Thursday, April 30, 2009
We opened higher and closed lower today for a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow lost 17 points. We were up over 100 at one point. Volume was average while the advance/declines were positive. So we are hanging around waiting for the next catalyst. We're overbought at this point so I think the next sustained move will be down. That doesn't mean we can't wander up into the May expiration. What it does mean is that it might be a tough game to trade the index options going into that. We'll see. Gold lost $10 today and the XAU dropped 2 1/2. ABX and NEM lost 1/2 while GG dropped over 3/4. Volume was light as usual. The GG calls are fading fast. Oversold though but will the bounce, if we get one here, be enough? No reason to own gold now really. NEM earnings were OK but no rally in the stock. So why bother to wait for GGs earnings? So it could be time to cut the loss and focus my attention elsewhere. Mentally I'm doing OK. Not enjoying sitting in a losing trade but what can you do? We'll see how it goes tomorrow and take it from there.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Back to the upside as the Dow gained 168 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Summation index is still to the upside. GDP worse than expected and the market shrugs it off. Fed announcement, nothing new. You cannot argue with price and volume. So perhaps we will run up into the May expiration. But you know, tomorrows another story. Gold gained $7 today but the XAU could only manage 3 1/4 points. ABX, GG and NEM all up around 1/2. Volume light as usual. ABX missed on its earnings but it was a non event. The gold shares are overbought now and they haven't moved enough to make the GG calls profitable. Still in the red there and this sideways movement is sucking out the time premium. I'm going to have to think about where to take the loss at this point. NEM earnings tomorrow. Will they lift the gold shares? There just isn't any volume here. I certainly don't want to wait for the GG earnings next week if we don't see any upside by the end of this week. It is never easy but this trade looks dead. Mentally I'm a bit tired. Did not sleep as long as I would have preferred. So we got through with the Fed and what is next? Waiting for the employment report in over a week? I don't see any catalysts from here one way or the other. On we go.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
The market is in a holding pattern as the Dow lost 8 points on light volume. Advance/declines were even. I guess we're waiting for the GDP report tomorrow and the Fed. I don't know which way we are going to go. No clear signal for the OEX so it's the sidelines for me with regards to the OEX. Gold took a hit today, down $15. The XAU dropped 4 1/4. ABX off 1 1/3, GG down a buck and NEM lost 1 2/3. Volume was light as it has been lately. My GG calls are back in the red. So back and forth we go here on this trade. The dollar lost ground today and that didn't help gold. That is not a positive going forward. I suppose I will see how the week closes out unless we simply drop in the gold shares from here. ABX earnings tomorrow and NEM on Thursday. I think tomorrow could be the key with all the news coming out. But that's a guess. We'll just have to see how it goes. Mentally I'm a bit tired, didn't sleep all that well. So here we are having moved sideways for the most part lately with regards to the overall market. We will break out sooner or later. Which way is the question. It feels as though the market wants to go higher. The technicals are mixed though. So we'll see where we go from here.
