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Tuesday, April 15, 2008

The Dow managed a 60 point gain on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We opened strong and sold off to negative territory for much of the day. Came back in the final hour to finish where we did. It wasn't a 100 point up day as I was wrong once again. Oversold and staying there at the moment and that isn't positive. I must say that I am confused as to why we can't get the usual oversold bounce here. 3 days left on the option cycle. The first OEX calls are under water, not coming back and it's a cut the loss mode there. The second OEX calls purchased are in the black. Probably will dump them tomorrow if my brain is working properly. Lots of data tomorrow and the Fed minutes later in the day. I can't see how anything the Fed has to say will be viewed as positive at this point. Inflation was higher today with more due out at the open tomorrow. Some housing numbers too. So we'll see. Gold was up a few bucks and the XAU rose 2 points. GG continues to show relative strength among the group, up 1 1/4. ABX and NEM were both up fractionally. Light volume as has been the norm. GE was up 1/4 on good volume. It's still blown out but a bounce would be nice for those OEX calls. Wishful thinking there and that doesn't do anything. Mentally I'm doing OK. As I said, I can't figure out why we haven't gotten some type of oversold rally here. Short covering at the least. Perhaps we are going to be in trouble here soon, I don't know. There certainly hasn't been any volume lately and that is a lack of interest. The risk in the open positions I have at the moment is very high. I'll need to mitigate that tomorrow. So we'll see what happens.

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