Pageviews past week

Wednesday, March 31, 2004

A slight pullback today, Dow down 25 points. GE and MSFT both down around 20 cents. Advance/declines were pretty positive though. I think it's a market that wants to go higher. But it is still overbought in my opinion and needs some type of pullback before a long position in something can be entered. I will try my best to wait for the employment report on friday. Perhaps place a limit order on thursday with best case scenario pricing. In other words, set the price for the ideal situation. If it happens, great. If not, there's always next week. Intermediate term indicators tell me some weakness is due friday or monday. Never said this was easy. It certainly isn't...

Tuesday, March 30, 2004

Another up day as the Dow tacked on 50 points. Overbought and staying that way. This could be one of those times where the market just keeps heading higher with no pullback to enter a long position. I hope not. But what do I know anyway? MSFT down a little and GE was up about 40 cents. No decisions made there yet. The McClellan Oscillator is now firmly in positive territory with todays numbers and confirms that the trend is up. Still the employment number looms for friday. There has got to be some money coming out before then I would think. Volume today was lighter then yesterday. Downtrend line on the COMPQ is still intact but the action suggests that it will be taken out. Probably need to get some MSFT calls. Don't like to make purchases when it is so overbought. Decisions, decisions...

Monday, March 29, 2004

Market continued higher today on OK volume for a monday. So maybe that was the bottom last week after all. It is sure looking that way now. I'm going to purchase some calls on any pullback. Short-term overbought for sure here. Do not know if I want anything before fridays employment report though. Tough decisions. GE and MSFT were both higher today. The COMPQ is at a downtrend line and hasn't broken through yet. I guess I'll look for a pullback in the next couple of days and take it from there. Or possibly wait for friday. That might be the smarter thing to do. Which means I probably won't do it. Love the game...

Sunday, March 28, 2004

Hey, I don't know were I get these ideas from. Go long Microsoft or GE? Where is the market headed? Who knows? And why trade it? I don't have the answers. Got a bounce last week but we are moving quickly to overbought short-term and I haven't a clue. My best guess is a lower beginning of the week and a waiting around for fridays employment report. Barring any unforeseen events, I'll get long something, sometime in the middle of the week. Possibly, maybe. It's also the end of the month. Time for the big boys to lock in profits and maybe cut some losses and window dressing. Whatever the hell that means. I used to know what it meant when I had some trading success but now I'm an idiot. I've checked the charts tonight and read all the commentaries. I'm thinking the seasonality factor will come into play in the beginning of April and keep this thing from dropping too far. I don't see some giant rise in the near future but I really don't know. The smartest thing to do is probably just step aside for now. We'll see.

Friday, March 26, 2004

Today the Dow was off 5 points. Up for most of the day, it sold off in the last half hour. MSFT was up for most of the day too, only to close down 15 cents to around $25. Now one must determine if yesterday was for real or just a fake on the way to lower prices. Could a pullback here be the entry point for April calls? Or will we head down to the 525 level on the OEX as I had previously anticipated? Is MSFT even worth trading? I'll be back with these and other things to ponder this weekend...

Thursday, March 25, 2004

Got a big bounce today. Dow up 170 points. Broke through some multiweek downtrend lines on some indices. Volume OK. This might be the bottom here and not the 525 level I was looking for on the OEX. I'm thinking of buying some Microsoft calls on any nearterm pullback. Might work. No more time today...

Wednesday, March 24, 2004

Market going nowhere today, down 15 points. A little volatility but not much. Oversold here I say and expect a bounce tomorrow or friday to be sure. Indicators are oversold and we will see a bounce. Still waiting for 525 on the OEX to place funds in funds. Probably sometime next week. And the trading? Ahh the trading. That is the question. With confidence basically shot, what's one to do? Regroup? Step aside? Wallow in self-doubt? Abandon the game? Difficult questions with no easy answers. Bounce tomorrow? Yes...

