Wednesday, April 30, 2008
It was a one day reversal to the downside today as the Dow lost 12 points on good volume. We were up over 170 at one point after the Fed announcement. Advance/declines look slightly to the positive. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. I still don't think that this is the beginning of a big decline. I could be wrong. The Fed cut rates the expected 1/4. Perhaps it was profit taking, maybe end of the month nonsense or just relieving the overbought condition. You cannot deny the price action though. I can't see any big upside ahead of the employment report due on Friday. Gold didn't do much during the day but did rally a bit after the Fed. The XAU rose 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM all were higher on OK volume. The volume in ABX was very heavy as was the volume in the May 40 calls. Don't know what that means but ABX didn't move as high as GG and NEM. Perhaps end of the month settling. The ABX calls I have are now slightly in the black. I suppose I will wait for the earnings on Tuesday now. But we'll see. GE was down a touch on average volume. Sideways there lately. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. As always the question is where we go from here. Tomorrow should be a down day after the action of today. We aren't oversold here but could get there by Friday sometime. We are stalling where you would expect to on the indices. Is it a pause before we break out to the upside or is that it for the bulls? Answers to follow in the coming days.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
A waiting game as the Dow lost 40 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. It's all up to the Fed now and whatever statement comes out tomorrow. There has been talk of no rate cut at all but I doubt that will happen. I can make a case for a fall here but I don't think it will last too long. But we'll see. GDP tomorrow also. We are still overbought. Gold got crushed today, down around 20 bucks and still selling off in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 7 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all lost at least a dollar on good volume. My overnight order for ABX calls was filled. Of course I could have gotten a better price during the day but go figure. It's the kind of trade that is dead from the start it seems. Earnings in a week but it seems the macro story is bigger. The dollar is gaining strength and nobody wants gold anymore. That could change but it seems that money is moving out of gold. I'm going to sit tight until the earnings unless we just tank out from here. I am getting a buy signal for the gold shares here but it could take a while at this rate. GE lost 1/3 on average volume. Nothing doing there. Mentally I am OK, could have slept better. Computer problems early but it sorted itself out. My thoughts right now are that even if we get a sell-off tomorrow it won't last too long. My own technical work is telling me that. As always, I could be wrong. That is why I haven't purchased any OEX puts as of yet. The ABX trade isn't looking good today but that could change. It might be something that I exit if it gets back to even, regardless of the earnings. Trades are always in flux. It's not some long term, hold until expiration deal. That's for sure. Tomorrow should be interesting.
Monday, April 28, 2008
A fairly quiet Monday as the Dow lost 20 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. We were higher for a good portion of the day but turned around in the last hour to close near the lows. I could easily make a case for buying OEX puts here and perhaps will tomorrow. However the internals have been very positive lately and the summation index continues higher. We are medium term overbought and any strength tomorrow will get us short term overbought as well. But I'm not completely sold on the market falling apart here. It's a tough call but we are at the longer term weekly down trend lines. Fed on Wednesday and the employment report on Friday. There will be plenty of reasons to go one way or the other. Gold was up $5 today but the XAU dropped 2 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all down at least 1/2 on light volume. I still have an order in for some ABX calls but this doesn't feel like the greatest trade in the world either. However it is oversold short and medium term. Earnings out in a week but it might track the movement in the dollar more closely. It's never easy. GE was down about 20 cents on light volume. Nothing doing there. Mentally I did not sleep well and therefore was a bit tired today. I thought about getting the OEX puts when we were higher on light volume but did not. I am thinking that the ABX call trade could work so I left the open order in. But I'm not totally convinced one way or the other at the moment. And that could be a problem. So I'll go over things again tonight and take it from there.
