Wednesday, November 30, 2005
The Dow slumped today, losing 82 points. Volume was average and the advance/declines were slightly negative. The market just could not get going anywhere but down. I bought some OEX calls. Could have gotten a better price but what else is new? I was surprised that they held up as well as they did because obviously I'm early. But I think it will work and I'll be waiting for Friday and the unemployment report. Getting short term oversold but not exactly there yet. We'll see what happens. I was so focused on this OEX trade I did not notice GE until the close and it was down. Might do something there too but I don't want to go crazy. Like I said before, sometimes December is pretty bad too. Gold lost some ground today and the XAU was down over 2 and a half points. I'm still looking at the Januarys but that is a long way off from here. I need to check the charts again on that. I'm thinking today could have been some end of the month lock-in the profit mode. Not sure. Still feeling as if money will come in to support the upside. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing fine, not trying to second guess my entry as of yet. But I still feel like I could have done better. Over two weeks left in this option cycle and anything can happen. But I can't expect things to be like last month can I? Perhaps we will re-challenge the highs on lower technicals. That's what I'm thinking...
Tuesday, November 29, 2005
The Dow lost a couple points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. The market was higher earlier and gave it all back. I'm still looking to buy some calls if and when we get to the uptrendline. Could be tomorrow. I'll try and be ready. If we break the line, well we'll have to see what happens. Summation index still pointing higher. Gold was about unchanged and the XAU fell a bit. I would like to stay clear here but again, I'm not exactly sure about what course of action I will take. Gold is overbought and broke a sort-term uptrend line today. I'm still going to look at the January 120 calls. We need a pullback though. GE was basically unchanged and I'd like to get some calls when it gets to the trendline. So the gameplan for now seems to be to wait for trendlines to be hit. Mentally I'm feeling good and seem to have an idea of what I want to do here. Gotta follow through and pay attention. Discipline is always a key. Employment report on Friday, could be a mover. Looking forward to the next trade. That's what winning can do for you. Put you in the right frame of mind.
Monday, November 28, 2005
The Dow was off 40 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. I do want to get some OEX calls but I want to try and be patient and wait for it to get back to the trendline. We'll see. I think there could be some more weakness later in the week but that is just a guess. Gold was up today to go over $500 for the first time in a long time. The XAU was down a bit however. Everybody is talking about gold and that worries me. Usually whenever the mainstream gets a hold of something it is over. I do want to get the January XAU 120's but I will not chase it here if I can help it. Tough call. We are way overbought and have been. I don't really want to do it now but we'll see. GE was down and it has a gap to fill but I'm not so sure here either because it too is overbought. Might do something for December but I haven't made up my mind. Very iffy prognosis for now but what can ya do? Mentally feeling good and there should not be anything in the way of progress at this point. That could change and usually does...
Wednesday, November 23, 2005
The Dow tacked on another 44 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Gotta get a pullback here. Everybody was bullish on CNBC today. I'll wait for a short term buy signal if one ever presents itself. GE was down a touch and might try that again too. The XAU lost over 2 points as gold was down. Not sure about this. Could be that the run for now is over but I might get long when the overbought condition is mitigated. I don't want to get ahead of myself here and will try and remain patient. I've seen some bad Decembers in my time also but this time I think we need to continue higher for the year ending in 5. I've harped on that all year but there is a reason. The reason is because it works until proven otherwise and right now it looks like it will work again. Mentally I'm tired, physically too because I did not get much sleep last night. Thanksgiving tomorrow and a needed day off. Light day Friday and I won't pay much attention. Monday should be the day back for everyone. Still looking to add to my gains this year. But I wouldn't call it a good year. Much to many mistakes for this to be considered good. More like lucky in a lot of cases. Need to improve and I will. Time to rest...
