Friday, November 30, 2007
We continue higher with the Dow up another 60 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. I am surprised as I expected some type of sideways or down action. Perhaps the market is stronger then I realize. Or maybe it was end of the month buying. We will be overbought with another up day on Monday, if that occurs. The NASDAQ was lower today. Perhaps the big caps will be the leaders this time around. I don't know. Gold was lower again today by $13. The XAU lost 1 3/4. Both ABX and NEM were down on good volume. The dollar is trying to stabilize here, even with talk of lower interest rates in the US. So the big run-up in gold is taking a breather for now. GE ended up a touch on heavy volume. It moved around a lot and closed well off its highs. I'm not looking for any big moves up for GE until perhaps the second week of December. The Fed meeting should provide some type of movement. That's my guess at this point. I suppose I'll be holding on to the calls for a while. Mentally I feel OK, got a good nights sleep. My scenario for the OEX calls remains the same. Buy on weakness. We should see some downside next week. That would work off the overbought condition and bring some fear back into the picture. So we'll see. For now it's again time for a break as the weekend arrives. As always I'll be checking the charts and going from there...
Thursday, November 29, 2007
The Dow added 22 points today on lighter volume. Advance/declines were negative. As I said previously I would not expect anymore big upside from here. Sideways to down would be my expectation until we digest the recent gains. Gold lost another $5 today as the US dollar attempts to stabilize. The XAU lost over a point. ABX and NEM were both down on light volume. No trades there for now. GE lost 40 cents on average volume. I'd expect GE to move sideways here as well for a while. The call options are still in the black. There is a chance that I'm going to sell these and try and buy them back cheaper later on. However I'm not completely sold on that strategy. Mentally I did not get a good nights sleep and was a bit sluggish. However with so much time still left on Decembers options, there is no sense of urgency at the moment. End of the month tomorrow so we could get a return of volatility. However for now the game plan remains the same. Look to buy OEX calls on a return to the down trend line that was just broken. The summation index is trying to turn to the upside as it just stopped going down yesterday. There is no hurry to get the calls but that is the way that I'm leaning at the moment.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Finally some follow through as the Dow gained over 330 points. Volume was good and the advance/declines were 6 to 1 positive. Huge rallies out of nowhere. I would not expect that to continue. However I do believe the worst is over for now. Today should turn the summation index to the upside. I don't think we will just go straight up from here. We have broken the daily down trend line on good volume. The next expectation would be a return towards that line. When that happens you can get some OEX calls. I will be looking to do that. Gold lost over $13 today. However the XAU rose 5 points in sympathy with the overall market move. ABX and NEM were both up, about a buck and a buck and a half respectively. Volume was OK, nothing special. I suppose that if I expect the market to rally here perhaps gold will go with it. But I'm not sold on that idea yet. Again, I'm not sure about gold here so I'm sitting it out for now. GE was up a buck on heavy volume and that is a good sign for the bullish cause. However we haven't broken the down trend line here as of yet. I would expect GE to pull back with the overall market in the days ahead. Mentally I feel fine, got a good nights sleep. There is still plenty of time on Decembers options. There isn't a rush to do anything at this point. I would expect sideways to down action for the next few days. Then perhaps another push to the upside. But that's a guess. The market will go where it wants.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
The Dow gained 215 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. I think we are trying to form a bottom here. We really need some follow through to the upside and that just hasn't happened all month. So tomorrow will be important again. We haven't had 2 days in a row to the upside all month. That is incredible considering the time of the year. The money flows are supposed to be positive. So does it mean that the market is in really big trouble going forward? Stay tuned. Gold lost over $12 but the XAU only dropped 1/2 a point as the gold shares took their cues from the overall market. NEM and ABX both came back from their earlier lows of the day. I don't have a clear picture for gold at the moment. However it is obvious that we are not in the straight up bull phase of the previous 3 months. I will check the charts again. GE gained over 60 cents on average volume. My options are back in the black. We'll see how the week closes out. My thinking is that I'll be holding these for a while but you never know. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep good. It is a strange time in the markets I believe. When a major US bank has to go begging to the Middle East for money, something weird is happening. That's what occurred today for Citigroup. So you have to wonder, what is coming in the future? Time will tell. Whatever the problems are, they will not be solved overnight. There is a sell the rallies sentiment on the street these days. That needs to be overcome before we see some solid gains. When this will occur is anybodies guess but it hasn't happened yet.
