Thursday, April 30, 2015
To the downside on heavy volume to close out the month of April. The Dow fell 195 points and was negative all day long. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. This will turn the summation index lower. The TRAN and the small stocks got whacked. It looks like lower prices are in the near future. The small stocks have broken the uptrend line from last October. I'd expect the larger cap issues to follow. So look for more selling. GE only lost a penny on good volume. That is excellent relative strength. I still like the June calls or perhaps July if we move down to $26-$26.50. No hurry with a defensive overall market. Gold got clobbered and fell over $25 on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar. I do not understand the disconnect with these two markets at the moment. The XAU dropped 1 7/8, while GDX shed about 2/3. Volume was good. The gold shares have once again held up rather well despite the drop in gold. We'll see how we close out the week here tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. It appears a decent decline is starting and it looks like I missed it. Perhaps I was too focused on ABX. More likely my prognosis for higher prices was just wrong. No money lost at least. Two weeks to go in the May option cycle after tomorrow. Perhaps if we get short term oversold, I could try a bounce trade. However it looks like the trend has changed. GLD and SLV had gaps to the downside. That doesn't bode well for the precious metals. GG came out with earnings and they disappointed. So trading the long side in the gold shares right now probably isn't a good idea. The European markets stopped going down yesterday. We'll see how they react to todays US decline overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
An interesting session as the Dow fell 74 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The GDP report was weak and the market responded with a sell off. The Fed was viewed as slightly hawkish but we bounced around after that. The TRAN and the small stocks remained weak and that isn't bullish. Some of the foreign markets were very weak, so I guess we held up OK for today. The technical indicators have rolled over for the small stocks and are just beginning to for the larger cap averages. I suppose I'll have to change my bullish stance to cautious for now. GE was off a few cents and the volume was average. I'm still considering the June calls here when GE gets oversold. Gold had an interesting day as well. The futures were down a few bucks despite the US dollar getting crushed again. That did not make sense to me. The futures fell a bit more after the Fed but it wasn't a rout. The gold shares fared much better as the XAU rose about 2/3 and GDX about 1/4. Volume was good. ABX added about 20 cents on good volume. I sold my ABX calls after the Fed for a small 15% gain. The timing was bad but at least it wasn't a loss. ABX recovered for the rest of the session. I do not usually do well with short term option trades and this was no exception. Back to the drawing board. Mentally I'm doing OK. The Dow held up OK considering the drops we saw overseas. I do not have any SPY trades in mind for now but if a decent signal appears before the May expiration, I may give it a try. It appears that the market is trying to make up its mind which way to go here. We haven't really had a sustained move one way or the other for a while. I'm on the sidelines for now. The action in the gold shares today ended up positive considering the decline in gold. I may had sold the ABX May calls early. Make no mistake. You do not put in the time and the effort to trade options for a 15% gain. You are really looking at 100% or more gains to take on the risk in that game. I was late to try this trade and attempted to trade the break out. It still looks like ABX has broken out but it hasn't been what I expected yet. I'll simply have to wait for the next idea to come with the gold shares. GG reports earnings tomorrow. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and see if the Dow follows through to the downside to close out the month.
