Most stock indexes got whacked today but the Dow managed to end up with a small gain of 11 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still in an upwards sloping channel. We got a signal last night for a big move from the McClellan oscillator and we saw that today. The NASDAQ fell over 2 1/2% and the S&P 500 lost 1 1/4%. A last minute bounce kept things from being worse. So much for my thought on new all time highs showing up soon. The short term indicators for the S&P are now heading down. Barring a turnaround tomorrow it appears that stocks are going lower from here. The NASDAQ is short term oversold, staying that way and is never a good thing. The question is who would be buying stocks ahead of the weekend and the Fed next week? Gold got clobbered as well with the futures losing $107. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped dramatically in a flight to safety. No flight to safety for gold though. The XAU fell 19 1/2 and GDX lost 5 points. Volume was good to the downside. The short term indicators for GDX are heading down now with some already oversold. GDX has been traveling in a downward channel since the beginning of September. It remains in that channel but we are now down to the lower rail. A break of that will lead to more selling for the gold shares. The technical damage on the weekly chart after todays price action is hard to ignore. Unless there is a miracle turnaround for the gold shares tomorrow, the GDX November call idea will probably be a bad idea. My open order for the GDX November calls did get filled today. I had placed the order price in case of a drop for GDX so the entry price was not as bad as it could have been. That said I probably could have done a little better getting in. The trade is showing a small loss. Plenty of time for this trade to work but the techncial damage to the GDX chart cannot be taken lightly. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did close below the 20 level. The short term indicators here have turned back up. Volatility has made a comeback and the VIX hasn't even closed above 20 yet. It could be that things are just starting to get interesting. I'm in the next trade now and it hasn't started out as you'd normally like things to go. Once again the management of the trade will determine how things turn out. Let's hope that I do a better job than the last time. Asia and Europe closed lower as it looks like a worldwide exit for stocks. I'll keep an eye on any overnight developments and we'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Moving higher across the board today as the Dow gained 360 points on good volume. The advance/declines were even. The summation index continues to move up in a channel. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and its short term indicators continue to move higher. Could we be on our way to new all time highs for the S&P 500? It's possible. Gold rose $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished unchanged and interest rates were barely higher. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains very light here. The short term indicators for GDX are beginning to track sideways. The near term down trend line here is now at 89. NEM reports earnings after the bell tomorrow. That could get GDX moving in either direction on Friday. My order for the GDX November calls remains unfilled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators are moving down with room to go. The VIX seems to be giving the market a green light to move higher. As long as it continues on this path stocks should move up. However much of the week so far feels like it's in a holding pattern. Europe was higher and Asia lower with the exception of Japan. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Some early volatility but then it was sideways for the rest of the day. The Dow outperformed once again as it gained 529 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is traveling in a slightly upwards channel. The S&P 500 had a modest gain and the NASDAQ a very slight loss. The Dow in the lead is not the most bullish scenario. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P continue to trend higher. I'm not sure what's next here so no SPY option trades for now. Gold was off $19 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were flat to lower. The XAU slipped 1 1/2, while GDX shed around 1/3. Volume is still pretty light here which shows no interest one way or another for the gold shares. Some of the short term indicators on GDX are pointing lower. My open order for the GDX November calls remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an overall upside day for stocks. The short term indicators here are moving down with room to go. The VIX seems to imply that the market will be moving higher in the near term. The spike higher on Friday looks like a one day wonder at this point. Waiting on the next market catalyst to appear. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Bouncing back for the overall market but the Dow fell 36 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative. The summation index remains in a channel. The NASDAQ was up over 1% and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 gained over thirty points. Some of the short term indicators there have begun to turn back up. However it did close well off of the highs for the session. Gold dipped $19 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher as were interest rates. The XAU was off 3 1/2 and GDX fell around 1 1/4. Volume was very light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are starting to turn lower. I still like the idea for the GDX November calls and my open order remains out there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and its short term indicators have turned down. This is the indicator that I think bears close watching in the near term to determine what is going on here. After jumping above the twenty level on Friday it has now come back down. If it can stay below 20 the market should be OK. However if it rises above 20 again we will be in for more volatility. So it is something to keep an eye on. Plenty of earnings due out this week which could get things going in either direction. Asia was mixed and Europe lower to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on this evenings developments.

