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Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Volatility returns as the Dow was down over 100, up over 150 and ended the day 90 points on the upside. The Fed announcement caused some crazy moves. I did buy some OEX puts as we hit the upside resistance. They are slightly profitable but the way the market is acting here to the upside is a cause for concern to me. We are overbought both short and medium term though. Advance/declines today were 3 to 1 positive and the volume was good. So with just 2 days to go the risk is pretty high. Gold went crazy today. After being down $25, once the Fed announcement came out, we were up $25. The XAU reversed and was up 10 1/2 points. ABX and GG were up 3 and NEM up 3 1/2 all after being down early. Volume was extremely heavy. It is a solid reversal for certain. I did have a chance to get some calls right after the announcement but didn't. I just wasn't fast enough and was concentrating on the OEX. Perhaps I should have been looking at gold instead but who would have known what was about to happen? Mentally I'm doing OK, a bit tired from not enough sleep. So I really should be out of this OEX trade on any weakness tomorrow. That is the plan. I suppose we could just continue higher but the market is really due for a rest. Throw in expiration week and there should be a bit more volatility in the next couple of days. But who knows? The markets go where they want.

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