Monday, April 27, 2009
A meandering Monday as the Dow lost 51 points on lighter volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We opened lower, came back and wandered off again. Swine flu is grabbing the headlines. A lot of data out this week including a Fed meeting so I think swine flu will be in the background rather soon. But who knows? No clear signal for the OEX here so it's a wait and see mode for now. Gold lost $6 and the XAU dropped 2 points. ABX and GG were off 2/3 to 3/4, while NEM managed a gain of 1/3. Volume was light as there wasn't a lot of interest here even with the pandemic scare. My GG calls are back where I bought them. I'll be holding on for now. Gold companies earnings are out the next 3 days, including ABX and NEM. So I would expect some movement but certainly don't know which way it will be. So it should be an interesting week. Mentally I'm doing OK. The dollar was much stronger today and that would be a negative for gold going forward. We get 1st quarter GDP this week and that should move the dollar. Not to mention the Fed announcement on Wednesday. Housing data tomorrow. So there will be plenty to digest as the week moves forward. I'm holding the GG calls until the stochastic gets overbought and it isn't there yet. The only problem would be if it rolls over and never gets there. Anythings possible.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Another gain for the Dow as we were higher by 119 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. It's as if Mondays almost 300 points loss is an afterthought. You can't argue with price though. The so called bank stress test wasn't received badly. The truth is nobody really knows what it means. If we get to overbought next week, I may get some OEX puts. That remains to be seen. Gold was up $7 and the XAU rose 6 1/2. Finally the gold shares have started to act better than the metal itself. ABX up 1 1/4, GG rose 1 1/2 and NEM tacked on 2 and change. The only caveat was the volume, which was nothing special once again. The dollar got whacked and if that continues it could supply a bid for gold. My GG calls are back in the black. The weekly chart here could be turning positive and that would bode well for the future. Lots of gold company earnings next week and perhaps that will be a catalyst for the upside. Or not. GG doesn't report until May 7th. I will dump the calls when we reach overbought on the stochastic hopefully. Time will tell. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Still kind of lamenting the fact that I bought the GG calls too early but it really doesn't matter now. And dwelling on that fact won't change things. So I've got to go from here. I'm not sure just how much rally is left in gold here since the volume isn't there. I'm thinking perhaps I can sell my calls and then buy them back cheaper again while still in the May option cycle. But who knows? The overall stock market continues higher and I don't want to fight that fact with the OEX. Well, it is the weekend. I'll go over the charts and try and come up with some type of game plan for next week. For now it's time for a rest.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
A late day rally carried the Dow to a gain of 70 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Seems like we are just hanging around here this week after the sell off on Monday. I still don't have a clear signal to trade the OEX at the moment. Perhaps sideways for a while now, I don't really know. We are supposed to get some news on the government stress tests for the banks tomorrow and that could be a mover. We'll see. Gold had another good day, up $14 and now back over $900. However the gold shares remain subdued. The XAU managed a gain of 3 points. ABX and GG each up a buck and NEM up 1/3. Volume was nothing special. My GG calls are still in the red. Now we are seeing an updraft in gold itself but the gold shares just don't want to follow. Earnings are out on a lot of gold companies next week but GG isn't one of them. So the dilemma is what to do now? We are nowhere near overbought on the technicals for GG. However we are overbought on gold. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It looks like I should have traded ABX instead of GG, since it has performed better here. It had shown a bit better relative strength. But you can always look back regretfully. Going forward is what matters now. We'll see how the week closes out.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
A late day sell off led the Dow to a loss of 83 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. This seems like a market that wants to go higher even with todays sell off. No clear OEX signal at the moment. We are working off the overbought condition. Perhaps we will have a run up for the May expiration as we did for April. Too early to tell. Gold was up almost $10 and the gold shares did nothing. The XAU was higher during the day and closed flat. ABX and GG didn't do much and the recent leader NEM was off 1/2. Volume was light again as there isn't any interest here. My GG calls are losers for now and even though it's early in the options cycle, this trade doesn't look good. If the gold shares can't rally when gold is going up then they are destined to fall. Even the dollar lost ground today but it didn't help. We'll see where we go from here but it isn't looking good for the long side. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So I'm stuck in a losing trade with plenty of time left on the options. Not a good place to be really. I'll have to see how we close the week and take it from there. That's it for today.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Bouncing back today as the Dow gained 127 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. So was yesterday just an expiration related decline? Time will tell. We'll have to see how the week ends up. Nothing doing in the OEX trade arena for me at the moment. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU dropped 1 3/4. The daily charts don't look good for the upside here. ABX off 3/4, GG down about 1 1/4 and NEM off 1/4. The volume was light again. No follow through to yesterday. GG is weaker than the rest and my calls there are back under water. The gold shares are acting worse than the metal itself and that isn't a bullish sign. I'm holding on for now. Not much else going on for me at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK. Debating on whether to just take the GG loss this week or give it some more time to work. Still oversold but it's staying there and that isn't good. However it won't stay oversold forever. I think I'll give it until Friday at least unless there's a sharp break down. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, April 20, 2009
A downer Monday as the Dow lost 290 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. No buyers today as we begin the May option cycle. Is it the beginning of something big on the downside? I don't know. Sometimes the Monday after expiration gets skewed for whatever reasons so we'll have to see how things play out from here. Too early for an OEX trade as there is no solid signal and the options are pricey. Gold was up almost $20 on the safe haven theory however the XAU only gained 2 3/4. ABX was up 1 1/2, GG up 1 1/4 and NEM up a buck. Volume was nothing special. My GG calls are back where I bought them. I would have liked to see more upside and volume in the gold shares today but it didn't happen. The dollar had a pretty good day as well. Plenty of time for the GG trade to work out and we are still oversold there. At this point it looks like ABX would have been the better issue to trade. Hindsight never fails. So I will have to determine if I'm going to dump the GG calls early here and try and buy them back cheaper or just hold on. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The gold shares stopped going down for a day but that doesn't necessarily mean that they will be taking off to the upside. We'll see what happens in the next couple of days. Plus we have the earnings factor in the May cycle. So it will be interesting but it remains to be seen if it will be profitable.
