Friday, December 29, 2006
The Dow lost 38 points on the final day of trading for 2006. Volume was light. Advance/declines were negative. I took the GE trade that I was thinking about today. I now own some calls for my first trade of the next year. My thinking is that we will see a rally on Tuesday that will carry the big cap stocks higher. The stop loss order is in. I don't think this will be a long term trade and I will probably be out on Tuesday or Wednesday if things go according to plan. But we will see. Perhaps the market will open the new year lower. There are always risks. The market sold off pretty good in the last hour. Gold was up almost 2 bucks and the XAU sold off almost a point. Volume extremely light for the gold shares again. I'll need to check the charts here again over the long weekend. I do know the summation index will be pointing down again and the overall market was weaker than the Dow today. My thinking is that todays trading was more end of the year related. But who knows? Mentally I'm doing good and am anxious just a bit to see how we open on Tuesday. It seems like it's been a while since the last trade. I'd also like to start the new year off on a good note. It is a very difficult game.
Thursday, December 28, 2006
The Dow lost 9 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. I am thinking of getting some GE calls for January. GE had a big rise and is now consolidating the move. My thought is that there will be a nice gain on the first day of next year. The weekly charts project prices at least a couple of points higher than where we are today. I'm not sure this is the best trade in the world but perhaps it will work. Gold was up over 6 dollars today. The XAU only rose a point on light volume. The XAU hasn't moved as well as gold itself lately. I would like to trade the gold shares here but haven't. It is hard to get excited when the volume is missing. Not to mention the lack of confirmation in the XAU. So I'm sitting it out there for now. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected. I am trying to wait until the new year to get it going again but this GE trade could be my first. If the calls get to a price that I'm looking for tomorrow, I might just pull the trigger. You can never be sure of any trade and you really have to be nimble. Just yesterday I had said that I want to wait for the good set-ups. But they just don't happen all the time. There are reasons to take on this trade just as there are reasons to sit it out. We'll see.
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
The Dow was up 103 points on light volume again. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. I suppose in retrospect I should have got some calls when we were oversold and down big on the McClellan oscillator. I guess I just wasn't paying attention. I am in holiday mode. Trying to take a break and that's what I'm doing. Gold was up around 3 bucks and the XAU rose almost 3 points. Again the volume was light so I really don't know how to treat it. The gold shares are oversold here too. I just don't trust light volume rallies though. I'm on the sidelines there. The prudent thing to do at this point I believe is to wait until next year. That is what I am going to try and do. Mentally I'm going to stay in stand-by mode. There is no reason to try and force things here. I am going to try next year to only take the good set-ups. I will try and trade less but with better success. I know it won't be easy but that is the plan for now.
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
The Dow rose 64 points on extremely light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Oil was down today. There isn't much to make of a day like this. It's a holiday week. Gold was up around $5 and the XAU rose 3/4 of a point. Volume very light here also. Not much to say except that the trading will be light this week and it's probably best to just sit it out here. I don't see anything on the charts that stands out at the moment. Better to rest up and get ready for the new year.
Friday, December 22, 2006
The Dow lost 78 points on holiday light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I was surprised we dropped that much but you really can't read much into it. Gold was little changed as was the XAU. Light volume there as well. Nothing earth-shattering to report. I'll check the charts over the long weekend and try to come up with something to start the new year. Otherwise it's time to relax.
Thursday, December 21, 2006
The Dow lost 42 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. One more day before the holiday weekend and I don't expect too much. Should start a holiday rally sometime next week. Gold was down around 3 bucks and the XAU lost about 2 1/2 points. Light volume there as well. Again as I've said, we're just marking time. On a bigger picture, yesterday the price of copper breached $3 to the downside. This was one of my benchmarks for the overall world economy. We should expect a slowdown to accelerate now. I expect that worldwide GDP will lessen as we go forward. That doesn't mean inflation will be gone, just that I expect growth will be less. That will impact profits and eventually market prices. It also should lead to a stop in interest rate increases or perhaps some rate declines. That is my big picture scenario at this time. I was wrong last year on my market call and that's something I won't forget. But you gotta just keep moving on. Anyway this years trading resulted in a net loss of a little less than 3%. It wasn't a good year. I sustained my highest single trade loss ever. That will not happen again. My win % was terrible too. There are things that I need to work on and I am getting to that as soon as possible. But for now it's time to wind down and relax for a few days. The holidays are here.
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
The Dow lost 7 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Not a lot of movement. I really think we are going into holiday mode here. No trades on the horizon. Gold was down a little over a buck and the XAU lost 3 points. This doesn't bode well for gold. NEM just broke its uptrend line. The volume in the gold shares was light which tells me that there's no interest at the moment. I think the dollar was a bit higher today. There just isn't a lot to say about the markets at the moment. 2 days left before a nice long holiday weekend. We are on standby. Mentally I'm taking a little break here. Just relaxing and getting ready for next year. Perhaps tomorrow I'll tally up the final % numbers for 2006. It was a small loss but we'll get it exact tomorrow.
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
The Dow gained 30 points on good volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. The market just keeps on going. There is no good reason. A lot of money floating around I guess. How long can it continue is the question. We are in a bullish time period though. Even bad inflation news didn't keep it down for long. Gold was up over 7 bucks and the XAU rose over 3 points. As I said yesterday we were just about at an uptrend line. Technicals oversold also. The volume wasn't much today though. Gold was also helped today by the weaker dollar and a sniff of inflation from the PPI. As much as I'd like to get some calls here, I'm going to step aside for now. But I'll be watching it. Mentally I'm feeling a bit relieved after visiting the dentist this morning. But on the whole I'm really marking time. I don't anticipate any trades until next week or early next year. It is time to sit back, take a look at the past year and set some goals for 2007.
Monday, December 18, 2006
The Dow lost 4 points on average volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative and the overall market was much weaker than the Dow. I think the only thing helping the Dow here has been GE, which has been up about 2 points in 4 days. The summation index has rolled over but the indices haven't really been hit. Gold was off a couple bucks and the XAU lost over 2 points. We are just about at an uptrend line for the XAU. The technicals are oversold also. I'd like to get long but just don't feel good about it. It's the sidelines for now. I do not think I'll be entering any trades until next year but you never know. The dollar has been stronger here and is coming off oversold conditions longer term. This doesn't bode well for gold. However money flows should remain positive for the next few weeks. It's never easy. Mentally I'm taking it easy. It's kind of like a vacation at this time of year. The big players are on holiday so I don't expect any earth shattering moves. The summation index needs to come off the high levels that it is at in order to rally again. So some weakness in the advance/decline line would be welcome for the bulls. There is no other news so it's kind of like time for a break. Of course the work still has to be done every day. But the urgency is gone for a while. There is also an extra week in this option cycle and that lends itself to marking time. So we will sit and wait for a decent signal and take it from there.
Friday, December 15, 2006
The Dow was up 28 points on expiration heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are overbought once again, however the market just shrugs it off and continues higher. It is momentum driven. The inflation data as benign. Gold got hammered and lost over $11. However the XAU only lost a couple of points. The gold shares have held up rather well considering golds recent demise. I think it has to do with long only funds simply buying shares in sympathy will the overall strong stock market. At any rate it is interesting and makes for difficult trading decisions there. The dollar has been stronger here lately too but the gold shares are hanging in there. I'm still looking at January for the gold shares but who knows? As for other trading ideas at this point, I don't really have any. I think we will be in holiday mode for the next 2 weeks. It will give me a chance to regroup and get ready for next year. Mentally I'm just hanging around. The trading year is essentially over and I ended up with a small loss. I'll have to review the year and try and do better in 2007...
Thursday, December 14, 2006
The Dow gained 100 points on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. I had thought the market needed a decline and was wrong again. I almost put in an overnight order last night for puts when I got a signal from the McClellan oscillator. But those signals just haven't been working lately. There is so much money floating around out there that the only way to go is up I suppose. But it won't last forever. Inflation data tomorrow. I really don't expect any surprises. Gold lost a couple bucks today but the XAU rose over a point. Most likely in sympathy with the overall market. ABX was stronger than NEM now. NEM is having trouble getting through a multi-week downtrend line. The dollar was higher again today also. Options expire tomorrow. My thinking is that it will be a non-event followed by a couple of weeks of listless trading before the new year. That's my guess and I haven't been right about much anything in quite a while. Mentally I'm kind of in stand-by mode. I haven't come up with a gameplan for next year yet. My ideas for this year just didn't pan out. There isn't much to do here at the moment. I also missed out on GE, as I had just looked at the chart before it broke out. It had a decent double bottom but I really wasn't paying attention. You don't make any money like that.
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
The Dow gained 2 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive but not by much. My OEX puts got stopped out early in the day when we were up around 50 points. It was a 50% loss. Not a great trade but I knew that going in. Not a lot of money involved but I really should have just sat it out. The battle is always against myself. But I'm moving on and was at least able to stop myself from doing something stupid again for the rest of the day. Retail sales came out good so we didn't drop as I had anticipated. I still think we're heading down here. Gold didn't end up much changed. It sold off early and came back to be up a tad. The XAU had the same action. NEM came all the way back as did ABX. I wanted to get some calls with 2 days left but did not. It's even riskier than the OEX in my opinion but the technicals are oversold. However the dollar is acting firmer here, so it's a tough call. I think it will be better to just let it go and look to January. There is an extra week on those options. So that's probably it for this year for me. It is a down year but not by much. Mentally I should take a little break here. The holidays will most likely be slow. I'm not feeling too bad about todays losing trade. It was executed properly, as have all the trades since that blowout in September. I really don't have anything on the horizon. Perhaps some gold shares. That's it for today.
