Wednesday, December 31, 2008
The Dow gained 108 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. End of the year but at least we continued higher, adding on to yesterdays gains. We are short term overbought and a pullback should be expected. Gold was up over $10 today as commodities had a good day all around. The XAU tacked on another 2 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains. Volume wasn't that bad considering. I still like the gold shares. GE was up 40 cents on light volume. My calls are just hanging around. Looks like I may start the new year with a loss. Mentally I'm holding up as my computer has tanked and is out for repair. I will have to hook up the back up tomorrow when we are closed for the New Years holiday. It is a hassle for sure but I am trying not to let it bother me. Looking back on the trading year it was a profitable one but I was so busy today I haven't figured the details. I'll post the results within the next couple of days
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
I am back now on a different computer. The gold shares had fractional losses on light volume. I still think gold could do well going forward and continue to wait for a pullback there. GE was up just a touch on light volume. My calls are going nowhere and it looks like I may have to take the loss there. We'll see how the week ends up. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected. My computer is acting up and I will try and fix it tomorrow. The game is tough enough on its own. External problems such as with the computer or the data feed just add to the problems. No need to stress out but it is a hassle. It will be fixed eventually and trading goes on regardless. On to the year end tomorrow.
About 5 minutes to go and the Dow is up over 180 points. Advance/declines are 3 to 1 positive and the volume is light. Expected an upside pop and we are getting it. Doesn't mean much at this point. We'll have to see what follows. Gold was off $5 and the XAU is off about a point. I am having computer problems that make typing almost impossible. I will try and continue the blog on another computer later today.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Another downer to start the week as the Dow lost 31 points on light volume. We were down a buck fifty at one point. Advance/declines were negative. Just a couple of days left in this years trading. It looks like we're in a holding pattern until next year and then perhaps nothing happens then either. But we'll see. I do expect some type of pop to the upside within the next 3 days according to the technicals in my view. Gold was up about 5 bucks today and the XAU rose 3 1/2 points. ABX and GG tacked on a buck and NEM was up 2. Volume was good in the gold shares as international unrest helps its cause. The money is flowing into gold and that has been a theme for the past 2 months. GE lost 30 cents on light volume. My calls continue to lose ground but I'm holding them for now. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Todays action suggests that perhaps we will move higher near term. However with light volume and another holiday week in store, nothing is for certain.
Friday, December 26, 2008
Another holiday light volume snooze fest as the Dow tacked on 47 points. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Not much to make of todays movement. Gold was up over $20 and the XAU gained 5 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher by around 1 1/2. Volume light here as well but the gold shares had more interest than anything else. Geo-political tension between India and Pakistan could be the reason. GE was down a bit on weak volume as well. My calls lost more ground as time decay takes hold. In retrospect, I should have let this week pass before making the trade. Mentally I'm just taking it easy. Perhaps things will get a bit more interesting next week.
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
The Dow gained 49 points in a holiday shortened session. Volume was extremely light and the advance/declines were positive. The trading here doesn't mean much. We are in holiday mode. Gold was up about $10. The XAU was flat. Volume weak. GE lost about 1/3 with the same weak volume. My calls are now a bit under water. Mentally I'm doing OK. Not much else to say here on Christmas Eve. Time to relax.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Down 100 points on the Dow today with holiday light volume. Advance/declines were negative. Short term oversold and expecting a bounce. Half day trading tomorrow and then we get the Friday after Christmas. I don't expect much to happen for the rest of this week. Gold lost $9 but the XAU gained over 3. ABX, GG and NEM all higher on light volume. The gold shares are still attracting interest. That's something to be watched. GE was up 1/3 on light volume. The calls I own are about where I got them. I don't expect much to happen here either for the rest of the week. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well enough. Time for an extended break from the game. I'll keep an eye on things and run the numbers but the rest of the week is a wash in my opinion. The major players won't be back until next week or next year. So it's time for a break and then start up again on Monday.
