Friday, November 28, 2008
A holiday session ending higher as the Dow gained 102 points on light volume. Advance /declines were 2 to 1 positive. Overbought now and I would expect a pullback in the next couple of days. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU gained about a point. The gold shares were slightly higher on light volume. GE was the mover of the day up almost a buck on light volume. I suppose I'll try the calls there again on a pullback. Mentally I'm a bit tired but it is a holiday weekend and I hadn't planned on any trades today. I'm taking it easy and will get back to it on Monday.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Going higher as the Dow gained 247 points on lighter volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. The summation index looks like it has put in a double bottom and is now heading to the upside. Getting short term overbought and we will be after Friday. Bad news all around today and the market goes higher. I think that the sellers are gone for now. I'll be looking to buy something on any pullback. Gold lost $9 today but the XAU was up by almost 6 points. ABX and NEM were up over a buck and GG gained 2. The volume was pretty good for a pre-holiday session. The gold shares are the place to be and I'll be there if we get some sort of retracement. Seems like everyone has the same idea here though. We'll see. GE was up around 40 cents on average volume. I'll buy back the calls again if they get cheap. The real question I think at this point is what happens when we start to head lower at some point next week? I'm a believer in the upside for a while though. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep as much as usual. It's Thanksgiving and a nice long break from the markets is in order. I think that patience is the key here. There's still 3 weeks left in the December option cycle. Shortened trading day on Friday and then we'll get back to it on Monday.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
The Dow continued higher today, up 36 points on lighter volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. It has the feel of a market that wants to go higher, near term. But it is a holiday week and all the players aren't on the field. Gold was flat after selling off. The dollar was weaker again. The gold shares were mixed and the volume was still pretty good. The XAU was flat. GE was up around 60 cents on good volume. I'm thinking of buying the calls here again since the relative strength is looking good here. Not sure I'll get the chance though. Mentally I'm doing OK. Might try and wait until next week to do the next trade. We'll see. Short post today due to time constraints.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Continuing higher today as the Dow gained 397 points. Volume was lighter than Friday when it was expiration related. Advance/declines were about 7 to 1 positive. Has the low now been put in? Maybe. Perhaps last Thursday was the final shakeout. I'm guessing that it was but I've been wrong quite a lot lately. That doesn't mean we won't head back down again to test it. It's been one crazy game lately. Thanksgiving week can have a positive bias at times. But that doesn't mean anything now. So we'll see. Gold added another $25 and the XAU rose 6 points. ABX up a buck, GG 1 1/3 and NEM 2 3/4. Volume was heavy again. I am a believer in this move. However we are now at the weekly downtrend line for the gold shares. I would expect some pullback here and that could be a chance to get long. There's also a chance that we just keep moving to the upside here but there was some one day reversals put in with regards to ABX and GG. I'm going to be looking to get long there though if the opportunity presents itself. GE was up 1 1/4 on very heavy volume again. The GE calls showed a profit again and I got out. It may be early but the option pricing just hasn't made sense lately. It was a 60% gain. I may try and buy them back again cheaper in the coming days. Or not. If the market continues higher, GE should go along. However I would expect some sideways activity at the least considering we've gone up pretty good in the past 2 days. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Slept well enough. It's a holiday week and I expect things to slow down after tomorrow. But with this market, who knows? I'm satisfied at the moment with exiting the GE trade. I can now concentrate on perhaps a better situation. Money has come back into gold and that is where I'm going to look. But you never know. The dollar did get pounded today and oil had a pop. We'll have to see if it was just a one day wonder or the beginning of some meaningful correction in the dollar.
