Friday, May 30, 2008
It seems like summertime already as the Dow lost 8 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We went nowhere really all day and then sold off in the last 5 minutes. These type of days are not good for option trading. I canceled my open order for the OEX puts and will try again next week. Perhaps getting them on Monday if we see any strength. I did notice a lot more premium in the puts than the calls, which leads me to believe that the puts are the way to go here. 3 weeks on the June option cycle left. We'll see. Gold bounced back about 10 bucks and the XAU gained 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher but the volume was light. I'm still thinking sideways there for now but I certainly don't know. Could follow oil if it heads lower like we saw in the past week. I'm just guessing there. As usual it will help to follow the dollar. GE was up a touch on good volume. Again the volume in GE has picked up but I can't tell if it's accumulation or distribution. It is oversold on a weekly basis. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. We've had an up week on light volume. We also did not see any follow through to a very bad previous week. I am pretty sure that there will be some downside next week. It's a matter of proper positioning beforehand. We should see some positive money flows early in the week. The employment report is out on Friday. I'm going to check the charts over the weekend and try and come up with some type of viable game plan. For now it's time for a break. Relax and forget about the markets for a couple of days.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
3 days in a row to the upside as the Dow gained 51 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume looks to be average. We were up well over 100 at one point. I still have an open order for some OEX puts. Perhaps today was the day to purchase them. If we hold up here I will probably get some tomorrow or Monday. However it's possible that the snap back is over. I don't know, we will just have to see what the market does from here. Gold lost $23 bucks today as the dollar was higher and oil got clobbered. The XAU erased yesterdays reversal and lost 7 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower by a buck and change on average volume. We haven't taken out the recent lows in gold yet but it appears to be on the way. It's possible that support will be stronger here for the dollar as interest rates continue to rise. As money leaves the bond market it is finding a home in the stock market and that could undermine the OEX put trade. We'll see. GE was up a touch on heavy volume again. I can't make out what's going on there really. Oversold, staying there and no trend. Not planning anything with that issue at the moment. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep all that well. End of the month tomorrow so it's anybodies guess what happens there. We should see a bit of support with beginning of the month money flows next week. Perhaps I'll wait for that to get the OEX puts. Or perhaps not. The summation index should be back to positive after today but we'll see. It's been a lighter volume rally so far and that what I was looking for. How long it goes on is the key. Can we squeeze a couple more days out of it? Stay tuned.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
The Dow gained 45 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We opened higher, went lower and closed back up again. After such a negative week last week, we are not seeing any follow through to the downside. We've had opportunities for that but it hasn't occurred. Perhaps we are making our way back to the violated up trend line. Or maybe that's it for the decline and we will power higher. I do think we need some move positive action short term according to my work. I still have an open order for some OEX puts though. I'll cancel it if we get some volume to the upside. Gold lost another $7 today but the XAU was up almost 2 points. It opened lower and closed higher. ABX, GG and NEM were all fractionally higher on average volume. It was a one day reversal to the upside there. I can't get too excited about it though. I think we might go sideways there but that's a guess. Oil was back up today and I think gold followed. GE was up a touch on heavy volume. There has been a lot of volume in GE lately. I'd like to say that I know what that means but I don't. Mentally I'm doing OK. Trying to figure out the next move here. Medium term is looking more like a buy signal than a sell. Summation index is heading down. I do think we need to see more upside near term though. So it's a bit confusing and kind of mixed at the moment. I'm still looking short side but that could be wrong. GDP revision tomorrow and some oil inventory numbers, so we'll see what happens.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
A holiday shortened week begins with the Dow gaining 69 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Oversold and definitely due for a bounce and we got it. I did have a thought of getting some OEX calls that expire this week but didn't. Haven't tried them yet but today may have been the time to take a chance. Obviously not a longer term proposition. I'm still leaning to the short side and have an open order in for some OEX puts. Need to be careful here though as the snap back could go farther and last longer then expected. We'll see. Gold lost $20 today as the dollar was higher and oil weaker. The XAU dropped 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down at least a buck with GG off almost 2. Volume was light though. The weekly XAU chart looks ominous as it is, so I'm not looking to trade gold here. Unless a decent signal appears of course. GE was only off a few cents on heavy volume again. The volume has picked up in GE to the downside lately and that is not a good sign in my opinion. But who knows? I've been wrong before. Mentally I'm feeling good after a 3 day break. It's always good to step back from the game once in a while. My thinking is that we will see some positive market action this week based just on the technicals. I'm guessing it's a set up to buy some puts for later on in the June option cycle for those who haven't gotten them yet such as myself. It could just be a 2 day bounce or perhaps stretch out for the whole week. As long as the volume remains light to the upside, shorting things here appears to me to be the way to go. Timing as always is crucial. I do think we have more to go on the downside and am looking to trade accordingly. For now we'll see how far the snap back goes and take it from there. I don't think this is the beginning of a new rally. But the market will do what it does. I'll try to listen.