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Thursday, November 10, 2011

We attempted to stabilize today after yesterdays debacle as the Dow gained 113 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. It's anybodies guess what happens from here. News could come out of Europe one way or the other. The technicals are not overbought or oversold on the stock indices, so we could go either way. I don't have any OEX trades in mind right now. 6 days to go in the November option cycle. GE was up 1/4 on average volume. No trades here for now either but I'm still considering the January calls here. Gold fell $30 on the futures today and the US dollar was weaker as well. I can't explain that. The gold shares held up rather well as the XAU only fell 7/8. ABX was flat, GG lost 3/8 and NEM dropped 1/2. Volume was light. All were lower early and that may have been the time to get the November calls for a short term trade. Perhaps. That is the only trade that I'm considering at the moment. Very risky though with a little over a week to go for the options. The gold shares are outperforming the metal itself though and that is bullish going forward. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Longer term I'm looking for higher prices but where we go in the near term is the question. Was yesterday just a one day blowout or the beginning of something bigger? Obviously, I don't have the answer. I had a better feel for things a few weeks ago. I still think I want to try the ABX calls again here. The weekly chart still looks positive. Perhaps I'll go out to December instead of January for that idea on a longer basis. We'll see. I'll consider things overnight and go from there.

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