Wednesday, June 30, 2010
A weak attempt at a bounce and then the Dow lost 96 points to close out the month of June. Volume was average and the advance/declines were negative. Summation index heading lower, oversold and staying there. This is a dangerous market right now. We are possibly going to go through the zero line on the summation index. We haven't even had a short covering rally. I think that you can by puts on a bounce when we get one. But what do I know? Gold was up $3 today and the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light to average volume. The gold shares are showing good relative strength. Almost at a buy signal for the Gold/XAU ratio. I placed an order for some July ABX calls in case we have a big drop in the markets in the next couple of days. However getting long anything is very risky in this market at the moment. So we'll see what happens. The dollar was a bit lower today as the flight to quality trade took a day off. Mentally I'm feeling somewhat tired, did not feel well last night. I closed out the first half of the year on a down note and that was the story generally for 2010 so far. Plenty of time left in the year to turn things around. All eyes are waiting for the employment report on Friday. Perhaps we'll get a short covering rally in the next couple of days. If we don't, it could get very ugly and fast.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Oversold and staying there as the Dow lost 268 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. We never got the bounce that was overdue and I dumped the OEX calls for about an 80% loss. The summation index is now heading lower and the market could easily fall apart here. The bellwethers have already broken down and the S&P 500 should take out 1040 and head lower. That doesn't mean that we won't bounce tomorrow because we are so oversold. It does mean that we are headed lower and caution is advised. I thought we would move sideways into the July expiration but I was wrong again. 9800 is the key level for the Dow. Once we break that, we are heading much lower. GE lost 1/2 on heavy volume. No trades there. Gold held up rather well and gained $3. The XAU followed the overall market and was down over 5. ABX lost a buck or so, GG down 1 1/2, with NEM off 1/3. Volume was average. I guess I'm going to look at the gold shares here again. The dollar was stronger today and it could be that the safe haven plays come back in vogue for the July expiration cycle. The Gold/XAU ratio is almost back to a buy signal. I'll look things over tonight. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. So I closed out another loss for the 1st half of the year, which doesn't help my confidence going forward. But it will be forgotten because the markets don't care. I think that we are in a precarious position and I would not be surprised by anything at this point. When the markets don't act as they should technically, we're in for something. The best course of action here could just be to step aside. That's a possibility. End of the month tomorrow and the employment report on Friday ahead of a long holiday weekend. It will be interesting to say the least.
Monday, June 28, 2010
We still can't generate a rally as the Dow lost 5 points today. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light. My OEX calls are in the red and staying there. I really expect a big upside day tomorrow. If we don't get one, I really will be confused. But that is nothing new. The market is oversold both short and medium term. It should have showed some type of upside by now. So we'll see. I don't think that the OEX calls will be coming back into the black. GE barely moved on light volume. Nothing doing there. Gold took a hit, off $17. The XAU dropped 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on what looks like average volume. The dollar was stronger today. No gold share trades for now. Overbought and staying there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. 2 days left for the month of June. The market seems extremely weak here and the weekly candlestick charts are bearish. If we get a pop to the upside I will dump the OEX calls and perhaps try the OEX puts again before Fridays employment report. Or not. We should see some decent upside in the indices tomorrow. Stay tuned.
Friday, June 25, 2010
The Dow lost 9 points today as we continue to remain oversold. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive and the volume was good. Hard to figure what is going on here because we should have had a decent upside day by now. My OEX calls are solidly in the red and it looks like this will be a cut the loss trade. The bellwethers on GE, INTC and MSFT all continued lower today on good volume. The OEX will not get any upside traction with action like that. Gold was higher today by $10 and the XAU rose 6 1/2 points. ABX was up 1 3/4, GG up 1 1/4 and NEM up 2 3/4. Volume was average. Money continues to flow into the gold shares. Perhaps I should have been looking here. Overbought now so getting the July calls is risky. But you cannot ignore that there are buyers for gold, even at record levels. I will have to ponder this over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. So we're oversold and not getting a bounce. What does that mean going forward? That is the question. I do feel that we will get some real upside in the next couple of days. Technically that has to happen. If it doesn't we could be in for some real trouble. We might be in trouble anyway, down the road. End of the month coming up in the middle of next week. The employment report comes out on Friday before a long weekend. So there will be plenty to ponder over the next couple of days. It's time for a break.
