Wednesday, November 30, 2011
It was an incredible day as the central banks around the world issued a joint statement that basically said we will flood the world with money. Perhaps that will solve the European debt crisis is what I think they were thinking. The Dow soared 490 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about 7 to 1 positive. Todays action might turn the summation index back to the upside. It's still a headline driven affair here for the stock indices but after today the trend has turned back to positive until further notice. You cannot argue with price and volume. GE rose almost a buck on good volume. We are back to the 50 day moving average line on the daily charts. The GE calls I own are now in the black. I plan on holding them until next year, so there is still along time left in this trade I believe. Gold rallied on the liquidity news as the US dollar fell. The yellow metal was up over $30 on the futures. The XAU climbed almost 13 1/2. ABX up 2 7/8, GG rose 4 and NEM gained 3 1/2. Volume picked up here as well. I again placed an overnight order in for some ABX calls but wasn't filled. I would still like to buy some gold share calls, even with todays huge upside. Resistance for ABX and GG is at $55. Once we get through that level, there is nothing to stop those issues from moving higher. Any type of pullback can be bought in my opinion. The problem being that there may not be any downside going forward. We may just rally straight up. I will be keeping an eye on these issues and will buy the calls on any weakness. We have already gapped up twice on the gold shares this week, so they are very strong. Hopefully one of those gaps will be filled. Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated by not owning any gold share calls at the moment. But who was to know what would transpire today? Why would the central banks choose today as the day to announce the liquidity flush? There was a valid Gold/XAU signal Monday morning but we opened at a gap up and I don't like to chase trades. Obviously should have in this instance. But hindsight is always correct and that doesn't plan the next trade. We'll watch Europe rally overnight and see what happens tomorrow. Beginning of the month of December. Will the employment report on Friday even matter?
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
The Dow continued higher today with a gain of 32 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. We were in positive territory for much of the day. Working off the oversold condition but it doesn't look like some type of sustained rally yet. End of the month tomorrow. Still a headline driven marketplace. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. My calls here are in the red. No hurry one way or the other for this trade. Gold was up $5 on the futures as the dollar lost ground again. The XAU gained 1 1/2. ABX up 3/8, GG rose 5/8 and NEM was flat at the close. Volume was weak. I'd still like to try the calls for the gold shares but I'm trying to be patient. Perhaps if we take another leg down here, I'll get the January calls. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough or well. Kind of a blah day in the markets today. Perhaps the end of the month tomorrow will liven things up. Or we could be entering a period of wait and see as we head into December. The summation index is still implying lower prices for now. That could change with another strong up day. More oversold than overbought on the short term here for the stock indices. I'll keep an eye on GE and the gold shares and take it from there.
Monday, November 28, 2011
A bounce was due and a bounce is what we got as the Dow gained 291 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. I'm not sure it is anything more than just a bounce though. The same problems in Europe remain. The next headline will be the next market mover. This is the environment that we find ourselves in. Plenty of economic data out this week, including Fridays employment report. But it seems like nobody pays attention anymore as the focus remains the European debt problem. GE was higher early and then sold all the way back. It gained an 1/8 on average volume after being up 1/2. My GE calls are in the red. I plan on holding them until next year unless the bottom falls out. If GE is a proxy for the overall market again, the stock indices will be heading lower. Not sure if that is the case this time around. Gold had a good day as the US dollar dropped. The precious metal futures gained $25 on the day. The XAU rose 5 3/4. ABX up almost 2, GG higher by 1 1/4 and NEM tacked on 1 1/2. Volume was light as it has been lately. I did place an order for some ABX December calls overnight but it was not filled. I might try this trade again later in the week. The Gold/XAU ratio flashed a buy signal. If we get another one, I'll try this trade again. Mentally I'm feeling better but not 100% yet. We will have to see if the stock indices can hold up here. The summation index is still heading lower. I would like to see some type of positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator to be sure that the recent decline is over. That would be the ideal scenario. We will see if there is any follow through to todays price action tomorrow.
