Just another summer Monday as the Dow gained 100 points on end of the month good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving back up. End of the month tribulations today as well. A day of hanging around really as we wait for the next catalyst to get things moving one way or the other. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. We are sticking with our view that the August SPY puts will be the next idea here. When to purchase them remains the question. Perhaps we'll see some beginning of the month money flows into stocks tomorrow. We'll stay patient for now. Gold was up $4 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU gained 2 3/4, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was light. Both the XAU and GDX finished off of their best levels on the session and that's not a positive. The inverse head and shoulders pattern for GDX remains intact but we'll need to see a rise from here on good volume to be believers. Hasn't happened yet. My GDX August calls have swung to a small profit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today which doesn't fit with a positive day for stocks. The short term indicators here have turned up which implies some selling on the horizon. We'll see. We still have to sift through earnings this week and the jobs report on Friday. Asia was up and Europe mixed to complete the trading month. We'll check out how the market begins the month of August tomorrow.

Back to upside today as the inflation data come in better than expected. The Dow gained 176 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way and that remains a plus. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. There was no downside follow through from yesterdays slide so perhaps the rally will continue. However we remain ready to purchase the SPY August puts. The timing here will be the key as we follow our indicators and signals. Patient for now. Gold was up over $50 on the futures but that was an anomaly because the futures moved into the next quarterly cycle. The continuous contract gained $15. The US dollar was bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was light. My GDX August calls are still losers but just not as much. The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern for GDX is barely intact. We would have to see gains from here to make it valid. It will depend on what transpires next week but I'm not so sure that gold is going to rally here. The technical picture is mixed at best and I don't see a catalyst for gains on the horizon. I'll consider the path to take over the weekend. There is still 3 weeks to go in the August option cycle. However if the market turns down soon as we suspect, the gold shares will most likely follow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and that fits with todays gains. Still short term oversold as it has been for a couple weeks. Below the 50 day moving average here as well. The VIX implies more gains for stocks at the moment. Yesterdays decline in the market appears to be a one day wonder after todays price action. But we'll see how things progress going forward. We've got the end of the month on Monday and then the beginning of August. Plenty of economic data to digest including Fridays jobs report. We'll go over the charts this weekend and try to come up with a game plan. Asia was mixed and Europe barely higher to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

We saw an incredible one day reversal to the downside as the market opened with a huge gap up to start the day and then sold off to end with a decent loss. The Dow broke its winning streak and fell 237 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. This should start the summation index moving sideways. GDP came in better than expected and provided a boost at the open. We are not sure if this is the final top for the S&P 500 on this rally but it could be. We will be hoping for a move back towards todays highs so that we can purchase the SPY August puts. It already may be too late if we continue to simply fall from here. The short term indicators for the S&P have now rolled over. There is plenty of room for them to move lower. One day doesn't make a trend though so we'll have to wait and see where we go from here. Gold got whacked as the futures fell $26 on the futures. The US dollar soared and interest rates were up. The XAU dropped over 4 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the downside. My open order for the GDX August calls got filled and now I'm not sure if I want this trade. It is already showing a loss. The short term indicators here have rolled back down with room to go lower. GDX also closed below its 50 day moving average. The potentail inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart here looks like it is going to fail. Only a quick reversal back to the upside can save it tomorrow. That is wishful thinking. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up today and that makes sense given the market decline. The short term indicators here have started to rise. The VIX does remain below its 50 day moving average for now. Well we're in the next trade and not really feeling good about it. Plenty of time remains in the August option cycle but todays price action in the gold shares was pretty negative. We've got inflation data out tomorrow and if it comes in hot I'd expect gold to continue to fall. Perhaps the Bank of Japan can save us tonight by adjusting their interest rate policy but that's a longshot at this point. Europe was up and Asia was generally higher as well last night. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It's now a bakers dozen for the Dow as it rose for the 13th day in a row. The most watched index gained 82 points on about summer average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The Fed raised rates as expected but the market didn't move around much until the Fed chairman started his speech. Up, down and back up was the pattern until the close. The S&P 500 finished basically unchanged and the NASDAQ posted a small loss. The technical conditions remain the same as the S&P continues to be short term overbought. We are in a market atmosphere that simply does not want to go down. This is supported by the index option premiums that remain skewed higher for the calls. Yes, we still like the August SPY puts at some point in the monthly cycle. But for now the bulls are in charge. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were down. This all occured despite the rise in rates from the Fed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume. My open order for the GDX August calls is still out there. The inverse head and shoulders pattern remains intact on the GDX daily chart. I will probably have to adjust the GDX call order that I have if I want it to be filled. However I'm not 100% sold on this idea because the pattern could fail. Getting to mid-range on the short term indicators for GDX now. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and is heading for the lowest level on the year. Short term oversold and staying that way on the indicators here. It was a pretty good drop in the VIX without a huge rally in stocks today. Not sure what that means going forward. We've still got GDP tomorrow and inflation data on Friday to sift through. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep watch on tonights headlines.