Monday, December 22, 2008
It was a negative start to a holiday shortened week as the Dow lost 59 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. A last half hour comeback limited the damage as we were down over 200 at one point today. We are short term oversold but in a week like this you can't make much of anything in my opinion. I think we drift higher to sideways here but that is just a guess. Moves in either direction can get exaggerated in an environment such as this. Gold was up around $10 today but the XAU dropped 3 points. ABX, GG and NEM all down around a buck or so on light volume. If and when the gold shares get oversold again, I'd be a buyer of the calls. We'll have to wait and see what happens there. GE lost 1/3 on light volume. I had an overnight order in for some January calls and it got filled. I could have gotten a better price but I'll take it. The game plan is to hold the calls for an expected rally at the beginning of 2009. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK. I'm expecting this GE trade to carry over and be the first trade for next year. However adjustments will be made if necessary. I don't expect much this week as I said earlier. So we'll see what happens.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Expiration Friday as the Dow lost 25 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. Once again the breadth has held up here and portends higher prices ahead. So we'll see. The overall market was stronger than the Dow also. Summation index still rising. I am still looking for calls. Gold futures lost $20 but the XAU rose almost 2 points. ABX and GG had fractional gains while NEM rose almost a buck. The dollar was much stronger today as volatility has returned to the dollar index. I still like the gold share calls for January here at some point. GE was up 40 cents on pretty good volume. There was no downside follow through for GE and that's a plus. I did put an order in for January calls but it wasn't filled. Perhaps on Monday I'll try again. However there is always a possibility that we move sideways. Mentally I'm doing OK. It's holiday time for the markets and it's been quite a year. My thinking is that things will slow down for the next couple of weeks. I still want to get positioned for the beginning of next year. That is the dilemma. So I'll see how it goes. For now it's the weekend. Check of the charts of course and attempt to come up with a game plan for next week. I really need to work on the focus and concentration aspects of what I'm doing. If I can manage that then I think everything else will fall into place. Time for a break.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
The market fell down today, off 219 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. However the breadth of the market hasn't deteriorated as it did in the past couple of months. I remain confident of higher prices going forward. I don't think this is the start of a huge decline but I've been wrong before. Summation index still heading higher. I'll be looking for calls. Gold fell today, down about 8 bucks on the futures. It dropped more in the aftermarket. The XAU fell almost 9 points. ABX, GG and NEM all lost about 2 points. Volume was average. The dollar bounced today. I still am a believer in the gold shares. Volume has been strong to the upside. Perhaps the January calls. However, the weekly chart on the gold shares will look bearish unless there is a huge rise tomorrow. GE got killed today on a credit downgrade. It lost 1 1/2 on heavy volume. I still like the January calls there and am keeping an eye on them. Perhaps a purchase there next week for the new year. Mentally I'm doing OK, a bit tired with not enough sleep last night. After tomorrow, holiday time will be upon us. Volume will be low and the option premiums should decay. That's what usually happens but this has been a pretty intense trading year so who knows? I still want to get some January calls at some point. I'll try my best to pay attention. The discipline and focus required hopefully will return soon.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
No follow through today as the Dow lost 100 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. I think the action today was expiration related. The trend is still up in my opinion. We are working off a short term oversold condition. May get some fireworks into Friday one way or the other. Declines can be bought in my opinion but I've been wrong before. Gold was up $25 today and the dollar continues in free fall. However the XAU lost a point as it may be time for gold to take a rest. ABX was up 3/4 but GG and NEM each lost about a buck. Volume was good again here for the gold shares. I'd like to get the calls here if we get a decent pullback in the next 2 weeks. GE lost 1/2 on average volume. I'm looking to get the January calls here as well, sometime before the end of the year. No rush though. Next week should be slow. Mentally I'm doing OK. I think today would have been a good day to take a chance on the GG puts as we had a one day reversal to the downside for the gold shares. I didn't do it though, as I've been hesitating about everything here lately. But that will eventually change. So we'll see. Otherwise it looks like I'm done trading for the 2008 trading year. I don't foresee anything else at the moment.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
A Fed rally as the Dow gained 360 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. Rates were cut 3/4 of a point and there is nothing left. I did not think the Fed would go so low. There is no ammo left as far as rates are concerned. The volume for yesterdays market was light on the decline. In retrospect, it was a clue. I'm not getting reliable volume readings and I will need to fix that. However, I had chances to get long and did not take them. Gold was up $6 and screamed higher after the Fed announcement. The XAU rose 8 points. The dollar has gotten crushed as the flight to safety ends and rates drop. ABX, GG and NEM were all up by around $2 on heavy volume. I'm still kicking myself for missing this one. The story is clear, get long gold. There are no pullbacks. GE was up almost a buck on good volume. They announced that their earnings forecasts for 2009 remain in place. Had a chance to do the December calls here as well but sat it out. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated at the moment. Opportunities have passed me by again. I need to pay more attention and have some courage. I'm still in a mental funk at the moment. The focus and desire seem to be lacking for whatever reasons. I'll need to get my head on straight and move forward.
