Another light volume, down day affair. The Dow lost 17 points on positive advance/declines. You can't make much of the action that happened this week. A lot of people were on vacation. The real game starts again on Monday. All the stocks I'm looking at had minor moves one way or the other. If anything, the options lost more time premium. I still think we will rally big at the beginning of the year. My hardest work will be where to exit the positions I currently own. I want to get out of the Intel trade as soon as possible. I almost bought some Microsoft calls today. My thinking is it will pop next week and money can be made. I didn't do it though. I already have a lot of cash out there in trades. This is a difficult game. I need to simplify it. Looking back over the last year, I really made some bonehead moves. I need to get better. I ended up with a gain of 22% on traded capital for the year. That just isn't good enough for the risks involved. Hopefully in the year ahead I will be able to control myself and make the right moves. It all comes down to patience and discipline. Until next year...
Thursday, December 30, 2004
We continue to drift through the week. The Dow was down around 30 points on positive advance/declines. Volume was light once again and the decline took place in the last 5 minutes. GE went nowhere as did Intel. MSFT lost around 15 cents making it a big mover. Pfizer was down around a quarter. Gold was up a couple bucks. The gold shares didn't do much. I didn't see what the dollar did. ABX was up better than most as its relative strength continues. Gold has lost some of its luster here though. I'll try and be patient. There will be a play there on the upside at some point. Tomorrow should be just as boring if not more so. New Years Eve and a bunch of the markets are closed. Should be a snoozer for equities. I've written my trading plan for next year, so I'm ready to go. That's it for now...
Wednesday, December 29, 2004
More light volume inaction today. The Dow was down 25 points on positive advance/declines. I bought some more January GE calls. Why? I guess I am a firm believer in this trade. We are right at the trendline. If it holds here than this will be a winner. I expect it to hold. I expect a pop for the beginning of the year, which I have stated again and again. I also put in an order for some Microsoft calls. It didn't get filled and I canceled it before the end of the day. Perhaps I am too bullish. Time will tell. Intel didn't do much today and my options didn't move. Gold got clobbered, down over $9. The gold shares did not follow and were only down slightly. Again the volume was light. Hard to figure this week. But with light volume you can't put much emphasis on what goes on. Next week will be the key. Pfizer continues to impress and was higher again today. Missed that one, I guess. And so we wallow around in the meantime. The next couple of days won't mean much.
Tuesday, December 28, 2004
The week trudges on. Light volume rally today with the Dow up 78 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. GE did not participate, up only a few cents. My partial fill option order was filled. I think I have enough now. I don't like it when a stock does not follow the market up. It is not a good sign. I could rationalize it away by saying it is a holiday week. But I need to keep an eye on it. The technicals look good as they are not overbought. I'm hanging on until the new year. Intel was down a few cents, the options are losing time value. This trade looks more and more like a mistake, as I said days ago. Still gonna wait but it's looking like a loser. Gold was down and so were the gold shares. No volume and not much interest. Pfizer keeps rallying back. Wish I would have foresaw that one. Well it's only Tuesday. Would like to get through the rest of the week without anymore damage to my positions and hope the new year goes as planned. Interesting game but difficult.
Monday, December 27, 2004
It's a holiday week and the volume was light. The Dow lost 50 points and the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. It's not a surprise as I am looking for some downside here. I don't think it will last long but it should carry over to tomorrow. My open order for GE calls was partially filled. I hate that. Either fill it or not because now it's in limbo. The rest of it should get filled tomorrow but as you know, there are no guarantees in this business. GE was down around 20 cents as was INTC. The Intel calls are in the red again. No volume though so I am not all that worried but I'm not pleased either. I should have just bailed out of this Intel trade a while ago. I really don't know much about the tech biz. I am going to wait for the rally I expect at the beginning of the year but it could be too late by then. Gold was up around 3 bucks but the XAU did not rally much. ABX and NEM were up slightly on light volume. Dollar hitting new lows. I don't know how much you can read into the trading this week with very thin markets. I am sticking to my scenario until proven otherwise. Rally at the beginning of January, taking advantage of it with GE calls. I'll get some OEX calls if we keep dropping this week. Pfizer was up again today. No plans there but ya never know. We'll see if the rest of that GE trade can get filled tomorrow. I also added another trade at a lower price for the same calls. We'll see...
Thursday, December 23, 2004
OK, the week is over. Dow up around 15 points on holiday light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Not much action. Fractional moves with no interest in everything I'm holding or looking at. Time for a nice long weekend. I'll be looking for weakness early next week and hopefully get some more calls if that happens. Merry Christmas.
Wednesday, December 22, 2004
The rally continues with the Dow up another 56 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were positive. Again GE did not follow suit and was down. This time INTC joined it. When your stocks can't go up when the market does, you are in trouble. I don't like it and I think this market will head down at the beginning of next week, if not tomorrow. The GE calls are profitable but they won't stay that way if this continues. The Intel calls are right where I bought them. Perhaps selling them is the wise move. But I am sticking to my guns and holding on until the beginning of the year. Pfizer was up almost a buck today and I sure wish I had the guts to play that one. Maybe if it drops before the new year. But I probably shouldn't. Gold shares were down today on light volume. Gold was down a couple bucks. Almost time for a nice 3-day holiday weekend. You gotta take a break once in a while or you'll go nuts. It will be good to get this year over with. I'll be looking for strong trading profits next year, if my prognosis proves true.
Tuesday, December 21, 2004
So much for the decline. The Dow was up about 100 points today on 2 to 1 advance/declines. The volume wasn't all that good but it is a holiday week. This could move the summation index to the upside but we are overbought slightly with todays action. GE did not move, was off a couple cents. So much for relative strength. I don't like it when a stock doesn't move up along with the overall market. It isn't the most positive sign. Intel got an upgrade and rose 75 cents. My calls are back to break even. Perhaps should sell out here. But I won't. I'd still like to wait for the beginning of next year and I probably will. Gold did not move but the XAU was up over a point with ABX and NEM higher. Volume not all that good. I'm keeping an eye on it but I really can't see a play there right now. Perhaps it will be a safety flight play before the Iraqi elections. Don't know. Pfizer rose a little today. I could do something here but the risk is very high in my opinion. It has sold off a lot but it may take a while to form a base. Then again it may not. When in doubt, stay out. I'm sticking with the positive 2005 theory, with prices moving higher than expected. 15% to 20% for the year with the bias towards 20% or more. I think January will be a good month, with solid gains in the beginning of the month. It's all just a guess but what isn't in this game? Things should slow down the next couple of days before the long weekend. Hopefully the posts will be shorter.
Monday, December 20, 2004
The Dow was up about 10 points today on OK volume for a Monday. Advance/declines were about even. We were a lot higher earlier though and could see some more weakness tomorrow. But I am not looking for a big decline or any huge market moves. It is a holiday week. Probably going sideways to nowhere. And that is going to kill my out of the money Intel calls. INTC was down 7 cents today but the calls lost value and are now in the red. So I am stuck holding these things until the New Year bounce I am anticipating. The only good thing is that there is an extra week on the January options and that might bail me out. But I should have dumped them last week when my order didn't get filled. I could have lowered the limit price and been done with it. We are still stuck on the 50 day moving average there. Gold didn't move much. The gold shares gained a little after being up earlier in the day. Volume was light as there is no interest there anymore. GE was up around 30 cents and continues to be a good play. The relative strength is high. I still have an open order for some more January calls and the calls I own are in the black. Pfizer was down around a buck fifty but I am steering clear of this for now. But it might be playable soon. But who knows? Summation index still pointing down. Would like to just get through this week without any major damage and then take it from there.
Friday, December 17, 2004
Volume the story today as it is super heavy with the expiration and news from Pfizer. The Dow was down 55 points with advance/declines about even. Pfizer announced one of its main drugs causes heart attacks. They didn't say it like that but that's the jist of it. PFE got killed on massive volume. And I was looking to get calls. That goes to show you just how fickle this game can be. And dangerous. Overnight developments can ruin any position you have at any time. You've got to know this in the game. GE was down today and I am looking to get some more January calls. I'm still a believer in a nice pop at the beginning of 2005. The summation index has turned down and I did expect some weakness so I'm trying to take advantage of it. But of course, I could be wrong. Intel was down also and is right on its 50 day moving average. If it holds, my calls might make it. If not, they're losers. Gold was up a few bucks today as the dollar was weaker. The gold shares didn't move and the volume was light. There is no interest there for now but sometime next year they will perk up again and I hope I'm there to profit from it. So it looks like I'm pinning my hopes on GE and that's not a bad thing. Uptrend line is at $36 and if it holds I should be OK. If not? You know the story. Holiday shortened week coming up. I don't expect a lot of action. It will be a time to try and position for the beginning of next year. But the markets will be quiet. Sideways action could be the norm. As long as we don't tank, I think things will work out.
Thursday, December 16, 2004
A mixed day today with the Dow up and the SPX down. The NASDAQ was down also. Dow up around 15 points. Volume was expiration heavy and the advance/declines were negative about 2 to 1. This will probably turn the summation index back down. I'm still looking for near term weakness. GE was down around 30 cents. Holding my options here. Intel was down and I had an order to sell my calls but it wasn't filled. Needs to hold the 50 day moving average line again or it's a loser. Don't know but I wish I wasn't holding any. Sox index is breaking an uptrend line. We'll see but I don't like it now. Gold was down as was the XAU, NEM and ABX. The dollar was stronger. Will look for calls on the gold shares when the dollar index gets to 85. Could be a while. Support for NEM at $42 and might go long there. Pfizer continued to rally and I think that I missed that one and probably will forget about it. Not really looking for anything else at the moment. I'm still a believer that next year will be good and that January should see higher prices including 11000 on the Dow. I will be looking to get long on the weakness I expect in the next few days. The trouble is with the holidays approaching there will not be much interest in the markets. That could skew things and make it harder to get orders filled. Perhaps stepping aside would be the prudent thing to do. However I will be looking for opportunity as I believe other players will be too.
