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Thursday, March 07, 2024

I thought today might be a wait and see session but the market isn't waiting for anything as the Dow gained 130 points on average volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive again. The summation index appears to be breaking out of the sideways channel to the upside. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. A new all time high for the S&P 500 as it remains short term overbought while hugging its upper Bollinger band. The trend is still up in an overbought environment. We'll see what kind of reaction there is to the employment numbers tomorrow. Gold continued its ascent adding $7 on the futures. The US dollar continued lower and interest rates were slightly down. The XAU rose 2 1/4, while GDX gained almost 1/2. Volume was a bit above average but less than it has been lately. Both gold and the gold shares had less volume today so perhaps this run higher is about to take a rest. My GDX March calls are still solidly in the black. I will be considering getting out of this trade before the weekend depending on the price action tomorrow. It has been a straight line up for the gold shares and that certainly won't last forever. We did not see the usual snap back to the broken trend line for GDX which let us know that the move would be stronger than normal and it has definitely has been that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was barely lower today which doesn't really fit todays market rally. The short term indicators on the VIX are now mid-range so it could go either way here. Asia generally lower and Europe higher overnight. All eyes on tomorrows jobs report as we close out the trading week.

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