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Friday, November 17, 2017

There was no follow through to yesterdays bounce as the Dow fell 100 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive though.  The summation index is trying to turn around here.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  We did not see the usual heavy expiration volume today and I have no explanation for that.  We will be moving into holiday mode for Thanksgiving week coming up.  I do not expect a lot of price movement in the coming trading days.  Basically I'm anticipating being on hold for a week.  We're still medium term overbought but could remain that way as we have for the past couple of months.  Earnings season is now over and I suppose that the market will now focus on the tax deal.  That's my guess for now.  GE was off a few cents and the volume remains pretty heavy.  I'm leaving in the open order for the January calls here.  Gold caught a bid as the futures rose $16.  The US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU and GDX had minor gains on better volume.  But there's still no real interest her in my mind.  Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep well.  The market hasn't just gone straight up for the past couple of weeks but I do not think that it is a change to the upside prognosis.  I'm still a believer that this is a pause before we go to new all time highs before the end of the year.  The recent weakness in the TRAN along with the RUT have not manifested itself with a drop in the overall market.  Those two indices are often leaders but that hasn't happened in this case.  The fact that the other small stock indexes are practically at all time highs strengthens the case for a positive outcome to the recent market sideways to lower action.  I'm thinking perhaps SPY calls in the future but will let next week pass at the least.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Thursday, November 16, 2017

We got a bounce today as the Dow zoomed 187 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower but may attempt to turn around here.  No real news to drive prices higher today so perhaps the move was a result of the short term oversold condition.  It's been kind of a strange week for price movement in my mind so we'll have to see what happens tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators have now turned up for the major indices, so we'll look for follow through tomorrow.  GE just hung around today but the volume was huge.  Apparently there are still plenty of sellers.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves lower on extremely light volume.  Again, no interest in the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Some small stock indices recorded new intra-day highs today.  That tells me that most likely the sideways to lower price movement we've seen lately is coming to an end.  Unless we see a dramatic turnaround back down tomorrow, I'd look for higher equity prices going forward.  New all time highs for the Dow and the S&P should be forthcoming.  That's my best guess at the moment.  We'll get through the November option expiration tomorrow and then things should quiet down with a shortened holiday week on tap.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow.  

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Continuing lower today as the Dow fell 138 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  No positive expiration bias this time around.  The VIX did spike higher but came off of its highs for the session, a repeat of yesterday.  We're still not completely oversold for the short term on the major big cap indices but we're getting there.  It also hasn't been much of a percentage decline there either.  I do expect some type of bounce before the end of the week.  The quantity and quality of that should tell us something.  GE was up 1/3 on very heavy volume.  Has the bottom been put in?  Or is this just short covering?  I'm leaving in my open order for the January calls here.  Gold was off five bucks.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX were little changed as well.  Volume here remains very light and uninteresting.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We sold off early again today and made our way back for much of the session.  The difference today was that we sold off again into the close.  We'll see if that makes a difference going forward.  There were no big surprises from the economic data released today.  The small stocks still have good relative strength here, so I'm not expecting some type of imminent collapse.  To me it's still a sideways consolidation before the next leg up.  If we drop from here then I may have to change that thesis.  Foreign stock markets have had a sharper drop but they usually aren't the leaders.  We'll keep an eye on this going forward.  Europe and Asia were both lower last night with Asia taking the worst of it.  I 'll expect some kind of bounce tomorrow in the US.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading.    

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Just another day of selling off early and then coming back.  The Dow fell 30 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving lower.  Once again the overall market was weaker than the Dow.  We've had plenty of chances to sell off here and it just hasn't happened.  I do think that we are having a sideways correction before we once again move to new all time highs.  I'm not sure how long we'll go on like this but that is what I think is happening here.  The VIX has spiked up here but looks like it is going to roll back over.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have rolled over but are not completely oversold yet.  GE got slammed again and was off over a buck.  Volume was like yesterday, out of control huge and negative.  I adjusted my January call option order here again to a lower strike price.  I'll feel more confident about this trade the lower we go.  The trouble is that I certainly don't know how far this stock is going to drop.  Gold was up a little over a buck as the US dollar had a weak session.  The XAU and GDX didn't move much on light volume.  Still no love for the gold shares.  We have yet to see the usual positive bias that occurs during option expiration week.  So far it doesn't look like the TRAN and RUT are going to lead us lower here.  The other small stock indices remain near their highs and that's a positive.  I still do not have any SPY trades in the works for the near term.  Although the summation index continues to go down, stock prices really haven't followed.  Again, when the indicators stop working it's probably best to simply step aside.  I also haven't had a good handle on things lately and I'm not feeling 100% yet.  I will keep trying the GE trade though.  Sometimes it is a good idea to try and step in when nobody else wants to.  Europe and Asia were both lower but not by a lot.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday, November 13, 2017

Once again the market sold off at the open and came all the way back.  The Dow gained 17 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was just a bit better than the Dow.  We'll get inflation data and retail sales this week.  It's also options expiration week so we'll look for the usual upside bias.  Perhaps that explains todays price action.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind here.  GE got clobbered today as it cut the dividend in half.  It lost 1 1/2 on outrageously heavy volume.  I did place an open order for the January calls here but then canceled it to go to a lower strike price.  I'm leaving the order good until canceled so if we see some more downside it may get filled.  This could be another trying to catch the falling knife trade and we all know what usually happens there.  I'm willing to give it a shot here though.  GE won't drop forever.  Gold gained a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar was barely lower.  The XAU and GDX barely moved on very light volume.  No interest in gold for now.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit better but not completely back to good health.  I should be back to normal soon.  More rest will hopefully do the trick.  The VIX looks like it is ready to roll back down and that should lead to higher prices.  The RUT appears to be trying to put in a bottom here as well and that would be bullish.  It really appears as though the major stock indices have put in some sideways consolidation and now are ready to go higher.  A turn back up in the summation index would solidify that thesis.  Hasn't happened yet but may very well in the coming sessions.  We'll be watching.  As for the potential GE trade, I'll just have to see what goes on from here.  GE did finish off of it's low for the day, so there is a chance that the worst is now over.  There's also the possibility that the shorts are simply starting to cover here.  Time will tell.  Asia was mixed with the NIKK taking a big drop.  Europe was lower.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action. 

Friday, November 10, 2017

Another attempt at a sell off but the Dow fought back again.  The most watched index finished with a loss of 39 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  This is looking more and more like a sideways consolidation before we move to new all time highs again.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the S&P but it looks like they want to turn back up again.  It has been an incredibly resilient market.  The weakness in the RUT and TRAN haven't meant anything here yet.  The trend remains higher for the major stock indices.  GE came to life a day ahead of what should be a dividend cut at their shareholders meeting on Monday.  It gained fifty cents on very heavy volume.  Perhaps all the bad news has been filtered into the stock but we'll know more on Monday.  I will be looking to purchase some January calls there if it starts to head south.  Gold lost a little over ten bucks today despite a slight drop in the US dollar.  The XAU was down 1/4, while GDX shed about 1/3.  Volume was light.  Oversold here but still no love for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm still tired and ill so that's not the best combination for trying to play the game.  If the RUT and TRAN are going to lead things here, I would have expected to see more of a decline this week.  Some of the major stock averages were negative but not by much.  It still has the look and feel to me as a pause before we move higher.  The VIX did move up slightly this week but evidently not enough to have a legitimate decline.  We'll see how things play out going forward.  The market is somewhat focused on the Trump tax plan but that has yet to finalize the details.  Unless we get some kind of external shock out of nowhere, I'm still looking for higher prices.  Just waiting for whatever news comes out of the GE shareholders meeting on Monday to decide what to do about initiating a trade there.  This may not be the best idea either as there will probably be some tax loss selling in December.  I'll consider the possibilities over the weekend if I'm feeling up to it.  Europe and Asia were lower last night.  It's Friday afternoon and I need some rest.

