Friday, February 27, 2015
Selling today as the Dow lost 82 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. I don't expect that this is the beginning of any substantial down trend. We are working off the short term overbought condition in my opinion. The small stocks were also weak today and that is a change. But the advance/declines were not negative for the market. I think this is more of an end of the month thing than anything else. I could be wrong. But perhaps there will be an opportunity next week to get some SPY March calls. We'll see. GE was up a dime on good volume. We finished well off of the highs for the session though and that isn't a good sign. Still, there are 3 weeks to go in the March option cycle and the GE calls that I own are solidly in the black. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished the day little changed. The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was light here. I think the gold shares have simply come off of oversold levels this week. I do not think that this is the beginning of a multi-week uptrend. I'm still considering the April gold share calls at some point next month. Mentally I'm feeling OK. After such a huge move higher for the stock indexes in the February option cycle, you cannot expect a repeat here for the March cycle. I do believe calls are in order for March but the gains will not be as robust as they just were. Perhaps a doubling of option premium if the timing on the SPY calls is correct. That's a guess as usual. I certainly don't have a crystal ball. I can say that last months set up was much better than what we have so far here. GE had a good week and has put that trade in the black. The weekly chart has a bit more room to run but on the daily chart, not so much. The short term technical indicators for GE remain overbought. I'll have to plan some type of exit strategy for that trade over the weekend. I don't have any other new ideas right now. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend and be back here on Monday to begin the month of March. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, February 26, 2015
More churn and grind and going nowhere fast. The Dow fell 10 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. We will end the trading month of February tomorrow. Probably some more selling but I don't expect anything major. We are working off the short term overbought condition before moving higher in my opinion. The trend remains up until proven otherwise. If I'm lucky we'll get more of a pullback and a chance for the SPY March calls. If not, I'll look for another trade elsewhere. GE was flat on the session with average volume. The daily chart is very overbought but I did not sell the March calls that I own. The weekly chart shows that there is more room to go on the upside for GE. With 3 weeks to go in the March option cycle, I've decided to hold on for a bit longer. This may or may not be the right decision. Gold was up 8 bucks on the futures despite huge gains in the US dollar. That is bullish for the precious metal. The XAU and GDX only had fractional gains. I'm going to remain patient here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indices have tried to sell off on a daily basis only to come back each time. This is a positive going forward. The small stocks continue to move up and outperform. This is bullish as well. I'm not saying this is going to go on indefinitely but until it changes we have to stick with the trend. Perhaps we will see some beginning of the month money flow in March. But that's a guess as usual. So we'll continue to monitor what happens overnight and close out the week and month tomorrow.
Wednesday, February 25, 2015
It's getting a little sloppy here as the Dow gained 15 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The very overbought short and medium term condition cannot last forever. We really need to see some pullback. If and when that occurs should give the opportunity to try the SPY March calls. Getting back to the 50 day average would be a great set up but I don't think that's in the cards. GE exploded to the upside on heavy volume. It gained 1/2, which is a big move for this stock. My March GE calls are now solidly in the black. The technical indicators are also very overbought here so I may just dump the calls tomorrow if we get some follow through. GE moving higher does bode well for the overall market. Gold was up around $5 on the futures and the US dollar was lower. The XAU gained 1 3/8, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was good here. I'm still advocating patience for the gold shares at this juncture. I think the April calls can be purchased in March as a potential trade down the road. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 days to go in February and I guess the question is will we see some of the gains for the month taken here? It wouldn't be a surprise. Plenty of time in the March option cycle for a successful trade. I cannot explain the move up today for GE. The news out was nothing special. Why it decided to move today is beyond my scope of knowledge. GE is getting pretty far from its 50 day moving average. I'll ponder what to do here tonight. We'll watch the overseas action tonight and see what happens tomorrow.
