Tuesday, July 31, 2012
A waiting game today as the Dow fell 64 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The economic data was a little better than expected but it doesn't matter in this environment. It's all about the Fed. I doubt that they will announce any changes tomorrow but I could be wrong. It's possible that we get no new news from the Fed and the ECB. The stock indices probably won't like that but who knows? There's always Fridays employment report to move things. So we'll see. GE was flat on the day and the volume was light. Gold dropped almost $10 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well. The XAU fell almost 3 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses today on light volume. My ABX October calls remain mired in the red. No news from the Fed and the ECB won't be bullish for gold. The technicals for the gold shares here are mid-range. A case could be made for either direction. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. We ended the month on a down note for the stock indices. I still think that we are digesting the gains from late last week. Not completely short term overbought on the stock indexes just yet. The gold shares look like they could be rolling over here once again. Tomorrows action will tell the story there. I still plan on holding the ABX calls for a while though. Beginning of August tomorrow and we'll see if we get some of the usual positive money flows. We'll keep an eye on things overnight and take it from there.
Monday, July 30, 2012
Today we returned to the summer Monday role in the marketplace as the Dow fell 2 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. Simply digesting the recent gains today in my opinion. It's a waiting game now on the Fed and the ECB. Wednesday and Thursday should provide some news or lack thereof to move the stock indices. End of the month tomorrow. Plus the employment report on Friday. Plenty of reasons to spike volatility this week. My guess is that when it is all said and done, we'll be higher than when the week started. GE was off 1/8 on average volume. I might still try the August calls here but not completely sold on that idea. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures in lackluster trading. The US dollar was a bit higher today. The XAU rose 2 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up fractionally on light volume. One day doesn't make a trend but the gold shares finally outpaced the price of gold for a change. My October ABX calls are still in the red. I'll be hanging on to them for a while. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Plenty of economic data in the days to come along with lots of news from the worlds Central Banks. Boring it won't be. I'd be a buyer of weakness for the stock indexes but my ideas haven't been panning out lately. I think we'll be on hold until the Wednesday Fed announcement. We'll see if anything comes out of Europe tonight as the headline risk is still upon us.
Friday, July 27, 2012
A powerful follow through to yesterdays action as the Dow closed above 13000 for the first time in 3 months. The Dow gained 187 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. This should move the summation index back to the upside. I was wrong once again thinking that the earlier this week break of the up trend line in the S&P 500 would lead to further weakness. Of course I didn't know the European Central Bank would announce that it's ready to flood the markets with money but my idea was wrong anyway. We've broken through the resistance for the S&P 500 on good volume and should move higher from here to attack the 1420 level. We don't need to know why there is a rally, we just need to recognize that fact and try to profit from it. GE was up 1/3 on heavy volume. Breaking out to the upside here as well. I'm considering the August 21 calls if they get cheaper. I do not like to chase moves and the short term technicals are overbought now. Gold gained a couple of bucks on the futures and a bit more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was weaker yet again today. I still don't think that gold has moved as much as it should with such extensive weakness in the US dollar this week. The XAU was up around 1 3/4. ABX fell 1/3, GG was up 1/8 and NEM dropped 1 1/2 on poor earnings. Volume was heavy in ABX and NEM. I sold my August ABX calls for almost a 100% loss. Even with 3 weeks to go the calls were too far out of the money to ever show a profit. It's better to put that trade behind me and move on. I'll continue to hold the ABX October calls and they are in the red. The major gold producers and the gold shares in general have not kept pace with the gains in the precious metal. That usually isn't a bullish sign. The October calls have about 3 months to go. The weekly technicals for the gold shares are oversold but that doesn't mean that they can't remain there. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indices are in rally mode. GDP came in as expected. Weakness can be bought in my opinion. The summer has been anything but quiet once again. It's possible that the XAU and some of the gold shares are putting in a double bottom here on the weekly charts. Time will tell on that. I just booked another big losing trade and there is nothing good to be said about that. The lost money and mental capital has to be forgotten about in a hurry because the markets won't wait. The markets don't care. I'll have to regroup over the weekend and be ready for Monday morning. We've got plenty of economic data out next week and the Fed announcement on Wednesday. But for now it's a Friday summer afternoon and time for a rest.