Back to selling on expiration Friday as the Dow fell 175 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is traveling in a slight upwards sloping channel. Once again the overall market was much weaker than the Dow. The NASDAQ fell over 2% and the S&P 500 over 1%. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back lower with some steam. The daily candlestick chart has turned around with a bearish engulfing pattern. The short term up trend line here has now been violated. I'm not sure what is going on here but I'm back to advising some caution until we can figure things out for stocks. Gold was up $19 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished just a touch lower. The XAU was up 2 1/2, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was on the light side. The short term indicators for GDX are still trending higher. The gold shares did not follow the overall market lower. That is further evidence that the GDX November calls is probably the place to be. My open order for them remains out there but probably has to be adjusted in order to get filled. I'll be hoping for some sort of pullback in the gold shares early next week but hope is not a trading strategy. The down trend line in place for GDX now comes in at 90. The weekly indicators are stalling at the mid-range level and the irregular inverse head and shoulders pattern remains in place on the weekly chart. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and closed at the 20 level after being above it during the session. Its short term indicators are moving up and are almost overbought. The VIX will have to be watched carefully here because if it starts getting above the 20 level the volatility will be greater along with the losses for stocks. Or perhaps todays sell off was option expiration related, in which case things could turn back up for the S&P going forward. Plenty of charts to go over this weekend as we try and plan what to do next. Not a lot of economic data due out next week. There's an extra week in the November option cycle so the premiums are pricey. Asia and Europe were higher to close the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The Dow took off to the upside today as it gained 558 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is in a sideways channel. The inflation data came in higher than expected but after an early sell off buyers stepped in. The NASDAQ was pretty negative for much of the day but came all the way back for a slight gain. The S&P 500 posted a small gain. On a day where the economic numbers suggested a sell off, it didn't happen. This is what I mean when I say the market goes where it wants. You would expect interest rates and the US dollar to rise on the data but they did not. These were a couple of the products that I mentioned last week that their indicators got stretched too far in one direction and were bound to reverse at some point soon. We've reached that point. Things will probably support another rise for stocks going forward. The short term indicators for the S&P have now stalled after dropping yesterday. The daily candlestick chart here looks bullish and the S&P held its near term up trend line. Gold took off higher as well and the futures gained $89. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU climbed 13 points and GDX added 3 2/3. Volume was above average and GDX closed at its high for the session. My open order for the GDX November calls didn't get filled but I'm leaving it out there. Looks like we may have missed this trade again but we'll see what happens going forward. But some of the short term indicators for GDX have jumped higher so it looks like it could be the beginning of something sustained to the upside. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and some of its short term indicators have turned back down. The 200 day moving average here contained the recent rise. The daily candlestick chart looks like it wants to go lower. Expiration Friday on tap and anything goes at this point. The Fed chairman will be speaking at an IMF summit tomorrow so that may provide a reason for markets to move. Asia was lower with the exception of India and Europe continues to trend upwards. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Lower from the start today but the Dow only lost 48 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving sideways. The inflation data came in a bit hotter than expected and most averages had a gap lower on the open. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 got clobbered. The NASDAQ was down over 500 points and the S&P lost over 1%. Stocks made a slight comeback in the final hour. The short term indicators on the S&P have turned down with room to go. More economic data due tomorrow including producer prices on inflation. I would expect some follow through selling but you never know. Gold took a hit as well with the futures off $53. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were flat to a bit lower. The XAU lost 16 1/2, while GDX shed around 3 3/4. Volume was good to the downside. The gold shares did come up off of their lows. The short term indicators for GDX are heading down and are getting to completely oversold. I adjusted my order for the GDX November calls to a closer in the money strike price. Still not filled yet and may have to adjust it again tomorrow. I'm feeling pretty sure that getting the calls here is the right idea despite my recent loss attempting this. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today as you would expect. The short term indicators here have shot higher and some are almost already overbought. Perhaps the VIX is implying that the decline will not last too long. Time will tell. Asia lower and Europe slightly higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Hanging around today but the Dow fell 180 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trying to turn higher. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two trading sessions. We'll see if that happens tomorrow. Probably will with whatever reaction we get to the inflation numbers. The NASDAQ posted a small loss today and the S&P 500 finished basically unchanged. The short term indicators for the S&P remain overbought. The concensus for the inflation data tomorrow is already pretty high so anything below that will most likely be viewed as a positive. But we have no idea where those numbers will be. No SPY option trades here with only three days left in the October cycle. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures today. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU fell 6 1/4 and GDX dropped 1 1/4. Volume was light. Some of the short term indicators on GDX have turned back lower. I did place an open order for the GDX November calls in case we see a sell off tomorrow. Not back to short term oversold on the daily chart here yet but the order won't get filled unless we see additional selling. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed on the session. Some of its short term indicators have turned lower. Still not sure what to expect next on the VIX. Although I will say that tomorrow could be an interesting day in the marketplace. Asia was a bit higher with the exception of Japan and Europe was barely lower. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Mixed to start options expiration week on a partial Monday holiday as the Dow gained 195 on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is trying to turn higher. The NASDAQ dropped the most today and the S&P 500 posted a small loss. The short term indicators for the S&P remain overbought. Earnings season gets started this week and the consensus is predicting good numbers. CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday could take center stage. The S&P is already overbought so I'd advise some caution here ahead of those reports. No SPY option trades for now. Gold dipped $23 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and the bond market was closed. The XAU was off 2 3/8, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was very light. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are beginning to stall. I still like the idea for the GDX November calls but would prefer to see GDX get back to short term oversold. May not happen. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and some of its short term indicators are turning back up. Hard for me to say where it goes from here. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll see how it goes tomorrow when all the players are back in the game.