Tuesday, February 24, 2015
Trending higher as the Dow gained 92 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The rally is getting thinner as the overall market was weaker than the Dow. Yellen spoke but didn't really say anything. So there were no surprises for the market to deal with. The summation index continues higher. Both short and medium term overbought for the major stock indices. That condition can continue but the risk to get long increases as each day passes. So I've got to be patient for now. GE was up over 20 cents and the volume was average. My GE March calls are now showing a slight profit. GE is also above the 200 day moving average now. Gold and the US dollar were both slightly weaker. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses. Nothing doing here for now. The game plan remains to wait until March to attempt any gold share trades. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We could be in for just a slow grind higher for the stock indexes and that will not provide a good trading entry point. With the current overbought conditions the prudent course of action is to wait for some type of pullback. Simply buying the index calls at this point is not a good idea. The environment is different from when this rally began. I do expect higher prices though. However the stock indices are pretty far above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. The near term upside could be limited. On the plus side there is no overhead resistance. It is a time to be patient in my opinion. The market goes where it wants. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, February 23, 2015
A waiting game today as the Dow shed 23 points on light volume. The advance/declines were even. The Fed chief Janet Yellen is speaking before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Market players will listen to what she has to offer and decide whether it is bullish or bearish. This is the world that we live in. Technically, the major stock indices are still short term overbought. I'm hoping for a pullback to get some SPY March calls. However the daily pattern remains that same. Selling early and then then buying for the rest of the trading day. GE was down a nickel and the volume was light. My GE March calls are at break even. Gold didn't do much today but the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU and GDX were little changed. Seems like all the markets basically took the day off. Asian markets including China were closed today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm still a believer of higher stock prices going forward. The small stocks continue to perform well and that is bullish. I don't think that we'll see the magnitude of gains in the March option cycle that we just saw in February. However there should still be profitable trades out there. Gold remains on the back burner for now. We'll watch the overnight action and see what transpires from the Fed testimony tomorrow.
Friday, February 20, 2015
And away we go. The Dow climbed 154 points today on news of another deal to save Greece. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive but the volume appears to be light. We've gotten above the 2100 level in the S&P 500 and there is no overhead resistance. Todays intra-day market pattern was the same as all week. A sell off to start the day and then buying for the remainder. We are going higher it is simply a matter of how much. At this rate a pullback to purchase March calls doesn't appear in the cards. But you never know. GE was up 18 cents on average volume. Right at the 200 day moving average now. My GE March calls are back to break even. 4 weeks to go in this trade. Looks like it might actually show a profit at some point. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures and a few more in the aftermarket. A deal for Greece won't help the price of gold. The US dollar was little changed. The XAU and GDX were off fractionally. NEM was up over a buck on its earnings today. Perhaps on the next gold share trade NEM and ABX will show the most single stock potential. They rose on their earnings reports while the previous leader GG fell. Just a thought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices remain overbought. But we are breaking out to the upside here and that cannot be ignored. The measuring objective for the S&P 500 on the weekly chart is 2200 from here at the minimum. Now I don't know if we will get there in the March option cycle but we'll get there eventually some time this year. I still expect this to be a very good year for the stock market. We'll have to wait and see if next week gives us a chance to buy some SPY calls. Gold is unloved now and patience is required to try another long trade in the gold shares. April calls will be the target but purchase will have to wait until some point next month. I'll be checking the charts this weekend in hopes of coming up with some new ideas. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, February 19, 2015
Lower today as the Dow fell 44 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The market has sold off at the open each day so far this week. 2100 is the resistance for the S&P 500 but I am quite sure we will make it thorough this barrier. The small stocks continue to gain ground and that is a positive. The summation index continues higher as well. There isn't any overhead resistance once we get through 2100. I'm hoping for a pullback to get some SPY March calls. GE was off a couple cents and the volume was light. Overbought here and stalling at the 200 day moving average. Gold was up $7 on the futures despite todays rise in the US dollar. The gain was a carryover from the aftermarket action yesterday. The XAU was off 1 3/4, while GDX dropped 1/2. This was in part due to the weak earnings from GG. ABX rose on its earnings report. I'm still waiting before trying the gold share calls again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It is simply a waiting game at this point for the next trade. We will close out the February options tomorrow. There is no rush at the moment to do anything. Markets are closed in Asia as well for the new years celebrations. The S&P 500 remains in short term overbought condition. Continued near term weakness would be the ideal scenario for getting some index calls. However the market will go where it wants. Once we get through the 2100 level on the S&P 500 with good volume, I'm pretty sure that we will see a sustained rally again. Hasn't happened yet but it will at some point. Nobody is interested in gold again and that is usually a good time to take a look at it. The weak seasonal time period is a headwind. I might try the April gold share calls sometime in March. We'll close out the week tomorrow with expiration Friday.
