Thursday, August 31, 2006
The Dow lost a little over a point on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. End of the month. End of summer. Employment report tomorrow. Big Ben blabbed today. There just isn't a lot happening in the stock market lately. Gold was up 8 bucks and the XAU rose a couple of points. The gold issues are mixed here though. There was a takeover in the index today but the rest are choppy. ABX continues higher. I have no trades there for now. I'm a bit tired today. Mentally I need to get back on track. I'm still leaning towards puts for October. I'd like to see a little rise in the beginning of September and then get short. Summation index is still pointing higher. Volatility is light. I'm going to stay out until next week. Long weekend arriving tomorrow. It's a wait and see type of time...
Tuesday, August 29, 2006
The Dow gained 18 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The volume was nothing but the A/D line implies higher prices as does some of my other indicators. I am waiting to buy puts. I will probably go out to October. Gold was down a few bucks today but the XAU sold off and then came all the way back to be up for the day. I was thinking of getting some calls here on the XAU or ABX. This could be the end of its correction. However the volume is so light on the indices that I'm not sure what to make of any moves. I will have to check the charts again tonight. I'm pretty much sold on getting October puts on the OEX when it hits 610. That is the gameplan for now. I have a training class tomorrow for my day job and will not be able to blog here probably. I expect tomorrow to be an up day. I would be surprised if it wasn't. Mentally I'm trying to hold off this week for any trades until after Labor Day when we should be back to normal. I need to continue the work that needs to be done and stay focused on what needs to be done.
Monday, August 28, 2006
You know, I would really like to move from this lame-ass site. But the other sites are no better. So here I am. The Dow gained 67 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. I do see some near term strength coming here but I will probably use it as a spot to buy puts. It is the end of the summer and it's the last week of vacations and getting the kids ready for school. After Labor Day the real fun begins. I may go out to October on the puts. That could be the prudent thing to do. I haven't made a trade in quite a while, taking July off for vacation and all. But the time is coming. I have to be ready. Gold lost around $7 and the XAU shed about 3 points. Not sure what all that means and again, the volume is light. The employment report is out on Friday and the FOMC minutes will be released tomorrow. That's probably about it for the week. Friday could be light with a long weekend coming up. And so it goes. If anything, I'd like to be long here. But I'm trying to be patient. I think a really good trade is on the horizon. I've just got to be positioned to take it. Mentally I'm trying to get into the proper mode for success. I need to keep doing the work and paying attention.
Saturday, August 26, 2006
Thursday, August 24, 2006
The Dow was up 6 points on summer light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was higher than the Dow. I think higher prices are in the offing. No trades here though as I am trying to remain patient. Gold was down around $4 and the XAU lost 2 1/2 points. Volume was lighter on the decline. I have no trades there right now. I think the dollar will weaken and that will help gold but we are short term overbought. I'm trying to stay on the sidelines there as well. Not much else to say. I'm sticking with my scenario of a decline here in the fall but it may take longer to develop. October puts could be the play. I'll just wait and see for now and perhaps even get long early next week if it all lines up right. Mentally I'm getting caught up on what I need to do. Summer doldrums are here and we'll just have to see how long this lasts...
Wednesday, August 23, 2006
The Dow lost 42 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Poor housing sales was the news today with some Iran rumbling. Just trying to get through the rest of the summer really. We came back in the last hour. I'm still looking to get short but sometime next week. I'm going to wait for a divergence in the McClellan oscillator and the RSI. It will take at least a week. Gold was down a buck today and the XAU was little changed. Not sure what to do here. We are overbought and up against resistance. I'm not looking to short it here though and if anything, would like to go long. Otherwise there isn't much to report. Patience is key and I am even starting to look at October puts but they are expensive of course. I do have lots of reading to catch up on and this is a good time to do that. I am also in the process of changing online brokers for my individual stock purchases. But I'm ready to go if a trade appears on the radar. That's about it for today.
Tuesday, August 22, 2006
Monday, August 21, 2006
Friday, August 18, 2006
The Dow was up 46 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are now short term overbought. I would like to get some puts on the OEX. We will be longer term overbought by Tuesday if the action remains positive. It could be a tricky trade though. They all are. I feel good about it but I think perhaps a better trade will emerge later this month. But I will probably give it a try if I can get a decent price getting in. I'll decide over the weekend. Gold was off a couple of bucks. The XAU sold off a couple of points and then came all the way back. It looks like a time to get long there but I'm not sure. I need to check the economic calendar over the weekend. It's summer and I maybe should wait before making a serious trade. That said, I am getting a sell signal and we'll see what happens...
Thursday, August 17, 2006
The Dow gained 7 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up higher but sold off. Running out of steam here perhaps but the technicals look to go higher. I'm not sure and would like to get some OEX puts. But the option cycle will just be beginning. It's a tough call. If I get a solid signal I guess I'll give it a try. Gold lost around $14 and the XAU was down around 3 points. I haven't been watching this as close as I need to lately. I'll check the charts tonight. Don't know if a play is imminent. It is summer and the end of August really isn't a time to get too bold. That said, I would like to make some money. Patience isn't always the easiest thing in the world. Same goes for discipline. My thinking is the earnings in the fall will disappoint and the market will drop. How to play that and from what levels is the key. And that scenario could be wrong too. So I will keep on watching and waiting. My studies will continue and I will try and wait for the next good opportunity. It's coming...