Wednesday, December 15, 2004
This blog site is getting slower every day. The Dow was up 15 points on pretty good volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. The summation Index is turning back to the upside. We are overbought here though. I'm looking for some downside but hopefully not alot. GE went nowhere today. Intel was down a few cents and I'm worried about this trade. I'm thinking of just getting out while I can without a loss. However the technicals are oversold and I'm thinking it will bounce here before too long. Don't know. Gold was up around $4 but the XAU did not even gain a point. ABX and NEM were higher but on light volume. I'm on the sidelines there. Pfizer rallied to the 50 day moving average line, up a dollar. Looks like I may have missed out on this one. The tax selling I was anticipating may not come to pass. I'll keep an eye on it but it isn't looking good after today. The dollar was weaker but it isn't a headline factor for now. I'm looking for it to rise to the breakout point and then I will get long gold. I'm looking for some type of pullback in the overall market here. Then purchase some more calls on the OEX and selected issues. The game is hard and played for real by others with more savvy than me. This is known. However my skills are on the improve. I am learning more about myself. I am a successful trader for the year and not all can claim that. I will have an even better year in 2005 if I continue to pay attention. The game is interesting, time consuming and involves a lot of hard work. Not all are up to the challenge. But I am and will continue to be. I enjoy the game...
Tuesday, December 14, 2004
Gotta blog early again, need to get a haircut. About 5 minutes to go on another up day. Dow up around 30 on positive advance/declines. Volume looks average here. Fed raised rates another quarter point, which was expected. GE gave some in-line guidance, the stock is down a bit on heavy volume. Should go sideways for a while here. Gold was down over $3 but the gold shares are not moving down that much. Intel is up over 50 cents today and the calls I own are back in the black. I'm thinking of selling but will wait for tomorrow at the least. Pfizer is up, January calls are still too expensive for me. That's it for today.
Monday, December 13, 2004
The market is up 85 points with an hour to go. I am posting early due to playing 9 holes of golf after the market closes. Advance/declines are solidly positive right now but the volume seems lighter than usual. Gold was up $5 today but the gold stocks aren't doing much right now, XAU up around a point and a half. I think a longer bottom needs to be in place here. GE is still rallying, up another 75 cents at the moment. The calls are looking good. INTC isn't moving and the options are losing some time premium. Looks like a loser but it does have some time left. Pfizer announced a dividend hike, it's up a little. Waiting on the January calls there. Fed tomorrow and I think we will see some downside at some point this week due to a now overbought condition coming upon us. Summation index trying to turn but it would be better for January if it kept going down. We'll see how we close...
Friday, December 10, 2004
The market didn't do much today with the Dow down around 10 points. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was lighter than lately. One week before option expiration. Then we've got the holidays. Could be a slow time. Probably want to stay on the sidelines unless something good presents itself. Intel was down today and I am worried about this trade. We are right at the 50 day moving average and it has to hold here. If it moves up I think I'll dump them. The weekly chart doesn't look good unless next week is higher by a point. GE announced a dividend increase and stock buyback today. It was higher on heavy volume, a good sign. My options continued higher. Gold was down around a dollar today. ABX and NEM were both down on light volume as the interest in the gold shares wanes for now. I'm keeping an eye on it but like I said before, it will take time for a base to build here most likely. Pfizer was down again and I am looking for the January calls here. I will most likely get some before the end of the year. Tax selling as I have said. I think this will be a good trade if the entry is done right. Well, we should slow down after next week. The Fed is doing something Tuesday. Probably another quarter point rate hike and we'll see how the market reacts to that. I'm sticking to my year ending in 5 theory. Summation index is still dropping which will hopefully set up for the rise in the beginning of next year. If we can stay in a sideways range, I believe my prognosis will prove correct. But in this game you never know...
Thursday, December 09, 2004
An interesting day as the Dow sold off early and then came all the way back to close up around 55 points. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume again was good. I'm not sure what to make of it. I'm not convinced that it is for real. The Bollinger bands on the daily OEX chart are very tight, which implies a big move one way or the other. The summation index is still pointing down. Tricky call. Gold was down another buck and a half today. However the XAU, NEM and ABX were all up. Not a lot mind you and the volume wasn't as good as it has been recently. I'm going to let a bottom build there. GE was up around 30 cents. Those calls are still looking good. I got filled on the Intel calls this morning. This too came all the way back but then sold off again. It has to hold right here or the uptrend line will be broken and it will be a loser. Volume was heavy so perhaps the sellers have sold out here but that is just a guess. And a hope. Pfizer was down, no trades there. I read something last night that said that money management was the most important part of trading. It is important but I feel it is not the most important. Let me ask you, if you lose all of your trades, what difference will good money management make? Successful trading requires more skills than just good money management. The trades themselves are the most important. If you can't figure out how to trade it doesn't matter how much money you have because you will lose it all. Someone with a small amount of money that knows how to trade will fare better than someone with a lot of money that doesn't. There is no most important part of trading. It's all important...
Wednesday, December 08, 2004
We got some bounceback today, with the Dow up over 50 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was good. I think we will be going sideways here for a while, before the next leg up. That's my hope. Gold got killed today, down $15. What a move. It has been telegraphed by the weakness in the gold stocks. Today the XAU sold off big early but came back pretty good as did ABX and NEM. The XAU was only down around a point and a half. I'd like to let a bottom build here and then get long. But I might get some December calls for a bounce. Not sure. GE was up today and INTC was down. I have an order in now for some January Intel calls. Trying to buy them back. It is getting near the uptrend line. If it holds then the bullish case is still in play. If not, I'll cancel the order. Sounds good in theory, as it always does. Pfizer was up today, I'm watching it but no trades are imminent. Less than 2 weeks until expiration Friday. My best guess would be to stay on the sidelines and add to January call positions. That's the plan and I'll try and stick to it. Expecting sideways and weakness action for the next week. Summation Index still pointing down.
Tuesday, December 07, 2004
The market got clobbered today, with the Dow down 105. Volume was good and the advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. A decline was expected here, now we just have to see how deep it is. My guess is we won't go down that much. But what do I know? My March GE calls finally got filled. It took all session as they were partially filled for most of the day. That usually means the market makers did not want to give them up. I am going to put in an order for some more at a lower price. GE was down today. I sold the Intel calls for a 70% profit. Perhaps could have held them but I took the money and hope to get them back. The open interest expanded from the time I bought these. That is supposed to be bullish but my studies on this factor are inconclusive. I will repurchase some calls when Intel gets to the uptrendline, perhaps later this week. Gold was down a couple bucks and the XAU continued lower. ABX and NEM were down. The dollar was weak so we have some disconnect here. I don't know what to make of it but I'm staying away as some trend lines have been violated. Too bad I didn't get some puts when I saw the gold price, gold share divergence. It's always easy to look back. Pfizer didn't do much today and that could be a positive when we were down so much. I'll keep an eye on it. The Summation Index has rolled over to the downside so I would expect more weakness but not a lot. I'm still sticking with the theory of a good year for 2005. This could be the opportunity to get your calls for early next year. We'll see...
Monday, December 06, 2004
Today the Dow was down 45 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. There were some downgrades of a few Dow stocks. GE was down a little. I still have the open order for March calls. However this weekend I checked the monthly charts and it looks like there is a lot of resistance here. I'll try and be patient. I'm still looking for some type of decline in the market here, we are still overbought. Gold was down a couple bucks. The XAU was off over a point. NEM and ABX were both down. The XAU is oversold on a daily basis but not on a weekly basis. I'll keep an eye on it but I'm not really looking at a trade here. The dollar was a little stronger. Pfizer sold off again today. I'm looking for January calls. I've seen them double and now come back to where they doubled from. I am going to wait until near the end of this month if I do anything here at all. I've still got the Intel calls. Debating on whether to put in a stop loss order or not. Probably should and then maybe buy them back cheaper later on. It does look like a breakout on the weeklies though. It is never easy. Now for some words on trading and life. It takes a lot of sacrifice and discipline to be a successful trader. Usually those around you, family and friends, do not understand the commitment necessary for that success. Sometimes you have to make decisions regarding your time that will be unpopular. But you must. You cannot expect people to understand or even have the faintest clue as to why you do what you do. If you are fortunate enough to have some other traders around, they perhaps can understand the time issue. But for the most part, trading is a solitary endeavor. It involves a lot of work that must be kept up to date or you will fall to the wayside. Again, you are going up against some of the brightest minds and biggest monetary forces in the world. It ain't easy. For success to become reality you have got to pay attention and put the time in. There are no shortcuts to profitability. Others usually do not understand this. Others go to their 9 to 5 jobs and only see things in those terms. On the otherhand you, as a trader, have taken on a higher calling. You are taking on the most intense challenge in business in my opinion. You're part of the biggest game in the world. Don't expect others to comprehend the enormity of what you are trying to do. Some of your time decisions will be unpopular. So be it. You can make up for it at a later date. Sometimes you've just got to keep you nose to the grindstone and forge ahead. The rewards for success are well worth it.
Friday, December 03, 2004
The market moved around and went nowhere today. The Dow was up 7 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The employment report was weaker than expected. I'm looking for weakness near term for the market. We are overbought again. Bond yields went down and so did the dollar. Gold was up about five bucks but the XAU did not follow. The XAU was up around a half, with both ABX and NEM up slightly on light volume. I'd like to get some gold calls but not yet. GE was down a little today. I still have the open order for March calls. Perhaps it will get filled next week. Intel was up strong on heavy volume. The options I have lost a third of their value from the high first thing this morning. Intel lost around 60 cents from the open. The calls are still in the black and perhaps a stop-loss order would be prudent this time for a change. Maybe I could buy them back later. However the original plan was to hold them until January. I'll mull it over this weekend. Pfizer was down today. Perhaps the tax loss selling has begun. There might be some tax loss selling in Intel also. I'm not sure. I'm still believing that next year will be a good one for stocks and will try to position myself for that this month. 2 weeks left in the option cycle. Barring some stupid moves by me or a market collapse, this will be a profitable trading year for me. Even with all the stupid moves and mistakes by yours truly. Will wonders never cease???
