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Monday, November 02, 2009

Volatility has returned as the Dow was up well over 100 points, gave it all back and then some, only to return to the upside. We gained 76 points on the first day of the month. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was pretty good. The overall market was not as strong as the Dow and that isn't bullish going forward. Summation index still pointing down. We've got a Fed announcement in a couple of days and the employment report on Friday. It could be one of those fasten your seat belts type of week. The trading becomes compressed, with violent moves in both directions. It could be that kind of week. Gold had a good day, up almost $20 and near an all-time high. However the gold shares did not follow with the XAU only gaining 1 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on heavy volume. They were up good early and gave it all back. That really isn't the type of price action that is bullish either. My GG calls are still slightly in the black. Anything could happen. The gold shares are following the overall market. The dollar sold off early today and also came back when the market tanked halfway through the day. This GG call trade is becoming hard to hold on to. Plus we have the earnings out after the close on Wednesday. At this rate I am probably going to wait for the earnings. But I'm not sure. The technicals are still oversold but they could just stay there. It never gets easy in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept pretty good. The markets are starting to act a little crazy again. It makes for tough trading. There's no reason why I can't just get out of this trade and hit the sidelines. Except for the fact that you don't make any money that way. But you don't lose any either. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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