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
The Dow lost 13 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were down over 50 points at one point but came back after the Fed announcement. I did put in an order for OEX puts and was filled. They are slightly under water. The Dow and the OEX would have been down much more but GE made a positive announcement. That issue alone helped the Dow stay up. Volume has gone up on the downside but I am not so sure of this trade. The stop-loss order is in. Retail sales will be announced tomorrow and we will key off of that. We'll see what happens. If we do head higher it will be solid because we will be breaking through resistance. If not then today was the final gasp up for the bulls. Gold was down a bit today , depending on which market for gold you looked at. The XAU was hit hard early too but also came back. NEM held up pretty well. The volume was so-so. I'm not looking to do anything there at the moment. So I'll wait until tomorrow. Expiration week has had a positive bias lately but we haven't seen much this week. I certainly don't want to wait until Friday for these puts. At this point I feel there is a good chance I will be stopped out. It isn't the greatest trade in the world. However if the market can't break through to the upside here, it will be worthwhile. Mentally, I'm a bit tired but ready to move on.
Monday, December 11, 2006
The Dow gained 21 points on lighter volume. Advance/declines were positive. I'd like to get some OEX puts here but there really isn't a good signal. That said, there is some evidence that we could be forming a top here. Sometimes you can't wait for a perfect set-up. This could be one of those times. The Fed meets tomorrow and we are basically on hold until their announcement. I will probably do something if I can get a good price. Gold was down a bit today but the XAU rose over a point. I did put in an order for NEM calls, it didn't get filled and I canceled it. The open interest did expand pretty good on Fridays heavy volume. There was some good volume in those calls again today. However the volume in NEM itself was weak and it rose around 30 cents. I'm not sure what to do here. I might just sit it out. The trade number comes out tomorrow morning and that should be a dollar mover. The dollar was weaker today. There are only 4 days left on the options. The risk for whatever trade I do here is extremely high. Mentally I'm trying to do the right thing. That could be no trade at all. I will check the various charts tonight and take it from there. There is also opportunity here if I can find it. I certainly don't want to lose any money here. We'll see what happens.
Friday, December 08, 2006
The Dow rose 29 points on lighter than lately volume. Advance/declines were negative. The employment report was better than expected but the session was rather lackluster. I would still like to get some OEX puts especially with todays action. We'll see about that on Monday. Gold was originally higher early but then sold off on some government officials comments. Early in the session, I canceled my open order for NEM calls. Gold ended down over 5 bucks and the XAU lost 2 1/2 points. NEM held up rather well considering and there was again heavy volume in the calls I'm looking at. I mean big volume. Open interest expanded yesterday with the volume. I don't know what is going on there but if the open interest expended again when I check on Monday, I might just have to buy those calls. The chart doesn't look good anymore though and if they're talking up the dollar it isn't a smart play. Not to mention the fact that there is only a week left on these things. Perhaps an announcement is forthcoming. I really don't know. Maybe people were just getting out of their calls too. I'll find out Monday I guess. Otherwise mentally today I was fighting myself not to make a trade. There really isn't a clear signal on the OEX but longer term it looks like a sell. Todays weak overall market lends credence to that. The low volume also suggests not much interest here. The summation index could roll over here too. I really need to check things carefully over the weekend. I do believe Monday that I'm going to do some type of trade.
Thursday, December 07, 2006
The Dow lost 30 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. I did not get any OEX puts but they look like they will work. We'll see about tomorrow and the employment report. My computer still doesn't work and I'm on the back-up computer. It is frustrating to say the least. Trading is tough enough without other outside problems. I need to focus on the markets but with other things in the background it isn't easy. However no excuses are good enough in this game. Gold was down early and then came back. The XAU had a good showing and was up over a point. It had been down a couple points early on. NEM is really acting well here and I am leaving in an overnight order for some calls. I don't know if it will work but I am going to give it a try. It is too late for the OEX puts in my opinion and I'd like to make some money before the expiration next week. The dollar has held up well the past few days but that could change at any time. It is a risky trade with just about a week left but I saw some heavy volume in these options today so I think there is some major buying. We'll see what the open interest says tomorrow. Mentally I'm pretty tired as I did not sleep well. The trading has been trying lately and the computer problems just add to the stress. And stress does not make for good trades. I'm just going to continue moving forward and see how it goes. Tomorrow should be an interesting day. I think it could be a weak one.
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
Early post today as I have to pick up my computer. 10 minutes to go and the Dow is down about 30 points. Advance/declines are slightly negative. I am thinking harder about getting some OEX puts tomorrow. We'll see. Gold got hammered today, down $12. The XAU has held up pretty good, only down a couple of points. I'm not sure that I will get the calls here though. The dollar is starting to rebound. This is a trade that may not work now. I'm going to have to think hard about it. Perhaps it will be better to wait. Tomorrow will tell. I'm leaning more towards the OEX puts before the employment report. That's all I have time for today.
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
The Dow rose another 48 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. There seems to be no stopping this market. We remain overbought. I am still thinking about getting some OEX puts but it's risky. I will perhaps get some before the employment report. We'll see. Gold lost three bucks today and the XAU fell about 2 points. NEM held up quite well which was surprising. I am not so sure about getting long gold here. The dollar has stabilized and is way oversold. Any bounce in the dollar here will drain the gold shares. It too, is a risky play. I might have to look out to January as previously planned. I am having trouble here committing to a plan. The stock market could hold up here for a while. However I do feel there will be a short play in here soon. Gold may have had its run here. The volume yesterday was very weak to the upside although the weekly charts do look constructive. Mentally I'm trying to get to a good place. I need to remain objective and realize that there is no harm in staying on the sidelines. But there is no money made there either. I'm going to look things over tonight and take it from there.
Monday, December 04, 2006
The Dow rose 90 points today on very good volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. New highs expanded. We have new recent highs on the S&P 500. Nothing seems to stop this market. We're overbought here but it could stay that way as it has recently. I do want to get some OEX puts but to buy them in the face of this isn't a good idea. At least I think it isn't. The Dow and OEX are lagging slightly here. The Nasdaq had a good day. I'm on the sidelines here. Gold didn't do anything but the XAU rose almost 2 points in sympathy with the overall market I'm guessing. I canceled the order for NEM calls. I still might do this trade but who knows. The gold shares, like the stock market, are overbought here. This type of trade looks good going out further, as it has for weeks. I'm waiting it out for a better entry I suppose. But in reality, this trade was missed. I'm not seeing open interest expand on ABX and NEM here, so I'm going to be a bit cautious. We'll see what happens. Not much else for today. Mentally I'm trying to get a handle on just exactly what is going on here. Less than 2 weeks now before expiration and I would like to make a decent trade. I'm not going to try and force things here though. Employment report on Friday and that is about it until the Fed meets. I'm going to look things over tonight and take it from there...
Friday, December 01, 2006
The Dow lost 27 points on good volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. The market at on point was down 120 points and came back in the last hour. I don't know if it was beginning of the month money or what but it did come back. I'd still like to get some OEX puts but will now wait. We could be forming a decent top here. Gold was down another couple of dollars and the XAU lost a point and a half. The XAU also sold off more and came back too. I modified the open order I have in for NEM calls and left it for over the weekend. The gold shares are overbought here but don't want to sell off. Of course that could all change next week but I'm still looking for higher prices there. The dollar continued weaker. Only two weeks left in this option cycle so it gets tricky from here. There will be opportunity. I'll try my best to take advantage of it. Mentally I'm trying not to do anything stupid here and trade just for the sake of trading. I don't really see a good signal yet for the OEX but it could come next week. Volatility has picked up and I don't know if it a sign of things to come or not. Not much data out next week until the employment report on Friday. The Fed meets the week of expiration. So it will get interesting, that's for sure. For now it's the weekend and the charts must be studied. The plan from here must be formalized. Rest will come later...
Thursday, November 30, 2006
The Dow lost 5 points today on very heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. If we hold up here for another day I am thinking of getting some puts on the OEX. Not completely sold on this idea but it could be the play. I haven't gotten a complete short term sell signal but one could take shape. Or perhaps I'm just antsy after missing out on gold. It rose over $10 today and the XAU went up over 5 points. The ABX calls took off and I am feeling terrible. I suppose those after the bell NEM trades make sense now. Some big player got good prices and cleaned up on the calls. I did place an order for NEM calls today but then canceled it. However I did leave in an order overnight in case we get a pullback in the morning. The dollar continued to fall today and I think that will continue. We are oversold on the dollar and it is in freefall. Gold is way overbought and staying there. I have seen this before. This is a move that I will chase. ABX really is acting stronger but the calls are way overpriced. My hope is that NEM will catch up. But that could all change as we move forward in time. I am also thinking about getting short the market here as the high volume today with no price movement tells me that the buyers might be done as the group in control here. It would also set us up for a nice rise at the beginning of next year. At any rate the OEX is a tough trade so I will wait and see how the market sets up for that. Mentally I'm feeling down for not putting on any gold trade but I need to move on and maintain focus. It may not be too late here but we'll see. Perhaps moving to a higher strike price and going to January will have to be the move. The monthlies in gold are bullish and the weeklies are only halfway to overbought. I'll think it over tonight and take it from there. I'd expect another pause here for gold soon but who knows.
