Thursday, January 31, 2008
Another wild day of gyrations as the Dow gapped down 180 points at the open and ended the day up 207 points at the close. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Todays action negates the one day reversal from yesterday. There was no follow through to the downside as had been expected. Summation index still pointing higher and the trend is up. It looks like there will be no retest of the lows. It's a little late to jump on board but if we do get more than one day of weakness, I'd look to get long something. Employment report tomorrow. Gold was up a couple bucks but the XAU lost 3 points. ABX and NEM both lost more than 1 1/4 on average volume. HL was down. Interesting to see the gold shares not participating in todays rally. Is it a sign of things to come? Stay tuned. I certainly don't know the answer to that. GE was up about 40 cents on heavy volume. Still no trades there. INTC up a half on good volume. I don't want to chase these issues here. If we get a pullback, then it's worth a shot. If not the sidelines are where to stay for now in my opinion. Mentally I'm feeling OK. No clear signals, short term, for now. Longer term the trend is up. Weakness can be bought. Sometimes the hardest thing to do is remain patient. It isn't an easy game and usually profits are not just going to be handed out. You've got to work for them. On to the employment report. I have no guess as to where that will come out but I don't think it will show a lot of new hiring in this type of market enviornment. We'll see.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Now that was a one day reversal. The Dow rallied almost 200 points after the Fed cut rates again only to fall back and end the day down 37 points. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was good. It was the opposite of last week when we got a positive one day reversal move. We'll see if this one follows through to the downside. GDP was weaker then expected. My thought on todays action was that all the good news from the Fed is over for now. What more can the Fed do at this point? It's lowered rates over a point in about a week. I think that's why we fell like a rock. Gold lost a few bucks and the XAU was up a couple points after the Fed. ABX was unchanged while NEM gained a buck. The volume wasn't as strong as it has been. HL didn't do much. I'm still thinking about the calls there before the earnings. INTC was up a touch on better volume. If we pull back I might try the calls there as well. GE was up 1/4 but was much higher earlier. No trades there. Mentally I slept well and am feeling fine. My thinking is that we now might get the retest of the lows set last week. That could set things up for the calls going into expiration. Or the lows won't hold and we're going lower. It's all a guess at this point. We could move higher tomorrow, negating todays action. So the market is in its usual state of flux. Employment report on Friday should be the next big mover. I'll be keeping an eye on things and looking for the next good opportunity.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
We tacked on another 96 points today on the Dow. Volume was good and the advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Waiting on the Fed tomorrow. A rate cut is expected, it's just a matter of how much. Should provide some fireworks one way or the other. I'm waiting to get long something if there is a pull back. May not get one. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU was down a point. ABX and NEM were both down on lighter then lately volume. HL didn't do much on light volume. I'm staying on the sidelines there. Still looking at INTC if we get some weakness. GE didn't do much today either. It seems as though some issues are in a waiting game for the Fed tomorrow. GDP report also early in the morning. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. I'm going to be patient here hopefully. I don't have any great signals at the moment. I am going to try and not force the issue. Sometimes that's not the easiest thing to do. I'm pretty sure the decline has ended at this point but I could be wrong. I would like to see a test of the lows, ideally. But again, that may not happen and I'll have to go from there. The summation index is pointing to higher prices and I don't really want to fight that. So we'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there. We are right at the short term down trend line for the OEX and have broken that line to the upside in the Dow. Perhaps that is a clue.
Monday, January 28, 2008
It was a good day for the bulls as the Dow gained 176 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 positive. Even weakness in the foreign markets couldn't keep the Dow down. Lots of data this week with GDP, the Fed and the employment report. The summation index should be heading up again with todays action. Look to get long on weakness. Gold hit another record high today, up over $16. How long can it go on? Longer then I think probably. ABX and NEM were both up over a buck on good volume. The dollar was weaker once again. HL didn't do much. I would have expected something better then that with gold up so much. The XAU rose 3 points. Sure I'd love to have some gold share calls but it could be too late to try anything there. Or not. That is a dilemma. GE up about 3/4 but the volume was lighter then we've seen recently. Still you've got to like the direction there. INTC was up only 20 cents and the volume was light. I still might try some thing there but that sector has been lagging lately. Mentally I'm feeling good. Back to the normal schedule here and that will help. Plenty of time left in the February cycle but I must say the option premiums are still pretty high with all the recent volatility. That is an issue. I'm still thinking the way to go is long here, there is a lot of bearishness. But who knows? I've been wrong before. I'm going to look for a retest of the lows. If that occurs, I'll get long. If it doesn't happen I suppose I'll have to wait until we get back to the major down trend line, which is pretty far off. We are just about back to the short term down trend line for the OEX at about 635. What happens there could be the key for the rest of the week.
