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Monday, September 25, 2017

Lower today as the Dow fell 53 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading up.  I still expect some strength early this week and probably tomorrow will be the start.  The market did try to sell off the morning but we got a little near term oversold.  My October SPY puts are right where I bought them despite the recent lower prices.  As I've said, if the trade gets stopped out I will simply try it again.  The daily candlestick chart for the S&P 500 looks like a hammer, which implies higher prices coming tomorrow.  the short term technical indicators have rolled over but not decidedly so.  GE was up 1/4 on good volume and is now bucking the trend and showing good relative strength.  Perhaps the ideal time for the January calls here has passed by.  I'm still keeping an eye on it.  Gold rose $16 on the futures today despite a rise in the US dollar.  More geo-political tension over the weekend and a lower market are probably the cause.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX was up 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling a little tired.  The Dow was off over 125 or so early in the session but made a decent comeback.  We should go higher in the near term is my view.  Perhaps after a small rally we'll begin to see the downside that I'm actually looking for.  There was a chance today to sell my position with a small profit but I'm preferring to wait.  There will be some economic data out this week but nothing major unless there is a big surprise in the numbers.  We'll get the end of the month as well.  Asia was mixed and Europe mostly lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on what develops tonight.      

Friday, September 22, 2017

More hanging around today as the Dow fell 9 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus for the bulls.  The RUT is right at the resistance of 1450.  I'm thinking that we'll get some strength early next week which would produce some kind of short squeeze higher.  Unfortunately I'd be getting squeezed this time around since I'm holding the SPY October puts.  They are still showing a small loss.  Once again, if I do get stopped out I'll try this trade again.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was good.  Gold was up five bucks on the futures and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose a point and GDX added 1/4.  Volume was light.  Short term oversold on the technical indicators for gold and the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still 4 weeks to go in the October option cycle with plenty of time.  I do think that there's a chance of another run up in the near term.  However I'm also just as convinced that we'll see some type of drop during this option cycle.  The potential RSI negative divergence is still there on the S&P weekly chart.  Plus the volume here lately has been very weak and that is never a positive for higher prices.  But like I said, that doesn't rule out another bounce higher to run in the shorts.  However we've got the VIX below 10 and that won't last the entire time left in the October option cycle either.  My strategy is already in place and I'll be ready to adjust if necessary.  I'll reassess after looking over the details on the charts this weekend.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher last night.  It's the first day of autumn and the end of the week.  Time for a break.

Thursday, September 21, 2017

A bit lower today as the Dow fell 53 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving higher.  We bounced around for much of the session in lower territory and extended the losses in the final half hour.  I don't think that this is the start of a big decline because I am looking for some strength at the beginning of next week.  My SPY October puts are still showing a slight loss.  I'm not exactly sure what to do with this position but will probably hold it over the weekend.  We're still short term overbought on the big cap indices.  The smaller stock indicators have already rolled over.  GE is moving up and gained 3/8 on good volume.  We've broken a short term down trend line that's been in effect since June.  I'll be looking for the longer term calls on a drop back to the recent low.  Gold sunk over $20 on the futures and has dropped below $1300.  It appears that gold reacted to the Fed today.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So we dropped a little today but it hasn't helped my SPY put options.  That is the effect of the time decay which makes options trading a challenge.  I'm still convinced that we'll see some type of decline in the October option cycle at some point.  Again, if this position gets stopped out, I'll try it again.  Perhaps in the middle of next week.  RUT has yet to break through the resistance at 1450.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher but not by much.  A really lackluster response to the Fed.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.   

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

We attempted a sell off today but the market refused to go down as the Dow gained 41 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The Dow dropped to down around 50 points after the Fed but then came all the way back.  I think we could go a bit higher near term but really are overdue for some decline.  My SPY October puts are showing a small loss.  If this trade gets stopped out, I will simply try it again at a higher strike price.  My work suggests some strength at the beginning of next week.  Perhaps trying the puts again then will be the next idea depending on what happens the rest of this week.  I do feel that at some point the SPY October puts will be where you want to be.  GE was up 1/8 on good volume.  I will be trying the longer term calls here at some point.  Gold was off $6 on a stronger US dollar after the Fed.  The XAU dropped 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm not sure what the next catalyst for market movement will be from here.  Still overbought and staying that way.  Perhaps we'll see the speculative blow off top.  But that's just a guess.  The TRAN had a good day and RUT is about to make a new all time high.  If the small stocks get going here and break to new highs as well it will be rally mode all around.  It will be interesting to see if RUT climbs above 1450.  That's the level to watch in my mind for now.  Otherwise it appears that I'm early on the SPY October puts here.  We did not get the sustained sell off from the Fed that I had anticipated.  Managing the trade from here is the task at hand.  Perhaps I'll bail out before the weekend and look to reestablish the position next week.  It's something to consider.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how the market digests the Fed overnight.       