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
The Dow was up 90 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Volatility has returned. But will we just keep going higher? Was the 150 plus point decline just a blip on the horizon? It is the end of the month which could skew things. But really, I don't know. The summation index should now be back into positive territory. I'm on the sidelines for the OEX now. I'm going to have to wait for a good signal. It isn't easy. Gold was down a couple bucks today but the XAU was up fractionally. It still seems like the gold shares want to go higher. There is no selling pressure. I am still looking at the ABX calls if I get a chance but it doesn't look like it will happen. I noticed some strange action in the NEM calls after the bell. I don't know what it means but the volume soared on some trades 7 minutes after the bell and the prices were low on the trades for the day. Can't tell if someone's getting in big or looking to bail out. I'll check the open interest tomorrow. Open interest has increased in the ABX calls and that's usually a positive. ABX is overbought here though but I'm thinking that it will stay there if the dollar remains weak which I expect it to. But nothing is for sure in this game. Mentally I'm hanging in there with the back-up computer and all. I'm not running as many things at once now in hopes the computer will perform better. But it is a problem. Gotta keep going though.
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
The blog today is early due to computer issues. There is a reason that this is a back-up computer. It cannot handle what I have to do. The Dow is rallying today up over 30 points at the moment. The overall market is stronger. Advance/declines are positive and the volume looks decent. I am missing out on gold though as the XAU is up over a point. ABX is acting well. Big Ben spoke today and that influenced the markets for a while. The dollar is still weaker. Gold didn't do much today. However I feel that this is where I need to be but it's probably too late. The computer problems here are taking center stage. There isn't much I can do at this point. I'm getting it fixed and I'll just have to move on. Hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.
Monday, November 27, 2006
My computer crashed over the weekend and I am on a backup computer. It is older and slower but the show must go on until I can get the newer one fixed. The Dow lost 158 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. We got oversold pretty quick. The markets continue to be interesting. The dollar got clobbered again today and that could be part of the reason. WalMart reported weaker sales and that is another excuse. We will now be pointing down on the summation index as a sell signal. We are oversold and a bounce would not be a surprise. How good that bounce is will tell a lot. I'm in a wait and see mode for the OEX. Gold was up another couple bucks and I expected the gold shares to soar but they didn't. The XAU was up a half a point. I still want to get some calls on ABX or NEM here. But I will wait to see what happens. We should have moved higher here for the gold shares but there wasn't a lot of interest. I don't know what that means but we'll see. With the dollar in a freefall here I would expect money to flow into gold but it hasn't happened in a big way just yet. Perhaps I will go out to January as I wanted to do. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit thrown off with the computer problems. At least I was prepared with a back-up but it isn't as good as the normal computer. It will do for now though. You've sometimes got to make adjustments. This is important in trading and the mechanics of exactly what you are trying to do. It isn't an easy game. But you've got to roll with what happens and keep on trying. There is a lot of data coming out tomorrow so it could get interesting. I will try and come up with some type of plan for tomorrow and the December cycle. But really my thoughts at the moment are a little scattered and I need to work on that...
Friday, November 24, 2006
The Dow lost 46 points on extremely light holiday volume. Advance/declines were positive. Hard to say what today means with such light volume. The dollar has gotten killed over the last 2 days so perhaps todays decline has something to do with that. Gold was up $9 and the XAU gained over 3 points. I want to be long the gold shares but I hate to chase the move. The volume was light and it did not close near the high. But the weekly charts say buy and I think I might get some calls if we get a bit of weakness on Monday. I'm going to try December and not January. I did put in an order today just to test the market and it didn't get filled. I don't usually do that but I did today. If it did get filled I'd still want to own them because I think we will continue to see strength there. The dollar chart looks like it is breaking down. That should help gold. We'll see. The only problem here is the fact that it was a holiday week. Not all the players were in the markets. So the moves we have seen may not be legit. There was some major violence in Iraq again and I think that helped to support gold here also. The gold market can sometimes just start going and it continues to run. It also has some crazy volatility that works both ways. I'll check things again over the weekend but the plan for now is to get long even with the recent move we've seen. Mentally I feel good with the holiday and all. Next week could be interesting. There is also a lot of data out on Tuesday and I'd like to be positioned before then if I plan on doing anything.
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
The Dow was up 5 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive and the overall market was stronger. We are very overbought here, at the top of the ranges on a lot of indicators. So a drop is imminent but none of the drops lately has led to anything major. Gold didn't do much today and neither did the XAU. Volume was light. It's pre-holidays doldrums and then a shortened session on Friday. So there isn't much really going on and this is more of a time to just take it easy. Sometimes the beginning of December is weak, setting up the end of the month and January to be positive. The market has had a very good run here and a pullback would probably be a good thing. But the market will do what it does, so if it just continues higher I suppose that wouldn't be a surprise either. Mentally I'm on hold waiting for the next trade. I'm not going to force things and will wait and see if I get a chance for the gold trade. Otherwise it will be the sidelines until a decent signal is generated.
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
The Dow gained 5 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger again. We shouldn't see much movement in the next couple of days with Thanksgiving and the volume will dry up. That's what usually happens. Gold was up 6 bucks today and the XAU rose about 5 points. I did not expect that but we were oversold on a daily basis. I'm hoping I haven't missed the beginning of the next upmove but it's possible. The volume wasn't all that heavy. I'm hoping that it was a one day wonder and we will come back down. Time will tell. I'll adjust to what happens here. My emphasis is still to go out until January. But you never know. The gold market gaps a lot so you've got to have some type of idea of what you want to do and then do it. I am looking at a certain level for ABX and when we get there, I'm in. There is also the chance that we get there and just keep on going down also. Time will tell. NEM has a different picture but the play could be there as well. It's all just a guess until we get there. The technicals need to line up daily, weekly and monthly. It seems they do that best with ABX. Mentally I'm tired due to getting up for an early appointment. Luckily there isn't anything really going on tradingwise at the moment. So I'm going to try and relax. The holiday is almost here and the markets should be relatively quiet for the rest of the week.
Monday, November 20, 2006
The Dow lost 26 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about even. The overall market was stronger implying higher prices down the road. No trades in the nearterm for me. Gold was little changed as was the XAU. Nothing doing there either for now but I will be looking to get positioned for January if the market cooperates. Not much economic data out this week and there's Thanksgiving too. So it is time to take it easy and not try to force things. I'll let this week go by and then take it from there. Mentally I'm doing fine and just waiting for the next signal. This year is about over and it hasn't been a good one so far, profitwise. But there has been some improvement as to the overall picture and trading strategy. At any rate, in this game you've got to just keep on going. So that's what I'll do.
Friday, November 17, 2006
The Dow rose 36 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. Perhaps this will lead to a pause in this upturn. Perhaps not. Next week should be slow with Thanksgiving, so I'll wait for that to pass before making any trades. Gold was little changed today as was the XAU. I am going to try and be patient here but it looks like getting long soon is the way to go. I am going to go out to January on the gold shares unless something out of the ordinary happens. SUNH seems to be stabilizing here for now. This is not a trade but a longer term stock that I'd like to buy. I've mentioned it before as it is in the healthcare industry. If it gets to single digits, I'm a buyer. There isn't really much else to say here. We are entering a period where there really isn't usually much action. December is generally pretty slow before the holidays. Perhaps I won't make any other trades for this year. Mentally I'm just hanging around at this point. Options expiration has passed and it will be slow next week. Of course I will be watching everything as usual but the urgency won't be there. I suppose I can get started on writing up my goals for next year and taking a look back at this one. But unless something drastic happens it will probably be a time to be patient...
Thursday, November 16, 2006
The Dow gained 54 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive but not by much. The OEX puts I bought yesterday got stopped out for a loss of 45%. It's not as bad as it sounds since there wasn't a lot of money involved. I would love to be short here if there was some time left but the options only have a day to go. The inflation data was benign. Gold was down a couple of bucks today but the XAU got slammed. Down over 5 points. It moved in sympathy with oil which lost over 2 bucks. Interesting. I am keeping an eye on the gold shares here. I will be getting long gold when it sells off here. I'll be going out to January or perhaps even February. The NEM calls that I wanted got crushed. Sometimes the sidelines are the place to be. There really wasn't a good signal there. The key here will be when everybody else doesn't want it, buy it. Mentally I'm not feeling so down after the loss in the OEX. It was small and I am executing the proper tactics that I have implemented after the huge loss in September. I have been able to stick to the rules and that is a positive. I'm a bit tired from having to get up early but that's part of the process. It is really now time to come up with some strategies for December and beyond. The holiday week will be slow so I guess it's time to relax for a while.
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
The Dow rose 33 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The Fed announcement came out. I had an order for some puts in but adjusted it after the market didn't move much on the Fed news. The market then went on to make a new high and the puts got filled. The market sold off a bit after that and the puts are now slightly profitable. It is a risky trade. Inflation news tomorrow will be the key. I will need to get out of these things relatively quickly with only 2 days to go before expiration. The stop-loss order is in. Gold was a touch lower today. NEM was higher and the calls that I almost got yesterday would have made some money. However the gold shares sold off early and I could have been stopped out for a loss which really would have ticked me off. I still want to go long there but will wait for now. I don't expect much movement after this week because of the holiday. My feeling at this point is to get January calls in ABX or NEM. Mentally I'm feeling good having gotten a good price for the puts. But it could all blow up tomorrow as I well know. The OEX is at the top of the Bollinger band, overbought and I can't see it going that much higher from here. But sideways movement would kill this trade also. The data tomorrow will drive this trade one way or the other. I'll need to be ready to do what it takes to make it work hopefully. I really don't think I'll be holding on until Friday. The market just keeps going higher.