Friday, January 25, 2008
It was a day that started at the highs and closed at the lows. The Dow lost 171 points on good volume. Advance/declines were negative. Profit taking before the weekend? That's my guess. I will be looking at things to get long here. I think we will chop around and form a bottom. That doesn't mean I will rush in and buy something. But I'll be looking for an oversold condition and take my chances then. Gold was up another 5 bucks but the XAU closed off a third. ABX was up over 1 1/2 on good volume though. It remains a leader. NEM and HL were both up slightly. I may try some HL February calls but I need to check things out over the weekend. I think we are overbought but that doesn't mean we can't stay that way. GE lost a half on good volume. It hasn't acted that good since the initial surge off the lows. Probably won't go there. I'm keeping an eye on INTC and perhaps will try the calls there. It lost 3/4 on heavy volume today. Again , I'll have to check things out over the weekend. Mentally I'm tired from the seminar this week. I need to get back to the normal schedule and that happens next week. There is a lot to catch up on this weekend and I'll go from there.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
2 positive days in a row for the Dow as we ended up 108 points. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive and the volume was very heavy. A correction for yesterdays volume. It was the heaviest that I have ever seen. My original volume figures were wrong. That means we had a one day reversal to the upside on heavy volume yesterday. The trend is now up, not down. We may go down and test the low but my guess is that we will trend higher from here. The summation index should turn around to the upside here as well. That doesn't mean we can't go lower at some point later this year. I'm saying that for now, the lows should hold in the near future. I will look to get long if we get some weakness. Gold was up over $20 today. Well there was a buy signal as I have stated in the past few days. They don't always work but this one did. The XAU soared over 10 points today. ABX and NEM were both up good on heavy volume. ABX seems to be taking the lead here as its relative strength is better than NEM again. HL gained over 50 cents. Perhaps I will try a trade here but the ideal time has passed for now. GE was up a bit on good volume. It rose in the last half hour after being negative for a good part of the trading day. May try something here but I'm leaning against it at the moment. Mentally I'm a bit frustrated not being able to follow the markets as closely as I usually do. That doesn't mean I would have made a bunch of trades that were profitable this week or losers. It just means I wasn't at the table to even have a chance. I'll be back in a normal mode on Monday and go from there. It's all I can do. I can't let a seminar week affect more than it already has. On to Friday.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Well it was another wild day on Wall Street. We did finally get the bounce though. The Dow closed up 299 points on what looks like light volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We were down over 300 points midday. It was that kind of day. The market rose over 100 points in the last half hour. I would have liked to see more volume today but we'll go from here. But where? We are still medium term oversold. I'm not ready to say the decline is over but it could be. There were some opportunities today. More later. Gold lost around $8 while the XAU lost over 5 points. The gold shares were a lot lower but came back with the overall market. ABX lost 1 1/4 and NEM dropped over 2 1/2. Both had very heavy volume. Volatility in the gold shares here also. There's still a buy signal there though. GE was one of the opportunities today as it sold off when the market was down and came back pretty good to finish up over a half on extremely heavy volume. The FEB 35 calls doubled. Another was INTC which I took a look at last night. It moved almost 10% in one day from the low to the high for today. That is unheard of. The FEB 20 calls quadrupled. In one day. I did not have the proper focus to take advantage of these trades. And who knows I may not have had the courage. As I stated yesterday, I'm in a seminar for most of the day. It was planned long before the action of this week which could not be known in advance. So I tread lightly. I did not leave in any orders today. I'll check the charts tonight and decide what to do from there. Success in the markets requires that you pay attention. If you cannot put forth the proper effort, I think it is better to step aside until you can. You gotta make the commitment. Mentally I'm a bit tired as my schedule isn't what it normally is. On to the charts...