Wednesday, February 18, 2015
A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 17 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The NASDAQ was up on the session and that is a positive. The short term overbought condition remains. That doesn't mean that we can't go higher, considering that it's expiration week. But we will probably need to see some type of pullback/consolidation before we can go significantly higher. The Fed minutes were dovish and that provided some support. Just waiting to get some SPY March calls. GE was up a few cents and the volume backed off from yesterday. Approaching the 200 day moving average here. If we can get through, perhaps my GE March calls can turn a profit. hasn't happened yet. Gold was down $8 on the futures but made all that back and then some in the aftermarket. The dovish Fed statement will be considered the reason. The US dollar was flat on the session. The gold shares perked up as the XAU gained 1 2/3 and GDX rose 1/2. Volume picked up as well. I still am in the camp of waiting for March when it comes to getting long the gold shares. Earnings are due here in the next few weeks. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Only two days left for the February options. The risk is too extreme for me to try a trade here with so little time. I suppose the ideal scenario would be for the stock indices to drop back to their 50 day moving averages and then purchase some March calls. But the markets will go where they want. I'll try and remain patient for the next set up. In the meantime perhaps GE can provide me with some needed profit. We'll see. We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, February 17, 2015
A one day reversal to the upside to begin a shortened trading week as the Dow gained 28 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative though. The summation index continues higher. Short term overbought on the technical indicators for the major stock indices. The S&P 500 has reached the 2100 level. Had I taken the SPY February call trade, this would be the time to get out. I'm looking at the SPY March calls now. We are due for a rest, perhaps after expiration week. GE was flat and the volume was good. My March calls there are still in the red. The gold futures took a hit today despite the weakness in the US dollar. The yellow metal fell over twenty bucks. The US dollar dropped 1/3. The XAU lost 2 1/3, while GDX dropped 2/3. Volume picked up to the downside and that isn't bullish. We are also in a weak seasonal period for gold. I am going to look at the April gold share calls at some point in March. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I think we can trudge higher here for the stock indexes this week. There isn't a lot of economic data due. The Fed minutes tomorrow is probably the main event. No real imperative trading ideas at the moment. Sometimes you have to be patient and this is one of those times. The February SPY call trade was missed. So we are waiting on the next potential set up. Although the stock indexes are overbought, I do not think that a short trade is the right idea here. Getting long after a pullback is the preferred idea for now. We'll watch the foreign markets overnight and go from there.
Friday, February 13, 2015
Knocking on the door of a new all time high for the Dow and 2100 on the S&P 500. The Dow gained 47 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to the upside. A holiday weekend on tap for the US markets. We'll see how high the market gets in expiration week with its usual positive bias. Really nothing to be but long here. Declines continue to be bought and will be in my opinion for a while. Overbought, staying there and no reason to be short or buy puts. The small caps continue to lead the way and that is bullish. GE was up 1/4 on better volume. Above the 50 day moving average now and we've broken the down trend line that began last November. My GE March calls are now just slightly in the red. Five weeks to go for this trade and there should be enough time to turn it into a winner. Gold gained $6 on the futures. The US dollar was flat on the session. The XAU rose 2/3 and GDX was up 1/8. Volume was pretty light for the gold shares as traders interests now lie elsewhere. The safe haven trade is over in my opinion but could resurface in the future. No trades for the gold shares at the moment for me despite the upcoming earnings reports. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We've had a decent rally in the major stock averages and I believe that it has a lot further to go. Once we break out to new highs there will be no overhead resistance. The only way to be here is long until proven otherwise. If by chance we see some type of pullback I'll be looking at the SPY March calls. The ideal situation will also show the short term technical indicators as oversold. Hasn't happened yet and may not. We could just plow higher. GE is looking better on the weekly chart as the technicals there have now turned up. It would help to see better volume though. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to see if I can come up with any other trading ideas. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
Thursday, February 12, 2015
Higher we go as the Dow gained 110 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The prognosis remains the same. New all time highs are coming. The major stock indices are short term overbought now and staying there. I did not get a chance to take advantage of the rally even though it was expected. We never did see any decline to drop the premiums on the calls that I would have liked to pay. So the SPY February call trade will go down as another missed opportunity. But at least my take on the market is correct at the moment. The retail sales number was weak but we rallied anyway. In this kind of rally mode, the numbers will always be considered bullish regardless. The question now become just how high can we go? GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light. My GE March calls are still in the red. The market keeps chugging along higher and I'm in slow moving GE. At least I still have time on my side here. Gold was only up a buck or so on the futures despite a decent drop in the US dollar. The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX gained 1/4. Volume remains light here. Interest in the precious metals has backed off for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I guess I'll start taking a look at the SPY March calls. The measuring objective from the 2 month consolidation in the S&P 500 is pretty high. But I'll need to see the technical indicators back off again and get to short term oversold. That could take a while. It won't be before the February expiration. So it's time to be patient once again. Hopefully I'll have the guts to get long on the next signal. But as always the market goes where it wants. This was a good trade missed on the SPY February calls. My thinking now is that the players won't believe that the rally will keep on going, once we get some type of multi-day decline. Or who knows? maybe we'll just keep heading up. We'll watch the overnight action and close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, February 11, 2015