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Nothing but downside as the Dow tacks on another loss. 146 points today on light volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. We are way oversold at this point. Summation index clearly to the downside. When will we see a bounce? I think everyone is looking to get short by now. Perhaps it is just another missed opportunity but I am holding out hope that we get some upside to get short. There really aren't any buyers out there right now though. A long weekend to ponder things. Gold rose over $7 today while the XAU lost 1 1/4. ABX and NEM were losers. GG posted a slight gain. Volume was light all the way around. Do I want to try some gold share calls here again? Maybe but it's looking the same as the OEX puts as far as the timing is concerned. GE lost another 1/2 on good volume again. So perhaps GE is showing the way. Does it mean the overall market will break down past the March lows as well? We'll see. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected considering. First a terrible trade in ABX and then missing out on this weeks decline. I'm still liking the bounce and get short game plan but who knows? There hasn't been a bounce. You really have to be mentally tough just to survive in the game. It isn't easy but you've got to keep going forward. I'll check things over the weekend but I already know where things stand. The thing is, you don't want to get short too quickly either. That said, when we do get the expected bounce, I'll probably take the chance. A long weekend ahead which is a welcome break in the action. I'll try and forget about thing for a while and get back at it on Tuesday.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
A weak attempt a a bounce today as the Dow gained 24 points. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was lighter. It's hard to be patient here but that's what's required at this point I believe. I wouldn't expect much tomorrow with a long weekend ahead but you never know. If I get the chance, I'll get some OEX puts next week. The summation index is pointing down. I do believe that we are headed lower even with the sell-off that's already occurred. The premiums on the puts are high and that tells me that they are going to work. Gold lost $10 today and the XAU fell 2 points. ABX , GG and NEM were all lower on lighter volume. ABX is showing relative strength now. We're overbought here now. Plus I'm still kicking myself for the last ABX trade that blew-up in my face. No one to blame but me there. GE was flat on good volume. It's oversold but shows no signs of a rally yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept pretty good. Needless to say, you've really got to be on your toes in the game. One day off, one hour off on the timing and it's hard to recover. Gotta be nimble, gotta be quick. You need to pay attention and do the work every day. I hate missing moves and that has happened again here with the OEX. I still think I can salvage something though. It won't be easy. Pre-holiday Friday coming up and we'll take it from there.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Another downer on Wall Street today as the Dow lost 227 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. We're down over 500 points from the high on Monday. That's quite a move. Of course the OEX puts would have worked but not to worry, they still will. The summation index should roll over today. We will be short term oversold by tomorrow and there will be a bounce shortly. I'll look to buy some puts on the bounce. I think it will work but we'll see. Gold continued higher as the dollar has started to fall again. It was up 8 bucks and continues higher in the aftermarket. The XAU lost over 2 points though. ABX was up a touch, while GG and NEM were off fractionally. Volume was pretty good. Perhaps the XAU needs to take a rest here. GE was down another 3/4 on heavy volume. It has broken down through support. I think it's leading the market here and telling us that the downside is for real. Mentally I'm doing OK. Trying not to kick myself too hard for not getting short on Monday but I still think there's time for a downside trade to work. Most likely waiting for sometime next week would be prudent. I do have a target in mind for the OEX and it is quite lower from here. So we'll see. There is a lot of talk about oil lately as it rallies to new all-time highs. Any decline in the price of oil should send the Dow higher, at least on a short term basis. I'll be looking out for that if it occurs also.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
The expected weakness materialized as the Dow lost 199 points. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the volume looks a little light. Is it the beginning of something big? Doesn't look like it as the overall market did not match the decline in the Dow. The summation index might start to turn here though. It bears watching. Plenty of time in the June options cycle. I did put in an overnight order for some OEX puts but we were weak from the start and it wasn't filled. Gold had another good day, up around $15. The XAU rose 4 3/4 as the dollar was weaker. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher on OK volume. GG was up the most. It looks like the June calls for the gold shares is the correct trade here. I missed it. Might be able to try again if we get a pullback. GE lost 70 cents on heavy volume. Perhaps GE is sending a message for the overall market. It looks as though it is breaking down here. Really needs to hold 31.50. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Slept well enough. At this point I'm thinking that this is the first wave down. We should see the market try and come back from here. As it comes back it will possibly give me a chance to pick up the OEX puts again. That is the scenario I'm looking at now. The market will go where it wants. It's possible that this decline will fail to really take hold and we will rally to new highs from the March lows. However, I am going to look for more of a decline. Patience will be required for now and we'll go from there.