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
The Fed to the rescue. Worldwide markets had plunged on Monday while the US was closed. The Dow was down over 450 points in the first half hour and that was after the Fed cut rates 3/4. The Fed action was enough to stop the wholesale selling and the Dow lost 128 points on the day. The volume was huge. It had to be to hold things up here. Advance/declines were negative. We are still oversold and I think a better bounce will come. Perhaps tomorrow or the next day. These are unprecedented times, that's for sure. And who knows? Today had the action of a blow-off bottom to it. Time will tell. On to gold. It was down over $20 at the open and closed up $9. I had an order in for ABX calls that wasn't filled. Money came back into gold as the dollar fell on the rate cut from the Fed. ABX was up over 2 3/4 on very heavy volume. NEM only managed a 1/4 point gain on heavy volume. HL was down a 1/4 on good volume and made a comeback from its lows. There remains a buy signal for gold here. I'll have to re-check the charts tonight but they will be sure to show some type of reversal. I had an order in for some GE calls and that wasn't filled either. GE was off about 20 cents on extremely heavy volume. I might actually try a trade here with GE since it is so blown out to the downside both short and medium term. We'll see. Mentally I'm pretty much spent. I am in a seminar this week and not in my usual routine. I'm tired form the early hours and hassles of traffic. I am able to place orders in the morning but my focus on the markets is limited. I am taking this into consideration when placing my trades. As always I am trying not to do anything stupid. My thinking is that we will see a nice up day this week. However the volatility has increased the premium in the option prices. That has to be taken into consideration. I will check the charts tonight and go from there. There is nothing wrong with letting things play themselves out here. Preservation of capital is a theme to remember. However, there is opportunity at the moment also. You don't make any money sitting on your hands. This is the dilemma at the moment.
Friday, January 18, 2008
Option expiration Friday before a long weekend. We were up 180, down 130 and ended the day off 60 points. It was that kind of day. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was extremely heavy again. The summation index has broken to the downside. Longer term up trend lines have been broken. Whatever is going on might take a lot longer than people think to work itself out. It's a great market to be short. Still oversold and due for a bounce. Gold was up a buck and the XAU rose almost 2 points. ABX and NEM were about unchanged on heavy volume. The options were just too expensive for me. I am getting a buy signal there though. Perhaps I'll give it a try next week. However the weekly charts are bearish after this weeks action. I'm also looking at HL at the moment. Earnings are due during the February option cycle. I will need to check the charts for these over the weekend. GE had good earnings and was up over a buck on very heavy volume. Perhaps this bodes well for the market going forward. But that's a guess. This is a very bearish market at the moment. That is fact. Mentally I feel OK. Slept well. Ongoing mental debate about getting long the gold shares here. I really would like to go out to March on these but the prices will be high. We'll see. It's tough to step up to the plate in times like these but it has to be done for profits. The problem is the ongoing uncertainty and its effects on market players including myself. But enough of that for now. It's the weekend and time for a break. I'll check the charts and take it from there.
Thursday, January 17, 2008
It seems as if we are in crash mode. It doesn't exactly feel like it but you can't argue with price. The Dow lost 307 points. I will have to confirm the volume because it looks like the heaviest that I've ever seen. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 negative. Oversold and staying there is always dangerous. The summation index should now be heading down without hesitation. I have support on the OEX at 620 and we are only 5 points away from that. Hopefully that holds up tomorrow or else I don't know where we're going. Gold lost a couple bucks but the XAU fell another 5 1/2. I am actually getting a buy signal again here for the gold shares. NEM and ABX were both down on heavy volume. The options are very pricey for February but the signal is there. Perhaps I'll pick something up tomorrow. It's tough in a market like this. But we'll see. GE lost 1 1/3 on double the normal volume. No need to wait for the earnings tomorrow, it's already fallen apart. It's that kind of market. Mentally, I got a good nights sleep and feel fine. The weakness that we are seeing doesn't bode well for the rest of the year. There will be rallies from time to time but you have to admit that the trend is down. What is means for the economy as a whole, I don't know. But it can't be good if we are dropping everyday like a rock. The market is as oversold as I have ever seen it and still continues to fall. I won't pretend to say that I know what will happen next because what normally works here isn't. I'll just hold tight for now and maybe pick up some gold shares tomorrow.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
It's rock and roll on Wall Street as we're down, up and down. The Dow was all over the map today and closed off 35 points. Advance/declines were about even and the volume was extremely heavy. Considering the bad news in the tech sector, it could have been a lot worse. But it is a volatile environment. Trading can be very good or very bad in a hurry. I'm doing my best to sit it out this week but I'm always battling myself. Did want to get OEX calls at one point, watched them double and then end the day lower then the purchase price. That's the kind of thing that's going on at the moment. Gold dropped $20 and the XAU lost 9 1/2 points. It almost looked like another buy signal would occur. ABX lost almost $3 and NEM dropped over $2, both on heavy volume. I would like to get the March calls on those eventually to get the earnings report movement. The timing might be tough though. The dollar was stronger today and it looks like a double bottom could be in place there. Patience for now. GE lost a 1/4 on heavy volume. It was up over a half at one point. Friday will be interesting there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Also wondering when the markets will settle down into a more normal pattern. We are still oversold and have stayed there for quite some time. I'm getting trin readings that are off the charts. I would expect a pretty good snap back rally at some point. But that's a guess with the way things are going at the moment. Preservation of capital is not overrated.