Wednesday, August 16, 2006
The Dow gained another 96 points on good volume to a new 3 month high. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. It looks like nowhere but up. The summation index is pointing higher again. Perhaps my scenario of lower prices in the autumn is wrong. I have missed a good trade here. Intuition counts for something in this game too. Really nothing to do now but be patient and wait. There is no other option at this time. Perhaps the earnings will be poor in the fall and that will be a catalyst for a drop. Perhaps not. I don't want to jump into anything here at the moment. Augusts trade was missed and that is all there is to it. Gold was up around $9 and the XAU rose a couple of points. The volume was light here and I have no gold trades in the works at the moment. Not much else to say. It is summer but that is no excuse to let up here. I am reading the blue book and getting caught up on other readings. I am checking the charts and trying to stay on top of things. Mentally I'm OK at the moment. We'll see how expiration week ends up...
Tuesday, August 15, 2006
The Dow rose 132 points today on OK volume for the summer. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The producer inflation actually dropped today, fueling the rally. So it turns out yesterdays poor action on charts didn't matter. The original OEX call theory was correct but it would have been quite a ride to hold them until this morning. None the less, I'm moving on because I think the next potential trade on the put side will work also. Gold was down around $6 today but the XAU rose around 2 points. The volume was light there so it is not to be trusted at this point. I don't see any gold trades at the moment but I will have to check things again tonight. Getting back to the overall market it looks like perhaps it will run up here for expiration week and that will be the chance to get some September puts. That could be my play. Technically there might be a little more room here to the upside but I don't think we are going to new recovery highs. I could be wrong. I'll keep an eye on the volume. Mentally, I'm a bit spent as computer problems occurred again today with no email the main one. The others I was able to work out but a new system needs to be looked into. I need to get back to constant reading of the blue book. I need to stay on top of things and do the work required. I need the discipline to come back but I also need to listen to myself. I knew the producer prices would not be high this month. The commodities have leveled off. I'm not so sure about the consumer prices. We'll find out tomorrow. I'm trying to stay on the sidelines for this cycle. September looms and I think that will be the time to go for it...
Monday, August 14, 2006
The Dow gained 10 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The market was up over 100 at one point but couldn't hold it. That usually isn't a good sign. We are getting short term oversold though. I am going to try and not do anything stupid this week. The longer term charts for the OEX look like they could be shorted. The summation index could be rolling over here. I have some September puts on the screen already and I guess that's where I'll look to. Gold was off 5 bucks and the XAU lost over 2 points. The volume has picked up to the downside on ABX and NEM. Interesting. Perhaps the market is telling me that interest rates will be rising, helping the dollar and driving the price of gold and stocks down. Perhaps not. It could be a result of the ceasefire announced and beginning today in Lebanon. Or the action could just be option expiration week related. It never is easy. We are headed into the seasonally weak period for the market though. I want to own some puts. I don't see any big rallies on the horizon for the market here. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated with not being able to get a firm handle on things. There are also some outside pressures that I'm dealing with that make things difficult. However I will not let anything interfere with the tasks at hand. The market must be studied, probed and taken advantage of. Opportunities are coming, if not here already.
Friday, August 11, 2006
My computer has been on the fritz and this is the first that I can post. There is no time for computer problems when trading. Your equipment must be reliable. The stress of not being able to do what is necessary due to hardware problems is uncalled for. Trading is hard enough, you don't need any extra hassles. The market lost 36 points today on light volume. Volume has dried up since the Fed on Tuesday. Advance/declines were negative. I think we are close to going negative on the summation index. However I did have an overnight order to get some OEX calls here but it was not filled. I canceled it when I got up this morning. I might try again on Monday. We'll see after things are checked over the weekend. This computer still needs to be dealt with. Gold was down the past couple of days and the XAU has lost around 6 points since I was last here. Not sure what to do there at the moment. I do think that calls could perhaps work on the OEX early next week. But I'm not totally sold on that idea. The light volume tells me there is no interest in the market at this time. The more prudent path could be to just sit it out another month and wait for a decent set-up. I don't know. Next week is expiration week and there will probably be some opportunity. Inflation reports are out on Tuesday and Wednesday. Also there was a major terror arrest while I was gone from here in the past couple of days. That influenced the markets to some extent. Technically we are moving to oversold short term and that is why calls on the OEX might be the play. We'll see. There is work to do over the weekend if I want to try a trade next week. I am slowly getting back into full market mode and that is what it is going to take to be successful here.