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Back to the upside today as the Dow rose 72 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is heading sideways at this time. We did sell off early and then come all the way back for a one day reversal to the upside. The action was the opposite of yesterday. Most major stock indices made a comeback today but the NASDAQ didn't make it into positive territory. Tomorrow will be interesting with the 1st quarter GDP early and then the Fed later in the day. I'm not sure which way we'll go but I still have to lean towards bullish outcomes for now. GE was up 1/4 on average volume. It looks as though we have put in a hammer here on the daily candlestick chart. That bodes well for higher prices here. Gold followed through to the upside on US dollar weakness. The precious metal futures added another $10 to yesterdays stellar gains. Could the traders here think that we'll get a weak GDP report followed by a dovish Fed? Or is there something else behind the recent strength? The XAU was up 2 3/8, while GDX gained 3/4. Volume was good again showing that the gold shares are receiving some interest here. The earnings for ABX were weaker than expected but it rallied anyway. ABX gained 1/2 on good volume and closed above $13. Some of the technical indicators for ABX are pretty extended in overbought territory. My ABX May calls are showing a small profit. I probably should get rid of them sooner rather than later. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Nothing to do now with respect to the stock market except wait to see the reaction to tomorrows developments. The sideways summation index tells you that things can go either way. The technicals are in the overbought zone but that doesn't mean it can't stay that way. So we'll see. Gold has had a couple of good days in a row and the indicators have roared back to the upside. It's possible that gold is telling us what to expect tomorrow. We'll know in less than 24 hours. As usual we'll watch the overnight action and then see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, April 27, 2015
A one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 42 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The TRAN and the small stocks were weak today and that is not a positive. The major stock indices have been short term overbought and weakness is overdue. I don't think this is the beginning of some type of extended decline. We've got GDP and the Fed on Wednesday and that should be an interesting day. I would not be surprised if we see more downside this week. GE was up slightly on average volume. I'm still considering the June calls here but will wait for GE to get oversold before purchase. Gold had a good day as the futures rose $28. The US dollar was weaker as well. Not sure where the above average strength in gold came from. The XAU rose 1 3/4 and GDX added 3/8. Volume was good for the gold shares but we finished well off of the highs for the session. ABX broke above $13 on heavy volume so I put in an order for the May calls in case it pulled back. It did and the order was filled. Unfortunately for me, ABX kept moving lower. It finished the day up 1/4 on heavy volume. Perhaps it was a false break out. The May calls I bought are already losers. Earnings are out for ABX tomorrow morning. That will probably make or break this trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. One day doesn't make a trend but it wasn't a good start to the week for stocks. We'll have to see how the summation index looks after todays price action. If that rolls over, we could be in for more than a couple days of weakness. I don't expect any surprises from the Fed. Gold and silver moved up pretty good today. Not even close to overbought for these two. However it could just be a one day wonder. Time will tell on that. I may have made a mistake with this ABX May call trade. It certainly looked like a valid break out to the upside. Tomorrows earnings will tell the story there. We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and see what happens tomorrow.
Friday, April 24, 2015
The drift higher continues as the Dow tacked on another 21 points on average volume. The advance/declines were about even. The NASDAQ is now setting new all time highs and the response is a yawn. That is bullish. The small stocks continue to out perform and things won't get all that bearish under these conditions in my view. We are due for a rest though as the short term overbought condition for the major stock indices is getting long in the tooth. I don't see any huge declines coming though. GE was off a few cents and the volume was light. Not oversold here yet. The plan remains to get some GE June calls when it gets oversold. Gold got walloped today and fell almost $20 on the futures. The US dollar was lower as well. The XAU only dropped 2/3 and GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. The gold share indexes were helped by the positive earnings report from NEM. FCX was higher today as well. I'm now thinking that perhaps some ABX calls before its earnings report could be a trade. NEM benefited from its cost cutting plan and ABX has a similar course of action. Something to ponder over the weekend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Declines can be bought in my opinion for the major stock indices. I don't see anything near term to derail the upside. The advance/decline line continues to make new highs. we've got the Fed meeting next week but I don't see any surprises coming from that. The first quarter GDP number will probably be the biggest market mover. But that's a guess as usual. The gold shares holding up in the face of the declining metal is a positive for them. That kind of out performance usually leads to higher gold share prices. However we are not completely oversold on the gold shares and I don't want to jump the gun. This is also not a seasonally strong period for gold. So there is plenty to consider before putting on a trade here. It never gets easy. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend and trying to come up with something that seems reasonable to attempt. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, April 23, 2015
Grinding higher as the Dow added 20 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We were higher for much of the session but drifted off in the final hour. Some new intra-day all time highs today for various major stock indices. We are however, still short term overbought on numerous technical indicators. I don't have any SPY trading ideas at the moment. GE was off 6 cents on average volume. Waiting for an oversold condition here to purchase the June calls. Gold was up $7 on the futures as the US dollar had a weak session. The XAU gained 1 1/4, while GDX rose 1/2. Volume was decent to the upside. Still overbought for the gold shares and patience is required before getting any calls here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Although overbought, the market has the feel as though it wants to move higher. The small stocks are holding up quite well and the TRAN has been moving higher of late. I do not want to chase things here. However if we break out to the upside, there is no overhead resistance. I suppose you really don't want to miss that because there could be some good gains in a short amount of time. I'll keep an eye on things. Patience is my mantra for the gold market right now. We'll finish out the trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
Continuing higher as the Dow rose 88 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. Still trying to get to new all time highs for the major stock indices but not there yet. The summation index is tracking sideways. The breadth hasn't been all that great heading up this time. So perhaps some more backing and filling is necessary. But that is a guess on my part. One solid up day with good breadth could change things. No SPY trades for now. GE finally showed some life and rose almost 1/3 on good volume. There was plenty of volume yesterday in the GE June 27 puts and calls. Way above average and the open interest expanded. I don't know what it means but the GE June 27 calls were on my radar even before yesterday. Waiting for GE to get oversold before purchase. Gold fell over $15 on the futures today. The US dollar finished the session little changed again. The XAU dropped 1 7/8, while GDX shed 2/3. Volume picked up to the downside. Not sure what to make of it but it could be the beginning of another leg down in the precious metals complex. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The small stocks continue to be holding up well here and that lends to the bullish cause. However the short term technical indicators are in the overbought zone. They could stay that way though if we continue higher. It is looking as though last Fridays decline was a one day affair. I'm going to hold off on any option purchases for this week. That is the game plan for now. Patience is also advised for calls on the gold shares. It appears that we have just rolled over there. Time will tell on that. We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US higher overnight and see what happens tomorrow.
