The inflation data came in where expected but it was the earnings reports that drove the market today as the Dow rose 153 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving sideways. We had a gap up at the open and things moved higher from there. The NASDAQ was by far the leader today as it was up over 300 points. It appears that the recent deline has ended but the S&P 500 is still below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators for the S&P are now mid-range. It is just below the down trend line that is now in place on the daily chart. Another day like today will get us through. Gold was up $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dropped slightly. The XAU was up 1 1/2, while GDX added 1/4. Volume was average. I still am in favor of the GDX May calls if we see some pullback next week. The short term indicators here are north of mid-range. GDX is overbought on a longer term basis though. However it seems as though money continues to find a home in the gold shares and we cannot ignore that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits an up market. Still above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Getting below those levels would be a plus for the bulls and imply higher stock prices going forward. Three weeks to go in the May option cycle. We've got the end of the month next week along with a Fed meeting and the jobs report. Earnings are ongoing as well. So there will be plenty of excuses for the markets to move. We'll be going over all the charts as usual to try and come up with some sort of game plan. Europe and Asia finished higher with the exception of India. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Volatility made a comeback today as the Dow fell 375 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. We had a huge gap down at the open as it looked as though things were going to fall apart. But they didn't. After the first half hour the market climbed higher the rest of the day to cut the losses. The Dow was the under performer on the session. GDP came in light and META disappointed on its earnings report. The S&P 500 finished well off of its lows for the day. The short term indicators look like they are beginning to stall. But the fact that it held up today I think bodes well going forward for the bulls. We'll see what happens with the inflation news tomorrow. Gold was up $6 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continued to rise. The gold shares had a stellar day as the XAU climbed 4 1/8 while GDX jumped over 1 1/8. Volume was very heavy to the upside. The gold indices were helped by NEM rising 12% on its earnings numbers. The short term indicators for GDX are now moving higher. I canceled my open order for the GDX May calls as I've missed this move higher. I might decide to chase things here as money continues to pour into the gold shares. Gone and already forgotten was the seventy dollar drop in gold on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as my order for the GDX May calls this week wasn't filled. Perhaps I just did not place it properly but there is plenty of time left in the May option cycle. Al least the idea is working as we cannot deny the interest in gold the past couple of months. The VIX was down today which doesn't fit with a down market. Getting to short term oversold on the technical indicators. Still above the 50 and 200 moving averages on the VIX. Not sure what to expect next here. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower in last nights trade. We'll check the market reaction to the inflation data tomorrow.

Back to hanging around again as the Dow lost 42 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trying to turn around. Not much movement in the major averages with the exception of the TRAN which had a big drop. The S&P 500 remains below its 50 day moving average but the short term indicators have turned back up. GDP out tomorrow and that may be a market mover. More so the inflation data out on Friday. Remaining patient for now with regards to the SPY May options. Gold fell $10 on the futures. The US dollar was up slightly along with interest rates. Both the XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume. My open order for the GDX May calls remains out there. The gold shares are holding up for now despite the drop in gold itself. That should be a plus going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today. Not sure what's next here for the VIX. Volatility has come down from recent levels as it seems like the market is simply waiting for Fridays inflation numbers. Asia higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Continuing higher as the Dow rose 263 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Once again the NASDAQ led the way and that's a plus. Is the recent decline over? Probably. We can't rule out a retest of the lows and that would tell the story. But some indicators reached extremes last week. Perhaps the major selling is over. The S&P 500 is still below its 50 day moving average but the short term indicators have turned back up. It is still short term oversold but not as much as before. Earnings have a chance to keep things afloat. But we'll have to wait and see how the rest of this week plays out. Gold lost $9 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates had a minor dip. The XAU added over 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2. The gold shares up with gold itself down is a plus for the gold bulls. Volume was a bit above average for the gold shares. My open order for the GDX May calls wasn't filled and I'm leaving it out there. My hope is that GDX trends sideways to down in the near term and the order gets filled. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are oversold but not extremely so. There is plenty of time left in the May option cycle that we will be patient with this idea for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators there moved lower as well. The VIX remains above both its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll see how things go on Wednesday.

Finally got a bounce today as the Dow was up 253 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is slowing its descent. The NASDAQ led the way higher but stock indices did finish well off of the best levels on the day. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold but the indicators here have turned up for now. Sometimes the Monday after option expiration moves in the opposite direction of Fridays activity. That could be what occurred today. We'll know more as the week goes on. Plenty of big tech earnings this week. We'll also get a look at 1st quarter GDP along with inflation data later in the week. Option premiums are expensive so we'll remain on the sidelines for now with respect to the SPY. Gold plunged today as the futures fell seventy bucks. The US dollar finished flat as did interest rates. The XAU lost 5 points, while GDX shed 1 1/2. Volume was heavy to the downside. The gold shares had a gap lower to start the day and never recoverd. The up trend line that began in March for GDX was broken. The short term indicators here are moving lower but not yet oversold. That said, I did place an open order for the GDX May calls and I'm leaving it out there. It would not be a surprise for GDX to head back to the down trend line that it broke on the weekly chart a few weeks ago. That comes in at around a point or so from todays close. GDX would have to drop down there for my option order to be filled. That is the next trade on our radar, subject to change as conditions change of course. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an up market. The short term indicators on the VIX are moving lower and are about mid-range. The VIX looks like it wants to continue down on the daily chart which would benefit stocks. But I haven't had a good feel for the VIX lately. Plus stocks did not exactly finish on a robust note today. We'll see. Europe and Asia were up to start the trading week. I'll keep an eye out on the overnight developments.

The overall market continued lower but the Dow managed a gain of 220 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading down. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow. The NASDAQ led the way down again and was off over 300 points. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and is at indicator extremes. Buyers are nowhere to be found. Fears about geo-political conflict have taken over the markets. Markets that don't bounce after reaching oversold can be dangerous. Although the Dow saw some upside the smaller stocks did not and that's a problem going forward. We are on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up $4 on the futures after being much higher during the session. The US dollar finished flat as did most interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on about average volume. Some of the short term indicators for GDX are mid-range and the short term up trend line remains intact. I still like the idea of the GDX calls going forward but will try and wait for a signal before trying them again. GDX is overbought on both a short and medium term basis. However in strong uptrends these conditions can last for a while. If we see some weakness next week perhaps we'll try the calls here again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but well off its highest levels on the session that took it above the important 20 level. The short term indicators here remain overbought but not have turned lower. Not sure what's next for the VIX. An interesting week as the market kept dropping and we never did see any kind of sustained bounce for stocks. But the market knows things that we do not. Moving into the May option cycle next week. We'll be checking the charts and keeping an eye on the news headlines as the weekend goes by. Europe finished mixed and Asia was lower with the exception of India to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Another day of hanging around as the Dow rose 22 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even again. The summation index is moving down. The NASDAQ led the way lower again as well. Still waiting for the long overdue bounce. The S&P 500 finished in the red remains short term oversold. Could the bounce come tomorrow? Perhaps. I did think about getting the SPY April calls near the close but with only Friday to go in the April option cycle I didn't do it. I could certainly make a technical case for giving it a shot. But the short term trades are not my best efforts and we'll roll into the May option cycle with regards to the SPY. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume. The gold shares finished off of their best levels on the day. I sold my GDX April calls for a gain of 50% and it should have been twice that. The exit this morning was horrible as I did not execute it the way I had planned. This trade had a mediocre entry and a terrible exit. I really need to get better at the short term stuff or simply avoid it. I think one of the reasons I looked at the SPY April calls today was because of the lousy end to this trade. That could be a recipe for disastor because win or lose you have to move on. Where you get in and where you get out will determine success or failure in this game. You certainly cannot let one trade affect the next. We know these things yet the struggle persists. It is the nature of the game. Mentally I'm frustrated from my effort and results of the GDX call trade. But it doesn't matter now. The up trend line for GDX on the daily chart reamins intact for now. The VIX was lower again today which doesn't fit with the overall market weakness. Not sure what to make of it. Asia and Europe finished higher with the exception of India. We'll close out the trading week on expiration Friday tomorrow.