Tuesday, August 08, 2006
The Dow lost 45 points today. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. The Fed did not raise rates. The market initially rose on the news and my order for OEX puts was almost filled. It got to within a nickel but wasn't filled. The market then turned around and sold off. It did what I expected but I didn't make any money on it. Frustrating but you gotta move on. Gold was down a bit and the XAU was off a couple of points. My main problem today was my computer constantly freezing up. It is hard enough to trade and concentrate on what needs to be done without computers problems. I am going to have to buy a new computer. So I will have to do some research and shop around. It is a situation that I don't want to deal with but you need a legitimate machine to do business on. There is no getting around it. I am really getting tired of having to do everything myself but that is just the way it goes. Better to deal with it now than when I have a really big trade on. I do not have any other trades in the offing. But if we grind our way lower here I will look to get long. Gold doesn't look attractive at the moment. That's all for today. I think the market could just slow down here and get a bit boring with traders on vacation for summer. We'll see.
Monday, August 07, 2006
The Dow lost 20 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I was up early but did not get a chance to buy any OEX puts. I am waiting for some type of rally to get short. I don't know if the opportunity will present itself before the Fed announcement tomorrow. I might just wait it out but I don't want to do that. It's a tricky call as usual. Gold was up about 4 bucks and the XAU rose around a point and a half. Volume was light here, way off recent activity. I have a thought of getting some puts on the XAU here as well. If the Fed raises rates as I suspect it will make the dollar stronger and hence gold should fall. The XAU is also at resistance. It is mildly overbought on the technicals. However I have been tracking the OEX here and I believe that will be the play. But ya never know. I'm trying to be patient here but there isn't much time left before the Fed tomorrow. I'm getting some mixed signals but action should and must be taken. The options expire at the end of next week. The McClellan oscillator has given a short term sell signal. These signals have been working well lately. The summation index is still pointing up though. It's never easy. Mentally I'm a bit tired but nothing that will hinder my decisions. I'd like to make some money and I'm ready to go. The fighting is still going on in Lebanon and any stoppage of the battle should sink gold also. However no end is in sight at this time. Oil rose a couple bucks today on a pipeline stoppage in Alaska. Gold did not follow as strongly as it could have. Tomorrow could hold the key for a while and I really need to get it right. We'll see how it plays out...
Friday, August 04, 2006
The Dow lost a couple points but traded all over the place today. Opened much higher, then went down fifty points and ended up where it did. Volume was good and the advance/declines were positive. I did put in an order to get some puts and then modified it. Did not get filled. I will perhaps try again on Monday. I still want to get in a play on the Fed announcement but I could be wrong. The market seems to just want to go higher. A lot of people are bullish. I will try and buy some puts though. Gold was higher and then came back to be about unchanged. The XAU was off fractionally and was much higher earlier. Thought about shorting the XAU but not sure and will need to check things over the weekend. I think the Fed will set the tone and that will be the key but again I could be wrong. The technicals seem to support a down move here but I don't know how much. Anything could happen. I need to check the reports coming out next week also. It's the weekend and I'll try to relax but work needs to be done. There could be an opportunity here and I'd like to try and take advantage of it. It is a difficult game as I've said many times before. And it's still summer so things happen that don't always fit into the overall picture. So I'll check the charts over the weekend and try not to do anything stupid on Monday.
Thursday, August 03, 2006
Wednesday, August 02, 2006
The Dow rose 74 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The market just wants to move higher here. I suspect we will tread water tomorrow ahead of the employment report. Gold was up around $4 and the XAU rose 3 points. ABX was up good on heavy volume and it seems to be moving higher in the aftermarket. The XAU sold off and then roared back in the last half hour. Money seems to be flowing into ABX. I almost got some higher strike calls but didn't. No guts. We are really overbought there also. But sometimes it just doesn't matter I guess. Bottom line is that I missed it and that's that. I am still looking for a short play on the Fed next week. That is the plan. I think the employment report will be weak and that could be the last hurrah on the upside. Mentally I'm trying to get back in the groove. The next trade will be important because it could help set the tone for the second half of the year. I seem to be in a funk at the moment. But I think it too, will pass. I will continue to watch and wait for what I perceive to be the next opportunity. Patience is good sometimes too...
Tuesday, August 01, 2006
The Dow lost 60 points today and the volume picked up a bit. Advance/declines were negative. We came back in the final hour and the decline was well contained. I think we will just trend higher. I am going to wait for the Fed on Tuesday and get short before the announcement. That is the gameplan for now. Employment report on Friday and I expect it to be weak. Gold was up $12 today and the XAU rose 3 1/2 points. ABX continues higher ahead of the earnings. I have probably missed whatever I could have done here. I don't feel good about that but I am coming off of a vacation, so I can't get too down on myself. Trading isn't easy and you can't expect to just return to it and be as sharp as you need to be. I'm doing the best I can under the circumstances and don't want to rush into anything just for the sake of having a trade. Patience is important and I think the OEX put play will be the one to choose. But that could all change and I'm not too sure of anything at the moment. So I'll stay on the sidelines awaiting some clarification of where I'm headed. It is the summer so I'll most likely tread lightly. I expect the overall market will be higher tomorrow and then it's a wait and see attitude until Friday. ABX earnings after the close Wednesday and that should be a mover for that issue. Might be a sell on the news like NEM but it didn't work that way the last time. I guess I'll have to just wait and see...