Monday, December 15, 2008
The Dow lost 65 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We were down about 100 points more than the close but rallied back in the last 1/2 hour. Waiting on the Fed tomorrow. I'm not sure what to expect there. They are calling for a 1/2 point rate cut but that would take us to a 1/2% fed funds rate. Not much left to go after that. I would not be surprised with a 1/4 cut or no cut at all. But that's just a guess. No trades in the OEX for now but I'm leaning short after the Fed announcement. Gold continued strong today on a weaker dollar. Gold was up $16 and the XAU rose 4 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over a buck on good volume. I am thinking of getting some GG puts before the Fed tomorrow. However we came down on the gold shares before rallying at the end of the day so they are not as overbought as they were. My thinking is that the dollar will rally once the Fed is out of the way. A sell the news event for the gold shares. But it is more of a hunch than something that has technical merit. GE lost a bit on light volume. I'm still in the January calls camp there. I think just shooting for the Decembers this week is too much of a risk. We are working off the overbought condition very nicely and it is a matter of timing at this point. But again, anything can happen. Mentally I'm kind of in a funk with no clear decisiveness for a trade really. I've been risk averse for the past couple of weeks. I think it has more to do with not wanting to incur a loss before the end of the year. I also missed the gold trade and it would have been a beauty for December. So on it goes. I may try a Fed play but hopefully won't. The needed focus isn't there yet. As usual it's up to me. Tough game.
Friday, December 12, 2008
The Dow gained 64 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We opened about 200 points lower and fought back all day from that. The market wants to go higher. Summation index still pointing upwards. No need to fight it. Fed next week and we'll go from there. Gold lost $6 but the XAU rose 2 3/4. The gold shares are leaders here. NEM up over a buck with ABX and GG fractional gainers. Volume was decent. Pullbacks are met with buying. I'd still like to get long here but we remain overbought. GE didn't do much and the volume was light. I still am looking at the January calls here. One week for December options and that might just be a bit too risky. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have used some more sleep. I'd like to get positioned for the beginning of next year with some calls. Perhaps if we get some weakness next week. I'm trying to focus on what needs to be done. I have a couple of ideas and am really thinking of trying a Fed play. I'll need to check the charts over the weekend. It's time for a break.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Back to the downside today as we lost 195 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. Volume was light. I still think you can buy weakness here. We may get some selling into the Fed meeting but I would look at it as a buying opportunity for the January calls. That's my thinking at the moment. So we'll see. Gold was up another $17 today as the dollar has gotten creamed this week. However the XAU lost a point. It was a one day reversal to the downside there. ABX and GG had small gains and were well off their highs. NEM dropped 3/4. Volume was above average. Perhaps the gold shares will take a little rest here. I'm still going to look at the January calls in the gold shares. GE lost about a buck on light volume. I will be getting some January GE calls here at some point. Perhaps early next week. We've rolled over on the daily chart and I'll try and wait for GE to get oversold. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep as much as wanted. Option expiration next week and perhaps volatility will return if today is any indication. Inflation data tomorrow and I don't expect any big surprises but who knows? I'm trying to stay patient but at some point you've got to make a move. The focus isn't what it needs to be though but I'm working on it.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