Friday, November 21, 2008
A positive expiration as the Dow got back what it lost yesterday. We were up 494 points on good volume. Advance/declines were positive. We'll have to see if we get any follow through on Monday but it is a holiday week. It may just be a one day wonder. We were oversold and today relieves that condition short term. So we'll see. It has been such a crazy time that I don't want to go out on a limb regarding the market here one way or the other. I've been quite wrong for at least a few months. Gold had a stellar day, up over $40. A flight to safety play but it sure took long enough. The gold shares went crazy with the XAU up over 18 points in a day. ABX up 6 1/2, GG up 5 1/3 and NEM up 5 1/2. All on incredibly high volume. My order for GG calls wasn't filled. Not sure that I want to chase it here but I'll look to get long on any pullback. The weekly charts look constructive at this point. GE rose over a buck on heavy volume. My GE calls didn't move. Again the option pricing completely makes no sense. I've seen it for a couple of months now. Perhaps I should just get to the sidelines. I'll be looking to exit this trade sooner rather than later. Mentally I feel OK. Missed opportunities seem to be the rule for me lately. I'm getting close but that isn't good enough in this game. The focus is getting better but not exactly where it needs to be. The market environment is dicey at best also. Still, you want to get in on the moves before they occur. I'll keep at it. The weekend is upon us. I'll check things over as usual and get ready for next week.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Crazy times are back or did they ever go away? The Dow lost 445 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 10 to 1 negative again. What can I say? It's a liquidation mode again. Selling brings on more selling and there seems to be no end. Expiration related? Of course some of that is there but it's the raising of cash by selling whatever you have left. The banking system has collapsed but at least they're still open for business. Cash is king. Gold was up over $10 but the XAU dropped a couple of points which wasn't bad considering. GG and NEM managed slight gains, while ABX had a small loss. Volume was very heavy. I have an open order in for some GG January calls. I don't know if it's the right move here but we are oversold. Who knows, I may cancel it tomorrow. GE got killed, off 1 1/2 on insane volume. The volume here has been incredible. I thought GE was a steal at $15. It is now 12 and change. I don't know what to say really. I did buy some GE calls again early this morning. Wrong move again? We'll see. I think we'll get one of those incredible up move days within a week and I should bail out then. But that may not happen. Mentally I'm a bit tired, didn't sleep as much as usual. Not to mention the volatility in the markets. But I'm hanging in there and think that perhaps this trade will work out. Expiration Friday and then a short holiday week. We all need a rest.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
The markets are breaking down again. The Dow lost 427 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 10 to 1 negative. The base that I thought was forming is breaking. Unless we get a dramatic turnaround tomorrow to the upside, there is no base. My opinion was wrong again. The market is proving me wrong once again. How low will we go? We'll see. Gold was up 3 bucks but the XAU dropped almost 4 points. ABX was unchanged while GG and NEM lost around a buck. I'm looking at the gold shares calls again but it's risky. The dollar remains strong with all of the market uncertainty. There was also talk of deflation from the Fed today and that won't help the cause for gold. The Gold/XAU ratio doesn't seem to work anymore. It's a crazy time. GE lost 1 1/2 on very heavy volume. I did have an order in for GE calls but canceled it. Might try again tomorrow but I'm not sure. I'll mull it over tonight. I also had an order in for OEX calls at one point but canceled that as well when the market broke through support. 2 days for the November option cycle and I really should not try anything at this point. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept well enough. Tomorrow is going to be an interesting day. It could get ugly. There may be some opportunities though. Hopefully I'm up for the challenge. There is nothing wrong with the sidelines though. Cash looks like it's king again. The selling seems like the liquidation we've seen since September. Everything goes just to raise cash. That seems to be the mode that is continuing.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
We ended the day up 151 points on the Dow. Advance/declines were negative though. Volume picked up a bit from yesterday. We were off over 150 at one point but came back late in the day. I did want to pick up those OEX calls but didn't. I still might give it a shot but we are running out of time and the risk is high. May not stop me though. Still forming a bottom here in my opinion or at least moving sideways. The longer it takes to form, the better the rally should be if we get one. Gold lost $9 today and the XAU dropped 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM all were little changed on lighter than lately volume. No trades right now but I'm still looking out to January there. GE was little changed after being lower earlier. Volume was heavy. I may try the December calls here. Technically looks OK to do it but like I said yesterday, the trades look more like they are in a feel mode than anything else. What does that mean? We're in a very different market period with extreme volatility. It affects the way things operate. Credit markets are still frozen. There is no velocity of money. Until that changes it will be even more difficult than usual to trade. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. Trying not to do anything stupid here yet I'd like to make some money. Next week will be a wash with the holiday. 3 days until expiration. We'll see.