Monday, November 26, 2007
Another day in the markets, another sell-off. The Dow lost 237 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. You begin to wonder if it will ever end. And it will, eventually. Oversold and staying there which has been the tune for quite some time now. Summation index is still pointing down. Fridays rally was not to be believed and today confirms that. And on it goes. Gold was up a touch today but the XAU lost over 6 1/2 points. ABX and NEM both lost over a dollar on less volume then we've seen lately. I'm not sure what to do there so I'm staying out. The dollar continues lower. My thought is to short the gold shares but I'm not going to do it just yet. I'm thinking the Fed will not move interest rates lower at the next meeting but if the sock market decline continues unabated they might not have much choice. GE lost almost a buck on average volume. The calls I purchased are under water. How long will I hold them? It really depends on the weekly close. If we close below the weekly up trend line then I will have to exit. This trade was based on that line holding. So we'll see. Mentally I'm a bit tired again. Did not sleep all that well and was woke up early by the phone. The market decline isn't sitting well with me either. There are things going on that are not readily visible. Something is happening under the surface that I can't put a finger on. The market is not acting as it usually would, given the circumstances. But there is nothing that I can do about that. I can only observe and take action based upon what I see. Perhaps we are in the beginning of another bear market. I don't know. Time will tell. There is nothing wrong with staying on the sidelines until things sort themselves out. Preservation of capital isn't a bad thing.
Friday, November 23, 2007
We got the traditional post Thanksgiving day rally. The Dow was up 181 points on very light volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. Never trust light volume rallies. My thought is that nobody is believing today is the start of something big to the upside. All the players will be back next week and we'll take it from there. Gold rose over $20 and the XAU tacked on 7 points. NEM and ABX were both up over a buck but again, the volume was holiday light. The dollar fell overseas again. Perhaps that is all the decline that we will get in gold. I'm not sure so I'm on the sidelines for now. GE was up about 50 cents, volume light. I think we need time to build a base here. I already own the calls so it's a waiting game. If we do get a decent pop in the stock, I just might sell and hope to buy back again later. But that's a guess going forward. Mentally I feel OK. It's time for a break and that's what I'm doing. A nice long weekend and back at it on Monday. I will be checking the charts though this weekend. Perhaps some opportunity will be found...
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Did I say yesterday that I was leaning towards the bullish side? Shows what I know. The down trend continues with the Dow losing 211 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative. Oversold and staying there. At this rate it doesn't look like the August lows will hold for the major averages. The Russell 2000 index has already broken through. Have we started a new bear market. I don't know. Time will tell on that. Gold gained around $7 but the XAU lost 2 3/4, following the overall market. ABX and NEM each lost about 1/2 on average volume. No trades there for now as I am not sure which way to go there. I was leaning towards the puts but we are already oversold. I still might get some before the Fed meeting next month but that is a long way away at this point. GE lost 90 cents on heavy volume. Who knew we would get to $37 so fast? I bought some calls there. We are at the weekly up trend line. If we break down here then all bets are off as this is the logical spot to hold. If GE doesn't hold up here it would be ominous for the overall market as well. Do I expect GE to rally here? Maybe but I at least expect it to hold up or move sideways. We'll see. Mentally I'm OK, did not sleep all that well. I'm looking forward to the long weekend that starts now. Friday will most likely be a lightly traded day and it ends 2 hours early. The market is really acting horrible here. Rallies are a thing of the past it seems. However we can't stay oversold forever, can we?
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
The Dow made an impressive comeback in the last hour to finish up 51 points on extremely heavy volume. Advance/declines look like they are slightly negative though. The volatility is strange for a holiday week. It is usually pretty quiet. There is something going on but I don't know what. Technically we are due for a bounce and I mean more then just todays action. We are still oversold. Gold had a stellar day up $13 and is rallying in the after-market. The XAU rose 7 1/2 points. ABX and NEM were both up big on heavy volume. So is that it for the gold correction? I did think that we were in the process of unwinding the gold trade. If that's the case there is a lot more downside there to go. So perhaps we are just snapping back to the broken up trend line. I'm still thinking about some puts when we get there. I'll have to check the charts. GE lost a bit on average volume. It came back in the last hour along with the overall market. I am looking to the calls there but I'm trying to wait until it reaches $37. We'll see. Mentally, I got a decent nights sleep. I'm trying to figure out what is going on here. It looks like perhaps we will hold the August lows. The market is trying to. If it doesn't we will be going much lower. Considering we are very oversold and heading into a favorable positive money flow period, I am now leaning towards the bullish case here. But I could be wrong. At times we are acting as though it is a bear market. I think we are at a point of inflection that will make the case one way or the other from here. Stay tuned...