Tuesday, March 23, 2004

So where do you go after you start the year with blowout losses? Back to your cave? Trade even bigger size to make up for it? Trade more often? Give it up and take up gardening? What exactly do you do? Hey, I sure don't have the answers. Trading is a tough game that you basically play with yourself. The markets go where they will with or without you. Nobody forces you to trade. It's all on you. That's why the highs are so high and the lows, well the lows are the exact opposite. There is nobody to blame except yourself. It's a look upon yourself is what it is. Nobody can expect to be right all the time. At some point you will figure out your strengths and your weaknesses. It's what you do about them that will determine your fate in this game. It's very hard not to take the losses personally. These, after all, are your own ideas that you're trading off of. You put in the time and the effort and you expect decent results. But this game is unlike others. It can be fast, it can be slow, it can be nowhere. The news can be the same, the market reaction can be different. It is a game that cannot be figured out. I suppose you take your best shot and see what happens. But you had better be aware of yourself. What you can and cannot do. Each trader is different, each trade is different. Enough of my mindless chatter. Will try to be back here tomorrow...

Monday, March 22, 2004

Taking some time to clear my head after the latest BLOWOUT!! Market down today over 100 points again. Support at 525 on the OEX. At 535 now. Will throw some cash into my mutual funds when it gets to 525. But that's not trading. That's the long term stuff. Long term is easy. Time always bails you out. Short term is difficult. Time always works against you.

Friday, March 19, 2004

Well I blew it. The market opened weak and stayed there. I sold all the options for losses. What was profitable on wednesday and again on thursday, I sold for losses on friday. No discipline. Had a workable plan and did not stick to it. It has happened far too often than it should. The bounce occurred, I was there for it and lost. What are the answers? If you can't make money on set-ups like that, when can you? Once in a blue moon when you luck out? It is a very difficult game. There is no room for stupid mistakes. It's expensive, you're trading real money. Your own money that you could have done something else with and not gone through the mental anguish. I have now followed up a horrible trade in GE with an even worse effort with the OEX. I had way too much money in the GE thing. Twice as much as I was willing to risk because I fucked-up the entry at 2 different accounts. Then when GE announced they were buying something by issuing over 100 million new shares, I was dead. No bid all the way through expiration. I compounded the loss by having too much money in the trade. Foolish, stupid and only an idiot would do such a thing. The OEX trade, I have already explained. Bought one call early, then minutes afterwards the bombing in Spain happens. I mean you can't plan for these events but they happen and you take your lumps. The oversold bounce trade had to work, it did but I couldn't manage it properly. It had a 100% gain at one point for Gods sake. Maybe I am trying to hit the big winners too often. Maybe I should just take the profit when it's there. Maybe I simply suck and would be better off doing something else with my time. I mean how long can it go on like this? Maybe, just maybe I'm not good enough. I never have the discipline. It doesn't matter how much work is put in if you can't manage the trade. What is the point when the losses keep adding up? Where do I go from here? Even when I have nice profits, I inevitably give them back and more. I have already dug myself into a huge hole in the beginning of this year. What is the point I ask, what is the point? I will have to step back and re-evaluate this whole trading idea. The time has come for some honest assessment and answers. More this weekend, maybe...

Thursday, March 18, 2004

I must be nuts. Still holding these options with one day to go. Market sold off hard from the start, down 80 points. Options so far under water that Nemo couldn't find them. Then out of nowhere, news comes that some Al-Queda headhoncho is cornered in Pakistan. Market rallies back up and is basically unchanged on the day. Options now showing a small profit. Candlestick chart implies an upday tomorrow. It's crazy, I know. And I've got to see a physical therapist at 10 o'clock. Don't know how I'll pull this off. If the Al-Queda thing is for real, we should see some rally in the morning and I am gone from this madness. If not, I'm probably dead. Love the game...

Wednesday, March 17, 2004

Market bounce continued. Up 115 on the Dow. Options now in the black. Probably should have dumped them today, like I said when I purchased them. Volume not that great. Must exit tomorrow. 2 days until expiration. Still oversold but not extremely like it was. Playing with fire. Will exit on strength tomorrow. Should be some upside follow through but in this enviornment, who knows? Will have more market babble tomorrow...