The market tried to sell off today but to no avail. The Dow fell 6 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. We are going higher in my opinion. The fact that the small stocks are showing good relative strength here solidifies that view. I'm still calling for new all time highs before the February option expiration. The only question that remains is will there be a chance to purchase some SPY calls on a decline in the next couple of days. GE was up a nickel and the volume was light. My GE March calls are stuck in the red. Gold fell about $12 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU was off 1 1/2 and GDX shed 3/8. Volume remains light here as the flight to safety has abated for now. This is not a positive seasonal period for gold. Mentally I'm hanging in there. I guess I can hope that the retail sales report is met with selling but hope is not a trading strategy. So we will have to see how the market moves off of that number and go from there. There is nothing else to do for now. I do not have any other trading ideas here. So we'll continue to watch what happens overnight and see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, February 10, 2015
Heading higher as the Dow climbed 139 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. At this rate there may not be an opportunity to buy some SPY February calls. We could just keep moving up. It is possible that yesterday was the only pull back that we'll see. However we do still have 3 days left this week and the retail sales number that could be a market mover. The short term technical indicators are overbought for the major stock indices. They could very well stay that way. So we'll watch and wait. GE was up a few cents and still hasn't gotten past the 50 day moving average. GE not moving up significantly with the overall market is not a good sign for my GE March calls. Gold fell around ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher today. The XAU was off 1 1/3, while GDX dropped 3/8. The interest in the gold shares has waned. USO was lower by 7/8 as it still trades below the 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm doing OK. The market has a positive tone to it. Declines are being bought. I'm still looking for the S&P 500 to get to 2100 by expiration. That's my best guess at the moment. There really isn't much else to say at this time. Waiting to get some SPY calls before expiration and the chance to purchase may have already passed. I don't have any other trades on the radar. We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US higher overnight.
Monday, February 09, 2015
Weakness to begin the week as the Dow fell 95 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. I'm expecting some downside/consolidation this week ahead of next weeks option expiration. That will fit in with my buying some SPY February calls this week. Retail sales on Thursday seems to be the only economic data that will be relevant this week. So perhaps I will wait until then to purchase unless we see some decent downside in the next couple of days. I'm still expecting new all time highs for the major stock indices by Februarys expiration. GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light. Almost back to the 50 day moving average here. Gold bounced back over $5 today as the US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX added 1/3. Light volume for the gold shares. I don't expect much movement here for the gold shares until the earnings arrive later this month. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Patience is required now before the next trade attempt. I do want to try the SPY February calls though. A pull back to 2025 on the SPX would be ideal. Timing, as always, will be an important key. This will be a strictly short term endeavor, there are only 8 days left in the February option cycle. So we'll see. My GE March calls are still in the red. Plenty of time left there for now. We'll keep an eye on the overnight news and take it from there.
Friday, February 06, 2015
A one day reversal to the downside to finish off the week as the Dow fell 60 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. It's isn't a surprise to see some profit taking or selling after the week we just saw. I would not be too worried about today or the next few for that matter. I would like to see some weakness to set up a decent move higher in expiration week. That will be the next attempt at a trade. The employment report was a bit stronger than expected but it wasn't a dramatic market mover. The summation index continues higher. GE was on up a couple pennies but was higher early. Volume was light. Maybe this March call trade for GE isn't going to work out. Six weeks left there. Gold fell hard on the employment report as the US dollar rallied. The precious metal futures dropped almost 30 bucks. The XAU was off over 4 and GDX lost 1 1/4. The technical indicators for the gold shares have rolled over. USO was up again today though. Perhaps we've seen the worst for the oil sector. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm sticking with my hypothesis of new all time highs in the major stock indices before February expiration. I'll try to get some SPY calls next week on weakness. I think we can get to 2100 on the S&P 500 within this time frame. There is one less day going out from here due to the holiday a week from Monday. But I am confident that this is the right idea and will try and make some money from it. As always timing will be the key and hopefully this time around I'll be able to make the proper adjustments. But you never know. Gold had a tough week. But we have yet to break the up trend line that began back in November. That comes in at about the $1210 level. If things get contained there perhaps the gold share calls can be looked at for a trade. No rush to do anything though. I'm going to try and rest over the weekend to be ready for next week. I'm practically back to feeling normal after being ill. Plenty of charts to check in the next two days. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
