. That fact that I did not represents yet another thing that needs to be worked on. 3 days left before expiration and I am quite convinced tomorrow will be weak. My work points to it. But after just having booked a loss, I didn't have the guts to try again. The battle is always with oneself. Right now I'm losing that battle.
Monday, September 14, 2009
An interesting expiration Monday as the Dow gapped down at the open only to come all the way back and end the day up 21 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. My OEX puts are almost worthless. I'm still a believer of a decent downside move by Wednesday but it won't be enough to save these puts. It's painful but it's all part of the game. Overbought and staying there as the usual positive expiration week bias takes hold. It's just another mistake of the many for me this year. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU fell 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on lighter than lately volume. The dollar didn't do much today. I'm laying off gold for now but I still like it longer term. I will note that GE was up pretty good percentage wise today on heavy volume. It's lending support for an already overbought market. Mentally I'm doing OK. Not feeling good about another losing trade though. My prognosis was wrong and there was a chance of that happening as usual. Perhaps I should have waited for a better technical set up. I think what happened was that after a good trade I felt that whatever I did next would work just as well. Obviously that was not a good line of thinking. I'll have to guard against that in the future. In retrospect, I could have just held on to the OEX calls that I bought and made even more of a profit. Hindsight is always correct. On to Tuesday.
Friday, September 11, 2009
A quiet 9/11 as the Dow lost 22 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. I am still holding my OEX puts at a loss. Normally I would have dumped them already but I firmly believe that we will be heading lower at the beginning of next week. Probably not enough to make the puts I have profitable but perhaps I can get a better price to cut the loss. It is going to be expiration week so we'll see what happens. We are still short term overbought. Gold was up $10 and closed above $1000. The dollar hit a fresh new low today. The XAU gained 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on average volume for lately. The gold shares should have done better today. At least that was my thinking. I still like them longer term and will be looking to buy if we get some weakness. Overbought here though so I'm trying to be patient. Mentally I'm doing OK could have slept more. So we head into expiration week and I'm holding a losing OEX trade. Summation index heading higher and I am bucking that trend. Not a good thing. I'll check things out over the weekend but there is a glaring negative divergence on the RSI for the major averages. I believe we will break down from here and it will be bigger than is expected. It may not happen next week but it should before the month is out. Or things will turn around and we will head to 10000 on the Dow. But I don't think that is the scenario ahead. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. For now it's time for a break.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
The market remains in rally mode as the Dow gained 80 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. My OEX puts are dead. Summation index heading higher and the market closed on its high. Overbought and staying there. You can't fight that. Another mistake in trading, perhaps because I had just done a decent trade I hurried into the next one. 6 days to go on these options but I'm not optimistic. Gold was flat today but the XAU rose 5 points. The gold shares had dropped 10% in 2 days. Volatility has returned there. ABX, GG and NEM were all up a buck or more. Volume was extremely heavy in ABX but not much for the others. I suppose that I'll go back to thinking about getting long the gold shares. May have to go out a couple of months though. I don't think it would be prudent to try the September cycle at this point. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. So we head to the end of the week and I'm in a losing trade that is running out of time. Not the best of situations. I'll have to see how tomorrow unfolds and go from there.
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
The rally continues as the Dow gained 50 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. My OEX puts are losing money. I canceled the stop loss order and it would not have been hit today. Perhaps my prognosis was wrong, at least that seems to be what the market it saying here. Today was the day to purchase the puts in my opinion and I almost bought some more. But sanity returned and I'm taking enough risk here as it is. Perhaps I should have payed more attention to the move in GE, which sometimes is a leader. It has gone up big for 2 days on heavy volume. We'll see. Gold was down around $3 on the futures and continued lower in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 4 1/2. ABX announced a restructuring deal which will dilute the share price by issuing more stock. It fell 2 1/2 on extremely heavy volume. GG was off 1 1/2 and NEM fell about 3/4. Volatility has returned with a vengeance to gold. I'd be thinking of getting long GG here if I wasn't involved with the OEX trade. Perhaps. The dollar fell again but gold didn't rise so we're getting some crosscurrents here again. Mentally I'm doing OK. It's looking more and more that this OEX trade was not timed properly and it may be prudent to just get out. We are about short term overbought here though. Timing is always key with the indices and I believe that I was a day early. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, September 08, 2009
The Dow continued to the upside by 56 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. I suppose I should have held those OEX calls for another day. But it doesn't matter now. I bought some OEX puts today. It is a risky trade but they all are. The summation index will move to the upside today but I think that it will be a sideways move before we head lower. I could be wrong. The option premiums on the puts remained higher compared to the calls for the OEX. We'll see what happens. Gold was up a couple bucks but opened much stronger. We were over $1000 but pulled back. The XAU gained 1/4 after being up 7 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses after being much higher. The volume was heavy and it was a one day reversal to the downside. The dollar was weaker but gold could not hold its gains. Oil was higher as well. I don't know what it all means but I will get long the gold shares as we snap back to the breakout point. It won't be easy though. I'll have to go over things later today. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. So now it's the OEX puts to keep an eye on. The stop-loss order is already in. This may not have been the best set up technically but I believe it could work until the market proves it otherwise. That could be as soon as tomorrow.