Still moving down with no bounce to be found as the Dow lost 45 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market was much lower than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. Short term oversold and staying that way for the S&P 500 and that could be troublesome as we should have seen some kind of upside bounce by now. The TRAN has broken down. The McClellan oscillator is very negative and staying there which doesn't usually happen. Not sure what to think here but there's only two days to go in the April option cycle so trading the SPY options is not something we are going to do here. Would think that the calls would be the way to go in the short term but that obviously wouldn't have worked out this week so far. Gold was off almost twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU rose 1 3/4, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains good here. The opposite of yesterday as today gold was down and the gold shares were up. The short term indicators for GDX are still mid-range. My GDX April calls are still showing a profit and are running out of time. GDX did finish off from the best levels of the session. I suppose we'll give them one more day but I should be out of this trade tomorrow. The up trend line in GDX has held for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that still doesn't fit with a down market. The VIX remains short term overbought. Not sure what is going on in the stock market at the moment as buyers are scarce. The usual positive expiration week bias hasn't shown up. The market knows more than we do though. Should have seen some kind of bounce this week but so far it hasn't happened. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Stocks tried to bounce today but it was mostly in the Dow as the most watched index gained 63 points on average volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving down. Every attempt at buying today was met with sellers. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted small losses. The S&P is now short term oversold so I'm expecting some kind of attempt at a bounce here soon. The S&P 500 is below its 50 day moving average and now has a down trend line in place. The McClellan oscillator is very negative here and it usually doesn't stay that way for long. So we should at least see some short term upside for stocks in the near future. Gold was up $23 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2. Volume remains good for the gold shares. Gold up and the gold shares down is not a positive. GDX has closed right on its up trend line at the 33 level after breaking well below it early on. I did leave my open order for the GDX April calls out there and it was filled this morning. The entry was not that great and I could have done better. Plenty of risk with this trade as we only have three days to go. I'm counting on the up trend line holding things for GDX but it certainly didn't this morning. The trade is showing a slight profit as of the close today. I'm not sure how long I will hold it but probably will be selling it sooner rather than later. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with an overall lower market. It remains short term overbought. I don't know what to expect next from this indicator. We are in the next trade which won't last longer than the end of this week. Hopefully the market will see a bounce and take the gold shares with it. But we don't trade on hope. If the up trend line for GDX remains valid this trade will work out. If not it will be a loser. The short term indicators for GDX are about mid-range so we believe the trade has a shot. I could be wrong. Europe and Asia sold off last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We had a one day reversal to the downside today as the market gapped up at the open only to turn around and drop for the rest of the session. The Dow fell 248 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way down. Not a good start to the week as the positive option expiration bias is nowhere to be found. The S&P 500 is almost at short term oversold. It closed below the 50 day moving average today. It's due for a bounce but at this point that is probably all it will be. We can make a case for support at the 5000 level but beyond that it would be 4800. No trades in mind for the SPY here. Gold rose $29 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates were up as well. The XAU dipped 1 3/8, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume remains heavy for the gold shares. I did put in an order for the GDX April calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it out there but the risk is high with only four days left in the April option cycle. GDX did make it down to the up trend line at 33 this morning and bounced. I'm hoping for another trip to that line and it holding again to get my option order filled. If GDX breaks the line this trade won't work. GDX is still overbought so the risk is more than usual plus the April options will expire on Friday. I'll reconsider what to do overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up and closed above the 19 level. It is almost completely short term overbought. Not sure what it will do tomorrow but stocks should see a bounce soon. Sellers have the upper hand for now. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher with the exception of the FTSE. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Selling from the start today with a gap lower as buyers were nowhere to be found. The Dow lost 475 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is moving lower. The NASDAQ led the way down today. Not sure exactly what is going on here but the market always knows more than we do. Geo-political tensions will probably be the excuse for todays drop. The S&P 500 is getting to short term oversold and is almost at its 50 day moving average. I thought that we would build on yesterdays rise but I was wrong. I suppose we should have taken our cues from the summation index but hindsight is usually correct. We keep moving on from here though with a week to go in the April option cycle. Pretty sure that we'll have to stay on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold had a dramatic one day downside reversal as the futures fell a dozen after being up around $75. The XAU lost 2 1/2 and GDX shed almost 3/4. The gold shares were also much higher early on. Volume exploded as everybody here headed for the exits. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dipped in what looks like a flight to safety. All good things come to an end and this could be it to the upside for the gold shares and gold for now. However there is the short term up trend line for GDX that comes in at the 33 level. If we get down there on Monday I will be tempted to try the GDX April calls for a short term trade. Very risky though as we saw today just how fast markets can turn one way or the other. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher but finished off of its highest levels for the day. The short term indicators here have now turned back up and are not yet overbought. I have not had a good handle on what the VIX has been implying lately. I'm not about to try and guess what will happen here next with the VIX. We'll keep an eye on it though. Quite an interesting session today for the markets. We'll have our work cut out for us when checking the charts over the weekend. There is something going on, we just don't know what it is. I'll be watching the weekend headlines a bit more closely. Europe was mixed and Asia lower with the exception of Japan to finish the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

To the upside today for the broader market but the Dow had a loss of two points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving lower. After a brief morning sell off stocks took off higher. The S&P 500 had a decent gain and the NASDAQ was up over 250. The Dow was the laggard. The inflation data came in about where expected and not as hot as we thought. The S&P is now mid-range in a channel that it has been constructing for the past month. The Bollinger bands continue to get tighter so a big move is forthcoming. Which way is the question. The short term indicators for the S&P are mid-range as well so you can make the case for either direction. Perhaps we'll get a burst higher from here for option expiration week to new all time highs. Or maybe the bears will finally take control. Sideways is the only other choice. We just don't have a good signal right now for the SPY options so we'll remain on the sidelines with regards to that. Gold jumped $44 on the futures today. It has taken on a life of its own. The US dollar finished unchanged and interest rates were a touch higher. The XAU was up 1 7/8, while GDX rose 3/4. Volume was average. My order for the GDX calls wasn't filled and I canceled it. GDX remains extremely short term overbought. The volume was lighter today which leads me to believe that perhaps this dramatic move higher is running out of steam. However the rally in the gold shares is so strong you really don't know where it will end. I would like to try the GDX April puts again but that may not be the smartest thing to do here. It could be that we might have to let the April option cycle run its course without a trade. We only saw a one day decline in GDX on the sell signal that was triggered. I'll consider what to do overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today after hitting a new recent high in the morning. The daily chart here looks like it wants to go lower. The short term indicators on the VIX are pointing down with room to go. It is implying higher stock prices in the near term. So perhaps we'll see the rally in stocks return as liquidity could come back into the market. That's just a guess as technically things appear to be about even right now. However the big move in the NASDAQ today could be a sign of things to come as another day like today would lead it to new all time highs. Asia was mixed and Europe lower again in the overseas trade. I would expect those markets to follow the US higher on Friday. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The inflation data came in a little hot and markets sold off as the Dow fell 422 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 6 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to moving lower. Much of the decline came early in the day with sideways activity for the rest of the session. It could have been worse but it wasn't. The Dow was the under performer today. The TRAN and the Russell 2000 had a big drop. The S&P 500 is getting to short term oversold. Tomorrows PPI should be above expectations as well so we'll have to wait and see how the markets respond to that. I'm beginning to think that the decline here will be more sideways than down. Gold was off $14 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates spiked up. The gold shares sold off at the open but then came back as the demand just doesn't stop. The XAU fell around 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2 after being down over a point. Volume was good. My order for the GDX April puts wasn't filled and I canceled it. GDX remains short term overbought but I am putting in an order for the GDX April calls again. It might get filled if we see another spike down for GDX tomorrow morning. The sell signal that one of our indicators gave for GDX was valid but it doesn't look to be long lasting in this case. It appears to me that the gold market is taking on a life of its own and we'll try to take advantage of that. I could be wrong. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators here are turning back up. Not sure what's next for the VIX but it is above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It was a back and forth session ahead of tomorrows inflation data and the Dow finished the day with a loss of 9 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower but now trying to turn back up. The market opened higher, then had a steep morning sell off only to come back in the final hour of the day. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posted gains. My open order for the SPY April puts wasn't filled and I canceled the order. The short term indicators for the S&P remain at mid-range so it could go either way tomorrow. I still believe that the inflation data will come in above expectations and expect a market sell off. But the technical set up isn't clear so I'll have to remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold was up $17 on the futures. The US dollar finished unchanged and interest rates were lower. The XAU gained 3 points and GDX was up 5/8. Volume continues to be good for the gold shares. I am taking the risk here and put in an order for the GDX April puts which I am leaving open overnight. GDX will have to rise some tomorrow for this trade to be filled. This is a better technical set up and GDX is extremely short term overbought. We are also getting a sell signal on another of our short term indicators for GDX. But that doesn't mean that GDX can't simply remain overbought which is possible considering all of the money coming into this sector at the moment. How GDX reacts to the inflation data remains to be seen. We'll see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX bounced around today but did finish lower. The short term indicators have rolled over. The VIX is implying higher stock prices going forward but I'm not so sure about that myself. Running out of time on the April option cycle with a week and a half to go. Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight. We'll see how the inflation data looks and the markets reaction to it on Wednesday.