Thursday, February 05, 2015
Powering higher as the Dow shook off the Greece news and rose 211 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 higher. The summation index is moving up. You have to recognize what is going on. There are no sellers. Monday morning took out the last of them. The employment report won't matter. We are going higher and it doesn't look like there will be another potential entry point at this rate. Missing out on this opportunity is painful. But the game goes on. GE was up 1/3 but the volume was light. My GE March calls are still in the red. The gold futures were flat today despite a huge drop in the US dollar. The XAU added a point, while GDX tacked on 1/3. Volume was light for the gold shares. I expected a better move up in gold on the Greece news but it didn't happen. As always, the market reaction to news is more important than the news itself. Mentally I'm doing OK. Not altogether feeling 100% yet. Quite a beginning to the month of February for the stock market. February is typically not a bullish time period. Hard to argue with what has transpired so far. Perhaps at some point next week we can try the SPY calls for the expiration week bounce. But that is probably wishful thinking. I still say we are getting to new all time highs in the stock indexes before the February expiration. Nothing else to report today. We'll see how the employment numbers go and close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, February 04, 2015
A mixed market today as we digest the recent gains. The Dow was up 6 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. We dropped hard in the last half hour and that's a near term negative. I'm still a believer in higher prices and will try the SPY February calls if I get the chance. Patience might be needed here though. We do have employment data to muddle through on Friday. GE was off 1/3 and the volume was light. GE hasn't really moved up with the overall market here and that is not a good sign. But that could change. Gold rose about $5 on the futures and the US dollar came back up today. The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX gained 3/8. We have built a tight small coil on the gold share indexes. We'll have to see which way it breaks out. The gold shares indexes have also stalled at their 200 day moving averages. I'd be guessing if I said which way I think things can go here. Shorter term the technical are mid-range. Longer term, we're overbought. Mentally I'm feeling tired, not 100% just yet. It appears that problems in Greece are about to take center stage again. That could roil the markets tomorrow and might provide some support and buying in gold and the US dollar. We'll see. Perhaps it will provide an opportunity for the SPY February calls. USO was lower today. Maybe the short covering rally there is over. One thing that hasn't changed is volatility. It remains a condition that has to be dealt with at this time. I need to get some rest so once again I am cutting this short. It will be interesting to see what happens on the Greece news tomorrow.
Tuesday, February 03, 2015
Quite a move today as the Dow roared 305 points higher on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading higher. Well, at least my ideas are heading in the right direction. But money needs to be made. I think we'll see new all time highs by expiration in February. The ideal buy time was yesterday morning but there is probably still time to make a trade. Any decline will be bought. There are no more sellers for now. The bounce in oil is probably as good a reason as anything. However the technical set-up was there, I just didn't have the right orders placed. Too slow to make any adjustments didn't help either. At least I'm starting to feel a bit better though. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was average. Perhaps the GE March call trade will work itself out. Gold fell $15 on the futures and the US dollar had a weak session for a change. Perhaps the flight to safety trade is over. The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX lost 1/2. USO was up a point and has had a nice bounce. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite missing this huge two day move. There will be plenty of trades to make this year anyway. Physically I'm regaining strength and should be back to normal by the end of the week. I'd expect some backing and filling ahead of the employment report. But it would be no surprise to just keep heading higher. I'm pretty sure new all time highs for the major stock indices will be coming in the next 2 1/2 weeks. Hopefully I'll be able to position something for a profit before then. The dollar dropped hard today and gold didn't rally. That isn't bullish for the precious metal. It doesn't mean that it will be heading for a big drop but it may signal sideways to lower near term. That's a guess as usual. We'll keep an eye on the overnight news and see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, February 02, 2015
Volatility reigns as we started off the month with a one day reversal to the upside. The Dow gained 196 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. Today was probably the day to buy the SPY February calls. I did have an order in overnight but it was not filled. I'll be looking to get something on any weakness in the next few days before the employment report but it might already be too late. The short term technical indicators are already moving up. I'm not at 100% physically yet and I suppose I can blame the missed chance on that. But there are no excuses in this game. GE was up 1/3 on OK volume. My GE March calls here are still losers. Gold fell a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower as well. The XAU was up a point while GDX was flat. I'm guessing gold is due for a breather here. USO was up again but I would not call this a rally there just yet. Mentally I'm still a little slow. A positive turnaround for stocks today and the final hour saw a good jump and that is bullish. A bigger look at things says this can still be considered a consolidation of the rally that occurred in Oct/Nov. That is still my point of view. You could think that the market is just trying to hold on before it collapses beneath the recent lows. That is another way to look at things here. But I'm sticking with a bullish resolution and will try and get some SPY February calls. I need to get some more rest. We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow higher overnight.