Friday, August 31, 2012
Big Ben spoke and the markets reacted as the Dow rose 90 points on better volume but still light. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. It wasn't exactly a broad based rally in my opinion but we'll take it. The question is what happens when the Fed meets next month? If they don't do anything, how will the markets react? If they do something, then what is left to do? Plenty of questions as usual in this game. The technicals still remain oversold on the stock indices so there is plenty of room to move higher in my opinion. But anything can happen. We still need to get through 1420 with good volume on the S&P 500 to start the next leg up. That's a guess as usual. GE was up a touch and the volume was light. I actually had a brief thought of getting some September calls here today but did not. I'll reconsider this idea over the weekend. Gold had a good day after Bernankes speech as the US dollar fell. The precious metal futures rose $30 and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 7 points. ABX up 1 3/8, GG rose 1 5/8 and NEM led the way higher by 2 1/8. Volume was good for a holiday Friday to confirm the move up. We are right back to the 170 level on the XAU that has contained the gold shares up until now. It looks like we could break through next week if the momentum higher continues. ABX closed above the $38 level for the week. We'll see if it can build on that with some volume. My October ABX calls gained some ground today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. All the players should be back next week so I'd expect things to start to pick up for the markets. I'm still a believer in higher prices going forward for the stock indexes. However the market as usual will go where it wants. I might add a trade in GE next week for September. I'll try and figure that out this weekend. Gold has broken out to the upside in my opinion but the next question is how far will it go? I'll have to check the resistance levels over the weekend. You don't want to leave a lot of profit on the table but you don't want to get greedy either. It's never easy in the game. Plenty to ponder and an extra day this weekend to think on things. For now it's a Friday afternoon in the late summer. Time for a rest.
Thursday, August 30, 2012
A bit of movement finally before the Bernanke blabbering tomorrow as the Dow fell 106 points on the usual light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. No apparent reason for todays decline but I still think we are digesting the gains before tackling the 1420 level on the S&P 500 again. But I could be wrong and often am. Getting oversold on the stock index technicals. We'll get past Labor Day and see what happens after that. GE fell 1/8 and the volume was extremely light again. Nothing new to report there. The gold futures were down another $5 as the US dollar showed a slight gain. The XAU fell 1 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM all moved very little on light volume. My ABX October calls remain in the black but aren't doing much. I suppose the gold shares will move tomorrow on what they hear or don't hear from Bernanke. Waiting on the end of the Labor Day weekend here as well. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. I still think that the stock indices will hold up here but anything can happen I guess. I also believe the gold shares are simply digesting their recent gains before they move higher above resistance. That would be through the 170 level on the XAU and the $38 level on ABX. We'll see.
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Nothing new to report today as the song remains the same. The Dow gained 4 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. Economic data came and went. We still fell in the final hour and that remains a near term problem for the bullish cause. Still in a holding pattern until next week in my opinion. GE was flat and the volume was extremely light. The final week of summer has really taken hold. The market players on on hiatus. Gold fell today, off $6 on the futures and more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was higher today. The XAU dropped 1 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. Just a waiting game here as well. I'm still a believer that we are consolidating the recent gains for the moment and then will break through the resistance. But that's a guess as usual. Still overbought on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indexes are headed nowhere for now. There is no apparent catalyst for stocks this week. Perhaps Bernanke on Friday can get things going. However the volume will be light regardless. Simply hold on until Labor Day and then we'll get things moving one way or the other. I'm still holding the October ABX calls and they're still in the black for now. If and when we get through the $38 level with good volume on ABX, these calls should show some decent gains. Hasn't happened yet. 2 days left before a long holiday weekend. Patience is needed and advised.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Just marking time here as we meander through the last week of the summer. Doldrums to the max as the Dow fell 21 points on very light volume again. The advance/declines were positive. We dropped in the final hour again and that isn't bullish. Seems like we're just waiting for Bernanke on Friday and when that's done we'll wait for the employment report the following Friday. The players are still on vacation. We'll have to be patient here. GE was flat and the volume extremely light. Nothing new to report here. Gold fell a bit over $5 today on the futures despite a weaker US dollar. That isn't bullish for the gold cause. The XAU was off a touch. Trying to get through the 170 level on the XAU to signal the next leg up. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other and of course the volume is very light. My October ABX calls are still in the black. We still need to get through the $38 level on good volume here to break through the resistance. The gold shares remain overbought. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The economic data today was a non-event. The environment remains one of no volume and lack of conviction. I believe that will change in a week. Until then it is simply a wait and see game. I think gold is simply taking a rest here before we move higher but that is a guess as usual. We'll try and remain patient for now. More economic data out tomorrow and we'll keep an eye on Europe as well.