Make it an even dozen up days in a row as the Dow gained 26 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. The Dow is getting about as far away form its 50 day moving average than it can get. This won't end well. However when it ends is up for debate. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus. The S&P 500 is short term overbought and staying that way. We've got the Fed tomorrow but the rate hike anticipated is already a foregone conclusion. We'll have to see how the market reacts though. Overdue for some kind of pullback to be sure. We still favor the SPY August puts and maybe should already own them. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were a bit higher. The XAU was up 1 7/8, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains light here. I still have an open order out for the GDX August calls. The potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the GDX daily chart still has a chance to be valid. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished basically unchanged on the session and its technical condition remains the same. We'll see how it reacts to the Fed tomorrow as well. Stocks have been going up now for so long that I would not expect this rally to last that much longer. But markets go where they want and we cannot fight the flow of money here. Asia and Europe were generally higher overnight. We'll see what the Fed has to say and how the market responds tomorrow.

Seems like there is just no stopping the Dow as it starts off the week with a gain of 183 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues up. The Dow was the outperformer on the day. We remain short term overbought on the S&P 500. We've got plenty of earnings due this week and of course the Fed on Wednesday. 2nd quarter GDP on Thursday and inflation data on Friday. So there will be plenty of reasons for the markets to move. No time for the summer doldrums this week. I still favor the SPY August puts at some point but probably won't be getting them this week. We'll see. Gold dropped $10 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume. There is a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart for GDX. The short term technical indicators there are mid-range but pointing down. I did place an open order for the GDX August calls overnight and I'm leaving it out there. The measuring objective for the head and shoulders would be 36 if the pattern pans out. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with higher stock prices. Remaining short term oversold on most of the indicators here. The VIX is still bullish with its very low readings. It has remained pretty far from its 200 day moving average for weeks. I suppose we'll just watch and wait for now. Not sure what to expect with regards to the market reaction to the Fed. I can say for sure that the Dow will not go straight up forever and when it ends it probably won't be pretty. Asia was mixed and Europe flat to start the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Expiration Friday in the summer and it felt just like it. We opened with a gap higher and then proceded to trade sideways for the rest of the session. The Dow did manage to keep its winning streak alive as it gained just a couple of points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still moving up. The S&P 500 finished basically flat on the day. It remains short term overbought. We still favor the August puts there at some point going forward. The NASDAQ was lower but not to the degree that it declined yesterday. I'm in the cautious camp here as the Dow has gone straight up and we know that kind of price action never ends well. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was up and interest rates held steady. The XAU and GDX were mixed with slight fractional moves on very light volume. I'm still considering the GDX August calls but if the overall market heads south it might take the gold shares with it. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today and is still short term oversold. The Bollinger bands are starting to contract here again. It is another reason to be careful on the long side here because we could see a return of volatility. But we'll go over things on the weekend and take it from there. We've got the Fed next week and that should provide some market movement. Plus we've still got to sift through the ongoing earnings reports. Options premiums will be elevated since we are just moving into the August cycle. But for now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