Monday, November 17, 2008
A downer Monday as the Dow lost 223 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. Still trying to hold on here and I'm still a believer in that. It could be time to try the OEX calls for expiration week. Not a solid signal and more of the seat of the pants play. We'll see. No need to do anything else stupid this month but you never know. It still seems as though we are getting liquidation of whatever will sell, for whatever reason. We'll take it day to day for expiration week. Gold was little changed but the XAU dropped 4 points. ABX and NEM lost about a buck with GG off 2. Volume was average. Thinking about getting long gold again for January. Plenty of ideas here but will wait for the technicals to give the say so hopefully. GE was up a touch on average volume as well. Sold off and came back on the day. GE is at 15 and change. From a long term perspective I don't think you can go wrong there. Is GE going belly up? Are you kidding? In a couple of years you will look back and say it was a buy of a lifetime. Perhaps. It isn't Lehman Bros. That's just my opinion. Mentally I'm doing OK. I'd like to make some money this week. I don't want to do anything stupid though. I'm leaning towards the long side. But I could be wrong. Nothing wrong with staying in cash on the sidelines. We'll see what happens.
Friday, November 14, 2008
Back to the downside as the Dow lost 338 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative. We opened lower, fought back to show a gain and then dropped hard in the final hour. It's back to crazy time in the market. I'd like to say I know which way this thing is going to go but I don't. I'm sticking with the theory that we are forming a bottom and the lows will hold. It could be just a sideways affair though. Gold was up over $30 on the futures today but most of the gains in the gold shares came late yesterday. The XAU lost 4 1/2 points. ABX and GG lost about a buck, with NEM down 2. Volume was good. I may go out to January on the gold shares via calls in the coming weeks. We'll see. Just a thought at this point. GE lost a buck on heavy volume. May try the calls again here as well. But it's a tough call. The markets are in a strange place. Mentally I feel OK, slept well enough. I'm moving on from the last trade and missed opportunity. It's all I can do. One week left for the November option cycle. May try something next week but I'm not completely sold on the idea. Big economic summit this weekend but I doubt anything will come from it. As usual, I'll check the charts and go from there. For now it's time to step back and take a break.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Oversold and a bounce as the Dow gained 552 points today on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. We were down 300 points halfway through the session and took off from there. The lows have held once again. They will probably break eventually but now is not the time. We're still in the base building sideways mode for now. Gold futures were down over $10 on the day but rallied in the aftermarket. The XAU gained 9 1/2. ABX and GG were up around 3 on heavy volume, NEM gained 2. The gold shares had a one day reversal as well. The dollar was weaker today and oil gained a bit. It looks like today was the day to get long. GE gained 50 cents on insanely heavy volume after trading below $15. That was incredible. I wanted to get some OEX calls again but did not. Mentally it's a frustrating time. I wanted to get some OEX calls when we were down 300 and didn't. Again I did not do what needed to be done, when it needed to be done. It's a trading funk to be sure that started when I did not exit the GE trade on time. Now selling yesterday for a small loss carried over into today and I could not muster up the courage to get long when I know it needed to be done. These are things that must be worked on. The market is trading crazy again but there are opportunities to be taken advantage of. I haven't been up to the challenge as yet. So we'll move on to tomorrow and go from there.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