Thursday, November 09, 2017

The market tried to sell off today on a delay with the new tax law but did manage to make a comeback.  The Dow fell 101 points on pretty good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The Dow was off well over 200 points midway through the session.  It cut that decline in half and then some.  The market shrugs off bad news repeatedly.  The short term technical indicators for the major indices have rolled over.  We'll see if this actually leads to a sustained decline.  GE was off 1/8 on good volume.  Still waiting on a dividend announcement here.  Gold was up a couple backs.  The US dollar was weaker.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling tired and I am ill with some kind of flu.  So this post will be short.  We'll see if we get any follow trough selling tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the exception of the Hang Seng.  We'll finish out the week tomorrow.

Wednesday, November 08, 2017

The Dow continues the grind higher today by 6 points on very good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Overbought now for weeks and weeks.  It is sounding like a broken record.  All you can do is stay long because we've gotten plenty of sell signals and none of them have worked.  The VIX remains below 10.  Only the RUT and the TRAN have been in mild consolidations lately.  But there hasn't been any meaningful declines this entire year.  GE was off about a dime on lighter than lately volume.  Gold rose $6 on the futures as the US dollar was just a touch higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Gold is trying to hold its recent lows.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So where do we go from here has been the question for quite a while.  The answer so far this year has always been higher.  Stick with the trend is all you can do.  I've been waiting for a correction or some type of decline but it just doesn't happen.  Very short term overbought and extended here but it just doesn't seem to matter.  We are still in a very favorable seasonally time frame.  So I suppose we'll just have to ride it out to the inevitable end.  I do think that it will end badly when it comes.  I still think that we are in the 5th and final wave up of a move that began with the lows of March 2009.  So we will have to wait and see.  Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

Tuesday, November 07, 2017

The Dow keeps chugging along as we had selling throughout the session but finished with a gain of 8 points on pretty good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow.  Overall conditions remain the same.  Overbought, staying that way and the rally continues on.  We're due for some kind of pullback here in my mind but it probably won't last too long at this rate.  The RUT was much weaker today and it is often times the leader of things to come so stay tuned.  GE was up a few cents and volume is getting back to normal.  Has the selling finally dried up here?  We'll find out once they cut the dividend.  Gold fell $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So on the rally goes.  The summation index continues to head down yet the Dow continues to make new all time highs.  Something has to give here sooner or later.  Either the summation index will turn around or we'll finally get some weakness in the market.  We are pretty extended above the 50 day moving averages in some indices.  So I would expect prices to head back to there at the least.  We can only watch and wait at this point because I have no SPY trades in mind at the moment.  Asia was higher and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on tonights market action. 

Monday, November 06, 2017

The Dow managed a 9 point gain to begin the week on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending lower.  Not much to say about todays price action.  We traded in a pretty narrow range all day.  Not much on the economic data front this week so we will probably just trade off of the technicals.  We're still overbought on the big cap stock indices.  GE was flat on the session on heavy volume and came off of its highs.  We should get the dividend announcement a week from today.  That is when I'll decide on whether to try the longer term calls here or not.  I'm leaning towards attempting this trade though.  Gold rose over a dozen on the futures today as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was better than it has been.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The rally continues, the trend is up and I'd simply expect the higher prices to keep coming.  There has been nothing to stop this market and that should simply continue.  Unless we get some negative headline out of the blue, I'd expect the new all time highs to just keep coming.  There's really nothing else to say.  I haven't traded the SPY in a while and with the changing of my trading brokerage account still in a funk, I don't expect that to change anytime soon.  We've also been very overbought there for weeks on end.  When the technical signals don't work, it's probably a good idea to sit things out until they do.  You certainly don't want to turn this into a guessing game.  You at least want to have something in your favor.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Friday, November 03, 2017

The Dow rose 23 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues to move lower.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow probably due to the gains in AAPL.  The employment report came and went with no real effect on things.  We sold off early and then just resumed the climb.  The technical conditions haven't changed.  Overbought both short and medium term and staying that way for weeks.  I have no clue how much longer this will go on but it will end eventually.  A lower summation index without lower prices is probably bullish.  However I'm still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY.  GE was up 20 cents on heavy volume.  It almost made it to ten days in a row lower.  I'm still waiting for the dividend cut to purchase the longer term calls.  It shouldn't be long now.  I do think there could be some more tax loss selling in December though.  I may have to rethink this idea.  Gold lost $7 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Still short term oversold here.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  When I'm feeling mentally tired, I usually make mistakes.  Sitting things out for now.  Earnings are winding down, we've got the jobs report out of the way, the new Fed chief has been announced and we've seen Trumps tax plan.  My thinking is, what's left to drive things higher?  At some point we've got to see some selling just to get the indicators out of the overbought zone for most of the major stock indices.  The RUT and the TRAN are some of the ones not in the overbought zone on a short term basis at the moment.  Along with the NYA, which also has the contracted Bollinger bands.  A lot of the time the RUT is the leader and if so this time around we should see some weakness overall pretty soon.  But it hasn't happened yet.  I suppose I should just be thankful I'm not laddering the SPY puts again.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend.  However at this juncture I'm in a more of a wait and see mode.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll get to fall back over the weekend but for now it's time for a rest.

Thursday, November 02, 2017

The market just keeps on going as the Dow gained 81 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index is still heading lower but for some reason that hasn't mattered.  Overbought again and staying that way.  It appears that there is nothing that will stop the rally.  The new Fed chief was announced and we got the first details of the new tax plan.  We rally no matter what the news.  We'll get the jobs numbers tomorrow.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow but that doesn't mean much lately as well.  It is a curious market indeed.  GE was off a few cents but did come off of the lows of the session.  It closed below $20 today  Gold and the US dollar were little changed.  Perhaps waiting for the employment report.  The XAU and GDX were little changed as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  After tomorrows payroll announcement I just don't know what's left to inspire the market.  Overbought readings on the indicators, the summation index traveling lower and still we don't even see any sustained decline.  It's as if it's a teflon market and has been for quite some time.  I'm remaining on the sidelines for now.  When the indicators don't work anymore, it's the best I can do.  I'm still considering the longer term GE calls once they cut the dividend.  That could occur on the 13th at the shareholders meeting.  I'll be keeping an eye on it.  Asia was mixed and Europe mostly lower last night.  We'll get the market reaction to the jobs report and finished up the week tomorrow. 

Wednesday, November 01, 2017

More drift higher as the Dow gained 57 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still trending lower.  The small stocks were under performers today.  The economic data released was mixed.  There were no surprises from the Fed.  We'll get Trumps pick for the new Fed head tomorrow.  The big cap indices remain short term overbought.  The small stocks are as well with the exception of the RUT.  I'm still on the sidelines for trading the SPY for now.  GE was off another 1/8 or so and the volume remains extremely heavy.  Very oversold here and staying that way.  Waiting on the dividend cut.  Gold rose $5 on the futures and the US dollar had a gain as well.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Bollinger bands have tightened dramatically on the NYA which implies a big move coming one way or the other.  The short term technical indicators here appear to be turning up.  The implication is that we will see another leg higher for the rally that has lasted all year already.  The Bollinger bands are tightening on the RUT as well.  So I think we're about to see something in the market but I cannot predict which way things will go.  Perhaps the employment report will be the catalyst.  There was a terrorist attack in NYC yesterday and the market appears to have shrugged it off.  Like all bad news this year, the market just isn't affected.  We'll see how long this will last.  The story tomorrow should be the announcement of the new Fed chair.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Drifting higher to end the month as the Dow gained 28 points on pretty good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  The economic data today was in line or better than expected.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up again.  Some of the small stock indices have broken out to new highs.  So perhaps the overall market will follow.  The summation index is trending lower but stocks are not following.  We'll see what happens after the Fed announcement tomorrow.  GE dropped 1/4 on the same extremely heavy volume.  I'm still waiting for the dividend cut.  Gold was off $5 on the futures.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU was down 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was light.  We are short term oversold for the gold shares and gold.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  October was another positive month for the Dow and we are within striking distance of new all time highs.  We are however, pretty overbought on the medium term indicators.  We're also overdue for some type of pullback beyond the small drops we've seen so far this year.  Will something happen before the end of the year?  I certainly don't know.  We're in a favorable seasonal time period for the market but that doesn't mean we can't drop.  Earnings have been pretty solid overall so far.  It perhaps will take some kind of news event to send stocks lower.  But you cannot fight the trend and the trend is definitely higher.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what the Fed has to say and how November begins tomorrow.