Thursday, December 02, 2004
The market didn't do much today after yesterdays big rally. The Dow was down 5 points on heavy volume again. Advance/declines were negative. It usually isn't a good sign when the market goes nowhere on heavy volume. The employment report is out tomorrow and that will be the key for Friday. My instinct says the market is overbought and will sell off. But what do I know? Not much. Intel was down today ahead of its report after the close. The calls I own lost whatever profit they had and are break-even. The news looks positive after-market though. Still have a conference call to muddle through. GE was down but those March calls I'd like to get didn't move. The January calls are still in the black. Hopefully I'll be able to get those March 37.5's. Gold was down around 4 or 5 bucks today and the XAU got slammed again. It was off about 3 and 1/2 points. ABX and NEM were down on heavy volume. Could be the start of the unwinding of the long gold trade. Oil was routed again off over another $2. The dollar was up a little but anytime it doesn't go down is viewed as a positive. Bonds still in decline. Pfizer has done nothing but go up lately. I still am looking for the tax loss selling at some point this month for that issue. Might get some calls then. Like I said before, I would not be surprised if we got some sort of sell-off in the market tomorrow. But it looks like Intel is rallying pretty good in the after-market. Who knows?
Wednesday, December 01, 2004
Powerful move up today in the markets. The Dow climbed over 160 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. GE and INTC were both higher on good volume. I am now regretting adjusting the price on the GE March calls that I wanted. They would have been filled if I just left the ticket alone. But I went for a better price and it didn't happen. Perhaps GE will drop in the coming days and I will get another chance. But with todays action that isn't likely. The Intel calls are showing a profit and there is some kind of announcement from the company tomorrow. No matter. The longer term play is in GE and perhaps I should have just kept the focus on that. Gold was up a few bucks today but again, the gold stocks went nowhere. ABX was up a little, NEM down a little and the XAU basically unchanged. ABX has shown incredible relative strength here. The dollar was down again. Oil got killed today, down over $3. Probably helped the Dow rally. But interest rates are starting to rise. Sooner or later, that will affect the markets. For now though, it's still up and away. Employment report on Friday and we'll see what happens there.
Tuesday, November 30, 2004
I bought some Intel calls today. What? Yeah, I was checking out some charts last night and it looked like this issue was forming a cup and handle formation, which is bullish. I placed an order overnight. Intel went down a lot today and the order was filled. But the amount it went down kind of negates the pattern. Oh well. It is oversold so we'll see what happens. The Dow lost 47 points on increasing volume. Advance/declines were negative. We closed on the low and unless we rally from the start tomorrow it's trouble. GE was up slightly. I still have an open order for March calls. GE is also short term oversold. Gold was down a few bucks today and the gold stocks got slammed. The XAU was down over 3 points, with NEM down over a buck and a half. ABX was down also. The volume was heavy on the gold stocks. The Summation Index could be beginning to roll over here and that would be a negative. It could set up for a good January but that remains to be seen. My hope is for more sideways action into the middle of the month. I'm still a believer in the year ending in 5 theory and will be purchasing calls accordingly. Perhaps a wait and see attitude would be prudent here. Pfizer was up again today on an analyst meeting. I expect it to pull back though with tax selling. I could be wrong. It's happened before...
Monday, November 29, 2004
Opened higher, sold off 100 points, came all the way back and then closed down 46. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. GDP report out tomorrow. Don't exactly know where we go from here. Sideways will work for a while but a breakdown would be negative. GE was down again today. Not much though. I adjusted lower the order I have in for the March calls. January calls still in the black. Gold was up almost $5 today as the dollar was a little lower. The gold stocks did not follow again as the XAU was only up fractionally. ABX and NEM moved slightly. I can't see this as a positive for gold but it does keep rising. I'm on the sidelines there. Pfizer was up about a half today. Waiting on that one. A lot of talk on the dollar still. Time for that trend to take a rest I believe, with all the recent publicity. We'll see. Employment report on Friday and we could just wait around for that. End of month tomorrow, perhaps skewing things a bit. But that, like everything else, is just a guess. I'm sticking with the GE plan. It's short term oversold and I believe it, along with the market, will rally in January. Got a month to got though. Would actually like to short ABX here if I had the guts. It is going against the primary trend though and perhaps a better strategy would be to wait to get long. When in doubt, stay out and that's what I'm doing. Until tomorrow...
Friday, November 26, 2004
Holiday light trading. I don't even know why they bother to open for a shortened session. Volume super light, Dow up 2 points, advance/declines positive. GE was down, the March calls weren't filled. The gold stocks rallied pretty good on light volume as the dollar was down again. I even had an order in for some NEM calls but of course it wasn't filled. Gold was up a couple bucks. It seems everyone is focusing on the dollar now. If it stops going down I think that will be the catalyst for the next market upmove. It could be the excuse used for the next leg up. If there is one of course. I'll be enjoying the weekend and will be back on Monday.
Wednesday, November 24, 2004
Holiday light volume as the Dow closes up close to 30 points. Advance/declines almost 3 to 1 positive. Typical pre-holiday fare. GE was down a little on an acquisition. I still have an open order for March calls there. Gold was up over a buck but the XAU was down a half. ABX and NEM were also down and the volume was good for a day like today. The dollar was weaker. Don't know what to make of the recent gold stock action. It certainly isn't following the metal. I'll wait it out on the sidelines for now. Pfizer continues to fall. Patience required there also. Off tomorrow and a shortened session for Friday. Looks like the start of a nice long weekend. Plenty of time to check the charts but better still a chance to take a break from the game. Recharge and regroup. Plan the next move but really just relax for a few days. Like anything else if you overdo it you'll burn out. And you're going to burn out enough just from the trading itself. So you try not to make it any harder on yourself than it's going to be.
Tuesday, November 23, 2004
The Dow sold off for most of the day but came back to be up 3 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. I expect another light volume day tomorrow. GE was down and I placed a GTC order for some March calls. Volume was pretty good to the downside there. We'll see what happens. Gold was off a buck but the XAU dropped 2 and 1/2. ABX and NEM were also down on good volume. The dollar was down also. I'm thinking the dollar has got to stabilize somewhere in here. Hasn't happened yet. Gold did break out with the XAU not breaking out. That usually isn't the case for higher prices. But time will tell. If the gold stocks get oversold, I'm going to buy some calls. Gold is around $448 and I'd like to see it get to $430. I think it too is due for a rest in December. Time will tell. I'm still bullish on the overall market and will be looking to play it that way. OEX calls could be in the picture. Consolidation for now and get some bearish talk going so we can continue to the upside. It's all a guess but what isn't in this game?
Monday, November 22, 2004
We have entered the Thanksgiving holiday week. Usually the market goes up. The Dow was up today over 30 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. I'm guessing we will consolidate here for a while, but who knows? GE was down a little today. I still want to get those March calls but they just don't seem to come down much in price. The January calls I own are still showing a profit and are in the money by a point. Gold was up again today almost at $450. ABX continues to soar, up almost 50 cents on heavy volume again. I don't know what is going on with that stock because the XAU was only up a tad and hasn't broken out like ABX has. Needless to say I wish I had some calls there. NEM also has yet to break out. The dollar was a little weaker and has gotten a lot of press lately. It seems to me everybody in the game knows about its weakness at this point and I think some type of pause is due. But I said that a couple points ago too. The technicals there are blown out to the downside. I'm going to try and be patient for the gold but really think a correction is due. Timing is everything in the game, that must not be forgotten. Controlling risk is another key element to success. However taking risks is the way to huge profits and I feel that soon I will be taking some. I am still a believer in the year ending in 5 theory. I think this market will take off to the upside at the beginning of the year. I will be setting up the January trades with this in mind. Pfizer is falling off the radar screen for me here. It was down again today and I'm not sure I will trade this issue afterall. Unless it forms a decent bottom in December with the tax selling that I anticipate, I will pass. It's possible I will concentrate my activity in GE and go from there. At this point that's how I'm leaning. But I'll let the market action dictate what I'll do, hopefully. I'm going to try and sit tight this week. Perhaps let December roll around and prepare for January. It's hard to say. I also am looking at some OEX calls for next year. The ideal scenario would be for a consolidation here and up and away from that. We'll see.
Friday, November 19, 2004
Finally a down day as the Dow was off 115 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Excuses included Greenspan, the dollar, oil and option expiration. We've been overbought for a while so a decline was expected, really. I don't think it is the start of a long downtrend. GE sold off around 60 cents. Not enough to get those March calls yet. Gold was up over $4 and seems like it will never come down. The XAU was up almost a point and a half. ABX continued to soar up another 75 cents on very heavy volume. How long will it go on? A new gold ETF was launched yesterday and I'm thinking that is some of the reason for the rise. NEM was only up 50 cents and hasn't broken out like ABX. Neither has the XAU as it is at its previous high around 110 and hasn't gotten above it yet. The dollar sunk on Greenspans comments. There is a G-20 meeting over the weekend and the market will wait to see what comes out of that before trading again on monday. Holiday week next week also. I'll still be looking to get some March GE calls and perhaps some January ABX calls. Oil was up over 2 dollars but I think it's just a snapback, not the beginning of a new up trend. I also believe that a pullback towards the breakout that we just had in the indices is in the process now with todays action. It will give you another chance to get some calls. Pfizer was down again today and is looking weaker than I thought. Holding off until the December tax selling is over for that one. Perhaps will stay away for good on that idea also. The weekend has arrived and maybe I will return here before monday.