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
The Dow was up 86 points to a new high today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The market sold off early in the day and then roared back to the upside. I guess there is a lot of money to be put to work out there. The inflation report was favorable but retail sales were weak. If anything it looks like deflation by the report today. But that's another story. I did not take any position in the OEX but I am thinking about getting short tomorrow before the release of the Fed minutes. We will be overbought tomorrow. Now we could stay overbought as we have before. It's risky. Gold lost a bit of ground today and the XAU was off a point and a half. I did put in an order for NEM calls. However the charts do not show a definitive buy signal. We are not completely oversold. This potential trade was a case of me just wanting to put a trade on for the sake of making a trade in expiration week. Yes, it could work out but there isn't a good basis for the trade. There were some things in its favor on the short term indicators. But it could just as well not work. I canceled the order. It would have eventually been filled. It very well may have been a winner. We'll find out later in the week. There are 3 days until expiration. Risk is high. I still might try something but it will have to be quick. Mentally I'm getting tired from watching the markets all day. But there will be time to take it easy next week, which will be slow with the Thanksgiving holiday. I am doing the best I can to control myself here and not do anything stupid. It isn't easy...
Monday, November 13, 2006
The Dow was up 23 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. I do not have a clear signal here to trade although I'd like to. It's expiration week and next week is a holiday week. But I can't do anything if there isn't a decent feeling one way or the other. I would like to short it here because we have been up against resistance 3 times and haven't gotten through. But it's just a guess. The fight is against myself. Gold was down $4 today and the XAU sold off and then came back. I had an order for some ABX calls in. ABX sold off to the Bollinger band. It is oversold on a short and longer term basis. But there are only 4 days left on the calls. The risk is huge. I canceled the order but ABX continued to rally. I really want to go out on a longer basis with the gold shares. I'm looking at January but who knows? Perhaps I will still do this trade but it might be too late and it might not be the smart thing to do. Gold and the XAU itself are not oversold. Mentally I'm feeling as if there are a million things going on at the same time here. Expiration week will do that. Everything tradingwise is compressed. I need to focus on what exactly it is that I want to do here. The sidelines might be the wise choice but you don't make any money that way. However you don't lose any either. I'll have to see what the markets are saying tomorrow. There is a ton of economic data being released this week. We'll have to see if it gives the market some direction. I cannot make the market do what I want. I can only hope to try and listen to what it is saying. The tech stocks were strong today and we will not get a major sell-off if that remains the case. Oil was weaker, the dollar was a bit stronger. I need to come up with a gameplan and go from there. It is never easy...
Friday, November 10, 2006
The Dow gained 5 points on light volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1. We sold off and then came back. I had to dump the OEX puts. I would have liked to have held on to them but the market started to rally a bit and the overall market was strong even though the volume was light. The gain on the calls was minimum, about 30%. There was not a lot of money involved. There was more money in the losing ABX call trade as I woke up to be stopped out. Gold did not follow through and was down $7. The XAU lost around 4 points. The volume was lighter though. I lost around 45% on the ABX calls. I chased the move and was punished for being so foolish. You must always be on guard against yourself. Just because I had a nice trade earlier in the week I felt like I actually knew what I was doing. I didn't. ABX wasn't overbought but the XAU and gold were. I got caught up in the moment, when I should have waited for a pullback. It was a dumb move. I've had a lot of them this year. Option expiration week looms and there will be opportunities but it will be hard to trade with not much time left. I will have to come up with some type of gameplan over the weekend. Right now there isn't really a clear signal. I will have to check the economic calendar also. Perhaps it will be a time to sit on the sidelines. We'll see. Mentally I'm tired with such a busy week but I will move on and go from here...
Thursday, November 09, 2006
The Dow lost 73 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative but not by as much as a down 73 market would indicate. That is a problem for me. The OEX puts didn't move that much even though we were down. I really think I need to dump them tomorrow but we'll see. We're not overbought or oversold here so anything could happen. There is no news tomorrow and I think it is a partial holiday for Veterans day. Gold soared today and was up over $15. The XAU rose 6 points as the dollar was weaker. NEM really did well as it has lately and was up 1 3/4. I bought some ABX calls. The volume was very heavy in the gold shares. Why did I get some calls even thought the move has already started? I am thinking that ABX will catch up with the rest of the gold shares. I did not think the order would be filled but it was. I could be wrong and it is a risky play. But the cost wasn't much higher than what I could have got them for yesterday. But the problem is that the action has been in NEM but the options there were way too expensive. We'll see what happens. I think I'm a bit more concerned about the OEX. It is a much harder instrument to trade. So I'll have to keep an eye on 2 positions. Mentally I'm feeling relatively good. Not sleeping as well as I would like but I'm not tired. Tomorrow will be interesting and I'll just have to see how the market goes. Option expiration week is next week so things will be skewed as usual. It is never easy...
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
The Dow rose 20 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are right back up to the recent highs and short term overbought. I bought some OEX puts. It is a risky play but I'm going to try it. The stop-loss order is already in. I also put in an order for some ABX calls but they weren't filled. ABX got back to the Bollinger band and gold sold off over 8 bucks today. The XAU was only down a point and a half. Trade number out tomorrow. No time today to blog. However if I'm in tune with what is happening we should see some weakness tomorrow. But as always that's just a guess. The markets whipped around on the election results and the presidents press conference where he canned the secretary of defense. Mentally I'm maybe a little too optimistic about my trading now after a winning trade. It is always a battle within yourself. More tomorrow.
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
The Dow rose 51 points today on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up higher earlier but sold off in the last couple of hours. I dumped the OEX calls that I had. I certainly could have gotten a better price but I wanted to get out. It was originally just a bounce play and so that's how I played it. They closed higher than what I got for them and that's depressing. You always want to get the best prices for your trades even though that's impossible. I always want to do better. The gain was a little less that 200% and I don't think that's bad but I need to do better. Perhaps I should have held on since we are moving strong. But I am thinking that this will be a double top here and I have an overnight order in to buy some OEX puts. We will be overbought tomorrow as I have said before. I'm going to give the puts a try and keep a close stop on them and we'll see what happens. Gold was little changed and so was the XAU. I do want to get long here and we are just about at the uptrend line that began a couple weeks ago. I'll have to make a decision when we get there but I would like to get some calls. I don't want to spread myself too thin though. And if I'm looking for a decline in the overall market it could take gold with it. But it's all just a guess at this point as it usually is. The OEX call trade was a great set-up. I'm not sure that the puts are but they very well could be. I'm hoping that I didn't exit the calls too soon but that is possible. Mentally I'm a bit tired from not sleeping that good with the recent hot weather. I also don't want to think that I'm invincible after a winning trade. I need to keep grounded and look for the next opportunity. I think that it's here but I'm not sure and never really am. Is anybody? Maybe we'll get a bounce after the election or perhaps the rally will take off again. However for some reason I think what I'm thinking will be right this time so I'm sticking to it. We'll see.
Monday, November 06, 2006
The Dow soared 120 points today. Volume was average and the advances beat the declines by 3 to 1. Are we going to new highs? Or is this the bounce I was looking for and that's it? These are questions that must be answered. I must admit I did not expect such a powerful rally out of nowhere. The OEX calls are making money but now the question becomes when to sell them. The market will be overbought by Wednesday. But it can stay that way for quite a while as just seen. Will we rally after the election? I don't know. I've moved up the stop-loss order so this trade will be profitable. But by how much? I really think I'm going to bail out by the close Wednesday unless something happens to change my mind. Gold was down a couple bucks today and the XAU sold off by a point and a half. I do want to get long some gold shares and will probably go out until next month or January. That is my thinking right now. NEM seems to be stronger than ABX this time around. That is what I'm seeing lately. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling good after the weekend and having the market move as expected. But there is still much work to be done and the exit of this trade is the next challenge. It never is easy. I'll have to check todays statistics and go from there. I'm also still looking at SUNH for the long term. If it gets back into single digits, I'm a buyer and maybe even if it doesn't. But the question for now is if todays rally was for real and we should have some answers in the coming days.
Friday, November 03, 2006
The Dow was down 32 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. Down 6 days in a row on the Dow now. Who would of thought? The employment report was in line with expectations. Bonds dropped. We are really oversold here. I bought some OEX calls for a bounce. I am getting a signal to buy. The stop-loss order is in. I feel that this will be a winner but I don't think it will be a big one. However I have to act on the signals that I get or it is all just for naught. I would like to get short again after a bounce. Will it bounce? I believe so. Gold was up another buck today after selling off early. You just can't keep this market down. There seems to be a shift back into gold in a big way here. I will try and get long if there ever is a pullback. Longer term this looks like a trade to be in. I might possibly go out to January. We'll see. NEM seems to be acting better than ABX here. The volume has been pretty good into these issues. But perhaps it is too late in the short term. Mentally I'm doing as good as can be expected. It is the weekend but I have been busy outside of the markets lately which makes it tough to concentrate on what needs to be done. It is extremely difficult sometimes to keep things separate but it must be done. I am going to try and relax over the weekend and come back fresh on Monday.
Thursday, November 02, 2006
The Dow was down 12 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. We are short term oversold. I put in an order for OEX calls but it wasn't filled. Employment report tomorrow. I may try and get long any weakness in the morning. I think this is a short term opportunity and a good one. Gold was up 8 bucks and the XAU was only up about a half a point. We have run into resistance here for the XAU. I think it will break through eventually but not just yet. Gold has rallied strong this week but the gold shares seemed to move in advance of it. I do want to get long there though. Mentally I just got back from the dentist so my mind is clouded by that. I think a trade is here, it's a matter of if I can get it in the morning. We'll see.
