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Thursday, July 26, 2012

The market exploded to the upside on news out of Europe.  The Dow gained 211 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The headline risk was positive this time around.  The European Central Bank basically said it would print as much money as it takes to save the euro.  The US dollar tanked and that propelled the stock indices higher.  Perhaps this time we'll make it through the resistance at around 1370 on the S&P 500.  We'll have to see what happens after tomorrows GDP report.  GE was up 1/2 on good volume.  It looks like GE wants to continue higher here.  That will be a plus for the overall market if it happens.  Gold was higher by $7 on the futures which really wasn't much considering that the US dollar got pummeled today.  The gold shares lagged as well with some exceptions.  The XAU gained 2 7/8.  ABX fell about a buck, GG rose 2 and NEM gained 1/4.  The ABX earnings and guidance completely disappointed the market.  ABX was down 2 3/4 at one point.  It made a strong comeback but not enough to save any of my calls.  I'll probably dump the August calls tomorrow for a substantial loss.  It's possible that I can break even on the October calls if we get some type of rally in the gold shares in the next month or so.  GG is clearly the leader in relative strength here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock indexes had a nice day but was it simply a one day wonder?  Perhaps this was simply a snap back rally but it didn't feel like it.  Tomorrow will tell a lot even if it is a summer Friday.  If the market continues to rally on a weak GDP number, then we should continue to move higher in the days to come.  If we drop back tomorrow the picture will be less clear.  Gold should have moved a lot more today considering the weakness in the US dollar.  Gold itself is short term overbought now as well.  ABX dropped to a new low today and there is no hope for my August calls now.  It is times like these that as a trader you just have to persevere.  My trading has been terrible all year.  It seems that nothing I'm doing is working out.  But you have to keep going.  There are still plenty of trading opportunities out there.  We'll see what transpires tomorrow.    

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