Monday, May 19, 2008
An interesting Monday as the Dow was up over 150 points and closed with a gain of 41 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. The NASDAQ opened higher and closed lower. It's time to buy the OEX puts in my opinion. There is a chance that today will be a downside fake-out but my work indicates that there will be some decent downside on a closing basis at some point this week. I'll be looking to get short any strength tomorrow. We do have inflation data coming out. Gold was up $5 today and the XAU gained a point. ABX gained 3/4 while GG and NEM were basically flat. The volume was light. The dollar was higher today and gold still managed a gain. I'm not looking to try anything with the gold shares at the moment but that could change. GE was up 1/4 on good volume. Hard to tell what that means. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. It is very early in a long, June options cycle. Premiums are high but there is still money to be made. The market has been very resilient lately. We are at or above the important 200 day moving averages for quite a few indices. It is risky to try the OEX puts here but I do think it's worth it. Todays sell-off lets you know that others have the same feeling perhaps. The summation index is still going higher, that's something that could change but it hasn't yet. We are overbought but could stay that way. So it's a tough call. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Option expiration Friday and the Dow lost 5 points. We were lower early and came all the way back. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. It is a market that does not want to go down as we grind our way higher. We are hovering around the 200 day moving average for many of the indices. I still want to short things but the market has to set up right for it if I'm going to take the risk. Perhaps next week. Gold soared $20 today and the XAU rose 5 1/2 points. NEM led the way, up 2 bucks with ABX and GG up around a dollar. The volume increased. Now who would have thought ABX would be up about 10% in 2 days after I dumped the calls? Frustrating is what it is. The loss could have been cut substantially if I had waited. But the reality is that I never should have been in such a position. I find it interesting that NEM is leading the way here. The dollar was weaker and oil was higher. Perhaps the June gold share call options will work here. GE lost about 20 cents on good volume. Looking at GE longer term, it looks like it is about to break down here on the weekly chart. Perhaps a precursor for the market? That's a guess. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. Trying not to do anything stupid here but you never know. The market just seems as though it wants to go higher. If we break out above the 200 day moving average with volume, it should be quite a rise. That hasn't happened yet. Summation index continues higher and there are no divergences at the moment. I will try to not be too stubborn and listen to the market. That said, I could see a sell as early as Tuesday. We'll see. It's time for the weekend and a check of the charts. You've gotta keep moving on in the game.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Another good day in the markets as the Dow rose 94 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive and the volume looks OK. The trend is up and we continue higher. Not the environment to be buying puts. If we continue upwards we'll be overbought next week. May try some OEX puts then but if the volume picks up to the upside it's a no go. The overall market continues strong as that's where the money flow is. Summation index higher. Gold had a good day as well, up around $15. The XAU rose 6 3/4. ABX up 1 1/3, GG up $2 and NEM up over 1 1/2. The volume was a bit better today. Just an oversold bounce or the start of something bigger? Well, it's too late for me because I'm out of the ABX calls. The dollar didn't do much today either. GE lost a touch on better volume. That issue is going nowhere. However I do keep an eye on it because it does sometimes lead the market. Mentally I'm doing a well as can be expected. Trying to put the terrible ABX trade behind me. I do have a scenario to get short the market here if it plays out. But the rise in prices seems to have no end at the moment. It could be more than just expiration related. Time will tell on that. Otherwise I have nothing else in the pipeline. June options have an extra week in them, premiums are higher than the normal cycle. Let's close things out for the May option period tomorrow.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
