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Monday, January 31, 2005

The market rose around 62 points today, breaking a multi-week downtrend line. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive and the volume was average. Todays action should turn the summation index upwards. Are we out of the woods here? Could be. But it is the end of the month. Technically it looks like the decline has ended. Gold was down over $5 today. The XAU was only down fractionally. I bought some March ABX calls. We have reached the lower end of the Bollinger band. I have a stop-loss order in to limit the loss if my timing is off. It could be. We are oversold on the technicals for gold and at least a bounce could be in order. Don't know. The dollar was slightly weaker today. Employment report at the end of the week. Possible beginning of the month inflows for the market tomorrow. Tough game to play. I almost bought some OEX puts at the downtrend line today. However I did not, probably because I had already been filled on the ABX order. We'll see what happens.

Friday, January 28, 2005

The Dow was down another 40 points today on average volume. It did make a comeback in the last hour though. Advance/declines were barely negative. It is feeling like a market that wants to turn around and go higher. A lot of possible movement next week with the end of the Iraqi elections, the Fed and the employment report. Gold was down a little, the dollar was slightly higher. The gold shares sold off a tad on again light volume. Still no interest there. We are hold the recent lows. Perhaps a bottom is being formed. The XAU has about 3 1/2 points to go to get to the long term uptrend line. I'm trying to be patient. I almost bought some PFE calls today on another possible bullish chart formation. Like when I tried to do that with Intel last month. And how much did I lose? Didn't do it today and preservation of capital comes to mind. Discipline, patience can't be stressed enough. I will do a gold trade if it sets up for me. Would have liked to get long the OEX today also but did not. We'll let the weekend pass and take it from there.

Thursday, January 27, 2005

The Dow was down 30 points but the tone of the market was much better. We got a last hour rally and the advance/declines were positive. Volume was average. GDP report tomorrow. Iraqi elections over the weekend. What that has to do with anything, I don't know but the media is starting to look at it. Perhaps a rally when it is over. Who knows? Gold was down a bit and the XAU was off a little. No volume in the gold shares. I'm trying to be patient there but there is a possible positive divergence. The dollar was a bit higher today. Summation index still pointing down but not as drastic as previously. Could it be ready to turn around? I don't know. What I need to do is wait for a decent signal somewhere and then act on it. Discipline will be required. It is so hard to do. This is an incredibly difficult game to play.

Wednesday, January 26, 2005

Dow up 37 points on good volume. Advance/declines were well over 2 to 1 positive. Have we reached the bottom? Don't know. A downtrend line is still in effect. Time will tell. Gold was up over $5. The gold stocks didn't move much. Don't know what to make of that. Trying to stay patient. Would like to get long but must not jump at it. It's going to be hard. Not much volume in the gold shares so there is no interest just yet. GDP is out on Friday, perhaps that will move things. Not much else to write. GE was down a tad. I figure tomorrow will be a hang around day waiting for Friday. The hardest thing is to be disciplined and be patient. I really would like to redeem myself after the latest trading fiasco. But I can't force things or I am doomed. The battle against myself is consuming me. I need to find a way to win it. At this point I don't know how...

Tuesday, January 25, 2005

Short post due to this site having problems, AGAIN. Dow up around 90 points on good volume. Advance/declines about even though so this is just a bounce, I believe. We shall see. Gold sunk today and the dollar was stronger. We have broken support on the XAU. There is a multi-week up trend line about 4 points away and I will be getting long if and when that line is hit. That is the next play. Either NEM or ABX. Both were down today. The dollar crossed 84 today and the resistance is at 85. Getting long gold at that point should work. That is what I have in mind. Otherwise it is a wait and see attitude for the market. There is a downtrend line in effect at this juncture. Summation index still pointing down. That's it for today.

Monday, January 24, 2005

The market continues down. The Dow lost 25 points on negative advance/declines. Volume was average. We closed at the low of the day. A bounce is due. A rally is due. But none has come. The recap of my most recent trades is as follows. 100% losses in half of them. 55% losses in the other half. What a way to start the year. Obviously changes must be made. It is up to me to make them. My emphasis must shift from huge gains to protecting capital. It is the way for now. I have no other choice. I cannot continue to bankrupt my mind with lousy trading tactics. The money doesn't matter as much as the emotional upheaval. That is the truth. It sucks to start out in the hole but that is my fault. Gold did not move much today but the gold stocks were down. ABX was the exception. I'm looking for a trade there but will have to be patient. The charts do not favor anything at the moment. GE was up today but not much. I'm thinking of getting long the OEX if it continues down tomorrow. There will be a short term signal if that occurs. But most of all I am trying to keep it together after devastating losses. My mind needs to be cleared out to be able to trade successfully again. I am working on it. It is always a work in progress. Discipline must be adhered to. There is no other way. Tough game.

