Dow up 50 points today on a little more volume then late but nothing heavy. Advance/declines almost 2 to 1 positive. The market was weaker most of the day and started to turn around in the last couple of hours. Economic news was weak. Gold was up a little which was encouraging. The XAU was almost up 2 points while NEM and ABX each gained over 50 cents. Volume was light though so I don't read much into it. My ABX calls are showing a profit again. The US dollar was weak and if that keeps up, the calls should work. Looked at GE when it was weaker this morning but did not purchase any calls. Hard to trade the overall market with such light volume but who knows? Something may happen tradewise there this week. Just gonna have to wait for fridays employment data and take it from there I suppose.
Monday, August 30, 2004
Dow down 72 points on extremely light volume. Advance/declines negative. Could be a very slow week, volumewise. Gold was up over 3 bucks. But the XAU, NEM and ABX were all down and fell hard into the close. That is not a good sign. My ABX calls are now losers and if the action going forward is anything like today, they are toast. There are a little less than 3 weeks remaining. I'll hold them here and wait for the employment report on friday. Not a lot of news and not much market interest due to the Republican convention. I suppose in hindsight I should have just let this week pass.
Friday, August 27, 2004
Dow up 20 points with advance/declines over 2 to 1 positive. However as has been the case lately the volume was pathetically weak. Even lighter than it has been. Which, for me, calls this whole rally into question. We are at resistance on the Dow at 10200. I don't see a lot of upside from here without some kind of pullback. Gold was down over $4, to the 402-403 area which is support. It must hold around this level or lower prices are in order. Even with gold down the XAU was up a point. That is bullish in my opinion for the gold shares. ABX was up 30 cents on decent volume but NEM was up a few cents on light volume. I am still holding on to the higher gold price scenario. Perhaps this week was the pullback to the downtrend line we broke through last week. We'll find out with next weeks action. Predictions are for a slow market with not much participation due to the Republican convention in New York. Time will tell. There is the employment report on friday. I'm still thinking about a trade in GE down the road here and I'd like to pick up some NEM calls also. Summer is winding down and things should get more interesting in the weeks ahead.
Thursday, August 26, 2004
The site is having difficulties today. I'll make it brief. Dow barely moved, down 8 today. Volume extremely light. Gold was off a dollar, the XAU down around a half, both NEM and ABX down some. Light volume with the exception of ABX. The volume there was better than average and to the downside. I'm not liking that. The calls I own are right where I purchased them. If we keep the lackluster action of late up, the time premium will erode and this will be a losing position. Until tomorrow...
Wednesday, August 25, 2004
The market moved higher today, the Dow up 83 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The volume picked up a little but is still very light. Gold moved up 5 dollars. The XAU was up 2 1/2 points, NEM up over a dollar and ABX tacked on 40 cents. Volume wasn't all that strong though. I think we'll move sideways here for a while and then hopefully resume the uptrend. The ABX calls I bought yesterday are showing a small profit. GE was up a small amount and I am looking to buy some calls but GE isn't really following the overall uptrend here. That makes me wary of this move, plus the fact that the volume is light. Sidelines for now. These seem like the dog days of trading. No volume, not a lot of news, traders on vacation. But you've got to pay attention and you've got to stick with it. You've got to stay motivated and you cannot forget your mission. Timing, focus and desire have to stay true. It will pay off in the long run.
Tuesday, August 24, 2004
Another nothing day in the stock market. The Dow was up 27 points on light volume. Slightly positive advance/declines. I can't say that there is anything to move the market at this point. I now own some ABX September calls. My order got filled during the morning, unfortunately I now believe I am way early in purchasing these. The indicators aren't fully oversold. It looks like that there could be an inverted head and shoulders pattern on the US dollar here also, daily basis. I probably should have canceled the order earlier. I still think the trade will work but the entry may have been able to be done at a better level. We shall see. Gold itself got hammered today, down over 7 dollars. However the XAU was only off a couple points while NEM lost around 80 cents and ABX dropped about a quarter. Volume did pick up to the downside though, not a good sign. However with gold down so much these issues should have been clobbered, yet they hung in there pretty good. I'm still of the belief that this is a snapback to the downtrend line that was broken. Trading is never easy. End of summer here and there seems to be no interest in the markets. The Republican convention is in New York next week and there is talk of even lighter volume then due to the logistics. Things should pick up after Labor Day. Perhaps I should have had the patience to wait. There are always other trades though...