Thursday, November 18, 2004
Dow up over 20 points with advance/declines about even. Volume was moderate. GE continues to be way overbought and up another 40 cents today. It needs a pullback. Gold was off 3 bucks or so today with the XAU down a couple points. NEM was down around a dollar and ABX was around unchanged. The relative strength of ABX is amazing and should be played to the upside on a pullback. Trouble is a pullback just hasn't happened. I've somehow got to be patient or else I could get burned. Pfizer was higher early on but then closed down for the day. Options expire tomorrow, that could skew things. Holiday week next week so some time premium should erode. I would not expect a lot of volume either. So maybe it is time to just sit tight for a couple weeks and plan the next trade. I'm looking for the March GE calls and now the January ABX calls. No plans for a December trade now but that will probably change. Dollar was a little stronger today. Not much else to say here...
Wednesday, November 17, 2004
It was an up day in the market today. The Dow gained over 60 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We were up twice as much at one point. Consumer inflation was higher than expected but it didn't seem to matter. That's the way it goes when the advance is strong. The news doesn't matter, it just keeps going up. Gold is the same way for now. It was up almost $5 today. The dollar continues to drop. The XAU was up over a point and a half. ABX was very strong on heavy volume. NEM was up but not as much as it could have been. The money continues to pour into ABX and I am kicking myself for not taking advantage of this situation. I don't know what is worse. Losing money or missing opportunities. I'm hoping today was a blow-off for ABX and that I'll be able to pick up some calls in the coming weeks. Way overbought and staying there, much like the overall stock market. GE was up a little today, at one point up a lot. Time for a rest there I presume and maybe a chance to get those March calls. Pfizer rallied today but I do want to wait there. It is frustrating not to participate in the gold advance. Especially when you lose money going the wrong way and you know the trend is up. But that's what happens when you suck as a trader. Controlling oneself is the key to profits. It can be done, you've just got to be good enough to do it. If not you lose money and eventually will be out of the game. The major trends are there to be taken advantage of. Try to remember that going forward...
Tuesday, November 16, 2004
Dow down over 60 points today as we finally take a rest. Advance/declines almost 2 to 1 negative, with volume a little lighter. Producer prices came out higher than expected. No trades on the OEX for now. Gold was up over $3 and the XAU up a point and a half. ABX and NEM were both higher but not by much and volume was light. No trades pending there either. GE was down 5 cents and continues to remain strong. Need some downside to enter the March call trade. Patience will be required. The January calls remain a winner and I will ride them until the beginning of the year. Pfizer was down a little and I will be waiting around for that trade also. So it looks like I could be in a dormant period here for a while, simply waiting for market conditions to come around in my favor. Or perhaps I am wrong and should step up and buy things now. Always lots of questions in the game with no clear answers. perhaps some short term puts on the OEX could be profitable here. Not sure and will most likely sit it out after the recent lousy trades in gold.
Monday, November 15, 2004
A treading water kind of day with the Dow up 11 points. Volume was monday light and the advance/declines were positive. Got to figure a pullback is near. Option expiration week so anything can happen. I have some ideas but no solid plays. Gold was off a buck and the XAU down 1 1/2. Both ABX and NEM were down. I'm still thinking the divergences are there for a drop but we all know how poorly I've traded gold lately. GE was down a little but not enough to get some calls for this week. I'm still holding the Januarys and looking to go March. Pfizer was up today but no play there yet. Looks like I could be on the sidelines all week. Hope not. Next week is a holiday week. So I'll be just hanging around for that week most likely. I see the dollar was up a little today and perhaps a short covering rally is due. Don't know though. Not much else to say here except the patience and discipline mantra. I'm still learning...
Friday, November 12, 2004
15 minutes to go. I am an idiot. Sold the ABX puts for a 60% loss. Is this a rerun of the last losing trade? Yes. What happened? First of all the timing on the entries was right on. However the macro trend is up on this stock and the gold market. I was going against the flow of money. Stupid. Each time the options doubled. Each time I thought it was the start of a bigger move but these were just down blips in an ongoing uptrend. There's one of the reasons they went wrong. In hindsight, stop-loss orders should have been placed for overnight each time. But I didn't do that. Because I'm a lousy trader. It's true. A legit trader would have protected himself against adverse overnight moves. For some reason I never get this right until it's too late. I look back and say, yeah that's what I should have done. Because it's really all about reducing risk. Although the game involves risk, you don't have to add to it by doing dumb things. The trend here is up for the gold stocks. No sense in buying puts. It's a miracle that they even showed a profit at some point. Now I must learn something from these mistakes or I am doomed. Each trade is different, but these 2 were so much alike it is scary. Fortunately there was not much money involved. But it's still a dumbass loss to take. And who knows, maybe hanging on until next week would have proved worthy. But I bailed out and now my confidence is shot and it will be hard to go on from here. I'm still way in the black for the year and I'm thinking of just hanging it up for 2004. I say that today, Friday but Monday will be a different story. The Dow continues to plow upward, 60 more points today with 5 minutes left. Advance/declines are 2 to 1 positive and the volume is good. GE is up again and I am looking to get some more long term calls on a pullback. Looking for March now. The January calls are still looking good. Stop-loss order in there? No. Way too much time on these. Another point about the recent loss was the commission. It was higher due to more contracts purchased. It seems that perhaps the optimum number to trade is 20 at a time. Of course when the trade is going good, you want as many contracts as possible. But reality says half the trades are going to be losers, so commission costs must be watched. I'll try to regroup over the weekend...
Thursday, November 11, 2004
It's still up, up and away for the market. Dow up another 85 points today on 3 to 1 advance/declines. Volume was a little lighter though. We've got to see this thing take a rest. No big decline but something to the downside. GE was up again and the November call trade doesn't look like it's going to happen. I'm thinking of going out to March now. The January calls have tripled. I'm holding and hoping. Gold was up a little today as was ABX and NEM. The volume was light here and I am looking for more downside. My options are only up 50% now and an up day tomorrow will kill them. However the stochastic has rolled over, the negative divergences with RSI remain and I am somewhat confident that lower prices are in the offing. But who knows? The dollar was down a bit today and the steep drop has taken a rest for now. That doesn't mean it won't resume tomorrow. Trading is a difficult game as I have stated many times. There are very few easy trades. The money is out there to be made though, if you're good enough. I suppose I'll be hoping gold gets weak before the weekend. Like I said, the technicals support holding on for more downside here. I'm still checking out Pfizer but it hasn't gotten oversold completely yet. Don't know if I'll do this trade but I'll keep an eye on it. Option expiration is next friday. Will try something if conditions merit.
Wednesday, November 10, 2004
Up and down, mostly up and then flat at the close. That was the story of the Dow today. Advance/declines were positive, volume was average. The Fed raised rates the expected 1/4 of a point. And ho-hum was the day. GE was flat. I'm still looking to get some November calls there but not yet. Gold was off a couple bucks. The XAU was down a little less than a point. The dollar was up slightly. NEM was down and so was ABX, both on expanding volume. Hmmm, could the divergences be for real? The ABX puts I bought yesterday have doubled. Did I sell them? Of course not. Not that I'm greedy but if the divergence there is real, then ABX should drop some more. How far? If I knew that... The uptrend line is a point away. I probably won't wait that long but who knows. Perhaps a stop-loss order will be called for this time. It couldn't hurt. PFE was down again today. I really need to wait for December on that one. I'll try but you just can't tell in this crazy game. Patience and discipline. They are just 2 of the keys to unlock the door to successful trading. Tomorrow is a semi-holiday. The stock market will be open but I think the bond market is closed. Until then...
Tuesday, November 09, 2004
Market marking time. Dow off around 5 points on lower than lately volume. Advance/declines were positive. I still feel a pullback of some sort is necessary. GE was up around 30 cents today. No chance for a November trade here yet. Might not happen at this rate. Gold was up 2 1/2 bucks. The XAU was down a bit and ABX and NEM were up a bit. I bought some ABX puts again. Not a lot of money in this trade. There are some divergences. I don't know if this will work but should know by tomorrow with the trade numbers coming out. It's gotta be a short term thing. If ABX is up tomorrow, I am out with a small loss. I think it has a chance to be correct but who knows. The trend looks to be up and it is. But the volume is shrinking and a rest perhaps is in order. Maybe I should have just stuck to GE. Hindsight will tell. But I am giving it a shot, will not dwell on the consequences and we'll see what happens. Pfizer was down again today and patience will be needed there. Not much else to say here...
Monday, November 08, 2004
The markets traded flat today with the Dow up 3 points on lighter than usual volume lately. Advance/declines were solidly negative though. We are overdue for a pause. The Fed meeting is this week with the announcement on Wednesday I believe. The trade number will out that day also. A lot of chatter about the dollar here. It was up a touch today. It has been dropping for so long it is interesting that only now it is getting some notice. Must be near a bottom then. Gold was off under a buck today, with the XAU and NEM down a little. ABX continues to rise though. I wish I had the guts to get some puts on that now. I'm on the sidelines there for now. GE went nowhere today. I plan on buying some November calls when we get a pullback this week. That is the gameplan for this week. Patience and discipline will be required. Wish me luck. Pfizer was down around 40 cents today. I'd like to get some calls there but am now thinking of waiting to purchase them in December after some expected tax selling. It's a longer term deal like the GE January calls that I own. They are still showing a profit and I doubt they will get back to the price I paid for them. At least I hope not. Anyway perhaps we will get the decline I expect here. Nothing serious I think, because those that missed the recent rise will be looking to get on board. I'll still be watching gold and ABX looks like the leader in this group. Not any other ideas here...
Saturday, November 06, 2004
Ahhh, stupid trades and bad trades. Reflections of a loser. Actually not all trades are going to work, of course. It is inevitable in the game. However you don't have to help things along by being dumb and not listening to what the market is saying. How can you avoid the brain cramps? I sure wish I had an answer for that. But I don't. At this point it's more of a where do you go from here question. You've got to move on and not dwell on the mistakes. Learn what you can from them. But don't let them get in the way of being a successful trader. Try not to be too hard on yourself. I admit, it's a problem for me. The winning trades kind of take care of themselves. But the losers seem to stick with me for a while. I suppose I don't like being wrong or losing. Nobody does. But you have got to get on with it. There is no use in beating yourself up over bad trades. You need all your energy for the markets and to play the game. You've got to try to keep the losses small and take profits when you've got them. Especially when you make a stupid trade to begin with. It's easy to look back and say these things. It's a lot harder in the heat of the moment. But try you must and try again. It's the nature of the game...