Friday, September 04, 2009
The upside continued today as the Dow gained 96 points. Advance/declines were almost 4 to 1. The volume was light however. It could be holiday related or it could be that this is just a bounce. My thinking is that it's the latter. But who knows? We'll find out going forward. I did sell the OEX calls I bought yesterday for a 60% gain. Finally a trade that I did some things correctly. We could move higher on Tuesday but I'll be focusing on getting short. Gold lost a buck but it has been quite a week. The XAU followed the overall market and was up 2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on lighter volume. If we get some type of pullback, I'll try the gold share calls. The breakout is for real in my opinion. There is also a chance we just go straight up for the September option cycle as well. I really needed to be quicker there and perhaps more focused. The dollar lost some ground today. The employment report showed less job losses than expected which helped the overall market. But I get the feeling a lot of participants were leaving early for the last long holiday weekend of summer. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept better. A decent trade helps things going forward as well. I'm sticking with the prognosis that the decline isn't over and I'll be looking at the OEX puts next week. Plenty of things to look over during the long weekend. For now it's time for a break.
Thursday, September 03, 2009
Kind of a bounce today as the Dow gained 64 points today, most of it in the last hour. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive, while the volume was average at best. I expected a rally at the end of the week and hopefully this is the beginning of it. The trend is down though in my opinion. That said, I bought some OEX calls today for the bounce. They are slightly in the black and I will sell them tomorrow or Tuesday depending on the action tomorrow. I don't think that today is the beginning of some kind of sustained rally but I could be wrong. Gold continued higher on the breakout today, up almost another $20 on the futures. The XAU was up 7 1/3. Regardless of what happens tomorrow it has been quite a week for gold. ABX and GG were up 1 1/2, while NEM rose 2. Volume was heavy again. I am leaving in an order for some calls in case we get a pullback. Any weakness in the gold shares can be bought. We are almost at $1000 for the precious metal and that may be a spot to take a rest. But it looks like we are going nowhere but higher at this point. Mentally I'm feeling tired, have not slept well 2 nights in a row. So it's the OEX calls for now as the focus. I really think I'll be dumping them tomorrow because the summation index is still pointing to the downside. But if tomorrow is a huge up day, who knows? I'm hoping that the gold shares will give me a point to get in and make some money. Trying not to lament that miss too much. There's always other trades but that one looks to be the best of the year so far.
Wednesday, September 02, 2009
The Dow lost 30 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We traded sideways for most of the day. Summation index still heading lower but I do expect some buying in the next 2 days before the long weekend. If we don't see some rally then things are going to get a lot worse than I think. So we'll see what happens. Gold broke out to the upside today, gaining over $20. The XAU rose 12 1/3 points. What a move! ABX up 3, with GG and NEM better by 3 3/4. It was incredible to say the least. Volume was heavy, that tells me that this is for real. I was trying to buy calls all day and never got filled. I probably should have just gotten in at the market. I'm leaving in an order overnight again. This could be one of those rare times where you just want to jump on board and see how far it goes. The money is flowing here and you can't argue with that. Yesterdays volume in ABX should have been a tip-off. Oh well, there's still going to be some money to be made there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough. So now that we've had the gold breakout, it would be prudent to wait until it takes a rest in order to get long. But it may not and that's what makes it difficult. I'm going to try something though. However, if we get a bit of a rally in the OEX in the next few days, I'll be looking at the puts there. Looks like summer is over and perhaps volatility is returning to the markets. On to tomorrow.
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Well the decline has begun as the Dow lost 185 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is pointing down and any rally can be shorted in my opinion. Perhaps that is what I will wait to do. I expect that we will rally later this week and that could be a place to try the OEX puts again. Unfortunately my previous OEX put orders were not filled. But I get the feeling that there will be another chance during the September option cycle. Gold was up $4 today and the XAU fell 2 1/2. Gold rose despite a good day for the dollar. ABX was up 1/3, GG down 1/3 and NEM was flat. Volume increased, which was interesting considering the results were mixed. I'm leaving in the open order for the ABX calls for now. Todays rise in gold could have been the flight to safety play or the beginning of the month money flow. I'm not exactly sure so caution is the word. Mentally I'm feeling OK. My idea for the OEX was solid and I still feel that there's a play there in a few days to the downside again. I am just about as certain that we will rally before the end of the week. Long weekend coming up as well. But it's only Tuesday. We'll have to see how things unfold from here.