Friday, November 25, 2011
A holiday shortened session couldn't keep the Dow from going lower as we lost another 25 points on the day. The advance/declines were negative and the volume was extremely light. We are very oversold and closed on the low of the week. Not sure how long this keeps up but a bounce is long overdue. GE was flat on the day after being higher early. Volume extremely light. Gold fell over $10 on the futures and the XAU lost 2 1/3. The US dollar had another good day. ABX fell 1/3, GG down 1/2 and NEM lost 3/8. Volume was nothing to speak of. The Gold/XAU ratio is on the cusp of a buy signal. I think that I may try the gold share calls on Monday. I will consider it over the weekend. Mentally I'm still not feeling 100%. I'm going to rest up over the weekend and go from there. I'll check the charts and decide what to do. I'm going to hold on to the GE January calls for a while. I will try and come up with a strategy for the gold share calls if that is what I decide to do. It's the middle of a long holiday weekend and time for a break.
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Another day, another downer as the Dow fell 236 points and closed on the low for the day. The advance/declines were about 8 to 1 negative and the volume was light. No buyers in sight despite the very oversold condition. Could be dangerous. Not to mention we have a holiday tomorrow and a shortened session on Friday. I suppose we will look to the European markets for direction but they are in the same free fall as the US. Summation index gapping lower and I have no idea why the market is dropping. Not sure where we are heading from here but the stock indices must know something. GE fell 1/4 on average volume. I adjusted the open order for the January calls overnight and it wasn't filled despite the downdraft. I then went back to my original order and was filled. Plenty of time on this trade but it won't work if we continue to head in a straight line down. Not sure this is the right thing to do but it was the idea and I still think it may be valid. Time will tell. Gold fell $6 on the futures and was lower early. The US dollar had a very good day in the flight to safety for whatever reason. So gold itself held up pretty good. The XAU did not as it fell 5 1/2. ABX lost 1 1/8, GG dropped 2 1/8 and NEM down 1 1/2. Volume was light. The Gold/XAU ratio is just about at the recent buy level. I'm not sure if I should try the December of January gold share call options. The premiums are still high for January. It's something to think about this weekend because I don't think I'll be buying anything until next week. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well and I'm ill. Almost impossible for me to concentrate on what needs to be done. Thankfully it's a long weekend ahead and I should be back to normal on Monday. The stock indices are oversold both short and medium term. There will be some type of bounce soon. What happens after the bounce will determine what kind of market we're in. The markets continue to be held hostage by the European debt problems. It is still a headline trading driven affair. I think we will take our cues from what happens the rest of the week in the foreign markets. It's anybodies guess really. There is nothing wrong with waiting things out on the sidelines as well. The technicals are calling for a bounce and we haven't gotten any. Things could get interesting and not in a bullish way. We'll see.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Oversold and staying there as the Dow lost 53 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. There were rumblings from Europe about the debt problem and from the reading of the latest Fed minutes. Don't really know where we go from here. Should have had some type of bounce by now. Summation index still heading lower. I do not expect a collapse but what do I know? Not much trading left in the US this week with the Thanksgiving holiday looming. GE fell 1/4 on light volume. I still have the open order in for the January calls. Not exactly sure this is the right move the way the overall stock indices are acting but we are oversold on a daily basis. Plenty of time for this trade to work if the order does get filled but that won't matter if we just continue lower for an extended period of time. Gold bounced back over $20 on the futures. The US dollar bounced around today and ended about where it started. The XAU was up 2 7/8. ABX gained a buck, GG rose 7/8 and NEM up 1/2. Volume was light. I would still like to get the calls here on the gold shares for December or January. The ideal scenario would be for some base building in the near future. That, combined with a solid Gold/XAU ratio signal, is all we need. We'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. Also not feeling 100%. Oversold, staying there and not a lot of volume. These aren't bullish factors. The stock indices are oversold on a daily basis though. Lots of economic data out tomorrow but the markets haven't cared much about that lately. So on we go. It's a tough trading environment but we knew that already. Perhaps the GE call trade will fill tomorrow.