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Oversold and staying there as the Dow lost 145 points today. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. The OEX calls I have are in the red. Todays developments have me questioning whether or not this trade will work. The summation index will be turning back down after todays action. Perhaps just sticking with the puts is the proper course of action. I expect some type of bounce here but now I suspect it will not be a sustained move higher. So we'll see. GE lost more ground today on increased volume. No time for buying calls there now. They are certainly cheap but maybe headed to zero. Gold was up over $10 today but the XAU fell 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all off fractionally after being higher early. Volume was light. The dollar didn't do much today. No solid idea of what to do here with respect to the gold shares except stay on the sidelines. Mentally I'm feeling good, slept well. So I'm in a trade that doesn't look good now but there is plenty of time and we are oversold. I originally wanted to hold it for 4 days and I'm going to stick with that. However the market isn't acting well here and that must be taken into consideration going forward. Volatility has picked up which will help keep the option premiums juiced. We'll see how we close out the week.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
A day of indecision as the Dow gained 5 points on light to average volume. Advance/declines were about even. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The Fed announcement came and went with no surprises. We were up over 50 and down over 50. I sold the OEX puts for about a 50% profit. We are now back to short term oversold. I bought some July OEX calls as I expect some upside for the next 4 days. So it's out of one trade and into another this time around. The calls usually take longer to develop a profit unless we see a dramatic move to the upside. I don't expect that. GE was down again on heavier volume and that is worrisome. The July GE calls are cheap now but I decided to go with the OEX. That could change tomorrow. Gold was down $6 but the XAU was up 1/2. The gold issues were mixed, with ABX flat, GG up 3/4 and NEM off 3/8. Volume was light. The gold shares did mount somewhat of a comeback from earlier in the day. The dollar was weaker today. I don't have any gold trades in mind at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling tired, haven't slept enough the past couple of days. That will change tonight. Feeling good about the trade closed out today, finally did something right for a change. But that trade is over and now my attention will be on the OEX July calls. The fact that the market sold off today and did not close on it's low could be a positive going forward. The transports held up after falling early as well. So we'll see what happens tomorrow.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
To the downside as the Dow lost 149 points today. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. My OEX puts are in the black but we are now short term oversold. I did not sell them today because the down trend was strong. Also the transports were really weak and can be a harbinger of things to come. But I should dump them tomorrow if my brain is working. We have the Fed announcement on interest rates tomorrow. I don't expect anything new there and neither does anyone else. GE lost 30 cents today on light volume. Not exactly sure I want to try the calls there now. The daily chart doesn't look bullish. Gold was flat today but the XAU followed the overall market lower, down 1 7/8. ABX and NEM were flat, while GG lost 3/8. Volume was light. The dollar didn't do much today. Mentally I'm a little tired, did not sleep enough. So we've seen some weakness and the OEX puts are showing a profit. Monday morning would have been the correct time to purchase them but that is hindsight. However it does remind you that overnight risk cannot be taken lightly. In that case it was over the weekend risk. However I have to go from here. The puts should be sold tomorrow and then we'll see where we go from there.
Monday, June 21, 2010
A one day reversal to the downside as the Dow was up around 140 points early but ended the day with a loss of 8 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was light to average. I still have the OEX puts that I bought on Friday. If we would have opened lower I would have dumped them but that was not the case. I should get rid of them tomorrow on any weakness. I don't think that this is the beginning of a sustained down move but what do I know? The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The OEX puts are about break even. Today would have been the ideal purchase date. GE was up fractionally on light volume. I still may try the July calls there if the price drops to my level. We'll see about that. Gold fell $17 and even more in the aftermarket. The XAU dropped 4 points. ABX and GG were down about 1 1/2, while NEM lost 1 3/4. Volume was average. Is this time to try the gold shares? Not after todays action. Perhaps if we make it back to the rising daily trend line on the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility returned today but I have to wonder, is it just a one day affair? Could be, because we will move to short term oversold tomorrow with a simply flat market. However the action today was bearish. But this also could have just been a reaction to the expiration on Friday. So as usual there are lots of questions without a lot of solid answers. I should sell the OEX puts tomorrow unless we completely collapse and I doubt that is in the cards.