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Another day of waiting on the Fed as the Dow rose 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to head higher.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal last night for a big move in the next two trading sessions.  If the signal is valid we'll see some movement one way or the other tomorrow.  We remain short term overbought for all the major stock indices.  I still think tomorrow could go either way despite the overbought condition.  However I did purchase some SPY October puts today.  My original open order wasn't filled so I canceled it and went with a closer strike price and less money at risk.  The stop loss order is in.  If we do rally from here, I will try this idea again in a few days.  GE dropped 1/4 on good volume.  Trying to find a bottom here?  Who knows?  Gold rose a few bucks and the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep enough.  So the next trade is in.  Plenty of time for this to work but tomorrow will probably tell the story if there will be a profit or not.  There is really nothing out there that says we're on the verge of a huge decline.  However we are overbought, have been and are overdue for at least some downside in the near term.  That's my story and I'm sticking to it for now.  It could all change tomorrow.  I will say that there are potential negative RSI divergences on the weekly chart for the S&P along with some other big cap stock averages.  So we'll see.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight.  We'll watch what happens tonight and check out the markets reaction to the Fed tomorrow. 

Monday, September 18, 2017

More new highs as the Dow gained 63 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The market may be on hold until we get the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  We're still short term overbought and staying that way.  Things technically could go either way after the Fed despite the short term overbought status.  I did place an open order for the SPY October puts this morning but it wasn't filled.  I've left it in overnight but may change my mind by the open tomorrow.  There's a chance that the small caps could break to the upside here and then we'd be off to the races.  There's no overhead resistance once we get above where we are now on the small caps.  It's either that or we have some kind of double top put in.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today.  GE was up 1/2 on good volume.  If GE can finally get something going to the upside, that would paint a bullish picture as well.  Gold fell $14 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8.  Volume was about average.  Gold seems to have lost some of its luster as rates in the US have ticked higher.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose that I'm convinced that the weak seasonal pattern for the stock market is about to show up here.  That combined with the overbought condition of the market at the moment are two reasons to look at the puts here.  The light volume is another.  My hope is that we'll see one more attempt at new all time highs.  That would be the ideal time to try the SPY puts in my mind.  But we know the market rarely cooperates and there's the possibility that we have some kind of blow off top first as well.  As with any trade, there's always some risk.  However getting short in here at the moment seems to present less risk than getting long.  We'll have to see how things go tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Friday, September 15, 2017

The beat goes on as the Dow added 64 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were decidedly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Some indices are breaking out to new all time highs and the small stocks look to be on the verge of doing so.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought.  It appears as though there isn't anything in the way of higher prices.  I'm still looking at the SPY October puts but I don't want to be married to this idea.  We are in a seasonally weak time period but that hasn't meant anything yet.  GE lost about a dime on heavy volume.  Gold shed $5 despite another threat from North Korea.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Getting short term oversold for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I guess how high will we go here is the question.  An extra week on the October options, so the premiums are pricey.  It would be hard for me to go long here because we're already very short term overbought and have stayed that way.  However there could be another short squeeze on the way and I would not like to be stuck in that.  We've got the Fed next week and it may be tough to take a position ahead of that as well.  I'm going to have to reassess my ideas at the moment and try to come up with a viable game plan.  There is really no way to tell how much longer the market will climb but it certainly won't last forever.  Todays positive action could also just have been expiration related as well.  I'll have plenty to think about over the next couple of days.  I'll go over all the charts and try to figure out what to do.  Asia up and Europe down in last nights trade.  It's Friday afternoon nearing the end of summer and time for a break.

Thursday, September 14, 2017

A mixed bag today with the Dow higher and the overall market lower.  The most watched index rose 45 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  The S&P along with the NASDAQ were lower, with the small stocks getting the worst of it.  This underlying weakness could spell trouble going forward and I am kind of counting on it.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought for the major averages.  We'll s get retail sales tomorrow and we'll see how the market reacts.  GE was up fifteen cents on good volume.  Gold rose five bucks on a lower US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on about average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much else to report today.  I'm letting this week go by and then hopefully getting some SPY October puts next week.  We've got option expiration tomorrow and the Fed coming up next week.  I'm not expecting nay surprises from the Fed but you never know.  We remain overbought with the small stocks kind of stalling here.  The VIX is oversold at the moment and it appears to me that we are at least trying to set up for something lower in the near term.  But I could be wrong and often am.  What I would like to see is a light volume levitation from here going into the close on Monday.  The market rarely cooperates.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see how we close out the week with the expiration tomorrow.  

