Monday, November 30, 2009
The Dow gained 35 points to close out the month of November. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was light. So perhaps that is it for the fallout from Dubai. We'll see. I don't expect any big rally from here but you never know. Beginning of the month positive money flows should affect things for the next couple of days as we wait for the employment report on Friday. No OEX trades for now. Gold was up $7 today as the dollar lost a bit of ground. The XAU had a fractional gain. The gold shares were mixed with fractional gains and losses for ABX, GG, NEM. Volume was light. My next trade should be here but I would like to see some consolidation or pullback first. I'm also leaning towards going out to the January calls. Time will tell. Nothing doing for now. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. We're moving into December and I have pretty good losses for the year. There will be no miracle trades to save the day. I'm looking forward to the new year and a fresh start. I still may make another trade before the year ends but things will have to line up just right. I don't have any clear signals at the moment but that could change. On to tomorrow.
Friday, November 27, 2009
What was supposed to be a quiet holiday shortened session was anything but as the Dow lost 154 on very light volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The country of Dubai is threatening to default on its debt. World markets had a tough day on Thanksgiving and the US market mirrored that today. I don't know what it means for Monday but the summation index should be heading south after today. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend. Gold took a hit as well, down $18. The XAU fell 7 1/4. ABX and NEM dropped 1 1/2, while GG lost 2. Volume was light. All were off even more early. The dollar was higher but not as much as you'd expect with a flight to safety move. I'll need to look at these charts over the weekend as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK, trying to get some rest. But obviously with the recent Dubai development, there is much to do. Is this an opportunity to get long or is this the beginning of a long awaited sustained move to the downside? That's the question of the moment. I'm still going to relax for a couple of days and then see what happens Sunday night when the world starts up again. This is probably some type of opportunity. Taking advantage of it is the trick.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Another slow day as the Dow gained 30 points on light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Holiday tomorrow and a shortened session on Friday. It's a waiting game. I'm leaning towards getting some OEX puts with such light volume here lately. We'll see. Gold continues it's climb to the sky, up another $20 as we approach $1200. The XAU gained 5 points. ABX and GG were up a buck , while NEM tacked on 1 1/2. Volume was light. The money continues to go into gold. You cannot fight that. The dollar was weaker today and broke its near term support. We are very overbought in the gold shares and the gold market but there hasn't been any drop. That won't last forever. I'll be taking a look at the gold shares as well. Mentally I'm in stand by mode. There isn't much else to do this week. Relax and try to come up with a game plan for the December option cycle. But there's no hurry.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
The Dow lost 17 points today in light trading. Advance/declines were negative. Just marking time here in my opinion. It's a holiday light week. No trades on the horizon with regards to the OEX. Gold was up a buck and even higher in the aftermarket. The XAU lost a point and change. ABX off 3/4, GG down almost a point and NEM fell 1/4. Volume was average to light. The dollar was flat today. I'd like to get long the gold shares again at some point. I just don't know when that point will be. The money continues to flow into gold and you can't argue with that. However at some point the money will flow out and fast. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. I'm remaining patient here as there is no rush to put on a trade. So it's just a wait and see environment. Tomorrow should be slow with light trading again.
Monday, November 23, 2009
The holiday week started on a positive note as the Dow gained 132 points. The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive and the volume was light. We were oversold and due for a bounce. I don't think it's going to be much more than that. Major overhead resistance is in play now. We will either have a drop here or move sideways in my opinion. We'll see what happens. Gold set another new high today, up $17. The XAU rose 2 3/4. The gold shares were mixed with ABX dropping a touch, while GG was up fractionally and NEM gained a point. Volume was average. The gold shares have been lagging the price of gold lately. I'm going to hold off on the calls for now. The dollar was weaker today and is basically moving sideways like the overall stock market. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, could have slept better. I'm in a wait and see mode at the moment as I do not plan on taking on any positions this holiday week. It's a time for me to be patient. I'll try my best.
