Tuesday, February 28, 2017
Well we couldn't make it to thirteen days in a row as the Dow fell 25 points on good volume to close out the month. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. This should turn the summation index lower. The overall market was weaker then the Dow. The market will move tomorrow off of what Trump says tonight. Event driven markets are sometimes hard to figure. That would be the case right now. We are still overbought regardless. The VIX has risen here and we are overdue for some decline or a pause sideways at the least. I'm still waiting for the negative divergence at this point. GE was off 1/8 and volume picked up. Gold continued to fall as the futures lost 10 bucks. The US dollar was flat once again but the daily candlestick chart looks like it has 3 bullish hammers. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on good volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We'll get the beginning of March tomorrow and there could be some positive money flows. However the overriding theme of the day will be Trumps plans to Congress and the markets reaction to them. We are long overdue for a pullback, so keep that in mind. I'm staying on the sidelines for now but do anticipate some kind of SPY trade in the March option cycle. Europe and Asia were mostly higher last night. We'll get Trumps speech out of the way and see what happens tomorrow.
Monday, February 27, 2017
Let's make it a dozen as the Dow rose for the twelfth day in a row. It gained 15 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving up. The extreme overbought condition remains. I'm having trouble remembering anything like this in recent history. I won't try and step in front of this but I do still like the SPY March puts at some point. I'll continue to wait for some kind of negative divergence. We've got a Trump speech tomorrow night and that should get things moving one way or the other. The employment report is delayed a week for some reason so we won't have that to trade off of. GE was down 1/4 on light volume. The short term indicators are starting to roll over here. Gold reversed during the session and the futures fell $6. The dollar was flat. The gold shares had one day reversals to the down side. The XAU lost 4 1/8, while GDX shed 1 1/3. Volume was heavy. Perhaps gold knows something that we don't. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Still trying to remain patient here as we hit new all time highs every day. No overhead resistance either. I really don't know how long that this can last but it's usually much longer than you think. I do think that longer term we are in the last leg up for this lengthy bull market of 8 years. How far the leg goes is the question. or I could be wrong and we have much higher to go but I really don't think so. Straight lines up never end well. But there is no telling how long that line can be. We'll get the end of the month tomorrow and another look at GDP. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll finish up the February trading tomorrow.
Friday, February 24, 2017
The Dow winning streak remains alive but barely. We opened with a gap lower and thanks to a final hour rally the most watched index managed a gain of 11 points on good volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is still trending higher but not with any conviction. The overall market was stronger than the Dow though. We still remain overbought but that hasn't mattered for weeks. I'm still in the camp that is calling for some type of pause here. There's no overhead resistance but when you just go straight up in a line it never ends well. I'm still looking at the SPY March puts. GE was up over 1/8 and is overbought on some of the short term technical indicators. Gold rose $7 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well. The XAU shed a point, while GDX lost 1/4. Volume was light. Getting to oversold for the gold shares but not there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Just how high will we go here is the question and I certainly don't have the answer. It has been quite the rally since the election and we are in the leg up that began at the beginning of February. I'm still trying to remain patient for some kind of signal. A negative divergence would be the optimum one for me. We did get a signal for a decent price move in the next couple of days from the McClellan oscillator yesterday but it doesn't specify the direction. Plenty of time left in the March option cycle with 3 weeks to go. End of the month next week and plenty of economic data as well. Plus a Trump speech to Congress. So there will be plenty of reasons for the markets to move. I'm going to have to look things over again the weekend and try to come up with some kind of game plan. Plenty to ponder. Europe and Asia were both lower overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, February 23, 2017
The rally lives on as the Dow rose 34 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. The broken record of new high after new high for the Dow continues. Overbought now for weeks but no decline in sight. I'm not really sure what to say here. I would like to think that we are closer to the top than to a bottom. And I do think that. But trying to guess the top is a losers game. I'm going to wait for some type of negative divergence and go from there. Hasn't happened yet. We did get weakness in the TRAN and the smaller stocks today. So perhaps a top is near. GE was down a few cents but did come off of its lows. Volume was average. Gold found a bid as the futures rose $15. The US dollar was weaker. The XAU and GDX were little changed. It isn't a plus when gold rallies and the gold shares do not follow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The Dow has been up ten days in a row. This isn't your normal market activity. At this rate we'll tack on 1000 points in less than a month. So I would certainly be careful about getting long here and really would not consider it. I think the next trade for me will be the SPY March puts. Perhaps we'll see a blow off top and then I would feel confident about getting short. But until we see some kind of signal, the sidelines are the place for me at the moment. Europe and Asia were lower overnight but not by much. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, February 22, 2017