Monday, November 21, 2011
We started off the shortened trading week to the downside as the Dow fell 249 points on average volume. We were down well over 300 during the session. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. I was expecting a bounce and it hasn't happened. I did not expect any huge downside and that is exactly what we got. So my idea of what is going on here at the moment is wrong. Oversold and staying there and that is never bullish. Summation index is heading lower. Something is going on but I have no idea what that is. It's happened before. Europe, the US debt problem, fears of another recession, you pick the excuse. I still expect upside medium term for the stock indices but that could be wrong as well. GE lost 3/8 on average volume. I placed an open order for the January calls. I'm leaving it in overnight. The premiums are getting down to about what I'd like to pay for this trade. Not sure it will work but I'm willing to give it a shot. Plenty of time for this trade to work if the order does get filled. Unless we are on the verge of some type of market collapse. I still don't think that is about to happen. Gold got clobbered again today, off over $40 on the futures. The US dollar was higher again today but not a lot. I'm not sure what is going on with gold at the moment either. The XAU lost 3 2/3. ABX down 3/4, GG lower by 7/8 and NEM fell 1/8. Volume was average. The gold shares all came well off of their lows. I would still like to get some January or December calls here. Perhaps today was the day. I'm trying to wait for the Gold/XAU ratio to hit the recent number for a buy signal. Did not happen today. The gold shares are still performing better than the metal itself and that is bullish for the gold shares going forward. Mentally I'm feeling tired and not all that well. It makes the decision making even more of a chore. I'd still like to let this week pass before doing anything but I did place the GE trade. Once again there is something happening in the markets and I can't put my finger on it. I expected this week to be slow due to the holiday and it has started anything but that. We'll see what happens in the overseas markets tonight and take it from there.
Friday, November 18, 2011
Not a very volatile expiration Friday as the Dow gained 25 points in uneventful trading. The advance /declines were positive and the volume was light. The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow. We're short term oversold here and I would expect a bounce in the beginning of next week. I would also expect light volume next week as well with the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. I do not have any OEX trades in the works right now. GE was flat on light volume. The technicals here are oversold. I still would like to purchase the January calls here. Waiting for the premiums to get cheaper. Gold was up $5 today after yesterdays sell off. The US dollar was weaker today. The XAU was off 1 3/4. ABX and GG were off 3/8, while NEM lost 3/4. Volume light here too. We aren't oversold on the daily technicals for the gold shares just yet. However the weekly charts do not look constructive anymore for the bullish cause and patience is in order. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. I'm still a believer in higher prices for the stock indices medium term. We've been basically moving sideways for the past 4 weeks. The summation index is moving lower now and that is something to consider for the downside argument. The light volume lately isn't bullish either. So we'll see. I think staying on the sidelines next week would be a good strategy. It's getting to Friday night now and time for a rest.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Continuing lower today as the Dow fell 135 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. No real news to speak of to spark todays decline and we did come off of the lows. The summation index is heading lower. Getting short term oversold. I'm not exactly sure what's going on here but I still don't think we are on the verge of a collapse. Option expiration tomorrow. So we'll see what happens. GE was down 1/3 on better volume. We just broke the 50 day moving average line on the daily charts. When the premiums get to what I'd like to pay, I'm getting some January calls for GE. That time may be approaching soon. Gold took a hit today, off $55 on the futures. The US dollar was higher but not that much for gold to be down as far as it was. The XAU fell 7 3/8. ABX off 2 1/8, GG dropped 1 1/4 and NEM lost 1 3/4. Volume was more than lately but still not that much. I'd still like to get some gold share calls for the upcoming months. When we're oversold here on a daily basis, I'll be purchasing the calls. Perhaps within the next 2 weeks. We'll see. I'm also not sure why gold suddenly took a fall today as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. We're still basically moving sideways on the stock indices but are at the bottom of the channels. If GE is again the proxy for the stock markets, we will be breaking through to the downside. That remains to be seen. The volume has been light all around and that isn't bullish. We will also be entering tax selling season at the beginning of December. The technicals are what really matter and we are approaching oversold levels on a daily basis. Let's get through tomorrow and take it from there.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