Running in place today as we basically had a sideways affair. The Dow fell 11 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower. Most stock indices finished flat as the market is apparently waiting for the inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday. The S&P 500 was little changed with the short term indicators here at mid-range. I did place an order for the SPY April puts that I'm leaving out there overnight. It will take some gains in the market tomorrow to get filled. I would like to own the puts ahead of the inflation news but the premiums remain high. The data could be positive for the market which would make owning the puts a losing proposition. But I'm expecting the CPI to come in hotter than expected along with the PPI. I could be wrong. Gold was up $11 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates a bit higher. The gold shares stalled today. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on above average volume. If I do not get the SPY April puts tomorrow I may try the GDX April puts instead. This would certainly entail much risk as so much money is pouring into gold and the gold shares at the moment. However one of our indicators for GDX is at the point where things normally turn around and head lower. We'll look again at this again tonight and decide what to do. I also don't want to put on a trade just to make a trade. But we can be pretty certain that the markets are going to get moving on Wednesday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and the short term indicators here have turned down or are in the process. This is another reason to be cautious with regards to the market downside prognosis going forward. Perhaps the inflation data will in fact be worse than expected and the market shruggs it off. Trying the SPY puts here doesn't have the best technical set up. The trading is never easy. Europe was up and Asia generally higher to begin the trading week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Bouncing back as the Dow rose 307 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving lower. The jobs report was better than expected and markets rallied. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are turning back up. Does the rally simply continue from here? That is the question and I'm not so sure. Today could be just the beginning of a snap back to the recently broken up trend line. The weak volume provides a clue there. Inflation data out next week and my idea says the numbers will be high. But we'll have to see what the expectations are. How the market reacts to the data on Wednesday and Thursday will determine the path for next week. I'm looking at the SPY April puts but the technical set up is not as solid as I would want. Gold just continues to power higher regardless of the data. The futures there climbed $34. The US dollar was up but off from the best levels on the day. Interest rates rose. So as you can see for gold it doesn't seem to matter what rates, the dollar or the stock market is doing. The XAU was up 3 3/4 and GDX climbed over a buck. Volume was heavy and the money just pours in to the gold shares. GDX is extremely short term overbought and about as far away from its 50 day moving average as it can get. Can it get move overbought? Yes. Can it get further away from the 50 day moving average? Sure. But the gold shares along with gold are moving straight up. And we all know how that ends. The trouble is you don't exactly know where and when it will turn around. That said, I am now looking at the GDX April puts for a short term trade. We already missed this leg up in GDX but it has to run out of steam at some point. The problem is that so much money is behind this move trying the puts could be the equivalent of stepping in front of a freight train. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was lower today but still closed above its upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators are trying to turn down. Not sure what to expect next here for the VIX but moving lower seems to be the most likely probability. That would coincide with stocks moving back up. There will be plenty to ponder when going over the charts this weekend. There's still two weeks to go in the April option cycle so plenty of time for some type of trade. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a dramatic one day downside reversal for the Dow as it gapped up to start the day only to roll over and finished with a loss of 530 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to move lower. Sellers took over halfway through the session and didn't stop. The short term up trend line for the S&P 500 has been broken. The short term indicators there have rolled over and are heading down with room to go. I had been looking at the SPY April puts but it may be too late. Perhaps the market knows more about tomorrows employment numbers than we do. Or maybe things bounce back tomorrow like today never happened. It will be interesting, that much we can count on. Gold was off ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU dropped 1 2/3, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume remains good for the gold shares. GDX remains short term overbought. I still want to try the GDX April calls if we get some pullback within the next couple of weeks. GDX remains pretty far from its 50 day moving average and that condition won't last forever. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped and closed above its upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators for the VIX are getting to short term overbought but not completely there yet. Yesterday the VIX daily chart had the appearance of wanting to go lower but in fact did just the opposite. Not everything appears as it is and the indicators move where they want just like the market. We can only put the probabilities on our side but thay won't work every time. Europe and Asia were mixed in the overnight trade. We'll see how the market reacts to the employment data tomorrow.

An up and down session today as the Dow dropped 43 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is an upward sloping sideways channel. The overall market was positive but not by much. It has been a weak start to the month of April. The S&P 500 is still on the overbought side. The Bollinger bands are contracting which forecasts that a big move is coming. Which way is the question. Still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options. Gold continues to climb as the futures gained $35. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU was up 3 3/4, while GDX added 3/4. Volume remains plenty good to the upside for the gold shares. Overbought to the extreme on GDX as we will wait for some kind of selling before attempting the GDX calls again. I missed this move for sure and it isn't a good feeling. Markets don't care and you've just got to keep going in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. The short term indicators are trying to roll over at the mid-range level. This would imply some upside for stocks in the coming days. We'll see. Europe was up and Asia down in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

The day began with a gap lower and finished with negative results. The Dow fell 396 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to a sideways configuration. The market opened down and moved sideways to higher for the rest of the session. The Dow led the way lower again. Not a good start by the bulls for the month of April. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over but they remain short term overbought. If tomorrow continues to the downside you could make a case that the rally is in question but that hasn't happened yet. We are overdue for some kind of decline but haven't seen one for months. We'll know more as the week goes on. Gold continues to attract money as the futures were up $40. The US dollar was lower and interest rates were mixed. The XAU rose 1 3/4 and GDX added 3/8. Volume was good to the upside. Yes I would still like to get some of the GDX April calls. GDX is still short term overbought and pretty far from its 50 day moving average. We'll need to see some kind of pullback before attempting the calls because it is obvious that the train has left the station. However money keeps pouring into gold and that cannot be ignored. Not exactly sure what's going on but we also know things can turn on a dime in the other direction as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did close below the highs on the session. The short term indicators here have turned higher and have room to go. The VIX is now above its 50 day moving average and closed on the 200 day. The daily candlestick chart has the look of wanting to move lower from here though. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Some minor selling to kick off a new month as the Dow fell 240 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall once again. The selling was concentrated in the Dow as the S&P 500 posted a small loss and the NASDAQ had a slight gain. It was a quiet session after a long weekend with some overseas markets still closed. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with the continued up trend. There doesn't seem to be any reason to think that these conditions won't just simply continue. We'll get a break in trend at some point but I certainly don't know when that will be. Waiting on a decent signal one way or the other to try the SPY April options. Gold was higher but off of the best levels on the day. The futures here rose $23. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX was up 3/8. Volume was good. I'd still like to purchase some GDX April calls but we are late to the party. Waiting on some type of pullback as GDX is short term overbought and above its upper Bollinger band on the daily chart. GDX has made it through the long term resistance and the trend is up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but off of its best levels. The short term indicators have turned up but there doesn't seem to be much conviction. The VIX is still below its 50 day moving average. Still a little less than three weeks to go in the April option cycle. Plenty of time to get something done. Some economic data out this week topped by the jobs report on Friday. Plenty of Fed speak also. So we'll see how it goes. Asia was slightly higher with the exception of Japan and Europe was closed. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Continued buying to close out the month and the quarter as the Dow rose 47 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is starting to drift higher. The Dow remained the leader today. The NASDAQ posted a small loss and remains the laggard for now. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought, staying there and closed at an all time high. The liquidity remains abundant as there seems to be plenty of buyers regardless of the circumstances. We'll get inflation data and the Fed chairman tomorrow but the US market will be closed as will others around the globe. So there will be a long holiday weekend to digest whatever comes out. Golds rally continued as the futures were up $28. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished mixed. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 2/3. Volume was good to the upside and GDX has closed above the resistance at 31.25. The gold shares, although short term overbought, should be moving higher from here. We'll try to jump on board next week despite the overbought technical conditions. It is risky though as GDX is now above its upper Bollinger band. However the implications of GDX breaking above its long term resistance line that has been in effect for two years cannot be ignored. It appears that gold and the gold shares are simply heading higher for whatever reasons. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today which doesn't fit with an up market. Still short term oversold on the VIX. Not sure where it's heading next. A long weekend on tap with plenty of time to go over the charts. Our game plan for now is simple. Try and buy some GDX calls next week on any drop in that index. Might be tough if Monday opens higher for gold yet again. We are late on this idea but do think that the gold shares have further to run up ahead of the April option expiration. We'll see. Asia was mixed and Europe barely higher overnight. It's Thursday afternoon and time for a break.