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
The Dow lost 50 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. We should see the summation index turn down here. But this has happened before and the market steamed ahead. We are short term oversold here and I expect the market to move higher in the near term. However after a few days here it could get interesting to the downside. It may be time to buy some puts next week. We'll see. It was an interesting day for gold as it rose $13 and NEM came out with good earnings. However the XAU was basically unchanged. The volume was very heavy on the gold shares. ABX reports tomorrow. We are at resistance here for the XAU. But I would think we would bust through with all the volume. NEM was up about 40 cents but was much higher earlier. Don't know what to make of it all but I would like to get long some gold stocks on a pullback. When there is good news and the market doesn't rally on it, it usually means a decline of some sort is coming. But who knows? Getting back to the overall market perhaps the players are beginning to figure out that a slowdown is coming. That's what I think. But it's just a guess. The momentum market we have just experienced could be over and they never end good. Mentally I think I might be about to get a handle on things here but we'll have to see how things play out. A lower dollar will help support the price of gold also and it could be a place to hide if we get a substantial pullback. But that all remains to be seen at this point. Employment report on Friday will probably be the next market mover.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
The Dow lost 5 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about even. We were higher and lower for the last day of the month. No real direction. I expect some money flow for the beginning of next month. Gold was little changed but the XAU rose 3 and 1/2 points. Again, I have missed out. NEM and ABX were both higher, although the volume on ABX wasn't that hot. NEM reports tomorrow. I canceled my open order for calls. Never got close to being filled. I might think about re-entering it if NEM goes down on the earnings but I doubt it. ABX earnings on Thursday. These issues are overbought but that means nothing lately as the overall market has proved lately. We'll see what happens but I am not happy about missing out on gold. But what can you do? You just have to move on. It is a very frustrating game at times. You somehow have got to keep going. Losses and misses. You might even begin to question why you are even in the game. Perseverance is the key in times like these. You've got to stick to it. There will be other opportunities but at the moment it doesn't matter. Mentally it's tough to go on. They say missed money is better than lost money but it sure feels the same. It's a crazy game. Well, I guess we'll see how the earnings come out.
Monday, October 30, 2006
The Dow lost 3 points on light volume. Advance/declines were slightly positive. No news or events to drive the market today. Employment report this week and that's about it. End of quarter tomorrow. Gold was up around 6 bucks today. The XAU rose less than a point. Don't really know what to make of that. I still have the open order for NEM calls but I will cancel it if it doesn't get filled tomorrow with the earnings now out on Wednesday. Suppose I'll just have to wait for something else. Perhaps I can do ABX if NEM doesn't have a good report. Or I can wait. The technicals are overbought for the XAU right now so buying calls here may not be the smartest thing to do. I don't have any good ideas right now. Perhaps will look to short this thing at some point in this option cycle. But you never know. Mentally I'm looking forward to the gold share earnings and the markets reaction. I could stay on the sidelines. I'm thinking now that perhaps they ran up in anticipation of the good news to come. But that's just a guess. Not much else to say here...
Friday, October 27, 2006
The Dow actually went down 73 points today on average volume. This is the first legitimate down day in quite some time. Advance/declines were negative. Does it mean anything? Probably not but we'll see. GDP came in weaker than expected. So the so-called soft landing now is suspect. I've given my economic forecast before. Inverted yield curve will lead to a recession and the tip-off will be when copper goes below $3. That's my guess. Gold was up a buck to around $600 but the XAU was down a point. The dollar was weaker here too. I adjusted the NEM trade down a notch but left the order open. Both ABX and NEM were down on average volume. I'm still sticking with the higher price theory here. Earnings for both on Thursday. I don't like the fact that the technicals are at the high end of the range but that could be worked off early next week. Honestly, you never know how the market will react to the earnings. But the way the open interest expanded for NEM, that will probably be the play. Hopefully there will be a sell-off there early next week for portfolio adjustment but that is just a hope. Mentally I'm feeling good and am ready for the next trade. Perhaps there will be a chance to eventually short this thing in November after all. But that's a dicey proposition at this point. For now it's the weekend and time to take a break...
Thursday, October 26, 2006
The Dow up 29 points on good volume again. Advance/declines over 2 to 1 positive. It's a broken record. Will nothing derail this thing? Overall market stronger than the Dow. What can I say? We're on a momentum run and there is no stopping it at this point. I'm thankful that I have stopped trying to short it. But still, this is insane. We've seen it before but I certainly had no idea that it would happen now. Gold was up over 9 dollars and the XAU was off fractionally. The opposite of Monday when gold was down big and the XAU rose. Perhaps we will cool off here for a bit on the XAU. I still have an open order for NEM calls. Might switch to ABX if it drops enough but that may not happen. Earnings a week from today on both issues. Open interest expanded more on NEM during this rise so I'm leaning that way. But who knows? Microsoft announced after the bell and has sold off just a touch. GDP tomorrow and my hope is that it is stronger than expected and the dollar firms leading gold lower. The Dollar was lower today. The XAU is overbought here so I need a pullback to pick up some calls. Even so, this trade may not work but I am going to give it a try. Mentally not much to say today. Just waiting for an opening on the gold long side. Trying to stay positive and do what is necessary. Just have to keep going here...
Wednesday, October 25, 2006
The Dow was up 6 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. Nothing seems to be able to keep this market down. The Fed left rates unchanged. My prognosis was wrong. There was no hawkish statement. Still overbought and staying there. It just goes on and on. There is nothing else to do but watch. Gold was up around 3 bucks and the XAU rose almost 4 points. There is no pullback. I have an open order for some NEM calls but it probably won't get filled. I might try and just get something before the earnings next week because the volume says this move is for real. Gold moves dramatically sometimes and in both directions. I expect the earnings to be good but I haven't been right about anything in quite some time. We'll see what happens. Probably should have been buying calls on Monday. It is always easy to look back. Mentally what can I say? It is no fun being wrong all the time. The heavy losses I sustained before have now caused me to it on my hands when I should have been trading. That is the problem. You get gun shy and end up not doing anything when you should be trading. That's why losses are killers. You lose your confidence. And there is no place to go. You have to somehow forget about your past mistakes and move on. It isn't easy. Discipline is not to be taken for granted. The markets are unrelenting. If it was easy, everybody would be successful. Tough game.
Tuesday, October 24, 2006
The Dow was up 11 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. Overbought again and what else is new? Fed announcement tomorrow. The market just continues to go higher. Until there is a change, there is nothing else to say. Gold came back around 5 bucks and the XAU was fractionally higher. I'm still looking to get some calls here if we have a pullback. If not then I'll be on the sidelines. I might switch to NEM calls if the price gets low enough. Earnings for both ABX and NEM are next week on Thursday, so I'd like to be positioned before then. But the market knows this so I'm not the only one looking at things here. Sun Healthcare continues higher but as I said before that will be a long term holding and not a trade. Earnings there next week I believe. So today the overall market was weaker than the Dow again. I now see the volume was heavy. So maybe we fall a bit tomorrow. I'm looking for the Fed to come out with a hawkish statement with bonds and stocks to fall. That should support the dollar and send gold lower. That is my guess. And a guess is all it is because regardless of what everyone says, nobody really knows. Mentally I'm a bit stressed with computer problems this morning that required outside technical help and delayed my access to market information. These things happen and fortunately it was a slow day trading for me personally. So I'm a little drained and will end this blog.
Monday, October 23, 2006
The market was up 114 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive but not by a lot. How long can this go on? Nobody knows. But the internals are starting to get weaker on the advance. The McClellan oscillator has another non-conformation. Eventually there will be a decent decline. I have tried to pick it and now I have stopped. The market is not functioning under normal circumstances. It is a momentum run and they never finish good. Something will trigger the inevitable reverse. Perhaps the Fed on Wednesday. But it is all just a guess. Gold was down over $13 and the XAU rose a point and a half? Try and figure that out. The gold shares had good volume. It makes no sense. I would still like to get some ABX calls but I won't overpay for them. This too, is not the conventional movement given the change in the underlying. What am I to do I ask myself? Sit tight for now I suppose. Mentally I'm confused and so I must wait for better times I guess. But we all know how that goes. Most of all I must protect myself from myself and what a difficult challenge that always is. So it goes with trading. Perhaps tomorrow will shed some light on things.
Friday, October 20, 2006
The Dow lost 9 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. I was able to make it through the day without doing any stupid trades. On to the November cycle. I am disappointed about missing out on Sun Healthcare. I have been wanting to buy that stock on a pullback for some time as a long term holding. But a pullback has never came and now it is going to the moon. It announced some type of takeover today and was up over 10%. I will have to look for another low priced issue in this area. These are long term ideas and do not involve trading. Gold was off around 6 bucks and the XAU lost over 2 points. Volume was light though and I'm a buyer of ABX calls on this pullback. Hopefully sometime next week. I just hope I'm good enough to pull it off. We'll see what happens. And who knows, I could be wrong of course. But that will be the next play. Mentally there isn't much to say. Trying to forget the huge losses this month. Trying not to be down about missing SUNH. You somehow have to put things behind you and go on. I've made mistakes before and I will again. I just can't let that stop me from going forward in the future. Trading is tough. There are no excuses. You're either good enough or you're not. These past few months haven't been my best. But I will try and put it behind me and continue. I'll check the charts over the weekend and get ready for next week...