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Another day of hanging around as the Dow gained 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  We hung around for most of the day and got a slight pop in the final half hour.  No overhead resistance and the expiration week positive bias remains in effect.  I'm going to let this week pass and then try the SPY October puts early next week if the market cooperates.  GE rose 20 cents on good volume.  Gold dipped another $5 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  Has the dollar put in some kind of bottom here?  Time will tell on that.  The XAU dropped 1 3/4, while GDX shed almost 1/2.  Volume was light.  Gold is at the uptrend line that started in the beginning of July so we're at a short term moment of truth.  The short term technical indicators here have rolled over.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Not much new to report.  The major stock indices are still short term overbought and staying that way.  What I would like to see is a negative RSI divergence for the S&P that would set up the put trade.  But something like that would take time to develop and it is no sure thing that it would happen at all.  I will wait until next week to try something as the October options have an extra week in them anyway.  Premiums are high.  Plus as I already said before, we could get a speculative upside blow off.  That would be hard to try and trade.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday, September 12, 2017

We got some follow through today as the Dow gained 61 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading up.  There doesn't appear to be anything in the way of higher prices.  No overhead resistance for the S&P and the small stocks are on the cusp of breaking out as well.  The Dow is just about ready to set a new all time high as well.  The positive expiration week bias is in effect.  I'm going to try and be patient on getting some SPY October puts.  I think that the beginning of next week would be the ideal time scenario.  GE was up almost 20 cents on good volume.  Is this the bottom for GE?  We've asked that numerous times in the past three months.  The gold futures and the US dollar finished flat on the session.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like all systems are go for even higher prices going forward.  Unless we get a shock out of the blue, the path of least resistance is up.  The shorts have been squeezed and they might get that treatment again this week.  Inflation  data coming up and then retail sales on Friday.  The volume has been light in the past two sessions so I'm not deterred on my idea of the October puts.  I do however not want to be early on this trade.  I think we could get strength going into the end of the week so I'm holding off on doing anything until early next week.  I could be wrong but I do not see any imminent decline for stocks here.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight as well.  We'll keep an eye on the evening trading action.   

Monday, September 11, 2017

A blast to the upside to start the week as the Dow exploded for a gain of 259 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  North Korea has now cooled down and we rallied despite a devastating hurricane hitting Florida.  Short term overbought and staying that way.  The shorts got squeezed today and that was something that I was hoping for.  We hit new all time highs today for the SPY and it looks like there's more to come this week.  This is the potential set up for the SPY October puts in my mind.  I may purchase them at the end of the week.  GE did not participate in the rally and lost a dime on good volume.  If a huge rally in the overall market can't get this stock going, I don't know what will.  Gold dropped today and the US dollar gained.  The gold futures fell twenty bucks for its biggest one day drop in a while.  The XAU shed two points, while GDX lost 2/3.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like we are in a break out rally now as we'll see how many of the major indices follow the SPY to new highs.  I'm thinking that the positive expiration bias will remain in effect through Friday.  We may need to digest todays gains first before moving forward.  I'm still a believer in the SPY October puts and view this as run up before we see some legitimate downside.  I could be wrong.  We are however in a weak seasonal period.  The only thing that would change my mind here is if the RUT went to a new all time high.  It is lagging here and since it's usually the forerunner it's something to keep an eye on.  However I don't want to be married to the SPY October put idea because there's always the chance that this could be the speculative market upside blow off.  If that is the case we'll see a lot higher prices before a drop.  The game is never easy.  The overseas market saw good rallies overnight.  We'll see if the global rise has follow through tomorrow. 