We opened lower, made it all the way back and then got clobbered in the final hour to finish the day with a loss of 190 points on the Dow. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. A report came out late in the day about the US banks exposure to the European debt. As if nobody knew about this already. But that's what happens in an event driven marketplace. We are in the 4th week of sideways action in the stock indices, so perhaps we are going to break out to the downside. We'll have to see what comes out overnight. The economic data out today wasn't all that bad but continues to be ignored in the face of the European debt problem. That is the ongoing situation and it hasn't changed. GE was off 1/4 and the volume is still light. A waiting game here and it is probably better to be patient. Gold fell $8 in the futures market and some more in the aftermarket. The US dollar continues higher as the flight to safety is still in effect. The XAU dropped 4 bucks. ABX off 7/8, GG down 3/4 and NEM led the way lower by 1 2/3. Volume remains light here. Perhaps I'll get an opportunity to try the gold share calls for December or January if we continue lower. The weekly charts will not be looking as positive though if the downside here persists. I'm going to try and wait for the daily chart technicals to get oversold and take it from there. Not there yet. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept OK. I still think that the trend for the stock indices medium term remains up. I do not think we are heading into the abyss. I'm still a believer that we've seen the lows for the year and prices will be heading higher. The price of oil just broke $100 and that tells me there is demand. I don't think we're headed for a double dip recession. But what do I know? And does it really matter? In reality the only thing that really matters is the next trade. January GE calls or the December/January gold share calls. Those are the ideas for now.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
The Dow closed higher by 17 points today on light volume once again. The advance/declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. The pace has slowed down for some reason as the trading for the first 2 days this week has been rather lackluster. That could change at any moment on news though. No OEX trades in mind here at the moment. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Trying to hold the 50 day moving average line on the daily charts. Succeeding so far. I'm still waiting for an entry point for the January calls. Gold was up $5 on the futures after being lower early. The US dollar had another good day. The XAU was up 1/8. ABX, GG and NEM were all basically flat on the day on very light volume. I'll be looking to get long here once the technicals are oversold. Not close to that happening yet. I will try and remain patient. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. 3 days left in the November option cycle. So far this week has been a very light volume affair. I would expect that next week will be holiday slow as well. Like I said before, any news could spike the stock indices one way or the other without any notice. Or we could just meander around waiting for something to happen. The latter seems to be the case so far this week. There is a lot of economic data out this week but so far the markets aren't really paying attention. We still remain hostage to Europe.
Monday, November 14, 2011
We started off expiration week lower as the Dow lost 75 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. We came off of the worst levels of the day and the volume was light so I don't think this is the beginning of some kind of huge downside move. But anything can happen I suppose with all the problems in Europe. 4 days left on the November options and I doubt I'll be trying anything with the OEX this week. We're still dealing with the 200 day moving average lines on the major stock indices. GE was off 1/4 on light volume. The January calls are what I'm looking at there and have been for a while. When the premiums get to a level that I'd like to pay and the stock is oversold, that will be the time to try that idea. Gold was down $7 on the futures as the US dollar was higher today. The XAU fell 3 1/3. ABX, GG and NEM were all down a buck on light volume. I'd like to see the gold shares pull back some more before trying the calls here again. May not happen. I'm looking at the December and January options for ABX and GG. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. We still remain in an event driven marketplace and once again that is a tougher than usual trading environment. We have expiration week this week and a long holiday week next week with Thanksgiving. The prudent course of action here may just be to do nothing unless a valid technical signal appears. But that should almost always be the case. We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Positive news out of Europe today and the Dow gained 260 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. This is the type of up and down game we're in. Down almost 400 points on Wednesday and gaining it all back in the following 2 days. We are hovering at or below most of the 200 day average lines for the stock indices. How we resolve this issue will tell the most about longer term direction. I still think we will be seeing higher prices going forward. That's my guess for now. But we are still in a headline driven environment. Anything can happen overnight. GE was up 1/4 on light volume. I still