Friday, June 18, 2010
We ended the week on a whimper as the Dow gained 16 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. Overbought now and I got some OEX July puts today for what I believe to be a 2 day trade. In on Friday and out on Monday if all goes according to plan. The puts are right where I bought them. I expect weakness Monday. So we'll see what happens. I canceled the GE call trade because I did not want to hold it over the weekend. Might try it again next week. GE was flat today on light volume. Gold broke out to new highs today, up $10. The XAU rose 3 1/3. ABX and NEM both gained 1 1/2 on good volume. GG was up a buck on light volume. NEM has been the leader and is breaking out to the upside. I need to find a way to get long the gold shares. I may have to wait for a pullback to the breakout line though. It is dangerous to chase moves. The gold shares had a great move this week considering it was expiration week. A lot of money was made. Perhaps that will happen again in the future. I'd like to be on board when it does. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. So I've got the OEX puts for July and I expect to sell them on Monday for a profit. Volatility has slowed down so far in June and that could be the case going forward for the summer. It happens and is known as the summer doldrums. We'll see. It's Friday afternoon and time for some rest. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. The summation index continues higher, so the trend is up. That is why this OEX put trade has got to be short term.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
We were lower for most of the day but a late last half hour rally carried the Dow to a gain of 24 points on average volume. Advance/declines were slightly negative. I continued to have an order in for some OEX puts but it looks like it won't be filled. There's only one day left for the June options as it is. If I could get the price I wanted, I would do it. But it is not going to happen. We should be lower tomorrow or Monday. Short term overbought here. GE was up a few cents and I'm leaving in the July call order there. Volume was light. I'll need to have a pullback there for that trade to be filled. Gold is the place to be this week as it gained almost $20 on the day. The XAU rose 3 2/3. ABX gained 1 2/3, GG about a buck and NEM 1 1/3. Volume was average but a bit heavier in NEM. The dollar was lower today. NEM is leading the way higher here and looks to break out above $60. ABX did meet it's rising uptrend line from February earlier this week. That was the time to try the calls. I was instead focused on the OEX. Perhaps gold is ready to break out to new highs here. I'll have to consider this scenario going forward. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated. Timing a day off, watching the wrong index, a losing trade during the week. There are many opportunities in the markets but doing the right thing at the right time eludes me once again. The money to be made is out there. Doing what is necessary to be successful isn't impossible. It hasn't been a good first half of the year trading for me. I'll have to improve over the next 6 months.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
It was an up and down day as the Dow gained 4 points on average volume. Advance/declines were negative. 2 days left in the June option cycle and I'm leaving in an open order for some OEX puts. It's a risky trade with 2 days left but I do think that there will be some decent downside before Fridays expiration. If we get some upside early tomorrow there is a chance the order will be filled. Of course I could be wrong and this will just be another losing trade. We'll see. GE was up a few cents on average volume. I'm still leaving in the open order there for the July calls. Gold lost a few bucks today but the XAU was up 1 3/4. NEM led the way with a 2 dollar gain on good volume. ABX and GG were up fractionally on light volume. The dollar didn't do much today. The gold shares are looking overbought to me here but that doesn't mean that they can't stay that way for a while. I'm not planning any trades here in the near term but that could change. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. Yesterdays losing trade is in the rear view mirror and I'll see if this next OEX trade will work. With 2 days left I do wonder if it is even worth the risk? That is something that I will ponder tonight. Perhaps I'll simply cancel the order tomorrow morning and look for greener pastures elsewhere. The trend is now up and July calls look to be the best play going forward post expiration.