Tuesday, March 16, 2004

Volatility was the tone for today as the market rocketed up on the open, fell all the way back during the day and then popped up again in the last hour. Fed announcement was a repeat of the previous, market zigzagged after that news. Most recent options purchased had little change by the end of the day. Although they moved from a profit to a loss and back to unchanged. It is a crazy game. You have to be crazy to do it and even more insane to keep at it. I'm going to look for more upside follow-through tomorrow, bail out of these things and then take it easy. The volume to the upside today was not that great. Technicals are still oversold. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

Monday, March 15, 2004

More sell off today. Market down big, over 130 points. But this thing is really blown out. Indicators all oversold. Put/call ratios high for three days now. I purchased a couple more calls on the OEX today. My readings say bounce and I believe that will happen barring a complete collapse. That's right. The only way that this thing won't bounce is if we get a meltdown. The odds on a meltdown are always very slim. I just don't see that happening this week. One must go with his or her beliefs and convictions. I'm not saying this is the ultimate bottom or that a bull leg is starting. I'm saying that a decent bounce will ensue shortly and the calls I bought today will be profitable. The Fed meets tomorrow and perhaps their announcement will be a catalyst for some upside momentum. There are 4 days left before expiration. I will dump these calls on wednesday if all goes according to plan. But then again, how often does that happen?

Sunday, March 14, 2004

Sunday night, S&P futures off 1.60. Even if It's a down day tomorrow, this thing is way oversold. But if the bounce continues I am gone from this option. I'm really tired so that's it. Will see what tomorrow brings.

Friday, March 12, 2004

Market bounce today. Up over 110 points. Volume not that great but everything else was good. OEX up over 5 points but the options hardly moved. Strange but it is one toughass game to play. I'll look for follow-through on monday if there are no terrorist attacks over the weekend. Will try to come back here over the weekend for more thoughts when I have the time.

Thursday, March 11, 2004

Haven't had time to get here. Hurt my shoulder and had to go to the doctor. Dentist appointment today. GE trade is dead and market has sold off sharply for 4 days now, breaking down. Trendlines have been violated. I'm looking for a short term bounce and purchased an OEX call today. It was then announced Al-Queda was responsible for an explosion in Spain and the market dumped another 100 points. Option in the red. No more time for today. Gotta run...

Monday, March 08, 2004

Market down over 60 points, GE down almost a buck. All is lost. It's all over but the crying.

Sunday, March 07, 2004

Well the employment number came and went. It was very weak. The market sold off early, came right back and rallied some, then sold off again and ended up going nowhere on the day. And so the sideways drift continues. GE was down 13 cents. The options have no bid. They will be total losers. With 2 weeks to go before expiration the options will just sit there worthless, as a reminder to what a lousy trade they were. It will eat away at you as they slowly die. Confidence will wane and you will question your next move. And so it goes. You gotta move on. Even the best set-ups don't work every time. Where is the market going? Where are you going? Things to ponder...

Thursday, March 04, 2004

Waiting for friday. That's all today is. Market is moving nowhere and neither is GE. Still no bid on the options I hold. The market will move tomorrow, which way, who knows? So much emphasis is placed on this employment number, it seems rather ridiculous. It will be adjusted in a month anyway. But markets need something to create interest, so we wait for tomorrow...

Wednesday, March 03, 2004

Another day waiting for friday. The market sold off in the morning, came back to a small gain in the afternoon and now is limping into the finish with a small loss. GE is actually up a quarter. Still no bid on the options I hold though. Loser. The only hope for these things, and I do stress, hope, is a great rally off the employment number on friday. That in turn would have to lead to a multiweek rally into the expiration close on the 19th. Do not think that is going to happen. I know I've called for new post recovery highs in this timeframe but at this point I am not as confident as previous. The only hope for that scenario would be that all the selling is taking place now and that friday will lead us to the promised land. At this point that's a pipe dream. But who knows? It could happen. About 15 minutes until the close. See ya tomorrow.

Tuesday, March 02, 2004

The market is weak. GE is down around a quarter. This trade is dead. The internals of the market suggest that this down move will be short-lived. Perhaps today is relieving the overbought condition. Big Al Greenspan said today that interest rates will eventually have to go up. That could be a reason for the decline. As for the GE options, there is no bid. I have an order to sell at the market if a bid develops. It is a loser trade. We'll wait for friday and the employment number.

Monday, March 01, 2004

A nice up day for the markets. The Dow was up over 94 points. Good breadth and volume was OK for a monday. However GE could only manage a 27 cent gain. I mean it's better than a loss but with the market acting strong I would have liked to see a real nice move up. The volume on GE was very light also. Not a good sign. The option price didn't move, that was expected. This trade is looking more and more like a dead dog. After the bell the Chairman of GE said that revenues would quadruple in some of it's foreign markets. If that can't get this stock going tomorrow, nothing will. We shall see. Market getting short term overbought here though. Could just drift to the downside until fridays employment report.