Wednesday, May 14, 2008
I'm here a bit early today as I finally bailed out of the ABX trade. It doesn't get any worse than that. It was a 90% loser and let me tell you. You should never have 90% losers. There wasn't a lot of money involved and I'm thinking that could be part of the reason I let it go for so long. But that's really not an excuse because there are no excuses. Discipline was completely lacking here. But we're all human. Had a couple of chances to escape this madness but chose to stay until the bitter end. The buy signal there did work for a short time but the dynamics of of this market have changed. Money is flowing out of gold and the buy signals don't work like they used to. But that doesn't change the fact that this was the worst managed trade of the year so far. The one day reversal on Friday was the key and I saw it but didn't heed it. The blame lies with me. The trouble is that trades like this erode your confidence going forward. And you have to have that confidence to be successful. So it's back to the drawing board. You've just got to admit your mistakes and move on. It's easy to say but hard to do. The Dow gained 66 points today on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up over 150 at one point but sold off in the last couple of hours. The trend still seems to be higher. It is expiration week so some volatility is to be expected. Summation index still moving higher. I do think there will be some type of sell-off in the June option cycle but the timing will be key. Gold lost 3 bucks today and the XAU shed over 3 points. ABX and GG were down while NEM was flat. Volume was light. Interest here has waned. The dollar was up a touch. The inflation data was lower than expected. I guess I'm done with gold now for a while but that could change. The weekly ABX chart is blown out to the downside but we really aren't getting any bounce. At some point, that will change. GE was up fractionally on light volume. That stock is going nowhere. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected with a blowout losing trade. Slept OK. 2 days left on the May cycle, so I won't be doing anything stupid here I think. It's time to regroup and get ready for the next trade. Most likely in the OEX but we'll see.