Friday, November 20, 2009
We closed the week with a loss of 14 points in the Dow. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. Pretty quiet despite the expiration. Short week coming up and I don't expect a lot of movement. My guess is that the upcoming week will have a positive bias. Summation index heading lower in a sideways band. No OEX trades in the near future. Gold was up $5 and higher in the aftermarket. The XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. The dollar was higher. The gold shares and gold itself are overbought. I'll be looking for a pullback to get long. Perhaps the January calls. But nothing anytime in the next week. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. It's a time to be patient in my opinion. Just let Thanksgiving week pass and go from there. I could be wrong but that will be the game plan. It's the weekend and time for a break.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
The Dow lost some ground today as it fell 93 points. It was worse than that but you can't keep this market down so it seems. Volume was average and the advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. We're still in a sideways mode in my opinion. The summation index should move back to the downside with todays action. We're going to be oversold here with regards to the market soon if not already. No time to be taking on any big or even small positions. Holiday week to follow. Gold sold off and came back, finishing the day flat. The XAU gained a point. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on light volume. The dollar was higher today. There's no keeping the gold shares down at this point. They sold off and came all the way back. Good relative strength compared to the overall market as well. It won't last forever but that is the scenario at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No trades on the horizon at the moment. I think that I'll let next week pass and take it from there. Perhaps the gold shares if we get a pullback. Expiration tomorrow and we'll see how it goes.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Tried to sell off again and the Dow only lost 11 points. Advance/declines were negative again and the volume was nothing special. Moving sideways here basically but that could change soon. Not that I have any idea of which way we'll go. Summation index still heading higher. No OEX trades in the works and I'll consider it a victory if I don't make a trade before Fridays expiration. Gold ended up a couple of bucks but was higher early. The XAU lost 2 3/4. ABX lost 1 1/3, GG off 2/3 and NEM dropped a touch. Volume was average. These shares really need to take a rest and I am no longer looking at the calls there. For now that is. If we get a decent pullback then I am ready to try that trade again. The dollar lost ground today as it is also basically moving sideways here as well. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired today. Just a couple days left before the expiration and then a holiday week. I think it's time to be relaxed and take it easy. Perhaps there will be a good trade for the December cycle but there is not reason to put it on now. No clear signals and most everything is overbought. So I'm going to try and sit tight for now.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Opened lower and closed higher as the Dow gained 30 points. Nothing seems to stop the market at this point. Volume was weak however and the advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still heading higher. There's usually a positive bias during expiration week and we've seen that so far. I'm trying not to make a trade here but I am leaning to the short side. Risk is very high with 3 days to go though. Gold also sold off and came back to be unchanged on the day. The XAU was up a point. ABX gained a buck, GG was flat and NEM rose about 1/2. Volume was light. The dollar had a bounce and the gold shares hung in there pretty well despite that. I'd love to try something on the long side here as well but again, there's only 3 days to go. So hopefully I'll just ride this week out on the sidelines and go from there. But you never know. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well again. Trying my best to not do anything stupid here. Holiday week coming up as well. Patience is king at the moment. The stock market continues higher and it looks like that is the path of least resistance. Volume hasn't been that good lately and that would be a concern going forward if it doesn't pick up. So we'll see.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Expiration week begins with a decent gain as the Dow was up 136 points. Volume was average while the advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index will be back to the upside and the path of least resistance will be higher. Unless something dramatically changes in the near term. I have no OEX trades in mind here. Gold made another new all time high, up $22. The XAU rose 5 1/4 points. All the gold shares that I follow here were higher with NEM leading the way, up 1 1/4. ABX was up over a buck and GG remains the laggard gaining 2/3. Volume was average. The dollar continues lower and there is nothing to stop the long gold trade from working at this point. We are extremely overbought on gold though both short and medium term. We should at least see some sideways action here soon. That could be the opportunity to get long some January calls. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. I'll try and not do anything stupid this week but you never know. The short term time frames are not my best. That said if something catches my eye I may put on a trade. But the risk is high and perhaps the sidelines will be where I'll stay. Thanksgiving week coming up next so there will be no rush to try the December options. We'll look for follow through in the market tomorrow.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Back to the upside as the Dow gained 93 points. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive and the volume was light again. Moving sideways for now as the market decides which way to go. Option expiration week coming up. It's a tough call just which way we will go here. The prudent thing to do is to stay on the sidelines until there is a decent signal. That's the way I'm leaning right now. Could change over the weekend. Gold was back up as well, $10 to the plus side. The XAU rose 3 1/2. ABX and GG gained a buck, while NEM led the way again, up over 1 1/4. Volume was average for lately. Not sure I'll try the gold share calls here now but you never know. The optimum time has passed really. The dollar was back down today. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. With 5 days to go on this option cycle, the trading gets compressed and that really isn't my best time frame. But what is, this year? It looks like we could just have a sideways period next week. The summation index is not trending at the moment either. The smart thing to do could be just wait and see. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is to do nothing. So I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. Time for a couple days off and some rest.