Friday, April 17, 2009
We ended expiration with a slight gain of 6 points for the Dow on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The trend is up and it seems as though there is no stopping things at this point. Summation index still moving higher. It has been quite a rally off the lows. No OEX trades on the horizon. Gold lost $12 today and the XAU shed almost 4. ABX down 3/4, GG off 1 1/3 and NEM fell 1 3/4. All on good volume. My GG calls got filled. I think that I'm early here. This already has the feel of a trade that won't work out. In the red a touch and the weekly charts don't look good. Oversold on a daily basis so I may be able to exit on a bounce. I think I needed a little more patience here. Earnings are out in the May cycle. The dollar had a good day and that isn't helping gold. We moved sideways in the gold shares and then broke to the downside on increased volume. That's hardly a bullish scenario. So we'll see what happens. Time is on my side but that's about it at this point. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well enough. The weekend is here so it's time for a brief rest from the game. I'll look at the charts and go from there. But first a break.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
A new recovery high today as the Dow gained 95 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive. Summation index still pointing higher. Expiration tomorrow and I had no OEX trades in this option cycle. We continue higher but there is a lot of overhead resistance coming up at around 420 on the OEX. We'll see what happens. Gold lost over $13 today and the XAU fell over 6 points. ABX was off 1/2, while GG and NEM both lost over $2. Volume increased on the downside and that isn't a bullish sign. We are oversold here but the weekly charts don't look good for the upside. I still have in an order for GG calls though. I may cancel it but I do think when nobody wants something it is time to take a closer look. I think this trade has a chance to work so I'm sticking with it for now. If gold continues to break down here that would change things. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. The rally continues and you have to wonder how far it will go. We've been overbought on the OEX for a while now as well. We'll close out the week tomorrow and take a look at things over the weekend. Perhaps there will be follow through to the downside on gold tomorrow and my order will be filled for the GG calls. On to expiration.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
A late day rally took the Dow up 109 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Just looking to finish the week at this point for me. There won't be any OEX trades in this option cycle. It's no fun to wait around for a decent signal but you don't lose any money either. So patience is the key and here I sit. Gold was up a bit over a buck and the XAU rose 1 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around 1/2 on light volume. Nothing happening here as well. I'm leaving in my open order for GG calls but GG has been acting worse than the others lately. Not to worry, it will take a good drop to get filled. It's more sideways action here and there isn't much you can do about it. I'm still going to look for the May option cycle to do something with the gold shares. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing OK. I'm keeping an eye on things but I don't see anything trade worthy at the moment. I'll try and not do anything stupid in the next couple of days before expiration. Sometimes you have to be patient and this seems to me to be one of those times. Perhaps we'll be going sideways for some time but that's a guess. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
We lost some ground today as the Dow fell 137 points on better volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. No sense of panic here or much else of anything. We are meandering around here. It looks like I won't have any OEX trades this week at this point. 3 days to go in the April option cycle. We've been working our way higher in a trading range for a few weeks. I don't see any great shakes but I could be wrong. Gold lost a few bucks and the XAU fell a point. Kind of the same story here as well. Moving sideways for the last week and a half. ABX and GG slightly higher with NEM slightly lower. Volume slow once again. I'm leaving in an open order for GG May calls. It may take a while but I think the May gold share calls are the next trade. So we'll see. There hasn't been a lot of interest in gold lately but I'm willing to give it a shot. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep all that well. Expiration week continues and we haven't seen a lot of volatility. Sometimes you just have to be patient. It isn't easy. So I'm on the sidelines and waiting. And we'll go from there.