Bouncing back to the upside as the Dow climbed 477 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. Another day like today would do it. The Dow was the leader and that isn't the most bullish scenario going forward. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and closed at another new all time high. The market took off to the upside in the final hour. We've got the end of the month coming up tomorrow before a long holiday weekend. After todays price action you have to figure that we'll keep on moving up. But we'll see. I am going to remain on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up $14 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates were lower. The gold shares followed the overall market higher. The XAU jumped 4 1/4, while GDX added 1 1/8. Volume was good. I canceled my open order for the GDX April calls as the gold shares are now moving up and my order did not have a chance to be filled. We are now on the cusp of breaking the longer term resistance at 31.25 on GDX. This is a move that I will chase if we get through there because the implications for higher gold share prices would be clear. But we haven't gotten through yet. Perhaps yesterday was the day to try those options but hindsight is usually correct. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains short term oversold. The daily chart here looks like it can go lower which would mean that the rally continues. Europe finished higher and Asia was mixed overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

We had one day reversals to the downside for most of the major indices as the Dow fell 31 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving sideways. A gap up to start the day was followed by sideways rangebound trading until a drop in the final hour. The NASDAQ led the way lower but there was no magnitude to the drop. Players are absent as shown by the very light volume totals. The trading week sems to be on holiday for more than just Friday. The short term indicators for the S&P are heading lower but not at a rapid clip. Perhaps we will simply be in a waiting mode until next week. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures after being higher early on. The US dollar finished flat as did interest rates. Markets seem to be just waiting around. The XAU had a fractional loss, while GDX finished flat. Volume was very light again. The gold shares were down from their best levels on the session as well. The short term indicators for GDX are now mid-range. I did place an open order for the GDX April calls but it will take some selling there to be filled. My thinking is that GDX is still digesting the good gains that were made and is possibly forming a bullish flag before moving higher through the longer term 31.25 resistance level. If it can drop back below 29 perhaps my open order will be filled. That's the hope right now but we'll adjust our thoughts as the week moves on. It is also possible that GDX is forming a top here and will move much lower. But I'm really not on board with that scenario right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was barely up today and remains short term oversold. Not sure what to expect next from this indicator. A slow week so far and I suppose that will continue. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

A bit lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 162 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is beginning to track sideways again. The Dow was the leader lower. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over but remain overbought. Not sure what to expect this week as the main events occur on Friday when the market is closed for a holiday. We'll get inflation data and the Fed chairman on the 29th. I am remaining patient or at least trying to with regards to the SPY April options. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU and GDX had fractional moves higher on light volume. The short term indicators for GDX are now mid-range. Waiting for GDX to get short term oversold but don't know if it will get all the way there. Still plenty of time in the April option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was a bit higher today but off from the best levels on the session. Still short term oversold here. Today was somewhat of a listless trading session as it seems as though some traders are taking the short trading week off. So we could be in for a mundane period for the next few days. Asia was generally lower and Europe mixed to start the week. We'll see if things pick up tomorrow.

Digesting the recent gains as the Dow fell 305 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is still trending higher. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ posting a small gain. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. The trend is up and has been for months. There doesn't seem to be anything in the way of still yet higher prices going forward. A holiday shortened week coming up for the US. It might find less players than usual as spring break could come into play. We are patiently waiting for a signal to trade the SPY options. Gold dropped about twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were lower. The XAU slipped 1 2/3 and GDX was off 1/3. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX have now rolled over. I'm still in favor of the GDX April calls but the picture has gotten muddy. We may have to wait for GDX to become short term oversold or maybe forget about this idea for now. We'll consider the choices over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly higher today and remains short term oversold. The daily chart looks like it wants to move higher from here but we'll have to see how it goes at the beginning of next week. We'll check the charts over the weekend to try and come up with some type of game plan for next week. Europe and Asia were mixed to end the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Upside follow through today as the Dow gained 269 points on average volume. The advance/declines were a little better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index has turned back up. The Dow was the leader today. The S&P 500 is short term overbought and closed above its upper Bollinger band. Money continues to pour into stocks. Still waiting on a decent trading signal. Might get one next week if we simply continue higher. Seems to be plenty of liquidity from somewhere. We'll stick with the technicals though. The S&P 500 is long overdue for at least some kind of selling. Tough to figure out when it simply remains overbought. Gold was up over twenty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates finished flat. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on heavy volume. Not exactly sure what to make of that but the gold shares didn't follow gold today. We expect resistance for GDX at 31.25 so perhaps the gold shares will take a rest here before attempting to get through that level. We do want to own the GDX calls on a break higher through the resistance. Still short term overbought on GDX. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX finished just a touch lower after being below its lower Bollinger band early on. Short term oversold for the VIX. You could make a case for a higher VIX tomorrow based on todays daily candlestick chart but we'll just wait and see how the week closes out. Remaining patient for now. Asia and Europe were higher last night following the US market after the Fed. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The Fed chairman spoke and the market liked what it heard as the Dow climbed 401 points to a new record on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ was the leader today and that's a plus. The Bollinger bands on some of the major indexes are getting tight which implies a big move in store. It appears that move will be higher. The S&P 500 set another new all time high and there is no resistance. Short term overbought there but that is nothing new. Nothing but good news for stocks at the moment. Not sure how long it will last but it's usually longer than you think. Gold was up $25 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU gained 4 1/2, while GDX soared almost 1 1/4. Volume was heavy to the upside. I did place an overnight order for the GDX April calls but it didn't come close to getting filled. It appears that I've missed this move for now. Longer term resistance for GDX now comes in at 31.25. We want to be on board with the calls if that resistance is broken. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up but are not completely overbought yet. I'd expect to see some follow through buying there tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and dropped below the support of the 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are now moving down and not yet completely oversold. This implies more near term upside for stocks. Almost touching the lower Bollinger band on the VIX which previously provided a stopping point. With the Fed out of the way what will be the next market mover? Not exactly sure. We'll wait for a decent signal to try the SPY options but it may be a few days. Missing the gains for GDX today is not what we wanted but there's still plenty of time left in the April option cycle. Perhaps this is a move higher that we need to chase. Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Continuing higher ahead of the Fed as the Dow gained 308 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is still in a sideways trend. We got yet another signal from the McClellan oscillator last night for a big move within the next couple of days and today validates that. The Dow was the leader today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. We cannot argue with price though as the S&P 500 closed at a new all time high. Still short term overbought here but not at extremes. We'll have to wait and see what the Fed has to say and the markets reaction. There seems to be no shortage of buyers at the moment. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates slipped a bit. The XAU fell 2 1/2 and GDX lost 2/3. Volume was better than average. The short term indicators for GDX have rolled over with plenty of room to go further. The question now it whether we wait for GDX to get all the way oversold or do we step in and try the April calls there if there's weakness tomorrow? Never easy in this game but we'll ponder the possibilities overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed on its 50 day moving average. This has been an area of support for the last month and a half. The short term indicators are pointing down with room to go which implies that higher prices are in store for stocks in the near term. However that won't happen if the 50 day continues to hold. Looks like we're at an inflection point on the VIX. Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We had a gap higher at the open and spent the rest of the day moving sideways to lower as the Dow gained 75 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index continues sideways. The NASDAQ was the leader to the upside. Waiting on the Fed Wednesday as that should be the big mover this week. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are now approaching mid-range as the continuious overbought condition is beginning to fade. Not sure exactly what it means going forward as the market has been quite resilient. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates ticked up. The XAU lost 1 1/8, while GDX shed a little over 1/8. Volume remains good here. I still want to try the GDX April calls if we see a pullback in the gold shares. GDX remains short term overbought though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a touch lower today. The indicators here are mid-range so it could go either way here. Not sure what to expect next but we'll keep an eye on it. We've rolled into the April option cycle and premiums are high. Waiting on a signal for the SPY options. We'll probably let the Fed get out of the way and go from there. Asia up and Europe lower to begin the week. We'll keep watch on the overnight developments.