Monday, October 30, 2017

A bit lower to begin the week as the Dow fell 85 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I'm not exactly sure what is going on right now but we are still overdue for a decline.  There was no follow through to the strong session on Friday.  Plenty of data and news this week so we'll have to see how things play themselves out.  End of the month tomorrow.  GE just keeps falling and dropped over 1/3 today.  Volume remains extremely heavy.  I'm still considering the longer term calls here.  Gold added $5 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Rates dropped today and that was supportive for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The rally seems to have stalled here for now.  We've also seen a pick up in volatility which sometimes means that the trend is about to come to an end.  We'll know more for sure in the coming days.  We've also got political news coming out of Washington to deal with.  Whether it's the Russian probe or the tax reform, it should provide some market movement.  Plus we've got the Fed this week and the announcement of the next head of the Fed.  So there is a lot for the market to digest this week.  It should be interesting to say the least.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll finish up the month of October tomorrow.

Friday, October 27, 2017

It's a rally that just won't die.  The Dow added 33 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still heading down.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ soaring.  Whatever bearish candlestick patterns that were forming on the weekly charts were wiped out.  It's off to the races again for stocks.  We're still in a parabolic rise as far as I'm concerned but I certainly have no idea when it will end.  It will end badly though in my mind.  That's how it usually goes.  But for now it's still up, up and away.  GE is just the opposite.  It lost another 1/2 on very heavy volume again.  Perhaps my idea of the longer term calls is a waste of time.  Because if this stock can't rally when the market is in a bull run, when can it?  Gold rose five bucks and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The GDP report can in pretty good but the buck didn't do much.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on OK volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Although it looked like this was finally going to be a week to the downside, everything turned right back around today.  It is an incredible run.  We're also in a very positive seasonal time period form now until March of next year.  Just how much higher can we go?  With no overhead resistance, I can't really answer that question.  We are still pretty far away from the 50 day moving average on the S&P 500 daily chart.  I thought this week was the beginning of a move that would at least take us back there.  But it was not to be.  Perhaps just stepping aside from this freight train is the smartest idea yet.  Well I suppose I at least figured that out after laddering up and losing all those SPY trades in the beginning of the month.  But the market rolls on and so does the trading.  Plenty of economic data due next week capped off by the jobs report on Friday.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual and hope to come up with a new idea.  Europe and Asia were mostly higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, October 26, 2017

A mixed bag today as the Dow gained 71 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is heading lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ negative.  Where we go from here is important because it will give us a clue as to whether this is going to actually be a decline or simply some sideways digestion.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major stock averages.  We'll get the first reading on 3rd quarter GDP tomorrow and it should be a market mover one way or the other.  I have no SPY trades in mind here and the brokerage change that I recently had to endure lives on.  Chucky baby Schwab is lame.  GE lost another 18 cents on heavy volume.  Will the selling ever stop here?  Gold lost $11 on the futures as the US dollar rose a full point.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was good.  Gold should continue to fall here as the US dollar has just broken above resistance.  The daily dollar chart appears to have an inverse head and shoulders pattern on it.  The neckline was violated today.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  This could possibly be the first week in quite some time that the market doesn't have a gain.  If so, we'd now also have a bearish candlestick pattern possibly in place on the weekly charts as well.  Hasn't happened yet but it is something that bears watching.  I'm still considering the longer term GE calls but will wait for the dividend cut.  I'm not sure what I'll do there is there is no dividend cut.  The game is in a continual state of flux.  We'll see what the GDP number has to say and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher last night.  We'll close out the week of trading tomorrow.

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

Some selling pressure today but we did come up off of the lows.  The Dow fell 112 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index has rolled over and is heading lower.  The bearish candlestick pattern on the daily SPY chart is coming to fruition.  We should at the least see some sideways price action here if not a decline.  The constant short term extremely overbought condition is coming to an end.  There's support at 2500 for the S&P 500 but that is pretty far from here.  But we could easily get there because the run up has been steep.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume remains very heavy.  I'm still looking at the longer term calls here.  The idea is to still wait for the announcement of a dividend cut.  Gold was pretty much flat on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on better volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Most major stock indices came up off of their lows today so perhaps the decline may abate for the time being.  That's a guess as usual.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over.  We are still pretty far above the 50 day moving averages for most indexes.  I would think that the decline can at least get that far.  But who knows?  The rally has been much longer than I thought to begin with.  The VIX spiked up today but finished well off the highs.  At any rate we're seeing a change in the bullish tone of the market so we'll have to keep an eye on that.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  We'll see how markets react to todays US sell off overnight.

Tuesday, October 24, 2017

The Dow continues its climb as it gained 167 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trying to roll over.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  Good earnings are providing the fuel higher at this point.  The fact that the Dow is once again leading the way is usually a late stage event in a rally.  But you cannot argue with price and there remains no overhead resistance.  The small stocks are not leading the way here either and that is really what you'd like to see.  GE lost 3/8 on very heavy volume.  The selling simply continues here.  I'll wait for the dividend cut to take a longer term call position here.  My guess is that the slashing of the dividend would be the final blow.  There will however probably be some more tax selling in December.  Gold fell a couple bucks and the US dollar was slightly higher again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses again on light volume.  No big movement in the metals market lately.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The Dow set a new all time high today but all the other major averages lagged.  Conditions remain extremely overbought and I really don't know how long this can go on.  The usual October volatility has yet to appear.  The bearish engulfing pattern remains in place on the daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500.  That implies some sideways action at the least, if not some type of drop.  So we'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out.  Europe and Asia were slightly positive overnight with the exception of the Hang Seng once again.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Monday, October 23, 2017

Lower for a change to begin the week as the Dow fell 54 points on almost average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is trending sideways but that could change here soon.  No real news today but we've been overbought for so long that some kind of downside action is way past due.  We do now have a bearish engulfing pattern on the SPY daily candlestick chart.  So we'll see where we go.  GE fell back 1 1/2 on the same very extremely heavy volume that we saw on Friday.  I am looking at the longer term calls here and now am pretty sure that will be my next trade.  I think that the ideal scenario would be to purchase them the day that GE cuts its dividend but I have no idea when that will be.  Rumor has it that it could be at an analysts meeting on November 13th.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures, while the US dollar ended little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much on the economic data front this week with the exception of GDP on Friday.  The VIX had a small spike up today and that is a shift from what we've seen lately.  All selling has been met with buying lately so we'll have to see what happens tomorrow.  It's too early to tell if an actual short term top is in.  But it's possible.  Europe and Asia were both higher with the exception of the Hang Seng.  We'll see what happens tomorrow. 