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
The Dow got clobbered again today, off 277 points. Advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy. Blame it on weak retail sales, Citigroup, inflation or whatever you want. The summation index will now be pointing back down as we move back and forth on that indicator. We are oversold and staying there as we have been for weeks. That's never a good thing for the bullish cause. We closed at the low today also. It's interesting but trading this kind of market can be treacherous. I'll do my best not to attempt anything this week but there are no promises. Gold opened higher and closed lower for a one day reversal. The XAU lost over 6 1/2 points. The volume was very heavy on both ABX and NEM. NEM closed about unchanged while ABX lost a buck. They piled into the gold shares and now the question is are they about to pile out? Don't know. The Fed move is already in the market in my opinion. I think perhaps trading the earnings for the gold shares could be next. We'll see. GE was lower on heavy volume. No trades there but it's beginning to look like the downside is the way to go. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected. My thinking is that we are beginning a time in the markets that might be hard to make money on the upside. It is one of the weakest beginnings of the trading year that I can remember. The summation index is moving sideways yet prices continue to fall. I see support at the moment at 620 on the OEX and we aren't near that yet. It isn't a time to be calling any bottoms in the market. That's my guess. After the bell, Intel reported poor earnings and so tomorrows open should be ugly. We'll go from there.
Monday, January 14, 2008
The Dow gained 172 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. There were some good comments from IBM, which helped the tech sector. Plus it's option expiration week. But that could all change tomorrow with the inflation data. However the summation index should be turning up again and perhaps this time with some conviction. So we'll see. We're still oversold on a medium term basis. Gold continues higher, up another 5 bucks and closing above $900. The dollar was weaker today. The XAU gained over 3 1/2 points. ABX had heavy volume but only managed to rise 15 cents. NEM had a good day, up 1 1/2 on heavy volume. The last time these 2 issues diverged like that the uptrend just continued on. We'll see what happens this time. Money continues to flow into the gold shares regardless. GE gained a 1/4 on lighter than average volume. Earnings on Friday. It will be a market mover, the direction is what's in question. Mentally I feel OK, got a good nights sleep. Not sure I'll attempt a trade this week but you never know. Perhaps in gold or some OEX puts towards the end of the week. Obviously the NEM calls could have been held for a longer time. But you have to make the decisions as you move along. It wasn't going to be something that I felt comfortable holding for a while at the time. Where we go from here is what matters now. Long weekend approaching also and that could play into the mix. So we'll see the early data and go from there.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 246 points. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. Where we go from here is the question, with no easy answer. Option expiration week coming up. The summation index is moving sideways and that doesn't help matters. The downside bias does remain though. I don't think I'll be buying OEX calls next week but you never know. There are not any clear signals at the moment. Gold is the place to be, up another 4 bucks and touched $900 today. I would expect some profit taking here but it hasn't happened yet. The XAU gained 3/4. ABX was up good, by over 1 1/2 on heavy volume. NEM managed 3/4 on heavy volume too. I might try the NEM calls next week again but we are very overbought on the gold shares. However the last nice move in gold presented the same scenario with the overbought condition lasting for weeks. We'll see. It's the only trade on the horizon at the moment. GE was down 3/4 on good volume. Earnings in a week. I'll try my best to stay away from it. Mentally I feel fine, got a good nights sleep. I'll take the weekend for a little rest and checking of the charts. Inflation data out next week and that should be a market mover. Volatility remains so the option premiums are still very high. However by the middle of the week the premium will start to get sucked out rather quickly and the option prices will deteriorate. That's indeed something to take into consideration for any trades next week. Otherwise, it's the weekend and time for a break.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Big Ben flapped his gums today as the Dow gained 117 points. The volume was very heavy again. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We opened down 100 and were up around 180 at one point. So the volatility continues and I don't expect it to go away anytime soon. The Fed said it's ready to cut rates again. I dumped the OEX calls for a gain of over 40%. Plenty of slippage on the fill as these markets are treacherous at times. But you've got to keep moving on. The calls could perhaps work again before expiration. I was early getting in on this trade and was lucky to get out. Gold was up over $11 and nears $900. The XAU gained over 2 1/2. ABX was down a half and NEM was up a point, both on heavy volume. You would think with gold up nicely all the gold shares would rally but that wasn't the case. My guess is profits were taken in ABX to be put to work elsewhere but that's just a guess. The volume in the NEM calls I'm looking at was extremely high, don't know what that means. GE was up about a dime on average volume. I think GE has to get going to the upside for any rally to have legs. Mentally I'm a bit tired, not enough sleep again. The short term trading requires a lot of commitment. You have to be up for the game and that's just to have a chance. I do prefer the longer time frame trades when they are available. However you also need to take advantage of opportunity. We have gotten the expected bounce that was long overdue. Where we go from here is any ones guess. We are probably going to have to test the recent low. What happens there will be the key for further out. 6 days before expiration. I might try the gold shares again or I might sit it out. Checking the charts tonight will be key and we'll go from there.
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Well we got a bounce on extremely heavy volume. The Dow rose 146 points. Advance/declines were positive. Is this the start of something big to the upside? I doubt it. We are still below the daily down trend line. Getting through that would be constructive to the bullish cause. I still have the OEX calls but probably should have dumped them for a small loss today. I will be looking for some follow through to the upside tomorrow morning. If we get it, I'm out. I'm out anyway unless we break through the down trend line and that isn't going to happen. The timing going in was wrong and that's the story of that trade. Gold didn't do much today but the XAU gained a point and a half. ABX and NEM were both up on good volume but the moves weren't anything like they have been. I almost bought the NEM calls back again but NEM isn't acting as well as ABX as I've said before. I really think that I need to go out to next month on those, so we'll see. The dollar was up a touch today and appears to be perhaps putting in a bottom here. It isn't going straight down anymore. However I do want to own some gold shares ahead of the Fed later this month. GE managed a 30 cent gain on good volume. The $35 calls perhaps? I'll do my best to stay away from that issue. Mentally I feel OK. Would have liked to get a bit more sleep. The question now is, is that all there is to the bounce? Could be. The market isn't acting the way it usually does. I suppose it is letting you know that things are not going to be normal here for a while. It makes things tougher to trade. Time for the moves is compressed and you have to be ready for that. On to tomorrow.
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
The market is in crazy mode. It's the only way that I can describe it. My hope is that we don't crash tomorrow. The Dow lost 238 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. We are so oversold that I just cannot believe there hasn't been some type of bounce. That is what worries me. However the signal is there for calls so I bought some OEX calls. I had an open order in and it got filled. It has already lost 30% of its value. I'll have to sell it tomorrow probably, one way or the other. Summation index pointing down. We have broken through support. We'll see what happens Wednesday. Gold was up $18 today and the XAU rose 6 points. ABX and NEM were both up on heavy volume. But they came well off their highs. The relative strength of ABX was apparent as NEM sold off much more. I had to dump the NEM calls that I got yesterday to lock in a profit of 40%. There is a good chance that I will buy them back cheaper later this week, perhaps tomorrow. The money continues to flow into gold. However I could not wait around and hold these options forever. Not in a market like this. I'm probably better off with ABX anyway. GE lost 3/4 on average volume. Broken support there as well. Mentally I did not sleep well and feel a bit tired. Markets like the one we are in now offer opportunities. But they are also very challenging. You have to be up for the battle. I really expect a very fast, short covering rally here now. I don't expect it to last but I think it's tradeable. If we don't see that then we are really going to be in trouble. And we are in trouble already. There is nothing wrong with staying on the sidelines during times of duress. Preservation of capital isn't a bad thing. You can always wait for the markets to come back to some type of normalcy. However at the moment the markets are letting us know that these are not normal times. We'll see what tomorrow brings...