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
A one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index fell 85 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about even. It was a mixed bag as the small stocks continued higher. The TRAN was up as well. So I don't know what to make of things at the moment. But I am looking for higher prices eventually in the coming weeks. No trades in the SPY yet though. GE was off 40 cents and the volume remains heavy. Getting close to $26.50 but I am in no hurry to get the calls here. There is a huge gap to be filled as well here on the daily chart. Perhaps I'll wait until GE gets back to the 50 day moving average. We'll see. Gold was up almost $10 on the futures today. The US dollar finished the session about unchanged. The XAU and GDX barely moved. Volume remains very light for the gold shares. No trades here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Still in a waiting game for the major stock indices at this point. A break out or a break down remains the question. There is also the prospect of the continuation of the sideways price action that has been going on for the past 2 1/2 months. I am probably at least going to wait for this week to pass before considering a trade in the SPY. There isn't a good signal yet and sometimes you just have to be patient. This seems to be one of those times. Gold remains a light volume drift for the past 2 weeks. Light volume usually means little interest. That is the case right now for the precious metals. Once again, there is no need to rush anything here either. So we sit and wait for the right time and opportunity. We'll watch the overnight action as usual and see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, April 20, 2015
Back to the upside as the Dow gained 208 points on light volume. the advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. Sometimes the day following option expiration has the opposite price action of the expiration itself. This occurs quite frequently. We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out to get a better idea of where we are going. The small stocks and the TRAN had good days and that is a plus for the bulls. The summation index did roll over on Friday but todays action should bring us back to at least sideways there. No SPY trades right now. GE was off 1/4 and the volume remains heavy. We still haven't made any gains here after the restructuring announcement. However I am still in the camp of getting some calls if we get back to $26.50. That is the idea here for now. Gold was off almost $10 on the futures as the US dollar rose today. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. No trades for me in the gold shares until they get oversold and they aren't even close to that. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A whipsaw market for the past two days and that isn't easy to attempt to trade. We've just rolled into the May option cycle so there is no hurry to act. Patience is needed now until we get a decent signal. However if by chance we break out to the upside, we need to get on board because there is no overhead resistance. I thought perhaps we'd break out last month but we didn't. Keep an eye out for that. The gold shares continue to outperform but the volume is light. Plus gold itself does not look interesting right now. I'm simply going to wait for a set up here but I don't know how long it will take. The seasonal timing for gold here is not bullish as well. There is no rush to do anything yet. We'll watch what happens in the foreign arena overnight and go from there.