Friday, April 25, 2008
Continuing higher despite MSFT. The Dow gained 43 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Medium term overbought and staying there at the moment. MSFT loses over 2 points and it doesn't faze the markets. The tone has changed. I'm not trusting the lighter volume here though. I thought perhaps yesterday was the day to get short and I was wrong again. Next week will tell the story with GDP, the Fed and the employment report. I'm leaning to the OEX puts but I'll have to let the market decide. Summation index still heading higher. Tough to fight that. Gold didn't do much today but the XAU rose 3 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all higher with NEM leading the way. That hasn't happened in a while and makes the rise suspect in my opinion. I'm still looking at the ABX calls, canceled my open order for the weekend. Will look to place it again on Monday. The dollar continued higher. GE was up 1/2 on average volume. Could bode well for the overall market going forward but who knows? Mentally I'm doing OK. We are still at the crossroads here. The market has the feel that it wants to go higher though. Sometimes it's all about money flow. A better dollar makes US stocks more attractive. Although oil was back up today any drop there makes stocks look better too. That said, getting short before the Fed is on my mind also. So there will be plenty to ponder over the weekend. Technically we are overbought but could remain there, or not. However it's Friday afternoon and time for a break. As usual I'll try and come up with a game plan for next week and take it from there.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
The Dow gained 85 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up about 170 at one point. A mid-range close heading down. We are medium term overbought here and a pullback should be expected. Today was perhaps the day to purchase some OEX puts. Also we're up against the weekly down trend line in the OEX. Premiums on the OEX options are still a bit high with so much time left for the May cycle. However there may be a divergence on the McClellan oscillator tonight. We'll see. Gold was hammered again, down another $20. The dollar had it's best day in quite some time. Oil was down as well. It is entirely possible that a bottom is in place for the dollar here for a while. Time will tell. The XAU lost 6 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all down on good volume. NEM reported good earnings and it didn't matter. I had an overnight order in for some ABX calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving the order open for tomorrow. Nobody wants gold at the moment. When nobody wants it, that's when I like to take a look at it. There is a buy signal for the gold shares here. That doesn't mean it will work right away but the odds tilt in your favor I believe. GE showed some life for a change and was up a buck during the day. It closed up 1/2 on good volume. Mentally I'm doing fine, slept well enough. Money moves around. It seems that it is moving out of bonds and into stocks recently. Perhaps starting to move out of oil and gold and into stocks. Perhaps moving from the euro to the dollar. These seem to be the short term themes I'm seeing at the moment. That said, MSFT disappointed after the bell and we should see a down day tomorrow, especially with an overbought medium term condition. Perhaps we've seen the highs of this move today but I'm not completely sold on that idea. We'll see what happens.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
A choppy day as the Dow opened higher, went lower, back up again and ended in the middle of the range. It was a gain of 43 points on OK volume. Advance/declines were positive. No good signal one way or the other here at the moment. I'm hoping we are building a top here but hope isn't something to trade on. So we'll see how it goes. Gold lost $17 today and the XAU dropped 6 1/2. ABX and GG both lost about 2 bucks. The volume was pretty good in ABX and it's breaking the 200 day moving average line. Not good signs for the bullish cause. That said, we are oversold there and getting a weak buy signal for the gold shares. I'm keeping an eye on it and might go long some ABX calls soon. Earnings are out in the May option cycle and they should be pretty good. NEM was down today also. GE was flat on average volume. Not really much going on there. Mentally I'm feeling OK, got a good nights sleep. We've got the Fed in a week and that can be a problem for the trading up until then. Perhaps we will just hang around until that's out of the way. Technically there isn't anything solid to go by at the moment in my opinion. I'd still like to see some type of light volume levitation and short things from there. Looks like Starbucks is lowering its forecast in the aftermarket, we'll see how that affects things tomorrow. Apple reports after the bell also. Patience for now.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
A downer on Wall Street today as the Dow lost 105 points. Volume was a little better, with the advance/declines over 2 to 1 negative. We were lower from the start and about off 170 at the days worst levels. Working off the overbought condition. Is it the beginning of the end? Not just yet in my opinion but I could be wrong. As I said yesterday, I'd like to see it build a top here before getting short. And even then it may not be the right scenario. I'm going to see how it plays out for now. Would like to see some momentum divergences but I'll have to be patient. Gold was up around $7 today but the XAU dropped 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all down a touch on light volume. What's going on here I wonder? Not usually a good sign when the gold shares don't follow the metal itself. The dollar was weaker again and oil hit another record high. However nobody was flocking to the gold shares. GE lost a bit on average volume. Not much going on there since it blew out the Friday before April expiration week. Mentally I'm a bit tired, not a good nights sleep. I'm going to try and be patient here, with the May option premiums still pretty high. We haven't broken out and we really haven't broken down from the moment of truth here. I'd like to see a lighter volume push to the upside here and get short then. But it's wishful thinking as the market will do what it wants. I suppose if ever there was a time to pay attention, it's now.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Starting the week off on a mixed note as the Dow lost about 24 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. The NASDAQ was higher. We sold off early and came back. The market seems as though it wants to go higher here. We are short term overbought and just about at the weekly down trend lines. I'll need to see some volume if we break the longer term down trend lines. Otherwise I'm looking at the OEX puts. We are at the beginning of the May option cycle. Not a lot of data out this week. It could be a wait and see approach for now. Fed is next week. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU lost a couple points. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower, with NEM off the most. Volume was light. The dollar lost some ground today but there wasn't any rally in the gold shares. GE was off 1/4 on light volume. Kind of a treading water day all the way around. Mentally I'm OK, didn't sleep all that good. We are at the point on the charts that is just about make or break time. I've been waiting for the indices to get to their respective down trend lines and they are there. What happens here will determine where we are going for the May option cycle. My ideal scenario would be to form some type of top over the next few days and then get short. But the market will do whatever it wants. I'll try and listen to what it tells us and act accordingly. Easier said than done. I've got some ideas about the Fed meeting but that's all they are, ideas. They aren't facts. So it's time to pay close attention, as always, to what's going on and take it from there.