will consider the January calls here if we get some pullback. Nothing doing for now. Gold had a good day, up almost $30 on the futures as the US dollar had a bad day. The XAU rose 6 3/4. ABX up 2, GG gained 2 1/2 and NEM tacked on 1 2/3. Volume was light but there were no sellers. I placed an overnight order in for some ABX calls but it wasn't filled. I was a day late here as we have started to move up again. With only 5 days to go in the November option cycle, I do not think that I'll try this trade again. But who knows? The weekly charts are still pointing to higher prices. I may go out to December or January if we get some downside. Mentally I'm not feeling good about missing that ABX trade at a higher strike price. We are overbought but with all the uncertainty in Europe, gold seems to be the place that is attracting money. I do think that ABX and GG will follow NEM to new highs in the next couple of months. That would require a break to the upside from the $55 level for both of these stocks on good volume. If and when these issues get through $55, they could move much higher since there is no resistance beyond that point. That is my idea for the gold shares in the medium term future. The stock indices are being moved around by the events in Europe on a daily basis. That is a tough game to play. I am looking for higher prices in the coming months but how we get there is anybodies guess. Only a week left in the November option cycle so I really don't see myself taking on any short term trades here but you never know. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
Thursday, November 10, 2011
We attempted to stabilize today after yesterdays debacle as the Dow gained 113 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. It's anybodies guess what happens from here. News could come out of Europe one way or the other. The technicals are not overbought or oversold on the stock indices, so we could go either way. I don't have any OEX trades in mind right now. 6 days to go in the November option cycle. GE was up 1/4 on average volume. No trades here for now either but I'm still considering the January calls here. Gold fell $30 on the futures today and the US dollar was weaker as well. I can't explain that. The gold shares held up rather well as the XAU only fell 7/8. ABX was flat, GG lost 3/8 and NEM dropped 1/2. Volume was light. All were lower early and that may have been the time to get the November calls for a short term trade. Perhaps. That is the only trade that I'm considering at the moment. Very risky though with a little over a week to go for the options. The gold shares are outperforming the metal itself though and that is bullish going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Longer term I'm looking for higher prices but where we go in the near term is the question. Was yesterday just a one day blowout or the beginning of something bigger? Obviously, I don't have the answer. I had a better feel for things a few weeks ago. I still think I want to try the ABX calls again here. The weekly chart still looks positive. Perhaps I'll go out to December instead of January for that idea on a longer basis. We'll see. I'll consider things overnight and go from there.
Wednesday, November 09, 2011
Troubles in Italy took center stage as we remain in a headline driven market. The Dow fell 389 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 9 to 1 negative. I had thought we might continue to the upside but that was wrong. We are hostage to what happens overseas. Where we go from here is anybodies guess. The technicals will get thrown out the window. After a day like today you've got to figure that we're heading lower. Europe continues to be an ongoing problem and there really is no end in sight. It makes for very difficult trading for sure. The sidelines isn't a bad place to be but you don't make any money there. You also don't lose any either. GE was off 2/3 on good volume. I'm back to considering the January calls. We aren't really oversold here on a medium term basis, so I'm in no hurry. Gold fell $7 on the futures and another $20 in the aftermarket. The US dollar was very strong today as the euro plummeted. Gold held up pretty good early but then dropped. The XAU lost 7 1/4. ABX down 7/8, GG lower by 1 1/4 and NEM led the way falling 2 1/3. Volume was good to the downside, which isn't bullish. But I still might try the ABX calls for November again. The relative strength of the gold shares here is very good. The technicals are starting to roll over though. If the stock market heads lower here, it will take the gold shares with it. So this isn't going to be an easy trade to put on. Plus there are only 7 days left in the November option cycle. I'm also considering going out to the January contract as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility really picked up today and that could be a sign of danger for the stock indices near term. Or some positive news comes out of Europe tomorrow and we rally 300 points. That is the problem trading right now. Anything can happen in rapid fashion. If you're on the right side of things it will turn out well. If you're not, you'll get wiped out. I might put in an overnight order for some ABX calls but I will have to study things tonight. I also may just sit things out. After the last ABX trade, I need to be careful not to project what happened there into the future. Not every trade is going to be a big winner. I'll check the charts and take it from there.