Tuesday, November 22, 2005
The Dow up another 50 points or so today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. Not seeing any pullback to get long. Way overbought and the positive holiday trend is upon us. I'll look for an opening but I'm leary of anything at this point. GE was down a few cents but the options didn't lose much value. Might want to play this again. Gold was up another $4 and the XAU gained a point. This thing is going parabolic and I am afraid to get long here but it looks like it could go on forever. It never does. I'll have to fight myself on this one. I'd like to get in another good trade before the end of the year as my confidence has returned. Mentally I'm doing better but I did have a tooth pulled today so I'm not at my best. Got some sleep last night and will do so again tonight. The markets should slow down the next 2 days with a shortened session on Friday. Thursday off for Thanksgiving. I'll wait for some weakness before committing to the next trade. I should really try and take it easy for the next few days and I will while looking forward to next week and the beginning of December. Gameplan to get long GE and the OEX on weakness. I'll try and stay away from gold. At least that is the thought for now. Could change at any time.
Monday, November 21, 2005
The Dow rose over 50 points on positive advance/declines. Volume was light but it is a holiday week. I took today semi-off as I wasn't home as usual. The market is still way overbought but it just doesn't sell off. When and if it does I will get long again. Same thing for gold and the XAU. They just keep going up. Technicals are overbought and overblown. I want to get long but don't know when this runaway train will stop. I still feel that there is more to go though. Feeling tired tonight and am having a tooth pulled tomorrow so that's it for today.
Friday, November 18, 2005
The Dow was up 46 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. It was a frustrating day. Most of that gain came in the last 15 minutes. A miracle did happen though. GE announced it was selling off one of their units and the stock soared on heavy volume. My options, that I almost sold for a nickel the day before, ended up with a 100% gain. Fluke. And even then is wasn't very good because I left another 30% on the table. But that was sheer luck to be able to even get my money back there. It still doesn't make up for selling the NEM calls but what can ya do? My OEX calls were not a great story either. They took off at the open and I should have just dumped them. I then had to torture myself all day as they fell and moved sideways. They always had a profit but the movement was killing me. I haven't traded the OEX lately and especially on an expiration day. They ended up showing a nice profit but that just isn't good enough. Between 450% and 500%. But I left at least another 120% on the table. Unacceptable. I had held them all day and another half an hour shouldn't have made a difference. It's the difference between an OK trade and a good one. I am disappointed with my actions today even though there were profits. My trading just has to improve. I should have had a gameplan of some sorts. I went in cold and that wasn't good. I also don't even know if I should have done this OEX trade but I went with my gut. Still, the results were lacking. I really need to get back on track. My focus is better but it just doesn't feel as if I'm doing the right things. My discipline is gone and I really need that. I am not happy with todays results. It could have been a really great week. I've blown a lot of opportunities this year. It could have been a banner year. Time to regroup and I think I'll be taking it easy next week, Thanksgiving holiday.
Thursday, November 17, 2005
The Dow rose 45 points today on OK volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. Almost at a breakout but the volume isn't great. One day left on the options. GE actually got a nickel bid at the end of the day as the market rallied. I'm hoping, which is stupid, that tomorrow morning is to the upside and I will sell at whatever I can. The OEX rose 4 points and the calls I bought are in the black. That could all change tomorrow at the opening. The risk is crazy and so is the trade but I went with my gut. We'll see. Gold was up another $7 dollars which is incredible. The XAU only rose a point and a half but the volume was good. I really blew that one. Hard to have confidence with trades like that. So we'll see what tomorrow brings. The market is overbought and staying there. There could be some expiration shenanigans. Anything could happen. I'm hoping for a squeeze and a breakout to the upside. If that happens tomorrows blog will be on a happy note. If it doesn't, more of the same. My ideas have been good but my tactics and timing have been horrible. Mentally, I'm about spent but I will do what it takes tomorrow to insure success, if it's possible...