Monday, August 23, 2004
The Dow was down 37 points on extremely light volume. Advance/declines were negative. A slight pullback here should be expected. I'm still getting a buy signal from the put/call ratio though. As for the 10-day trin, it's overbought. Mixed signals for sure but I think we will work higher in the coming weeks. I'm looking at GE calls as a proxy for the market. Gold was down 2 1/2 today. The XAU was off a couple points. NEM and ABX were both down but not a lot. Volume here was light also on the pullback. I have an order in for some ABX calls. I think gold is going higher. It broke through the recent downtrend line on increased volume. The next expectation is a snapback to the line broken. I believe that is what is happening now. I will be looking to get some NEM calls also. If any trade is going to work, long gold at this point should. There are no guarantees but this set-up seems to be going the way it should for now. I don't want to get too overconfident but I believe this one is legit. We shall see. Beginning of a new option cycle so there is no rush but I don't want to be left behind again either. The overall market, the OEX and GE is a tougher call. Time will tell. Not much data this week. 2 weeks until Labor day. Might be quiet until then, with the employment report due out the friday before.
Friday, August 20, 2004
Dow up another 70 points. Advance/declines almost 3 to 1 positive. The only thing missing was volume, which wasn't anything great. There was volume in gold though as this market has taken off. Without me I might add. The XAU was up 1.80, NEM up 44 cents and gold itself gained over 6 dollars. I will get long on any pullback and I am expecting one because the technicals on a daily basis are blown out to the upside. But again, you never know. It could just go straight up. I'm hoping it doesn't. But with the volume this strong there is no doubt that the move in gold is for real and has legs. I'll look to purchase September and October calls. As for the overall market I'm not as sure. I'm still leaning upside but with not as much conviction until I see some volume. I do still like the strong beginning of September and a weak second half of that month. But it's a guess. Options have expired for August and it's time to move on.
Thursday, August 19, 2004
The Dow was down a little over 40 points today. Advance/declines were negative but not bad. Volume was below average again. Oil shot up around a buck fifty. The Leading Indicators were negative for the second month in a row. Gold was up around 2 1/2 but the gold stocks took off. The XAU had its best day in weeks up over 3 points. NEM was up a buck eighty. Volume on all the gold issues was heavy. It is for real, I believe. The NEM options that I sold for a loss a couple weeks ago would have quintupled if I had held on to them. I can only hope that we get a snapback to the downtrend lines that have been broken on most issues. Short-term the gold stocks are overbought but longer term they are not. I am thinking of going out to the October calls on some issues. But I really need to see some pullback. That may not happen. Yes, I'm disappointed but at the same time I do not want to get too discouraged because this could be the start of a multi-week up move. The stock market looks like it wants to go higher also. Some of my indicators point to this. Perhaps the beginning of September will be strong and the second half of the month weak as I have seen in the past. I will look to buy some GE calls for september as a proxy for the overall market. Perhaps some OEX calls if my timing can get untracked. It is painful to be on the sidelines but what can I say? I'll look towards the future and try to do a better job...
Wednesday, August 18, 2004
Dow up 110 points. Advance/declines more than 3 to 1 positive. Volume nothing special but you can't argue with the price action. Gold was flat but the XAU and NEM were both up again although not a lot. The expiration rise for gold stocks continues this month yet again. Oil was up but it didn't affect the stock market today. The next question will be, is the rally for real or just a bounce? It's had everything but volume so far. It is important to find the answer to this question because it will affect the trading going forward. It appears that we are about to break a weekly downtrend line on the OEX here. Other technicals point to a bottom here. I'll be leaning bullish unless something changes that view. No trades with 2 days before expiration. Looking out to September and October.