Friday, April 18, 2008
A huge expiration Friday as the Dow gained 229 points. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive and the volume was good. So the question now is, is it for real or just expiration related? The summation index is trending higher. We don't have any negative divergences as yet. We are just about at the weekly down trend line in the indices and seem to be breaking through it on the Dow. I'll check things over the weekend. Earnings are beating the lowered estimates so far. There isn't a signal yet but we are getting short term overbought. Option premiums are expensive rolling into the May cycle. I'd like to give it time to build a little top but we'll see. Gold was down today on the stronger dollar. It lost over $25. The XAU didn't do so bad considering, only down 3 3/4. ABX and NEM were off over a buck and GG lost half of that. Don't exactly know what to make of that, perhaps influenced by the strong market up move. Not even close to a buy signal in the gold shares though. GE was up over 1/2 on good volume. Just a week ago the stock got clobbered and the overall market tanked. Now here we are with a great week in the averages for the bullish cause following that debacle. So it never gets easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. We aren't medium term overbought yet and I should probably wait for that before attempting the OEX puts. Fed meeting in a week and a half. There isn't any rush to do anything at the moment. The weekend is here and it's again time for a respite. I'll be checking the charts over the next 2 days and going from there. Right now it seems as though the market wants to go higher regardless. Time will tell.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
The Dow was basically flat on the day as it gained a point. Advance/declines were about even and the volume was average. It was a tight range for most of the day. There was a lot of volume in the OEX 630 calls, whatever that means. Google reported good earnings after the bell and is up 10%. We'll see if it carries over for tomorrow. No trades on the horizon. Gold lost 5 bucks today and the XAU lost 3 points. ABX, GG and NEM all lost some ground on light volume. Nothing doing there for now. GE lost a touch on good volume. The scenario remains the same. Patience until we get to the weekly down trend lines in the indices and go from there. Unless there is a decent signal, it's a waiting game. Mentally I feel OK, got some needed rest. Options expiration tomorrow. No need to take any unnecessary risks. We'll go on to next week and take it from there. The gold shares will be reporting earnings in the May cycle. That will have to be taken into consideration for any trades there. Bonds lost ground today and there is rumblings that the money from bonds will start to flow into stocks. That is possible and if it happens it could support the market here for a while. But one day doesn't make a trend, however it will be something to keep an eye on.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Well we got the anticipated good up day, with the Dow soaring 256 points. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive and the volume was good for a change. I dumped the OEX calls for a small loss on the first batch of 15% and a gain on the second batch of 180%. I could have done even better and showed a small profit on the first batch if I had held them longer. But you can always second guess the trades. Already after the market has closed, IBM has reported good earnings and the stock index futures are rallying. However with just 2 days left on the options I decided the risk wasn't worth it and locked in the gains. It was a mistake but you never know it at the time. You've gotta move on. Gold rallied 16% and the XAU jumped over 10 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over $2. The volume was good. There's another trade missed as there was a signal for gold a few weeks ago and I didn't follow it. The dollar was weaker today and oil was higher, both helping gold. Also ABX was medium term oversold and I should have picked up on that. It's never an easy game. GE was up 30 cents on good volume. Would have liked to see GE get more involved on a day the market rallies over 250. We could be in a base building mode there. Mentally I'm tired. Did not sleep much and the trading takes its toll, especially these short term attempts during options expiration week. Of course I am disappointed in not holding the OEX calls but what can you do? I think I was somewhat preoccupied with not having a losing trade for the year. Had I timed things better the results would have been stellar. Instead it's a matter of going on from here. I suppose I could have remembered that sometimes there is the positive bias for expiration week. I chose to limit the risk. There will be other trades down the road I suppose. We'll see where we end up tomorrow.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
The Dow managed a 60 point gain on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We opened strong and sold off to negative territory for much of the day. Came back in the final hour to finish where we did. It wasn't a 100 point up day as I was wrong once again. Oversold and staying there at the moment and that isn't positive. I must say that I am confused as to why we can't get the usual oversold bounce here. 3 days left on the option cycle. The first OEX calls are under water, not coming back and it's a cut the loss mode there. The second OEX calls purchased are in the black. Probably will dump them tomorrow if my brain is working properly. Lots of data tomorrow and the Fed minutes later in the day. I can't see how anything the Fed has to say will be viewed as positive at this point. Inflation was higher today with more due out at the open tomorrow. Some housing numbers too. So we'll see. Gold was up a few bucks and the XAU rose 2 points. GG continues to show relative strength among the group, up 1 1/4. ABX and NEM were both up fractionally. Light volume as has been the norm. GE was up 1/4 on good volume. It's still blown out but a bounce would be nice for those OEX calls. Wishful thinking there and that doesn't do anything. Mentally I'm doing OK. As I said, I can't figure out why we haven't gotten some type of oversold rally here. Short covering at the least. Perhaps we are going to be in trouble here soon, I don't know. There certainly hasn't been any volume lately and that is a lack of interest. The risk in the open positions I have at the moment is very high. I'll need to mitigate that tomorrow. So we'll see what happens.