Friday, October 20, 2017

This is what a blow off top looks like as the Dow climbed 165 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still basically moving sideways.  The overall market was higher but not as much as the Dow.  I don't know how long this will last but it is interesting to watch.  Shorts continue to get squeezed and the beat goes on.  I cannot explain why the market is acting as it is but you just cannot argue with price.  No overhead resistance is another factor in the rally.  No real news to speak of as the rally feeds on itself.  We'll see how far we can go and it's usually further than anyone expects.  GE opened lower and closed higher.  It gained 1/4 on incredibly massive volume.  Probably some short covering here as well.  Getting the calls early today would already show a nice profit.  The weekly chart now looks bullish and any move back down towards 22 could be the time to try the longer term calls.  Gold dropped $8 on the day as the US dollar was stronger.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  The dollar and gold are acting in tandem now with the usual inverse relationship.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  The rally is taking on a life of its own.  Any hint of selling is met with buyers.  I'm really beginning to wonder just how far this thing will go.  Expiration week is over so we'll have to see how things progress from here.  Earnings have been OK so far and as long as that holds up the sky's the limit.  I wouldn't chase anything here because as I have said before this probably won't have a happy ending.  I could be wrong but I really do not think so.  In my view this is the fifth and final leg up from the rally that began in March of 2009.  I don't know how far it will go but I do think that it will be the end of the bull market.  Time will tell on that.  Not a lot of data out next week but we will get the first look at 3rd quarter GDP.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight but certainly not as much as the US.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Thursday, October 19, 2017

The market opened 100 points lower today and fought all the way back.  The Dow rose 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely higher.  The summation index continues in a sideways direction.  This seems to be a market that just does not want to go down.  The selling was met with plenty of buying.  I can't explain it but you cannot fight it.  We'll just have to see how high we go here before the inevitable drop.  There's still no overhead resistance and there's still no end in sight.  GE was up about 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Perhaps somebody knows about the earnings ahead of time.  I still think GE is a good candidate for the longer term calls.  Gold was up $8 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's been quite a run for stocks as we've been overbought for weeks.  The technical indicators are as blown out as I can remember seeing.  Just as things got out of control years ago with the huge decline, we are seeing the opposite today.  And the rallies usually last longer than the declines.  So I don't exactly know how high we're going to go here.  But it won't be pretty when it ends.  I really don't think that the market has even sucked in the public yet.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.  Asia was mixed, with the Hang Seng getting clobbered.  Europe was lower.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.    

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

The Dow took off today and rose 160 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index continues to track sideways.  Good earnings news from IBM fueled the rally.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow and that is a warning sign.  But we have seen warning signs for weeks and yet we haven't seen even a hint of a decline.  I'll say it again, when this ends it will be badly.  The straight up nature of the rise almost predicts its eventual failure.  But we'll enjoy the ride for now.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  This is one stock that hasn't participated in the rise.  Maybe that will change with its earnings on Friday, maybe not.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Usually when the Dow leads things higher we're near the end of a move higher.  And it certainly led things up today.  That doesn't mean we can't go higher.  But as the rally continues unabated to the upside with no pause, it just makes the inevitable drop that much more volatile.  That's my opinion but I've seen it happen before.  However I don't know when it will occur now.  There's still no overhead resistance and there aren't any sellers.  Extremely overbought on all time frames day after day.  It won't end well.  But again, I don't know where the end is.  Well at least I stopped laddering up on the SPY puts a couple of weeks ago.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the markets overnight.

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

The Dow crossed 23000 for the first time today and closed just shy of that round number.  It gained 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trending sideways.  Breadth is not confirming the rise here and the overall market has been weaker than the Dow for the past couple of sessions.  That hasn't meant anything for quite some time now.  Overbought and extremely so but we're in a practically straight up move for now.  When it ends is still a guessing game.  GE was off over 1/8 on heavy volume.  Gold dropped $15 on the futures.  The US dollar was a bit higher once again but not so much that a $15 drop in gold would occur.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The story continues with simply higher prices for the stock market, overbought conditions, no overhead resistance and no end in sight.  The positive option expiration week bias seems to be in effect as well.  The month of October generally sees some volatility and we haven't experienced that yet either.  There's not much else to report.  When the technical indicators don't work anymore, there is nothing more to do except wait until they do.  Normally we do not stay overbought for weeks on end.  I'll simply have to remain on the sidelines for now.  Asia was slightly higher and Europe slightly lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday, October 16, 2017

More of the same today as the Dow gained 85 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index continues to trend sideways.  Overbought, upward bias and no overhead resistance.  I keep repeating myself but the conditions have remained this way for weeks on end.  I still believe that we're in the midst of a blow off top that will eventually reverse and the decline should be swift.  But as to when this occurs is anyones guess.  Earnings season is upon us and that will probably be the market mover going forward.  GE was up 1/3 or so on heavy volume.  We'll get the earnings here on Friday.  Gold dropped $7 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Option expiration week is here and we're already seeing the usual positive bias.  It appears that there's nothing that will derail this rally right now.  It has shook off whatever bad news that has come up and there are no sellers.  So we'll enjoy the ride for now.  We'll get the Feds beige book on Wednesday but otherwise it's a light week for data.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Friday, October 13, 2017

Just another day in the marketplace as the Dow rose 30 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The data came in about as expected and the market drifted lower in the final couple of hours.  Option expiration week is coming up and I'll expect the positive bias to show up for stocks.  The VIX remains low and there appears to be nothing in the way of higher prices.  RUT has underperformed lately and that will be something to keep an eye on.  But unless we get something out of the blue, I'd still expect higher prices going forward.  GE was off a few cents with the volume getting back to normal.  Oversold here both short and medium term.  Gold rose almost $10 to finish back above $1300.  The US dollar was little changed at the close.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There looks to be a short term negative divergence in the daily RSI indicator for the major stock averages.  Whether or not this leads to some near term weakness remains to be seen.  This market has consistently stayed short term overbought for weeks.  The indicators haven't worked as you would expect.  I still think this is the final speculative blow off before we see something more protracted to the downside.  But I've though that for a while.  I'm still on the sidelines for now.  The transfer of my trading account to a new broker is still having problems.  You would think that in this day and age something like that would be seamless.  But Charles Schwab can't even get streaming charts and quotes right.  In due time I suppose but I will be shopping around for another online broker.  Back to the market themselves and earnings season is upon us.  We'll have to see what kind of surprises turn up there.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  However with just a week left in the October option cycle, I do not anticipate any SPY trades right now.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

A bit lower today as the Dow fell 31 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is heading sideways.  Not sure if this is the beginning of the long awaited drop but we'll see.  Not a lot of news today but the retail stocks along with the major banks took a hit.  We're still short term overbought on all the major stock indices with any metric that you choose.  October has a history of volatility and there is still plenty of time in the month for some excitement.  So we'll see.  I'll repeat that there is no overhead resistance for now.  GE was off a couple cents but the volume remains way above average.  I'm still considering the longer term calls here.  Gold added $7 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX were both little changed on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's been an uneventful week so far for stocks.  We'll get retail sales and the CPI tomorrow.  The political headlines have been quiet along with the geo-political rhetoric.  The VIX remains below 10.  Unless we get hit with something out of the blue, you've got to keep looking for higher prices.  Not much else to report at the moment.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night.  We'll finish out the week tomorrow.   

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Another day another new all time high as the Dow rose 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Nothing new to report.  Just another day of overbought conditions with no sellers.  The Fed beige book was a yawn.  The RUT appears to be rolling over but it could also just be a pause before we move up there again as well.  The VIX remains below 10.  I don't have any trades in the works.  I'm on the sidelines for now after my last great idea to ladder up on the SPY October puts and we all know that didn't go as planned.  GE was off over 1/4 again and the volume was extremely heavy.  There's talk now of perhaps cutting the dividend.  That would be the final nail in the coffin for GE I think and the ideal time to perhaps try the longer term calls there.  Gold was flat on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's been a quiet October so far but that probably won't last for the whole month.  October can often times be quite volatile so we'll have to see what happens from here.  We are still in the condition of no overhead resistance so the sky remains the limit.  I am getting sell signal readings from numerous indicators that I keep track of but we haven't even seen a hint of a sell off.  At some point that will change but until then it's simply more of the same.  None of the sell signals for the SPY have worked lately and I'll be simply stepping aside until we see a more reasonable market.  Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Back to the upside today as the Dow added 69 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  Still very overbought but I've been saying that for weeks now.  We'll just have to see how high we go before we drop.  No overhead resistance and nothing to say that a decline is imminent other than the extremely overbought conditions.  Perhaps we'll just run things up until the October expiration.  GE was down a few more cents on very heavy volume.  Eventually this stock will sell itself out but when is the question.  Gold rose $5 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were both fractionally lower on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So where do we go from here?  I don't have any trades in mind at the moment.  With the brokerage problems that I'm experiencing at the moment, that's probably a good thing.  My belief is that we're in a speculative upside blow off top that will not end well.  That's usually the case if my idea of the blow off is correct.  I don't know when it will end and exactly what will set things off.  But I do believe that it will happen.  Perhaps it will be the upcoming earnings that sets things off or maybe a geo-political event.  Or something completely out of the blue.  So let's enjoy the rally while it lasts.  Asia was higher and Europe generally lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.  