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
The Dow exploded to the upside today as it gained 214 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving higher. I tried the OEX puts halfway through the day. Yes, it was a loser and I dumped them in the final hour. It was a 40% loss but not a lot of money involved, thankfully. The risk is high in the last week of the options as I have said. I was simply wrong on the timing and got out. I still believe that there will be a decent downside day this week. With that thought in mind I am leaving in an overnight order for some OEX puts again. We are short term overbought. GE was up about 40 cents on light volume. I'm leaving in the open order for the GE July calls. Gold was higher by $10 and the XAU gained 4 1/3. ABX and GG were up almost a buck, while NEM rose 1 1/3. Volume was light. The dollar was weaker today as the flight to safety there is taking a break. The daily uptrend line for ABX has held once again. That looks like the trade that should have been done. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not feel well this morning. So I tried the OEX puts today when I shouldn't have and I'm going to try them again. The summation index is heading higher so the path of least resistance is actually higher according to this indicator. Maybe I'm just wrong in my assessment of Junes expiration week. Perhaps just waiting on the GE trade to be filled is the better course of action. I'll consider these things tonight and take it from there.
Monday, June 14, 2010
We opened higher and closed lower, which usually isn't a bullish sign. The Dow lost 20 points on light volume. The advance/declines were solidly positive though. Today looks like it was the day to try the OEX puts. I did not get any. We broke through the daily downtrend line on some indices but the volume was light. I still might try the OEX puts if things line up to do it later this week. However with only 4 days in the June option cycle the risk will be very high. I still have an open order in for the GE July calls. GE was down a bit today on light volume. My thinking here is that we will build a small base and that process is happening now. From there we will rally and then I can dump the calls at a profit. Could be wishful thinking as well. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU fell 2 2/3. ABX, GG and NEM all fell over a buck on light volume. ABX is at it's rising trend line and it's 50-day moving average. It's possible that the line will hold and the June calls can be bought here for a quick trade. It's also possible that the rising trend line will be broken and the rally from February is over. But we are at the moment of truth. Still a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. So I'll have to think about that one tonight as well. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. It's expiration week and I do have a couple of ideas. Might be too late for the OEX puts though. The safer trade to do would be to go out to July with the GE call trade. So we'll see. Time will be compressed with just 4 days to go here in the June cycle. Timing will be even more important and it will have to be close to exact. A tough order in the markets. So I'll mull things over and decide which path, if any, to choose.
Friday, June 11, 2010
We traded lower for most of the day and then rallied in the final hour for a gain of 38 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The volume was light though. We are starting to break through the daily downtrend line on the S&P 500 but the volume will need to pick up. If we continue with a light volume rally here then I will be looking to get some OEX puts next week. GE had a fractional loss on light volume and I'm leaving in the open order for the July calls. I'm going to reevaluate this trade over the weekend. Perhaps there just isn't enough volatility or price movement in GE to warrant the risk of the trade. We'll see. Gold rose $8 today, while the XAU was up 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM had fractional moves one way or the other on very light volume. Here is a case where the interest could wane for the gold shares unless there is some global instability. The dollar was up a bit today but it too is overbought and due for a rest or a pullback. Normally that would be supportive for gold, however these haven't been normal times. If the flight to safety trade loses popularity, then gold will fall. Hasn't happened yet. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. It really looks like the market wants to hold up here and that would tie in with the summation index turning around. I'm not saying that there's going to be some rip roaring rally but at least the decline in the indices should stop for a while. I'm still calling for sideways to higher for at least a month or so. But as always that's a guess and subject to revision going forward. I'm going to have to go over the charts this weekend and have a plan of attack ready for next week. It will be option expiration week so anything can and will happen. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
