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Tuesday, March 31, 2009

We ended the month and the quarter on a positive note as the Dow gained 87 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We were up 200 points during the day but sold off late. Still it's not a time to be negative on the market just yet. Waiting for the employment report on Friday. No OEX trades for now. Gold gained back what it lost yesterday and sold off a touch in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 1/2. ABX was flat while GG and NEM each lost 1/2. Volume was light again. Not a lot of interest in the gold shares here lately as we move sideways. I'm still interested but we'll see. I might have to get some calls before the employment report as planned. The daily charts are still overbought though. We'll have to see how tomorrow shakes out. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Sometimes waiting for the next trade is the hardest thing to do. You get anxious because you know there is money to be made but you have to wait for the odds to get in your favor. I do not have a clear signal for the OEX or the gold shares at the moment. I'm leaning towards the GG calls trade but it isn't set in stone. If GG shows some weakness before Friday then I might give it a shot. Patience is not to be underrated.

Monday, March 30, 2009

A downer Monday as the Dow lost 254 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. Quite a way to start the week but I don't think it is the beginning of another leg down to new lows. I could be wrong but I don't think so. We were oversold on the trin and are now more so. End of the month and quarter tomorrow. That could get things moving. The summation index is still pointing higher but that would change with another day like today. I'll be looking to get some OEX calls if a clear signal is generated. Sidelines for now. Gold lost about $7 today and the XAU dropped 2 1/4. ABX was flat while GG and NEM had fractional losses. Volume was lighter than lately. The volume pattern in the gold shares is favoring higher prices and I still would like to try the calls here. Timing is everything as usual. I may leave in an overnight order. However the indicators here still show an overbought condition and that has me concerned for the immediate upside. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good, slept well. I am going to try and not push things here but you never know. The employment report on Friday is the main focus for me this week. That could be the day to do something perhaps. Or maybe be positioned ahead of the number. I don't have a clear picture right now so it is probably best to wait. Hard to do though. The game is never simple.

Saturday, March 28, 2009

A day late for Fridays commentary due to some appointments yesterday. The Dow lost 148 points on lighter volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. We are a bit oversold on the trin here short term. I do think we are going to go higher but there is a lot of resistance at around 425 on the OEX. Summation index still pointing higher. The volume on the up days for the most part is greater than the volume on the down days. So we'll see. Gold lost over $15 and the XAU dropped 4 1/4. ABX lost 3/4, while GG and NEM each lost over a buck. The volume was light here though and the gold shares have the same positive volume trend as does the overall market. I still would like to try the gold shares for the April option cycle and perhaps will purchase some calls if there is weakness next week. That was the original plan to try and get long before the employment report. The dollar has stopped falling at the moment though. It is never easy. The weekly and daily XAU charts are overextended here so it's a tough call. Mentally I'm feeling good here on Saturday. Slept well and it's a day off from the hustle and bustle of the usual trading day. End of the month and the quarter coming up early next week. I'm still in the bullish camp for now but this has been a crazy market. I'll continue checking the charts this weekend and take some time to relax. Back at it on Monday.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Fresh new highs and we closed on the high of the day as the Dow gained 175 points on average volume. Advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The rally off the early month lows continues. No need to think it will stop anytime soon. The long term down trend line is still quite a way off. We are breaking through the first weekly down trend line as of today in the major indices. There is some resistance to appear at around 425 on the OEX from a prior consolidation. Gold was up a few bucks today and the XAU rose a point. ABX and GG were up slightly, while NEM gained a buck. NEM continues to lead. However the volume was light today on the gold shares and perhaps we'll get more than a day of pullback. That's a guess. Money has certainly been attracted to gold lately. So we'll see. Nothing else on the radar screen at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK, could have slept better. So it looks like I'll let this week pass and look to do something next week before the employment report. The market is moving higher. How high is the question. I'll have to check the charts and come up with some numbers over the weekend.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Up, down and back up again as the Dow gained 90 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. It was a volatile day with a 300 point range in the Dow. We came back in the last hour and that's usually a good sign. The economic data is being viewed as positive for the time being. Summation index still pointing to the upside so that is what we'll look for. Gold was up over $10 and the XAU rose over 4. ABX and GG were up around a buck on better volume. NEM up 2 on good volume. The gold shares continue to outperform the metal and if we get any kind of pullback, I think that is the place to be. Overbought here though so I'm going to be patient if I can be. Money continues to be attracted to the gold shares. I'm not going to chase it though. Nothing else on my radar screen at the moment. As I've said before, sometimes the April option cycle is a sideways affair. Staying on the sidelines unless something compelling appears could be the best strategy. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. Not much else for today. Final GDP will be reported tomorrow and it won't look good but I think it's already in the market. So we'll see.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Back down after yesterdays spectacular rise as the Dow lost 115 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. Where are we going? Overbought here but that doesn't mean we just fall apart. The market is having a nice rally and there is no reason to think that we won't head higher. Lots of resistance coming up but we aren't there yet. Just broke through the near term barrier yesterday. No OEX trades for now. Gold lost $25 today and the XAU fell 2 1/2 after being down a lot more. The gold shares are holding up pretty well here and that should be the next play. ABX down 1, GG off 1/2 and NEM dropped 3/4. Volume picked up a bit to the downside and that would be a concern going forward. GG is showing good relative strength and that is probably where I'll be looking. But it's the sidelines for now. Mentally I'm doing OK but a bit tired. The prudent thing to do here is wait for the gold shares to work off the overbought condition created by last weeks rise. That's what I'm trying to do now. There's no telling what the end of the month next week will do also. So it's a waiting game for now. Keep an eye on things and if it looks like it's time to trade, do it.

