Bad news from Merck was the reason for today's 55 point loss in the Dow. They are pulling a drug off the market and lost 25% of their value. Wow. Volume was heavy due to all the selling. Advance/declines were positive. I still have an open order for some OEX puts. Haven't been filled yet however I'm not so sure about this trade with the positive breadth lately. I'm still willing to risk it though, for now. Gold moved up $5. The XAU was up 2 1/2, NEM up over a buck and ABX up a half. All with heavy volume. There's gotta be a rest in here sometime. My ABX calls are making money and still have 2 weeks to go. Gold and the gold stocks are way overbought here. I'll need to be careful. The dollar got clobbered today and that is the most likely reason for the rise in gold. I'm hoping not to be so greedy and it's hard to do. I'll see how far this will run, I suppose. I plan on using RSI for the exit when a signal occurs. GE didn't move much. Tomorrow starts the 4th quarter and I assume some buying will take place and perhaps those OEX puts will get filled. We'll see...
Wednesday, September 29, 2004
Just another day in the markets. The Dow was up around 60 points. Volume was about the same as yesterday. Advance/declines were slightly positive. I still have an open order for some OEX puts and at this rate it will be filled tomorrow. Not so sure about them now. However if it looks like they're not going to work, I'll dump them for a small loss. Hopefully. Gold didn't do much today and neither did the XAU. NEM was about unchanged. The only positive was that ABX moved up around a quarter on heavy volume. We are overbought here and I don't know how long it can stay like that but ABX is starting to act good. It will probably back off here but with 2 weeks left I think that this will work. I'd like to see the overall market stall out tomorrow. That would give the OEX put scenario a chance at being profitable. End of the month and we could get some swings Thursday. We'll see what happens.
Tuesday, September 28, 2004
Got some movement today but I don't know why. Dow up around 90 points on more than 2 to 1 advance/declines. Volume was a little better but nothing great. I'm taking this as the bounce I was looking for and have an open order for some OEX puts. If we get some more upside tomorrow they might get filled. Gold was up over 3 bucks today. The XAU responded by moving up 3 points. NEM was up good over a buck and a half. ABX was up but it was disappointing, only a quarter on heavy volume. My options are showing a slight profit but the action hasn't been as positive as I would have liked. The price movement just isn't really getting going to the upside. At this point I would rather be holding NEM. But I'm not so I will deal with what I've got. The volume has been good in the gold stocks, so I'm assuming they have more to run. It won't be a straight line mind you but there is over 2 weeks left there. If the OEX trade gets filled I won't be looking to hold on to it forever for that is a much more difficult market to trade. It's only tuesday but the markets seem to be back in a trading mode and hopefully I will be able to take advantage of it.
Monday, September 27, 2004
Monday blues and blahs as the Dow was down around 60 points. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative on the usual, light as of late volume. Would like to see a bounce to get short as the trend is down. Hasn't happened yet. With the rollover of the summation index any short play should work before the October expiration provided you don't get greedy. GE was down again but those January options are not cheap enough for me yet. Gold was up a buck and change. The XAU, NEM and ABX were all up fractionally. Not a lot of movement and they are all overbought. Again, just running in place on ABX does not look good for me. The options are stuck right where I purchased them. I don't like it. Time is on my side for now but a big move in the wrong direction will kill this trade. Would have liked to see the XAU follow through on the breakout, taking ABX with it. Will really need to cut the loss here since I own twice as much as preferred. If we can't get some upside traction soon I'm gonna have to get out and start looking for something else. The weekly charts look good on this though so there is hope. I'll try to be patient but I'll also try to be coherent...
Friday, September 24, 2004
Dow was up all of 8 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. Still might get a chance to short this thing. The summation Index has rolled over. I'll hope for a little rally and check prices on the puts if that occurs. Gold was off over 2 bucks today. The XAU was actually up a little as was ABX but I don't like the action. The XAU sold off in the last hour, never a good sign. Maybe it was weekend related, maybe not. ABX has had good volume the last 2 days and hasn't been able to move. That is not a positive. The options I hold are back to where I bought them. 3 weeks to go on these things which is the only positive at this point. Technicals are moving to overbought. I don't know. Perhaps should have sold half the position today at a small profit. That would have been the prudent thing to do. GE didn't do much today. I'm holding off there right now. Will check all the charts and perhaps get back here this weekend.