Wednesday, November 16, 2005
The Dow lost 11 points with negative advance/declines. Volume was average. GE got a bid again but I did not sell. I still think we could advance here and I bought some OEX calls. It could be a crazy move but I have seen some crazy things today. I know that yesterday I said I would take it easy but I am a trader. GE could get a bid again. Or not. Gold soared today. I am kicking myself for not waiting another day. We got the biggest move I've seen yet. Up about $10 on gold and the XAU rose over 6 points on heavy, heavy volume. NEM was up $3, which I have not seen before. The calls I sold at a 90% loss yesterday are a 90% gain today. You just don't see things like that happen. You can't plan for it so I'm not beating myself up too bad. But we were at the weekly trend line again and it more than held. I will get long at that trendline until it breaks. We are overbought there also but simply remaining so. That's where you get some big moves and we are seeing that now. The OEX trade is highly risky with 2 days to go but perhaps a shorter timeframe will work in my favor. Oversold on a 15 minute basis and we'll see about tomorrow. Or it could blow out and I'll lose some more money. Not a lot of cash in this trade and I've got a gameplan. That gold move still blows me away. It looks like we will bust through the resistance and who knows where we are headed then? All this with the dollar stronger just doesn't make sense. But that's the market for ya.
Tuesday, November 15, 2005
The market was down around 10 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We were lower and came back a bit. We were also higher and sold off a lot. GE was unchanged and the calls I own don't have a bid with 3 days left and will be a total loss at this point. Great trading. Gold didn't do much but the XAU sold off 2 points and I dumped the NEM calls I had for about a 90% loss before I couldn't sell them at all. That was a stupid trade and never had a chance. I paid for it. That will not come back in 3 days. The volume has dried up there also which I should have recognized but didn't and so it goes. My confidence is shot. I haven't had a decent trade in a while and that could be it for me until next year. Yes, I know it is only the middle of November but I have got to get my mind back on track. The focus and discipline are missing. I think it is time to take a step back and I should have done it a few months ago. You just can't fool yourself in this game. Right now I don't have what it takes to be successful. I need to regroup I think. I do have some thoughts and ideas about where we go from here but... I can't go on losing money and that's the bottom line. I'm going to have to sit down and go over what has taken place in the last few months and go from there. Changes must be made. I think I have taken on too many trades. The commissions are eating into the bottom line also. I need a new strategy, with less trading and better trades. Easier said than done...
Monday, November 14, 2005
The Dow went up another 11 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. Not a good sign if you're long. GE was down and the options are almost worthless again. For some reason I still believe we could have a good run up into the expiration taking GE along with it. I must be crazy. Gold was down a little and the XAU lost almost a point and a half. NEM was down and the options I own are worth half of what I paid for them. Trouble. 4 days left and it will take somewhat of a miracle here. I haven't completely given up on them because I've seen some strange things happen expiration week. But I also know NEM could just move sideways here and that would kill me. The weekly has a good look to it but that doesn't necessarily mean this week. Tomorrow will be important for both issues. Mentally I'm fine, gotta lot of rest last night. No other trades for this week in my mind at the moment but that could change. I'm leaning towards the plus side. Inflation reports this week. I'm thinking they will be weak and the dollar will fall, supporting gold and driving the market higher. Could be wishful thinking. We'll see...
Friday, November 11, 2005
The Dow was up 45 points on holiday light volume. Advance/declines were positive. GE was up a few cents on light volume. The RSI on GE is near the top of the range and it is also up against the Bollinger band. The 50-day moving average looms at $35 also. Tough call. One week and I do not want it to expire worthless on me. That said, I think we will rally at some point next week. Gotta hope GE goes along with it. Not sure and don't like relying on hope. Gold was up over a dollar today but the XAU rallied over 3 points on light volume. NEM was higher but my calls are still losers. And there-in lies the rub. Overall the gold shares are higher but my particular one hasn't moved enough to show a profit. Should I have just stuck to the XAU, even though it is tougher to get filled on the orders because of the Philly Exchange? Hard to say. It is frustrating at times but I guess you've got to go with the vehicle that gives you a better chance for success. I notice the time premium is coming out of the XAU options rather fast with a week to go. That is another thing to take into consideration. NEM good still turn out to be a good trade. We'll see next week. I need to rest up now because it will be hectic next week before the slowness of Thanksgiving week sets in. The money to be made must be made next week.