Monday, October 09, 2017

We begin the week a bit lower on this semi-holiday as the Dow shed 12 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is beginning to move sideways.  The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow.  We're still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  Inflation data and retail sales out this week along with the Feds beige book.  I'm not sure any of these will be real market movers but you never know.  I'm on the sidelines for now.  GE got pounded today on very heavy volume.  This stock lost almost a full point on extremely heavy volume.  Somebody resigned from the company and somebody else was placed on the board of directors.  Neither of these developments warrants the price action today.  I still like the longer term calls here but couldn't buy them if I wanted to.  More on that later.  Gold rose over $10 on the futures, while the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Why can't I purchase the GE longer term calls.  Well actually I could but not on the trading platform that I usually use.  My account at options express has moved over to Charles Schwab today and it's a disaster.  The real time quotes and charts at Schwab don't work.  The usual technical difficulties excuse on the first day of school.  Mind you they had months and weeks and days to get ready for this.  But they can't handle it and that is disconcerting for a trader such as myself.  The quotes and charts are basics to trading.  Options express had a very easy and clear way to look at things on a daily and intra-day basis.  I'm now stuck with Charles Schwab who obviously is in over their heads.  We'll see how it plays out.  The RUT looks like it rolled over today and if so we'll have to see what happens form here on out.  RUT led us up and perhaps it will now do the opposite.  All phases of the US markets will be back open tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were generally higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action.

Friday, October 06, 2017

Just a slight pause today as the Dow dropped a little over a point on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were a bit shy of being 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still trending up but today could get it to start to move sideways.  We did see some selling today but it wasn't sustained.  We are still overbought and staying there.  The employment report showed a loss of jobs for a change but it was assumed to be weather related.  The market has taken on a life of its own here.  I'm really hearing too much bullish talk in the media lately despite the huge rise.  More than overdue for a drop.  GE was off over 1/8 and the volume picked up a little.  I'm still considering the January calls here but GE has been a laggard during this rally.  It may also see some end of the year tax selling as well.  Gold was only up $4 on the weak jobs report and the US dollar had a slight loss.  The XAU and GDX had minor fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was a week of trading losses for me as my strategy of laddering up the strike price on the SPY October puts was a failure.  I'll be stepping aside for the rest of the October option cycle as of now.  Things could change but we've had a sell signal for days on end and it hasn't worked.  We're in a speculative bullish run up and there's no telling how long it will last.  I won't exactly be surprised when it ends but trying to predict it is fruitless for me at this point.  I was among the shorts that got squeezed.  It's really back to the drawing board for me.  I'll probably wait until the market gets back to a more normal situation and the indicators return to working as they should.  For now we'll enjoy the ride up.  Asia was higher and Europe a bit lower last night.  It's the first Friday in October and time for a break.

Thursday, October 05, 2017

The rally lives on and picks up steam as the Dow gained 113 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Overbought to the extreme at this point.  I was stopped out of the final SPY October put trade for another roughly 30% loss.  My line of thinking for these trades just was not the right one.  Despite being overbought for days the market just climbed higher.  This is a speculative blow off top in my opinion.  How much further that it goes is up for debate.  But it won't last forever.  That said, there is no overhead resistance and we are hitting new all time highs each session.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold was down six bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling tired as I did not sleep well again.  The employment report is due out tomorrow and that should be the near term driver of prices.  RUT has stalled recently so perhaps we'll get a pause in the rally soon.  But the truth is the market will go where it wants.  This overbought rally is a good example of that.  I'll have to stay on the sidelines for now as the recent string of losses has got my confidence to a low level.  A short pot here today as I'm not feeling well either.  Europe and Asia were both generally higher last night.  We'll close out the week tomorrow. 

Wednesday, October 04, 2017

A little bit higher today as the Dow added 20 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index continues higher.  The rally lives on as we remain overbought and continue to stay that way.  We are still way overdue for at least some profit taking but there is no overhead resistance.  The shorts continue to get squeezed and that includes me.  My SPY October call position is showing a loss.  I'll probably get stopped out of this as well but it's my last attempt at this trade.  The small losses begin to add up.  GE dropped 1/3on average volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a touch lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It has been a pretty nice move higher and there is no end in sight right now.  The VIX remains under 10.  There are no sellers.  Even the slightest daily decline has been bought.  The RUT continues to lead the way higher although it was down very slightly today.  Tomorrow should be a waiting game on the jobs report due Friday.  I really don't see anything to stop the trend higher.  My strategy to move up on the put strike prices was a failure.  I actually could not have picked a worse time to do that.  The market can remain overbought longer than you can remain solvent.  Live and learn.  I still think that this is a blow off top if you just look at the straight line up in RUT since the middle of August.  It usually doesn't end well.  We'll see what happens this time.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed yesterday.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

The juggernaut rolls on as the Dow gained 84 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  It sounds like a broken record but there is nothing stopping this market at the moment.  I was stopped out of my SPY put trade again for another 30% loss and I rolled into the next strike price again.  The 30% loss is getting to be like a broken record as well.  This is the classic example of where a market can stay more overbought than a trader can remain solvent.  Not a lot of money involved here but the losses are starting to pile up.  My fear is that the moment I abandon this idea is when we will start to drop.  However we are so stretched right here that if this trade doesn't work now I'll be throwing in the towel.  Perhaps the jobs number on Friday will be a downside catalyst.  That's more of a hope than anything else.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  It looks like GE has plenty of room to go higher here and perhaps the bottom has been put in.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU was up about a point and GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are way overextended in the major stock averages and a sell signal is in place.  However we just keep climbing higher.  It's quite a blow off and probably has more room to go at this rate.  My strategy to keep moving up the strike price for the SPY puts here is wrong.  Hence, today is the last day that I'll try it.  There really is no telling how high this thing will go before falling back to earth.  I do believe though, that when we start to drop it will be on the same trajectory as the rise.  That is usually how it goes.  But when we actually fall is unknown.  Europe and Asia were both higher as we have a worldwide rally taking place.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday, October 02, 2017

The Dow soared today and finished up by 152 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  the summation index is moving up.  I was stopped out of my SPY October put position for around a 30 % loss.  I once again moved to the next strike price and this position is showing a loss.  This will probably be my last attempt at this idea because it hasn't worked yet.  What we are seeing here is most likely the blow off top that happens every once in a while.  Where it ends is just a guess and that is what my problems is here.  Overbought, staying that way and no sign of slowing down to the upside.  There is no overhead resistance.  The small losses that I'm taking don't make up for the fact that I probably should not even be trying these trades.  However when the market turns down after one of these straight up moves, it usually comes straight back down.  GE came back to life and was up over 1/3 on good volume.  Gold was slightly lower on the futures as the US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on average volume.  mentally I'm feeling tired as I did not sleep well.  The month has started with a bang for the bulls as the rally just keeps on going.  The RUT remains strong and that is a plus.  However the stock indices are even more overbought that usual here and some kind of pause is past due.  I don't know what the catalyst will be for some downside but it will show up sooner or later.  My stubbornness in continuing to try the SPY puts has cost me some money here.  However when there's a definite sell signal in place, you've got to give it a shot.  The negative divergence on the weekly SPY chart is still place as well.  So we'll see if this SPY trade works out.  Not looking good now.  Europe and Asia were mostly higher overnight but not as much as the Dow.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Friday, September 29, 2017