Monday, August 27, 2012
A mixed, mundane Monday as the Dow fell 33 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The Dow led the way down as other stock indices were not as negative. We did continuously lose ground in the final hour and that is not a positive. In a holding pattern here as far as I'm concerned as we wait for everyone to return next week. Plenty of economic data out this week but we'll have to see if it means anything to the market. GE was up a touch on the same very light volume. Nothing new to report here. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures but fell in the aftermarket. The US dollar was flat today. The XAU dropped 2 1/8. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. My ABX October calls are still in the black but losing ground on a daily basis. The volume is light here and that is what you'd like to see on a decline. However we haven't been able to break through the $38 level of resistance, which is also at the weekly downtrend line from February. Plenty of time left on these options but selling them last week and then buying them back looks like the proper strategy that I did not follow. The gold shares remain overbought. We'll see what happens going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indexes are in a wait and see mode here as the 1420 level on the S&P 500 remains key in my opinion. If we can get through there with some volume it would be bullish. Gold is due to take a rest. As long as it doesn't turn into a protracted decline I think the bullish cause will remain positive. That's a guess as usual. Nothing out of Europe lately and we've still got Bernanke on Friday to deal with.
Friday, August 24, 2012
Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 100 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. You had to figure some kind of bounce would arrive. We are still in a summer drift, grind our way higher mode. The volume has been very light and I don't think you can really trust things one way or the other here. I'll repeat that I don't think this is the start of a big decline. We really have to wait until after Labor Day to figure out where we are going in my opinion. But I could be wrong and often am. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. We are right at the daily uptrend line. If you like the calls here, today was probably the day to take a chance and pick them up. No trades for me here at the moment. Gold was flat on the futures today which wasn't bad considering we had a bit of strength in the US dollar. The XAU was flat as well. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. My ABX October calls are still in the black but lost some ground today. The gold shares are overbought here and I'm not sure how much longer I'll hold onto these calls. I'm still thinking that I can sell them and then buy them back cheaper later on. But that's a guess. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indices turned around today and we'll have to see if they can keep it up next week. A fair amount of economic data will be out. We've also got Bernanke flapping his gums on Friday. However it's still considered the summer and trading should remain thin. Gold had a nice week but we're overbought here and maybe need to take a rest. We could simply go straight up but I doubt it. I'll have to go over the charts this weekend and decide from there. The trading is never easy. We'll see what happens next week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Continuing lower as the Dow fell 115 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now pointing lower. I still don't think this is the start of something big to the downside. However the technicals have rolled over for the stock indexes. It is still summertime vacation mode though. We'll be short term oversold in a day or so. We should drift back up after that. That's my guess at the moment. GE was off 1/8 on light volume and we have come back to the uptrend line that began in June. This could be the place to get some GE calls. I don't think I'm going to attempt a trade here though because I'm already involved with the ABX trade. Gold continued to rally today as the futures were up over $30, adding to yesterdays aftermarket gains. The US dollar was just a bit lower today. The XAU only rose 1/3 and that is troubling going forward for the bulls. ABX had a fractional gain, while GG and NEM each lost 1/4. Volume was good here and there is interest once again in the gold shares. My October ABX calls are still in the black. We are just about at the resistance for ABX on the daily and weekly charts. The volume has been good lately. I think that we will break through to the upside but when is the question. Very overbought here short term but I'm now thinking about simply holding the calls because there is a lot of time left on them and I think ABX will breakout to the upside. I could be wrong. Gold itself has broken out to the upside and the trend has changed from sideways to up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Who knows? Maybe I'm wrong about the stock indices here and we are in the beginning of a decent decline. The weekly charts of the indexes look like they may be putting in tops. I'm still sticking with the bullish scenario for now. Gold has had a nice breakout and the volume is confirming it. Any pullbacks can be bought in my opinion. Overbought short term for now though. Haven't heard anything out of Europe for a while but that could change at any moment. End of the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