Thursday, October 19, 2006
The Dow was up another 19 points on good volume to close above 12000 for the first time. Advance/declines were positive. Got a sell signal on the McClellan oscillator last night and I had to fight myself not to buy any puts today. Expiration tomorrow. I will be pleased if I can stop myself from doing something stupid. The sell signals lately have just not worked and it doesn't look like that one will either but we'll see. It's a momentum market and the usual things just won't work. Gold was up $10 today and the XAU rose over 4 points. Volume was good. It looks like I have missed the boat here. But that's what happens when you've had so many bad trades. You just get into a funk and you really need some thing to break out of it. ABX moved much higher and the calls have gotten away from me. There is a slight possibility that I might move to a higher strike price but that remains to be seen. There is a ton of premium in the calls so I think that everybody knows that they will work. Perhaps it has to do with the upcoming earnings. I don't know but I am going to keep an eye on them and if I get the chance that will be the next trade. Mentally I'm not in a good place missing out on the gold. However I may get a chance there and might switch to NEM. The relative strength is with Barrick though and that really should be the play. Not much else on the radar. Fed next wednesday. We will probably be in a holding pattern until then after tomorrow. Google after the bell and it looks like it's in a rally. However Sandisk looks like it's getting killed. Who knows?
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
The Dow rose 42 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was weaker. The NASDAQ was down and the S&P was only up a point or so. The inflation data was benign. I think we are approaching a top here. I may try and short this thing before expiration. We'll see. Perhaps I should hold off and I will let the action dictate what I do. Very risky. Gold was little changed, down a little. The XAU lost over 2 points and the volume picked up a bit. I am still looking to get long ABX calls for November at some point. Earnings on November 2nd. We'll see. I think that is the next play. Volatility is returning to the overall market. That could bode well for the puts. Or not. Earnings continue to come out decent so far. They will probably be good next quarter as well with the sell-off in energy. Oil broke $58 today. Mentally I'm feeling fine, trying not to do anything stupid between now and the end of the week. The Fed meets next week and I expect no change. Otherwise it's a waiting game now, watching gold and the gold shares.
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
The Dow lost 30 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were off 90 points early but then came back. Is this the beginning of the long awaited downturn? Who knows? Tech earnings are coming out after the bell and they are mixed so far. Inflation data tomorrow morning also. I almost bought some puts after the bell but did not. As usual the battle lies within myself. Gold was off about $5. The XAU sold off early but then came back to be off just a touch. ABX came back too and the volume was good again. I am still looking to get some calls here but will not chase it. I may have missed it, time will tell. I would really like to make some money this week. I need a good trade because it has been quite a while since I've had one. Mentally I'm doing what I can to stay positive after the recent heavy losses. It isn't easy. You've got to just keep on going in the game. I have at least finally learned that cutting losses is just as important as making money. It is imperative. My best teachers are losing trades. However if that was the case, I'd have a PhD by now and be teaching the class.
Monday, October 16, 2006
The Dow was up another 20 points today on average volume. Nothing can stop it from 12000 so it seems. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. It implies even higher prices. I will have to fight myself not to short this thing sometime this week. We'll see. Gold was up a few bucks and the XAU was higher too. Volume is coming into the gold shares here for whatever reason. I am going to get some ABX calls if there is a pullback. We have inflation data out the next couple of days. They are potential market movers along with some tech earnings. Right now we are on a momentum swing. As long as we keep going higher, money will continue to flow into this market. I certainly don't want to try and fight that. The question is what happens when it ends? That will be interesting. For now there is no end in sight. We are overbought and have been for weeks. I may get a short term sell signal later in the week but that remains to be seen. Mentally I'm doing as good as can be expected, considering how much money I have lost recently. It has to be forgotten and the next trade must take center stage. It is the only way to go on. Not much else to say. It is Monday of expiration week. The will be opportunity here but I think I will prefer to go out to November. Time will tell.
Friday, October 13, 2006
The Dow was up another 12 points today. Volume was a bit lighter than lately however the advance/declines were positive. The overall market was higher. I had to fight myself not to buy some puts today. The trend is up and I cannot fight that. Every time I try I get burned. Yet there is something that tells me that when it starts to drop, it's going to be big. I need to fight that though because it hasn't worked yet and it is foolish to try and pick the top. That said, who knows what will happen next week? Gold was up $12 and the XAU rose over 3 points. ABX was up on good volume. I suppose I will be looking for a light volume pullback to get long here. That really should be my next trade. Money is flowing back into gold here, for whatever reason. I'll need to check the charts this weekend but that looks like the next thing. However you just never know there either but I think enough people have lost money there now. It is off the radar screen and I have had some decent gold trades in the past. I'll go out to December if necessary but will try November also. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good today and I don't know why. Perhaps because I didn't do anything stupid today. Maybe it's the pre-weekend high. At any rate expiration week looms and I'm sure that I will try some type of trade next week. We'll see.
Thursday, October 12, 2006
The Dow was up 95 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. I lost on the puts again and got stopped out. It was a dumb trade. I already knew it yesterday. It was a trade for the sake of trading. It lost about 35%. I guess I need to step back and take a break. I haven't had a winning trade in months. It's as if I'm starting out all over again. Last years good profits are like they never happened. I'm in a bad way. Nothing I'm doing is working and I am either wrong or missing something. This market is on a momentum feed and nothing will stop it at this point. The money just keeps going in on the upside. I've seen it before but I did not expect it now. There is nothing to do but watch and wait at this point. Gold was up a few bucks and the XAU rose over 3 points. I'd like to get some ABX calls but may have missed out here too. I was also thinking about some GE puts with the earnings coming out tomorrow. But when I'm in such a funk as I am now, it's probably better if I just sit it out. Mentally I'm in a bad way. I'm losing money, have had my worst month ever and don't have a clue. It's not a good place to be. I must somehow persevere in this negative environment. I have got to somehow snap out of it. We'll see what happens...
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
The Dow lost 15 points on increased volume. Advance/declines were negative. I bought some OEX puts. I have already put in the stop-loss order. This is probably another dumb trade but the market cannot go up forever. The money risk is minimal. I'm just guessing the top is here as I did before. We'll see. Gold didn't move much today but the XAU lost over 2 points. ABX was down good on heavy volume. I'm looking here but the market seems to say it wants to go down here. People are still just selling off commodities. I am looking to November here but it might be a bit early. Not sure so I'm staying on the sidelines for now. Mentally I'm afraid that perhaps I did this trade for the sake of trading. It happens. I don't have a clear signal but the McClellan oscillator did flash a sell signal yesterday. However today could have been it for the decline. We'll know more tomorrow. Trading isn't easy. It really is tough sometimes. I'm trying my best here and feel good about the fact that I am at least exercising some risk control. But the bottom line is profit and I'm down for the year after my latest fiasco. We'll see what happens with this trade...
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
The Dow picked up 9 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Not much movement today. No trades on the horizon there. Gold was down around 5 bucks but the XAU rose over a point. I'm looking to do something on the long side there. But I am waiting for the bottom if I can find it. Earnings are starting to come out and Alcoa missed after the bell. I don't know how that will affect the overall market tomorrow. It still has the feel of a market that wants to go higher. I haven't gotten a decent technical signal in a while. Mentally I'm just hanging out and waiting. Sometimes that is the hardest thing to do. I would like to try another trade before expiration but I'll need to get a decent signal first. Not sure that is going to happen. Otherwise, it's a waiting game.
Monday, October 09, 2006
The Dow was up 7 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. It still seems like the market wants to go higher. Rising oil, North Korea problems and still the market wants to go up. Nothing is sending it into a sell-off. How long can this go on? I would like to try and get short again. Gold was up $5 but the XAU lost some ground. Volume was light there also. I'm looking at getting long for November gold. Just a thought at this point but I'm leaning that way. If there is another sell-off in the gold shares, I'm going to give it a try. Otherwise there is really nothing on my horizon. Less than 2 weeks until expiration so I'd like to try and do something. Mentally I'm just trying to wait for a good signal, follow the rules and not trade just for tradings sake. It isn't an easy task but nothing is in this game.
Friday, October 06, 2006
The Dow lost 16 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow but we have seen this before. It seems like nothing can drive this market down. It is up, up and away. I feel like just putting the money in my mutual funds and forgetting about it. But we all know better than that. Just when you think the market can't go down, it will. Harder and faster than most will believe. I have been very wrong lately but the next trade could be another good one. Gold was up a touch and the XAU was little changed. I'm looking here again for a trade. I need to check the charts. This week could be the end of the decline. Mentally I'm doing OK considering how much money in losses I booked this week. I have vowed to never let that happen again and this time it's for real. I might have some medical issues coming up since I have to go to the doctor again next week but nothing will deter me from my ultimate goal of successful trading. I was having a good year and then just blew it out like a fool. However I will be making a comeback. That's the plan. The employment report took the bond market down but the stock market seems to be shrugging it off. Earnings begin next week and we'll see where we go from there.
Thursday, October 05, 2006
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
The Dow continues higher, up 123 points today. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. I had put in another overnight order for puts. It was filled and then I was stopped out for a small loss. I finally followed the rules. That is the only saving grace from the substantial losses that just occurred. I will always follow the rules from now on. I dumped the other puts at heavy losses today. It was way beyond the time to do so. I was stupid and I paid for it. But I finally learned an important lesson that I hope I don't soon forget. The big loser was 90% of the trade and the other was 60%. These are killers and I am now down on the year. I will never lose that much on a trade again. Never. It won't happen. Stop-loss orders will be placed as soon as the trades are filled. This is something that I have known for some time but I have been too stubborn to do because I think my trades will always be winners. That is lunacy. My trades are usually losers so I will now protect myself from myself. The volume has told the story here as we continue higher. I just did not want to listen to it. That was dumb. The market has gone up regardless of the news and that should tell you something. The news doesn't matter right now. Money is simply flowing out of oil, gold and other commodities and into the stock and bond markets. I don't know how long that will last but there is no sense in trying to fight it. I need to also remember to keep a sane and open mind when I have a position. Because I usually just try and fit things into the trades that I take. Objectivity must be maintained. It has to. The recent losses have put a lot of things in perspective. How I trade from here will be interesting. There is still plenty of time this year to turn things back around. We'll see what happens. I'm out of time today.