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Finally a little decline as the Dow lost 93 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index should be pointing down now again. Perhaps we are just starting to work off the short term overbought condition. Expiration week looms though. The smart play for me here is probably to stay on the sidelines. That doesn't mean I will though. Gold took a drop too, down $8 on the futures. The XAU fell almost 5 points. ABX and GG both lost over a buck while NEM led the way down, off 1 1/2. Volume was average. If I'm going to try the gold share calls, this could be the place to try. I may leave in an overnight order. It's risky though. The dollar had a good day and that figures into the mix. 6 days left on the November options. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. We've gotten some decline today. The question is whether it's just a short term move before we head higher next week or something else. I'll have to look at things tonight and figure out if a trade here is worth the risk.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
The Dow continues higher, gaining another 44 points. Volume remains on the light side. Advance/declines were positive. Just how much higher will we go before we at least get some type of pullback? Not much in my opinion but I'm not looking to get short here. There obviously is plenty of money around looking for a home. Expiration week coming up as well and that usually has a positive bias. Gold was up $15 today but the gold shares lagged. The XAU rose a point. NEM was up 3/4 but ABX and GG only had fractional moves. All were much higher early. Volume was average. I might still try the gold share calls if we get a pullback. Or not. The dollar opened lower and closed higher. But it wasn't dramatic and the trend there is still down. Mentally I'm feeling better, slept OK. 7 days until the November expiration. The market is overbought here and staying that way. I don't think getting some OEX puts here is the correct play but I could be wrong. Perhaps on a short term basis. I'm on the sidelines for now.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
The Dow tried to sell off today but instead gained another 20 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. We're still overbought here but that doesn't mean we won't stay that way. No OEX trades for now. I'd look for some weakness near term. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. But the market will go where it wants. Gold was up a buck and the XAU rose 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM all moved fractionally on good volume. The gold shares tried to sell off and came back as well. I still may try the gold share calls for November again. We are overbought here as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Did not feel well last night and took the last half of today off. Luckily the market didn't do much today. Still not feeling 100%. Will try and rest up tonight and get back at it tomorrow.
Monday, November 09, 2009
Powering to the upside to start the week as the Dow gained 203 points. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive however the volume was light. This rally has everything but volume but you cannot argue with price. Todays action should turn the summation index higher and the trend will be to the upside. We are short term overbought here. But I would not try to short things here. Gold was up another $5 today and the gold shares soared with the XAU up 7 points. ABX and NEM were up around 1 1/2, while GG was the star of the day, up 2 3/4. All on heavy volume. The trend here is up but we are short term overbought as well. If we get any pullback I'll try the gold shares calls again for November. The dollar got clobbered today and that trend remains down. Money is and has been flowing into gold. That's the play for now. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept longer. It looks like we will head higher into the November expiration unless something dramatically changes here. I am lamenting getting stopped out of the GG trade. I did have a feeling of it possibly being a super trade and it could have been. But I have to move on and I am. It's happened before. It does let you know that there are excellent money making opportunities in the game. That's why we play.
Friday, November 06, 2009
The Dow gained 17 points today after the employment report. Volume looks to be a bit light again and the advance/declines were about even. The employment report has come and gone. It really didn't do much to the market when all was said and done. The summation index is trying to turn around here. We'll see if it does. Overbought now on a short term basis. Gold continues to the upside gaining another $6. The XAU rose 3 points. ABX and GG gained about a buck. NEM up 1 3/4. Volume was good. The dollar didn't do much. The gold shares are overbought as well but continue higher. I'll try the calls again if we get any type of pullback. Money is flowing there. Mentally I'm a bit tired today. I did have a winning trade this week but it should have been much better. There's still 2 weeks to go on the November options and I'll probably try something else. But you never know. I need to do the work over the weekend and get ready to be focused on next week. My thinking is we will get some type of pullback in the overall market next week and then head higher into the expiration. Barring some unforeseen event. The weekend has arrives and it's time for a break.