Monday, April 13, 2009
The Dow lost 25 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. If we can hold up into Wednesday, then I might try the OEX puts. Otherwise I will probably have to sit it out. So we'll see where it goes. 4 days left in the April cycle so the risk is high. Gold was up $12 today and the XAU rose 2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. I do want some May gold calls but I'm going to wait for lower prices if possible. The volume pattern here has gotten pretty lousy. There just isn't much interest and that won't help move these issues much higher. Also gold itself is acting better than the gold shares. That isn't a good sign going forward. We are oversold on the gold shares though. You want to own them when nobody else does. It's never easy. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. So the idea for this week is to get some OEX puts if we have strength into Wednesday. If that occurs we'll have a short term sell signal and I'll give it a go. If the gold shares drop then perhaps I'll get some May calls. That's it for today.
Thursday, April 09, 2009
The Dow closed the week with a huge gain of 246 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 6 to 1 positive. Banks led the way and that is a positive for the market. We should see some follow through on Monday. I have no OEX trades in mind but if it sets up properly, I'll try the puts next week. We'll see. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU dropped 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all down fractionally with GG leading the way. We are oversold here on a daily basis but there is no interest in the gold shares. Volume was weak again today. I will probably try the May calls here anyway if we have any weakness next week. Why? The technicals point to it. However there is also the possibility that we simply break down from here on the gold shares and that is the risk you take in this trade. I'll think about it over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Expiration week is the next event and it looks like it could be strong early and then we'll see what happens. That's a guess. It's a long weekend so perhaps I'll relax for a couple of days before I try to come up with some type of game plan for next week. I'll take a closer look at the charts and go from there. For now it's time for a break.
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
The Dow gained 47 points today on the recent light volume we've seen. It is a holiday week. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Not exactly sure where we're going here as it is a sideways affair. I suppose that I'll wait until next week for the OEX. Gold gained a couple bucks while the XAU lost about a half. Fractional losses for ABX, GG and NEM in lackluster trade. I'm looking at the May calls for the gold shares. I don't know if it will work but that is my focus at the moment. Interest in gold has waned which could be a problem for the long side. But we are getting oversold on a daily basis and I will probably do something next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Finish up the short week tomorrow and take it from there. No need to press things here because there really isn't much going on. The market is kind of acting like it can in the April cycle. Sideways with not really any great trading opportunities as yet. So it's the sidelines as it has been. I'll keep an eye on things and remain patient.
Tuesday, April 07, 2009
No buyers today as the Dow lost 186 points. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative and the volume was light. It looks like the OEX put trade will be put on hold because we have already worked our way lower for now. Perhaps it will set up for the calls next week. Hard to say. We could get sideways action which is sometimes typical for this time of year. So it's a time to be patient and wait for the proper set up. Gold gained $10 today and the XAU managed to gain 2/3 of a point. Not encouraging for the long side. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves both ways on light volume. No interest in gold at the moment. I do think that I'll try the May calls there when the stochastic reaches the bottom of its range. Could be soon. However the weekly charts don't look promising for the long side. So it is a tough situation to trade for now. I'll try and remain patient. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Only 2 trading days left for this week, with a long weekend approaching. Not a time to be too bold I think. I would like to do some type of trade for the April cycle but nothing is looking clear at the moment. As time goes by the risk increases. So it's the sidelines for now and I'll keep an eye on things going forward.