The selling continued as the Dow was off by 190 points on expiration heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving sideways. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Technical conditions have changed as the short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over. I'm not sure if this is the beginning of a much needed rest or just another fake out before higher prices. The short term indicators for the NASDAQ have moved lower than the overall market. We'll probably know by next week after the Fed meeting where we're heading. For now we'll simply remain patient on the sidelines with regards to the SPY. Gold fell $7 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates ticked up. The XAU had a fractional gain while GDX finished unchanged. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overbought. If we see a decline in GDX next week I'll most likely try the calls there again. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher early on but finished unchanged. The daily candlestick chart there appears to be heading lower which would be bullish for stocks. The short term technical indicators for the VIX are back to mid-range. Moving now to the April options cycle with an extra week in the time frame. Premiums are high. Hopefully after the Fed we'll have a better idea of where we're heading. I'll be going over all the charts as usual this weekend. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Option expiration gyrations today as the Dow fell 177 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is now back to a sideways movement. The inflation data was hotter than expected but we actually opened a bit higher before selling off. The day would of ended up worse but we got the last half hour buying spree again. The Dow led the way lower and that's not the worst case scenario. The TRAN did get whacked though. The S&P 500 is still short term overbought and now in a sideways configuration. We're on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. The April option cycle has an extra week in it so the premiums are high. Gold was off another dozen or so on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU dropped 1 2/3, while GDX shed over 1/3. Volume was average. GDX remains short term overbought and we'll need to see that condition change before attempting the April calls there. Markets rarely cooperate with our best laid plans. I'll try and remain patient with GDX here as we have a Fed meeting meeting next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but off from the best levels on the session. I'm not sure where it goes from here but the 50 day moving average seems to be the level of near term support. Expiration Friday on the docket. Would not be surprised if the SPY finished tomorrow around where it is today. At least that is what the open interest is perhaps telling us. We'll let tomorrow pass and take it from there. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower last night. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A quiet sideways session for the most part with a little volatility in the last half hour. The Dow managed a gain of 37 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving higher. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 finished in the red with the NASDAQ leading the way. We did get a signal yesterday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next couple of days. We'll see if that pans out tomorrow but that signal hasn't worked lately. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Inflation data tomorrow should provide a reason for market movement. I wanted to try the SPY March puts but there isn't a clear signal so I'm on the sidelines. We'll roll into the April option cycle there. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was slightly lower and interest rates were up a bit. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX was up almost 3/4 making up for yesterdays losses. Volume was above average. GDX is short term overbought and staying that way. It appears that GDX is poised to run up into Fridays expiration but we'll see. I still like the idea of the GDX April calls but do not want to chase it here. However if there isn't a pullback soon I may have to change my mind. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower today. Not sure what's next here as it closed on its 50 day moving average. An inflation surprise tomorrow will get things moving either way. If the numbers are in line most likely the market will move higher. But we'll let the market decide where it's going in the near term. Asia was generally lower and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

The inflation data was a bit hotter than expected but the market didn't care as the rally continues. The Dow gained 235 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues to trend higher. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus. The S&P 500 closed at a new all time high. It remains short term overbought as it has been for weeks and months. Not sure how long it can go on like this but obviously it's longer than we think. Probably will not attempt any SPY trades before the end of this option expiration week. Only possibility would be the SPY March puts ahead of Thursdays inflation reoport. But we see that idea would have been a loser ahead of todays CPI data. Gold took a breather as the futures were off over $25. The US dollar ended around unchanged after being higher early on. Interest rates were up. The XAU fell 1 7/8 and GDX lost over 1/2. They did finish up from the worst levels on the session. Volume remains above average here. The gold shares remain short term overbought and are due for a rest. I still like the GDX April calls as the next trade but will try and wait for some more pullback before trying this idea. Money has been pouring into this sector so we have to believe that the rise is the start of something real to the upside. I could be wrong. Resistance at 31.5 on GDX so we should at least make it up to that level on this move. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and the short term indicators have now rolled over. This implies more upside in the near term for stocks. We'll see. Perhaps we are just witnessing the positive expiration bias in play. Whatever the case you cannot argue with price. Asia was generally higher and Europe was up in last nights trade. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

A mixed bag to begin the week as the Dow rose 47 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is trending up. The Dow managed a gain today but both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 finished in the red. Awaiting tomorrow inflation data and we should move off of that. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but not at extremes. I did not purchase the SPY March puts today as we don't have a clear techincal signal to do so. Not sure what to expect from the data tomorrow but would not be surprised if it comes in worse than expected. Just a guess there. Gold finished up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and so where interest rates. The XAU gained 2 2/3, while GDX added another 1/2. Volume was pretty good once again. GDX remains short term overbought and staying there. Money left on the table as I sold the GDX March call position too soon on Friday. We'll wait for a pullback to try the GDX April calls. There is a two year down trend line at 31.5 that should provide resistance if GDX gets there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but down from the highest levels on the session. Getting to short term overbought on the indicators but not there yet. Don't know what to expect from the VIX tomorrow. Four days left in the March option cycle. Do we dare attempt another trade before the weekend? We'll have to see how the technicals line up. Asia was mixed as Japan got whacked and Europe generally lower to start the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

It was a one day reversal to the downside today as the market opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 62 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is now moving higher and out of the recent sideways channel. The jobs report came in better than expected and the market liked that. As the day wore on we had a bout of selling followed by another rally attempt before rolling over again into the close. The NASDAQ led the way down and that's a negative. The S&P 500 remains in short term overbought territory but the indicators appear to be rolling over again. However every time this has happened in the past two months buyers have reappeared. The longer term up trend line is still intact on the S&P. I still might try the SPY March puts ahead of Tuesdays inflation data but that's a decision to be figured out over the weekend. Gold was up about twenty bucks on the futures but off of the best levels on the day. The US dollar finished almost unchanged after being down early. Interest rates bounced both up and down during the session only to finish about where they started. The XAU had a fractional loss while GDX was unchanged. Both finished off of the highs for the session. Volume picked up and was good once again. I sold my GDX March calls but not sure if that was the right decision. Gold and the gold shares are due for a rest, the question is when. The gain was a little over 1000%. In plain english this trade returned better than ten times the amount traded in a week and a half. The entry was spot on but we'll have to see about the exit. However as always win or lose we move on from here. I'm considering the GDX April calls now if we see some sort of pullback in the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I don't want to get too excited over the last trade because it means nothing now and you've always got to be moving forward in the game. The VIX was up today but off of its highest levels. The short term indicators still have room to go in either direction. Not getting a good feel for what will happen with the VIX next. Only a week left in the March option cycle. We'll check the charts over the weekend and try to come up with a profitable idea for next week. Plenty of data out highlighted by the inflation reports on Tuesday and Thursday. Asia was up and Europe generally down to close out the week in the foreign markets. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

I thought today might be a wait and see session but the market isn't waiting for anything as the Dow gained 130 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive again. The summation index appears to be breaking out of the sideways channel to the upside. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. A new all time high for the S&P 500 as it remains short term overbought while hugging its upper Bollinger band. The trend is still up in an overbought environment. We'll see what kind of reaction there is to the employment numbers tomorrow. Gold continued its ascent adding $7 on the futures. The US dollar continued lower and interest rates were slightly down. The XAU rose 2 1/4, while GDX gained almost 1/2. Volume was a bit above average but less than it has been lately. Both gold and the gold shares had less volume today so perhaps this run higher is about to take a rest. My GDX March calls are still solidly in the black. I will be considering getting out of this trade before the weekend depending on the price action tomorrow. It has been a straight line up for the gold shares and that certainly won't last forever. We did not see the usual snap back to the broken trend line for GDX which let us know that the move would be stronger than normal and it has definitely has been that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was barely lower today which doesn't really fit todays market rally. The short term indicators on the VIX are now mid-range so it could go either way here. Asia generally lower and Europe higher overnight. All eyes on tomorrows jobs report as we close out the trading week.