Tuesday, August 17, 2004
Dow up 18 points, volume light. Advance/declines positive. Market was up higher earlier. Lots of data to digest. No inflation on the consumer level and strong numbers housing and manufacturing wise. McClellan oscillator has turned positive. I think as far as the OEX is concerned right now, the risks outweigh the rewards. Gold was up a buck fifty. The XAU opened lower came back and was up a tad at the close. NEM was down a few cents. Although overbought, this market seems like it wants to go higher as it has into the expiration the last 3 months. I will have to wait it out. Could be missing the next upleg there though. Can't chase it here. It won't be easy but the sidelines are probably the best place for me at the moment. Will fight myself not to buy some puts before the leading indicators on thursday. Not much else for today.
Monday, August 16, 2004
I put in an order sunday night for some OEX calls. It did not get filled. The Dow was up about 130 points today. Advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. Volume was monday light. Gold was up another $4. NEM was up over a dollar and the XAU was up almost 2 points and closed on the high. It broke through the downtrend line. And I am left sitting here with no positions in anything. It isn't an enviable position to be in. 4 days until option expiration and the risk factor only goes up from here. I suppose I will have to wait for the XAU to fall back to the line it just broke. There is no guarantee that that will happen. There is a possible short play in the OEX before thursdays report on the leading economic indicators. But I don't know if it's worth the risk. Or if I can time it properly, or if it will even happen. And so it goes. I don't know what to say. It is just a very, very tough game. You have to somehow move on from losses and missed opportunities as best you can. It's difficult for me. The trades are out there. But you've got to really be in tune. You have got to be ahead of the game. I think it can be done if you pay attention and outwork the crowd. But who has that kind of commitment? Winners, that's who. This game isn't for the lazy. It's a pro's game. If you don't approach it as such don't even think you'll be successful. Because you won't. I now have to patiently wait for another opportunity to present itself. It won't be easy...
Saturday, August 14, 2004
Checking the charts last night, I see a trade in the OEX is warranted. This will be a short term trade, no more than 3 days beginning monday. Calls will be purchased. The OEX stands at around 520 and I will attempt to buy the 525 calls. There are positive divergences on the McClellan oscillator and the RSI. I think a bounce will be in order but only a short lived one. I'll place an order tomorrow night when I see where the futures are. This is a quick trade for there are only 5 days remaining on the options. If a 100% gain is attained, I should get out. It all sounds good in theory, it always does. It looks like it's worth the risk though.
Friday, August 13, 2004
The Dow was up 10 points today on light volume with slightly positive advance/declines. Oil hit a new all-time high. Gold was up around $5 and the XAU was up over 2 points. NEM was only up around 75 cents and the volume wasn't that great. But it looks like the XAU is about to take out a downtrend line that is weeks in the making. Technicals are overbought there though. Will wait to see what happens next week at this point. No conviction for an OEX trade however it looks like some calls might work here. I had to battle myself all day not to buy something before the weekend. If we get a drop in the price of oil, I can see a decent rally taking place. But it's guesswork with no clear signals. The dollar was weaker on trade numbers. Perhaps the decline in the dollar is ready to begin in earnest again setting up a long gold trade. But I don't know. Will check the charts over the weekend. I would like to take on some type of trade for next week. But sometimes no trade is a good trade. Do I sound confused? Sure and I need to sort things out. Will attempt that this weekend and get my mind back into the trade mentality. It's not something that I can turn on and off. Indecision is a killer and it has me in its grips as you can tell by the postings. I'll do what I can...
Thursday, August 12, 2004
Dow down again, this time 123 points. Advance/declines fairly negative and a little pick-up in volume. Closed on the low. I'd like to think a bottom of some sorts is near, we are in an area of support at 520 on the OEX. But I don't really know so no trades there for now. Gold didn't do much today, the dollar was a bit weaker. The XAU was up a tad, NEM was down a tad. Treading water there and I have no clear signal but I'm hoping for a sell-off to the weekly uptrend line for a spot to get long. My analysis at this point on things is wishy-washy probably as a result of the recent losses. I have put that behind me and am trying to move forward. However with no conviction on direction, it's probably best for me to sit it out at this juncture and wait for a decent signal. That is what I am trying to do. There are always opportunities but I don't seem to see any at the moment. Trading is not easy. This much we all know. Controlling oneself is even harder but I'm giving it my best shot.