Monday, March 23, 2009

An explosive rally on the heels of the bank toxic asset program release as the Dow soared 497 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive. We have broken the resistance and are moving higher. Summation index moving higher. Is the bear market over? Maybe but I doubt it. It is more than a short term rally though so we'll see how far it goes. Gold lost a few bucks and sold off in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 1 1/2. ABX was off 1/3, GG was flat and NEM rose 40 cents. The volume was lighter than we've seen lately. I still want some gold share calls for April and that is the next play that I am looking for. We are overbought there and if we get a decline here, I will be getting long. I'll probably try GG again. GE had a good day, up around a buck on good volume. No trades there for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The April option cycle has begun with a bang to the upside. The premiums are expensive. There's no hurry to trade here but you still have to keep an eye on things. I'd expect some follow through to the upside tomorrow. So I'll be watching the gold shares and waiting for an opportunity to get long.

Friday, March 20, 2009

A lower expiration as the Dow lost 122 points on good volume. Advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. Weakness here was expected as we were quite overbought. I don't think it's the beginning of another leg down but we might test the lows. However I don't want to forget that the trend is now up. The OEX puts I sold yesterday doubled from where I sold them. I couldn't take the risk with only a day left. You have to live with your decisions and move on. Gold lost a couple bucks today and the XAU dropped 1/3. ABX was flat, GG up 40 cents and NEM gained more than a buck. Volume was average. NEM has been leading the way and continues to do so. I'll be looking at getting some April calls next week if we get a pullback. My plan for now is to be long the gold shares before the employment report in the first week of April. Gold had quite a move this week and I would expect it to take a rest before the next leg up. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. We are moving into the April option cycle. Sometimes the April time period is a sideways event. I'll need to watch out for that. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. Time for a break.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