Thursday, November 10, 2005
The Dow rose 93 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. You just can't keep this market down at this point. That said, we are way overbought and a pause is in order. GE rose big on good volume and there is a bid to my calls again. Nothing short of a miracle really. Six days left and maybe they can even get into the money. Not totally blown out to the upside on GE but you never know. Gold did not do much today even though the trade deficit hit a monthly record. The XAU opened higher and then closed off over a point and that isn't good. The NEM calls I bought yesterday have lost half their value. Tomorrow is important for the XAU to bounce back. If it doesn't then I'm dead with these and it just goes to show you that you NEVER chase a move. It just doesn't pay off enough. I should know this by now. Once in a while it will work but it usually doesn't. You get what you deserve sometimes. The XAU uptrend line continues to hold though so we shall see. I'm not feeling good about it though. It is a tough, unforgiving game but the rewards are sweet if you can make them happen. Mentally I'm trying to keep it together as usual. Feeling a bit tired but there is still a week to go in the cycle. Never did get a chance to get some OEX calls. We are up against a downtrend line that is quite a few weeks old. If we somehow get through it in the next few days those GE calls might actually work. Remains to be seen. Bond market closed tomorrow but we do need a rest. We'll see...
Wednesday, November 09, 2005
The Dow was up 6 points today on light volume again. Advance/declines were slightly positive. We were up much higher and sold off at the end of the day. No trades here. Gold was up $5 and the XAU rose over 3 points. I tried to buy some calls on the XAU 4 times but never got filled. The uptrend line is holding and it looks like I have missed out on the XAU trade. The calls I sold earlier in the XAU and NEM are both much higher. I could not wait around when I sold them and that is part of the game. Well actually they are not much higher in NEM and I bought them again at a higher price near the close. My thought is that the gold shares will rally here into the expiration off of that trendline. We shall see. I wanted to be long something because I think this is the first day of the move. I don't know. My trading hasn't been sharp lately and it is very frustrating. It is my own fault. I am not putting forth the proper effort. There are no excuses. I just haven't gotten it together and I'm not paying attention the way I know I should and the way that is necessary for success. No excuses. GE was up a bit but there is still no bid on the calls and they are dead. I might get lucky again and get a nickel for them if someone needs to offset a trade the other way. Doubtful. So we will see what the trade number does and I really need to be better at what I am doing or I may as well not do it. It is a most difficult game and the effort has gotta be there or it's useless. I know this and will have to do my best to remember that.
Tuesday, November 08, 2005
The Dow lost 46 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. This si a market that wants to go higher, I think. I would like to get long any weakness. I think Thursday could be the day. We shall see. The GE calls have no bid now and that looks like a total loss. Perhaps if we get a rally I can get a nickle for them but that trade just never worked. I have been wrong on GE all year. It's not a lot of money but it is a loser none the less. Gold was up a couple bucks today and the XAU was down fractionally. There is no volume here and the interest has waned with the rise in the dollar. We haven't broken the uptrend line yet and are sitting right on it. The trade number comes out on Thursday and I will possibly buy some calls tomorrow if the trendline holds up tomorrow. It is an iffy play here but it could work. I'm not sure what I am going to do. No blog yesterday as I left at the close to take another hike. And that too could be a problem because I've got to pay attention with just a week and a half left before expiration. Sometimes the balance of the market and the rest of your life becomes uneven. Right now the market must take preference. The time is now, one way or the other. I've got tohave the discipline to do what must be done here and now. It is the only way. OEX calls are a good idea I think. We'll see if I get a chance. XAU calls are not as certain, I don't think but I might give them a try anyway. Until next time...