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Monday started us off with a loss of 23 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. The OEX calls I own lost more ground. Baring a miracle, that will be the first losing trade of the year. I bought some more OEX calls at a different strike price at the close. It is kind of the same trade really just better timing in my opinion. Unless the stock market completely collapses tomorrow, we will be higher. I will go out on a limb and say we are up at least 100 or more on the Dow tomorrow. We are both short and intermediate term oversold. It is one thing to say we will be higher and another to profit from it. Hence the purchase of more calls at the close today. We'll see. Gold was up a touch and so was the XAU. ABX and GG were higher, while NEM lost some ground. Volume was light again. The dollar rallied a bit overnight and then sold off during the day. There was a G-7 meeting over the weekend and they tried to talk up the dollar. I might try something for gold in the May option cycle. Haven't gotten a signal yet. GE was slightly lower on extremely heavy volume. It will sell itself out here eventually. A bounce here would certainly help the OEX. If I had been thinking properly, after the GE news on Friday, I would have waited to purchase the OEX calls. Hindsight is always right. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep that well. It was also extremely hot here over the weekend and today. It takes a bit out of you and can affect your concentration. Same for extreme cold I suppose. However the premise for the market here remains the same. A decent up day tomorrow and that will probably allow me to exit the calls. If not then there are worse things to come but I doubt it near term.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Well we did get weakness today as the Dow got clobbered, down 256 points on average volume lately. Advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative. Blame it on GE as it lost over 10% of its value in one day. Unheard of in the usual course of events. I did get some OEX calls but they're under water. This already has the feel of a trade that should have been avoided. We are going to get an up move in the next 2 days in my opinion. The trouble is that it's coming from much lower levels than I expected. A mistake basically and now it's a matter of managing the loss. Gold lost about $4, while the XAU was down over 4 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all down a buck or more on light volume. The interest in the gold shares just isn't what it used to be. I still am looking to get some calls if another signal appears. No hurry at this point. GE was the story of the day as it warned the earnings will be a few cents less then expected. For this transgression the stock was taken out and shot. A roughly 12.5% loss in one day on the heaviest volume that I have ever seen in the stock. The OEX won't get going unless GE has a bounce. Mentally I'm a bit tired as I didn't sleep as much as usual. I was early on the OEX calls and that could have been avoided. I think I was perhaps in a rush to put on the trade and I should have been patient. Getting OEX calls on Monday is really the trade to look at. Perhaps I'll give that a shot because I'm a believer that it will work. I'm going to have to collect my thoughts over the weekend and go from there. The closer to expiration the more important timing becomes. This is a scalp trade but I'm afraid this time the scalp is mine. But its Friday afternoon and time for a break. Check the charts over the weekend and see where we go on Monday.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
The Dow rose 55 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up over 100 at one point. Do I still want to buy weakness tomorrow? We'll see. Today makes things a bit more difficult. Monday is perhaps the optimum time to get long. But maybe not. And therein lies one of the problems of trading. You just never know for sure. We are medium term overbought here and that doesn't help the bullish cause. This is a scalp trade if it happens. I'll ponder it again tonight and go from there. Gold lost 5 bucks today and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had daily ranges of around a dollar but ended little changed. Volume wasn't much again. I'd like to get long here because I think the CPI next week is going to be strong. I don't think I'll be putting that trade on though. I'd really like to go out to May or June if we get a decent signal. I also think we just might move sideways for a while, like the overall market has lately. GE was up 1/3 on average volume. Perhaps that bodes well for the overall market but that's a guess. Mentally I feel OK. Just wondering if this OEX trade is going to be worth the mental capital. Again, the timing will be very important with only 6 days left on the option cycle. I still think we will get a decent up move between now and the close on Tuesday but I could be wrong. I suppose we'll see if there is weakness tomorrow and go from there. There is always the option of doing nothing. I still feel that shorting the OEX when it hits the weekly downtrend line will be a good trade when we get there. There's nothing wrong with patience.