Friday, April 17, 2015
A decidedly negative finish to the week as the Dow fell 279 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. This should turn the summation index back down. I don't think that this is the beginning of something big to the downside but I certainly don't know. We were overbought on the major stock indices and today begins to alleviate that condition. There are rumblings about Greece again and the European markets were weak overnight. We'll have to see what happens Monday to get a better feel for what is going on. GE ended flat on the session as it was up and down on the earnings report. We never made it back to the highs of last Friday during this whole week. I'm still thinking of getting the calls again if we get back to $26.50. Until then, it's a waiting game. Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar stopped going down. The XAU and GDX were flat on the session. Volume was light. The gold shares are overbought at the moment. Patience is the strategy for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A weak close to the week but we did finish above the lows for the day. I don't know what brought about todays activity but there were sellers around. It is now a matter of waiting for the next decent signal for the SPY. We'll roll into the May option cycle with hopefully an open mind. Not a lot of economic data out next week. It looks like the Bollinger bands are converging on the daily gold chart. This implies some type of move coming there. As always, which way is the question. The gold shares are short term overbought. The weekly charts have more room to move higher. I'll need to see things get oversold before I can feel good about putting on a trade here. But who knows? I'll be checking the charts again over the weekend and see what I can come up with. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, April 16, 2015
Running in place today as the Dow lost 6 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. Still short term overbought and getting there medium term now as well. Simply waiting for the next signal with respect to the SPY. Option expiration tomorrow and we will roll over to the May cycle. GE was off over 1/8 and the volume remains heavy. Earnings here tomorrow should get things moving. Gold was off a few bucks despite the US dollar getting hammered again. That isn't bullish for the precious metal. The XAU fell 7/8 and GDX was off 1/4. Volume was nothing special. No hurry to do any trading in the gold shares right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No good trading ideas at the moment in my mind. At all time highs for some of the stock indices but not there for others. The TRAN is lagging quite a lot here. Not sure what it means. The small stocks are holding up OK. Most of the indexes are overbought though and perhaps a pause is due once we get past the expiration. Otherwise it's a waiting game for the next opportunity. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments and finish off the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, April 15, 2015
Trying to head higher as the Dow gained 75 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to the upside. New all time highs today for some of the stock indices. Others are knocking on the door. A negative today was the TRAN though, as it finished well off of its highs. I dumped the SPY April calls that I had for a gain of around 35%. I didn't get the best price of the day but I could not hold on to this trade any longer. Even with 2 days left here, I could not risk it. The technical indicators are short term overbought for the major stock indices. We could stay that way but we could roll over here as well. GE was off 1/4 and the volume is still heavy. We haven't been able to build on the gains of last Friday here. Earnings due in 2 days. A move back to $26.50 will get me interested in the calls again. Gold was up 8 bucks today on the futures. The US dollar continues to decline. A weaker dollar helps support the stock market here as well. The XAU gained 2 3/4, while GDX added 1/2. Volume picked up to the upside. ABX is at the top of its trend channel here at $13. I'll wait for it to head back down to the bottom of the channel before attempting the calls. Or it could be that the down trend for the gold shares is over here and I simply have missed the boat. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So now it's a matter of finding the next trade. I'm still leaning to the bullish side for now, even with the overbought condition. If the S&P 500 breaks out to a new high, there is no overhead resistance. But perhaps patience will be the best course of action for now. GE has the earnings report on Friday. I suppose if I had more guts, I could buy the at the money puts and calls tomorrow and see what happens. One side would expire worthless and the other would be profitable. That is how it would work in theory anyway. Gold seems to be in a drift at the moment. However the gold shares have out performed recently and that is a positive. We are entering a period of possible under performance for gold according to the calendar. Any gold share call buying should probably be postponed for now. That's my best guess at the moment. We'll watch what happens overnight and go from there.
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 59 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The small stocks were weaker today and that is bearish. However the summation index continues higher. My SPY April calls are still losers with only 3 days left in the April option cycle. Retail sales came in about where expected. We get the Fed beige book tomorrow and that could get things moving. I'm going to have to dump this trade soon as time is running out. GE was up a dime on still heavy volume. Earnings due Friday morning. No trade for me here as the risk outweighs the reward at this point. However if GE pulls back to the recent breakout point, calls will be in order. Gold was off 6 bucks on the futures despite a pretty good drop in the US dollar. The XAU was up 3/4, while GDX rose 1/8. Volume was light. There is no hurry to trade the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm thinking that if my SPY April calls get to positive territory in the next day or so, I'll sell them at whatever I can get. Otherwise this trade will be a loser. I do not want to take a big % loss here. So attention must be paid. The short term technical indicators remain overbought on the major stock indexes. So we'll see what happens tomorrow. I may have to wait on the Feds beige book. We are still knocking on the door for new all time highs. We'll keep an eye on the overseas developments and see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, April 13, 2015
A one day reversal to the downside to begin expiration week as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The Dow fell 80 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. Not a good start to the week for the bulls. The summation index is still moving higher but another day like today will change that. My SPY April calls had a slight profit this morning but are now losers. I'm at least going to give them until tomorrow, with retail sales coming out in the morning. We also have the Fed beige book on Wednesday. However I cannot hold this trade forever. GE opened with a gap lower and never recovered. It fell 7/8 on very heavy volume. There was a negative article about GE in Barrons over the weekend, so the good feelings of the restructuring got wiped out quickly. There are still the earnings on Friday to digest. My GE April calls never got back to the ten bagger that they were at the close on Friday. I decided to just take what I could get and be thankful for that. I dumped the calls for a 600% profit. Luck was the overriding factor in that trade. Gold fell $5 on the futures as the US dollar was little changed by the end of the session. The XAU lost a point and GDX was down 1/8 or so. Volume was light. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Almost back to full strength as well. We are knocking on the door to new all time highs on some of the major stock indices. We will need to see some kind of catalyst to move higher and I'm not sure what that could be. Unless we head higher tomorrow, I'm afraid that the SPY April call trade will be a loser. Todays price action was not positive. The only plus was the very light volume. More an absence of buyers, then real selling. But that could all change in a flash. I'll be keeping an eye on things. GE did not have any positive follow through. It was disappointing but that trade is over now. I'm advising patience for the gold shares. Calls will be in order again once we get back to oversold territory. It should take a while. Earnings will be another hurdle to get over in a month or so. No rush to put on a call trade here. We'll see if the foreign markets follow the Dow lower overnight and take it from there.