Friday, November 05, 2004
Market continues higher with the Dow up over 70 points. This is about as overbought as I have ever seen it. Volume heavy again but advance/declines were slightly negative. It has got to take a rest. GE up a little. The employment number came in with much more jobs created than expected. But the dollar could not rally and gold went higher by $4. The XAU, NEM and ABX were all higher on good volume. I bailed out of the ABX puts for a 50% loss. What an idiot. From a 100% gain to a 50% loss all in the same week! This was a dumb trade from the start. I had a chance to just get out even when I knew it was a stupid trade, yet I stayed in for a loss. I could have put in a stop-loss order and I didn't. My idea was that gold was going higher, it did and I lost money because? Because the battle versus myself is the hardest one to conquer. Even when the technicals signaled higher prices to come, I still couldn't sell the puts. Foolish. I will never survive with trades like that. The money involved was thankfully minimal. But the trading tactics or lack there of is what is killing me. It does nothing for your confidence when you can't get it right. Just how could you do such a dumb thing? If I had the answer then maybe I could correct it. Sometimes you just screw up. Gotta somehow forget about it and move on with 2 weeks before expiration. There will be opportunities and there will be no time to feel sorry for myself. I canceled the open order in Pfizer but will be keeping an eye on it. I'll try to be back here over the weekend...
Thursday, November 04, 2004
The market is on a tear. I mean just an incredible breakout rally. Dow up over 175 points. Heavy volume and 3 to 1 advance/declines again. My thoughts are that there will be no stopping it. The GE calls I own have more than doubled. And they're for January. I suppose I should have been paying more attention but I don't know. Sometimes you're just in a fog I guess. Of course I wish I had some more of those calls but at least I have some. Gold was up around 5 bucks today. The ABX puts I own are now break-even. ABX and NEM were both up on good volume but the action wasn't all it should be in my opinion. The XAU was up 2 1/2 points also. Gold could break out here also. I most likely should have sold the puts when I had a chance. The dollar was down a little today. Tomorrows employment report will be the key for this ABX trade. If the dollar rallies, gold should fall and the puts will be worth something. It's a guess as to what will happen. Pfizer went down big today on some false rumor. I put in an order for the December calls again. I'll try it again for a few days. Anything in the Dow will probably work at this point. Hindsight is everything. One thing about rallies like this. You can throw the technicals out the window. I have been waiting for some type of pullback since we are overbought and it is just not going to happen. You gotta just jump on board. At any rate, we'll see what the dollar and gold do tomorrow and take it from there.
Wednesday, November 03, 2004
Bush wins and a rally ensues. Dow up 100 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines 3 to 1 positive. Way overbought here. But it can stay that way for a while I suppose. GE was up but nothing spectacular. Gold was up $4 and the XAU was up over 2 points. ABX and NEM had good gains with ABX having good volume. The options I have are barely profitable now. Yesterdays 100% gain is a thing of the past. The dollar lost ground today and its downtrend may resume now. The employment number friday will be key. If it's weak the dollar could fall further and that would be positive for gold. The gold stocks charts aren't completely oversold yet so it's a toss-up really. Not sure what I will do here. Probably hold on until friday but we'll see. As I have said many times before, trading isn't easy. The toughest game in the world I believe. At any rate, decisions have to be made and the consequences have to be dealt with. I'm expecting some sort of pullback in the stock market but it hasn't happened yet. I'm a little tired here so that's it for now.
Tuesday, November 02, 2004
Election Day. We had a one day reversal. Opened higher and closed lower. Volume was heavy. Advance/declines were positive. Still overbought and I would expect some weakness in the next couple of days. But I believe the trend is up here. Still holding the long term GE calls. Canceled the Pfizer open order. Perhaps if the price comes down, I'll try again. Just missed it last monday. Gold went down big today, around $7. I'm not sure why. The dollar was up but not by much. NEM was down over a buck and ABX lost 50 cents. The ABX options I have are over 100% profitable. I've got a limit order in to sell them. A short term uptrend line on the XAU was broken today. I should be out of these options within a week. But you never know. I'm still a longer term bull for gold shares. I guess we'll see who wins the election and take it from there. If there is no clear winner after today, I would expect a sell-off tomorrow. Busy day for sure and it doesn't get any easier. Employment numbers on friday. You gotta love the game though.
Monday, November 01, 2004
The Dow was up 20 points on light volume. Advance/declines were mildly positive. Election Day tomorrow. All are calling for a rally when the election has ended. We are overbought here and quite so. I'm looking for a pullback. It doesn't have to be a big one but a pause is due. When everybody is calling for a rally, it just doesn't usually happen. We'll see. GE was down a few cents, the options are still showing a profit. This is a long term trade which I must remind myself. Gold was down a buck and a half, ABX and NEM were both down over 50 cents. Those stupid ABX puts I have are showing a profit. It's possible that the XAU will break an uptrend line here and that would bode well for those options. It's still a dumb trade. Pfizer was down around a quarter and the open order remains. I might cancel it before the close tomorrow. Will need to check the charts. 3 weeks before expiration so now is the time to look for the opportunities. OEX puts perhaps for the short term. We have an employment number on Friday and the Fed next week. Not sure any downturn has lasting ability here so I'll play it careful for now. Perhaps will look for the Gold calls near the Fed meeting or before, depending on how it plays out before friday. Kind of in a holding pattern until wednesday but you never know.
Sunday, October 31, 2004
Sunday afternoon. The dollar looks weaker as do the stock index futures. The ABX short trade is stupid. Yes, there is a divergence but I gotta be honest with myself. I did that trade after hearing somebody on CNBC say that gold had reached a top. I never do stupid things like that and I honestly don't know why I did it at the time. It's totally foolish. Yes, ABX rallied on light volume on friday and that isn't bullish. But I am actually waiting for a pullback to get long ABX or some other gold shares. There is no reason to try the short side. You have to go with your own judgement or convictions in this game. Nothing else is acceptable. What made me all of a sudden toss away my usual good judgement and enter a trade like that? I don't know. You've always got to be on guard against yourself. It is a most difficult thing to do. But sometimes you just blow it and that is what I have done with this trade. I should probably just get out in the morning and move on. That could be the best thing to do. Even if it makes some money it still sucks as a trade. Gold is moving up, with a pause here and there. Like I said, it was dumb and now I'll just have to suffer the consequences of my actions. There are no excuses in this game. You just move on and hope that the mistakes don't repeat themselves. They won't if you have any sense about it. But it is an ongoing battle and I try my best. You just have to have confidence in yourself and your ideas. Believe in yourself, that's the key. Don't let others influence your decisions and choices. Do the research and go with your own conclusions. Your thoughts and ideas are just as good as the rest of the players in the game. In fact they are probably better because you've been playing for quite a while and have seen a lot of things. So hang in there, stick with it and good things will happen.
Friday, October 29, 2004
The weekend has arrived. Dow up 22 points on lighter volume today. Advance/declines were positive. Gold was up over $3 today. ABX and NEM were up also but the volume was lighter than it has been lately. I made a trade. I now own some ABX puts. The negative divergence is still there and I am taking a shot here. Not a lot of money at stake here. We are at the top of the trend channel. Not sure what the exit goal will be. GDP was under 4%, how could it not be. The dollar fell but not by much. There is the election to get through. GE was up a tad, the long term options remain in the plus. I still have the open order for Pfizer. Lots of crosscurrents here but decisions must be made and trading must go on. The election looms large. Hopefully we will have a definite winner by wednesday. If not, I think the market will fall. I'm thinking of putting some more long term money to work in the mutual funds early next week. We are overbought on the Dow and OEX though. I'll need to see some weakness. I might get back here this weekend after I've had a chance to unwind from the week.
Thursday, October 28, 2004
Not a lot of movement today. The Dow was up 2 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about even. It is good to see that the volume has come back into the market. We are somewhat overbought here and a pullback before the election is expected. Tomorrow we have the first GDP report for the 3rd quarter. Around 4.5% is expected but I can't see it coming in that high. We'll see. Gold did not move much today but the XAU was off a point and a half. ABX and NEM were both down. Still a negative divergence on a couple of gold share charts. That may prove worth standing on the sidelines for now. The dollar was down a little today. GE was up a tad and the January options are showing a profit. I'm holding these for the long haul barring some unforeseen event. Pfizer was down today and I am leaving the open order active. Oil was down another buck and a half. China raised its interest rates which was a mild surprise. More tomorrow...
Wednesday, October 27, 2004
This site is having problems again. Might have to find a new one. Market up big again on good volume. Dow up over 110 points with 2 to 1 A/D's. GE up along with PFE. I'm leaving the open order for PFE although it looks like I missed it. Timing was right on but the option never got to my price on the ask. Gold was down a bit today but the gold stocks went down regardless of good earnings from NEM. Oil got clobbered and the dollar was up a tad and that didn't help the gold shares. There looks to be a negative divergence on some of the golds now and I am thankful that I didn't chase the move. That is something to remember, don't chase the move. GDP is out on friday and the dollar will move on that. I'll try to stay on the sidelines I suppose. Still plenty of time on the November options. My thinking is that this move in the market is real and I will look to perhaps add some more money to my mutual funds on any pullback. Long term money doesn't have to be timed as accurately but every little bit helps.