A mixed market today as the Dow fell 30 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Simply working off the overbought condition before moving higher is my guess at the moment. The market was lower but made a comeback after the Fed minutes release that implied more easy money coming soon. Not sure if that will happen or not. Whatever the case it's still a light volume summer market mood. We need to get through 1420 on the S&P 500 to start another leg up. GE still a bit lower today and still light volume. Nothing new to report there. Gold rallied after the Fed minutes and the futures actually closed a couple of bucks lower but rose $15 in the aftermarket. The US dollar fell again on the prospect of another easing. The XAU was up 3 2/3. ABX up 3/4, GG and NEM rose a buck. Volume was OK again. My ABX October calls are now solidly in the black. The gold shares are very overbought here and I am still considering dumping the ABX calls before the end of the week. However the longer term gold share charts still look very constructive for more gains. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm guessing the remaining 2 days of the week will be a slow drift to nowhere. Things should get somewhat back to normal after Labor Day. The stock indexes remain overbought even with a couple of days decline but that doesn't mean that they can't move higher. Gold has broken out to the upside as the US dollar has fell in the past couple of days. Not sure how long that will last as the dollar has trend line support at the 81 level. Volume has been good for gold here though and that is bullish going forward. One thing for sure about trading, it's never easy. ABX has resistance at $38 and we are just about there. If we get through $38 there will be more gains to come. We'll keep an eye on the markets overnight and take it from there.
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Movement to the downside today as the Dow fell 68 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weak but not as much as the Dow. I do not think this is the beginning of some long, protracted decline. The stock indices are overbought and need to take a rest. I don't see any huge rally in the offing either. Of course I could be wrong on both counts. It wouldn't be the first time. I still think that nothing of great consequence will happen until all the traders return to the game after Labor Day. GE was off a bit again on light volume. Still in a sideways holding pattern with regards to GE. We still need to see a break through $21 on good volume to resume the uptrend there. Gold had a good day on a weaker US dollar. The precious metal futures rose almost $20. The XAU gained 4 1/3 but was higher. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on better volume. These issues were higher as well but fell back during the day. My ABX October calls are now in the black. I am seriously considering selling them this week but the weekly charts on the gold shares still have plenty of room to run. However I think that selling them soon and trying to buy them back cheaper may be the best move for now. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A pullback in the stock indexes today and we've been waiting a while for that to happen. My technical work suggests that it won't last long or be too deep. It's still a slow summer trading environment. Gold broke above the resistance at $1625 and we will have to see how far it runs. The favorable seasonality factor of August and September is on golds side. However volume has been light. We'll have to see if there is any follow through tomorrow.
Monday, August 20, 2012
We sold off early and spent the rest of the day coming back as the Dow fell 3 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summer doldrums remain in place with no end in sight. Not a lot of economic data out this week as well. So we will see if the drift higher continues as we are at the resistance of 1420 for the S&P 500. Otherwise it's just another Monday in the summer. GE lost a touch on light volume. Nothing new here as well, trying to see if a breakout above $21 occurs. Gold was up 3 bucks or so on the futures as the US dollar dropped a tad. Not much going on here either. The XAU was up a point. ABX and NEM had fractional gains, while GG lost a fraction. Volume was light. My October ABX are slightly in the black. I'm still considering dumping them this week but I would like to see ABX get to $38 first. May or may not happen. Overbought on the gold shares to be sure as well as the stock indices. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much else to add today. It is a summer snooze fest for the most part. Nothing coming out of Europe and most of the players remain on vacation. There is nothing wrong with remaining on the sidelines until Labor Day. We'll see what transpires tomorrow but it will probably be more of the same.