Thursday, July 26, 2012
The market exploded to the upside on news out of Europe. The Dow gained 211 points on good volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. The headline risk was positive this time around. The European Central Bank basically said it would print as much money as it takes to save the euro. The US dollar tanked and that propelled the stock indices higher. Perhaps this time we'll make it through the resistance at around 1370 on the S&P 500. We'll have to see what happens after tomorrows GDP report. GE was up 1/2 on good volume. It looks like GE wants to continue higher here. That will be a plus for the overall market if it happens. Gold was higher by $7 on the futures which really wasn't much considering that the US dollar got pummeled today. The gold shares lagged as well with some exceptions. The XAU gained 2 7/8. ABX fell about a buck, GG rose 2 and NEM gained 1/4. The ABX earnings and guidance completely disappointed the market. ABX was down 2 3/4 at one point. It made a strong comeback but not enough to save any of my calls. I'll probably dump the August calls tomorrow for a substantial loss. It's possible that I can break even on the October calls if we get some type of rally in the gold shares in the next month or so. GG is clearly the leader in relative strength here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indexes had a nice day but was it simply a one day wonder? Perhaps this was simply a snap back rally but it didn't feel like it. Tomorrow will tell a lot even if it is a summer Friday. If the market continues to rally on a weak GDP number, then we should continue to move higher in the days to come. If we drop back tomorrow the picture will be less clear. Gold should have moved a lot more today considering the weakness in the US dollar. Gold itself is short term overbought now as well. ABX dropped to a new low today and there is no hope for my August calls now. It is times like these that as a trader you just have to persevere. My trading has been terrible all year. It seems that nothing I'm doing is working out. But you have to keep going. There are still plenty of trading opportunities out there. We'll see what transpires tomorrow.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
We broke the losing streak for the Dow today with a gain of 58 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. It was an up and down type of day in the stock indices. A mixed market as both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were lower on the session. Short term oversold now for the market and a bounce is to be expected. With the summation index heading lower, I would expect any rally attempt to be short lived. I could be wrong. GE was flat on the day and volume was lighter. GE has had pretty good relative strength lately. That is a plus for the bullish case going forward if GE is a proxy for the overall market here. Gold had a strong day on the weaker US dollar. The yellow metal rose $30 on the futures. The XAU was up only 4 points as the gold shares continue to disappoint. ABX rose 2/3, GG up 1 1/8 and NEM gained 1 1/2. Volume was slightly above average, which is a positive. NEM was the leader and that is usually a positive as well. My October ABX calls are slightly in the black but the ABX August calls I own are losers and will remain so barring a miracle. Earnings are out tomorrow for ABX and that should be a mover one way or the other for this stock. We'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The S&P 500 is trying to hold on at the 50 day moving average on the daily chart. I'm guessing that the GDP report out on Friday could be a market mover but it will be summer Friday. So the all the usual participants may not be around. Gold had a strong day for a change. My thinking here is that if the GDP report is weak on Friday then gold will continue to rally on expected easing down the road from the Fed. That's a guess as usual. We didn't hear anything out of Europe today but that could change at any minute. Headline risk remains. We'll see how ABX reacts to the earnings report and take it from there.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
The Dow once again made a last hour comeback but it wasn't enough to prevent the 3rd triple digit down day in a row. The Dow fell 104 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. We were off 200 at one point intraday. The summation index is now moving to the downside. We've broken the up trend line in the S&P 500 that has been in effect since the beginning of June. We could snap back to that line but the trend has changed. Not oversold yet on the daily technicals for the stock indices but we are working or way down there. GE was off 1/8 on average volume and has held up rather well here. Perhaps what we will get for the overall market is more sideways action instead of a huge decline. That's a guess as usual. No trades in GE for me at the moment. Gold bounced around today but finished the day little changed on the futures. The US dollar was stronger today. The XAU was down 3/8. ABX fell 1/2 on good volume, while GG and NEM were little changed on light volume. My ABX calls for August and October are losers as ABX cannot find any support whatsoever. At this rate the earnings out on Thursday won't make a difference. The gold shares are still under performers with relation to the price of gold. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired again, did not sleep well. The stock indexes have been roiled by Europe once again. The 50 day moving averages are getting close to breaking down through the 200 day moving averages on a daily basis. That is not a positive sign. Puts are probably the way to go or simply head to the sidelines. The relationship between the price of gold and the gold shares has hit an extreme in my opinion. One of two things will happen. Either the price of gold will have to fall quite a bit or the gold shares will have to rally. We'll see what happens. I'm holding losing trades for ABX and the earnings are due out before the bell on Thursday. The August calls I have are probably dead. We'll keep an eye on Europe overnight and take it from there.