Tuesday, October 26, 2004
Still a half hour to go today. I have to leave early so the post must be done now. The Dow is up over 100 points on good volume. Advance/declines are 2 to 1 positive. GE is up around 50 cents. I still have an open order for December Pfizer calls but the stock is up again today and it doesn't look like it will be filled. I'll keep it open for now. Gold was down a couple bucks and the XAU was off a little as is ABX and NEM. The earnings came out on ABX today and they were not as good as expected. It sold off at the open but has since come back. There is a potential bearish candlestick pattern there today. I'm holding off for now. But the volume keeps coming into this issue and I would like a position in November calls, hopefully in the next 2 weeks. The money coming into gold has been pretty good so I've got to believe that it will continue to push higher. Dollar weakness is the key and that chart looks pretty bearish but could be due for a bounce. It is not easy to sit on the sidelines but chasing moves is not something that I feel confident doing. Patience is the key and I've got to wait for a pullback. If that doesn't happen there are always other games in town. But the volume is saying that gold shares are heading higher and I 'd like to take advantage of that. It's never easy, this game of trading. But the rewards for being astute are there for the taking if you're good enough. We'll see...
Sunday, October 24, 2004
Sunday. It looks like the dollar is continuing to get killed over the weekend. This should bode well for gold. I need to find a way to get a position. However, it is much too late. My only hope is for some type of pullback, remote as it seems. I am now looking to go in another direction. I have checked out Pfizer in the drug group and have an order placed for some December calls. They are priced for the stock to fall a bit more here but it has already been smashed. The technicals are blown out to the downside and a bounce is certainly due between now and December. If Bush wins the election, and that's no certainty, then these shares should rise and the calls also in value. I'm not looking for the usual home run here. Just a simple bounce trade, hopefully, with a 100% profit. I am not taking a huge position here. It is very modest. But I think the idea is feasible and that it will work. I will have to remind myself that this isn't going to be a big winner. It is so tough to do. The overall market looks like it wants to continue down on monday also. I will be playing golf before the close so tomorrows posting perhaps will be late or not at all. The time changes in a week so one last round of golf before that happens. Also balance is important when dealing with the markets. You really need a break once in a while so you don't burn out. Your mind needs to rest so it can stay fresh. It is much better to trade with an open and clear mind than with one that has been so consumed with trading that it fails to see anything else. Don't get me wrong, the work must be done and kept up on a daily basis. But there is also time to take a break and get away from it all. You will need to know when you need to do it or else your trading will suffer. You can't run your brain at 100 miles per hour constantly without risking burnout. As much as I love to trade I also understand that there is more to it than just that. Balance is essential.
Friday, October 22, 2004
The Dow got pounded today, down over 105 points. Volume was good. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. I think the market is pointing to a Kerry victory. Just a guess but that seems to be what the market is saying. Gold was off 30 cents today. ABX continues to move higher on good volume. My GTC order did not get filled and I canceled it. ABX has moved away from me. NEM was down today a few cents and I am looking to go there, if possible. The XAU was up a few cents. ABX earnings on tuesday and NEM earnings on wednesday. I have no idea what to expect but I wish I were long both. Cannot chase the move though. It's not easy. GE was down today and my way out January options didn't move. Perhaps I'm early on this. Don't know. Still lamenting not being long some gold shares. The dollar continues to weaken. I'll hope for a pullback in gold next week to get long. The shares are up against the top of the Bollinger bands so I think the upside is limited for the next couple weeks. Not completely overbought but getting close. OEX is breaking to new recent lows. Not a good sign but the technicals are oversold. Extra week on all the options makes it difficult also, pricewise. It's hard not to beat yourself up when you see the moves you were expecting yet have no positions to take advantage. It's not about the money. Really, the money doesn't matter. What matters is your performance. How you deal with the markets. You've got to live up to your own expectations. This has to do with how you trade and not how much money you make. Success is measured on your own terms, not a monetary figure. That may be hard to understand but that is the bottom line...
Thursday, October 21, 2004
Dow down 20 points today on heavy volume again. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive though. Uncertain what is going on here but I'm going to put some more long term money to work in my mutual funds tomorrow. Tradingwise, no OEX trades for now. GE moved up today. I wanted to change the price on my GTC order today because it appeared GE was breaking an uptrend line. When I went to the site to change it, lo and behold, my order had just been filled. So I now own some January GE calls. Eons of time on this trade. Gold was off 50 cents, ABX fell a little and NEM was up. The XAU was up slightly. I placed a GTC order for some November ABX calls, trying to get ahead of the earnings report next week. I don't like chasing it here but do not want to be left behind if this move keeps going. Do not know if it will get filled and may possibly cancel before the weekend. The dollar has been getting killed this week and quite frankly, I would have expected a better move in gold. But we are at long term resistance there. However if it breaks through, I do think it has a chance before the November expiration, then the gold stocks will rally pretty good. This is just a guess as are all things in this game. Some are more educated guesses than others. It is hard for me to remain patient and I struggle with that issue on a daily basis. Control of yourself is the key to getting things done properly. The battle within continues...
Wednesday, October 20, 2004
The Dow down 10 points today on good volume again. The volume has picked up here for some reason lately. Advance/declines were positive. The market had sold off but came back some. GE was down and I now have a GTC order in for the January calls. Plenty of time for this trade. I don't normally go out so far in time so we'll see what happens. Gold was up another $3 today. The XAU went along this time, up almost 3 points. I did put an order in for some ABX calls since my other GTC order had not been filled. The price moved too far so I canceled the GTC and went up to the next strike price. After not being filled for an hour or so I checked the charts and although I do like this idea, it looks like I have missed the move this time. ABX has already gone up a dollar. Perhaps it will come back and build a better base. I canceled the order. I would like to be long before the earnings next tuesday but it has already started to move. We'll see what happens. NEM was up over a buck today on heavy volume. So the money continues to flow into these issues. I'll try and find a way to follow it. No OEX trades for now. Premiums too expensive. Summation index still pointing down but the McClellan oscillator looks oversold. That's it for today.
Tuesday, October 19, 2004
Interesting day, however I was stuck in jury duty. I managed to see the close in the jury hall when I was able to change the channel on the TV. The Dow ended down around 60 points and would have been worse if IBM wasn't up over $3. It was up 50 when I left early this morning. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was actually heavy. Indicators are getting oversold but I don't know if today's volume was climatic or perhaps the beginning of a protracted downturn. It was a one day reversal for sure. GE was down and the January calls are getting down to where I'd like them to be. But it looks like GE has more to go. Gold was up over $4 today but the XAU could not even rise a point. This doesn't bode well for the gold shares. However ABX was up over 40 cents on good volume. NEM barely moved. Mixed and now uncertain in my mind for sure. I am leaving my GTC ABX order open. Perhaps I will move to NEM. I don't know. When the XAU can't get going with a good move in gold it makes me wary. Perhaps ABX can come back to it's uptrend line. That would be the ideal scenario. Or maybe this is the beginning of the next move up. I don't know and will wait it out for now. Trading is tough, make no mistake about that. An extra week on the options might let me be timid here and allow for more decision time. But if the time is right, the price is right. It has to be. It may not be exactly what you want to pay for it, but if the move begins you wanna be with it. Unsure what the action today in ABX means. Things will be back to normal and I'll be in touch with the market as usual. You really must be dedicated to the game I believe, to gain an edge. It is better to stay in a normal routine when watching the market. It is easier to spot the common and the uncommon. Hard to say what the market is saying here but I think it is headed down for the Dow. The gold market is tougher. I'd like to see a lazy pull back to $415. Wishful thinking...
Monday, October 18, 2004
Monday in the markets. Dow up over 20 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Lots of data out tomorrow with inflation and housing reports. I'm thinking the market can rally a bit here but I'm not convinced it can sustain it. We'll see. Gold was off a couple bucks today. The XAU was down around 1 3/4 points. ABX and NEM were both down but not much on average volume. I placed another GTC order for some ABX calls. We are getting near the uptrend line and I am banking on it holding. ABX announces earnings next tuesday and I'd like to be long before that. It is oversold on the daily charts also. Gold is around $415 and needs to hold $410. If not I will assume a downtrend is underway. GE was up today but the technical picture is mixed and not giving a solid buy signal yet. Would like to see it pull back before committing to the January calls. Not much else on the radar screen. With a 5 week option cycle the prices are expensive. However if a legitimate signal appears it must be acted on. I've got jury duty tomorrow so I will be unable to follow the markets as usual. Hopefully it will only be for one day.
Friday, October 15, 2004
We got a small bounce today with the Dow up around 35 points. Volume was expiration heavy and the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. OEX calls could have been purchased today for a profit. I stayed on the sidelines. Gold did not move much today, it was up a little. The XAU was up quite well though, almost 2 points. These two have disconnected recently and haven't been in sync. I don't have a reason but would guess it has something to do with the expiration this week. ABX and NEM were both up on good volume. I will purchase some calls on one of these issues next week. I'd like to get a good price but they are expensive with a 5 week option cycle for November. If and when they get to their up trend lines I will be purchasing calls. I still believe the trend is up for now and that this theory will work. I will hope for a pullback in gold to around $410 and see what happens there. It's a tricky play. The dollar has gotten weaker this week and that seems to be the key for gold. We had a good sell-off in the precious metal and it has come back. I interpret that as bullish and hopefully correctly so. Like I said, I'd like to see the options get cheaper and then make a purchase. Patience, yes. But I don't want to be left behind either. GE was up a tad today but I think the market has lower to go here and will take GE with it. I'm still looking to January there. The weekend has arrived...
Thursday, October 14, 2004
Markets continued down today, the Dow off over 105 points. Volume was good and the advance/declines were negative but not as much as yesterday. I really wanted to buy some OEX calls today. There is a buy signal on one of my indicators. The McClellan Oscillator is oversold at -121 also. There is only one day left. It would have to be a quick scalp trade. I had to battle myself not to do it. I suppose I really need a longer time frame to be confident. Perhaps another time I would have done it. But risk has got to be managed. Gold was up around $5 today. However the XAU did not move along with it and was only up fractionally. That is never a good sign for the gold stocks. I canceled my open order for November ABX calls. I still want to buy them but will wait it out for now. NEM and ABX were up slightly today on light volume. GE was down again, no trade there yet. Oil was higher again. Eventually oil will drop and the market will take off to the upside. I should be putting some more long term money to work in my mutual funds before that happens. Hopefully...