Buyers took control today as the Dow climbed 423 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. It eventually will as it is blown out to the downside and probably sooner rather than later. The Dow led things higher today which isn't the most bullish scenario. The S&P 500 had a decent gain. Its short term indicators are still overbought. It looks poised to go higher but the volume to upside today was lacking. Moving into options expiration week so perhaps the usual positive bias will be in effect. Gold rallied $63 on the futures today. Both the US dollar and interest rates nudged higher. The XAU gained 9 points and GDX was up 2 1/2. Volume was light. Gold and the gold shares higher with no apparent news to drive them and we'll take notice. The short term indicators for GDX are now moving higher with plenty of room to go. The short term down trend line on GDX comes in at 92. If it gets through there the rally will be on. I believe that it has already started but am hoping for some kind of move lower in the next couple of days to fill todays gap on the daily chart. Markets rarely cooperate. Perhaps the inflation data next week will give us the opportunity to purchase the GDX November calls. The weekly GDX candlestick chart has a potential loosely formed inverse head and shoulders pattern appearing in the past seven months. If that comes to fruition the gains for the gold shares would be very good. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX was lower today and that coincides with an upside market. The short term indicators here are pointing south. It looks like the VIX wants to go lower. A back and forth week for stocks but it really looks like things are about to get going to the upside. The medium term indicators have been oversold for too long. Perhaps earnings season will have the buyers out in force again. Inflation data out next week should move the markets. I probably will not try the SPY options as I don't see a solid signal there at the moment. I am looking to try the gold share calls again. I'll check the charts over the next two days to make sure that I have some type of game plan for next week. It already looks like the inflation numbers are supposed to be high. That means if they go up but not as much as expected, traders will view that as a positive. Just a guess there on my part. We'll stick with the technicals. Asia and Europe finished up on the last day of the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A mixed bag today with the Dow up and the overall market lower. The most watched index rose 51 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to stabalize. The NASDAQ led the way lower, off 1 1/4%. The S&P 500 was down 36 points but did come back from the lows on the session. The short term indicators here have now turned down with plenty of room to go lower. The market is trying to figure out what it wants to do. No SPY options trades in mind right now. Gold found a bid with China returning to the market after a holiday as the futures rose $15. The US dollar and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU climbed 5 points, while GDX added 1 1/3. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up but remain oversold. I'm still considering the GDX November calls but will most likely wait for next weeks inflation data to get out of the way before purchase. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was higher today and that fits with an overall down market. The short term indicators here are trending higher but without conviction for now. I'm not exactly sure what the market wants to do here as we still have conflicting short and longer term signals. Never an easy game plus my take on things hasn't been solid lately. We keep moving on though. I'll probably let Friday go by and regroup over the weekend. Asia and Europe were down again in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Selling today as the Dow fell 341 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving down. It could have been worse but most indices finished well up from their morning lows after a gap lower on the open. The Dow led things down and that isn't the most bearish scenario. Most of the short term indicators for the S&P 500 remain overbought. I'm not sure what's coming next here for stocks. There was no follow through to the new all time high in the S&P. Other indicators that we look at are mixed. Some of the longer term ones are in areas that usually precede market strength. Some shorter term ones are showing signs of a near term top. I'm on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold got spanked as the futures dropped $58. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished little changed. The XAU fell 11 1/4, while GDX lost 2 3/4. Volume was about average. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back down in oversold territory. GDX has now broken below the area of consolidation that appeared to be forming a bottom to me. Needless to say my GDX October calls lost even more ground and I dumped them for an 85% loss. The stop loss order that I had in that didn't get filled earlier this week was set for a 50% loss. So I tacked on another 35% by being stubborn in this trade. My mistake was not just getting out when the stop loss wasn't filled. The 50% losses are part of the game. The only saving grace is that there wasn't much money put into this idea, as it failed the last time that I tried it as well. Will I try this trade again? Probably. Some of the medium term technical indicators that we watch have been stretched to extremes for the US dollar and US interest rates. Meaning that these two products cannot continue to rise forever. There has to be some kind of consolidation or move in the opposite direction to relieve the out of whack condition. A drop in the dollar and yields would normally be supportive for gold. When that occurs, combined with the oversold condition for GDX, it should lead to some kind of positive price action on the gold shares. Perhaps moving out to the GDX November calls will be the next attempt. Mentally I'm feeling a bit perplexed as the GDX losing trade does not help with the trading confidence factor. However it must be put in the rear view mirror because the market doesn't care. The VIX was just up slightly today. The short term indicators are now tracking sideways. The daily candlestick chart here still looks like it wants to go lower. Europe and Asia were down overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

More upside today as the Dow gained 253 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. We had a gap higher and then rallied for the first half of the day. Sideways to lower completed the session. The S&P 500 joined the NASDAQ with a new all time high. The short term indicators for the S&P are now overbought. They can stay that way during rallies but we don't really know if that's what we have here yet. Breadth remains a concern. Gold was up forty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was down and interest rates finished slightly lower. The XAU rose about 3 points and GDX added around 3/4. Volume was light. Considering the move higher in gold along with the drop in the dollar and interest rates the gold shares didn't do much. That is not a positive. My GDX October calls remain soild losers and I probably should have abandoned this idea today. GDX remains short term oversold although the indicators have turned up. The daily candlestick charts looks like it is putting in a bottom. But I'm running out of time with only 8 days to go and being far out of the money. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower which fits the upside today in stocks. The short term indicators here are trending lower with a little more room to go before hitting short term oversold. Asia and Europe were higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on this evenings developments.