There was a negative tone to the market today but that didn't stop the Dow from rising 164 points on light volume. That's the ninth day of gains in a row. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still moving up. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were lower on the session, with the NASDAQ off 2%. The short term indicators there have rolled over. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are still overbought but starting to curl over. With only a day left in the July option cycle I did sell the SPY puts that I bought yesterday. The exit was OK based on todays closing prices. The risk of holding on to them was more than I wanted to take. However if we see follow through selling tomorrow the results of course would be better. The gain was 160%. I don't usually succeed with the short term trades but this one was an exception. We are also still looking at the SPY August puts as well. Gold was lower by $9 on the futures. The US dollar was up along with interest rates. The XAU lost 3 points and GDX fell a point. Volume was almost average. NEM sold off on its earnings report. I canceled the open order for the GDX August calls that was out there. I still think that idea might work but at a lower strike price. Mentally I'm feeling better after a winning trade but must guard against being overconfident just becase one of our ideas worked out. Win or lose you've got to move on. The VIX was up today and that fits with the overall market heading lower. Still short term oversold for most of the indicators here. Expiration Friday on tomorrows agenda and we will most likely let that day go by without a trade before the weekend. Can the Dow make it ten days in a row to the plus side? Stay tuned. Europe up and Asia down in last nights trade. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

It seems like a market that just won't go down as the Dow gained 109 points on what now passes for average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Once again the Dow was the percentage leader to the upside. That's 8 days in a row higher for the Dow. It won't last forever but we also don't know when it will end. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and staying there. I did place an overnight order for the July SPY puts and it got filled. The entry could have been timed a little better. It is actually showing a slight profit after moving back and forth all day. This is certainly a risky venture and I should be out of it tomorrow, win or lose. Gold was up a buck today on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU was little changed, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was very light here again. I still have the open order out there for the GDX August calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with an up market. Still short term oversold here but the indicators are trying to turn back up. Not sure what to expect here next with regards to the VIX. We're in the next trade and it is short term to be sure. Will we hold it into expiration Friday? Tomorrows market movement will hopefully provide some answers. Europe and Asia were generally higher in todays trade. We'll keep an eye on the markets overnight.

