Monday, April 07, 2008
Interesting Monday as we were up 100 but the Dow closed ahead only 3 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. The NASDAQ was down but the S&P 500 was up. We are moving towards medium term overbought and I would not be surprised to see some downside action. I was hoping we could hold on until Wednesday and then get short but the market isn't waiting around for me so it seems. I don't think it would the beginning of an extended decline just yet. If we can somehow manage to rally tomorrow and Wednesday, I'll be getting some OEX puts. But that remains to be seen. Gold was up around $13 today but the XAU was flat. The XAU followed the market higher and then sold off as well. ABX was up a bit, GG was flat and NEM lost some ground. The volume was light here as well. The interest in the gold shares has waned and the buy signal is over. The dollar was higher today and gold still rallied perhaps following oil as well. I think it will sell off after the ECB meeting on Thursday but that's a guess. GE was off 1/4 on light volume. No trades there. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept good enough. Not a lot of data out this week but earnings season begins with AA tonight. I can't see how earnings will be all that great for a lot of companies with higher costs and lower spending in numerous areas. But what do I know? The street can read the numbers any way they'd like. Anyway, sticking with the plan, if and when we get to the weekly downtrend line in the OEX I'll be looking to get short. Until then patience is required and it's a waiting game.