Tuesday, October 03, 2006
The Dow was up 57 points to a new all time high. Volume was good. Advance/declines were slightly positive. That is the problem here. The overall market is not confirming the move in the Dow at all. That is why I bought puts and the situation hasn't changed. This market will fall but my timing was off. The indicators just remained overbought as they are now. But it will happen. Gold got pounded today, down over $20. The XAU lost over 8 points. Volume was heavy as money continues to pour out of commodities and into the stock market. Oil was down big too. I think a recession is coming but the market doesn't think so. Mentally I'm sitting tight, waiting to take my big losses. It's only Tuesday so we will have to see how the week closes out. Employment report on Friday. The market continues to defy the indicators. Just how long can that go on?
Monday, October 02, 2006
The Dow closed down 8 points in light volume trading. Advance/declines were negative. The overall market was much weaker with the S&P500 down over 4 points and the Nasdaq down 20. The OEX didn't move much and the puts are still big losers. I'll need quite a down move to salvage the losses and that isn't in the cards at the moment. I expect one more move to the upside and then maybe a decent downdraft. But that is a guess as usual. Gold was down a couple bucks and the XAU was up a little. Not much else to say on a Monday. Mentally I'm getting it together in a way that I hope will bring success. Discipline will be the key.
Friday, September 29, 2006
The Dow lost about 40 points today. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. The market wants to go higher. The technicals seem to point to another high. Light volume declines mean nothing. We will be short term oversold in no time. Gold was off over $5 today and the XAU was down a point or so. Of course I am about to book one of my biggest losses ever in the OEX. It was foolish. I am going to try and turn it into a positive though by going over my trading scheme and making some changes. Sometimes the biggest losers can become the greatest teachers. My risk control is terrible. It must be addressed or I will never get anywhere. I broke one of the rules with this trade and that should never happen. It was really stupid on my part. I hope I never do it again. The discipline wasn't there. It must be or trading just won't work. I need to take an honest look at just what happened to prevent it from happening again. It is a tough game. I'm always toughest on myself and I have to be. It's a business and must be treated as such for success. My results up to now have been lacking, even with big winners. From now on things will change or I will have to think of something else to do. I've invested a lot of time and money into this venture. I cannot afford to have to throw it all away due to my lack of discipline. I've got to make some changes and I've got to start right now.
Thursday, September 28, 2006
The Dow was up 29 points on light volume. We are almost at an all-time high on the Dow. The other indices are nowhere near their highs. This is the most non confirmations that I have ever seen. I can't explain it. The market does what it wants. My puts are a disaster. Even with 3 weeks left they are all going to be big losers. I will have to change the way that I do things here. There is no other way to go about it. Gold didn't do much today. The XAU was higher early and then sold off. Todays post is short as I have other things to take care of.
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
The Dow was up another 20 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The market keeps pushing higher and there is no stopping it at this point. I need to bail out of all my positions. It doesn't matter anymore. The puts are losers. Gold was up today and the XAU rallied another couple of points. Missed that opportunity. I guess I need to take a break. My trading has been horrible. But somehow, you have to keep moving on. No discipline and stupid moves. There are no excuses. Mentally I'm tired and will feel a sense of relief when I book the losses and step aside. I guess I just wasn't up to the challenge. My own stubbornness got in the way. I misread the market and it cost me. I was so sure that my ideas would work, it clouded my judgment about what was really going on. But where do I go from here? Will I actually learn something for a change or will I just keep on with the same bullshit that happens time and time again? Who knows? Maybe there are too many other things on my mind. Losses always bring self doubt. I'll keep at it and maybe one of these days I'll get it right.
Tuesday, September 26, 2006
The Dow surged another 93 points today. Volume was good and the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. The market is just moving higher, there is no reason. The shorts, such as myself, are getting squeezed to death. I am an idiot for buying more puts today. They are already losers. The other puts I bought are so under water that nothing will save them. I have really made things difficult for myself. I will probably be banking the losses this week and then taking some time off again. There are no excuses. Perhaps I just don't have the discipline that it takes. I certainly don't have it right now. I will be sustaining some of my biggest losses ever here. There is no one to blame but myself. My whole ideas were way off. The market just keeps going higher. There are some vast divergences and yet nothing is happening to the downside. I haven't seen anything like it at this rate. The market just keeps going up. I need to get on the sidelines and watch for a while, I guess. It is not a good feeling. It sucks. I am about to go negative on the year. I broke one of the cardinal rules and risked way too much on one trade. I'm an idiot. There is nothing else to say. Gold was up a little but the XAU rose almost 4 points. Perhaps I should have looked there for a decent trade. All the talk about an extra week on the options just lulled me into a false sense of security. It was stupid. I don't know how to write about what I feel right now. I'm pretty mad also. How could I again do something so wrong? The indicators just didn't work, yet if you can't use them, what good are they? It is the most disheartening thing in the world. To put in all the time and effort. Then just watch as the money just goes away in a hurry. There is nothing else too say...
Monday, September 25, 2006
The Dow continues higher. Up 68 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The market just keeps heading higher. I am getting killed with the puts I own. I should perhaps sell them and try again. It is painful but my idea was just wrong and I have compounded the problem by risking way too much. These are mistakes that just shouldn't happen. Perhaps I was just anxious to trade since I had been on the sidelines for so long. My normal discipline wasn't there. Of course there is always a chance that the market will go my way but it's doubtful now. Maybe I was lulled into a false sense of apathy with an extra week on the options. I don't know. But the fact remains that we are heading higher and the signs do not point to any significant downturn on the horizon. Quite the contrary, we are overbought and staying there and that isn't a good sign for puts. Not much else to do now at this point I suppose but cut the loss. Gold was up a touch and the XAU broke to new lows and then came back but was still off over a point today. I need to look at the charts here. Could be time to get long. Mentally I'm about spent, with the angst from a big losing trade on my head. The mental capital used up in losing trades is hard to recover from. It takes up a lot of time and effort and isn't worth it. Better risk control parameters must be used. Sometimes you just get it wrong. Sometimes the indicators don't work. It's no excuse to break the rules.
Friday, September 22, 2006
The Dow lost 25 points today. Volume dried up, it was light. Advance/declines were negative. It was a lackluster day. Nobody really wanted to buy or sell. The puts I own are still losing money. I would like to sell them but don't really want to book the loss and try again. The weekly chart looks like it is about to roll over. If it does than the puts will work. But there are a lot of ifs. Light volume is never a good sign but we really haven't gotten the down move that I have expected or traded for. We'll see what happens next week. Gold was up $7 and the XAU did not move with it. I suppose I'll have to stay away from there for now. Back to the puts on the OEX. There are 4 weeks left on them. The entry was wrong. Perhaps time will bail me out, who knows? The summation index has yet to give a firm sell signal and that's a problem too. I anticipated a move and I was wrong. I'm going to have to think things over the weekend. Mentally I am not feeling well. I've been a bit ill lately. I don't know why. Trading is difficult. It is time consuming. It is the toughest game in the world. You have to be up to the challenge. The skills required for success are enormous. There are no shortcuts and there are no excuses.
Thursday, September 21, 2006
Who knows if this blog will post? This site is pretty lame. The Dow lost 80 points on increased volume. Advance/declines were negative. I'm definitely not sold on this decline. The internals don't look like they are ready to drop significantly. I could be wrong. We'll see about tomorrow. My puts are still losing big time. I think I might have a chance to take a small loss but only if we get a big downdraft. As I said when I purchased them, there are an extra week on these options. That might be what saves me. Or not. I really did not time this trade on the entry very well and I paid way too much for what I got. But what can you do? Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU rose over a point. No real interest there even though the dollar fell. We should be getting some earnings pre-announcements soon. That could help take us down. Perhaps the summation index is pointing down but not decidedly yet. Mentally I'm feeling better now that my trip to the dentist is over. But really, I'm stuck in a bad trade. I really need to get out and try again. But I do think that I might be able to just get out with a small loss, if I'm lucky. The trouble is now I'm tied up in this trade and there are others to be had. It wouldn't be so bad but I put more money than I should have in this and do not want to risk any more at this point. And so it goes. If you don't have the discipline to stick with the trading rules than you will pay the price. The markets are a tough game to play.
Wednesday, September 20, 2006
The site did not work again at 1pm so this is brief. The market was up over 70 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. I am getting killed with the puts. I may have to just get out and take the loss. I obviously was wrong. My prognosis did not materialize. I should have stuck to the rules and not traded so many contracts. You get what you deserve. I will wait to see how the week closes out but these things were wrong. My timing was way off. The Fed left rates unchanged. Otherwise it was just another good up day in the ongoing trend. The market is telling you that prices are going higher. The puts won't work.
Tuesday, September 19, 2006
The Dow lost 14 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. There were some overseas coup rumblings in Thailand that sent the market lower. Inflation news was tame but housing continues weak. Fed meeting announcement tomorrow. I still own the puts but we haven't seen the decline begin in earnest as I expected. I was early on the buy-in and I am losing money. I don't know if this will work now but I do anticipate a decent down day this week. I thought that it might be today but I guess not. Gold was down again and the XAU hit fresh lows. Oil has gotten clobbered here lately too. Money is coming out of commoditites and into the stock market. I am guessing that is what is holding us up. I am getting very wary of this put trade. I am not seeing the summation index signal as I would have liked to by now. I mean that could change in a day but it hasn't yet. Todays action doesn't help anything either. Perhaps my whole line of thinking is just wrong. There was no post yesterday since I played golf. I also took part of today off. I have a dentist appointment before the close on Thursday. Mentally I'm wary as I said before. Perhaps the Fed meeting will be the catalyst to the downside. Yahoo pre-announced that the earnings wouldn't meet expectations and we did not sell-off that much. So I'm worried. We'll see what happens in the next few days. Tomorrow could be key.