The Dow gained 70 points today on lighter volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. It was an up and down day as the market decides what it wants to do here. I still feel that we are going higher even if we do have some weakness near term. I would use that weakness to purchase some January calls. That's the game plan at the moment. Gold had a great day, up $35. The XAU rose over 10 points. ABX, GG and NEM all up over 2 1/2 on expanding volume. We are breaking the weekly down trend line in the gold shares. Overbought here but we could stay there. I'm not feeling good about missing this move but there will be others. Friday was the day to get calls here as well. GE was up a touch on light volume. I'm waiting to get the January calls here. That will most likely be the next trade. Mentally I'm doing OK. I get the feeling here that we will be going a bit lower before we start to rise again. I could be wrong. Option expiration is next week so anything goes. Also there is a Fed meeting on Tuesday. I really need to focus here more but I haven't been able to do it. My ideas seem like that they would have worked right now but I haven't done any trades. I don't know what to say about that. Not enough guts and concentration. It isn't an easy game.
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
We were overdue for a pause and we got one today with the Dow down 242 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. I still am in the camp that says we are in some type of longer term rally here. I would be surprised if we just fell apart here and I do not expect that to happen. But I've been wrong before. Gold was up 5 bucks and the XAU managed a 3/4 gain. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains on average volume. We are right at the weekly downtrend line for the gold shares and I expect an upside breakout. The dollar was just a touch stronger today. If we break through on the upside in the gold shares I may have to jump on board. Volume will be the key. GE lost a bit over a buck today on average volume. I'd like the January calls here if we get more of a pullback. The daily technicals are still in overbought territory. I'm going to try and be patient but you never know. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I think I have a handle on the market here as we seem to have moved back to a more normal situation. Volatility isn't what it was, lately. Sure, that could change but it is December and people have their minds on other things. I'm sticking with my upside market scenario and will trade accordingly. It seems to me like a market that wants to go higher.
Monday, December 08, 2008
Continuing higher and breaking above a weekly downtrend line. The Dow up 298 points on average volume. Advance/declines 3 to 1 positive. Summation index higher. No sellers at the moment. Dips can be bought until further notice. That's my opinion at the moment. I believe that it's the right one. I'll be looking for calls at decent prices going into January. Gold was up $17 and the XAU rose 7 3/4 points. The gold shares are poised to break a weekly downtrend line as well. ABX, GG and NEM all up around 2 on OK volume. The dollar was weaker today and oil was higher. I may try the December calls here but we'll see. Friday was really the optimum day to purchase. GE was up a buck on good volume as the rally there continues unabated. Sold my calls there way too early but there still may be a chance for January. Any pullback can be bought in GE at this point. I could be wrong but it doesn't feel that way at the moment. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected. Should have acted on weakness Friday but did not. The focus wasn't there. The urgency was missing. The market has turned here and I've seen it before. I have somewhat of a game plan going forward but the concentration and discipline are elusive right now. I'll need to get it together before another opportunity passes me by.
Friday, December 05, 2008
It was a Friday turnaround as the Dow gained 260 points on average volume. We were down almost 200 early but came all the way back and then some. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The employment number was bleak with the most job losses in 30 years or so. The market shrugged it off and moved higher. A market that moves up in the face of bad news is going to go higher. I looked at calls to purchase but did not find anything cheap. I will keep looking. Gold lost $13 but the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on average volume. The gold shares did sell off early as well. I had an order in for GG calls but was not filled. I'd still like to go out to January there so we'll see. But that doesn't mean that I won't try a December play. GE is overbought and staying there, up another 35 cents on average volume. I would like to buy the calls back there as well but will not chase it here. If we get a pullback and get down to oversold, then I'll do it. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. I expected some weakness, we got it but the trading opportunities didn't look worth it in my opinion. The market appears to be stronger then I anticipated here. I'll have to make the adjustment. 2 weeks in the December cycle left to go. It's the weekend and time to check the charts and take a break.
