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Monday, November 16, 2009

Expiration week begins with a decent gain as the Dow was up 136 points. Volume was average while the advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. The summation index will be back to the upside and the path of least resistance will be higher. Unless something dramatically changes in the near term. I have no OEX trades in mind here. Gold made another new all time high, up $22. The XAU rose 5 1/4 points. All the gold shares that I follow here were higher with NEM leading the way, up 1 1/4. ABX was up over a buck and GG remains the laggard gaining 2/3. Volume was average. The dollar continues lower and there is nothing to stop the long gold trade from working at this point. We are extremely overbought on gold though both short and medium term. We should at least see some sideways action here soon. That could be the opportunity to get long some January calls. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. I'll try and not do anything stupid this week but you never know. The short term time frames are not my best. That said if something catches my eye I may put on a trade. But the risk is high and perhaps the sidelines will be where I'll stay. Thanksgiving week coming up next so there will be no rush to try the December options. We'll look for follow through in the market tomorrow.

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