We begin the week on a positive note as the Dow rose 91 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ climbed 1% and the S&P 500 had a solid day. The NASDAQ closed at a new all time high which is a plus for the bulls. Gains would have been even better but there was a last half hour sell off. The short term indicators for the S&P are moving up and getting to overbought territory. If the summation index turns back up the S&P 500 will be at new all time highs as well. Hasn't happened yet. Gold was $6 higher on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU was off a point and GDX dipped 1/3. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are stuck in oversold territory. My GDX October calls are mired in a losing position. A little less than two weeks to go here and probably need to get out of this trade sooner rather than later. The loss right now is more than I want it to be. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished slightly higher today which doesn't fit with an overall upside market. Some short term indicators for the VIX are still moving lower while others are beginning to track sideways. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to go lower. Light on economic data this week so we'll have to wait and see what can get things moving. Asia and Europe were higher to start the week with the exception of France. We'll see hwo it goes tomorrow.

Some upside for stocks today as the jobs report came in weaker than expected. The Dow rose 250 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to trend lower. We opened with a gap higher, then sold off for brief period and moved sideways for the rest of the day. The NASDAQ finished up over 1% and the S&P 500 had a decent gain as well. The short term indicators for the S&P have moved up from the mid-range level. Not sure if the bounce will continue as the market has had a mind of its own for quite a while. But as I have already noted, our medium term indicators have been oversold for too long. I continue to look for higher stock prices going forward. Gold ended the day down $27 after being higher early on. The US dollar was lower but interest rates were up. The XAU was up about 4 and GDX added a point. Volume was just shy of average. Gold lower and the gold shares higher is something we haven't seen for a while. It's a positive for the gold bulls. My stop loss order for the GDX October call trade should have been filled as it traded at the price I specified but wasn't hit. Not sure what's going on there. I canceled the order and will now hold it without a stop loss which we know implies more risk. The trade remains on the losing side of the ledger. The short term indicators for GDX are still stuck in oversold territory. I'll give this trade a couple of more days and see where we go from there. I am still considering going out to the GDX November calls for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today which fits with an up market. The short term indicators here are now trending lower. Not a lot of economic data out next week so the markets will have to find other reasons to move. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Asia lower and Europe higher to finish out the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Down in the morning and back up in the afternoon but at the end of the day not much progress made in either direction. The Dow finished up 20 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted small gains as well. Volume has picked up in the past two sessions so something is going on here. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see if that comes to fruition tomorrow. Employment data on tap and that could get things moving. The short term indicators for the S&P have stalled at the mid-range level. So it looks like things could go either way from here. I still think the market is on the verge of turning around here but have been proven wrong in the near term. Gold was up $22 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped. The XAU fell 3 1/4, while GDX dropped a buck. Volume was a touch above average. Gold up and the gold shares down isn't a good sign for the bulls or my GDX October calls. That trade is showing a loss and came within a tick of getting stopped out near the close. GDX is very oversold on a short term basis but cannot get anything going to the upside. More negative price action tomorrow will stop me out of the current trade. Although yesterday I was thinking to chase this idea at a different strike price, today I'm more in the camp of taking the loss and stepping aside. When the technical signals don't work that would be the more prudent course of action. But we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat after being higher early on. The short term indicators here are trending sideways near the mid-range level. The daily candlestick chart for the VIX looks like it wants to go lower which would bode well for stocks. But what it looks like and what it does are sometimes two different things. Asia was up with the exception of India and Europe down overnight. We'll see how the markets react to the jobs numbers and close out the trading week tomorrow.