Powering higher now into options expiration week as the Dow soared 366 points on close to average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues up. The Dow led the way today. We got a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions and we got that move today. Still short term overbought and staying that way for the S&P 500. Do we dare try the SPY July puts in the face of this strength? Perhaps. Some of the technical readings are at or near extremes. Obviously that can't go on forever. But with only 3 days to go in the July option cycle the risk would be way above normal. That said we might give this idea a try on strength tomorrow. However blow off tops like this can last longer than you think. Money is finding a home in stocks. Gold rallied as the futures were up $25. The US dollar was slightly higher and bonds finished little changed. The XAU rose 2 1/3, while GDX added almost 2/3. Volume was about average. I still have the open order out there for the GDX August calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that coincides with an up market. Still short term oversold here but not at extremes. So we will look over things tonight and ponder whether or not we want to take the risk on an SPY option trade with only 3 days to go. The timing in would be crucial of course but it also wouldn't matter if the market just stays higher into Fridays expiration. But I don't think that it will. Asia was mixed again and Europe higher in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday in the summer is what we got today as the Dow rose 76 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up. The overall market was stronger than the Dow again and led by the NASDAQ. That's a plus. I'm still looking at the SPY puts here as the S&P 500 remains short term overbought and a case can still be made for a negative RSI divergence on the daily chart. But with only 4 days left in the July option cycle the timing would have to be spot on. I'm not sure that I can accomplish that but I'm looking at it. The short term trades are usually not in my frame of mind but there are exceptions. Gold was off five bucks on the futures. The US dollar was flat along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on very light volume. They were up from the worst levels on the session. My open order for the GDX August calls remains out there. Here too I'm considering the GDX July calls with only 4 days to go. NEM reports earnings on Thursday so I'll have two more days to decide if I want to take the risk. The gold shares are short term overbought here though but I still think this is a move higher worth chasing. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today which doesn't fit with higher stock prices. Still short term oversold here. Plenty of earnings on tap this week so there will be excuses for the markets to move. Although I have a couple of trade ideas I'm not exactly sure what to do. Perhaps things will get clearer as the week progresses. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly lower to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A mixed bag to end a positive week for stocks as the Dow rose 113 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative though. The summation index continues up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow but it wasn't any kind of severe decline. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 showed losses on the session. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. I'm now looking at the SPY August puts as a potential next trade. Once again the S&P is getting far away from its 50 day moving average. Plus I can still make the case for the negative RSI divergence unless it begins to move higher. I'll consider it some more over the weekend. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar had a slight gain and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. I'm also now considering the GDX July calls next week even though it is short term overbought. I'm thinking that perhaps GDX can make it up to resistance at 33 1/2 by next Friday. The weekly chart here looks promising to the long side so the August calls are still part of the plan as well. Again, it's another set of ideas to ponder over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with an overall lower market. Almost completely short term oversold here. Not sure what's next for the VIX. Option expiration week on tap and I'm wondering if it will have the usual positive bias. We have yet to see the summer doldrums kick in for the market and if they do it won't benefit the options speculation. That much we can be sure of. We'll go over the charts as usual this weekend and try to come up with a game plan for next week. Asia was up and Europe generally lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Up, up and away we go as the Dow gained 47 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. Once again the overall market performed much better than the Dow as we have seen a broad based rally. Todays inflation data was tame and buyers took over from the start with a gap higher on the open. Now we are pretty short term overbought for the S&P 500 on the daily chart. That doesn't mean that we can't go higher but the pace of the rise will probably slow down. The NASDAQ is in the lead by a wide margin and that's bullish. The contracting Bollinger bands here imply this is a move that will go higher than you think. We'll enjoy the ride and see just how far it can go. Perhaps things will run up into option expiration next Friday. We are getting pretty far from the 50 week moving averages for some of the major stock indices and they are medium term overbought. But that doesn't seem to be a concern for now. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar continues to drop along with interest rates. The XAU gained 1 1/8, while GDX was up 1/3. Volume was lighter. The gold shares are short term overbought as well. I do have an open order out for the GDX August calls. My guess is that the gold shares will follow the stock market higher here. Keep in mind that we've already missed the ideal entry point for getting the calls here. We will try and get positioned on a pullback in the gold shares if we get one. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was actually up a touch today despite the overall rally for stocks. Not sure what that means. The short term indicators for the VIX are neither overbought or oversold. We are still keeping an eye on natural gas but will now be trading UNG since BOIL had a 20 to 1 reverse stock split. Europe and Asia were both up as it's a stock market party around the world. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Tame inflation data led to rally as the Dow gained 86 points on loght volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. Getting short term overbought on the S&P 500 and even with todays stellar gains there is still a potential negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart. Another up day tomorrow would negate that. The tight Bollinger bands on the NASDAQ seem to have it breaking out to the upside after todays price action. We are looking for the summer rally to continue. Gold took off higher as the futures gained $26. The US dollar got crushed and interest rates dropped. The XAU climbed 6 1/3, while GDX gained almost 1 2/3. Volume was heavy to the upside. The rally in the gold shares is for real. I placed a couple of orders for the July and August GDX calls in case there's a pullback. This is a move higher that can be chased in my opinion. Price and volume tell the story. The fact that the Japanese yen has started to rise cannot be overlooked as gold sometimes tracks this currency. The falling dollar is a plus for gold itself. Of course I'm a bit frustated having tried to trade the gold shares recently for losses and now not being on board for the move higher. But we will look to buy the GDX August calls on weakness as one of the technical indicator patterns that we look at says that this move up will have legs. We'll see. Mentally I'm trying not to lament about missing this move in GDX. Missed money is better than lost money as the saying goes. However not being able to purchase the GDX calls before this move up was a mistake. Had I not incurred the earlier losses there perhaps I would have had the mental capacity to do the right thing this time around. That is why we always say the mental capital is more important than any amounts of money involved. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators here have now rolled over. Not short term oversold yet on the VIX which implies that the rally has room to run. Producer inflation numbers out tomorrow. Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