Thursday, September 23, 2004
Dow down another 70 points. Advance/declines only slightly negative and volume was nothing special. Puts would have been nice. Gold rallied over 3 dollars. However the XAU was barely positive. Not a good sign. ABX had good volume and was unchanged. Not good news there either. The options moved up a little early and then moved right back to where I purchased them. This is starting to look like a bad trade. Not that it can't still work out but the action since taking the position hasn't been stellar. I would have expected the XAU to be able to work its way higher but it hasn't. It was up for most of the day and faded in the last hour. Not a good way to end the day. GE was down again today however the options I'm looking at are not attractive just yet. We'll see about gold tomorrow...
Wednesday, September 22, 2004
10 minutes to go and it's a big down day. The Dow is off around 140 points on good volume. Advance/declines are 2 to 1 negative. OEX puts were the way to go but I think there will be another chance to buy them in a few days. The options really don't move a lot in the first week after expiration. There is too much time left on them. A little rally in the next few sessions and I might be able to buy some puts for the same price as yesterday. Gold was off a little over a dollar today. The XAU is down around half a point. There was no follow through. I don't like that. ABX is holding up rather well and is only off a few cents. Volume is heavier than normal. The options haven't moved. That's a plus. The dollar was stronger today and is probably the excuse for the gold stocks not moving today. We'll see about tomorrow. Dow moving to the lows of the day. Trading is all about timing. I thought the XAU was breaking out. The next 2 sessions will tell the tale for that.
Tuesday, September 21, 2004
The Dow was up a little over 40 points today after the Fed raised the funds rate another quarter point. Advance/declines over 2 to 1 positive and the volume was nothing special. No clear signal here. Gold rallied over 3 bucks and the XAU started to move. It was up over 3 points and has broken out above 95. I am trying the breakout with ABX. I had an order in for some calls and it wasn't getting filled. I tried to cancel the order near the close, since I was going to put in another order at the ask in order to get filled. The order wouldn't cancel so I placed the other order, which got filled. To my surprise the original order at a lower price also somehow got filled a minute before I placed the higher priced order. How or why this happened I do not know. But now I hold twice as many calls as I wanted. Has this happened before? Yes. The disastrous GE trade at the beginning of the year. Now here the XAU is breaking out in my opinion. I think this trade has a good chance to work. But you never know in this game and I really should put in some stop-loss orders tomorrow. Or dump half of this position to get back to the original commitment of this trade. NEM was up but not as much as usual. I think it's due to the downgrade of last friday. That's why I decided on ABX at this time. I figure less money will be flowing to NEM this time and that leaves more to head the way of ABX. Just a guess though but what isn't? Gotta run...
Monday, September 20, 2004
The Dow was off 80 points today. Advance/declines were negative but not as bad as a market down 80. Volume was light. The SPX was only down 6 points, so it wasn't what I would call a broad move down. Make no mistake, I would like to get some puts here but I will not chase the move. Fed meets tomorrow. Gold was down a little, the XAU was up almost a point and NEM was up fractionally. I want to get long NEM but will wait for it to get to the uptrend line. It is just about there. GE didn't do much today but did not decline with the rest of the market. We are in a weak seasonal period. However the technicals are not all that overbought. I will try to be patient. I think there will be a terrorist act on our soil before the election. I would like to have some gold calls for that. Or some OEX puts. The timing is everything as it always is. Would not mind taking a chance in October. Reality is that I've got to pay attention and put in the effort and work. Perhaps then good things will happen. I'll try my best...
Friday, September 17, 2004
Option expiration was pretty uneventful as has been the case with the overall market lately. Dow up 40 points with advances slightly ahead of declines. Volume a little heavier than we've seen. Gold barely moved. The XAU was down less than a point. The news was in NEM. It was downgraded today by some Wall Street firm and lost a buck and a quarter on very heavy volume. ABX was off a fraction. Do I get long NEM? Yes, but not yet. Perhaps next week but it will depend on the action. Fed meeting on tuesday. We shall see. If the XAU can hold above 91 then I am getting long NEM for sure. If not then all trades are off for the long side. Would like to get some October OEX puts at some point soon. Will have to check the charts this weekend and get back here on monday.