The beat goes on as the Dow climbed in the final half hour to finish the day with a gain of 23 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that's a positive.  I once again sold my SPY October puts for a loss and rolled into a higher strike price.  The loss today was 22%.  My new position in the SPY puts is showing a slight loss.  Overbought and staying that way for the major averages.  Perhaps my thinking is just wrong here and the market may be trying to tell me that.  Or maybe I'm just married to this idea and won't let it go.  My trading tactics and management are OK but it doesn't matter if the underlying premise is wrong.  I'm going to have to look things over again this weekend and decide if just sitting out from here is the way to go.  Small losses do add up.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  Gold fell $6 on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU fell a point and GDX lost twenty cents.  Volume was pretty light here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I've done more trading this week than I usually do in a month.  Perhaps I'm losing my patience.  The weak seasonal period hasn't produced any legitimate decline.  My thinking is that we may simply keep heading higher from here and squeeze the shorts some more.  That would not help my cause.  I think that if this current SPY put position gets stopped out that I'll simply step aside.  A lot of what I look at is flashing sell signs but the market refuses to drop.  With no overhead resistance this could be the speculative blow off top that we are seeing form now.  That's a guess as usual.  But you cannot deny that overbought seems to mean nothing here.  I'll just have to look at things over the weekend and hope some rational thought enters my mind.  Perhaps my ears are deaf to listening to what the market is saying here.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

Thursday, September 28, 2017

The market is in a drift as the Dow gained 40 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Not much to trade off of here lately as there have been no economic surprises one way or the other.  I did finally get stopped out of my SPY October put trade today for a 30% loss.  I also did roll into a higher strike price and my order was filled at the end of the day.  Although I don't know about the wisdom of this trade.  We are short term overbought on the technical indicators for the S&P 500 but I do think that there could be a bit more room to the upside.  The market break that I've been expecting in this option cycle just isn't happening.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  I'm still keeping an eye on things here.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 7/8 and GDX added a little over 1/8.  Volume was pretty light though suggesting that there isn't any interest here for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The loss on the SPY today was easier to digest than others.  I stuck to the plan and the trade just did not work out.  There was a brief chance for a small profit at one point.  I'm not sure if rolling into basically the same position is the right idea but I'm still worth giving it another try.  The market will go where it wants to though.  There's a chance that we'll be on hold until the jobs report in a week.  If that's the case I'll probably be stopped out again.  The Dow was stronger than the overall market today but the strength in RUT is definitely a positive.  Perhaps I'm just barking up the wrong tree here.  We could see a short covering rise from here too.  Europe and Asia were mostly up overnight.  We'll watch the overnight action and close out the week, month and quarter tomorrow.

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Higher today as the Dow rose 56 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow but I don't know if this qualifies for the move expected from the McClellan oscillator signal.  My SPY October puts were almost stopped out today.  Another positive session like today and they will be.  The RUT soared today and that is a plus for the bulls.  It looks like a valid breakout there.  Perhaps my thinking is wrong here again.  The short term technical indicators for the small stocks have turned back up.  Perhaps we'll see a short squeeze tomorrow.  GE was off a bit over 1/2 on heavy volume.  Perhaps I'll get another shot at the longer term calls there.  Gold dropped $15 on the futures as the US dollar continues to rise.  Rates have started to rise and that is not a plus for gold.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX lost 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm still feeling tired due to not sleeping well lately.  Perhaps this is the beginning of the speculative blow off top.  That's a guess as usual and I have nothing to back it up except the breakout in RUT.  The VIX has come back down and what is usually a weak seasonal time period hasn't produced the decline as expected.  There is still a lot of time left in the October option cycle but the way things are going it feels more like a breakout is about to occur rather than a breakdown.  I'm still considering moving to a different strike price if I do get stopped out tomorrow.  We'll probably see end of the month and quarter market moves in the next two days as well.  I'll consider what action to take for tomorrow as I watch the overnight SPX futures.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

We tried and failed to rally a couple times today and the Dow finished off by 11 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow but not by much.  My theory of higher prices in the beginning of the week didn't happen.  But we are due for some kind of bounce in my opinion.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal yesterday for a decent move within the next 2 days.  That means if the signal is valid it will be tomorrow.  The short term technical indicators are trying to curl back up.  My SPY October puts are about where I bought them.  GE was off about 20 cents on OK volume.  Gold dropped almost $15 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed 1 1/2, while GDX lost 1/2 on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough.  The market is trying to figure out what to do here.  I'm sold on the idea that we're going to roll over here.  However the RUT just broke through its resistance and closed above 1450.  It has led the way many times in this bull market.  The other small stock indices have rolled over though.  But the TRAN is strong here as well.  So it really is a mixed picture and you can make a case for both ways.  We are in a seasonally weak period but haven't seen any meaningful decline.  We have yet to even see a 5% correction this year in the Dow.  There's plenty of time in the October option cycle and I plan on holding this trade until it gets stopped out or I take the profit.  Europe and Asia were mixed last night with minor moves.  We'll see if we get the big move implied by the oscillator signal on Wednesday. 

Monday, September 25, 2017

Lower today as the Dow fell 53 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading up.  I still expect some strength early this week and probably tomorrow will be the start.  The market did try to sell off the morning but we got a little near term oversold.  My October SPY puts are right where I bought them despite the recent lower prices.  As I've said, if the trade gets stopped out I will simply try it again.  The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 looks like a hammer, which implies higher prices coming tomorrow.  the short term technical indicators have rolled over but not decidedly so.  GE was up 1/4 on good volume and is now bucking the trend and showing good relative strength.  Perhaps the ideal time for the January calls here has passed by.  I'm still keeping an eye on it.  Gold rose $16 on the futures today despite a rise in the US dollar.  More geo-political tension over the weekend and a lower market are probably the cause.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX was up 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling a little tired.  The Dow was off over 125 or so early in the session but made a decent comeback.  We should go higher in the near term is my view.  Perhaps after a small rally we'll begin to see the downside that I'm actually looking for.  There was a chance today to sell my position with a small profit but I'm preferring to wait.  There will be some economic data out this week but nothing major unless there is a big surprise in the numbers.  We'll get the end of the month as well.  Asia was mixed and Europe mostly lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on what develops tonight.      

Friday, September 22, 2017

More hanging around today as the Dow fell 9 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus for the bulls.  The RUT is right at the resistance of 1450.  I'm thinking that we'll get some strength early next week which would produce some kind of short squeeze higher.  Unfortunately I'd be getting squeezed this time around since I'm holding the SPY October puts.  They are still showing a small loss.  Once again, if I do get stopped out I'll try this trade again.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold was up five bucks on the futures and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose a point and GDX added 1/4.  Volume was light.  Short term oversold on the technical indicators for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still 4 weeks to go in the October option cycle with plenty of time.  I do think that there's a chance of another run up in the near term.  However I'm also just as convinced that we'll see some type of drop during this option cycle.  The potential RSI negative divergence is still there on the S&P weekly chart.  Plus the volume here lately has been very weak and that is never a positive for higher prices.  But like I said, that doesn't rule out another bounce higher to run in the shorts.  However we've got the VIX below 10 and that won't last the entire time left in the October option cycle either.  My strategy is already in place and I'll be ready to adjust if necessary.  I'll reassess after looking over the details on the charts this weekend.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher last night.  It's the first day of autumn and the end of the week.  Time for a break.

Thursday, September 21, 2017

A bit lower today as the Dow fell 53 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving higher.  We bounced around for much of the session in lower territory and extended the losses in the final half hour.  I don't think that this is the start of a big decline because I am looking for some strength at the beginning of next week.  My SPY October puts are still showing a slight loss.  I'm not exactly sure what to do with this position but will probably hold it over the weekend.  We're still short term overbought on the big cap indices.  The smaller stock indicators have already rolled over.  GE is moving up and gained 3/8 on good volume.  We've broken a short term down trend line that's been in effect since June.  I'll be looking for the longer term calls on a drop back to the recent low.  Gold sunk over $20 on the futures and has dropped below $1300.  It appears that gold reacted to the Fed today.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we dropped a little today but it hasn't helped my SPY put options.  That is the effect of the time decay which makes options trading a challenge.  I'm still convinced that we'll see some type of decline in the October option cycle at some point.  Again, if this position gets stopped out, I'll try it again.  Perhaps in the middle of next week.  RUT has yet to break through the resistance at 1450.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher but not by much.  A really lackluster response to the Fed.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.   