The overall market lagged but the Dow managed a gain of 32 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The same technical conditions remain. We are over extended any way you look at it. The Dow has gone about straight up for two weeks. There is no telling how long this can last but when the end comes it probably won't be pretty. We are already in one of the longest bull markets in history. I can also make a case for this being the last leg up of an A-B-C-E-F pattern or a 5 wave higher move on a multi-year basis. If that is the case, then this is the final run higher before a bear market sets in. However that is the bigger picture and we are looking at what to trade in the March option cycle. GE was off about 20 cents on average volume. I'm no longer considering a trade here. Gold finished flat one the session as the US dollar was just a bit lower. The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed about 1/3. Volume picked up to the downside which is not a good sign for the bulls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We saw just a bit of weakness here and there among the major stock indices. I would like to get some SPY March puts at some point. However it is hard to try and step in front of this runaway freight train of higher prices. What I really need to do is try and wait for a negative divergence in the technical indicators. The battle as always is with myself. Is it possible that things will run up into the March expiration as happened in February? Well anything is possible at this point. Another factor to consider is that the VIX is not correlating to the actual price movement lately. I don't know exactly what that means but it is puzzling at the moment. So I will continue to be patient for now as it is a short week as well. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, February 21, 2017
The rally lives on as the Dow rose another 119 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues higher. Overbought to the extreme at this point. Some of the indicators have the highest readings in the past 5 years. That doesn't mean that the rally will end right away but some type of pause is way overdue. As I said before it is probably best to wait for some type of negative divergence on the technical indicators. I am looking at the SPY March puts. Trying to be patient though. GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was a little better. Gold was off just a bit as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. I still believe that the fundamentals do not favor gold at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We've rolled into the next option cycle and the market continues to defy gravity. There isn't a lot of economic data out this week. The VIX has been rising and so has the market. That defies the usual logic. What I can say that with the overbought condition that we are seeing today, we're closer to a top than to a bottom. Once again I am hearing the term animal spirits in the financial media. I do not know who makes this stuff up but it is completely ridiculous. There are no sellers. Money continues to pour into stocks. Animal spirits? That is complete fabrication. Do not get sucked into the rally at this point. There will be better entry points down the road in my opinion. For now I'll wait for the negative divergence and try and be patient. Europe and Asia were generally higher last night. We'll keep an eye on things overnight.
Friday, February 17, 2017
The beat goes on as the Dow rose 4 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The summation index is still trending higher. Quite a week we just saw as the market is severely overbought and needs to take some kind of break in my opinion. The breadth on the rise hasn't been good and I really do not think that this levitation has much more room on the upside for now. Some type of consolidation or decline is way overdue. I'll wait for the next signal before entering the next trade. A negative divergence at some point would be the ideal scenario. GE was off a few cents on lighter volume. Gold was off around $5 on the futures as the US dollar bounced back. The XAU lost 1 7/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was a little less than average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A losing trade this week with mistakes both getting in and getting out. Not much money lost but the mental capital decline is always more important. I suppose that perhaps I'll just stay away from the short term trades for now. Looking back on the radar, there is no denying that this has been quite a nice move higher in the past couple of weeks. The market was able to run up all the way to the end of expiration week. There were no sellers. The problem for the bulls going forward is the extreme overbought nature of things today and the poor breadth that accompanied this move higher. That doesn't mean that we can't go a bit higher in the near term. However a repeat of the roughly 500 or so point move in the Dow for the past week and a half probably won't be repeated. I'll be looking at the SPY March puts at some point in the coming days. Money is flowing into US assets though as the major foreign markets have yet to break out above their near term resistance. Asia was lower overnight and Europe mixed. A long holiday weekend is upon us and that will give me plenty of time to come up with some type of game plan for the next trade. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, February 16, 2017