Friday, August 17, 2012
The beat goes on as the Dow rose another 25 points on light volume today. The advance/declines were positive. Extremely overbought now but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher. What it does mean is that we are probably getting close to a point where the stock indexes will want to take a rest. The summation index continues to the upside though. I still feel that the best course of action would be inaction for now. There's also an extra week on the September option cycle so the option premiums will be pricey. Patience is recommended. GE was off a bit on light volume. We've been basically moving sideways here for a month. The technicals for GE remain overbought. Perhaps the calls will be in order when we get oversold. Gold was little changed on the day as the US dollar was higher. The XAU fell 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The technicals here are overbought and look like they are about to roll over. My ABX October calls are at break even. I am going to have to seriously consider getting rid of them next week in hopes of buying them back cheaper later on. The weekly charts still look good here but the dailies are overbought. It's something to ponder over the weekend. Mentally I'm a bit tired. It's been a nice summer rally for the stock indices. However nothing lasts forever and the volume hasn't been anything to write home about. I am also hearing analysts on TV that are all bullish and they are rarely correct. The CBOE call/put ratio is also the highest that it's been in quite some time. So I would not be thinking that we are just going to continue moving higher. But I could be wrong and often am. I still like the gold shares going forward but they may need to take a rest as well. Speaking of taking a rest, it's Friday on a hot summer afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, August 16, 2012
Some movement to the upside today as the Dow gained 85 points on light volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Very overbought both short and medium term for the stock indices. That doesn't mean that we can't go higher but some pullback should occur soon. No reason for todays move but we can use expiration week and a falling US dollar as excuses. The summer rally continues but the volume has been light and we never trust light volume rallies. GE was up a bit again on light volume. Stalling at the 21 dollar level here. If we get through 21 we should move higher since it is the resistance on the weekly chart. Hasn't happened yet. Gold was higher by $12 on the futures with a weaker US dollar. The XAU rose 5 points. The continuing relative strength of the gold shares vs. gold itself remains a positive going forward. ABX gained 1 1/3, GG up by 1 3/4 and NEM rose a buck. Volume continues to be underwhelming here. My October ABX calls have moved into the black. ABX is pretty overbought at the moment. I'm thinking of dumping the calls and trying to buy them back but I'll continue to hold them for now. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better. We're almost to the resistance of 1420 on the S&P 500. The market has the feel as though we are going to break through that level. Might need to back and fill first. There hasn't been any negative headlines out of Europe for a while but that could happen at any time. We'll get through expiration tomorrow and go from there. The gold shares are acting better but gold itself is still in a sideways channel. If we can get gold to break out of the channel to the upside then the gold shares will continue higher in my opinion. That is probably just stating the obvious. We'll see about the option expiration and go from there.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
More of the same drift today as the Dow fell 7 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. There is nothing new to report really. It is a summer doldrums environment. The stock index technicals are overbought and staying there. Expiration week, no volatility and a lack of participants. The recent McClellan oscillator signal for a decent move did not pan out. So on we go and there are no changes for the foreseeable future. GE was little changed, the volume was light and this sounds like a broken record. Gold was up $4 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well. The XAU was up 2/3. ABX and NEM had fractional upsides moves, while GG dropped a tad. Volume was light. My ABX October calls remain in the red. Nothing new to report here as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There is no need to press any issue right now. When the stock indices are quiet and simply drift there is no need to force things. The trading arena will pick up down the road. This is the reality of the market that we find ourselves in today. Patience is necessary and mandatory. We'll see what tomorrow brings but the odds are it will be more of the same.
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Another day another case of the doldrums. We are really in a low volume malaise here as the Dow gained just 2 points. The advance/declines were negative. Not even a decent retail sales report could get things going today. So this is the trading environment that we are faced with. It could continue for the rest of August. As I have said before, the sidelines are not a bad place to be for now. Volatility tried to spike today but it wasn't much. 3 days left in the August option cycle. GE was off a touch and the volume was light. Nothing new to report here. Gold fell again, down another $10 on the futures. The US dollar was up just a tad. The XAU fell a point. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. I still like the way the gold shares have held up here despite the recent sell-off in gold. That should be bullish going forward. Mentally I'm doing OK. No need to force the issue here with regards to trading. There aren't that many players out there. Sometimes it is better to simply remain patient. I believe that we are in one of those times now. However the work still needs to be done on a daily basis and I will continue doing that of course. The trading should get back to normal after Labor Day.
Monday, August 13, 2012
Kind of a mixed bag today as the Dow fell 38 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. We sold off hard early and came back for most of the day. It is expiration week so the positive bias should assert itself at some point. Plenty of economic data out this week as well. Volume has been pretty tepid in August so I would not get too wrapped up in whatever transpires this week. GE was off 1/8 on the same pretty light volume. We're getting no forward signals from this issue lately. Chalk it up to the summer doldrums I guess. Gold fell $10 on the futures today despite weakness in the US dollar. The XAU dropped 2 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. My October ABX calls are still in the red. The gold shares are short term overbought here so some type of pullback or weakness is to be expected. Gold itself needs a breakout above $1625 to get things going to the upside. Mentally I'm feeling better but not 100% yet. It feels like we are simply marking time here with the stock indexes. Very light volume with a slight upwards bias is the story for now. Gold remains in the same trading range since early May. There is nothing to do but wait for a breakout one way or the other. It is not a bad time to be on the sidelines. Haven't had a headline out of Europe in a while. We'll see how long that can continue.