Monday, November 19, 2007
The downtrend continues with the Dow off 218 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. How much longer? Hard to say. There's really no support for the OEX until around 620 where the next weekly up trend line is. But it's possible that we could hold in around here where the low from August is. Summation index still pointing down but we are oversold ans I would expect a bounce soon. You remember that 300+ point up day last week? In bear markets, rallies spring from nowhere but they don't hold. That's what just happened. Gold lost around $9 and the XAU dropped over 8 points. The long gold trade is unwinding. ABX was down over 2 bucks on heavy volume and NEM fell around a buck as well. ABX led the gold shares higher and it is leading them lower. There is talk that the US dollar is stabilizing. We'll see. GE lost 40 cents on average volume. It actually held up pretty well considering. If it gets to $37 I'll think about getting some calls. That's the target for now. If it doesn't hold there then the market is in for much bigger trouble then I expect. Mentally I feel fine. Got a good nights sleep and just went for a pretty good hike. My mind feels clear at the moment. There is an extra week on the December option cycle so there is no hurry to do anything without a pretty good signal. The options are full of time premium. I think we''ll see a bounce sometime this week, after that we'll have to see what happens...
Friday, November 16, 2007
The Dow closed up 66 points on expiration heavy volume. Advance/declines were negative. It was a back and forth day. The market is trying to hold on here. It might, we are oversold. But it also might not. Next week should be slow and light with the Thanksgiving holiday. I think that I will let next week pass and go from there. We'll see. Gold lost a buck but the XAU gained over 2 points. ABX and NEM were both up on good volume. I'd still like to get short the gold shares if they rebound here. But I could be wrong. GE was up a third on good volume. I'm waiting for GE to get to the weekly up trend line and it is about a point away. If and when we get there it will be time for me to own some calls. Mentally I'm doing OK but physically I'm not feeling too good. I'll rest over the weekend and should be fine. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend and taking it from there. The summation index is still pointing down and I don't want to fight that. With the market having a gain today and the declines leading the advances, it doesn't look like the downward pressure for stocks is about to end. We also have broken the weekly up trend line and if we don't hold around here the support is much lower. So I'd be cautious here and I am. But for now it's the weekend and time for a break.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
The Dow dropped another 120 points today on still heavy volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The inflation number was a bit higher then expected. The market held up early and then fell off the remainder of the day. We could not build off of the 300+ point up day on Tuesday. It's not a good sign. The summation index is still pointing down. I suppose we will try and hold Mondays lows at 670 on the OEX. I'm thinking that we will hold for now but that is a guess. Gold got rocked to the downside, off $27. ABX and NEM both lost over 2 bucks on heavy volume. The XAU lost 8 1/2. I will be looking to short any snap back rally that we get there. I'm a longer term believer in the gold shares but they got way overdone to the upside here. I think the dollar will have to stop falling here as well. It is and has been oversold for quite a long time. GE lost 70 cents on average volume. I'm in no rush to get long there just yet. We may have another buck or so to the downside to go there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I was able to keep myself out of trouble so far this week. I'm getting a better feel for what is going on here although the credit problems are something that I don't know exactly what is happening. But it looks like neither does anyone else. Anything can happen on expiration Friday, so on the sidelines I'll stay. Next week should be holiday slow so there is no reason to start any new trades unless a very valid signal appears. We'll go from there...
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Well, we tried to stay up today but it didn't work. The Dow rallied early, held its gains for most of the day and then fell in the final hour to end down 83 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was heavy again. I had an order in for some OEX puts early but wasn't filled. Tomorrow will be very important. If we close substantially lower, then I think it will signal weaker markets to come down the road. You need to build on 300+ point up days. Today was a one day reversal to the downside. The inflation data was weaker then I expected so I was wrong there. We'll see about tomorrows data. Gold rose $15 today but the XAU managed only a 2 point gain. ABX and NEM were both up about a 1/4 on light volume. The next trade for me at this point will probably be some gold share puts. GE also opened much higher and closed with a loss on average volume. I am going to try and wait for things to settle out there. Mentally I'm OK, got a relatively good nights rest. It is hard to stay out of the market but with 2 days left in this option cycle it is the prudent thing to do. As much as I think that tomorrow will be a down day there really isn't a clear signal. That toughest battle is always within oneself. Discipline is such a hard thing to do sometimes. It follows the overall theme of how tough it is to succeed in this game. But you've gotta keep on going. There will be other trades with good set-ups in the future...