Wednesday, October 13, 2004
The Dow lost 75 points today as oil hit new highs. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume was good. So much for buying calls on the OEX. I almost did. However one must remember one of the golden rules. Don't try to get long when the summation index is pointing down. Especially when it is just starting down. Perhaps after it has been in a downtrend for a while you can try to step in but not at the beginning. Gold was off a couple bucks but the XAU got hammered, down almost 3 points. It was down more than 4 at one point. NEM was down around 50 cents but really held up rather well considering. The volume was huge. ABX was off 60 cents and I put in an order for some November calls. Far from the price right now but I'm expecting a bottom to form and that should take a while. There is an uptrend line that hasn't been violated and when it hits that line I would like to be filled. If the line doesn't hold then I will get out with a small loss. But I expect the line to hold. NEM possibly will be the better play this time and I will keep an eye on it. GE was down and I'm still looking out to January there. The basic materials got slammed today and I am guessing it might have been option related for the big boys. I was wrong in which way they'd run it. Final presidential debate tonight and perhaps something will happen. Dollar was higher. I'll try my best to sit on the sidelines before the expiration but you never know.
Tuesday, October 12, 2004
This site has been screwing up lately. The Dow was basically unchanged today, down around 4 points on lighter than lately volume. Advance/declines were negative. I don't have a clear signal but would like to buy some OEX calls. I'm trying to do the right thing which in this case may be to do nothing. Gold got killed today, down $7. The XAU was off almost 3 points and NEM was down over a dollar. ABX lost ground also. Perhaps my feeling that the gold stocks would be run up into the expiration was wrong. It's looking that way now. Oil sold off today also and all the commodities seemed to take a hit. I'm still looking to get long for November and ABX has pulled back to the $21 breakout point. Lots of time but I will have to wait for the technicals to give a signal. Patience will be key and it usually is. GE was unchanged. The summation index is pointing down now so it's tough for me to make a commitment to the long side. Anything can happen expiration week though.
Monday, October 11, 2004
It was Columbus Day today so the trading was light. Dow up around 25 points, advance/declines slightly positive. I'm leaning for some calls into expiration if we get a pullback in the next couple of days. If not I'll try to stay on the sidelines. Gold was down around a buck. The XAU was down all day but made a late comeback to be down only 3/4 of a point. ABX was down a nickel and NEM was off a little, both on light volume. I'd like to roll out to the November calls on ABX but don't want to be early. Timing, as always, will be the key to profitability. I still think gold has a ways to go. And I still believe the big boys will run these issues up into the expiration on friday. The calls today didn't get cheap enough to buy though. GE was up and that bodes well for the OEX call speculation. Not really looking at anything else right now. Am wondering if there will be a terrorist attack before the election. Haven't heard a lot about that lately. Markets should be a little more active tomorrow...
Friday, October 08, 2004
We waited all week for today's employment number and it came in weaker than expected. The Dow lost 70 points on lighter than usual volume. Advance/declines were about even. I am now looking to get some OEX calls for expiration week. Why? We had every excuse to really sell off today but did not. I think we will see some rally next week. This will be a very short term trade if it happens. With the weak data, the dollar slid today and gold was up around $5. The XAU was up over 2 points but closed on its low. NEM and ABX were up also but not as much as you would expect. The volume was low compared to what we have seen lately and they both also closed on their lows of the day. It could have been a banner day for the gold stocks but they are extended here. I'll look to get long on a pullback in the next couple of weeks. GE has in line earnings and sold off around 30 cents. I'm still in the market for January calls when the price is right. Time for the weekend and a thorough check of the charts before attempting to trade next week.
Thursday, October 07, 2004
Down 114 points on the Dow today and it closed near the low of the day. Volume was good and the advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. I don't own any OEX puts. In retrospect, I should have purchased a few at the close yesterday. There was a short term signal on one of my own indicators. But I did nothing, probably because I was too busy second guessing the sale of my ABX calls. It is always a battle amongst myself. Gold did not move today but the XAU was down almost a point. NEM and ABX were also down but on light volume. I might possibly get some NEM calls for expiration week if things work out that way. I'm looking for ABX to pullback to around 21 and I am going to go out to the November options on that. GE was down today and I did not buy any calls for the earnings report tomorrow. Employment number tomorrow and it will all trade off of that. If today is any indication, it will be a weak number. But we'll find out tomorrow. The ABX trade ended up 240% and the profits were big because I owned twice as much as planned. My account is back in the black and barring some real stupid trades on my part this will be a good year. I am now in the position of having to search for a new trade. Patience and discipline are needed. It's always hard for me. 6 days until expiration and I will probably try and do something. I'll check the charts tonight and take it from there.
Wednesday, October 06, 2004
The Dow continues to climb, up over 60 points today. Even with crude oil hitting a new high. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive and the volume was OK again. I'm laying off the OEX puts for now. I bailed out of my ABX calls today. I fear that I may have gotten out too soon. They do have 7 days left on them and the XAU closed strong, near the highs of the day. I sold half of them in the morning and then decided to just get out of the whole position. Gold didn't move much today and ABX was up a dime on good volume again. NEM was up 30 cents. The technicals are all way overbought on ABX and have been for a few days. I don't know how much longer that situation could go on. The profits were pretty good, I had twice as much as originally intended. But I can't help but think that this issue will continue to get run up into the expiration next friday. If we do get some type of pullback in the next couple of days I might be tempted to purchase some NEM calls for the last few days. That remains to be seen. Perhaps I could have just held on to half the position to see where it might lead. GE was up today and I was considering some calls before the earnings come out on friday. However the technicals really weren't clear on a buy signal and I haven't been watching it as closely as I should for a trade. Trading is tough. It is not an exact science. It is difficult and it seems I always second guess my moves. Honestly, I was happier with my exit on the recent failed OEX trade last friday than I am with my actions on this trade. I just have the feeling that ABX will ultimately go higher before the expiration. We'll see. Employment number on friday. Will possibly get short tomorrow.
Yesterdays blog never printed. Quick recap. Gold bounced back over $4. The XAU was up 2 1/2 points, NEM up over a dollar and ABX up around 60 cents. The Dow was down about 40 points. Advance/declines were even and the volume was OK. ABX is overbought and I expect some type of pullback. It is probably time to sell but there are 8 days left. The employment number looms large on friday. I'd like to get some OEX puts again but am not totally convinced. I'll be back with todays report later. Hopefully this will print.
Tuesday, October 05, 2004
A mixed market today with the Dow off around 40 points. The OEX and SPX barely moved and were off slightly. The Nasdaq was up a tad. Volume was lighter than yesterday. I really would like to get some OEX puts but am holding off. And fighting myself to do so. I'm thinking the employment numbers on friday will be good to help Bush in his re-election bid. That's just a guess but who knows? The technicals are overbought at this point but could work that off by friday. Sidelines for now. Gold bounced back over $4 today. The XAU was back up 2 1/2 points, NEM was up over a dollar and ABX rose around 60 cents. These are all waaay overbought. There has got to be a pullback. The volume on ABX continues to be robust to the upside and there are 8 days to go on the options. As long as the volume keeps up I'm gonna stick around. ABX just broke the resistance at 21. It should pullback and then resume to the upside. I can't believe it's gone this long. The options have tripled. But nothing has been banked yet. I still haven't gotten the RSI exit signal but it could be soon. It has been a great run so far. My thinking is that the big boys will run gold up into the October option expiration. Again it's just a guess but the volume has been more than I've seen all year practically for ABX. Of course it's nice to have a profit but it will be better to trade it properly in the long run. It's never easy. Tomorrow is another day...
Monday, October 04, 2004
The Dow was up over 20 points on good volume for a monday. Advance/declines were positive. We are getting overbought here and I expect a pullback. I'd like to try the OEX puts again if I can figure out the proper timing. If we rally into fridays employment report, then I'll get short ahead of the report. If not I guess I'll be on the sidelines. Gold got clobbered today, down 5 and a half dollars. The XAU was only off a little more than a point. ABX was somehow unchanged. ABX is holding up well in the face of bad news. This thing has got to go down one of these days. It would actually be better if it did to work off some of the overbought condition. It's at the top of its Bollinger bands on the daily and weekly charts. Volume was solid again today. Money continues to come into this issue. I have know idea why. I'm staying with it for now but it is a tricky call. It is acting very good though, I can't deny that. NEM was only down around 30 cents here today. GE didn't move much. I'll be looking for a spot to buy those OEX puts again but I know I have to be very careful. We'll see what happens.
Friday, October 01, 2004
The Dow zoomed to the upside, up around 110 points. Volume was good and the advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Unfortunately my open order for OEX puts was filled right at the open. I caught the high in the contract for the day. In hindsight, I should have canceled the ticket yesterday. The beginning of the quarter money poured in today. I made a mistake. I should have seen it coming. Perhaps my concern for gold took my complete attention away from the OEX. It is a difficult game. I need to get better. I sold the OEX puts for a loss near the close. No sense in holding on, although the time factor would be in my favor. I took a 55% loss in one day. Luckily for me I did not have a lot of money involved with this trade but it is a loss none the less. Not a good way to end the week and approach the weekend. Gold didn't do much today. The XAU was down around a point. NEM was down a little. ABX did not move. The volume slowed on the decline. That's usually a good sign. However ABX has not pulled back, which I would like to see before we get going to the upside again. That's a best case scenario. 2 weeks to go for that one. It is up around 100% at this time. I'm looking for some more upside before exiting. Might get back here this weekend.
Thursday, September 30, 2004
Bad news from Merck was the reason for today's 55 point loss in the Dow. They are pulling a drug off the market and lost 25% of their value. Wow. Volume was heavy due to all the selling. Advance/declines were positive. I still have an open order for some OEX puts. Haven't been filled yet however I'm not so sure about this trade with the positive breadth lately. I'm still willing to risk it though, for now. Gold moved up $5. The XAU was up 2 1/2, NEM up over a buck and ABX up a half. All with heavy volume. There's gotta be a rest in here sometime. My ABX calls are making money and still have 2 weeks to go. Gold and the gold stocks are way overbought here. I'll need to be careful. The dollar got clobbered today and that is the most likely reason for the rise in gold. I'm hoping not to be so greedy and it's hard to do. I'll see how far this will run, I suppose. I plan on using RSI for the exit when a signal occurs. GE didn't move much. Tomorrow starts the 4th quarter and I assume some buying will take place and perhaps those OEX puts will get filled. We'll see...