I think we can say that the decline in the stock indices is over for now as the Dow gained 273 points today. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The summation index should start moving higher here. That's not to say that there won't be some down days going forward, there will. But I think the trend is going to be sideways to higher here for the next month or so. I look for another drop in the autumn and that should be a good longer term buying opportunity. I'm leaving in the open order for the GE July calls in case we get a drop in the coming days. GE was up 1/3 today on light to average volume. Gold fell $5 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU was up 2 1/2, following the overall market. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on light volume. The dollar fell pretty good today but it did not help the price of the precious metal. Perhaps the flight to safety trade is losing steam here with the stability in the stock indices. I canceled the June ABX call trade. I think that I will have to wait on the gold shares. Mentally I'm doing OK. We are right at the daily downtrend line in the stock indices. It looks like we will break through to the upside. If we continue higher I may attempt the OEX puts before expiration. We will have to get short term overbought and we are not there yet. I also think there is a chance that the volatility will slow down as we begin the summer. That will make the trading a lot tougher. But that's a guess. Let's see how we close the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, June 09, 2010
Opened higher and closed lower as the Dow lost 40 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about even. Hard to say what will happen next as we move sideways attempting to hold around the important 1060 level on the S&P 500. I still have an open order for some GE July calls. My thinking is that we will hold up here but that could all change tomorrow. Oversold on the daily charts of the indices. However the summation index continues lower and we haven't seen a selling washout that usually accompanies a bottom. Gold lost $15 on the futures but came back in the aftermarket. The XAU fell over 2 points. ABX and GG fell about 5/8. NEM dropped 3/4. Volume was light to average. I placed an open order for some ABX June calls. ABX would have to have a pretty good drop for this order to be filled. The daily chart isn't looking exactly bullish but if we get to the 50 day moving average line on a pullback, then I'm willing to take the risk. The dollar fell a bit today. There is still a lot of uncertainty out there. That's the feeling that I get. Mentally I'm a bit tired, could have slept better. Only a couple of days left in the week and who will be buying stocks in this atmosphere? So I have a couple of open orders out and we'll see what happens.
Tuesday, June 08, 2010
We bounced around a bit and closed higher on the day as the Dow gained 123 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume picked up from yesterday. Could the decline be over? Perhaps. We have not exactly fallen apart here and technically we have every reason to. So maybe the sideways to upside action that I expect is going to begin now. That's a guess and it could all change tomorrow. However I did put in an order for some July GE calls. Yes, GE doesn't move around as much as the overall market as I've said before. But I'm going to give it a shot and see what happens. We're oversold on GE and today could have been the bottom with a hammer candlestick on the daily chart. We'll see. Gold was up a bit on the futures but fell in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 2 1/3. ABX and GG were only up fractionally after being much higher earlier. NEM gained 1 1/4. It was also higher early. Volume was heavy. It looked like almost a one day reversal to the downside for ABX. I canceled my open order for the June ABX calls. However there is still a buy signal on the Gold/XAU ratio. But the daily ABX candlestick chart doesn't look so good at the moment. Perhaps I'll try the calls again if we get to the 50 day moving average line. But again, it could all change tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. So these are interesting times no doubt. We should see some positive action in the overseas markets tonight and that should carry through to a positive open tomorrow in the US. In theory at least. 8 days left for the June options. Risky but I may still attempt something there.
Monday, June 07, 2010
The market tried to hold on all day but couldn't as the Dow lost 115 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The S&P 500 closed below the 1060 level. We have crossed the zero line in the summation index. There are no compelling reasons to buy stocks here. In my mind it is a question of just how low are we going to go here. It will be interesting to say the least. We could really start to fall apart. Gold saw safe haven buying as it rose over $20 and is knocking on the door to a new all time high. The XAU was up over 3 points. ABX gained 1 3/4, GG was higher by almost 2 and NEM rose 1 1/2. Volume was average. I placed an early order for some ABX calls but it wasn't filled. I'm still a believer here though and am leaving in an overnight order for the ABX calls at a higher strike price. The Gold/XAU ratio remains on a buy signal even with the positive action today. I don't like to chase things but I'll make an exception this time. Of course it could just blow up in my face with less than 2 weeks to go in the June option cycle. Not to mention the possibility of a market free fall here that will take the gold shares with it. So we'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Looked over everything this weekend and decided that the gold shares were the place to attempt a trade. Might be too late, time will tell. Looking over the stock indices, I think that this will be the drop that will complete a 5 wave pattern to the downside from the April highs. That's what it appears to me. It will set up for some type of sideways or upwards trend for the beginning of the summer before we head lower again. That's my guess at the moment. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Friday, June 04, 2010