Friday, September 08, 2017

We closed out the week with a whimper as the Dow added 13 points on lighter than average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is still moving up.  It looks like things are setting up to move higher in the near term according to one of the indicators that I look at.  We do have expiration week and its usual positive bias coming up.  I don' think that I'll be trying a short term trade next week but if the signal does show up I just might.  But I am still medium term bearish and do consider the SPY October puts as a better trade going forward.  GE was off another 20 cents on good volume.  I'd really like to get the January calls here but if the market does drop in the next few weeks it will most likely take GE with it.  Gold finished flat on the session and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU dropped around 1 1/2, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've got another hurricane to deal with over the weekend along with whatever happens with North Korea celebrating an anniversary.  Not much economic data early next week so it's hard to see what the market will take its cues from.  I might see a buy signal from one of my indicators but the majority of the short term technical readings are still overbought.  So it isn't exactly a clear picture going forward.  I'll probably err on the side of caution but that may change after going over everything again this weekend.  Nobody is looking for a move to new all time highs but there's a chance that could happen as well.  The market has been known to stay short term overbought for an extended time.  Plenty to ponder in the coming days.  Asia was lower with the exception of the Hang Seng, while Europe was basically flat in last nights trade.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Not much on the market front today as the Dow lost 22 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still moving higher.  Pretty much running in place today but we did see some buying near the close.  I think that I'll let tomorrow pass and then look to get the October SPY puts sometime next week if there is a legitimate signal.  Still short term overbought for most of the major indices.  We've got option expiration week coming up.  GE broke to fresh new lows and shed 7/8 on heavy volume.  I guess somebody at JP Morgan doesn't like the stock.  I'm still favoring the January calls here if I can buy them at the right time.  Gold found a bid as the US dollar dropped.  The precious metal futures rose almost $15.  The XAU was up almost two points, while GDX added over 1/2.  Volume was average.  Now there was a missed trade in the gold share calls that I truly regret.  However the markets don't care about what you missed or what you made.  You've just got to keep going on in this game.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired again, did not sleep enough.  I thought that retail sales would be out tomorrow but it's actually next Friday.  We are kind of in a data void for a few days until inflation numbers in the middle of next week.  I don't see anybody stepping up to the plate to do any major buying ahead of the weekend but I could be wrong.  I suppose I'd like to see a short squeeze to raise prices higher and give me a chance to buy the October puts.  But that is just wishful thinking.  We're still at the mercy of the next headline out of North Korea.  Or Washington.  For now I'll be patient and wait for the weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow. 

Wednesday, September 06, 2017

A bounce back today but we did sell off in the final half hour.  The Dow gained 54 points on a bit less than average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving higher.  No follow through yet to yesterdays decline.  The short term indicators are still in the overbought zone.  I'm still of the thought that we will be heading lower over time.  It is just a matter of where to try the SPY puts for me at this point.  Heading to the October option cycle is what I'm considering.  However there is an extra week in that option cycle and the premiums are high.  I don't anticipate any more trades for the September cycle.  GE was up 16 cents on heavy volume.  Gold was off five bucks today as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU lost a buck, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  So where do we go from here?  We've got retail sales data due out on Friday and that could be a market mover.  We are still at the mercy of headline risk.  There is an event in North Korea over the weekend that could produce more fear.  So I doubt that there will be a lot of buying ahead of that.  We won't even consider the next headline out of Washington for now.  Technically we're more overbought than anything else at the moment.  So some more decline isn't out of the question.  I suppose that I'm hoping for sideways action into the expiration and then we'll take it from there.  But the market always goes where it wants and rarely cooperates with my ideas lately.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye out on the developments tonight.    

Tuesday, September 05, 2017

We finally got a sell off today as the Dow fell 234 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading up but another day like today could change that.  The overall market didn't drop as much as the Dow and that's a plus.  More tension over the weekend about North Korea as the geo-political issues surface again for the market.  Well the puts I sold for a loss on Friday would have been profitable today.  However placing the stop loss order was the prudent thing to do and I'll be doing it again from now on.  I will not chase the market lower here but I will be looking at the SPY October puts going forward.  GE was off over 1/3 and the volume was good.  I'm still looking at the January calls here.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU added around 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  Money continues to be coming into gold and gold related assets but we are short term overbought here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A rough beginning to a shortened trading week as traders return from summer vacation.  The rally up into Friday did have light volume so it isn't a surprise that we are backing off.  Whether or not this is the beginning of something real remains to be seen.  We're at the mercy of headline risk again and that isn't an easy kind of market to trade.  I'll simply wait for the next technical signal and take it from there.  Right now the short term indicators have turned down but there is no clear signal one way or the other.  We did get a spike in volatility today but have come off of the highs there for the day.  One day doesn't make a trend so we'll see where we go from here.  I'm of the belief that we are way overdue for some kind of sell off but the timing of such an event remains uncertain.  Again, I'll wait for a decent signal and hopefully act accordingly unless events prove other wise.  Asia was mixed and Europe mostly lower  overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