Friday, January 21, 2005

Thursdays post did not print on the site. I will be looking for another site. I cannot take the time to write and then have technical difficulties. I have enough problems as it is. The Dow continues lower. Down around 75 points on good volume. Advance/declines were barely negative. Normally I'd say that's a good thing but this market is troublesome. Good earnings from GE could not move us higher and didn't do much for GE either. I sustained heavy losses to begin the year again. I have sold all my positions and now am out of the market. GE was down a quarter on heavy volume. I had a chance to take a small profit early and did not in one of the positions. I blew it again. I will now have to try to climb out of a deep hole again. I was somehow able to do it last year. 2 years in a row? That would be asking a lot. My mistakes remain the same and I must find a way to change or they will never go away. The market speaks to you and you have to listen. When the market speaks it doesn't matter what your position is. You have got to listen to the market. Your ego and wanting to be right all the time will kill you. Listen to the market. If you can hear it you are ahead of the crowd. If you can heed it you are a winner. I must somehow regroup and attack again. At this point I am a beaten trader. I will need to take some time off. How much, I don't know. Losing is a terrible feeling when you do it in the manner I just did. There is no one to blame but myself. I have been down this dead end road in the past. It is hard to recover. It takes a lot out of you. Nothing hurts more than losing. There is nothing good about it at this point. These lessons should have already been learned. There is nowhere to hide and nowhere to go.

Wednesday, January 19, 2005

I don't think anything will help this market. We were down again, almost 90 points on the Dow. Volume was average and advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative. There had to be weakness, even I could see that. There is no inflation according to todays report. If we can't rally on good news there is no hope. After the bell, QCOM guided lower and that will not bode well for tomorrow. EBAY just announced lower numbers also. Trouble. GE was down 50 cents today and I can already tell that I will get killed here. Serves me right. I put too much money into these trades and the earnings on Friday won't matter when we are dropping like this. So it looks like a rerun of last year with huge losses to start the year. Although I was able to come back last year, I am getting tired of the lackluster results that I generate. It is a lot of work and the returns just don't justify all the time that I put in. I think I will take some time off. Although the volume on GE was light, I'm thinking that was more of a lack of interest in the overall market than anything specific about GE. The gold shares were down and the dollar rallied a little. Not much else to say here. All signs point down.

Tuesday, January 18, 2005

Up again today, 70 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive and the volume was good. I think that we are getting ahead of ourselves here. I expect some weakness at some point this week. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think so. GE was up 40 cents on good volume. Hope springs eternal. I'm holding out for the earnings on Friday unless it rallies big before then. Rallies big? I'll be lucky if I don't lose my shirt here. The week has started positive but I am not so sure it has any staying power. Perhaps todays action will turn the summation index up. Earnings are coming out in full force now, IBM reports after the bell. We also have an inflation report tomorrow. No shortage of news to move things around. The dollar was up a tad today and oil rallied but then finished unchanged. A best case scenario for the week would be a stable dollar with a drop in oil prices. Anything to get GE moving up. Even if it rallies this week, I still stand to lose everything in one of the trades unless a miracle occurs. And even if it did, it still is a bad trade. Doesn't matter if it makes money, it probably won't. Trading correctly is important. If you do that you will make money. The goal is to trade well and everything else will take care of itself. I'm still working on it. I have to get better or perish. It's that simple. I have no other trades on the horizon at this point. Finish up with GE and then take it from there...

Friday, January 14, 2005

A slight, light volume rally today with the Dow up over 50 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. There is nothing to get excited about with todays action. A lot of participants were off or went home early because of the long weekend. We will see more downside action next week, I'm sure of it. What happens to GE, I'm not so sure. We were up about 30 cents on light volume today. It is all going to be up to the earnings on Friday. I am a fool to let it get down to that but that is the position I find myself in. Summation index is still pointing down although the postings should be getting closer. No matter. There are some negative readings that have to be replaced on one of my indicators. Downside will happen. Inflation was non existent for todays number. Another reading will be on Wednesday. Gold was down a couple bucks, with the XAU down around a point. The dollar was stronger. I'm still gonna wait for the dollar to get to 85 before I get another position in gold. Patience. So now it's a long weekend which I will try not to worry about this GE position. It's simply a waiting game at this point. Hopefully the market doesn't completely collapse early next week and the GE earnings come in very strong. That is the only scenario which will bail me out at this point. Until tuesday or maybe sooner...