No need to wait for the inflation data or so it seems as the Dow gained 317 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The consensus is for the comsumer price index to show a drop tomorrow so I suppose some are buying today in anticipation of that. Short covering is probably also a factor in todays rise. The short term indicators have turned back up for the S&P 500 with room to go higher. The NASDAQ is a laggard here so we'll have to see if that poses a problem going forward. We also have the tightening of the Bollinger bands going on with the over the counter stocks. So either we've just had a consolidation before a big price rise or the NASDAQ is going to roll over for a decent decline. I can't say that I'm bullish given the time of the year but markets go where they want. Tomorrow should give us an indication of what's about to happen. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar continued its fall and interest rates were steady. The XAU rose a point and GDX was up over 1/8. Volume was light. I placed orders overnight for both the July and August GDX calls. In the morning I canceled the GDX July call trade and left open the one for the GDX August calls. My guess is that the gold shares will be higher with the overall market tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators here are still mid-range. I would expect them to roll over tomorrow on market strength as well. On another note the prices for the SPY July call options were extremely overpriced compared with the puts. The market makers here are generally on top of things so when you see this type of activity it sometimes tips the markets hand about what is to occur. It is saying that we will be going higher in the near term and we'll see about that tomorrow. Asia and Europe were up as money is coming into stocks around the globe. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows inflation data.

Hanging around on a summer Monday as the Dow gained 209 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The Dow outperformed today and that isn't the most positive scenario. We are getting short term oversold on some of our indicators for the S&P 500 but most remain mid-range. Waiting on the inflation data due out Wednesday and Thursday with Wednesdays numbers being the key. We do have some negative RSI divergences on some of the major indice daily charts but no real break downs yet. That could change this week. But I'm also not seeing anything that says we can't just start to head higher from here as well. That's what mid-range indicators will do. You can make the case either way. I'm on the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY. Gold was off a buck on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 2 1/2, while GDX gained 5/8. Volume was slightly better than average. The gold shares up and gold not is a positive sign. I did place an order for the July GDX calls overnight but it wasn't filled. It looks like today was the day to try the calls here so I am going to have to decide tomorrow if I want to chase this move higher or not. It will be too late Wednesday if gold rallies off of the inflation data. But if the data comes in hot, the GDX calls most likely will not pan out. Technically the 200 day moving average held once again for GDX and that is a plus. Perhaps heading out to the August option cycle is the correct move here. Always plenty of questions without easy answers in the trading game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up slightly today which doesn't fit with a positive market. Still below the 50 day moving average here. The mid-range short term technical indicators here make trying to predict what happens next with the VIX a chore. The only thing that I can say with any clarity is that the market will be moving on Wednesday. Asia was mixed and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