Wednesday, August 11, 2004
The market was down big early but came back all day to be down only 6 points at the close. Volume picked up a little and the advance/declines were negative. The SPX and OEX were down more, relative to the Dow. Mixed at best. Gold lost over $4 but NEM held up pretty good. The XAU was down a point and a half. Interesting. No trades for me at this juncture but I'm looking. Perhaps a clear signal will emerge before option expiration next week. Seems like after today the Dow wants to go higher. But it's a crapshoot right now and perhaps the best course of action is inaction.
Tuesday, August 10, 2004
The Fed raised the funds rate 1/4 point as expected and the market rallied. The Dow was up 130 points with good advance/declines. The volume was average or a little less. The McClellan oscillator signaled a big move last night and it happened. We now have a bullish divergence on that indicator. No trades for me here. GE didn't rally as much as the overall market. Could have been some short covering in the market today. Gold did not do much prior to the Fed announcement but the XAU and NEM were up modestly. After the Fed, gold sold off a couple bucks. The XAU and NEM came well off their highs and look like they are poised to go lower. The dollar didn't do much either. See ya tomorrow...
Monday, August 09, 2004
Tried to rally today but ended up unchanged. Volume was light, advance/declines were slightly negative and the new lows expanded to over 600. Would like to get long here for a bounce but the action today implies lower prices. The Fed meets tomorrow. A 1/4 point increase in fed funds is expected. Gold was up a buck, the XAU was down a little and NEM didn't move much. The dollar was basically unchanged. I suppose you could say the markets were in a holding pattern waiting for tomorrow. I have no clear trades on my horizon after last weeks losses. I am hoping gold makes it back down to the weekly uptrend line to initiate a position there. The OEX is oversold but not looking good on the charts. Guess I'll sit on the sidelines unless some kind of inspiration occurs...
Friday, August 06, 2004
Interesting day. The employment report came out very weak. The dollar tanked and gold soared, up $7. The XAU is up over 2 points and NEM, which I sold the calls yesterday, is up over $2. Bad move. The options I had more than doubled. But I don't have them, I took a loss. The calls I do have on ABX didn't move because ABX is up less than 20 cents. And so it goes. I just dumped the ABX calls for a loss of around 70%. If they aren't going to move up when gold is up $7, when are they going to move? They're not. That was a dumb trade all the way around. I basically screwed up the gold trades. When you screw up, it costs you money. I'm back in the red for the year. Market is closing now. Dow dropped around 150 points. Over 300 points in 2 days. I didn't buy any OEX puts and I lost money in gold even though I was long and it went up. Well, I suppose it can't get any worse. I now have no positions and it's the weekend. 2 weeks left on the August options but right now I'm in a trading funk. I suppose I'll have to battle myself to not do something stupid in the near future. Fed meeting on tuesday, that will be the focus of early next week. Not much else for me to say right now after blowing it. I just didn't have what it takes this time around. Really need to listen to that inner voice of reason more often. Might get back here this weekend but I doubt it...
Thursday, August 05, 2004
The market got slammed today. Dow down 163 points. Advance/declines heavily negative with a pick-up in volume. Obviously purchasing OEX puts yesterday would have been prudent. But I was too busy watching gold and losing money. Gold did not move today but the XAU and NEM were sold off. ABX also. Near the close I dumped the NEM calls I had for a loss. At one point these had a 100% gain and I held on for a 30% loss. Foolish. Looking back I suppose a stop order would have been smart but that's something I should have learned by now. Disheartening for certain, especially when I should have been concentrating on the OEX. I still have the ABX calls. I bought them cheap and now they're only worth a nickel. Unless there is a complete turn around tomorrow these will be a 80% to 90% loss. I didn't have a lot of money in them but once again it just doesn't pay to chase a move. The candlestick pattern did not pan out in this case. The employment number will be the focus tomorrow, I have no clue as to what it might be. Oil is hitting record highs and is the excuse being used to explain the downside. I suppose I will wait for the XAU to move back down to its long term weekly trendline at 80 and try some calls again down there. Or perhaps I will forget about it and concentrate on the overall market. Either way, losses are part of the game and I will try not to get down on myself. Nobody can be right all the time but I sure could have traded these positions a lot better than I did...