Friday, August 10, 2012
We opened lower and closed higher but it was an extremely light volume levitation as the Dow gained 42 points. The advance/declines were slightly positive. It was a Friday session in the summer. I don't think you can really read much into it. The McClellan oscillator is telegraphing a decent move in the next day or two. Not sure which way it will be. Short term overbought and staying there. Expiration week coming up. GE moved very little and the volume was very little. No trades in mind there at the moment. Gold gained a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar dropped just a touch. The XAU was up 7/8. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The weekly candlestick charts show some promise for these issues but the volume is lacking. I continue to hold on to my October ABX calls and they continue to wallow in the red. Mentally I'm still ill and hope to rest over the weekend and be back at full strength. It was a summer doldrums week and I expect more of the same going forward. The September option premiums will be high because there is an extra week on them. I doubt that I will have any new trades before Labor day. Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, August 09, 2012
A mixed bag today as the Dow was lower by 10 points while the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were higher. The advance/declines were positive and the volume anemic. It is a summer doldrums week. Perhaps more of the same coming for the rest of August. If you want to take a break, now is the time. We may see some movement in expiration week but that's a guess as usual. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the OEX. GE gained a nickel and we're still overbought here. No trades for me here either. Gold was up $4 on the futures despite a rise in the US dollar. That's encouraging for the gold bulls. The XAU gained 1 7/8. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on extremely light volume. Overbought on the short term technically for the gold shares. My ABX calls remain in the red. Mentally I'm still feeling ill and am exhausted. I need to get some rest. Tomorrow should be a slow wrap up of a slightly positive week for the stock indices.
Wednesday, August 08, 2012
Summer days lead to summer daze as we drift around aimlessly. The Dow managed 7 points to the upside today on very light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. It seems as though we are losing steam here but I could be wrong. Not much to report and the rest of the week should be the same. GE lost 1/8 on light volume. The technicals remain overbought here. Gold was up 3 bucks on the futures as the US dollar was practically flat on the day. Slow here as well. The XAU was off 2/3 and opened higher but closed lower. That's a one day reversal to the downside. ABX and GG were lower by 1/4, while NEM was up 1/4. Volume was light. My October ABX calls almost made it back to break even today but then faded. They are still in the red. I did notice yesterday that the volume for the October ABX 34 calls was extremely heavy. This came out of nowhere. Today the open interest in this option expanded dramatically. Somebody is making a huge bet here. Mentally I'm still not feeling well with the flu or something. Luckily for me the market is slow at the moment. Nothing else to report today.
Tuesday, August 07, 2012
More drift higher as the Dow gained 51 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. Overbought and staying there, which is a condition that could persist. The trend remains sluggishly up. Probably too late for some August OEX calls but we'll see. As I said yesterday probably the most prudent course of action is waiting things out. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Same technical condition as the overall market for GE. Overbought and staying there. Gold lost a touch today as the US dollar was a bit lower as well. The XAU rose 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains of at least 1/2 on light volume. The gold shares continue to outperform at the moment. My October ABX calls are still in the red. Mentally I'm still not feeling 100%. Slow summer trading is what we are seeing for now. I expect that to continue for the rest of the week. The summation index is trending higher. The weekly charts for the gold shares look positive but they have looked good before too. Gold itself has been moving sideways for 4 months. We are in golds historic best months of August and September. I don't expect much out of this week but we'll keep an eye out going forward.
Monday, August 06, 2012
A slow start to the week for the most part as the Dow gained 21 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were positive. We were up about 90 points but sold off in the last half hour. The technicals are overbought on the stock indexes and a pullback is in order. Not a lot of economic data out this week and I expect this week to be a summer doldrums affair. I could be wrong. GE was flat on the day after hitting a new high for the year. Volume was light. No trades for me here. Gold was up $6 on the futures as the US dollar was a touch weaker. The XAU gained 3 3/4. This is the second time in the past week that the gold shares have out performed the metal itself. That is bullish for the gold shares going forward if it keeps up. ABX and GG had fractional gains while NEM was up 1 1/2. Volume was light. My October ABX calls are still in the red. Mentally I'm a bit tired, not feeling 100%. I expect a drift lower here for the stock indices and then perhaps some strength towards the end of the week. 9 days to go for the August option cycle. Many players are on vacation. I don't anticipate any trades for me in the August option cycle. That would most likely be the prudent course of action. There's always the possibility of a headline from Europe though.