Friday, September 01, 2017

The rally lives on as the Dow rose 39 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Short term overbought now for the major stock indices.  The employment data was soft but the market moved higher anyway.  That's what I mean when I say the market has the feel of wanting to go higher.  The data doesn't matter even if it isn't positive because it will be viewed as positive regardless.  I got stopped out of the SPY September put trade for a loss of 33%.  I might try this trade again next week, which is what I should have done in the first place.  GE was up over fifty cents on heavy volume.  Finally some buyers have showed up here.  Any pullback from here is the chance to get the longer term calls in my mind.  That could be my next trade as well.  Gold rose $8 on the futures and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Gold and the gold shares have had a nice run for the past couple of months and will be due to take a rest here shortly.  That will be the time to decide whether to try the calls there or not.  I will try not to chase it here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK despite todays trading loss.  That was a mistake that didn't feel right from the start.  The actual trade to make was getting the SPY calls on the open after the North Korean missile launch.  That was a technical set up that I chose to ignore because I was so focused on doing the put trade.  There's a chance the SPY put trade can still work next week.  But there is also the distinct possibility that the market runs up to new all time highs in the September option cycle before we actually see a meaningful decline.  The small stocks are leading the way here and that's bullish.  We'll have to see how things go when all the players return next week.  The volume going higher here hasn't been good.  I'll have a long holiday weekend to figure out my next move.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  It's a hot Friday summer afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 55 points on better volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that is a plus.  Getting short term overbought but the market still has the feel of wanting to go higher.  My open order for the SPY September puts was filled this morning and is already showing a loss.  I'm early on this trade and should have simply canceled this order in the previous two days.  I have at least placed the stop loss order here, so at least I did that right.  The volume was better today and that is another plus for the bulls.  GE was up 1/4 or so on very good volume.  Perhaps GE will finally get things turned around here.  I'm looking out to the January calls here.  Gold was back up a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU rose 2 points, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  I did like the longer term calls here over a month ago but fiddles around with the order too much and missed this move.  It seems that my tactics have not been right over this summer so far.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, not sleeping good as of late.  So I'm in the next trade and already not liking it.  It appears we're heading to new all time highs as the small stocks are leading the way here.  The only thing that would change that scenario would be a sell off on the employment report tomorrow.  I don't see that happening.  I will probably be stopped out of the SPY put trade tomorrow on any upside move.  The RUT isn't near its all time high but the NASDAQ is just about there.  It looks like it will be back to the drawing board for me.  In retrospect, waiting until after Labor day to attempt any kind of put trade would have been the best strategy.  I thought about it but did not follow through on that consideration.  The volume on this rally has been light until today.  With the summation index now heading higher, the path of least resistance is up.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed overnight.  Whatever traders are at their desks will await the unemployment report in the morning.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.  

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Moving up today as the Dow gained 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  This should turn the summation index back up but not decidedly so.  The Dow didn't tell the whole story though as the overall market was much stronger.  Short term down trend lines have been broken to the upside on many indices now.  Are we on our way back to new time highs?  Could be but the volume here is thin and I never trust light volume rallies.  There was a case to be made for a short term rally and we're in one now.  But all the players will be back next week and we'll see what transpires then.  GE fell over 1/8 on average volume.  Here's a stock that nobody wants to own at the moment.  Gold dropped $5 on the futures which wasn't bad considering the rise in the US dollar.  A strong revision to the GDP report helped the dollar along.  The XAU shed 1 1/4, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I still have in my open order for the SPY September puts.  This may not be the right idea as the market still has the feel of wanting to go higher.  However we are getting short term overbought on some of the stock indices and the seasonality still favors the downside.  But I may simply cancel this order and wait until next week as well.  I haven't yet made up my mind.  End of the month tomorrow and that may bring in some volatility.  The employment report on Friday is really the next thing to trade off of.  Again, I'm not exactly sure what to do here but we'll be getting a short term sell signal rather soon if we keep on moving up.  The RUT led the way down and it's now leading the way up.  The down trend line for the S&P 500 moved to the 2450 level and we got through there today.  There's some resistance at 2470 and that is perhaps the level to try the puts now.  That's a guess as usual.  Europe and Asia were both up last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.    