Thursday, November 05, 2009
A pre-employment report rally as the Dow gained 203 points on lighter than lately volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. I expected a wait and see type of day but no. Does this bode well for the report tomorrow? We'll see. Summation index trying to turn back up. Perhaps the decline is over. Still 2 weeks left on the options for November. We'll have to see if there is follow through tomorrow. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU rose a point. ABX and GG had fractional moves to the upside, while NEM was flat. Volume was lighter than usual. The GG earnings had a muted effect. I may try the gold shares one more time here in November. If we get a bit of a pullback in gold. Could be risky though. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. With the action in the overall stock market this week it appears that the decline is over. Once the summation index turns up we should move to new recovery highs. I'm not sure gold will follow, considering we gained 200 points today and the gold shares barely budged. So there's things to think about as usual. I was considering trying some GE calls here as well. But let's see tomorrows report and reaction first.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
We opened up strong and rallied after the Fed but then gave most of it back. The Dow gained 30 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up well over 100 points a couple of times. The Fed said nothing new so now we wait for the employment report on Friday. Summation index still pointing down but it might be trying to turn up soon. The overall market was weaker today as we flip flop with that scenario day after day. Gold had another good day and another record high. We were up $8 in the aftermarket. The XAU only gained 1 1/3. The gold shares were mixed with ABX and NEM up about a buck on strong volume. GG was the laggard and lost 1/4 on good volume. GG was weak all day ahead of the earnings and I was stopped out of the GG call trade. I moved the stop up after seeing the weakness. I kind of wish I still was in the trade. The dollar was weaker today and should head even lower. Gold is rallying strong. GG was weak all day and my stop was barely hit. The trade gained about 150% but I feel it could and should have been much more. Who knows, I may try it again before expiration. Not sure why GG was the weakest of the bunch but that's the one that I owned and you just have to deal with it. We'll see how it reacts to the earnings. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. The market remains volatile here. Might stay that way for a while. I wouldn't expect much movement tomorrow ahead of the employment report but anything can happen. I'll try to put the GG trade behind me and move on. It was one of the rare winners for this year.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
It was pretty much a sideways day as the Dow lost 17 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. It looks like we are waiting on the Fed tomorrow. Summation index still heading lower. Technically we're still a bit oversold on a short term basis but I believe anything can happen here. The internals are the opposite of yesterday, with the overall market stronger than the Dow. So we'll see what the Fed says and how the market reacts. Gold had a stellar day and broke out to a new high, up $30. The XAU rose 10 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over 2 1/2 on heavy volume. All of a sudden the gold shares are looking better. A nice move higher on expanding volume and that is bullish. My GG calls are now firmly into the black. The dollar was higher today and it didn't matter to gold. We're not overbought on the gold shares yet but now the problem is just how long do I hold onto these calls. We've still got 2 1/2 weeks on the options. Looks like I'll be holding on to the calls through the earnings announcement tomorrow after the close. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept more. I still think that the market is in a precarious position here. And that will affect what happens in the gold shares. However todays action points to higher prices near term. I also can make a case for a much higher target for the gold shares here that would turn my trading year around. But that's a stretch. None the less, it is a possibility.
Monday, November 02, 2009
Volatility has returned as the Dow was up well over 100 points, gave it all back and then some, only to return to the upside. We gained 76 points on the first day of the month. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was pretty good. The overall market was not as strong as the Dow and that isn't bullish going forward. Summation index still pointing down. We've got a Fed announcement in a couple of days and the employment report on Friday. It could be one of those fasten your seat belts type of week. The trading becomes compressed, with violent moves in both directions. It could be that kind of week. Gold had a good day, up almost $20 and near an all-time high. However the gold shares did not follow with the XAU only gaining 1 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on heavy volume. They were up good early and gave it all back. That really isn't the type of price action that is bullish either. My GG calls are still slightly in the black. Anything could happen. The gold shares are following the overall market. The dollar sold off early today and also came back when the market tanked halfway through the day. This GG call trade is becoming hard to hold on to. Plus we have the earnings out after the close on Wednesday. At this rate I am probably going to wait for the earnings. But I'm not sure. The technicals are still oversold but they could just stay there. It never gets easy in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept pretty good. The markets are starting to act a little crazy again. It makes for tough trading. There's no reason why I can't just get out of this trade and hit the sidelines. Except for the fact that you don't make any money that way. But you don't lose any either. We'll see what tomorrow brings.