Friday, August 03, 2012
Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 217 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive. The employment numbers were better than expected and today what Europe said yesterday was viewed as positive. What? Yesterday Europe was viewed as negative. This is the kind of game we play. That is why we stick to the technicals and they have rolled back up for the stock indexes. It is a dicey affair at the moment. We're basically moving in channel with a slight upward bias. The volume today was light and we never trust light volume rallies. But it is a Friday in the summer. So the questions continue and the trading is never easy anyway. Not a lot of data out next week so it could be slow. However we are still at the ongoing risk of a headline. GE was up 3/8 and the volume was light. I've decided not to attempt a trade here for now. 2 weeks to go before option expiration. Gold rallied a bit as the US dollar got crushed, which didn't make any sense considering the jobs number was better than expected. The gold futures rose $18. The XAU was up 2 1/2 but was higher before the last 15 minutes of the session when the gold shares abruptly sold off. ABX and GG rose around 1/2, while NEM was up a buck. Volume was nothing special. My ABX calls remain in the red. I still plan on holding them for a while. Gold has been in a sideways channel as well since the middle of April. Still waiting for a breakout one way or the other. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Looks like we should continue to drift higher here. I may try the August OEX calls on weakness next week but I may be too late. With all the data out this week when it was all said and done the Dow gained 20 points. That is a lot of trouble for nothing. Perhaps on the sidelines is the place to be until all the players return after Labor Day. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. It's a Friday afternoon in the summer. Time to take a break.
Thursday, August 02, 2012
The ECB followed the Fed with not much to say and the Dow moved lower. The major average fell 92 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. We were down twice as much during the session. I have expected higher equity prices and we have done nothing but move lower. However the decline has not been as bad as it could be. Considering the lack of Central Bank follow through to their previous statements, we should be down much further. But that is simply my opinion. The daily technicals have rolled over for the stock indexes and the summation index is now trending lower. That could all change on tomorrows employment report or the averages will confirm the downside by moving lower. Or the number could be a non-event since it will be a Friday in the summer. We'll soon know the answer. GE was off 1/4 on average volume. GE had a pretty wide range for the day, I'm guessing due to the uncertainty going forward with the employment report. No trades there for now. Gold dropped again, off $16 on the futures. The US dollar rose again today. The XAU held up OK, considering the dollar and the overall slump in the indices. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses but NEM led the way down and that isn't bullish. My October ABX calls are still in the red. The gold shares have held up better than lately in the recent gold decline. We'll see what that means going forward. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. All eyes will be on the employment numbers tomorrow. I have no idea what they will be. We will have to see how the market reacts and take it from there. Even with the recent decline I'm still in the bullish camp for now. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Wednesday, August 01, 2012
The Fed has come and is gone once again. Nothing new was said and that wasn't unexpected. The markets sold off, came back and sold off once again. The Dow fell 32 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. Now that's out of the way and we'll see what comes from the ECB. Still more overbought than oversold on the stock index technicals. The summation index is trending sideways. I'm still a believer that we are in an uptrend but it's a slow moving affair. GE was flat on the day and the volume was light. No trades there for me at the moment. If anything, I may try the August calls. Gold fell today as the US dollar moved higher. The precious metal futures were off $7 and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 1 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses and the volume was good. The gold shares sold off hard early in the session and then made a comeback. Not exactly sure of what to make of things here but at least it wasn't a total sell off. My ABX October calls are still in the red. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The small stocks had a worse day than the big caps and that usually isn't a positive going forward. The transports had a rough day as well and they often times lead the way. Perhaps we are simply in a waiting game until the employment report on Friday. Gold sold off today but it wasn't as bad as it could have been. The gold share technicals are breaking down from overbought. August and September are historically the best months for the price of gold. We'll see. All eyes and ears will be on the ECB tomorrow. It should be some type of market mover.