Sunday, February 29, 2004
It's sunday. Time to look back at last week and plan the coming week. Last week the GE trade turned into a loser. The daily and weekly charts don't look good. GE has returned once again to the breakout level of $32.50. It must hold here. The 50 day moving average line has now also risen to this level. The weekly charts look like they are about to break down and take GE to $30. Can it hold here? Don't know. The overall market is in the same got to hold here or lower prices in the works. The all important employment report comes out on friday. I don't know if I can wait that long. Probably should take the loss in GE and look for something else. The week ahead seems as though we will get the same drift until friday. No volume has been the rule for the last month and I see no reason for the big boys to step up to the plate ahead of friday. In the meantime the options on GE simply erode while marking time until friday. This is one of the many dilemmas in the world of trading. But what can you do, really? Trading is what you do. You can't admit it to others but you are at least honest with yourself. You don't mind when monday comes along because the markets will be in full swing again. Monday isn't something you dread. Sunday night you are checking the Globex quotes and scanning the wires. You love to trade, maybe even live to trade. When others complain about returning to their jobs on monday you realize how lucky you are to trade. It isn't a job, it's a calling. Most don't feel the same as you and do not understand. But that's just the way it is. Now we will see what the coming week has in store for the markets and GE in particular. It will need to start heading up now or it's done. More tomorrow...
Thursday, February 26, 2004
More of the same marketwise. Going nowhere with no interest. It has been this way for quite some time. It's like the summer doldrums in the winter. GE is down around 15 cents. Overall market about to close down 10 or 20 points, maybe flat. Maybe tomorrows economic numbers can spur some movement one way or the other. This GE trade needs to get going or it's bye-bye money. Not looking good. Next week could be time to cut the loss and move on to something else. But I still believe the powers that be will run this thing up into the March expiration. Time will tell.
Wednesday, February 25, 2004
Market about to close today. Got the expected bounce, up about 40 points. But it is a weak bounce with little volume. GE is down around 30 cents. The options I purchased are now losing money. A weak market rally attempt and GE can't move with it. This is not good for me. Although there are over 3 weeks left for these options, if they don't get going by fridays close they will be losers. I really think GE has to close the week at $33.50 or better for these to work. The market needs something to get it going but there looks like no news for this week. We will see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, February 24, 2004
It's the final half hour of trading for the day. The market has been down along with GE. There really hasn't been any earthshattering news one way or the other. It is days such as this, when one might question his or her judgment and abilities. The market isn't doing what I expected just yet. I still think that this trade will work. My own RSI indicator that I made up is telling me this thing will bounce tomorrow or the next day. You gotta trust yourself. I'll also say that the Dow will hit 11000 by the March expiration on the 19th. That's a guess, but what isn't when trying to predict the future? At least the option price of GE hasn't gone down. It's still right where I purchased it. I'll try to get back here tomorrow.
Monday, February 23, 2004
Hello. This is the start of Jimmybees Stock Market Trading Blog. I'll write my views on the Markets and also my thoughts about the trades I'm doing. The market has been moving sideways for the last few weeks. It is mildly oversold at this point. It will need a catalyst to move either up or down out of this trading range. One of the tools I use is the McClellan Oscillator. It has moved into oversold territory lately however the market has not sold off. It was -201 a couple weeks ago and should be fairly negative again today. I believe I have seen this in the past. When the Oscillator goes negative and the market doesn't sell off usually it will resolve itself to the upside. That's what I expect in the next few days and weeks. A move to new recovery highs as we break the top of resistance. Resistance is around 10750 on the Dow, 1155 on the SPX and 573 on the OEX. However the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 appear to be about ready to break down from their rising trends channels that are many weeks old. We are in an interesting spot. As for trades, I purchased some GE March 35 Calls about a week ago when GE fell back to its breakout point of $32.50. That point had been resistance for quite some time and it broke through on heavy volume and continued up over $34. I waited for the price to come back to the breakout point, $32.50, and then bought some calls. GE actually was up today even though the market was down. I have noticed that its relative strength on market down days has been pretty good. Anyway the price of the calls hasn't moved since I bought them. I'll keep you posted. I'm looking for GE to move up over $35 by March option expiration, which is on the 19th. Well that's it for today, I'll try to get back here tomorrow.