Monday, July 23, 2012
Not a typical summer Monday as the Dow was rocked early by the problems in Europe once again. We were down over 200 but made a comeback to finish the day with a loss of 101 points. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative and the volume was average. It certainly could have been a lot worse and the fact that we came back leads me to believe that we are not on the verge of some major market meltdown. But anything can happen I suppose. Europe was off the radar for a while, now it's back. It will go away again and then come back. This situation is like a broken record and it will not be solved anytime soon. It makes the trading tougher than it already is. GE was up 1/4 and the volume was good. This is another reason why the decline probably doesn't have legs in my opinion. GE is at times a proxy for the overall market. We'll see how this plays out. No trades here for me now. Gold was off $5 on the futures but was lower early on as well. The US dollar had some strength today on the flight to safety. The XAU could not follow once again as it lost 4 points. ABX off a buck, GG fell 3/4 and NEM lost 2/3. Volume was light. I canceled the open order that I had for the October ABX calls before the market opened. I then replaced that order with a lower price when ABX opened lower. That order was filled. I still hold the August ABX calls as well that I should be getting rid of after the earnings report out on Thursday. That trade will be a loser. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough. So now all eyes will be back on Europe and whatever news comes out of there. The headline risk returns to the marketplace. Once again, that can cause things to go either way. I do not have any OEX trades in mind for now. I'm trying the ABX calls again and they haven't worked for me yet this year. Plenty of time on this trade as it goes out for 3 months. We'll see what happens. There's a potential positive RSI divergence on the daily chart and the Gold/XAU ratio is off the charts to the buy side. That ratio hasn't worked well as of late but that won't be the case forever. We'll watch things overseas tonight and go from there.
Friday, July 20, 2012
A downside bias to expiration day as the Dow fell 120 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Some negative noise from Spain today. We closed the week below the important 1370 level on the S&P 500. Perhaps we'll make another run at a breakout next week. GE was all over the map today on the earnings report. It opened lower, was up 1/2 and then sold off to be little changed. Volume was heavy. I'm not exactly sure which way it goes from here. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures today despite a stronger US dollar. The XAU fell 3/8. ABX, GG and NEM were mixed with fractional moves on light volume. I'm leaving the October ABX call order open and I'm waiting to sell the August ABX calls at a loss. Earnings for ABX are due on Thursday. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indices tried to break out this week and so far have failed. Some had gaps to the downside and that isn't a positive going forward. However none of the up trend lines in place since June have been violated. Gold had a pretty good performance today considering the strength in the US dollar. Perhaps the flight to safety trade is going to make a comeback. I'd like to own the October ABX calls before the earnings are announced. We'll see. I've already lost a lot of money so far this year trading the gold shares from the long side. We are approaching the historical positive months of August and September for gold. I'll have to ponder this trade over the weekend. For now it's a Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a break.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
An expiration drift higher today. The Dow gained 34 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The economic data out today was weaker than expected. No matter, there are no sellers at the moment. We've gotten above the key 1370 area in the S&P 500. It certainly hasn't been a robust move higher yet though. Interesting that we haven't heard anything about Europe lately as if that problem is suddenly solved. The market goes where it wants. GE was off fractionally on light volume. We'll see if tomorrows earnings report can get this issue moving. Gold was up $10 today as the US dollar was just a bit weaker. The CRB index has moved higher lately. The XAU was up 1 3/4. ABX and NEM rose 1/2, while GG gained 3/4. Volume was light. I did place an overnight order for the October ABX calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving the order open. My August ABX calls remain solid losers. I'll wait for the earnings next week and probably take the loss there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock index action of late seems a bit slow and lethargic. I guess it's perhaps finally a summer of doldrums. Not the best trading environment. We've got option expiration tomorrow and then I don't see any real catalysts for the market until the 2nd quarter GDP report. So I'll sit and wait. It's all you can do really.