A pause in the run up as the Dow gained 7 points today on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The summation index is still moving up. We were negative for much of the session. I sold my SPY February puts for a 65% loss. My exit today was horrible as well. I could have cut the loss at least in half had I better tactics. But it was not to be as this trade was a disaster from the beginning. A day early on the entry and it never recovered. The short term trades are just not in my wheel house so it seems. We're still very overbought any way you look at it and some decline or consolidation is in order. I'll be looking out to the March option cycle. GE was up a dime and the volume was light. Another missed trade here for me. Gold added $7 on the futures as the US dollar was lower today. The XAU rose a point and GDX gained 1/4 on light volume. Mentally I'm feeling disappointed after another losing trade. Nobody to blame but myself there as the risk was pretty high due to the lack of time remaining. I should have just passed. Once again I think that leaving all the money on the table in the previous trade influenced what I did there. You can't let that happen in the game. But you move on. The next trade in my mind will be the SPY puts again but the timing will have to be spot on. Perhaps waiting for a negative divergence in the indicators would be the best idea for now. We have had quite a straight line up and that will not last. It should end sooner rather than later. Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
Overbought to the extreme at this point as the Dow climbed 107 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The positive expiration week bias is in full effect and there is still no overhead resistance as we continue to hit new all time highs day after day. My SPY February puts are losers and I'll be lucky to get out tomorrow without any further damage. This was a trade that in retrospect was best let undone. Not a lot of money but not a low risk trade either. We are powering ahead like a freight train and you should not try and step in front of that. There will be better opportunities down the road. Selling the SPY calls too early was my biggest mistake though. GE was up a few cents on lighter volume. Gold rose $8 on the futures as the US dollar was lower. The XAU was off 7/8, with GDX unchanged. Volume was very light. Not a positive for gold to rise and the gold shares lag. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The market continues to soar as the shorts get squeezed and there are no sellers. This should continue into Friday I expect. After that I would think that things would settle down as the breadth on the rise hasn't been good at all. You cannot argue with price though. Taking a losing trade here will not help my confidence level but the trading will go on. Perhaps I should simply forget about the short term trades since they really are not what I'm successful with. I think that my wrong tactics on the SPY February call trade contributed to me trying this other SPY put trade. The battle in this game seems to always be with oneself. As I've said before the markets can be irrational longer than most can remain solvent. 2 days left in the February option cycle and a long weekend on the way as well. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. However none can match the gains in the US stock market lately. We'll probably continue the overbought ride higher tomorrow.
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
The rally moves on as the Dow gained 92 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving up. Overbought, staying that way and no overhead resistance. We also closed on the high of the session and that's bullish. I did buy some SPY February puts today and they are already in the red. I may be a day early on this trade but there isn't any room for error with only 3 days to go in the February option cycle. So we'll see what happens. We'll get plenty of economic data to trade off of tomorrow. Yellen spoke today and the market shrugged. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good. We now have GE and the market moving in tandem and that is a positive as well. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher as well. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There appears to be no stopping this market as we are setting new all time highs session after session. Why try the SPY puts here then? I am getting a signal to get short here. I do not think that it is the beginning of a huge move down but the indicators do say that we'll see something to the downside and soon. I'm trying not to be subjective and taking the signals as they come. I do think that perhaps I want to put on another trade after selling out the SPY February calls way too soon. That is my risk here. There is not a lot of money in this trade so to me it was worth taking a shot. You should go with the signals when they occur but yes, you can use your own discretion. It would not be a surprise if we're higher tomorrow but this certainly won't last in a straight line up much longer. Enjoy the ride if you're long. Asia was lower and Europe mixed last night. The moves were slight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
Monday, February 13, 2017