I had thought that perhaps we would break through the daily downtrend line on the major indices. Wrong again. The Dow lost 324 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 8 to 1 negative. The summation index will be heading back down after today. Am I sorry that I wasn't filled on the OEX puts yesterday? Of course but there is nothing I can do about it today. Next week should be interesting. We are in dangerous territory technically so stay tuned. Gold held up today gaining $7. The XAU fell 4 points though. ABX and GG were both off 7/8, while NEM fell 5/8. Volume was average. The Gold/XAU ratio is still on a buy signal. My thinking at the moment is to purchase some gold shares calls on the downside follow through on Monday if there is any. Gold is holding up rather well considering the upside in the dollar. The dollar had another strong day today. Gold is not paying attention. I'll consider things more over the weekend. Mentally I'm still quite tired. I need some rest to clear my thoughts. The problems overseas and with the euro are affecting the indices here in the US. That uncertainty isn't going away anytime soon. We are at the 1060 level in the S&P 500 again and that is key. Monday morning will be interesting. I will need to be ready. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to get prepared. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, June 03, 2010
We were up and we were down with the Dow finally ending up with a 5 point gain. Advance/declines were positive. Volume was average. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The McClellan oscillator moved back into positive territory and the summation index moved higher for the first time in weeks. I did have an order in for some OEX puts today but it wasn't filled. We never did get all the way back to the daily down trend line. Perhaps we will with the reaction to tomorrows employment report. Maybe even break through to the upside. But that's a guess as usual. Gold fell $12 today and the XAU fell 3 3/4. ABX dropped 3/4, GG lost a buck and NEM shed 1 3/8. Volume was light. The dollar was up on the day. I still may consider getting long the gold shares for the June option cycle. The Gold/XAU ratio remains near the buy signal. But there isn't a solid technical reason so I'm holding off for now. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep enough. Tomorrow probably will be an important day. We are close enough to the daily down trend line on the major indices that it very well may be broken to the upside. We also could fail here and head back down. The reaction or lack of to the employment report should be the catalyst. GE hasn't really moved much lately and I'm not thinking of trying a trade there again at the moment. So we'll see what happens tomorrow and if there is a trade there for me.
Wednesday, June 02, 2010
Back to the upside with a vengeance as the Dow gained 225 points. Advance/declines were better than 4 to 1 positive and the volume was average. The market is trying to hold on and it looks like it should succeed. But tomorrow is another day as we move back and forth here. We haven't made it to the down trend line yet but could tomorrow. I'm still leaning towards getting the OEX puts if and when that happens. However if we bust through the line on good volume, we'll know that the decline is over. Hasn't happened yet but it looks like it will based on todays action. Employment news on Friday. Gold lost $4 but the XAU was up 4 points following the overall market. ABX was up 1/2 while GG and NEM tacked on about a buck apiece. Volume looked a bit light there. You can't argue with price though. The Gold/XAU ration flashed another buy signal at the beginning of this shortened week. The dollar was up a touch today after being higher early. The gold shares continue to move higher but the volume has been light. No trades there for now. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. We should get some upside follow through tomorrow. I believe that I'll try to get some OEX puts if we reach 503 on that index. That is the level where the down trend line comes into play. That's the game plan at the moment.
Tuesday, June 01, 2010
We started the week and the month to the downside as the Dow lost 112 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. I am waiting for a snap back to the downtrend line in the OEX but it isn't happening. It has the feel again that we are just going to collapse. We are in the technical territory that I explained before that it could happen. I hope it doesn't but anything could happen here. The OEX puts a very expensive so I didn't get any. I'd like to own some before Fridays employment report but it doesn't look like that will happen at this point. Gold was up $8 on the futures but the XAU fell a point. ABX up 1/2, GG up 1/8 and NEM up 7/8. All were higher earlier in the day but fell with the overall market. Volume was good. If we do get a collapse in the stock market, I'll look to pick up some gold share calls. The metal itself has held up pretty good with the stock market volatility. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling pretty good, slept well. So we are at the moment of truth again for the stock market. Will it hold up here? A solid break of the 1060 level on the S&P 500 with a close below that level will spell big trouble in my opinion. But I've been wrong before as readers of the blog are aware. So we'll see how it plays out. Summation index heading lower with todays action and about the cross the zero line. Dangerous times again in my opinion. We'll see what tomorrow brings.