Friday, September 15, 2006
The Dow gained 33 points on expiration heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. My OEX puts have lost some value. The inflation data came in as expected. We opened higher and stayed there all day. I am disappointed that I did not get a better price for the puts that I bought. I could have really saved some money there. Perhaps I was a bit anxious. I still feel that this trade will be a winner. We remain overbought but as each day passes the chance of a downturn increases in my opinion. There are divergences or potential divergences. We'll see what happens next week. As always, the market will do what it wants. However I think the second half of September will be weaker. I also think earnings pre-announcements in the beginning of October will send the markets lower. Time will tell. Gold lost a few bucks today and the XAU gained a point and a half. Volume was very heavy there in the gold shares. Are we at a bottom there? I don't know. I will need to check the charts over the weekend. Mentally I'm a bit tired. I am almost caught up on my readings. I am trying to remain objective about this trade. If we continue strong to the upside I will have to get out and take the loss. There is an extra week on these options, which I've mentioned before. That should keep the premium high. Again, I think this weeks action to the upside was more option related than anything else and next week will be the key. Fed announcement on Wednesday and we will take it from there.
Thursday, September 14, 2006
The Dow was down 16 points on lighter volume. Advance/declines were negative. The put options I own didn't do much. We are overbought and could stay there. But I feel this is a trade that will work. Inflation data tomorrow and option expiration. Could skew the markets. We'll see. The action today really had no conviction one way or the other. I saw a lot of volume in some OEX out of the money call options. Only one day left. Gold lost a couple bucks but the gold stocks fell hard, down another 5 points. There is no let up in selling there. I'll look to buy some calls eventually. Mentally I'm doing OK for now. I've continued my reading and I'm doing the work required to be successful at this point. I'm a bit worried that I have bought the puts too soon but even so I think they will be winners. There is an extra week on the October options. Early next week should be a wait and see pattern for the Fed on Wednesday. That's it for today.
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
The Dow tacked on another 45 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The market seems to want to go higher here. I bought some OEX October puts. This was the day that I had targeted and I did it. We are overbought as of tomorrow. I paid more than I wanted and would have gotten a better price if I had waited a while longer. But the purchase was made. The summation index is pointing higher but I bought the puts now. My thought is that it is the right thing to do. I think the recent gains are option expiration week related and not the beginning of some big up move. There will be a divergence on the McClellan oscillator and on the RSI unless we continue much higher. I have put more money into this trade than usual. I am confident here but don't want to be overconfident. Anything can happen in the market, that is for sure. Gold was up a touch but not much. The XAU is trying to stabilize. It was up about a point. Mentally I'm tired as I did not sleep all that good and had to try and enter this trade. It's all about the entry, managing the trade and the exit. This is my first trade in months. I have been patient and I feel that this will be a profitable venture. It seems to me that I have seen what is going on in the market here before. I did get the closer to the money puts and I think that was a good idea. Retail sales tomorrow and inflation news on Friday. We'll see.
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
The Dow gained 101 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index should be back to pointing up. So now we have a dilemma. I want to get the OEX puts but the market is signaling higher prices. I had said tomorrow would be the day to buy puts. I think I'm going to stick with that. The puts I'd like to get are getting very reasonable pricewise. It is option expiration week and that could skew the prices one way or the other. If we go higher tomorrow, some divergences will appear. I have been waiting for this trade and I'm going to do it. I think it will be a good one. As always, I could be wrong. The market does strange things sometimes. There is an extra week on these options so they are pricey. None the less, if we get any strength tomorrow I'm getting them. There should be some early follow thru. We'll see. Gold was down a bit today and we are under $600. The XAU broke 130. Volume was good here as it tried to rally but the money is leaving as quick as it can. The money from commodities is finding a home in stocks. I think that is why we are rising here. Just a guess. But we are entering what should be a period of weakness. I'm going to do it. Mentally I'm trying to stay true to my conviction about getting the puts here. I'm ready to do it. Unless we are down from the open, I'll be buying some puts.
Monday, September 11, 2006
The Dow gained 4 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. I'm still looking to purchase OEX puts for October. We should get some type of rally here in the next couple of sessions because we are short term oversold. I am aiming for Wednesday to buy some puts. But it may not happen if we just start to fall from here. Hard to say. My mind is pretty much made up on this one though. Some data out this week and it is an expiration week. Inflation news on Friday. I hope to own the puts before then. Trying not to get too ahead of myself though. Gold lost over $20 today and the XAU got hammered, down almost 10 points. Buying puts there would have been a great trade. I don't know what that market is trying to say. Higher interest rates maybe, since it's been tied to the dollar for a while now. No inflation, as it used to be a proxy for that. Or perhaps just dollar strength to be seen ahead? It's anybodies guess, really. The XAU is at critical support here at 130. If that doesn't hold, 100 is the next stop. But really, the next trade is the OEX. Mentally I'm just trying to keep it together and not get too excited because nothing has really happened yet. The market could also do a fake-out and go higher here to new highs for the move. It isn't easy. But the warning signs are in place. It is time to get short I believe. We'll see what happens...
Friday, September 08, 2006
The Dow rose 60 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. I now have to decide when to buy some OEX puts. The market has told its story. The decline that has begun is for real. It's option expiration week coming up and that could give me a chance to purchase. But the timing will be difficult. There is an outside chance that we could set a new high for the year. There is also a chance that we could just start to fall. It isn't easy. I am thinking now that the day to buy puts for October will be Wednesday. But that could change. I'll need to check the economic calendar for next week. But the next trade is set. It's just a matter of when. Gold was down 7 bucks today and the XAU fell over 4 points. The volume was good on the gold shares. I need to find the long term uptrend line there and look to get long when it gets there. I don't know what the recent metals weakness is signaling. Dollar strength or perhaps economic weakness? Not sure but I'm concentrating on the overall market here. Mentally I'm trying not to get too excited over the upcoming trade. I really think that this will be one of the better opportunities this year. I am probably going to risk more than usual because of that. I need to work over the charts this weekend, establish targets and then develop the gameplan. The time is near...
Thursday, September 07, 2006
The Dow lost 75 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Have I missed it? Could be. But I still feel that I have a chance to purchase puts sometime next week and then hold on for good gains. I could be wrong. But my thoughts seem to be in the right place so far. Now if we just drop from here, then I misjudged things and that is possible. The summation index has now rolled over I believe. We should get some attempt at a rally next week and that will be my chance to get the October OEX puts. Gold got clobbered today, down over $15. The XAU lost over 5 points. The volume increased to the downside yesterday on the gold shares and the decline is for real. The XAU charts breakout above 150 was false and I thought that could be the case. It was a bull trap. I should have tried to play it. Perhaps there will be another chance next week there also. Mentally I'm a bit tired even though I have been getting enough sleep. I am trying to concentrate on what needs to be done here and not get upset for missing the latest trade when the order wasn't filled. Who knows, maybe I'll try the upside for expiration week. But I doubt it. For now it's a matter of waiting for some type of rally and then picking the options that I'd like to buy. I think this has the potential to be the biggest trade of the year but I don't want to get my hopes up too high.
Wednesday, September 06, 2006
The Dow lost 63 points on increased volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. I think this was the shot across the bow. I increased my OEX put order after the bell and it did not get filled. We were down from the start. This is not the trade that I have been waiting for but that will be coming up here soon. Probably next week. This was a short term deal and probably should have been over with today. The real deal will be coming soon. The negative breadth today should get the summation index ready to roll over soon. My thinking at the moment is looking good but the market will do what it pleases. Gold was off a couple of bucks and the XAU sold off a point and a half. The volume picked up on the downside there. It could mean that the break above 150 was a trap and that the issues will head lower from here. We'll see. Mentally, I'm trying to stay patient for the October shorting of the OEX. My thinking is that we will go and retest the highs from here. That will be the time to purchase puts. However this might be the end of the uptrend today. If that's the case I will have to reassess my scenario. I'm feeling fairly confident that my prognosis will prove correct. Not any decent economic data out for the rest of the week. Todays Fed beige book was for the most part a non-event. We will have to see how the rest of the week closes out.
Tuesday, September 05, 2006
The Dow rose 5 points on light volume today. Advance/declines were positive. We are overbought. The overall market was higher. I have an order in for some September OEX puts. This will be a quick trade if it gets filled. Perhaps only 2 days if it works. I am still looking for higher prices into the expiration next week and then purchasing October puts. But right now I am getting a sell signal and I'm going to try and exploit it. Gold was up over $15 today. The XAU gapped above the 150 level. The volume wasn't heavy but all the gold shares went to the upside. I thought about getting some NEM calls but held off. I am on the sidelines there. As for the OEX trade, it isn't a lot of money. I am really interested in October puts. But this looks like it could work if I'm nimble enough. I think I am. Mentally, I'm feeling good and got a good nights rest. I also feel good that the summer is now over and we can get back into the routine of the markets trading on a normal basis. Obviously nobody is jumping in to buy the market at these levels. We'll see. The volume has been light the whole way up here and that is not a strong sign. The Fed beige book is out tomorrow and I think that will be a market mover. Not much economic data this week. We'll see if my order gets filled tomorrow...