Bouncing back as the Dow rose 75 points on good volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues sideways. The NASDAQ led the way but we certainly did not make up yesterdays losses. However the selling was met by buying once again and the longer term up trend line for the S&P 500 remains intact. Still short term overbought there but not as much as it has been recently. I would guess that tomorrow will be a wait and see session, with the employment data due out on Friday. Unless the Fed chairman says something different than todays testimony before Congress. I'm still thinking about the SPY March puts, perhaps next week. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates held steady. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX added 1/2. Volume remains above average on the gold shares but they did finish below the highs on the session. The gold shares are due for a rest as they have gone straight up for a little over a week. They are also trading above the upper Bollinger band. Not sure how much longer to hold onto the GDX March calls. They are still showing a nice profit. Again, the management of the trade is key. Still seven days to go in the March option cycle. Gold itself has broken out to new all time highs with no overhead resistance. The trading is never easy. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was barely higher today and that doesn't fit with an up market. Now I'm not sure where it's headed next. Europe and Asia finished higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

Sellers arrived today as we had a gap down at the open and kept going from there. A last half hour bounce kept things from being worse. The Dow fell 404 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index remains in a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a negative. Each time we've seen a drop like this over the past month or so it has never amounted to much of a decline. After todays price action the long term trend line for the S&P 500 is still intact. The short term indicators there have rolled over but will that actually mean something this time? Perhaps the negative RSI divergence will finally manifest itself as it has been the condition for the S&P although it does look like it was negated. Time will tell and we'll know by the end of the week. It's probably too late for the SPY March puts but we'll see. Gold continued higher as the futures rose $11. The US dollar finished flat again but interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on good volume. They both finished on the lows of the day and well off of their highs. The gold shares are due for a pause to digest the good gains over the past few trading sessions. Whether or not this is the top for this move remains to be seen but the gold shares are now short term overbought. The next technical expectation here would be a move back to the broken down trend line. GDX made it back to its 200 day moving average but was rebuffed. My GDX March calls are still showing a decent profit but today may have been the day to exit. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX jumped today and that was expected given the markets decline. The short term indicators have turned up with plenty of room to go. The VIX implies that lower stock prices are on the way. Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight. We've got the Fed chairman in front of Congress tomorrow so we'll see how that goes.

We trended sideways for much of the session but sellers showed up in the final hour as the Dow fell 97 points on good volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trying to move out of the sideways channel that is has been stuck in but todays price action probably won't help. Not sure what led to the late swoon but some profit taking or even outright selling is long overdue. The NASDAQ led the way lower but it wasn't a rout. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought on the technical indicators as it has been for weeks on end. I'd still like to try the SPY March puts at some point but the question is when. Gold continued its rally as the futures jumped thirty bucks. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates moved up. The XAU was up 4 1/3, while GDX gained almost 1 1/4. Volume was very heavy. Buyers have all of a sudden showed up for gold and I cannot pinpoint a reason why. The gold futures closed at a new all time high above $2100. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up with still some room to go. The short term down trend line for GDX was broken on good volume Friday and we continued up today. GDX closed above its 50 day moving average. Not sure how far and how fast this rally can go but we'll enjoy the ride for now. Needless to say our GDX March calls are showing a good profit for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today which fits with the downside day. Still short term oversold here. We've got the Fed chairman before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday followed by the employment report on Friday. So there will be plenty of excuses for market movement this week. Not sure what to expect but we'll keep our eyes on things as usual. Asia was up and Europe generally down to begin the trading week overseas. We'll keep watch on tonights developments.

The buying continues on the 1st of the month as the Dow gained 91 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trying to break out above its sideways trading channel. The NASDAQ led the way and closed at a new all time high along with the S&P 500. The S&P remains short term overbought but the negative divergence on the daily RSI has now been negated. It was a signal that didn't work but luckily I didn't try the SPY March puts yet. Not sure exactly where all the liquidity is coming from but we won't argue with price. Waiting on a decent signal for the next SPY trade and it still could be the March puts as we have two weeks to go in the March option cycle. The gold futures took off to the upside by $38 and closed at a new all time high. The US dollar was lower and interest rates continue to drop. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added almost a buck. Volume was heavy to the upside. GDX has broken the down trend line in effect since the beginning of the year on good volume. That is bullish. The short term indicators still have room to move higher and are not yet overbought. Not sure why gold has all of sudden taken off but we'll take it. My GDX March calls are now showing a good profit. But with two weeks to go in the March option cycle, the management of the trade will determine whether or not it is successful. The weekly candlestick chart for GDX appears to have put in a triple bottom but we'll have to see where it goes from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and closed below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators on the VIX are getting more overbought. Not at extremes but getting there. We'll have plenty to ponder over this weekend as we go over all the charts. Asia and Europe were higher to close the week as money is moving into stocks around the globe. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Inflation data came in where expected which led to some volatility today. We opened higher, gave it all back and then rallied back again into the close. The Dow finished with a gain of 47 points on end of the month heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to track sideways. It seems like the market still just can't figure out what it wants to do here. The NASDAQ led the way higher today and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought with the negative RSI divergence still in place. Perhaps we'll get a shot at the SPY March puts at some point but when that point is I don't know at the moment. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates dipped. The XAU rose 2 3/8, while GDX was up 5/8. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up. GDX finished well off of its highs for the session. The problem here is that every bounce we have seen lately for GDX hasn't sustained any buying. That could again be the case here as the down trend line at 27 remains in effect. We'll need to see some more buying if this GDX March call trade is to work out. It is showing a small profit after today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains perched at the 50 day moving average. Still short term oversold but not extremely so. I don't have a good feel for where the VIX is heading next. Some economic data due tomorrow but nothing as important as today. Plenty of Fed speak to close out the week. Europe and Asia finished mixed last night. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Still treading water here as the Dow dipped 23 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving sideways. Tomorrow should get things going one way or the other on the inflation data. If that doesn't get things moving I don't know what will. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way down. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought and the negative RSI divergence remains in place. I decided to stay on the sidelines with regards to the overall market and not purchase the SPY March puts today. Gold finished flat on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was average. My open order for the GDX March calls was filled today. Since I took this trade I stayed out of the SPY put idea. Not sure that was the correct decision though. I at least waited for the price that I was willing to pay for this GDX call idea. GDX is short term oversold but the indicators could still move lower as they are not at extremes. A little over two weeks remaining in the March option cycle but we will probably know tomorrow whether or not this trade will work. Mentally I'm feeling a bit anxious. Not sure the trade taken on today was worth the risk. Might have done it out of just wanting to get the next trade going. It has technical justification but I'm certainly not confident about it. The VIX was up today and has bounced off of its 50 day moving average. Still short term oversold here but not extremely so. Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Back and forth today as the Dow fell 96 points on about average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues sideways. The Dow was the laggard today with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 posting gains. Waiting on Thursdays inflation report seems to be the story. We will get a GDP revision tomorrow and some talking from Fed officials. The technical condition for the S&P remains the same. Short term overbought with the negative RSI divergence on the daily chart. The question is whether to buy the SPY March puts ahead of Thursdays data. I've made the case here technically but as time moves on I've got less conviction for the trade. Not sure why that is. However if we see some strength tomorrow I'll have to figure out if it's worth the risk or not. The same goes for the GDX March call trade. If the market drops most likely the gold shares will follow. My open order for the GDX calls remains out there. Today the gold futures finished flat along with the US dollar and interest rates. Are you seeing a trend here? Markets are just hanging around waiting for a catalyst one way or the other. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. GDX remains in a negative mode with the down trend line that began at the beginning of the year remaining in force at the 27 level. So tonight I'll have to ask myself. Do I want to try this trade or not? Mentally I'm in a mood of indecision or so it seems. Perhaps I should head to the sidelines but there's no making any money over there. No losing any either. The VIX was lower today and closed on its 50 day moving average. Short term oversold here but not extremely. I'm not sure what's next for the VIX. Decisions will have to be made tomorrow ahead of Thursdays data. Europe and Asia were up last night. We'll watch tonights headlines and get ready for Wednesday.