Wednesday, August 04, 2004
15 minutes to go and I knew I was in trouble with gold yesterday. Gold was only down a couple bucks today but the XAU and NEM are both down over a buck. The technicals are rolling over. The NEM options are right back where I bought them and the ABX options are showing a loss. Why keep holding them at this point? Why indeed? The only thing they have got going for them is time. At this point the only scenario that will make this work is a low employment number on friday followed by a Fed meeting with no rate increase. Can it happen? Maybe, but I sure don't know. The Dow sold off early and has come all the way back to positive territory. It has the action of a market that wants to go up. I'm laying off the puts today but that doesn't mean that I won't buy some tomorrow. Advance/declines have turned positive. Volume looks like it has picked up a little on the rise. Perhaps a weak employment report would give the markets hope for no rate increase. Again, that's just a guess. The dollar is a little stronger today, however to me it looks like it is topping out here, short term. Advance/declines now back to even. I suppose I'll wait for the employment report. It has been a while since I've had a trade move against me. Somehow, I've got to battle myself into doing the prudent thing. It's tough. There will always be other trades. But it doesn't feel like that when you're in them. Market now moving to flat on the day. XAU near its low of the day. More tomorrow...
Tuesday, August 03, 2004
The Dow was off around 60 points today. I guess it's not going to wait for me. Advance/declines were negative but not bad for a market down 60. Volume picked up a touch. If we get some gain in the next 2 days I might possibly get short. But it looks to be too late. Gold was up a couple bucks today. However the XAU rallied and sold off hard. It was up a few cents. NEM was actually down a little and ABX was up a tad. I don't like the action. I think I probably should have sold out today. We are up against some resistance in the XAU, the volume was light and it got turned back. We are approaching or are at overbought in the gold stocks. I would like to see the resistance broken on heavy volume but that scenario doesn't look probable at this time. These options do have over 2 weeks left though and that may work in my favor. Trading is a difficult task to undertake. Today is a reminder of that. I don't have a good feel for fridays number but I still think the Fed may do nothing next week. I don't know. Tomorrow is another day but I'm not feeling positive at this point. Perhaps something will happen overnight. Perhaps not...
Monday, August 02, 2004
I purchased some more gold calls today. Barrick Gold, ABX, the August 20's. I put an order in overnight and it got filled. Probably shouldn't have bought them. There was a terror alert on sunday and gold rallied. I didn't think the order would get filled but gold did nothing today and the price of ABX went nowhere so I got them. The action on the XAU wasn't promising either. Opened strong, sold off, came back and sold off again into the close. Not good action considering the news. The NEM calls are still showing a profit but it was off a few cents today. The technicals are looking like they want to roll over and that's not positive. The only plus was that the volume was low. The Dow was up 40 points today. Advance/declines were positive but the volume was low again. We are now overbought. I would like to buy some OEX puts. I think the ideal time would be on wednesday, if it stays up that long. I'll need to check the charts. The employment report is on friday. I do not have a good read on this report like I did on the GDP. I don't know what to expect. The Fed meets in a week and I'd like to say I think there is a chance they will stand pat and not raise rates. The dollar was a little weaker today. As for the market, perhaps today was a function of the beginning of the month money flowing in from the insurance companies and the funds. I'm not sure. It had every reason to sell off and it didn't. That's a positive. However I think the downside will resume here soon. Summation index is turning up, so I don't want to be too sure of myself. And I am already trading the gold which is getting me worried. You have to take chances in the game but you need to be smart about your chances. ABX did have a bullish engulfing pattern on its daily chart and that influenced me as well. We'll see what happens. I'll check the charts and determine if an OEX trade is warranted. Until tomorrow...