It's back to crazy time in the markets as the Dow lost 411 points on increasing volume. Advance/declines were 10 to 1 negative. There were no buyers. The summation index has turned around. Do I still think we are forming a bottom? Is the bottom in for now? I certainly thought is was but if we don't hold here now, then I was wrong again. We'll see. Tomorrow should be interesting. Gold lost around $15 and the XAU shed 8 1/2. ABX off over 2, GG and NEM down about 1 3/4. All had decent volume. The dollar gained just a bit and oil was at its lowest level this year. It looks like we are back in the sell whatever is worth something mode. GE lost a buck and a half on extremely heavy volume. The pricing on the options is not making any sense again. The calls I own only lost a penny. No matter, I dumped them for a 50% loss. That was a terrible trade and it could be the last for this year. Not a lot of money there but the tactics were horrible. I did not do what I needed to do when it needed to be done. I'm working on it. I bought another heathcare issue today and that's it for my longer term stock purchases. Mentally I'm feeling a little better, slept well. Still not all the way back as I continue to fight off a cold. The market is even more confusing that usual. If it doesn't hold up here, it will get even more uglier than it's been. And it's been pretty ugly. I did not know what was going on when we collapsed before. The technicals did not work. It has the feel of that again. So we'll see.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Lower from the start today as the Dow dropped 176 points. Volume was low again. The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative. The summation index may be stalling here but I don't think it's anything to worry about. Oversold for sure at this point. I still think we are base building. I do not expect a break of the recent lows but I could be wrong. Partial holiday today so we'll see what happens tomorrow. Gold lost the $12 it gained yesterday. The XAU fell 5 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all fell over a buck but the volume was light. I'm not looking at doing anything there at the moment. GE lost 60 cents on good volume. My calls are in the red and staying there. They might make it back to break even. It depends on how the week plays out. I'm not holding on forever here though. This trade was already done wrong. Mentally I'm tired and still not feeling OK. Making the best of it. I bought another stock for a longer term hold today, EMKR. This is an alternative energy play. They have a patented solar technology that is more cost effective for commercial use. Could have gotten it cheaper, as it fell apart today but what can you do? We'll see where it goes. Otherwise I'm going to try and get some rest. I would expect to start to head higher here, near term.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Opened higher and closed lower to start out the week. The Dow lost 73 points on light volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. We opened up a couple of hundred points but that was it for the upside. Getting to the point of short term oversold soon. Tomorrow is a bank holiday so the volume should be light again. Getting back to normal on Wednesday is my guess. The tone in the market is negative again. I do expect a decent upside move at some point this week. Gold was up $12 today and the XAU rose 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up around a buck on average volume. HL didn't do much again. No plays in gold at the moment. GE lost 40 cents on light volume. The calls I own are under water. I should be dumping them at some point this week if my brain is working properly. This is a trade that should be over. Mentally I'm not feeling well and it takes away from what I need to do here. I've got another cold and I'm far from 100% health wise. But the markets move on. I did have one of my orders filled for one of the stocks that I was watching. I now own some THC. It's a healthcare play and a long term hold for now. I'm looking at some alternative energy plays as well as another healthcare firm. We'll see. Not much else for today, I'm going to try and get some rest.
Friday, November 07, 2008
A bit of a bounce back as the Dow gained 248 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. Bad news on the employment front and we rallied anyway. Volume was lighter than yesterday though. Summation index still heading higher. Sideways to higher for the market here in my opinion. We just fell about 1000 points in 2 days but I don't think we will be heading much lower. We'll see. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU added 3 1/4. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher between 1/2 and 1. Volume was lighter than lately. No trades there. I do own HL which is getting pounded lately. It's a long term hold for me unless they go out of business. GE was up around 1/2 on light volume. The calls I have are where I bought them. I'll be looking to dump them next week hopefully, depending on the price movement. The premiums still are not moving in tandem with the stock price. It's been that way for a while. I still haven't figured that out. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. Not much else to say here. Not a good week trading, as I didn't do what needed to be done, when it needed to be done. I'm working on it. The weekend has arrived and it's time for a break. I'll check the charts and get ready for Monday.