Powering higher to begin expiration week as the Dow was up 142 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. Overbought on all time frames now and the next logical trade would be the SPY puts. The timing is the issue as usual because things can stay overbought for quite a while. That is the dilemma we face at the moment. My thinking is that the SPY February puts will be a winning trade at some point this week. Trying to determine when will be the task. GE was up 1/3 on good volume and it appears that the call trade here has been missed. Maybe we could try it if we get a retest of the recent low. But I think the opportune time has passed. Gold fell $10 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Stocks are in rally mode as there is no overhead resistance. The questions that remain is just how high will they go and how long can this last. Usually higher and longer than you think. Only 4 days to go in the February option cycle but I do think that pursuing an option trade on the put side will work at some point this week. Every time frame is overextended to the upside for the S&P. I may leave an open order in overnight. This would be an extremely short term trade and that is usually not my best scenario. Not to mention that I just left an awful lot of money on the table with my last trade. I have got to make sure that the SPY February put trade is actually worth taking the risk and not just something to try and get back the missed money. I don't expect the market to just turn around and start to head convincingly lower but I do expect some kind of short term weakness going forward. Could we just keep moving higher for the remainder of the week? We could but the odds suggest something lower at some point this week. Europe and Asia were higher in overnight trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Friday, February 10, 2017
Continuing higher to finish the trading week as the Dow added 96 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. Short term overbought remains the condition for the Dow and the S&P. Looking back it would have been better for me to let the SPY February call trade go another day. That is money left on the table. Expiration week is upon us and the usual positive bias could be in effect since there really is no overhead resistance here. However we are due for some type of pause and I'll consider the SPY February puts for a short term trade on Monday. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. I'll also considering the March calls here but this issue has been a laggard lately. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher today. The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GDX added 3/8. Volume was average. The gold shares have moved higher since the middle of December but there doesn't seem to be any conviction to the move in my opinion. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Kicking myself for not holding on to the SPY call trade another day will get me nowhere. There was a case to be made for hanging on another day but I took the profit instead. Holding on could have doubled the gain if the exit was right today. The thing about this game is that you've got to keep moving on regardless. With a week to go in the February option cycle, any trade from here will have even more risk than usual. The case can be made for some weakness early next week. However we've seen in the past that the market can remain overbought for quite some time. If the usual positive expiration bias shows up next week, the extended overbought condition will remain. I'll have to check the technicals over the weekend and decide from there. Timing. as usual, will be the key. Europe and Asia were positive overnight. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, February 09, 2017
Finally the breakout to the upside that we've been waiting for as the Dow rose 118 points on average volume. The advance/declines were just shy of 2 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index back up. I do think that we could see another day of upside but I had to simply sell my position in the SPY February calls today. I did not want to take the risk of a down open in the morning and then lose some of the todays profit. My exit wasn't great but the trade did manage a 55% gain. We did come off of the highs for the session in the final hour. I'm still overall positive on things here but we may have to see some downside first before moving higher again. GE was up over 1/8 on light volume. Gold lost $7 on the futures as the US dollar was stronger on the day. The XAU lost 2 3/4, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume was good. The gold shares are due for a rest. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It was nice to see the work pay off today but I do think that perhaps I could have held on for another day. We're still short term overbought on the technical indicators for the S&P 500. I think that if we can get the RUT and NYA to break through resistance that this thing could have legs. But it hasn't happened yet. I expect some weakness in the coming days and I do not know if there will be another set up before expiration. I am still of the thought that the market will be moving higher in the medium term. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, February 08, 2017
Another day of listless trading as the Dow fell 35 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending sideways. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The market is still trying to make up its mind what to do here. I did expect strength here and we did not see any. When the market doesn't do what you expect you have to sit up and take notice. Perhaps my view on things is wrong here and the resistance won't get broken. My SPY February calls are still in the red. This is a trade that needs to be exited by the close on Friday. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. GE did break to a fresh low today. Gold was up a buck on the futures and the US dollar was little changed. The XAU rose 1 3/8, while GSX added 1/4. Volume was light. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not much else to say here as we are in a market waiting game. That doesn't bode well for directional option trading. I still think that this SPY trade can at least get back to break even if we see some rally in the next couple of days. The trouble is that the longer we go sideways, the more time premium that gets sucked out of this trade. There are only seven days left in the February option cycle. So we'll see. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on what transpires tonight.