Thursday, January 13, 2005

Another day another loss. The Dow got pounded in the last hour and lost 111 points. Advance/declines were negative but not even 2 to 1. The volume was average. GE lost around 50 cents and I am getting killed. I am a fool to have held on to these calls. I should have bailed out as soon as the summation index went to the downside. The market was telling you what to do and I did not listen. What a fucking dope. I have no choice but to wait for the earnings next friday and hope for a miracle. What an idiot. The market is oversold and staying there. That is never a good thing. We have now broken to fresh lows and the support has been taken out. We never got through the down trend line and so that is still in place. Buy signals are not working. I've been wrong here and I've been wrong before but it doesn't make it any easier. However, I can always make the money back. Gold didn't do much, the XAU was down a point. The last hour sell-off is another negative. Inflation report due tomorrow and that could be another nail in the coffin. Not much else to say. Oil was higher but still below $50. The dollar was up a tad. Long weekend coming up and nobody will want to be long going into that.

Wednesday, January 12, 2005

We got a bounce at the end of the day with the Dow up 60 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. The market opened lower, then closed higher so it's possible that it was a one day reversal. We closed right at a multi-day down trend line. Perhaps if we can take it out tomorrow we could get a few days of upside. But I'm not convinced the downturn is over. I only hope it is. GE was up around a quarter on good volume. It's encouraging but it is only one day. There is a downtrend line in place here also but GE is about 50 cents away from it. Will I hold on until the earnings next Friday? I don't know. Sure I'll hold the options with no bid, I don't have a choice. But I've got some others that might bail out the losers. Time will tell. Gold was up $4 today but the gold shares did nothing much. NEM was higher and ABX lower. Perhaps the relative strength has switched back to NEM. The dollar was weaker on poor trade numbers. I'm holding off on a gold trade until I finish with GE. Next week is a short week which must be factored into the trading equation also. Possibly got a divergence with the McClellan oscillator today but it depends on the action from here. Was today a one day wonder? Tomorrow will tell a lot...

Tuesday, January 11, 2005

Another downer of a day. The Dow lost over 60 points on negative advance/declines and average volume. The trend is down, has been down and will continue down. I am an idiot to hold onto the calls I own. GE was down 50 cents. One of the positions doesn't have a bid. Terrible. It looks like a repeat of last year, with huge losses to start the year. The same thing again? Looks like it. If you can't correct your mistakes you will just keep making them and losing money. These are the facts. There is no hiding from the truth. I will say that one of my indicators is way oversold and the market should get some footing here. Whether or not GE goes along for the ride is unknown. Gold was up a little as was the XAU. NEM was the best performer and that might be the play for February. Intel announces after the bell for the recent quarters earnings. Perhaps some good news will come out. But you can't escape the fact that the trading thus far has been ridiculous. Piss poor. Unacceptable. Perhaps it is time to get flat and regroup. Most certainly it is. At this point there could be no choice but to wait until the earnings next Friday. It is a sad place to be in but there is no hiding from the truth...

Monday, January 10, 2005

The Dow bounced a bit today, up 27 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was average. We have worked off the short term oversold condition and I fear we will be heading lower. I hope I'm wrong. GE was down again and cannot gain any traction. My calls, the bulk of them, are losers. Here too, I fear that there will be no bounce or sustained move to the upside. The technical indicators for GE remain oversold and that is not a good sign. With the summation index still trending down and the market not being able to hold its gains, we are in trouble. Unless there is a catalyst form out of the blue, this market is heading lower. Although one of my intermediate term indicators is about to flash a buy signal, I don't think it will be enough to save the GE calls. Gold shares bounced around but really didn't go anywhere. My focus is on GE though. That's where my money is. There are 8 days until expiration and 7 days until the earnings announcement. I allocated too much to this trade and that was a mistake. For whatever reason, trades like this rarely work out. Once in a while they do but usually they don't. Tomorrow should be interesting but I think it won't be good...

Friday, January 07, 2005

The employment report could not get us going to the upside. The Dow lost around another 20 points on light volume. Advance/declines were negative. This market just can't get going. It isn't a good way to start the year. GE was down again. It isn't looking good there. It could be a repeat of last years early debacle. Perhaps something can get us going next week. This thing is way oversold. The bounce was nothing and we are treading water. Gold continues down also. Although the gold shares didn't fall today, that market is blown out and will require some time to repair. The dollar was higher again. It should run into resistance at 85. I'll be looking at gold there. I really don't have much else to say here. We are in a decline and I own calls so what else can go wrong? I'm going to try and get back here this weekend.