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
There was a huge rally on Wall Street today as the Dow gained 320 points. Advance/declines were over 4 to 1 positive and the volume was heavy. We are right at the daily down trend lines for some indices. This is the area that I would like to get short at but after todays action, I'm not so sure. Yes, there was short-covering going on and it is expiration week. Tomorrow will tell a lot. There should be some follow through. Is this decline over? It could be but we will only know in time. Gold lost $8 today but the XAU followed the market and was up over 4 points. ABX and NEM were both up on average volume. So was it just a one-day washout in the gold shares? I don't think so. I believe that there will be more downside to come there near term. Within the next month or so. I could be wrong. GE gained almost a buck on better then average volume. I think we broke the daily down trend line there and that could bode well for the market overall. Perhaps the decline in GE is over as well. Mentally I'm feeling OK, got a good nights sleep. It looks as though yesterday at the close was the time to purchase some calls. It is always easy to look back though. Going forward is what matters now. I do think there will be higher then expected inflation readings in the next 2 days. What the market does in reaction to those numbers will tell you where we are headed. I'm still of the belief that getting some OEX puts this week will work but you cannot deny the strength of todays rally. So it won't be easy from here. Also with only 3 days left for this month the risk is higher then it usually is. We'll see what happens on the open tomorrow...
Monday, November 12, 2007
Well the market tried to come back. We were up over 100 points but it didn't matter and the Dow closed down 55 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative as the overall market was much weaker. Volume was heavy and it was a partial holiday. The market is again in trouble as it was in August. When we are oversold and can't rally, it starts to collapse. I was hoping for a couple of days of rally to get some puts but it doesn't look like that will happen. It is a downside waterfall. Gold got whacked today, down $27. The XAU lost over 14 points. ABX lost over $3 and NEM over $4 on heavy volume. So the run in gold is over for now. We broke the uptrend lines. The next expectation would be to snap back towards the up trend lines that were broken. On that snap back there will be a chance to get short the gold shares. That's my guess at this point. GE lost around 20 cents on average volume. The longer term calls are finally getting cheaper but it isn't the time just yet. Not in a market like this. Mentally I am tired as I did not sleep well. We took out the recent lows at the close and that isn't a good sign. Normally I would be looking to buy any weakness tomorrow. But these aren't normal times at the moment. I do expect some type of decent rally attempt at some point this week because we are that oversold. I don't expect it to hold though. Something bigger is going on here but I certainly don't know what that is. If I'm up for it I will possibly make a trade this week. If not, there is nothing wrong and no money lost by waiting it out...
Friday, November 09, 2007
Well the expected rally never materialized as the Dow fell another 223 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We had an upside reversal yesterday on extremely heavy volume. If we can't rally off of that then we are in trouble. It seems like a rerun of August as the market continues to decline. Once again there is something going on that can't be explained technically. When an oversold market doesn't rally then we are in collapse mode. I fortunately did not but any calls because the market did not act the way it should of this morning. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU fell 2 3/4. NEM hung in there and didn't drop much but ABX lost 3/4. Yes I'd like to short the gold shares but we should get some type of bounce next week and the timing has to be practically perfect. And that is the main problem with any type of trade at the moment. There are 5 days left before expiration. The volatility keeps the options pricey. But the time decay factor will be enhanced as we move forward next week. Options will continue to lose value at a rapid rate if the market does not move in the intended direction. It isn't going to be easy. GE lost 3/4 on average volume. What can I say, the trend is down. We are nearing the weekly up trend line and that will be the key. Will it hold? Doesn't look like it today but next week is a different story. Mentally I slept OK but markets like this take a toll. I've said it before but preservation of capital is important in times such as these. The market isn't acting normally and that has to be taken into consideration. That said there will be money to be made next week. But I probably will not attempt any trades unless the set-up is pretty clear. I still would like to get short before the inflation data but if we don't get a rally of some type before then I will stay on the sidelines. Longer term if the GE options look cheap I will step in. But it's a dangerous market at the moment. Charts will be checked over the weekend. For now it's time for a break...