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Continuing higher as the Dow gained 103 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. Another day like today and we will break through the resistance on the S&P 500. Todays economic data was better than expected. It looks like the gains in the indices will continue. GE was up 1/8 on light volume. Earnings Friday. Gold was down $18 on the futures as the US dollar was flat on the day. The XAU fell 1 3/4. ABX and NEM were both off around 1/3, while GG fell 1 1/8. Volume was light. My ABX August calls are just about dead. I'm considering moving out to the October calls here. I may place an overnight order for them. Mentally I'm feeling tired. Todays post is abbreviated due to other commitments that I had today. Back at full strength tomorrow.
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
Moving higher per expiration week as the Dow gained 78 points on what passes for average volume these days. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The market opened higher, moved lower when Bernanke started talking and then resumed its climb back to the upside. The economic data today was about in line with expectations. Summation index still moving to the upside. Resistance on the S&P 500 comes in at 1370. A decisive break above that level would send the stock indexes much higher in my opinion. I'm not sure if that will be the case. The down trend line at 1370 has been in effect since the beginning of April. GE was up 1/8 on average volume. Still oversold on the daily technicals there. We'll look to the earnings on Friday as a catalyst one way or the other. Gold was moving around to the downside today. The precious metal lost a few bucks in the regular session and then fell more in the aftermarket. The US dollar was lower today as well. The XAU was off 1 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all off fractionally on light volume. I'm still holding the ABX August calls and will be until the earnings out next week. They continue solidly in the red. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. Looking to see if we can break the longer term resistance on the stock indices and that will be the key for the near term. The S&P 500 will easily go to 1400 if we can break through 1370 in my analysis. Hasn't happened yet. Gold remains range bound as it has been for weeks on end. Not sure what will get the metal moving. More Bernanke tomorrow along with the days economic data.
Monday, July 16, 2012
Just another mundane Monday in the summer as the Dow fell about 50 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. No upside follow through to Fridays fireworks. I still think we'll head higher from here with expiration week as the back drop. We've got a couple days of Bernanke blabbering to Congress to get through. The daily stock index technicals are mid-range so I suppose you could make a case for either direction from here. Plenty of earnings to contend with along with a modest amount of economic data. GE was off 1/8 on light volume. Still holding the 50 day moving average on the daily charts. Earnings on Friday. I doubt I'll be attempting a trade for GE this week. Gold was little changed on the day as the US dollar was lower. The XAU fell 5/8. ABX was flat while GG and NEM had fractional losses. Volume was light. My ABX August calls continue to be losers. I'm resigned to waiting on the earnings report next week. Might be too late by then. This trade is in the cut the loss stage at this point. The technicals are oversold though so we'll see what happens. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indices continue to remain above their rising trend lines on a daily basis that began in the beginning of June. As long as that holds the trend is higher in my opinion. Gold has been moving sideways and the gold shares have lagged. That usually isn't a bullish scenario going forward. Yet I still own the August ABX calls at a loss. Less than 5 weeks to go on this trade now. Perhaps the earnings will help me cut the loss. Not a good trading strategy there. We'll wait to see what Bernanke has to say tomorrow.