I'm here a bit early today as I finally bailed out of the ABX trade. It doesn't get any worse than that. It was a 90% loser and let me tell you. You should never have 90% losers. There wasn't a lot of money involved and I'm thinking that could be part of the reason I let it go for so long. But that's really not an excuse because there are no excuses. Discipline was completely lacking here. But we're all human. Had a couple of chances to escape this madness but chose to stay until the bitter end. The buy signal there did work for a short time but the dynamics of of this market have changed. Money is flowing out of gold and the buy signals don't work like they used to. But that doesn't change the fact that this was the worst managed trade of the year so far. The one day reversal on Friday was the key and I saw it but didn't heed it. The blame lies with me. The trouble is that trades like this erode your confidence going forward. And you have to have that confidence to be successful. So it's back to the drawing board. You've just got to admit your mistakes and move on. It's easy to say but hard to do. The Dow gained 66 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up over 150 at one point but sold off in the last couple of hours. The trend still seems to be higher. It is expiration week so some volatility is to be expected. Summation index still moving higher. I do think there will be some type of sell-off in the June option cycle but the timing will be key. Gold lost 3 bucks today and the XAU shed over 3 points. ABX and GG were down while NEM was flat. Volume was light. Interest here has waned. The dollar was up a touch. The inflation data was lower than expected. I guess I'm done with gold now for a while but that could change. The weekly ABX chart is blown out to the downside but we really aren't getting any bounce. At some point, that will change. GE was up fractionally on light volume. That stock is going nowhere. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected with a blowout losing trade. Slept OK. 2 days left on the May cycle, so I won't be doing anything stupid here I think. It's time to regroup and get ready for the next trade. Most likely in the OEX but we'll see.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
The Dow lost 44 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ higher on the day. The market seems as though it wants to move higher here. It is expiration week. No OEX trades for now. Gold got clocked today as it lost $15. However the XAU was only off 1/4. ABX, NEM and GG all had only fractional losses on light volume. Interesting as it really didn't make sense. My ABX calls are still dead, will cut the loss at some point before Friday. Again, a terrible trade. GE was flat on light volume. Option writers there are rejoicing. Mentally I feel OK, still a bit tired. Not much to say here really. A looming ABX loser on the horizon and after that, who knows? Inflation data tomorrow. The retail sales news from today was a bit weak but the dollar rallied anyway and bonds sold off. Not the expected reaction. As for the gold shares not selling off in the wake of a $15 loss in gold, can't figure that one out either. Perhaps it means a pop in gold tomorrow but that's just a guess. I'll be watching things overnight and take it from there.
Monday, May 12, 2008
A light volume Monday rally today as the Dow gained 130 points. Advance/declines were pretty good, over 2 to 1 positive. I'd still like to be a believer of the June OEX puts here but the summation index should continue higher with todays action. As for the OEX, I am probably going to let option expiration week pass and get short next week. But that could change. I'll have to see how the week plays out. Gold didn't do much today, the XAU lost 2/3. ABX and NEM were weaker, while GG was flat. ABX led the way down by 3/4 on light volume and my ABX calls are in the red. This trade is a loser and isn't coming back in all likely hood. It's a cut the loss mode at this point. The poorest trade of the year regardless how it turns out. The dollar opened higher and closed lower but both gold and oil couldn't rally off of that. Retail sales tomorrow, we'll see what that does. GE was up a bit on light volume. As usual not much going on there. Mentally I'm tired. Did not sleep well and the mental energy lost in this poor ABX trade takes a toll. What bothers me is that I had a couple of chances to get out with a small gain and didn't take them. Why? I don't know. You've got to perform properly given the conditions. If you can't do that, you haven't got a chance no matter how much work you do when the market is closed. So we'll see what happens overnight and go from there.