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

We attempted a sell off today but the market refused to go down as the Dow gained 41 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The Dow dropped to down around 50 points after the Fed but then came all the way back.  I think we could go a bit higher near term but really are overdue for some decline.  My SPY October puts are showing a small loss.  If this trade gets stopped out, I will simply try it again at a higher strike price.  My work suggests some strength at the beginning of next week.  Perhaps trying the puts again then will be the next idea depending on what happens the rest of this week.  I do feel that at some point the SPY October puts will be where you want to be.  GE was up 1/8 on good volume.  I will be trying the longer term calls here at some point.  Gold was off $6 on a stronger US dollar after the Fed.  The XAU dropped 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure what the next catalyst for market movement will be from here.  Still overbought and staying that way.  Perhaps we'll see the speculative blow off top.  But that's just a guess.  The TRAN had a good day and RUT is about to make a new all time high.  If the small stocks get going here and break to new highs as well it will be rally mode all around.  It will be interesting to see if RUT climbs above 1450.  That's the level to watch in my mind for now.  Otherwise it appears that I'm early on the SPY October puts here.  We did not get the sustained sell off from the Fed that I had anticipated.  Managing the trade from here is the task at hand.  Perhaps I'll bail out before the weekend and look to reestablish the position next week.  It's something to consider.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how the market digests the Fed overnight.       

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Another day of waiting on the Fed as the Dow rose 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to head higher.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal last night for a big move in the next two trading sessions.  If the signal is valid we'll see some movement one way or the other tomorrow.  We remain short term overbought for all the major stock indices.  I still think tomorrow could go either way despite the overbought condition.  However I did purchase some SPY October puts today.  My original open order wasn't filled so I canceled it and went with a closer strike price and less money at risk.  The stop loss order is in.  If we do rally from here, I will try this idea again in a few days.  GE dropped 1/4 on good volume.  Trying to find a bottom here?  Who knows?  Gold rose a few bucks and the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough.  So the next trade is in.  Plenty of time for this to work but tomorrow will probably tell the story if there will be a profit or not.  There is really nothing out there that says we're on the verge of a huge decline.  However we are overbought, have been and are overdue for at least some downside in the near term.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it for now.  It could all change tomorrow.  I will say that there are potential negative RSI divergences on the weekly chart for the S&P along with some other big cap stock averages.  So we'll see.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight.  We'll watch what happens tonight and check out the markets reaction to the Fed tomorrow. 

Monday, September 18, 2017

More new highs as the Dow gained 63 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The market may be on hold until we get the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  We're still short term overbought and staying that way.  Things technically could go either way after the Fed despite the short term overbought status.  I did place an open order for the SPY October puts this morning but it wasn't filled.  I've left it in overnight but may change my mind by the open tomorrow.  There's a chance that the small caps could break to the upside here and then we'd be off to the races.  There's no overhead resistance once we get above where we are now on the small caps.  It's either that or we have some kind of double top put in.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today.  GE was up 1/2 on good volume.  If GE can finally get something going to the upside, that would paint a bullish picture as well.  Gold fell $14 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was about average.  Gold seems to have lost some of its luster as rates in the US have ticked higher.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose that I'm convinced that the weak seasonal pattern for the stock market is about to show up here.  That combined with the overbought condition of the market at the moment are two reasons to look at the puts here.  The light volume is another.  My hope is that we'll see one more attempt at new all time highs.  That would be the ideal time to try the SPY puts in my mind.  But we know the market rarely cooperates and there's the possibility that we have some kind of blow off top first as well.  As with any trade, there's always some risk.  However getting short in here at the moment seems to present less risk than getting long.  We'll have to see how things go tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Friday, September 15, 2017

The beat goes on as the Dow added 64 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were decidedly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Some indices are breaking out to new all time highs and the small stocks look to be on the verge of doing so.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought.  It appears as though there isn't anything in the way of higher prices.  I'm still looking at the SPY October puts but I don't want to be married to this idea.  We are in a seasonally weak time period but that hasn't meant anything yet.  GE lost about a dime on heavy volume.  Gold shed $5 despite another threat from North Korea.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Getting short term oversold for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I guess how high will we go here is the question.  An extra week on the October options, so the premiums are pricey.  It would be hard for me to go long here because we're already very short term overbought and have stayed that way.  However there could be another short squeeze on the way and I would not like to be stuck in that.  We've got the Fed next week and it may be tough to take a position ahead of that as well.  I'm going to have to reassess my ideas at the moment and try to come up with a viable game plan.  There is really no way to tell how much longer the market will climb but it certainly won't last forever.  Todays positive action could also just have been expiration related as well.  I'll have plenty to think about over the next couple of days.  I'll go over all the charts and try to figure out what to do.  Asia up and Europe down in last nights trade.  It's Friday afternoon nearing the end of summer and time for a break.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

A mixed bag today with the Dow higher and the overall market lower.  The most watched index rose 45 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The S&P along with the NASDAQ were lower, with the small stocks getting the worst of it.  This underlying weakness could spell trouble going forward and I am kind of counting on it.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought for the major averages.  We'll s get retail sales tomorrow and we'll see how the market reacts.  GE was up fifteen cents on good volume.  Gold rose five bucks on a lower US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on about average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report today.  I'm letting this week go by and then hopefully getting some SPY October puts next week.  We've got option expiration tomorrow and the Fed coming up next week.  I'm not expecting nay surprises from the Fed but you never know.  We remain overbought with the small stocks kind of stalling here.  The VIX is oversold at the moment and it appears to me that we are at least trying to set up for something lower in the near term.  But I could be wrong and often am.  What I would like to see is a light volume levitation from here going into the close on Monday.  The market rarely cooperates.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see how we close out the week with the expiration tomorrow.  

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Another day of hanging around as the Dow gained 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  We hung around for most of the day and got a slight pop in the final half hour.  No overhead resistance and the expiration week positive bias remains in effect.  I'm going to let this week pass and then try the SPY October puts early next week if the market cooperates.  GE rose 20 cents on good volume.  Gold dipped another $5 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  Has the dollar put in some kind of bottom here?  Time will tell on that.  The XAU dropped 1 3/4, while GDX shed almost 1/2.  Volume was light.  Gold is at the uptrend line that started in the beginning of July so we're at a short term moment of truth.  The short term technical indicators here have rolled over.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Not much new to report.  The major stock indices are still short term overbought and staying that way.  What I would like to see is a negative RSI divergence for the S&P that would set up the put trade.  But something like that would take time to develop and it is no sure thing that it would happen at all.  I will wait until next week to try something as the October options have an extra week in them anyway.  Premiums are high.  Plus as I already said before, we could get a speculative upside blow off.  That would be hard to try and trade.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

We got some follow through today as the Dow gained 61 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading up.  There doesn't appear to be anything in the way of higher prices.  No overhead resistance for the S&P and the small stocks are on the cusp of breaking out as well.  The Dow is just about ready to set a new all time high as well.  The positive expiration week bias is in effect.  I'm going to try and be patient on getting some SPY October puts.  I think that the beginning of next week would be the ideal time scenario.  GE was up almost 20 cents on good volume.  Is this the bottom for GE?  We've asked that numerous times in the past three months.  The gold futures and the US dollar finished flat on the session.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like all systems are go for even higher prices going forward.  Unless we get a shock out of the blue, the path of least resistance is up.  The shorts have been squeezed and they might get that treatment again this week.  Inflation  data coming up and then retail sales on Friday.  The volume has been light in the past two sessions so I'm not deterred on my idea of the October puts.  I do however not want to be early on this trade.  I think we could get strength going into the end of the week so I'm holding off on doing anything until early next week.  I could be wrong but I do not see any imminent decline for stocks here.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight as well.  We'll keep an eye on the evening trading action.   