Friday, July 13, 2012
We finally got the rally I was expecting as the Dow gained 203 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. We never got any weakness early as it was off to the races from the start. I didn't get any OEX calls and that is another missed opportunity. I expected some up side like this over 2 to 3 sessions, not all in one day. The excuse is that the bank earnings were better than expected. Didn't matter. The stock indexes were overdue for some technical upside. We'll probably continue higher for the short term. GE was up 1/3 and the volume was light. We're bouncing off of the 50 day moving average here. Earnings in a week. The July 20 calls here perhaps? Probably not. Gold rallied on a weaker US dollar as the precious metal futures rose $26. The XAU did not follow as it only gained 2 1/3. The under performance of the gold shares here is glaring and does not bode well for future upside. ABX up 1/4, GG gained 7/8 and NEM added 3/4. Volume was light. My ABX calls are losers and ABX is under performing here as well. The earnings are out in a week and a half so I suppose I will wait for that event. Mentally I'm feeling discouraged of course for being stuck in a losing trade while winning ideas go by the wayside. It's part of the game. As always the mental capital wasted in losing efforts is the most important component. My trading this year has not been good. It has been exceptionally poor. I'll need to rectify this going forward. The stock indices have room to the upside here. Expiration week should help move things forward along with the oversold condition technically. The easy profits have been made though in my opinion. Gold continues to move in a sideways channel with the gold shares simply continuing lower. There is nothing on the horizon to change this pattern. I will be looking out to the October ABX calls on more downside. I'll check the charts over the weekend and go from there. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
Thursday, July 12, 2012
The malaise continues as the Dow fell 31 points on what passes now for average volume. The advance/declines were negative. I didn't get any OEX calls today but I am still interested in that trade near term. The timing has got to be good for this idea to work. I will consider buying them tomorrow and dumping them on Monday or Tuesday. The short term technicals are oversold. No real news today of any consequence and we were off over 100 points early on. I'm still expecting at least a short covering rally soon. GE was down 1/4 on average volume. We've reached the 50 day moving average on the daily charts. Oversold short term here as well. Earnings out in a week. No trades for me here. Gold was lower again today on the stronger US dollar. The gold futures closed down $10, were down over $20 at one point of the session and made a comeback in the after hours market. The XAU fell 2/3 but was much lower than that intraday. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses after all being lower by over a buck early. ABX and NEM have potential doji morning stars on their daily candlestick charts. My ABX August calls are firmly in the red. That trade is now in a cut the loss, take the loss mode. My next attempt here will probably be the October calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. If we get some weakness in the morning for the stock indexes I'll probably try the July OEX calls. I've been looking at this trade for a couple of days and the longer there isn't any upside the more likely it is for some to occur. In theory anyway. The market could just keep heading down as well. But I don't think that is going to happen. The ABX trade is yet another loser, it's just a matter of how much. I still might wait until the earnings report though. Not much else for a Thursday afternoon in the summer. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
5 days in a row to the downside as the Dow fell 48 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive though. The market didn't like the Fed minutes but did stage a last hour comeback to cut the loss more than in half. I'm pretty sure that the OEX July calls are the way to go here for a short term trade. The daily technicals on the stock indices are at the same level where they bounced before. The only drawback here is the apathy from the players. There really isn't any interest from the buy side but we could at least see a short covering rally. That's a guess as usual. If we get some weakness again tomorrow, I might try those OEX calls. GE was up a touch today on light volume. The short term technicals are oversold here as well as we approach the 50 day moving average. No trades for me here though. Gold took a slight hit on the Fed and the slightly higher US dollar. The precious metal futures were off around $5. The XAU continues to under perform, losing 2 2/3. ABX dropped 2/3, GG fell 3 1/2 and NEM shed 3/8. Volume was above average for the gold shares and extremely heavy in GG. GG announced a shortfall in production for the year and got clobbered. My ABX calls remain in the red and could be on the way to the graveyard of failed trades. There is a chance that we are putting in a double bottom for ABX on both the daily and weekly charts but it will depend on where we close for the week. That will be the only chance for this ABX August call trade to be profitable. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. I'd like to perhaps try the OEX July calls here but I am still stuck in the ABX trade. I don't know if I'd like to put on more risk. I'll see what happens tomorrow morning and go from there. There really isn't a catalyst out there for higher prices that I see but the market will go where it wants to. We've had plenty of bad news lately and the stock indexes have held up rather well. Plus we have expiration week coming up which usually has a positive bias. So we'll see. I'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