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Continuing to the downside as the Dow dropped 443 points on average volume. Advance/declines were over 5 to 1 negative. Has the volatility returned? Perhaps. Employment report tomorrow and that will be a mover. Which way is the question. I don't know. However I don't believe this is the start of another leg down to new lows. But I could be wrong. Gold lost 10 bucks and the XAU fell 8 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down around 2 points on good volume. The dollar saw some strength on a flight to safety I'm guessing. I'm laying off gold for now. GE lost about a buck and a half on heavy volume. Tuesday was the day to get out. My calls are back to where I bought them. I'd buy them again here if I didn't already own them. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A bit disappointed that I couldn't do what was necessary earlier in the week but that's my own fault. The battle within goes on. Otherwise just waiting for tomorrow morning and we'll go from there.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Settling out for the day as the Dow lost 490 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative today. We were overbought and a decline was in order. I don't think it's the beginning of the end. Summation index still heading higher. Obama was elected as expected. The employment report on Friday is the next event. I can't see that as being a positive but you never know. So we'll see. Gold lost $15 and the XAU shed 3 1/3, which wasn't bad considering the decline in the overall market. ABX and NEM lost ground but GG was higher on the day. Volume was average. I'm not looking at any trades for the gold shares at the moment. GE lost around 80 cents on average volume. The calls lost some ground and should have been sold yesterday. Going out to December should help the cause. The volume pattern looks favorable there but todays price action wasn't. However the option pricing there remains dicey. I still haven't figured it out. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep as well or as long as needed. Again, the focus and concentration needed to be successful is huge. It's probably more important than a lot of other things when it comes to trading. Of course the technical analysis and other market work must be done. But if you can't do what you have to do, when you have to do it, it won't matter. It's at times a battle with yourself and there is no getting around that. I'm still working on it.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Overbought and staying there as the Dow gained 305 points on average volume. Advance/declines were about 4 to 1 positive. I expected a pull back and it didn't happen. We went straight down, will we head straight up? Not forever. Summation index higher and I think we can all agree that a bottom is in. I'd expect some follow through tomorrow morning but after that we need to take a rest. Perhaps the employment report will be the catalyst for that. Gold had a stellar day as the dollar got pounded. The yellow metal rose $30 and the XAU tacked on 12 points. The bottom has been seen there as well. ABX, GG and NEM all rose around 3 bucks on good volume. What can I say except that I missed this move in the gold shares? Frustrating to be sure but it's the nature of the game. Too late now for this part of the move. GE had a good day, up 1 1/2 on heavy volume. The options aren't moving much though. It continues to be puzzling. I'm pretty sure that I'm going to dump the calls I own tomorrow and try and buy them back cheaper in a few days. That's the thought process at the moment. Mentally I'm doing OK. Trading is the toughest game in the world. I can't think of anything more challenging. The effort required to be successful is beyond most and at times beyond me. At least I know the facts about that and don't try and fool myself. I've missed some good opportunities lately but I also haven't been in a position to let myself succeed. That is changing as I now hopefully have the proper mindset and time to do what is required. We'll get the election out of the way and go from there.
Monday, November 03, 2008
A waiting game as the Dow lost 5 points on light volume. Advance/declines were positive. We are overbought and due for a pullback. The market is waiting on the election results and the employment report. But at least we are getting into a more normal market mode. Any retreat in prices can be bought in my opinion. Gold was up around 8 bucks today but the XAU was flat. ABX, GG and NEM didn't end with much of a change one way or the other on light volume. Wouldn't be surprised to see a pull back here as well. GE lost about 1/4 on light volume. The options went up in price which again, makes no sense. I'm holding for now but will be looking to get out. I think it is a legitimate play though. Mentally I'm doping OK, slept well enough. I am looking at some longer term trades in individual stocks as I mentioned before. However It looks like I've missed the moves because they have all rallied strongly from their lows. If we get a pull back in these issues as well, I will give them a shot. At the moment I'm stuck in HL which releases its earnings tomorrow. I bought it twice on the way down and it is a loser at the moment. No hurry there but the entry timing was way off. And so it goes.