Wednesday, September 29, 2004
Just another day in the markets. The Dow was up around 60 points. Volume was about the same as yesterday. Advance/declines were slightly positive. I still have an open order for some OEX puts and at this rate it will be filled tomorrow. Not so sure about them now. However if it looks like they're not going to work, I'll dump them for a small loss. Hopefully. Gold didn't do much today and neither did the XAU. NEM was about unchanged. The only positive was that ABX moved up around a quarter on heavy volume. We are overbought here and I don't know how long it can stay like that but ABX is starting to act good. It will probably back off here but with 2 weeks left I think that this will work. I'd like to see the overall market stall out tomorrow. That would give the OEX put scenario a chance at being profitable. End of the month and we could get some swings Thursday. We'll see what happens.
Tuesday, September 28, 2004
Got some movement today but I don't know why. Dow up around 90 points on more than 2 to 1 advance/declines. Volume was a little better but nothing great. I'm taking this as the bounce I was looking for and have an open order for some OEX puts. If we get some more upside tomorrow they might get filled. Gold was up over 3 bucks today. The XAU responded by moving up 3 points. NEM was up good over a buck and a half. ABX was up but it was disappointing, only a quarter on heavy volume. My options are showing a slight profit but the action hasn't been as positive as I would have liked. The price movement just isn't really getting going to the upside. At this point I would rather be holding NEM. But I'm not so I will deal with what I've got. The volume has been good in the gold stocks, so I'm assuming they have more to run. It won't be a straight line mind you but there is over 2 weeks left there. If the OEX trade gets filled I won't be looking to hold on to it forever for that is a much more difficult market to trade. It's only tuesday but the markets seem to be back in a trading mode and hopefully I will be able to take advantage of it.
Monday, September 27, 2004
Monday blues and blahs as the Dow was down around 60 points. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative on the usual, light as of late volume. Would like to see a bounce to get short as the trend is down. Hasn't happened yet. With the rollover of the summation index any short play should work before the October expiration provided you don't get greedy. GE was down again but those January options are not cheap enough for me yet. Gold was up a buck and change. The XAU, NEM and ABX were all up fractionally. Not a lot of movement and they are all overbought. Again, just running in place on ABX does not look good for me. The options are stuck right where I purchased them. I don't like it. Time is on my side for now but a big move in the wrong direction will kill this trade. Would have liked to see the XAU follow through on the breakout, taking ABX with it. Will really need to cut the loss here since I own twice as much as preferred. If we can't get some upside traction soon I'm gonna have to get out and start looking for something else. The weekly charts look good on this though so there is hope. I'll try to be patient but I'll also try to be coherent...
Friday, September 24, 2004
Dow was up all of 8 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. Still might get a chance to short this thing. The summation Index has rolled over. I'll hope for a little rally and check prices on the puts if that occurs. Gold was off over 2 bucks today. The XAU was actually up a little as was ABX but I don't like the action. The XAU sold off in the last hour, never a good sign. Maybe it was weekend related, maybe not. ABX has had good volume the last 2 days and hasn't been able to move. That is not a positive. The options I hold are back to where I bought them. 3 weeks to go on these things which is the only positive at this point. Technicals are moving to overbought. I don't know. Perhaps should have sold half the position today at a small profit. That would have been the prudent thing to do. GE didn't do much today. I'm holding off there right now. Will check all the charts and perhaps get back here this weekend.
Thursday, September 23, 2004
Dow down another 70 points. Advance/declines only slightly negative and volume was nothing special. Puts would have been nice. Gold rallied over 3 dollars. However the XAU was barely positive. Not a good sign. ABX had good volume and was unchanged. Not good news there either. The options moved up a little early and then moved right back to where I purchased them. This is starting to look like a bad trade. Not that it can't still work out but the action since taking the position hasn't been stellar. I would have expected the XAU to be able to work its way higher but it hasn't. It was up for most of the day and faded in the last hour. Not a good way to end the day. GE was down again today however the options I'm looking at are not attractive just yet. We'll see about gold tomorrow...
Wednesday, September 22, 2004
10 minutes to go and it's a big down day. The Dow is off around 140 points on good volume. Advance/declines are 2 to 1 negative. OEX puts were the way to go but I think there will be another chance to buy them in a few days. The options really don't move a lot in the first week after expiration. There is too much time left on them. A little rally in the next few sessions and I might be able to buy some puts for the same price as yesterday. Gold was off a little over a dollar today. The XAU is down around half a point. There was no follow through. I don't like that. ABX is holding up rather well and is only off a few cents. Volume is heavier than normal. The options haven't moved. That's a plus. The dollar was stronger today and is probably the excuse for the gold stocks not moving today. We'll see about tomorrow. Dow moving to the lows of the day. Trading is all about timing. I thought the XAU was breaking out. The next 2 sessions will tell the tale for that.
Tuesday, September 21, 2004
The Dow was up a little over 40 points today after the Fed raised the funds rate another quarter point. Advance/declines over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was nothing special. No clear signal here. Gold rallied over 3 bucks and the XAU started to move. It was up over 3 points and has broken out above 95. I am trying the breakout with ABX. I had an order in for some calls and it wasn't getting filled. I tried to cancel the order near the close, since I was going to put in another order at the ask in order to get filled. The order wouldn't cancel so I placed the other order, which got filled. To my surprise the original order at a lower price also somehow got filled a minute before I placed the higher priced order. How or why this happened I do not know. But now I hold twice as many calls as I wanted. Has this happened before? Yes. The disastrous GE trade at the beginning of the year. Now here the XAU is breaking out in my opinion. I think this trade has a good chance to work. But you never know in this game and I really should put in some stop-loss orders tomorrow. Or dump half of this position to get back to the original commitment of this trade. NEM was up but not as much as usual. I think it's due to the downgrade of last friday. That's why I decided on ABX at this time. I figure less money will be flowing to NEM this time and that leaves more to head the way of ABX. Just a guess though but what isn't? Gotta run...
Monday, September 20, 2004
The Dow was off 80 points today. Advance/declines were negative but not as bad as a market down 80. Volume was light. The SPX was only down 6 points, so it wasn't what I would call a broad move down. Make no mistake, I would like to get some puts here but I will not chase the move. Fed meets tomorrow. Gold was down a little, the XAU was up almost a point and NEM was up fractionally. I want to get long NEM but will wait for it to get to the uptrend line. It is just about there. GE didn't do much today but did not decline with the rest of the market. We are in a weak seasonal period. However the technicals are not all that overbought. I will try to be patient. I think there will be a terrorist act on our soil before the election. I would like to have some gold calls for that. Or some OEX puts. The timing is everything as it always is. Would not mind taking a chance in October. Reality is that I've got to pay attention and put in the effort and work. Perhaps then good things will happen. I'll try my best...
Friday, September 17, 2004
Option expiration was pretty uneventful as has been the case with the overall market lately. Dow up 40 points with advances slightly ahead of declines. Volume a little heavier than we've seen. Gold barely moved. The XAU was down less than a point. The news was in NEM. It was downgraded today by some Wall Street firm and lost a buck and a quarter on very heavy volume. ABX was off a fraction. Do I get long NEM? Yes, but not yet. Perhaps next week but it will depend on the action. Fed meeting on tuesday. We shall see. If the XAU can hold above 91 then I am getting long NEM for sure. If not then all trades are off for the long side. Would like to get some October OEX puts at some point soon. Will have to check the charts this weekend and get back here on monday.
Thursday, September 16, 2004
Another blah day in the market. Dow up 13 points on the usual light volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. Market was higher on good inflation data then just drifted off for the rest of the day. Gold was off a little and so were NEM and ABX. I'm looking for some kind of trade but don't see anything worthwhile at this point. Perhaps after the Fed on tuesday there will be some kind of signal or direction. The dollar was weaker and gold couldn't move higher on that. Not a good sign for the longs. Internals of the overall market are solid yet no move higher is puzzling. Perhaps it is expiration related. I'm on the sidelines until next week for sure.
Wednesday, September 15, 2004
The Dow was down 86 points today. I suppose the OEX puts would have worked. But you really have to be quick and pay strict attention with the OEX. Volume was again light and the advance/declines were negative. 2 days before option expiration and I am definitely trying to stay on the sidelines. Gold did not move much today but the XAU was down over a point. ABX and NEM were also down a percent or so apiece. Volume there was light. I will check where the uptrend line is on NEM and get long when it gets there. That is the plan for now. GE backed off a bit and I have to check the charts on that one. Trading is a tough business. Lack of volatility, as we have been seeing lately, makes it even more difficult. I'm hanging in there, trying to stay positive in the face of losses and moving on. Where we go from here is anybodies guess but I'm still of the belief that another trip down in the market will occur. We shall see...
Tuesday, September 14, 2004
Not much in the way of movement today. Yeah, the Dow was up a little and down a little. Ended plus 3 points. Light volume, advance/declines about even. I'd like to get short but probably shouldn't. Gold was up a buck and a half. The XAU was up good, around 1 and 3/4. NEM was up as well as ABX. Could those gold trades have worked out if I had held on to them? Only time will tell but it would have been extremely risky to hold them. The gold stocks have moved up in the last week of expiration for the past few months. My timing on the buy was off and that killed those trades. I should have waited and now I am stuck here in no mans land. Might have to get some October calls then. Inflation data on Thursday could be a market mover and we have the Fed meeting next week. The lack of volume is not a good sign for strength in my opinion and perhaps we have to go down once more before we get a good rally. Just a guess. Futures are selling off a bit here and the dollar is a bit weaker...