A downer Tuesday as the Dow fell 83 points on better than lately volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We made a last half hour comeback in the indices or it would have been worse. No apparent reason for the decline but there are no buyers and there is no interest. I think the market is falling on its own weight. If I am to attempt the OEX July call trade the time is now. We are back to the up trend line at the 615 area. I'm sure if I wasn't involved in the current ABX trade that I would try the OEX. GE fell 3/8 and the volume was good. I suppose the July GE calls are out of the question now. It appears that we had a false breakout on the weekly GE chart. We have now fallen back below the previous resistance. If this continues for GE that would not bode well for the overall market. Gold fell today as well, the futures were off about $10 and another $10 in the aftermarket. The US dollar was higher. The XAU fell 5 1/8. ABX off a buck, GG down 7/8 and NEM lost 1 1/3. Volume was weak here again. There is no buying interest. My ABX August calls are now solidly in the red. I'll need to see some kind of upside before the end of the week here or this will be yet another losing trade. The short term technicals are oversold for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'll have to think long and hard about getting the OEX July calls tonight. Perhaps the Fed minutes will be an upside catalyst for the stock indexes tomorrow. That's a guess as usual. The short term technicals for the stock indices are mid-range. Todays bearish action appeared out of nowhere really. I guess maybe there won't be any summer doldrums again this year either. The dollar is breaking out to new highs for the year and that won't be bullish for gold. We are short term overbought in the US dollar though. We'll keep an eye on things tonight and see what happens tomorrow.
Monday, July 09, 2012
A lackluster start to the trading week as the Dow fell 36 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. Monday back from a long holiday week and the summer doldrums are here. For a day at least. No news of any importance and Europe was quiet today. We are trying to bounce off of the 50 day moving average in the Dow. I may try the OEX calls later in the week. GE didn't do much today and the volume was light. No trades there for now and the earnings are due on the last trading day of the July option cycle. The gold futures were up $10 as the US dollar fell today. The XAU dropped a point and change though as the gold shares are lagging the price of the metal itself. That isn't a bullish sign for those issues. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional losses on light volume. My August ABX calls are in the red now. However I still plan on holding them for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. There is trend line support for the OEX at the 615 level. If we work our way back to that, I will probably try the July 620 calls. That is the next idea on my radar screen. I'd like to hang on the the August ABX calls until the earnings come out later this month. But the markets will go where they want to. I don't expect much out of this week. Not much economic data due. The Fed minutes will be out on Wednesday. Earnings reports begin tonight. We'll see if there are any surprises.
Friday, July 06, 2012
The employment report came and went as the Dow fell 124 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The jobs number was a bit weaker than expected. The result could have been worse but we came back in the last hour and a half. Hard to say what will happen on Monday as the volume has been light all week. I'm still going to be a believer in higher prices before the July option expiration. Summation index still to the upside and the market has the feel of wanting to go higher. GE fell 1/3 and the volume was good. Not sure about the calls here as we broke through the longer term resistance only to fall right back below it. I thought that the breakout was valid bit I guess not. I'll check the charts again over the weekend. Gold had a poor showing today as the US dollar rose despite the weak jobs report. The precious metal fell $30 on the futures on the stronger dollar. The XAU dropped 4 1/2. ABX off 1 1/4, GG dropped a buck and NEM lost 1 1/8. Volume was light. My August ABX calls are now barely in the black. Could be now that this trade is not going to work out. I'll have to ponder this over the weekend. The short term technicals have rolled over and the weeklies have too. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well. I'm not exactly sure what will happen next to the stock indexes but the trend is still up for now. I may be looking at a July OEX call trade. Gold looks a lot worse than it did at the close of last week. I will have to do the work over the weekend and try and come up with a game plan for the ABX trade next week. I'm inclined to hold onto it for now. Perhaps we'll get all the summer players back next week. Right now, it's time for a break.