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Another light volume day as the Dow dropped 49 points. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Going nowhere fast? I still need to see weakness into Friday to try this next trade. So far it's panning out but you never know. Will be getting OEX calls on weakness Friday if all goes according to plan. Gold had a good day, up about $20 as the dollar went lower and oil higher. The XAU rose 3 3/4. ABX and GG were up over a buck while NEM lagged, up just a touch. Volume wasn't what it used to be on the rallies. We'll see what happens with overseas interest rates tomorrow and go from there. My thinking is that we need to build more of a base here but I don't know. GE lost around 1/2 on light volume. No trades there. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Would like to get through tomorrows market action and concentrate on Friday for getting OEX calls. Of course I'm not 100% sure on any trade but I do believe that we will have some type of decent up move between now and the close on Tuesday. I could be wrong. Timing as always will be the key. This isn't a trade to hold forever, it's a get in, make your profit and get out. I'd like to see us flat to down tomorrow and go from there. Wishful thinking. I've been patient thus far, so waiting another day is the idea. We'll see.
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
The Dow lost 36 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were down from the start but it wasn't much compared to last month. We are working off the overbought condition. There isn't much interest one way or the other at the moment or so it seems. My idea for now is to let it pull back and if it does, get some OEX calls on Friday for expiration week. That's the scenario at the moment in my mind. Gold was off $8 and the XAU lost 2 points. ABX and GG each lost a buck while NEM had a slight gain. Volume was light here as well. I'm going to see if we work our way back to the 170 level on the XAU and take it from there. ABX is medium tern oversold but I am in no hurry at the moment. GE dropped 1/4 on light volume as well. No trades there in the near future as far as I can tell. But you never know. Mentally I'm feeling fine, got a good nights sleep. 8 days until the April cycle ends. I'm thinking weakness into Friday, get long and sell out after Tuesday of next week. Now if it all plays out like that, it will be a first. Volatility has slowed quite a bit from last month. I don't think there is any rush to put a trade on here but I would like to make some money. If things go the way I anticipate, I think it's going to be a good trade. But then, when don't you think that? Summation index still pointing higher. A lot of data out next week so for now it's sit tight and see what happens.
Monday, April 07, 2008
Interesting Monday as we were up 100 but the Dow closed ahead only 3 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The NASDAQ was down but the S&P 500 was up. We are moving towards medium term overbought and I would not be surprised to see some downside action. I was hoping we could hold on until Wednesday and then get short but the market isn't waiting around for me so it seems. I don't think it would the beginning of an extended decline just yet. If we can somehow manage to rally tomorrow and Wednesday, I'll be getting some OEX puts. But that remains to be seen. Gold was up around $13 today but the XAU was flat. The XAU followed the market higher and then sold off as well. ABX was up a bit, GG was flat and NEM lost some ground. The volume was light here as well. The interest in the gold shares has waned and the buy signal is over. The dollar was higher today and gold still rallied perhaps following oil as well. I think it will sell off after the ECB meeting on Thursday but that's a guess. GE was off 1/4 on light volume. No trades there. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept good enough. Not a lot of data out this week but earnings season begins with AA tonight. I can't see how earnings will be all that great for a lot of companies with higher costs and lower spending in numerous areas. But what do I know? The street can read the numbers any way they'd like. Anyway, sticking with the plan, if and when we get to the weekly downtrend line in the OEX I'll be looking to get short. Until then patience is required and it's a waiting game.
