Tuesday, July 10, 2012
A downer Tuesday as the Dow fell 83 points on better than lately volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We made a last half hour comeback in the indices or it would have been worse. No apparent reason for the decline but there are no buyers and there is no interest. I think the market is falling on its own weight. If I am to attempt the OEX July call trade the time is now. We are back to the up trend line at the 615 area. I'm sure if I wasn't involved in the current ABX trade that I would try the OEX. GE fell 3/8 and the volume was good. I suppose the July GE calls are out of the question now. It appears that we had a false breakout on the weekly GE chart. We have now fallen back below the previous resistance. If this continues for GE that would not bode well for the overall market. Gold fell today as well, the futures were off about $10 and another $10 in the aftermarket. The US dollar was higher. The XAU fell 5 1/8. ABX off a buck, GG down 7/8 and NEM lost 1 1/3. Volume was weak here again. There is no buying interest. My ABX August calls are now solidly in the red. I'll need to see some kind of upside before the end of the week here or this will be yet another losing trade. The short term technicals are oversold for the gold shares. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'll have to think long and hard about getting the OEX July calls tonight. Perhaps the Fed minutes will be an upside catalyst for the stock indexes tomorrow. That's a guess as usual. The short term technicals for the stock indices are mid-range. Todays bearish action appeared out of nowhere really. I guess maybe there won't be any summer doldrums again this year either. The dollar is breaking out to new highs for the year and that won't be bullish for gold. We are short term overbought in the US dollar though. We'll keep an eye on things tonight and see what happens tomorrow.