Thursday, December 04, 2008
The Dow moved lower today ahead of the employment report. We were down 215 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We came back at the end as we were down over 300 at one point. I would expect lower prices tomorrow but the market seems to be acting better here. I'm looking to purchase some calls as I've said before. The weakness can last into Monday perhaps but I expect next week to be higher. That's the idea for now. It will change as the market moves. Gold lost $5 and the XAU dropped 2 3/4. ABX and GG were off 3/4, while NEM gained a touch. Volume was average. I'd like to get long the gold shares going out into January. When to purchase them is the question. Perhaps next week, maybe tomorrow. GE lost around 60 cents on average volume. We are overbought now for GE. However I still feel the January calls can be purchased on weakness. I could be wrong. I may even try the December calls there again. I'll have to check the charts tonight. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well last night. My thinking is that opportunity is here. How to take advantage of it is the question. I may just wait until Monday depending on how tomorrow turns out. So the employment report is the next thing that the market has to deal with. We'll see.
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
The Dow continues higher, up another 172 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The price action has been constructive since the Monday meltdown. However I do expect prices to fall in the next 2 days. I would be very surprised if they did not. But what do I know? Summation index heading higher. Employment report on Friday. I'll be getting long on any pull back. Gold lost $12 today and the XAU fell 4 1/2 points. ABX and GG were both off over a buck and NEM lost almost 3. Volume was average. Yes I'd like to get some gold share calls but they did not participate in todays rally and that is troublesome. So I'll hold off for now. GE was up about 50 cents on good volume. I'll probably look to go out to the January calls if it ever corrects a bit. Again, the relative strength is there. The volume is there. GE is going higher. Mentally I'm doing OK. My work suggests lower prices within the next couple of days. If that occurs, it's a chance to get some calls in my opinion. I think that the employment report could be the trigger for a downside move. So we'll see.
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Back to the upside as the Dow gained 270 points on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. We opened a couple hundred points higher, came all the way back and then took off again. So volatility has returned. I'm still looking for some more downside this week. But who knows? It's been a crazy game for months now. Yesterday was about the most negative day for the internals as I've ever seen. We've got to be washed out at some point. Gold was up $6 and the XAU gained rose 6 points. ABX and GG were up a buck and change, NEM gained 2. Volume was average. Yes, I like the gold shares again but would like to see a better pull back to get the calls. May not get it. GE was the star of the day up over 2 on extremely heavy volume. Yes, I sold the calls too early but I will be buying them back if we get a retrace in price. The relative strength is very strong in GE at the moment. Overbought for now though but the money still seems to be going there. I'll keep an eye on it. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept OK. Still trying to be patient and wait for the employment report on Friday. Plenty of time in the option cycle. So we'll see what happens.
Monday, December 01, 2008
It was a rough start to the week as the Dow got clobbered, down 680 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. We were short term overbought and due for a pullback. However with a move like this it's hard to make out what's coming up ahead. Doesn't seem like there is any good news on the horizon but you never know. Employment report on Friday. I'd like to get some calls when the time is right however that may not be until next week. Gold lost over $40 today as it seemed like it was a sell everything to raise capital event again. The XAU shed 12 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around 3 bucks on average volume. Sure, I'd like to get some gold share calls but at what level is the question. Plenty of time left in the December option cycle. GE lost 1 1/2 on average volume. I may go out to the January calls here if I buy them again. I'm pretty sure that I will unless we just go into a free fall again. Can't rule anything out in this kind of market. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Has the volatility returned? Did it ever leave? It's an interesting market to try and trade. However, interesting doesn't necessarily mean profitable. I'm going to try and be patient here but you never know.