Monday, April 06, 2009
Weakness for Monday as the Dow lost 41 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. We were getting to overbought so a pullback wasn't out of the question. I don't think it's anything major. I'm looking for the market to continue higher into early next week and then a better drop. That's what I'm hoping I guess because the next trade will be OEX puts before April expiration. If it sets up properly. So we'll see. Gold lost another $25 today and the XAU fell 4 1/4. We were lower than that but came back. ABX lost 1 1/2, GG off 3/4 and NEM down a buck. Volume was light. GG and NEM finished well off their lows so perhaps we'll bounce tomorrow. ABX was at its low so the picture is mixed. I'm going to wait until the technicals get oversold on the gold shares before the next attempt at the calls. The dollar was stronger today as well. As the market rallies the safe haven play of gold loses its luster. I still like the gold shares from the long side longer term but for now it doesn't look like the place to be. I could be wrong and often am. Mentally I'm doing OK. I have somewhat of a game plan going forward but it will have to set up right. We could just bounce around here as well considering it is April. A short week here as well, the market will be closed on Friday. So I'm going to try and be patient for the OEX puts. We'll see what happens.
Friday, April 03, 2009
The Dow closed the week with a gain of 39 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The employment report was terrible as expected but we continued higher. The trend remains up. You can't argue with the market. Summation index pointing higher. There is a lot of resistance coming up so I don't expect some huge upside move but you never know. The next signal looks like it will be a sell. However no OEX trades for now. Gold dropped another $10 and the XAU lost almost 7. ABX down 1 7/8, GG off 1 2/3, NEM shed 2 1/3. The volume was better than lately. Getting oversold here but we have broken down. I'm going to have to give the gold shares some time to find a bottom. Perhaps getting long the May option cycle. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired. It's the end of the week and the weekend is upon us. Next week is a short week with a Friday holiday. It could be a sideways affair here for a while too. No need to press the issue here. If something looks like it has a chance to succeed, I'll give it a shot. Otherwise I'll have to remain on the sidelines. Time for a break before a check of the charts over the weekend.
Thursday, April 02, 2009
The Dow climbed 216 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. We were up over 300 at one point. But profits were taken ahead of tomorrow employment report. The trend is up even if we sell off tomorrow. I don't expect the employment report to have any good news really. However the markets will go wherever they want. No OEX trades for now. Gold lost almost $20 and the XAU dropped 6 and change. Volume increased to the downside and that's a negative. ABX off 1 1/2, GG down 2 and NEM fell over a buck. The dollar was weaker today as well but it didn't help the gold market. Oil was higher and gold fell anyway. So perhaps the flight to safety trade in gold is now unwinding. That's a guess. However price and volume is what I try to follow and today wasn't positive for the gold shares. It could all change tomorrow but I'm going to stay on the sidelines for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Thankful that I didn't chase the gold shares here but it isn't easy trying to be patient. I'm going to have to wait for a decent signal to trade the OEX as well. Trin readings still support higher prices but some other indicators are overbought. So it's a waiting game for me at the moment.
Wednesday, April 01, 2009
Continuing higher as we sold off early and roared back with the Dow gaining 152 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The market is refusing to sell off at this point even with Mondays action. The trend is up for now and should stay that way for the April option cycle. You can't argue with price. Gold was only up a couple bucks but the XAU rose 6 points. Beginning of the month and quarter money perhaps? ABX and GG were up 1 1/2 while NEM continues to lead, up 2 1/2. The only thing lacking was the volume which wasn't that great. But nobody was selling the gold shares here either. So it looks like I missed it again for GG. We are overbought and staying there. I am going to try not to chase the gold shares here but you never know. It is frustrating but you've gotta move on. At this point I suppose I'll just wait for the employment report on Friday. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep well or enough. I'd like to make some money here but nothing is happening for me at the moment. I will try not to press things here. So what can you do? I'll try and be patient and not do something stupid. But you never know.