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
We bounced around today and then continued higher as the Dow gained 101 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. We got some news out of Italy today that the market viewed as positive. So we continue to live in a headline driven trading world. Perhaps we can take out the recovery highs this week or before expiration. Summation index still heading higher. Getting short term overbought. GE was up an 1/8 on better volume. The daily chart looks constructive for more gains here but I'm not sure that I'll try something with 8 days left in the November option cycle. Maybe. Gold was up $8 on the futures as we crossed the $1800 level early in the day. But we sold off in the aftermarket after the Italy news. The US dollar lost ground too as the safe haven trade was taken off for a day. The XAU dropped 1 2/3. ABX off 3/4, GG fell 2/3 and NEM lost 1/2. Volume was average. I dumped the ABX calls during the session for a gain of 575%. I still like the gold shares but wanted to lock in a decent profit while in the overbought technical condition. I still may try these again before expiration, moving to a higher strike price. I'm also looking out to January here as well. We are overbought but in this type of market environment anything can happen. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep enough. The stock indices continue higher as it's possible that we will simply rally into the expiration. Or not. That is the problem here as the uncertain, headline driven marketplace moves forward. I don't have any trades in mind here at the moment. I do favor higher prices near term. The ABX trade is done. I had the biggest loss of the year in the previous trade followed by the biggest gain. That doesn't mean anything. It's on to the next idea as there are still 8 days left in the November option cycle. I usually don't do too well with the short term trades though. The weekly gold share charts are still looking like there's room to run on the upside. It's possible that I'll try the ABX calls again for November. We'll see what kind of news comes out overnight and take it from there.
Monday, November 07, 2011
Although we opened higher, we were lower for much of the day but made a comeback in the last 2 hours and closed on the high of the day. The Dow gained 85 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. Now Italy is the problem as the focus remains in Europe. It's a different country every day it seems like now. I think we could head higher off of todays close. We're not at high overbought levels on the technicals for the stock indices. Of course we are one bad headline from Europe away from a decline as well. It's a tricky trading environment. GE was flat on light volume. The technicals here mirror the overall market as well. No trades in the pipeline for GE right now. Gold had a good day on the European worries, up $35 on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 6 1/3. ABX rose 1 3/8, GG up almost 2 and NEM broke out to new highs with a gain of 2 3/4. Volume was OK for the gold shares but I would have liked to see more. Very overbought here now. My ABX calls continue to gain ground but I can't hold on to them forever. ABX was the laggard today and that isn't a good sign. I might just bail out tomorrow. We'll see. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well. We're still being held hostage by Europe. It's the ongoing saga and there is no end in sight. Not a lot of economic data out this week. It will probably be a headline driven affair for the stock indices this week. Gold had a good day despite the US dollar being higher for much of the day. I'm not sure gold can just continue up in a straight line as we are approaching $1800. I will have to ponder what to do with the ABX calls tonight as I have held them for almost 3 weeks and they are considerably overbought. However NEM, which is usually the gold share leader, has just broken out to new highs. Is it possible that GG and ABX could follow? The weekly charts still point to higher prices. Tough call but I don't want to get too greedy and I don't want to miss out on the gains. The game is never easy.
Friday, November 04, 2011
We were lower all day today but pared some of the losses as the day wore on. The Dow closed down 61 points on light volume. We were down around 190 in the early going. The advance/declines were negative. The employment report was mixed, with better revision numbers but weaker job gains in October. The focus was on Greece once again as there is another vote of some sort to be held tonight. The markets are being held hostage by the headlines in Europe. That is the ongoing story. GE fell 1/4 on light volume. No trades here for now. Gold was weaker today as the US dollar gained on the Europe story. The gold futures fell $8. The XAU dropped 2/3 but was much lower early as well, following the overall stock market. ABX down 2/3, GG off 1/4 and NEM was flat. Volume was light here. That is what you'd like to see if you're looking for higher prices. My ABX calls lost some ground today. I really need to exit this trade next week. That is what I should do, if we get any strength. Overbought on ABX and staying there but that won't last. The weekly charts still look positive but there are only 2 weeks left in the November option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept good. It was a down week for the stock indices but there is nothing in my mind to think that this is the beginning of some type of extended down trend. The summation index is still heading higher. The markets are waiting for some type of resolution on Greece and the European debt situation. This is a story that just keeps dragging on. It is really anybodies guess as to how that all plays out. As for the ABX trade, it's still showing a decent profit. I'll probably dump them next week. I'll be checking the charts and the headlines over the weekend. I expect the volatility will continue for the time being. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, November 03, 2011