Friday, November 04, 2005
The Dow was up 8 points on light volume. We are perhaps running out of steam here. Advance/declines were negative. GE was up a few cents but the options are dead in the water. Gold was down another 4 bucks today. The XAU was lower but came back to be off a half a point. The uptrend line continues to hold and I would like to buy the calls again. It had every right and reason to break the line today and it didn't. I think this is bullish for the XAU. If we get some weakness on Monday back towards the line I will buy some calls. NEM was higher but those options are still less than what I paid for them. But I'm out of that trade. Volume on the gold shares was light but the volume on the XAU was quite a lot and I will check Monday to see if the open interest expanded. I think it did so something is up. There are 2 weeks to go and I think this will work. That is why I originally bought them. But I could be wrong as gold has broken the support at $460. Perhaps it is a fake out move, I don't know. I need to check the economic calendar also. Employment came out weaker but the dollar still rallied and that hurt gold. Yields are up also which is impacting gold. We'll see what happens. I'd still like to get long the OEX but we're overbought and I want to wait for some type of pullback. Mentally I need some rest as the trading is taking a lot out of me. The focus is returning but the discipline really needs to be worked on. There is money to be made in the next 2 weeks. I need to pay attention and take my shots. Patience is needed also which makes this such a tough game. I'll try my best and hopefully will succeed. I need to rest and check all the charts over the weekend and that's what I will do...
Thursday, November 03, 2005
The Dow tacked on another 50 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were about even. We might be running out of steam here on a short term basis. We are right at the uptrend line though and that could hold for a while. Obviously I'm stuck without a clue. GE was up a bit but is not moving with the market so I will get screwed there. Gold was down 4 bucks and the XAU broke its short term trendline so I bailed out. I'm not happy. I would have liked to have the guts to hang on here but I couldn't. The volume wasn't there. I would still buy this back on more weakness and I will. The XAU calls showed a small profit, perhaps 30%. I dumped the NEM calls at the same time for a small loss, around 20%. There was less money in the NEM trade so it was minimal. I won't be buying this strike price back. So I'm stuck with a losing GE trade and am looking for a long entry on the OEX. Mentally I'm a bit confused but my overall thought was to bail out and wait to trade another day. I'm in need of a good nights rest and that should happen tonight. My trading is going nowhere at the time. I'm not pleased. The focus is coming back but the discipline is just not there. I've really got to get together. But it isn't easy. Tough game. Employment report tomorrow and it should be a mover one way or another. Until then....
Wednesday, November 02, 2005
The Dow gained 66 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We are going higher. The summation index has turned upwards. I will buy some OEX calls on any pullback, It will work. GE was up just a bit today and that isn't good for my options. I really need to see GE get going here. I don't think this trade will work. Gold bounced back $4 today and the XAU was up 2 points. But the volume was weak and we have stalled at a downtrend line. I need to see us get through this line on good volume to feel good about this. NEM was up a bit on light volume. That is the key. Volume. We really need it to pick up here for gold or this trade will be a loser. Employment number on Friday and that could hold the key.
Tuesday, November 01, 2005
The Dow was down 33 points on good volume again. Advance/declines were negative. The Fed raised rates another 1/4 point. It was expected. I want to get long the OEX here but I'd like to wait a bit I guess. I think we'll see weakness going into the employment number on Friday. But I'm guessing. GE keeps dropping and soon there won't even be a bid on what I own. Another mistake. Gold went down another 4 bucks today and the XAU was off a couple points. We are at the moment of truth again for the gold shares and I'm not feeling good about it. I did buy some NEM November calls today because we are right at the trendline there also. The uptrend lines either hold or they don't and if they don't I'm out. With losses of course but you've got to take the risk when you feel it's right. Gold itself is at $460 and if it doesn't hold, I'm dead. This is where it has held before so we will see what happens. I'm not feeling all that confident though. And perhaps I've got too much money wrapped up in this gold idea. Time will tell. The fact that GE isn't working either could spell disaster for me. But there are 2 and a half weeks to go. I think now it's a waiting game until Friday so we will see. Mentally I'm not putting forth the effort necessary for success. It is plain and simple. Sacrifice must be made to be on top of things and I haven't been doing that lately. The blue book must be read every day and I haven't been doing it. My discipline is non-existent. I can't go on like this and have to get it together now. It is hard to do and my mind is just not into it. But it has to be. It is the only way. I need to shape up right now or I'm doomed. The effort must come back. The dedication and desire have to return or it's all over. We'll see what tomorrow brings...