Thursday, November 08, 2007
It was another wild one on Wall Street as we ended down 33 points on some of the heaviest volume in a while. Advance/declines were slightly negative. We were down over 200 at one point and rallied back in the final hour, even getting positive for a few minutes. We are right at the 200 day moving average for the S&P and it held for now. I would expect some type of rally from here after todays action. There is also a chance that this is going to be the low for a while but time will tell on that. Gold was up $4 today and the XAU almost gained a point. But gold too was all over the place as volatility cranked up. Both ABX and NEM were barely unchanged on heavy volume but they were all over the place during the trading day. I did want to get some ABX puts but did not put in the overnight order. The markets are moving fast right now so the trading is compressed. You've got to take your profits quickly. GE lost a little ground on heavy volume. It too came all the way back from being down much lower. If and when it forms a bottom I will be getting the calls there. Boeing was lower and I was lucky to get out yesterday. Mentally I'm feeling OK, got a good nights sleep. Option expiration next week with some inflation data. I think we'll bounce tomorrow after todays comeback. We should. However what happens after that will be the key. We need to hold todays lows going forward. I still would like to get short ahead of the inflation data but everything is subject to change. I thought that maybe gold was done here today but it came back. Trade data tomorrow and it should be positive for the US. I would think that the dollar would rally but it hasn't regardless of the data lately. So we'll see. Once again there is nothing wrong with preserving capital for later on. There is also nothing gained by sitting on the sidelines. The dilemmas never end...
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
Another one of those 300+ point down days as the Dow lost 360 points. Advance/declines were 10 to 1 negative. I'm sure the volume was heavy but I'll get the numbers here when they come in. We broke 1490 on the S&P 500 and that is negative for sure. Summation index pointing down and accelerating. Probably more to come. We are getting close to the 200 day moving average and will have to hold there or it could get ugly. Gold gained another $10 but the XAU followed the market and was off over 4 1/2 points. ABX and NEM both had one day reversals to the downside on heavy volume. Is it time for the gold shares to take a rest? Who knows? Boeing held up pretty good again considering. It ended down around a half but was up most of the day. I dumped the calls for a small loss. Once we broke support on the S&P 500 there was no reason for me to hold onto this trade any longer. It never worked out the way I had thought and the price movement of the options was confusing to me at least. Can BA rally over the next 7 days? Perhaps but if the market comes back this issue hasn't come back with it yet. GE lost over a buck on good volume. I've still got the long term view that GE will see better days and will be looking to buy some longer term calls soon here. We will let the market sort itself out and take it from there. Mentally I did not sleep well but am feeling OK considering. I'm thinking of getting some gold puts again but I might just wait this out. Preservation of capital isn't a bad thing. It is getting to feel like it did in August, when the market just kept going down for no apparent reason. Yes the volume today was pretty good again but it doesn't look like a blow-off. So there should be more downside to come.
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
We got the expected bounce today with the Dow gaining 117 points. Advance/declines were lagging all day but seem to have come in almost 2 to 1 positive. The volume isn't updated as yet. The market doesn't seem as strong as todays numbers might suggest. But you can't argue with the price movement. Boeing lost around a quarter today and that is bothersome. The market up over 100 and this stock just can't get into gear. It's been that way since I entered this trade. But it was something different and I have now learned to not trade it. If it doesn't perk up here tomorrow it will probably be time to say goodbye. Yes, it's frustrating but it's also part of the game. Gold continues parabolic, up another $12 today. We should break the all time high any day now. The gold shares are moving straight up with the XAU gaining 6 1/2 points. ABX and NEM both higher on good volume as the dollar hits fresh new lows. How long can this go on? Who knows? I should have jumped aboard this train long ago but I'm not about to now. Perhaps it will run up into the November expiration and then take a breather. That area continues to attract money and you can't deny that. GE was another stock that didn't rally with the Dow today as it was unchanged on average volume. You would like to see GE in tune with the markets move and that makes the rally suspect at this point. But tomorrows another day. Mentally I'm feeling OK, got a good nights sleep. We got the expected up move and where we go from here is what matters now. I'm still looking to get short before the inflation reports next week as of now. I will dump the Boeing trade this week hopefully and go from there. It is possible that this is the beginning of a new uptrend also. So there is a lot to play out in the days ahead. The volume was heavy today as it has been lately. There isn't a lot of data to go of this week either. Trade report on Friday. We'll see what tomorrow brings...