Friday, April 10, 2015
The drift higher continues as the Dow rose 99 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. Getting to short term overbought on the daily technicals. The summation index continues higher. Expiration week on deck and perhaps the positive bias will take effect. The small stocks aren't outperforming lately and that is a cause for concern. However the TRAN has turned things around and that is a plus. My SPY April calls are now showing a small profit. The best move here will probably be to sell them early next week. GE had a day for the ages as it rose 10% on extraordinary volume. Now money managers are trying to determine how the restructuring announced yesterday puts a number on the price of the stock. Obviously people think that now GE is worth a lot more than it was on Monday. The GE April calls that were almost worthless Monday are now worth ten times what I paid for them. Only one way to describe that, sheer luck. On the GE weekly chart there is now a high volume breakout from a sideways consolidation that lasted for about a year and a half. This move is for real. Gold was up over $10 today on the futures despite another rise in the US dollar. Not sure what that means. The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2. Volume was better than it has been but nothing heavy. The technical indicators for the gold shares are in the short term overbought region. Mentally I'm feeling OK and getting better physically as well. Some of the major stock indices are getting close to new all time highs again. However to break through, I think we would need some kind of positive catalyst. I don't see anything like that here. But what do I know? We are due for some type of pause because the volume this week has been light and the breadth hasn't been all that great. But the market will go where it wants to. It will be interesting to see if GE continues to keep going straight up on Monday. I'll need to sell those GE April calls at some point next week. Gold has had some buyers in the past few weeks but I don't think that it is the start of anything substantial. ABX remains the stock of choice there for now as it continues to outperform. The problem is that once everybody knows which stock is doing better, it usually means that it's too late. I don't have any gold share trades in the works right now. I'll be resting and checking the charts over the weekend. Having a solid game plan for next week is a must. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, April 09, 2015
Moving higher now as the Dow gained 56 points on light volume. The advance/declines were only about even though. The summation index is heading up. Not sure what to make of things here. The short term technical indicators for the major indices have turned up but without any conviction. My SPY April calls are still showing a loss. GE was the star of the day, rising almost 3/4 on heavy volume. GE is selling its real estate portfolio and the market viewed it as a positive. Talk about a market miracle. My GE April calls are now back to break even. Perhaps I won't be waiting for the earnings report. Gold was off about $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a strong session yet again. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on extremely light volume. Mentally and physically I remain tired. I'm hoping to be at full strength after the weekend. It's impossible to make the right decisions with a foggy mind. The overall market was stronger than the Dow today but the weak advance/declines says we may be in for a couple of days rest. Expiration week on the horizon and I'm banking on the usual positive bias. But the market will go where it wants. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
Wednesday, April 08, 2015
It was a day with some volatility but we finished the session with a gain of 27 points on light volume. The advance /declines were positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the small stocks leading the way. That's usually bullish going forward. We did get some gyrations with the Fed minutes. Things still could go either way. My SPY April calls are in the red with only 7 days to go. GE was flat on the session and volume is very light. Looks like I'll be holding out for the earnings report here due in ten days. Gold was off $7 on the futures and the US dollar was up just a bit. The XAU fell a point and GDX had a small fractional loss. No trades in the gold shares for me right now. Mentally I'm feeling tired and physically as well. Trading is hard enough under normal conditions. Being ill makes it next to impossible. I'm doing the best I can under the conditions. The TRAN had a good day and that could mean higher prices are coming. That doesn't mean we won't be lower tomorrow but it is encouraging going out a few days. I'll need to see some kind of rally in the stock indexes to have any chance to exit the SPY April call trade with a profit. I'm cutting things short again today as I do need to get some rest. Hopefully I'll be feeling better tomorrow. One thing that is for sure is that the markets move on with or without you, regardless of your health. It is neither good nor bad, just simply the way things are in this game.