It was a down day on the street as the Dow lost 86 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about even. We were and still are overbought and we are at resistance. So some selling was expected. I dumped the OEX puts but certainly could have done a better job there. The gain was over 50%. With only one day left in the March cycle, as much as I wanted to hold on for another day, I had to sell them. I wouldn't be surprised to see the market down tomorrow as well. But I decided to cut the risk. Gold was up another $40 today in an incredible move since the Fed announcement. It's where I should be. The XAU tacked on another 7 points. ABX up 1 1/2, GG up 2 and NEM up 2 3/4. Volume heavy again. Price and volume moving there and that tells me it's for real. I'll be looking to get long on any pullback. GE had a one day reversal, opening higher and closing lower. It ended down 20 cents on heavy volume. It could be a sign for the market to move lower near term. It led the way on the upside. Mentally I'm feeling tired with not enough sleep in the past couple of days. I certainly could have gotten a better price on the OEX puts today but got a touch greedy. I also think that holding them overnight might have worked. But there's nothing I can do about it now. Decisions must be made and then you move on. It's never easy in the game. I'll try and do better the next time.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Volatility returns as the Dow was down over 100, up over 150 and ended the day 90 points on the upside. The Fed announcement caused some crazy moves. I did buy some OEX puts as we hit the upside resistance. They are slightly profitable but the way the market is acting here to the upside is a cause for concern to me. We are overbought both short and medium term though. Advance/declines today were 3 to 1 positive and the volume was good. So with just 2 days to go the risk is pretty high. Gold went crazy today. After being down $25, once the Fed announcement came out, we were up $25. The XAU reversed and was up 10 1/2 points. ABX and GG were up 3 and NEM up 3 1/2 all after being down early. Volume was extremely heavy. It is a solid reversal for certain. I did have a chance to get some calls right after the announcement but didn't. I just wasn't fast enough and was concentrating on the OEX. Perhaps I should have been looking at gold instead but who would have known what was about to happen? Mentally I'm doing OK, a bit tired from not enough sleep. So I really should be out of this OEX trade on any weakness tomorrow. That is the plan. I suppose we could just continue higher but the market is really due for a rest. Throw in expiration week and there should be a bit more volatility in the next couple of days. But who knows? The markets go where they want.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Squeeze those shorts as the Dow rose 178 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Yesterdays one day reversal to the downside was not confirmed. It looks like we will run it up early in the expiration week. I am going to get some OEX puts tomorrow if the opportunity presents itself. Still short term overbought and I think strength tomorrow should be sold for a quick profit. We do have the Fed meeting and announcement which kind of throws a wrench into things as far as timing goes. But I do think that buying OEX puts at some point tomorrow will work. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU fell 1 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. I do still want to get some gold share calls for April but am concentrating on the OEX scenario for now. The weekly gold share charts still imply higher prices near term. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. So the OEX will be the next trade. The market has changed here, make no mistake about that. The decline is over for now. However expiration week can be volatile and I believe there will be some decent downside action before Fridays close. The entry will be tough and I hope I'm up to the challenge. We'll see what happens.

Monday, March 16, 2009

So we had a one day reversal, as the Dow was up over 160 points and ended the day down 7. Volume was average. Advance/declines were positive. We were short term overbought and we're working that off. I did want to get some OEX puts but from higher levels. I don't think I'll do it now but you never know. The candlestick charts on the stock indices look like a short term top has been put in. So we'll see. I wouldn't be surprised if we squeeze the shorts again this week too. Gold lost 8 bucks and the XAU dropped 1 1/4. The gold shares themselves were mixed. ABX was flat, GG of 1/3 and NEM down a point. Volume was light. I'm still thinking April calls there. I'll need to see more of a pullback though. GE closed flat after being much higher. Nothing doing there. Mentally I'm doing OK. Got a late start today but I don't have anything imminent in the works. Checked the charts over the weekend and getting some OEX puts looks to be the only trade this week. However, I was looking for strength into Wednesday and we have already turned around. So it looks like a waiting game for now. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Friday, March 13, 2009

The Dow is climbing higher as we gained another 54 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Perhaps the sellers are finally through for the time being. Option expiration week coming up. No OEX trades in the works for now. We'll see about next week but I don't foresee anything at the moment. Gold was up another $6 today and the XAU gained 1 3/4. ABX was up 3/4, while GG and NEM rose a buck. The volume was light though. I still like the weekly gold share charts and perhaps will get some April calls on weakness next week. I'll have to think it over. GE was flat today. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. It wasn't a good week as I exited another losing trade. I'll need to come up with a new game plan over the weekend. A check of the charts and I'll go from there. I may just stay on the sidelines as well. For now it's time for a break.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 240 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive. Cover those shorts. The McClellan oscillator will move into positive territory after todays action. It should turn around the summation index. I'm sticking with the prognosis that the decline is over for now. So I guess it is time to trade from the long side if the opportunity presents itself. Getting short term overbought here though and I haven't mentioned that condition for quite some time. Gold was up around $15 and the XAU rose 4 1/2. Did I bail out of the GG calls at the wrong time? Well, yes but that doesn't make them profitable now. They are too far out of the money with very little time to go. ABX was up 1 1/2, GG up 60 cents and NEM added about a buck. Volume was nothing special. I must say that the weekly charts for the gold shares still look very positive here. It is a dilemma here for me. Perhaps I will try the April calls in the gold shares after all. I'll mull it over this weekend. March is historically the worst month for gold. So it's risky. GE had another great day, up over a buck on very heavy volume. Certainly missed out on that trade. Mentally I'm a bit tired again, restless sleep. I'm trying not to do anything stupid here but you never know. 6 days left in the March cycle. I don't think the market will just run up into the expiration but who knows? We were very oversold. We'll see how the week ends up.