Monday, September 11, 2017

A blast to the upside to start the week as the Dow exploded for a gain of 259 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  North Korea has now cooled down and we rallied despite a devastating hurricane hitting Florida.  Short term overbought and staying that way.  The shorts got squeezed today and that was something that I was hoping for.  We hit new all time highs today for the SPY and it looks like there's more to come this week.  This is the potential set up for the SPY October puts in my mind.  I may purchase them at the end of the week.  GE did not participate in the rally and lost a dime on good volume.  If a huge rally in the overall market can't get this stock going, I don't know what will.  Gold dropped today and the US dollar gained.  The gold futures fell twenty bucks for its biggest one day drop in a while.  The XAU shed two points, while GDX lost 2/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like we are in a break out rally now as we'll see how many of the major indices follow the SPY to new highs.  I'm thinking that the positive expiration bias will remain in effect through Friday.  We may need to digest todays gains first before moving forward.  I'm still a believer in the SPY October puts and view this as run up before we see some legitimate downside.  I could be wrong.  We are however in a weak seasonal period.  The only thing that would change my mind here is if the RUT went to a new all time high.  It is lagging here and since it's usually the forerunner it's something to keep an eye on.  However I don't want to be married to the SPY October put idea because there's always the chance that this could be the speculative market upside blow off.  If that is the case we'll see a lot higher prices before a drop.  The game is never easy.  The overseas market saw good rallies overnight.  We'll see if the global rise has follow through tomorrow. 

Friday, September 08, 2017

We closed out the week with a whimper as the Dow added 13 points on lighter than average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is still moving up.  It looks like things are setting up to move higher in the near term according to one of the indicators that I look at.  We do have expiration week and its usual positive bias coming up.  I don' think that I'll be trying a short term trade next week but if the signal does show up I just might.  But I am still medium term bearish and do consider the SPY October puts as a better trade going forward.  GE was off another 20 cents on good volume.  I'd really like to get the January calls here but if the market does drop in the next few weeks it will most likely take GE with it.  Gold finished flat on the session and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU dropped around 1 1/2, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've got another hurricane to deal with over the weekend along with whatever happens with North Korea celebrating an anniversary.  Not much economic data early next week so it's hard to see what the market will take its cues from.  I might see a buy signal from one of my indicators but the majority of the short term technical readings are still overbought.  So it isn't exactly a clear picture going forward.  I'll probably err on the side of caution but that may change after going over everything again this weekend.  Nobody is looking for a move to new all time highs but there's a chance that could happen as well.  The market has been known to stay short term overbought for an extended time.  Plenty to ponder in the coming days.  Asia was lower with the exception of the Hang Seng, while Europe was basically flat in last nights trade.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Not much on the market front today as the Dow lost 22 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still moving higher.  Pretty much running in place today but we did see some buying near the close.  I think that I'll let tomorrow pass and then look to get the October SPY puts sometime next week if there is a legitimate signal.  Still short term overbought for most of the major indices.  We've got option expiration week coming up.  GE broke to fresh new lows and shed 7/8 on heavy volume.  I guess somebody at JP Morgan doesn't like the stock.  I'm still favoring the January calls here if I can buy them at the right time.  Gold found a bid as the US dollar dropped.  The precious metal futures rose almost $15.  The XAU was up almost two points, while GDX added over 1/2.  Volume was average.  Now there was a missed trade in the gold share calls that I truly regret.  However the markets don't care about what you missed or what you made.  You've just got to keep going on in this game.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired again, did not sleep enough.  I thought that retail sales would be out tomorrow but it's actually next Friday.  We are kind of in a data void for a few days until inflation numbers in the middle of next week.  I don't see anybody stepping up to the plate to do any major buying ahead of the weekend but I could be wrong.  I suppose I'd like to see a short squeeze to raise prices higher and give me a chance to buy the October puts.  But that is just wishful thinking.  We're still at the mercy of the next headline out of North Korea.  Or Washington.  For now I'll be patient and wait for the weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow. 

Wednesday, September 06, 2017

A bounce back today but we did sell off in the final half hour.  The Dow gained 54 points on a bit less than average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving higher.  No follow through yet to yesterdays decline.  The short term indicators are still in the overbought zone.  I'm still of the thought that we will be heading lower over time.  It is just a matter of where to try the SPY puts for me at this point.  Heading to the October option cycle is what I'm considering.  However there is an extra week in that option cycle and the premiums are high.  I don't anticipate any more trades for the September cycle.  GE was up 16 cents on heavy volume.  Gold was off five bucks today as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU lost a buck, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  So where do we go from here?  We've got retail sales data due out on Friday and that could be a market mover.  We are still at the mercy of headline risk.  There is an event in North Korea over the weekend that could produce more fear.  So I doubt that there will be a lot of buying ahead of that.  We won't even consider the next headline out of Washington for now.  Technically we're more overbought than anything else at the moment.  So some more decline isn't out of the question.  I suppose that I'm hoping for sideways action into the expiration and then we'll take it from there.  But the market always goes where it wants and rarely cooperates with my ideas lately.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye out on the developments tonight.    

Tuesday, September 05, 2017

We finally got a sell off today as the Dow fell 234 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading up but another day like today could change that.  The overall market didn't drop as much as the Dow and that's a plus.  More tension over the weekend about North Korea as the geo-political issues surface again for the market.  Well the puts I sold for a loss on Friday would have been profitable today.  However placing the stop loss order was the prudent thing to do and I'll be doing it again from now on.  I will not chase the market lower here but I will be looking at the SPY October puts going forward.  GE was off over 1/3 and the volume was good.  I'm still looking at the January calls here.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU added around 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  Money continues to be coming into gold and gold related assets but we are short term overbought here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A rough beginning to a shortened trading week as traders return from summer vacation.  The rally up into Friday did have light volume so it isn't a surprise that we are backing off.  Whether or not this is the beginning of something real remains to be seen.  We're at the mercy of headline risk again and that isn't an easy kind of market to trade.  I'll simply wait for the next technical signal and take it from there.  Right now the short term indicators have turned down but there is no clear signal one way or the other.  We did get a spike in volatility today but have come off of the highs there for the day.  One day doesn't make a trend so we'll see where we go from here.  I'm of the belief that we are way overdue for some kind of sell off but the timing of such an event remains uncertain.  Again, I'll wait for a decent signal and hopefully act accordingly unless events prove other wise.  Asia was mixed and Europe mostly lower  overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

Friday, September 01, 2017

The rally lives on as the Dow rose 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Short term overbought now for the major stock indices.  The employment data was soft but the market moved higher anyway.  That's what I mean when I say the market has the feel of wanting to go higher.  The data doesn't matter even if it isn't positive because it will be viewed as positive regardless.  I got stopped out of the SPY September put trade for a loss of 33%.  I might try this trade again next week, which is what I should have done in the first place.  GE was up over fifty cents on heavy volume.  Finally some buyers have showed up here.  Any pullback from here is the chance to get the longer term calls in my mind.  That could be my next trade as well.  Gold rose $8 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Gold and the gold shares have had a nice run for the past couple of months and will be due to take a rest here shortly.  That will be the time to decide whether to try the calls there or not.  I will try not to chase it here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite todays trading loss.  That was a mistake that didn't feel right from the start.  The actual trade to make was getting the SPY calls on the open after the North Korean missile launch.  That was a technical set up that I chose to ignore because I was so focused on doing the put trade.  There's a chance the SPY put trade can still work next week.  But there is also the distinct possibility that the market runs up to new all time highs in the September option cycle before we actually see a meaningful decline.  The small stocks are leading the way here and that's bullish.  We'll have to see how things go when all the players return next week.  The volume going higher here hasn't been good.  I'll have a long holiday weekend to figure out my next move.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  It's a hot Friday summer afternoon and time for a break.