Thursday, September 16, 2004
Another blah day in the market. Dow up 13 points on the usual light volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. Market was higher on good inflation data then just drifted off for the rest of the day. Gold was off a little and so were NEM and ABX. I'm looking for some kind of trade but don't see anything worthwhile at this point. Perhaps after the Fed on tuesday there will be some kind of signal or direction. The dollar was weaker and gold couldn't move higher on that. Not a good sign for the longs. Internals of the overall market are solid yet no move higher is puzzling. Perhaps it is expiration related. I'm on the sidelines until next week for sure.
Wednesday, September 15, 2004
The Dow was down 86 points today. I suppose the OEX puts would have worked. But you really have to be quick and pay strict attention with the OEX. Volume was again light and the advance/declines were negative. 2 days before option expiration and I am definitely trying to stay on the sidelines. Gold did not move much today but the XAU was down over a point. ABX and NEM were also down a percent or so apiece. Volume there was light. I will check where the uptrend line is on NEM and get long when it gets there. That is the plan for now. GE backed off a bit and I have to check the charts on that one. Trading is a tough business. Lack of volatility, as we have been seeing lately, makes it even more difficult. I'm hanging in there, trying to stay positive in the face of losses and moving on. Where we go from here is anybodies guess but I'm still of the belief that another trip down in the market will occur. We shall see...
Tuesday, September 14, 2004
Not much in the way of movement today. Yeah, the Dow was up a little and down a little. Ended plus 3 points. Light volume, advance/declines about even. I'd like to get short but probably shouldn't. Gold was up a buck and a half. The XAU was up good, around 1 and 3/4. NEM was up as well as ABX. Could those gold trades have worked out if I had held on to them? Only time will tell but it would have been extremely risky to hold them. The gold stocks have moved up in the last week of expiration for the past few months. My timing on the buy was off and that killed those trades. I should have waited and now I am stuck here in no mans land. Might have to get some October calls then. Inflation data on Thursday could be a market mover and we have the Fed meeting next week. The lack of volume is not a good sign for strength in my opinion and perhaps we have to go down once more before we get a good rally. Just a guess. Futures are selling off a bit here and the dollar is a bit weaker...
Monday, September 13, 2004
The Dow was basically unchanged today, up a little over a point. Volume was nothing special and the advance/declines were positive. No economic news today and it is option expiration week. Gold was up a couple bucks with the XAU, NEM and ABX all showing small gains on lighter than average volume. The options I previously owned did nothing. Now for a losing recap. The ABX calls were a 75% loss and the NEM calls were a 62% loss. Ouch! I might go for some October calls if prices are right and a signal develops, which I think could happen. But who knows. The Bollinger bands are converging implying a big move is at hand. Which way it goes is another question. However other technical indicators are oversold so I am believing a move to the upside is imminent. With the OEX this week I hopefully will stay out of the picture. It's getting more overbought but it has been overbought for a while. Not much else to say. Moving on from losses as best I can. Trying to stay focused and look for the next opportunity. Not beating myself up for the latest debacle. Should use stop loss orders but that makes a little too much sense now, doesn't it?
Friday, September 10, 2004
The Dow was up 24 points today on light volume again. Advance/declines were positive. I still think this market wants to work higher. But that is not the story today. I took my lumps in gold today, closing out all my positions with major losses. At least 50% on each trade. Gold was up over $3 today and the XAU, NEM and ABX rallied early. As the day went on however the rally stalled. It wasn't a convincing move in my opinion and I noticed the volume was low. I hung on as long as I could but when things started to fade in the final hour I decided to just get out. The dollar was weak again and if that can't get a good rally going, nothing will. With only a week left I could not hold these any longer. Now next week could be great for gold but maybe not and I had already lost too much as it was. This trade along with the early GE blowout this year have really did me in. It seems whenever I take a larger than normal position it always backfires on me. Make a note of that. GE was up a little today and that was a trade that would have worked. I still might look at gold for October but am uncertain at this point. I'll check things over the weekend and take it from there I suppose. Losses are inevitable in the game however I must learn to limit them if I am ever going to make this work on a consistent basis. Am I getting closer to the mission? I sure hope so. But trades like these are steps backwards. Patience is something I just have got to get a hold of. Discipline is another.