We continued higher today as the Dow gained 208 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Still dealing with the daily drama from Greece. The market moves up and down according to that news for now. We do have the employment report out tomorrow but unless it's something out of the ordinary, it won't mean much. That's my opinion. It's still a European headline moving market. We are moving off of the early week short term oversold condition. GE was up 3/8 on average volume. Just biding my time here as there is no imminent trade yet in my mind. I could be wrong. Gold had a good day, up $35 on the futures as the US dollar was lower. Gold is also getting some of the flight to safety money I believe. The XAU rose 5 7/8. ABX up 1 1/2, GG gained 1 1/4 and NEM led the way higher by 2 3/4. Volume was average. My ABX calls are back to being solidly in the black. Short term overbought and staying there for ABX. The weekly charts still look constructive though. There's still 2 weeks left in the November option cycle. I don't want to get too greedy though. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. It's been a volatile week so far for the stock indices. Anything can and will happen in this type of environment. I don't have any OEX trades in mind right now as I'm focusing on ABX. I am going to try and time the exit properly but we all know how that goes. ABX has almost had a straight line up move in the past 2 weeks and that won't last forever. We'll see what happens tomorrow. There is still plenty of time left in this trade but I don't think I'll be holding it until the last day of the option cycle. I do have a target in mind but it is more technically related than price related. We'll see.
Wednesday, November 02, 2011
A bounce in the Dow after the last two negative sessions as we ended the day with a gain of 178 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The Fed spoke, people listened and we got on with it. I didn't like the fact that the volume was light today. However we are moving to a short term oversold condition on the stock indices and that may provide some relief for the bulls. Or not. Next up is the employment report on Friday. That doesn't mean that we aren't wary of anything coming out or Europe. That's the wild card here. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was light here as well. The technical condition of GE is a mirror of the overall market. No trades here for now. Gold was up about $25 on the futures as the US dollar fell a buck today. The XAU rose 4 1/2. ABX up 1 1/4, GG higher by 1 2/3 and NEM gained a buck. Volume was average here. My ABX calls are still in the black. I am thinking about getting rid of them soon but the technicals are not yet as overbought as I would like. That said, getting a profit out of this trade is imperative. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. Todays market action looked like nothing more than an oversold bounce but I could be wrong. The markets are waiting for some news from Greece. That will be the key for the near term direction. The problem there is that you just don't know what's going to happen. It's hard to trade off of that. But that is the market reality we're in at the moment. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Tuesday, November 01, 2011
The Dow continued lower today with a vengeance as we lost 297 points on good volume. The advance/declines were around 7 to 1 negative. The troubles in Europe returned today and it looks like that story just won't die. I did not expect a big decline here and I was wrong. No telling exactly what may happen now. The markets are being held hostage by Greece. It sounds stupid but that is the story for now. Moving to oversold very quickly but there is still room to go lower if the market wants to. We have moved back down into the previous congestion zone. I suppose anything can happen at this point. GE opened gap down and lost 2/3 on increasing volume. Maybe I will get a chance for the January calls after all. However at this time, in this market environment, it would be better to let things shake out first. It is getting a little crazy. Gold sold off early and then made somewhat of a comeback. The futures were only off 5 bucks after being much lower. The US dollar had another huge up day in the flight to safety. The XAU was off 2 points and bounced around all day. ABX lost an 1/8, GG rose an 1/8 and NEM fell 1 1/4. These issues also bounced around after opening much lower. Volume was average. My ABX calls a started the day in the red but made a comeback and are back in the black for now. The volatility is enormous at the moment. That will keep the option premiums higher than usual. I'm holding on to the ABX calls for now but could exit at any time. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. We have the Fed tomorrow and the employment report on Friday and it seems like that doesn't even matter. It is a headline and event driven marketplace once again. It makes for tougher than usual trading. It also presents opportunities if you are astute enough to find them. The weekly ABX charts still look good to the upside to me but that could evaporate at any time. It is that type of situation that we find ourselves in. We'll see what happens in Europe overnight and go from there. It will be interesting.