Thursday, July 05, 2012
A bit of weakness before the jobs report as the Dow fell 47 points on very light volume. The advance/declines were negative. In a holding pattern for the stock indices until tomorrow. Still short term overbought here. The summation index continues higher. I don't think that the summer rally has ended, even if we do move lower tomorrow. The markets appear to be in holiday mode. GE was off 1/8 on that very light volume. I might still try the July calls before the earnings announcement but not completely sold on that idea. Gold fell today as the US dollar posted a strong session. The gold futures were off over $10, which wasn't too bad considering the strength in the dollar. The XAU dropped 1 2/3. ABX down 5/8, GG lost 3/8 and NEM fell 2/3. Volume was average for ABX, light otherwise. My ABX August calls lost some ground but are still showing a profit. The technicals for ABX are mid-range on a daily basis. My plan here is to hold onto the calls for a while, probably into the earnings report at the end of the month. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The employment report and the market reaction to it will be the key for the near term. Perhaps the strength in the US dollar today was a clue that the numbers won't be so bad tomorrow. That's a guess as usual. There also are not as many players as usual due to the mid-week holiday. That can skew things as well. We'll see what happens in the morning and go from there.
Tuesday, July 03, 2012
Continuing higher and that is the plan as the Dow gained 72 points on extremely holiday light volume. The US markets closed early today. The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive. An overseas bank scandal did nothing to stop the rise in the stock indices today. A market that shrugs off bad news is one that is going higher. The S&P 500 is at its resistance line on the daily charts. The smaller stocks have already broken through their resistance and the S&P 500 should follow. GE was off a touch on extremely light volume. Not exactly sure why GE isn't joining in the party here. Still overbought on the daily technicals here but that doesn't mean that we can't go higher. I may look at the July calls once again. Gold had a good day, up over $20 on the futures. The US dollar was just a bit weaker. The XAU rose 5 7/8. ABX and NEM climbed 1 1/4, while GG was up 1 7/8. Volume was very light. My ABX August calls are in the black. The daily technicals are mid-range, so there is still room to the upside in my opinion. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well. The stock indexes are in full summer rally mode. We'll see how far we can go. There's always the risk of some headline out of Europe but as we've seen recently that can go either way. Friday is the next event in my mind but the market may ignore that as well. Gold has found a bid here and I certainly don't know why. We were short term oversold though. We'll watch events overseas if there are any, take tomorrow off and be back on Thursday.
Monday, July 02, 2012
Pretty much just a drift today as the Dow fell 8 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The overall market was much stronger than the Dow. The summation index continues higher. The economic news today for the US was soft but the market wants to go higher here. Summer rally mode continues. We should move higher into the employment report on Friday. It's a vacation week with the July 4th holiday right in the middle. I would not expect a lot of volatility or volume. GE fell 1/3 on average volume. Still overbought here on the daily technicals. We did have a vaid breakout on Friday though. I'm not sure if I'm going to try the July calls here. Gold was off around $5 on the futures as the US dollar bounced today. The XAU was up 1/8. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional moves to the downside on very light volume. My ABX calls are still in the black. At his point I plan on holding the calls until the earnings report at the end of this month. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The stock indices are in a waiting game until Fridays employment report. Throw in a holiday in the middle of the week and very light volume. So I really don't expect much in the way of market moves for now. I do think that we'll drift higher for the time being. Gold should be quiet as well as the market players are on holiday. I'll simply watch and wait for the numbers on Friday.