Another mundane Monday as the Dow lost 62 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index continues sideways. The S&P 500 was lower and didn't hold up here until Tuesday as I had hoped in order to try the SPY March puts. We'll see how things go in the next couple of days but this trade may not happen for me since the index is already starting to drop. The technical picture hasn't changed for the S&P with the negative RSI divergence on the daily chart. Inflation data out on Thursday should be the main mover of the week unless we get some kind of surprise before then. The NASDAQ had the least loss on the day. Gold dropped $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was average. The gold shares did come up from the lows on the session. My open order for the GDX March calls is still out there. Another day like today will probably get it filled. This trade seems to be getting riskier as time goes on as the signal is not as clear as it was. I may adjust it lower overnight. If the overall market starts to drop as I think it will, the gold shares will probably go with it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished flat on the day. Not a clear signal here now one way or the other. When in doubt stay out is an old market saying but perhaps it's appropriate for now. Europe was mixed and Asia generally lower with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Just hanging around today to digest yesterdays huge gains as the Dow rose 62 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving sideways. The Dow led the way today and the NASDAQ posted a small loss. New all time highs for the Dow and the S&P 500 again. The S&P remains short term overbought with the negative RSI divergence still in place on the daily chart. If we can remain positive into Tuesday I'll be trying the SPY March puts. Inflation data due out on Thursday. Gold was up $15 on the futures. The US dollar ended flat again and interest rates were lower. The XAU gained 1 7/8, while GDX was up 1/2. Volume was good to the upside. The short term indicators for GDX have turned up and the daily candlestick chart looks positive. My open order for the GDX March calls wasn't filled and it looks like I've maybe missed this trade. I'll leave the order out there and see what happens in the beginning of next week. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower and the short term indicators still have room to move down. The VIX still implies higher stock prices in the near term. We'll see. I'll take the weekend to go over the charts for some type of game plan next week. For now I'm still a believer in the negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart. Throw in a short term overbought signal on Tuesday and I'll be trying the puts. But we have to get there first. Europe finished higher and Asia was mixed to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The stock market exploded to the upside today as the Dow climbed 456 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index remains in a sideways pattern. NVDA came out with a better than expected earnings report and guidance after the bell. The result was buying upon buying today along with short covering. The NASDAQ led the way up roughly 3% on the day. The S&P 500 hit a new all time high along with the Dow. The NASDAQ is just about there. To me it is getting a bit out of control but that doesn't mean that we won't move higher. I'm still looking at the negative RSI divergence on the S&P daily chart but upside follow through tomorrow may take care of that. However when one stock can set off a rally like this it is a cause for concern. The breadth today was nothing to write home about either. You cannot argue with price though. Gold finished flat on the session. The US dollar ended flat as well and interest rates ticked up. The gold shares did not go along with the overall market today as the XAU shed 2 1/4 and GDX lost 2/3. Volume was good to the downside. Newmont set a new 52 week low as there is no love for gold stocks at the moment. My open order for the GDX March calls wasn't filled and I adjusted it lower. I'm not sure if this is still the right idea for now. I'm considering going out to the April option cycle but we'll see what happens tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that fits the rally. The short term indicators have rolled over with room to go. This implies yet even higher stock prices going forward. Asia and Europe were higher as it appears there's a worldwide run into equities. Not sure where all the money is coming from but the bulls are clearly in charge. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Looking for direction as the Dow gained 48 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The summation index is moving sideways. We bounced around trending lower for much of the session before a last half hour rally sent indices into positive terrritory with the exception of the NASDAQ. The Fed beige book was a non event. Waiting on NVDA earnings after the bell to set the tone for tomorrow. The S&P 500 is now mid-range its Bollinger band channel with the short term indicators drifting lower. There is no clear trading signal one way or the other here so we'll be on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume. I did place an order for the GDX March calls but it will take some selling there to get filled. I'm leaving it open overnight. Newmont earnings on tap for tomorrow. The gold shares seem to be holding in here so this trade may have been missed as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a touch lower today. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it has put in a small top and that the VIX will be heading lower near term. That would be a plus for higher stock prices. I still like the idea of the SPY March puts at some point during the monthly option cycle but need to see a decent signal first. We'll have to stay patient for now. Europe and Asia were mixed again. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Sellers took over after the long weekend as the Dow fell 64 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index remains in a sideways channel. The overall market was much weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. We did recover from the lows of the session though. The S&P 500 is still in overbought territory but not at extremes. The short term indicators have rolled over. The up trend line from last November is in jeopardy. I still like the idea of the SPY March puts but will not chase things here. If the S&P somehow moves up from here and the indicators stay below their previous highs the puts are worth a shot. But that's asking a lot and I would not be surprised if we just head down from here. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates nudged down. The XAU finished basically unchanged, while GDX added 1/8. Volume was light. I do like the GDX March calls on a pullback this week if we see one. However with gold up and the gold shares not following it isn't the most positive environment at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today and closed above its 200 day moving average and upper Bollinger band. Not sure what to expect here next but the short term indicators have room to go higher. It is a short trading week without a lot of economic data on tap. The Fed beige book is out tomorrow with NVDA earnings due after the bell. I suppose it is best to sit tight for now. Europe and Asia finished mixed in last nigths trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

The inflation data came in more than expected again and after an intitial drop in the first half hour the market came back to positive territory until there were two hours to go. Sellers then took over and the Dow fell 145 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index remains trending up but within a sideways range. The NASDAQ led the way lower. I thought that perhaps we would see some kind of blow off top for stocks here but that isn't the case. If it was we'd already be going straight up. Todays price action puts the market in a tenuous position in my view. The negative RSI divergence on the daily chart for the S&P 500 is still intact. However the long term up trend line is still working as support. But to me the rate of ascent is too steep and I'm looking for a pull back to the 4800 level. I could be wrong and often am. I'm considering the SPY March puts. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates rose. Both the XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on about average volume. The weekly candlestick chart for GDX looks bullish as it has bounced off of its lower Bollinger band this week. It is also oversold on a medium term basis. There is a down trend line still in effect there though and a negative week next week would negate this weeks potential positive candlestick. The trading is never easy. If the market drops next week as I believe that it will the gold shares will probably go with it. Newmont earnings are due on the 22nd as well. I am looking at the March GDX calls. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX was up a bit today. Not seeing any clear signal one way or the other on the daily indicators here. There will be plenty to ponder over the long weekend coming up. Rolling into a new option cycle as well. I'll be going over the charts as usual to try and come up with some kind of game plan for the comming trading week. I'll try and not dwell on the recent losing GDX trade and missing out on the SPY puts this week. Europe and Asia finished higher to close out the trading week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Continuing higher as the Dow was up 348 points on average volume. The advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to trending higher but remains in a sideways panel. The Dow was the leader today and that isn't the most bullish scenario. Retail sales came in lighter than expected. The S&P 500 was up and remains short term overbought but not extremely so. My guess here is that the S&P either morphs into a blow off top or we get another negative RSI divergence on the daily chart and we roll over. The up trend line from last November remains intact so the path of least resistance is higher. The big sell off on Tuesday has only been met with more buying. Not sure where the liquidity is coming from but we won't fight price. Remaining on the sidelines for now as we'll let expiration Friday pass. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates finished flat. The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was good again to the upside. The bounce signal we were looking for from one of our indicators doesn't look like it will show up as the gold shares are already starting to move up. The short term indicators for GDX have started to move higher. Perhaps if GDX heads back down to the 26 level we'll try the March calls there. There is a down trend line on the GDX daily chart that comes in at around 27.75. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today with some of the short term indicators now at mid-range. Not sure what to expect next here. We have seen the stock market come back in the past couple of days. Not sure if it is the next move to a new all time high or just something option expiration related. We'll know in the next few days. Asia and Europe were both up overnight. Inflation data out on expiration Friday so we'll close out the trading week on that.