Friday, May 09, 2008
It was another downer on Wall Street today as the Dow lost 121 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 100 market would indicate. Poor earnings from AIG and higher oil prices are the excuses. We have worked off the overbought condition. I'm thinking that we will get some type of rally attempt next week. I think the tone of the market is changing here and I am going to look to get short on strength. The summation index is starting to roll over. The ideal scenario would be a light volume rally. We'll see. Gold was up another 3 bucks today but the XAU lost 2 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower and all had one day reversals to the downside. They each opened higher and closed lower with ABX getting the worst of it. The ABX calls I have are back under water. This has been an incredibly poorly managed trade. Why I continue to stay in it with only a week left is beyond me. I should have gotten out of it at least 2 times already without a loss. My brain must be asleep. But it isn't looking like it will come back at this point. The weekly technicals are oversold and staying there. It also is the weakest of the group right now. Perhaps my mind will get back to reality next week. I certainly hope so. GE lost 1/3 on average volume. Nothing doing there. Mentally I feel OK, slept well. I think the market is perhaps going to roll over here. It already has to some extent but the bullish sentiment remains. I'll be looking for some type of rally and then hopefully step up and get some June OEX puts. The ABX trade needs to end so I can focus on something else. If it's a loser, so be it and move on. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. The weekend will be a chance to check things over and get ready for Monday morning. We'll see what happens.
Thursday, May 08, 2008
We bounced back a bit today as the Dow gained 52 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume looks a little lighter. We really just bounced around today. Considering yesterdays action, it wasn't too bad. I have no OEX trades in the pipeline at the moment. No clear signal but I'm leaning towards getting some June puts. We'll see. Gold had a good day, up $10 and the XAU soared 7 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over a buck with GG adding 2 1/2. Volume was good on ABX and GG. GG continues to show relative strength. The ABX calls I own are back to showing a slight gain. I really should have just gotten out today but the technicals have room to go on the upside in ABX. However there are only 6 days left. Decisions, decisions. GE was flat on light volume. The option writers there are making money. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. I have noticed that money has come back into the gold shares, for whatever reasons. I don't know how long that will last. My hope is that they will run them up into the expiration. But things can turn on a dime. This ABX trade has not turned out the way I thought it would. ABX is lagging the other gold shares. While keeping an eye on ABX, it is perhaps taking my focus away from better opportunities. Or not. I'll have to think about it this evening and come up with some type of plan for the rest of this trade.
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
It was a down day for the Dow as we lost 206 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. Nobody was in a buying mood today as higher oil was deemed the catalyst for the decline. Will it turn the summation index around? Stay tuned. We were overbought and perhaps a short term top is in place. Or it could be that the rally is over and we head lower from here. We'll have to see what happens. Gold lost $6 today and the XAU fell 2 1/2 points. It wasn't too bad as the dollar had a pretty good day. ABX and NEM were lower, heavy volume in ABX. GG bucked the trend and was up on the day. I still have the ABX calls but they're losers. Will have to go into cut the loss mode unless the ECB meeting sends the dollar back down. GE lost 40 cents on average volume. Not much going on there as has been the case lately. Mentally I feel OK, slept well. Now where do we go from here? Was today just a one day sell-off? Have we begun the sell in May and go away syndrome? I don't have the answers yet. I also do not have an explanation for todays action. Perhaps we are setting up for an expiration week rally. But it would all be a guess at this point. There wasn't a clear technical signal for todays sell-off. At any rate, I've been keeping my eye on gold, with the ABX trade still in play. We held up quite well with the rise in the dollar today. Perhaps the major selling in the gold shares is behind us. Time will tell. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
It was a turnaround Tuesday as the Dow opened up lower by about 100 points and came all the way back to finish up 51. Advance/declines were positive and volume was average. Declines are being bought here for the moment. You cannot fight that because it's a losing battle. I don't have a decent signal one way or the other but I do know we are moving higher and the trend is up. Gold was up about $4 today. The XAU rose 2 3/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher but well off of their highs. ABX came out with good earnings and the stock only rose 1/2. I did have a chance to exit the ABX trade with a small profit and I really should have. The options are now at break even. The only reason I'm holding them is that the stochastic has turned up and is still oversold. Even with that I think I should have gotten out today. I suppose I'll wait for the ECB meeting on Thursday now but time is running out. GE lost 20 cents on average volume. Not much going on there and that's been the story with GE lately. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. Nothing doing at the moment with the OEX but that could change. I don't like being stuck in a nowhere trade, which is the case with ABX. The battle is always with oneself. You do the best you can and move on. That really is what I should do with this trade. If the earnings can't provide the energy to move higher, what will? A fall in the dollar would help but it's been much stronger relatively lately. So I'll just have to go on from here.