Monday, January 07, 2008
We had an up day for a change. The Dow gained 27 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive. The market has to bounce here. What it does after that is the question. We are at critical support for the OEX at around 660. Oversold and staying there which is never a good thing. I did have an order in late for OEX calls but we bounced in the last 15 minutes and it wasn't filled. I may or may not try again tomorrow. But that would be the trade here. Short term. Gold lost around $4 as the dollar had a good day. ABX and NEM both showed losses on heavy volume. That isn't promising for the bullish case. My order for NEM calls was filled and I almost was already stopped out. Perhaps this isn't the time to chase it. If I do get stopped out I will try and get something for February. We'll see what happens. GE was up slightly on heavy volume. The earnings are coming out a week from this Friday, not as I had previously stated that they would be out this Friday. I'm going to try and not trade it anyway. Mentally I feel fine, got a good nights sleep. I might try the OEX calls tomorrow if I get a chance or I might just let it go. We'll see. There is plenty of bearishness out there at the moment which in turn makes me feel good about going the other way. That and the fact that we are technically oversold makes the odds of getting calls here better than average. That's the feeling at the moment. Of course, that could all change tomorrow.
Friday, January 04, 2008
So much for getting OEX calls. I guess I finally got lucky yesterday when my order wasn't filled. The Dow sank today, off 256 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative. The employment report was very weak and the markets didn't like that. The summation index has rolled over to the downside. That said we are extremely short term oversold. There will be a bounce within the next 2 days in my opinion. I might attempt to play it. We'll see. Gold lost around 3 bucks and the XAU lost over 4 points. ABX and NEM were both down and that was to be expected after the recent incredible run-up. I have an open order in for some NEM calls. I think that gold is the place to be even with the recent upside. That is where the money is going. I could be wrong. GE lost about 80 cents on average volume and closed near its low. Earnings out in a week but this issue has already disappointed. Mentally I am tired, not a good nights sleep again. The market is telling us that trouble lies ahead. The year end rally never materialized. Whatever the reasons this year has started out to the downside. It isn't a good sign for the bulls. Capital preservation will be the key. I think that is what's important now. It's possible that we have quite a way to go down from here, roughly around 600 on the OEX. Monday will be interesting but for now it's the weekend. Time to regroup and get some rest. Check the charts and come up with a game plan for next week.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
The Dow managed a 12 point gain on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were much higher during the day. I did place an order for OEX calls but wasn't filled. We are oversold and I guess I'll try and buy the calls again tomorrow on any weakness. Employment report due at the open. So we'll see what happens. Gold continued higher, up another 9 bucks. The XAU rose 6 points. ABX was up over $2 and NEM up over $1 on extremely heavy volume again. These stocks have gone up about 10% in 2 days! Amazing. I still want some calls there because that is where the money is flowing. Gotta wait for some type of pull back though. You cannot deny the strength of the gold shares here. There is a lot of publicity about the gold move in the media though. Sometimes that means a top is imminent. GE didn't do much on light volume. Mentally I'm a bit tired, up early and not enough sleep. The OEX call prices didn't move as much as anticipated with the upside earlier in the day. That concerns me going forward. The summation index is moving sideways here. It will break one way or the other. This really isn't a good start to the new year and that is a concern also. So there are questions about the market here that remain to be answered. No need to take chances at the moment.
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
It was a negative start to the new year as the Dow lost 220 points. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative. However the advance/declines were not nearly as negative as a down 200 market would imply. We are oversold. I'm thinking that the OEX calls should have been bought today but I couldn't do it. The market is acting strange again and I don't know why. Employment report on Friday. We are due for some type of bounce. Indecision is not a good thing in trading. Gold had a stellar day up over $20. The XAU was up an astounding 11 points. Fear is driving money into gold. ABX was up 4 and NEM up 3 1/2 on extremely heavy volume. Money is flocking to gold. Obviously I should be in it and I'm not. I don't feel good about that. I might chase it here, even with todays action. We'll see. GE lost about a 1/4 on average volume which really was pretty good considering the overall market. Earnings a week from Friday. Will I attempt another trade there? Hopefully not. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. Somewhat disappointed with todays mental make-up but that's to be expected with such lousy trading results lately. I suppose I could say the same thing that I said at the end of the year. Weakness tomorrow should be bought. The summation index will be turning down today but it has been in a congestion zone. So there are crosscurrents to be worked out. I think following the money into gold might be a better play. But I'm not sure. I'll look at the charts tonight and take it from there...