Friday, April 04, 2008
We were down early, then up and down again. Not like the previous month, with 100-200 point moves but up and down nonetheless. The Dow lost 16 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The employment report was weak, we sold off and then came back. We are getting closer to the weekly down trend line but aren't there yet. 2 weeks on the April option cycle. I'm leaning towards the short side if we get a decent signal and it could happen next week. But that could change. Gold didn't do much, up around $3 but it is rallying in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 3 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher but the volume was light. GG gained almost a buck. The dollar was weaker but we didn't get the big move in the gold shares as we have in the past. I'd still like to get long ABX at some point for the May cycle. However the European Central Bank meets next week and if they lower interest rates it may boost the dollar sending gold lower. But it's all just a guess at this point. GE lost 1/4 on light volume. Light volume was the theme for the day really as nobody is stepping up to buy or sell here in a big way. Sideways is the rule for now. Mentally I'm not feeling 100%. Slept OK. Not much else to say here. It's been a waiting game for the weekly down trend line to come into play and the waiting continues. Earnings begin next week and we'll see how that turns out. Not a lot of economic data coming out next week. And so it goes. I'll check the charts over the weekend and take it from there.
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Kind of a waiting game today as the Dow gained 20 points. Volume slowed from yesterday and the advance/declines were positive. We're moving towards short term overbought. Waiting for the employment report basically. Don't know how that will shake out but I can't expect it shows a lot of employment gains. We'll see. Gold was up $9 and the XAU added a buck. ABX and GG both lost a bit of ground while NEM was unchanged. Volume was lighter. The dollar didn't do much, waiting for tomorrow. The gold shares are oversold but we have just about worked off the buy signal. I wouldn't be surprised on way or the other with tomorrows action but I remain on the sidelines there. GE lost 1/4 on light volume. This issue seems to be in a solid up trend at the moment. The declines are small on light volume and then we pick up on the upside. But we all know that could change. However the trend there is up and we'll see if the overall market can follow. Mentally I'm a bit tired as I did not sleep well and am not feeling 100% today. Trading takes a lot of stamina and energy when your money is on the line. You have to be up for it. There is no getting around that. Mentally and physically you have to give it everything you can. There is no halfway in this game. If you're not up for the challenge, wait until you are.
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
A slight pullback today as the Dow lost 45 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. I'm still sticking with the sideways to up scenario. My guess is that it's a waiting game for the employment report on Friday. We'll go from there. Gold was up $12 and is rallying in the aftermarket. The XAU rose 7 1/2. ABX and GG were up around $2 and NEM gained 1 1/2. The volume was good. The buy signal seemed to be working today. I think we have established a line in the sand with the XAU at 170. We've bounced off of that level twice. If we meander back to that level, I'll be getting some gold share calls. It might be too late. The dollar was weaker and gold seems to be tracking that pretty closely lately. So we'll see. GE was off 1/2 on lighter volume. No trades there. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep all that well. Not all that excited about the April option cycle at this point. I don't see any clear signals at the moment. It seems like we will try and reach the weekly down trend line for the OEX at 650. That's how it feels right now. Summation index moving higher and the market isn't getting a sustained rally yet. I would like to get short the next time it rolls over but that could be a while. For now I'll just have to sit tight and keep an eye on things.
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
It was a very positive day for the markets as the Dow rose 391 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive. Beginning of the month and quarter money being put to work? Rotation out of bonds and commodities? Short covering? Pick what you'd like. Bad news from UBS and the market shrugged it off. Summation index still heading higher and after today with some gusto. The market is trying to move out of the sideways range to the upside. I still think the moment of truth is at the weekly down trend line and the Dow is almost there. If GE is any indication, that down trend line will be broken to the upside. GE was up another 1 1/3 today on good volume. It has been one hell of a move there in the past month. This isn't your typical move in GE and I think it bears watching for the overall market. Gold got clobbered today, off over $30 and closing below the $900 level. The dollar was stronger. The XAU lost almost 4 points which wasn't that bad, considering. ABX and GG both lost more than a buck on good volume. NEM was only off a half but it's already blown out to the downside and below the 200 day moving average on a daily basis. Still a buy signal here for the gold shares but it isn't working. I will get some ABX calls sooner or later though. I mean who knows, a weak employment report will have dollar dropping again most likely. However I'm remaining patient there at the moment. Mentally I feel OK, got a good nights sleep. Interesting day today as we've seen some incredible rallies in the past 3 weeks. None of them have led to a sustained multi-week upside move as yet. Will this one be different? That is the question. However when the market rallies in the face of bad news, you've got to pay attention. We'll see what tomorrow brings.