Monday, May 05, 2008
Settling things out as the Dow lost 88 points today. Volume was Monday light and the advance/declines were negative. All the indices were lower but not much as Yahoo really led the way down and set the tone. It doesn't feel like a huge decline is coming but who knows? OEX puts aren't doing much. My guess is that we hang around or drift lower before heading higher again. Subject to change as events unfold. Gold had a good day, up over $15. Oversold bounce? maybe. The dollar was a bit weaker and oil was higher too. The XAU rose 5 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher with ABX up over a buck. The ABX calls I own are back to break even. Earnings out tomorrow. I really should just get out tomorrow regardless but we are still oversold there even with todays movement. European Central bank meeting this week could support foreign currencies and send the dollar lower. But that's a guess and the meeting may not even mean anything. GG had good earnings today, opened much higher and never got back to the open price. So I'll see what happens when the ABX earnings come out and go from there. GE was off a touch on light volume. Mentally I feel pretty good, got a good nights sleep. 9 days left in the May option cycle. Not getting a clear buy or sell here for the OEX. Summation index continues higher. Unless I get something solid here it would make sense to lay low. I'll see how the week unfolds and take it from there. Gonna try and not force things but you never know. The focus is on ABX at the moment but that could change tomorrow if I dump the calls. So it's an early day tomorrow and we'll see what transpires.
Friday, May 02, 2008
Up over 100, then down 25 and finally back up 48 points on the day. Volume was lighter, the advance/declines were positive. The employment report wasn't as bad as expected. The trend remains up but I could make a case for a pullback early next week. I may try a trade there for the OEX puts. We'll see. Gold was up over $5 on the futures and the XAU rose 2 3/4 points. Nothing much really and we're oversold. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher with NEM leading the way. NEM leading the charge hasn't been conducive to higher prices lately. Volume was light. The dollar continued higher. The ABX calls I own are still in the red. ABX managed only 20 cents to the upside. Earnings on Tuesday. This trade still has the feel of a loser. Perhaps the earnings will save it but we are oversold and staying there. That's never a positive sign. GG earnings Monday. GE was up 20 cents on light volume. Not much going on there. Mentally I feel OK, slept well. The market seems to be projecting higher prices here. The sell-offs don't last. The summation index continues higher. The economic news that is released is viewed as positive regardless. It's hard to fight that and not worth it either. I'm going to have to remain patient and wait for a decent signal, if one appears at all. I'll be getting out of the ABX trade next week and go from there. The charts will be checked over the weekend and I'll see what I can find. It seems that the money flows have changed and that must be taken into consideration. It's not an easy game but one that changes. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, May 01, 2008
Rally time as the Dow gained 190 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. It looks like we are breaking out to the upside from the longer term weekly down trend line. That could all change tomorrow with the employment report but I don't think it will. We'll see. I've waited quite a while to get to the longer term down trend line in hopes of buying the OEX puts. But the market has other ideas. Always listen to the market. Summation index continues higher. Gold lost $25 on the spot market and $12 or so on the futures. Depends on which gold quote you use. The dollar was much stronger today and money is now flowing out of commodities. Oil was weaker also. The XAU lost 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower on good volume. GG showed the better relative strength. The ABX calls I own are back in the red. Gold itself is at $850 and if it doesn't hold up here it will be going much lower. ABX earnings on Tuesday but even that may not be enough to save this trade. GE was up 40 cents on average volume. Mentally I feel pretty good, slept well. Employment report tomorrow. Perhaps if it's weaker than expected gold could get a pop but it seems as if the macro situation there has changed. Money moves around and it is moving out of gold at the moment. We may get an oversold bounce but we've been oversold and are staying there. That's never a good sign for the bullish case. Also we are seeing money coming out of bonds and into stocks as credit worries subside. As long as there are no surprises that probably will continue for a while. On to the employment report.