Monday, November 05, 2007
The Dow was lower by 51 points today. Volume was heavy again and the advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative. We were down well over 100 at one point, made it back to positive territory and fell back again. The summation index is pointing down but the McClellan oscillator is getting oversold. I'm guessing we could bounce here. The line in the sand is 1490 for the S&P 500. It held again today but if it fails we will be heading lower. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU fell a point. ABX and NEM were both up on good volume. I would love to get some puts here but I've been saying that for weeks. At some point the run in gold will falter. Boeing was all over the place and ended up around a quarter. The trouble here is that it never rallies with the market and the options are running out of time. I should dump the options this week regardless. Again, the option price movement is beyond me, it isn't close to conventional even for options. GE lost a little ground on light volume. I still like the longer term calls here but am not looking to purchase them just yet. Mentally I'm doing OK. Less then 2 weeks now for November options and next Monday is a bank holiday. My thinking is that the inflation numbers will be strong next week so I would like to be short for that. Until then, who knows? We have gotten some dramatic 300+ point down drafts with the last few weeks which keeps everyone on edge. But I believe we will hold up here for now. The market had a chance to sell off in the last hour and it came all the way back instead. That usually isn't the type of action you see when the market wants to go down. So we'll see.
Friday, November 02, 2007
The Dow made a comeback today, up 27 points. I'll get to the volume and A/D's a bit later as there is a delay in the numbers again. We were down over 100 at one point so it's a one day reversal to the upside. Can it last? So far it seems like a rerun of the last 300+ down day followed by a small rally. Perhaps we will build a short term bottom again. The employment number came out better then expected but the results weren't what I thought. Gold soared even with job strength and was up over $14 to climb above $800. The dollar lost even more ground. These themes just seem to go on and on. The XAU was up over 6 1/2. NEM gained over 2 and ABX was over 3 points higher. Both had heavy volume. It is getting to be like a broken record but the money continues to flow into the gold shares. I'm not looking at the puts there anymore and will buy calls on any light volume pullback. This is something I should have done long ago. These issues remain overbought and stay there. 2 weeks left on this option cycle. GE was unchanged on average volume. It mirrored the overall market as it was lower most of the day. No trades there at the moment. BA was up over a buck but the options barely moved. I still cannot figure out the option movement with this stock. It doesn't make any sense. There doesn't seem to be any connection with the underlying issue. Boeing also seems to do better when the market goes down and then doesn't participate in the rallies. The weekly still looks good though with 2 weeks to go but I am getting impatient. Perhaps it's time to dump them and put my attention elsewhere. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well last night. I do think that whatever bottom we form here will be a good one and that you can look forward to higher prices in the weeks ahead. That's my guess at this point. The summation index continues to point to the downside so there could be some more volatility in the near future. As always, keep capital preservation in mind. The advance/declines were slightly negative and the volume was heavy. Time for a breather over the weekend. A check of the charts and then back at it Monday morning...
Thursday, November 01, 2007
We got clobbered today as the Dow lost 362 points. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 negative. The summation index is rolling over but it has been back and forth all week. Tomorrow will be interesting with the employment number. I'm not sure of what to make of things here as it seems to be sub-prime related again. So we'll see. I had an overnight order for ABX puts but wasn't filled. Gold was down a bit today but the XAU lost 7 points. ABX was off over 1 1/5 and NEM lost more then 1 1/4. My theory is the employment report will be stronger then expected, the dollar will rally and gold will fall. That's a guess. Boeing lost $2 and I suppose in hindsight I should have dumped the calls and tried to buy them back cheaper. But who knows? The options don't seem to move much with the underlying one way or the other. Live and learn. GE lost 90 cents on average volume. I am pressed for time today and would like to continue the blog but.... The volume numbers don't look right again and I will post them here in a few minutes. OK, the volume was heavy. We had a day like this a couple of weeks ago and the market was able to hold up. Will it this time? That is the question. I will say this, when this decline is over it will set up for a rally that should last into the beginning of next year. That is my thinking at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK but am now having questions about this decline. I did not expect a day like this. Tomorrow will tell a lot about what is going on.