Tuesday, February 07, 2017
Another day of basically going nowhere as the Dow added 37 points on a little less than average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending sideways. The S&P is trying to break out to new highs but with no success. I do think that it is going to happen though and sooner rather than later. I did purchase some SPY February calls today. They are showing a slight loss. My entry could have been a lot better but I do think that this is a trade that will work. GE was off a dime and the volume was light. Short term oversold for GE and if it can finally get going to the upside, that would bode well for the overall market. Gold had a slight gain on the futures despite strength in the US dollar again. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. I'm not exactly 100% recovered from my recent cold. So the next trade is on and it is one that probably shouldn't be held for too long. In this case, that means getting out before the weekend. Right now Thursday looks to be the day to sell. But we'll have to see how it goes tomorrow. We're still short term overbought for the S&P 500 but I think we'll stay that way. I could be wrong. I do expect some upside for this index tomorrow. How much is the question. As I have said before, there is no resistance once we pass the 2300 barrier. If we can get by there on good volume, the trade will work. Asia was slightly lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
Monday, February 06, 2017
A quiet start to the week and we were lower for all of the session. The Dow fell 19 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. This may put the summation index back in a sideways trend. There was no follow through to the positive action on Friday and that could be a concern. I do expect some strength here in the very near term and did place an order for the SPY February calls but wasn't filled again. If there is weakness tomorrow, I'll probably try this trade idea again. We are more overbought than oversold at this juncture though. The potential set up is still there but it isn't as strong as it was last week. GE was off a few cents and the volume remains light here as well. I'm laying off the call trade there for now. Gold continues to hold traders interest as the futures rose $15 despite a rose in the US dollar. The XAU was higher by 3 1/4, while GDX added 7/8. Volume was good. I still think that the fundamentals for gold a re negative though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Less than 2 weeks to go in the February option cycle. I'm looking at a very short term trade for the SPY this week. If we are lower at some point tomorrow, I will probably give it a try. Timing, as usual, is everything. Not a lot of data to trade off of this week so we will have to see what happens. February isn't a seasonally good time for stocks either. But my work is showing that getting long on weakness tomorrow might work for a couple of days. So we'll see. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
Friday, February 03, 2017
A nice rally today to end the week as the Dow soared 186 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index will be moving back to the upside. The employment report was better than expected on some counts and we took off from the open. I'm still considering the SPY February calls because if the S&P 500 can get through 2300, there is no overhead resistance. I still believe that declines can be bought but the best opportunity passed yesterday in my mind. If we can get some decline on Monday, that might be the time to take another stab at that trade. However we will be getting short term overbought here in a hurry. GE was up a couple cents on average volume but continues to lag. GE is out of sync with the overall market. Either the market is ahead of itself or GE needs to play catch up as the overall rally continues. The technical indicators are oversold on the short term and mid-range medium term for GE. Perhaps I should try a trade here. Gold was up a couple bucks despite the decent jobs report. The US dollar again finished little changed. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. Mentally I'm feeling a bit better but not all the way back yet from having a cold. I'm trying not to let yesterdays failed attempt at the SPY calls bother me too much. The basic idea was a correct one and that is a plus. If I am reading things here correctly, then I think we've got more room to go higher in the February option cycle. I can make a case for higher prices into the close on the upcoming Wednesday of next week. However after that, I'm not so sure. So for the short term the plan is to buy on weakness if we get any Monday and then sell out by the close on Wednesday. The market rarely cooperates though. I'll be taking a look at GE over the weekend as well. Perhaps the March calls will be the play. Plenty to ponder in the next couple of days. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher overnight. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
Thursday, February 02, 2017
Another lackluster trading session as the Dow fell 6 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. I once again tried to get the SPY February calls but my order wasn't filled despite adjusting it a couple of times. Perhaps I should have just tried a market order but you know what happens when you do that. I'm still a believer in this trade so we'll have to see what happens with the market reaction to the employment report tomorrow. The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 remain at mid-range. GE was off a couple cents and the volume was really light. Gold rallied $10 on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed. The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was light. Mentally I'm still not at 100% as I am getting over a cold. Perhaps that is why I could not think straight when trying to get my order for the SPY calls filled. With each passing day this is a trade that I want to do. The set up on one of my indicators is indicating a buy signal for the market. If we open lower tomorrow I may get the chance. If not it will most likely be too late for this idea. At this point the best thing for me to do is to get some rest and see what happens in the morning. Europe and Asia were generally lower last night. We'll finish out the trading week tomorrow as all eyes will be on the jobs numbers.
Wednesday, February 01, 2017
Another day of hanging around to begin the month as the Dow added 26 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The NASDAQ continues to out perform and things remain bullish in my mind as long as that is the case. The summation index is trending lower but by no means does it look like a rout. I did place an order for the SPY February calls but it wasn't filled. I'll need to be in this trade before the close on Monday for it to work. The ideal scenario would be more of the same listless market lack of activity going into there. We'll see if the market cooperates. GE was off a penny on light volume. The potential double bottom is still in place. Gold was off a touch as the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU and GDX ended the day little changed. Volume was around average. Mentally I'm tired and not feeling well. It's hard to trade under these conditions but luckily I already have an idea of what I want to do. The Fed came and went. The next event will be the employment report on Friday. I may leave in an open order for the SPY calls overnight as I need to rest in the morning. Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trading. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.