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Up and down today but basically nowhere as the Dow gained 4 points on average volume. Advance/declines were solidly positive. No follow through from yesterdays huge move. So we'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold gained back about $15 and the XAU was up 6 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up by around 1 1/2 on average volume. Not enough to save my old GG calls. I'll be looking to get some April gold share calls if things pan out in the next couple of weeks. That's about the only idea for now. GE lost 1/3 on heavy volume. It has moved pretty good percentage wise lately. No trades there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. Just trying to stay on the sidelines here as the trading thus far this year has been atrocious. Yes, I'll regroup and move forward but the inability to do what needs to be done when it needs to be done is troublesome. I'm in a slump, recognize that and will go from here. There's no need to dwell on it. The fact that I have no good ideas here doesn't help things. Confidence is important and I don't have any at the moment. I'll try and tread lightly.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

An explosion to the upside as the Dow gained 379 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 8 to 1 positive. This is what everyone has been waiting months for. It has been way overdue. It's not the beginning of a new bull market but the lows set here should hold for a while. I will say that it is the end of the decline for now. The S&P 500 has had what looks like a classic 1 2 3 4 5 pattern or ABCDE decline. It will take some time for a real bottom to form. Months if not over a year or so. But it's all just a guess. The market will go where it wants. Gold lost over $20 again today and the XAU lost 5 1/2. ABX and GG were off around 1 3/4, while NEM fell 2 3/4. Volume was heavy and picked up to the downside. My GG calls died and I sold them for an 85% loss. I blew it on this trade since they were profitable at one point. I was sick, didn't get up early when I needed to and suffered the consequences. I knew they were dead yesterday and yet again failed to just take the loss. It's the sidelines for me now as punishment. Not to mention that I have had a horrendous start to the trading year and readjustments must be made. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected. GE had a banner day, up almost 1 1/2 on heavy volume. Perhaps it was foretelling todays action by holding up rather well the past few days. Again, hindsight. It does nothing for me now. So it's back to the drawing board and I have no real ideas going forward. 8 days remaining in the March option cycle. Hopefully I'll stay flat.

Monday, March 09, 2009

The malaise continues as the Dow lost 80 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Not a lot of news this week and there is really no reason to get excited about stocks here. We are oversold and the McClellan oscillator is where it should bounce. But none of this means much lately. No trades in the OEX for me here. Gold got whacked, down $25. The XAU lost 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM all lost around a buck or more. The volume was light though. That's the only thing that kept me from taking the loss on the GG calls trade. Maybe tomorrow. I should have been out early Friday morning. Hindsight is always correct. But it doesn't do much for me now. We'll see how it plays out because the weekly chart is what kept me in the trade. GE managed a gain on heavy volume and that could be a signal that we are going to turn things around here with regards to the overall market. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling better, not sick anymore. I'm running out of time on the GG calls trade and at this point it looks like another loser for 2009. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Friday, March 06, 2009

The Dow ended the day up 32 points on average volume today. We were up over 100, down over 100 and came back in the last half hour. Advance/declines were negative. I don't exactly know what to make of it. The employment report was viewed as a good thing early. Even though the rate was higher and hundreds of thousands of jobs were lost. GE is showing strength here and that may be a good thing for the overall market going forward. We'll see. Gold was up over $10 today but the XAU only managed a gain of 1/3. That's troublesome for the long side. We also were higher early and closed lower. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM dropped 1 1/2. Volume was better to the downside as well. My GG calls are at break even. The only thing that kept me in this trade today was the fact that the weekly chart looks very constructive for a positive move next week. 2 weeks to go on these calls and they need to be sold on a rally next week. I probably should have bailed out early this morning but didn't. I will be out at some point next week and looking to April. Mentally I'm feeling better, the cold is dissipating. I'll have to check the weekly calendar and see what reports are due out next week. It is the weekend and time for a break. I'll try and rest up and get ready for the new trading week. A check of the charts and go from there.