Thursday, January 06, 2005

Well, we got a little bounce today. And I do mean little. The Dow was up 25 points on positive advance/declines. The volume was good but not as much as on the recent declines and that is troublesome. The employment report is out tomorrow. There will be a good move. However the tone of the market isn't bullish and I fear the results. Only because I own calls. GE was up about a quarter today, bouncing off its 50 day moving average line. It has to hold that line or I am dead. The volume there was average. 2 weeks until expiration and the earnings report. Tricky call. I have too much money in this trade. Hindsight is everything. It's my own fault. I should have never purchased those last 20 calls. The gold shares are still falling and the volume isn't what it used to be. Gold has broken down. The dollar is starting to stabilize. Had to figure that would happen after everyone and their brother was bearish the dollar. Summation index pointing down and the McClellan oscillator was below -200 yesterday. Not a good sign. But perhaps we have washed out and can get something going soon. I don't know and I'm not sure. My tech plays of Intel and Microsoft aren't moving and I guess I'm glad I didn't lose too much there. My call/put ratio is getting bullish but not as good as I have seen it in the past. Anyway, this was a tough way for the market to start the year. Tomorrow should be interesting...

Wednesday, January 05, 2005

Down again. This market is in trouble. Another 30 points on the Dow with good volume. Advance/declines over 2 to 1 negative. I do not know what is going on here but it isn't good. Closed on the low of the day. There should be a bounce. If it doesn't happen, oh boy. GE was down, my calls are losers. I should get out on a bounce. If there is no bounce, it doesn't matter. We are at the 50 day moving average. If it doesn't hold then losses will pile up. My scenario was wrong. I'm paying the price. Summation index pouring down now. Everything down again. Market tried to rise today and could not. XAU was down again but the shares were mixed. Intel kept dropping. I've got short term oversold signals but nothing is happening. Trouble. I should probably just bail out of everything and get on the sidelines. But I am waiting for a bounce. It usually happens at this stage. Troubling times.

Tuesday, January 04, 2005

Big down day. Dow off about 100 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines over 3 to 1 negative. Down volume swamped up volume. It is either the blow-off end of this decline or the start of a good decline. We are oversold here for sure. I dumped the Intel calls I had for a 50% loss. Should have sold them last week. Intel was down again today. The earnings come out next week but I don't think even that would save this trade. I thought I saw something there but I was wrong. Not a lot of money in that trade so I can live with it. GE got slammed today as well, down over 40 cents. Most of the calls I have are under water there as well. This is turning into a difficult period for me. My original idea of how the year would start has proven to be wrong. I think a bounce is due and when it comes I am going to have to decide what to do with all those GE calls. A lot of money is at stake here. GE is also oversold but as you know sometimes stocks can just stay oversold. Stay tuned. Gold was only down a buck but the gold shares tumbled. NEM and ABX have now broken multi-week uptrend lines. I'm staying away from them for now. Microsoft was the only issue on my screen that held up today. Summation index pointing down and that's not a good sign. Should be oversold though. But it's trouble.

Monday, January 03, 2005

Happy New Year. The Dow lost over 50 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative. I don't like it. I had expected a nice rise from the start today and it lasted about 5 minutes. The summation index has probably rolled over and is heading down after todays action. Intel lost 30 cents, the options are losers. I put in a sell order and it wasn't filled. Intel is around $23 and I have the $25 calls. Ain't gonna happen. I should have taken the loss last week. But I believed in my scenario and now that scenario is not going to play out. Intel is right on the moving average line and would need to go up good tomorrow for any chance to get out even. Not gonna happen. GE held in there and was up a couple cents. But it too will fall with the market and I must decide what to do there as well. Earnings come out on the last day of expiration. Oh my. I certainly don't expect a total collapse from here but I am not happy with todays results. Some short term stuff will be moving to oversold. But who knows? I guess I'll at least be waiting for the employment report on Friday. Gold got hammered today, down over $8. The XAU and the gold shares got clocked. Some issues are about to take out multi-week uptrend lines. If that happens, look out. I will check the charts again on NEM and ABX. Gold itself is right at an uptrend line also. The dollar was higher today. Pfizer was down, not looking to do anything there. It's just the first day of the year but it isn't how I pictured it to be. Sometimes making the adjustments to market conditions are the toughest things to do. The game isn't easy. If I have any brain in my head, I should dump the Intel calls before they are worthless and watch GE like a hawk. One never knows...