Higher today as we did not see any downside follow through to yesterdays debacle. The Dow gained 151 points on light volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is tracking sideways. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus for the bulls. After todays price action we have to consider that yesterday was simply a one day wonder but we'll see how the rest of the week plays out. The long term up trend line in the S&P 500 from last November does remain intact. The short term indicators there have now turned back up as they have for most of the duration of the rally. The negative RSI divergence on the daily chart of the S&P may have played itself out in one day. We'll know more as the rest of the week goes on. Plenty of economic data out tomorrow with retail sales being the main event. On the sidelines for now with regards to the SPY trading. Gold fell $3 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on above average volume. We are waiting to see if one of our indicators gives a buy signal for GDX. If it does we'll try a bounce trade there. If not we'll look elsewhere. GDX remains short term oversold on the daily indicators and has been for quite some time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term technical indicators there have turned lower or are in the process of doing so. The VIX is implying that the selling is over but again we'll have to see how the rest of the week shapes up. A long weekend ahead in the US as well. More inflation data out on Friday along with option expiration. So it should be a busy final two days of this week. Asia was mixed and Europe up in last nights trade. We'll see how the markets react to the data tomorrow.

Inflation data came in higher than expected and the markets got clobbered as the Dow fell 524 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 12 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to trending lower but it is in a sideways channel. The NASDAQ led the way down. A last half hour rally brought the market back or it would have been worse. I did place another order overnight for the SPY February puts but it wasn't filled. I was thinking yesterday that perhaps this trade was missed and it was. The negative RSI divergence on the daily chart for the S&P 500 finally came to fruition. The S&P did manage to make it back to finish on the up trend line that began last November at the 4950 level. I don't think this level will hold though but we'll see. The short term indicators for the S&P have rolled over with room to go. The next area of support comes in at around 4800 or so. If we can somehow hang around here for a while, I'll try the SPY March puts. But markets go where thay want. Gold dropped $27 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 6 7/8, while GDX fell 1 3/8. Volume was heavy in a rush to the exits. Yesterday I thought that the gold shares were about to rally and they simply continue to fall. There is an indicator that we look at on a longer term basis that is pretty reliable to spot a point when the gold shares will at least bounce. It hasn't gotten all the way there yet but if and when it does I'll be trying the GDX March calls for a short term trade. I also thought yesterday that all the bad news was out there for Barrick Gold but it sold off on its earnings report today. Mentally I'm feeling OK despite missing the SPY put trade. At least my idea there was correct unlike the recent GDX loss that was a disastor from the start. One thing for sure in the game is that you've always got to keep moving forward despite the results. The VIX had a huge spike higher and closed above its 200 day moving average. It would have been even higher had the market not made a late comeback out of nowhere. The short term indicators have moved up but are not completely overbought yet. Not sure what to expect here next but you can certainly make a case for higher VIX readings and lower stock prices. Three days left in the February option cycle ahead of a holiday weekend. I doubt that I'll be taking on any short term trades from here but who knows? What was open in Asia was generally higher while Europe was lower. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

A mixed bag today as the Dow rose 125 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is back to moving up. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. It was a one day reversal to the downside for the S&P 500. I did place an order for the SPY Feruary puts overnight but it wasn't filled. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but today may have been the chance to try the puts. If we are higher tomorrow I may try this idea again but it could be too late. Inflation data out in the morning and that should be a market mover. I'm looking at the hourly chart on the S&P and if we get a high above todays high with a lower RSI reading I'll give the puts a try. But this would be strickly short term in nature as it's option expiration week. Gold was off $4 on the futures. The US dollar finished flat along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was below average. Gold shares up with gold down is a plus for the bulls as we haven't seen that for a while. Perhaps it is the beginning of a rally in GDX that I was looking for as it remains short term oversold. Barrick Gold reports earnings tomorrow and we've seen about all of the bad news from that stock lately. Mentally I'm feeling a bit concerned that I might have missed the SPY put trade. The VIX was up today. It rose a point even though we hardly had a market drop overall. The short term indicators have turned up. It could represent more near term weakness for stocks but we'll have to wait and see. Europe finished higher and most of Asia was closed for holiday. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

The climb higher continued for the overall market but the Dow fell 54 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now tracking sideways. The NASDAQ led the way by far today and that's another plus for the bulls. We didn't see a big move in the overall market so the recent signal for that in the McClellan oscillator failed. The S&P 500 did get its close above the 5000 level though. Still short term overbought on the S&P with a potential negative divergence for the RSI on the daily chart. If we stay positive into Tuesday I'll try the SPY February puts. At least that's the idea before the weekend. My market prognosis hasn't been good lately as it appears that simply buying some SPY calls and holding them was the proper play. There's also the posibility that we see some kind of blow off top next week into the option expiration. Gold was off $8 on the futures to finish the week. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU lost another 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/3. Volume moved up to be about average.. I ended up selling my GDX February calls for a 95% loss. Even another breakout of violence in the Middle East probably wouldn't have saved this trade. A loser from the start and poorly managed once again. My market sense is off right now. Not a lot of money involved but it is the negative expending of the mental capital that holds you back. Your ideas need to fit the market narrative, not the other way around. I'll put this trade behind me and start fresh on Monday. Mentally I'm feeling OK all things considered. Losing trades are part of the game but they should not eat up 95% of the trade. Moving on is part of the deal too when it comes to this game. The VIX was up today which doesn't fit with an overall higher market. Not sure what that implies. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Perhaps I'll consider moving into the GDX March calls as GDX is oversold and staying there. But there's time to consider things in the next couple of days this weekend. Much of Asia was closed and Europe ended the week slightly lower. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

More of the same today as we seem to be waiting for a close above the 5000 level on the S&P 500. The Dow added 49 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is now trying to move sideways. The NASDAQ was the leader today but all the gains were small. We did get a signal last night on the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions. We'll see if that pans out tomorrow. There doesn't seem to be any sellers around for now. Still considering the SPY February puts some time before expiration Friday on the 16th. Gold was lower by a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar finished flat and interest rates ticked higher. The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX was off over 1/8. Volume remains very light here. GDX remains short term oversold but not at extremes. My GDX February calls are now 90% losers. Looks like no cutting that loss now. I'll hold on to them over the weekend in case the Middle East heats up but that's about it. No saving this bad trade though. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was slightly lower and remains short term oversold. We've got the lunar new year coming up in Asia so some of those markets will be closed going forward from here for around a week. Mainly affects China. Europe and Asia finished mixed overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

The market seems like it just wants to keep going up as the Dow gained 156 points on strong volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led things higher today. The S&P 500 remains in the same short term overbought technical condition. It is on the cusp of closing at or above the 5000 level for the first time. Markets can stay overbought longer than you can stay solvent is one familiar saying for times like these. The breadth here though is lacking for a market moving higher. I'm not giving up on the SPY February put idea but will wait for a valid signal. The NASDAQ is on its way but still hasn't made it to a new all time high. Gold finished flat on the session after being a bit higher early on. The US dollar was lower and interest rates remained steady. The XAU slipped 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/4. Volume was very light again as there is no interest in this sector right now. My GDX February calls continue to lose ground and are on the way to being an eighty to ninety percent loss unless some buying comes out of the woodwork. Still hanging around the 27.5 support so there is some hope of cutting the loss to something more manageable. But this trade was a loser from the beginning and should have been dumped right away. One of the drawbacks now is being stuck in this negative position while other opportunities are out there. But I'll eventually move on like I always do. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower and is now below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators continue to slide and they aren't extremely oversold yet. The VIX still implies higher stock prices to come. It is one reason to hold off on the SPY puts for now. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.