Thursday, March 05, 2009

Continuing to fall apart as the Dow lost 281 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 8 to 1 negative. And we haven't even seen the employment report yet. I think that tomorrow could be a washout event. Something whereby we get sold out so much that all the sellers are gone. A climatic sell-off that signals the end of this downturn for now. I'm guessing here. I don't know what will happen tomorrow. Bu this won't go on forever and the shorts will start to cover in a big way at some point. Gold had a good day, up over $20. The XAU rose 5 3/4 points. ABX up a buck, NEM up 1 1/2 and GG up almost 2. The volume was only average though, that was the only drawback. My GG calls are in the black. Should I have just bailed out today? It is always hard to make the adjustments as new information comes in. It is an ever changing game and that's why it is so difficult. The weekly gold share charts are now looking constructive and point to higher prices near term. So I might be holding on here longer than previously thought. Or not. We'll have to see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm starting to feel a little better but not all the way back from getting over this cold. The game is tough and not feeling 100% doesn't help things. Tomorrow should be interesting to say the least.

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

A bounce today as the Dow gained 150 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Does it mean anything? Who knows? We're still oversold but I don't see a lot of buying before the employment report is released. I could be wrong. GE lost another 40 cents on super heavy volume. Does somebody know something? They already cut their dividend. I really doubt GE is going out of business but stranger things have happened I guess. Gold continues lower, off $7. The XAU was flat but higher early on. ABX and GG had fractional losses and NEM had a fractional gain. Volume was average. My ill timed GG calls are worth half as much. Probably should get out soon and that is the plan. I do have a thought of the dollar falling on the employment report and gold rallying. I'm probably going to wait for that. Mentally I'm tired and still not feeling well. It might be best to be on the sidelines here but I'm not. You really need to be up for the job. It's never easy. Where we go from here is anybodies guess. I'd be surprised if the jobs report had any good news. How the market reacts to that will be the key going forward short term.

Tuesday, March 03, 2009

The market is trying to stabilize as the Dow lost 37 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. Short and medium term oversold here so a bounce is expected. But can it last? The employment report is due on Friday. That will be interesting. So we'll see what happens. Gold lost $25 today but the XAU rose over 3 points. ABX and NEM were up fractionally, while GG gained over a buck. The volume was decent. My GG calls are still losers. I'll be looking to get out this week and then position for the April cycle if all goes well. No telling what will happen at this point. March is a historically weak month for gold and that must be taken into consideration. However these are not your normal times. GE continues lower on absurdly heavy volume. GE is now under $7 a share. Mentally I'm a bit slow, still have a slight cold. I'm thinking there will be a wild end to the week here. The employment report can't possibly have any good news. Until then it's wait and see I guess. I'll keep an eye on the GG calls and go from there.

Monday, March 02, 2009

So fall apart it is as the Dow lost 300 points to start the week. Advance/declines were over 10 to 1 negative. Volume was average. There are no buyers. We'll find a bottom somewhere. GE lost another buck on heavy volume. Will GE go out of business? I sincerely doubt it. Summation index lower. So down we go but I think that down the road anybody buying now will be glad they did. Gold lost a couple bucks and dropped hard in the aftermarket. There is no flight to safety. It is a liquidation event again. I left in an overnight order for some gold calls, thinking the gold shares would attract assets when we fell. Of course that didn't happen. I got filled and GG was off 2 bucks on heavy volume. The calls I bought got cut in half. The XAU dropped 9 points. ABX lost over 2 and NEM lost over 3. Heavy volume as well since money must be raised. I should be out of the calls this week, most likely with another loss. I should have just sat on the sidelines. I wasn't patient. I really do want some gold share calls for April. Chalk it up to another mistake in a mistake prone year so far. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. I'm also not feeling 100% with a slight touch of a cold. But there are no excuses, my trading has been terrible this year. So what to do from here? Sit tight I suppose. Exit the GG trade and wait. There will be opportunity.