Tuesday, April 07, 2015
Yesterday was a one day reversal to the upside on the weak employment report. Today was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow fell 5 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. We are still searching for a trend here as the market has been basically sideways for while. The short term technical indicators are trying to move to the upside but there is no sustained momentum. My SPY April calls remain in the red. GE was off 1/8 or so on very light volume. GE cannot get anything going to the upside and my GE April calls will end up dead. Unless we see a huge rally in the market or blowout earnings numbers, this trade is a loser. Gold lost $8 on the futures as the US dollar had a strong day. The XAU lost 1 3/8, while GDX shed 1/2. Volume was light. The gold shares have had some strength lately but now are short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK but physically I'm still under the weather. The market continues to frustrate both the bulls and the bears. Over the weekend it appeared that the bottom was ready to fall out on the employment report. The S&P 500 futures had sold off over 20 points. But then Monday morning came around and the market finished the day to the upside. Today we saw follow through progress early in the day to only have it all vanish in the final hour. That certainly isn't bullish. So we'll have to see what happens for the rest of the week. The summation index did turn back to the upside yesterday. I think that the upside in the gold shares might be over. ABX was the correct choice because it certainly out performed the gold share indices. I'll be looking to get some calls there again when gold begins to drop. I'm considering going out to October and there is no hurry to purchase. I'll be trying to get some rest tonight and we'll follow things as they happen tomorrow.
Monday, April 06, 2015
Thursday, April 02, 2015
A wait and see type of day as the Dow gained 65 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. Todays market action should move the summation index to the upside but it is really locked in a sideways channel. We'll get the job numbers tomorrow and then wait all weekend to get the reaction. The McClellan oscillator is forecasting a decent move in the averages. Which way is the question. My SPY April calls are still in the red. GE was up a dime and the volume was light. It is looking more and more as if I will hold these things until the earnings report at the close of expiration week. Needless to say I should have sold them for a loss long ago. Gold was off $7 on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar. The employment report should get these two trading vehicles moving too. The XAU was off about a buck and GDX shed 1/4. Volume was lighter. I still like ABX for my gold share trading at this time. But I do not have any trades in mind for gold right now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. So we will have to see which way things are going to go here. The action in TRAN today was negative and if it continues to break down the averages will follow. But until we open on Monday, it's all a guess. There's an extra day to think about it all as well. So we'll wait and see. My SPY April call trade will hang in the balance. There isn't anything else to report. We'll check the charts over the weekend and watch for news post the employment numbers. It's a long holiday weekend. Perhaps it's time to forget about the market for a couple of days.
Wednesday, April 01, 2015
Another sell off to begin the month as the Dow fell 78 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive though. The Dow was off over 175 early and spent the rest of the day trying to come back. I canceled my stop loss order overnight as I feel that the market is going to turn back up here. The technical work that I do is pointing towards that. It doesn't mean that it will happen but the odds favor that it does. The summation index is heading sideways here. But make no mistake. The S&P 500 needs to hold the 2050 level or things will go lower in a hurry. GE was up a few cents as it came off of its lows as well. GE needs to get going to the upside or the GE April call trade could be a total loss. Gold found buyers to start the month as the futures gained $25 out of the blue. The US dollar was lower but not enough to generate a move like that in gold. The XAU rose 3 3/8, while GDX was up a point. Volume surged to the upside and that is bullish. ABX was up over a buck on huge volume. That is almost 10% in one day for this issue. Needless to say I would have made a lot more money if I would have held onto the ABX April call trade. This stock is showing the best relative strength now. I'm looking at the May and the October calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I will say that my read on the markets have been off lately. I expected a slow week due to the holiday and it has been anything but that. So I don't know what tomorrow will bring. The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices are still oversold. Tomorrow should be a waiting game for Fridays employment report. But anything can happen. I'd expect some follow through for gold here, so we'll see what happens. My tactics on the recent ABX April call trade were wrong as well. A profitable trade it was but much was left on the table. I suppose I could have bought them back yesterday but I was looking out further in time. Hindsight is never wrong. We'll see how things close out for the week tomorrow.