It was a tale of two markets today as the 1st half of the day was up and the 2nd half down. The Dow fell 187 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive though. The summation index is moving sideways. Trying to determine which way things will go from here is the problem at the moment. The jobs numbers were in line with expectations. The overall market was not as weak as the Dow. The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 looks like it has a double top. The short term indicators here are pointing down. The Bollinger bands on he NASDAQ daily chart are starting to contract so something is brewing there. I'm still leaning towards the downside here but will look at things again over the weekend. Inflation data due out next week should be the next driver of market movement. Gold was up $16 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates wre steady. The XAU was up 1 3/8, while GDX gained over 1/3. Volume was light. GDX remains on the oversold side but not at extremes. I'm now looking at both the July and August calls there ahead of next weeks inflation data. Perhaps if we see weakness here early next week I'll try the GDX calls. However we'll have all weekend to try and figure out what to do here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished lower which doesn't fit with a down market. It did again close below the 50 day moving average. I'm not exactly sure where the VIX is headed. There's still 2 weeks to go in the July option cycle. So we have plenty of time to make a trade. Hopefully I'll have a clearer picture of what to do after going over the charts this weekend. Asia was lower and Europe generally higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers returned to Wall street as the Dow lost 366 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is starting to move sideways. We had seeling around the globe overnight. The negative RSI divergence for the S&P 500 went from potential to actual. I did place an overnight order for some SPY July puts but it wasn't filled and I canceled it. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over. However the market finished well off of the lows for the day so perhaps the worst has passed. We'll see how things go after the employment report tomorrow. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continued to climb. The XAU fell almost 3 points and GDX lost 3/4. Volume was good to the downside. I'm still considering the GDX August calls but I'm not completely sold on that idea as GDX is back below its 200 day moving average. I'll think about it overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and had a big spike early on as the contracting Bollinger bands suggested. Some of the short term indicators here are only mid-range which suggests perhaps more volatility in the works. Stock markets have become agitated now after the recent run up. Could the summer rally already be done? Stay tuned. Europe and Asia sold off again last night. We'll see how the week closes out tomorrow.

Just a bit lower today as the market seems on hold ahead of the employment report on Friday. The Dow fell 129 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues higher. The Dow was the underperformer today. The potential negative RSI divergence is still in place for the S&P 500. Perhaps if we see some upside in the S&P tomorrow we'll try the SPY July puts ahead of the jobs numbers. The S&P 500 is short term overbought. So the technical set up is in place if we want to try this idea. Option premiums here are still rather pricey though. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 3 1/3, while GDX slid 7/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over. Todays price action for GDX could be the snap back to the down trend line that it just penetrated. Or we could be heading back down to test the recent lows. Since we are looking for the stock market to take a break here, I'll probably wait before trying the GDX calls here again. I also am now looking at the August option cycle here. We'll consider the scenarios overnight and go from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and touched the upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators have turned up as well. Not sure what the VIX is implying here but I'm pretty sure we'll see an outsized move for this indicator soon based on the contracting Bollinger bands. I don't think that it will be going much lower here but I could be wrong. The VIX is also pretty far from its 50 week moving average. So we have plenty of reasons to try the SPY July puts if we want to. Asia and Europe were down overnight and the US followed suit. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Slight gains on a shortened trading session as the Dow was up 10 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Most traders are off until Wednesday and some for the rest of the week. The summar rally is in full swing but there is a potential negative RSI divergence brewing on the S&P daily chart. So far we have a light volume rally scenario that we were hoping for. It has taken us above the recent highs for the S&P 500. I suppose that if we are going to try the SPY July puts we should do so before the jobs report on Friday. We'll consider this for the next couple of days. Gold and the US dollar finished flat on the day. Interest rates had a slight rise. The XAU gained almost 2 points while GDX rose over 1/2. Volume was pretty good considering it was a half day session. GDX has now broken through the down trend line that began in May on the daily chart. The positive RSI divergence here did indeed turn out to be true. We will try the GDX July calls again on any weakness. The short term technical indicators for GDX are mid-range so there is plenty of room for them to go higher. However there is the chance that the gold shares just continue to move higher without a rest. The gold shares are outperforming gold itself and that's a plus. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was flat today as well. The tight Bollinger bands still imply that something is coming here. Asia was up and Europe slightly negative to begin the week. Enjoy the July 4th holiday tomorrow.