Thursday, September 09, 2004
It seems like a market that wants to go higher. The Dow was down 25 points but advance/declines were positive and the volume picked up. GE continues to gain ground. The SPX and the OEX were both higher also. Gold lost a dollar and the XAU, NEM and ABX were fractionally higher. The options are still losers. It would take a miracle at this point just to break even. The dollar was higher today. The trade number tomorrow will be the key between a small loss or a big one for these gold trades. They are already predicting a huge deficit, so if it comes in less than that it could be viewed as a positive when in reality it really isn't. Doesn't matter now, my timing was off and losses are the result. Gotta get out and move on unless gold rallies big tomorrow. Not much else to say at this point...
Wednesday, September 08, 2004
The Dow was off around 30 points on light volume again. Advance/declines were negative. There is a non conformation of yesterdays high on the McClellan oscillator. Would like to short strength tomorrow but I 'm all tied up in gold. Gold was up a couple bucks today but the XAU, NEM and ABX were all down on good volume. Not a good sign for the long side. The calls are all losing money and I am running out of time. These trades will be losers. That's the reality of it at this point. I'll still wait for friday but I don't think it will matter. My prognosis was simply wrong and when that happens, you'll lose money. The dollar was weaker today also and the gold stocks could not rally. So this is real trouble at this juncture. I'll have to try to cut the loss as best I can but it isn't looking good. Volume expanding on the downside and I am screwed. Oh well, back to the drawing board I guess. GE is still going higher and the calls there would have worked well at this point. But what can ya do? I'm stuck in gold and it's a loser...
Tuesday, September 07, 2004
20 minutes to go. The Dow is up around 60 points. Advance/declines are over 2 to 1 positive. The volume is light again. The convention is over, summer is over, there are no more excuses for light volume. We have touched the longer term downtrend line at 546 on the OEX. This is the moment of truth for the market. If we get through here, a longer rally will take place. I'd like to get short here but I am already committed to the gold trade. My NEM GTC order was filled this morning as gold was down again today, this time over 3 bucks. The XAU is holding up rather well, off a little over a point. NEM and ABX are both down but not much. However premium is being sucked out of the options and each show a loss. I will still wait for fridays trade number as that was the original plan. But it isn't looking good today. I still think this will work. Perhaps some OEX puts are in the plan, it depends on the market action in the next two days. Greenspan will speak tomorrow and that is usually a market mover. That's it for today, I must end early due to other commitments...
Friday, September 03, 2004
Well the employment number came and went. It was in line with expectations. The Dow ended up down 30 points on extremely light volume. Advance/declines were negative. Hopefully the volume will pick up next week. Gold got hammered, off over $5. The dollar rallied. The XAU was off a point and a half. NEM lost around 80 cents and ABX lost about 20 cents, both on light volume. The gold stocks held up better than I expected, considering the move in gold. I put in an order for some NEM September 45 calls, GTC. Perhaps it will get filled with some weakness on tuesday. My ABX calls are now at a loss. I am still believing that the gold stocks will rally before the expiration as they have for the past several months. The merchandise trade report will be out next week and that will be the key for gold in the near term I believe. There are 2 weeks to go in the options and that should be enough time for a rally and profitable positions. I could be wrong as I have been in the past. But my thinking is that this scenario will pan out. GE was down today, I'll have to check the charts on that one. I will short the OEX when it gets to the downtrend line at about 546. Ideally there will be a divergence in the McClellan oscillator when this occurs. It's a long Labor Day beginning. I'll check everything over the weekend and return to the trades on tuesday.
Thursday, September 02, 2004
Finally some movement today as the Dow gained over 120 points. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. The volume was light again and that has been the problem with this recent rise in the market. I don't know if it's believable. We are right at some multiweek downtrend lines in all the major indices. But we are approaching them on weak volume. I would like to get short when we get there which could be tomorrow. Employment report tomorrow. That will be key. There was talk today that the number is already known and that is why we had such a good rally today. Who knows? We'll see tomorrow. Gold was down $4. The XAU was down less than a point. ABX and NEM were off slightly. Considering the drop in gold the stocks held up rather well. Again, how the dollar reacts to tomorrows news will be key. GE was up today but not a lot and the volume was light. Important report tomorrow and then a long holiday weekend. Things could get interesting...