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

A one day reversal to the upside today as we opened much lower and closed with again.  Back and forth motion lately with no real progress made either way.  The Dow gained 57 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The summation index is trending sideways.  We opened over 100 points down on some more North Korea angst.  But the market turned around and recovered but the volume remains thin.  I did adjust my open order for the SPY September puts but I am still considering just canceling this trade.  Perhaps waiting until after Labor day is the better strategy.  GE lost a few cents and the volume was light.  I'm still looking at the January calls here.  Gold was up early but dropped back to unchanged on the futures.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  The US dollar was a bit higher today.  GDP revision tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market had every reason to sell off today but came back.  That's bullish price activity.  The technical indicators on the S&P 500 remain mid-range though.  The RUT is acting well now though and might be the leader going higher in the near term.  However we did break the longer term uptrend line here going back to the beginning of 2016.  This move higher here could just be a snap back to the broken trend line.  If that is the case we will be rolling over again.  I can make a case for a very short term rally here for the market based on some of my indicators.  But with the lack of traders in this week any move is suspect.  The sidelines are not a bad to be for now.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Monday, August 28, 2017

Another one day reversal to the downside but it was of the mild variety.  The Dow fell 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is trying to turn around and is moving sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus.  Trying to digest the effects of hurricane Harvey is one of the questions for the market.  Thin volume is another dilemma.  The RUT is acting better here and that could lead the market higher in the near term.  I still have in my open order for the SPY September puts but this trade could be canceled at any time.  I think the market wants to go higher here but without volume any rally would be suspect.  GE was off a couple cents on light volume.  Gold broke above $1300 today and continues to draw interest.  The precious metal futures were up $17 as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU gained 3 1/3, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was heavy which is a strong positive considering it's the summer.  The breakout for gold and the gold shares is for real and has room to go.  I did miss the ideal entry point for the longer term calls here but I'm considering just jumping on board.  Price and volume are usually a winning combination.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just trying to get the last week of summer out of the way at this point.  We do have the jobs numbers on Friday along with the end of the month on Thursday.  Plus a GDP revision on Wednesday.  So there will be a lot of information but not a lot of traders.  This makes for skewed trading.  The best course of action may just be inaction.  However if things line up just right here there will be a trading signal generated this week.  hasn't happened yet.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye out on any overnight developments.  

Friday, August 25, 2017

The day began with a promising start as the Dow was up over 100 points early.  It faded however and finished the day with a gain of 30 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  The market action in the final hour this week has been filled with selling, which isn't a positive sign.  That said, it does have the feel of a market that wants to eventually go higher as the advance/declines have been positive lately and do not show the sign of a breakdown happening anytime soon.  I do still have in the open order for the SPY September puts but will have to consider other paths over the weekend.  GE was up about 20 cents on light volume.  Gold was up $4 on the futures as the US dollar sank.  Gold has not rallied as much as you would expect with the weakness of the US dollar for quite some time.  Not sure what that means but it isn't a bullish scenario.  The XAU and GDX were mixed with small moves one way or the other on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Today was a summer session to be sure with not a lot of volume.  Will it be another week of this?  Probably.  The RUT has broken its accelerated short term downtrend line but there is not a lot of conviction there.  Perhaps this is a snap back on the weekly chart there but that's just a guess at this point.  The S&P 500 has yet to get back to the 2465 level and that is the shorting point for me.  I'd like to see some upside there into Tuesday or Wednesday to try the September puts.  But that's just a wish at this point because the market is a thinly traded void right now.  We do have the employment report to deal with in a week on Friday.  I'd like to take a position ahead of that if possible.  I'll have to double check everything over the weekend as sitting on the sidelines until after Labor day is a possibility as well.  Never easy in the game and the battle is usually with myself.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are about mid-range at the moment.  So you can see that a clear signal is not evident.  Asia was higher and Europe a touch lower in last nights trade.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

Thursday, August 24, 2017

Another day of hanging around as the Dow fell 28 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still trending down.  We opened higher and closed lower for a one day downside reversal.  I'm still waiting to purchase some SPY September puts but will wait until next week to see if the market cooperates.  My open order is in but we'll need to see a rise in order to get filled.  I am trying to remain patient.  GE lost a few cents and continues it s downward spiral.  Gold was off a couple bucks and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Light volume and not a lot of action would describe todays trading.  It's the end of summer and the market is behaving like it.  There's no sense in trying to create things here.  We'll just have to let the market meander for now until we get some direction.  The VIX has calmed down for now.  I'm looking at the beginning of next week to enter the SPY puts if we see some strength between now and then.  If not, I'll have to look for something else.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight with no major activity.  We'll close out the week tomorrow. 

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

Bouncing around today with a sell off in the final half hour as the Dow fell 87 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  I'm not exactly sure of what to make of todays action but I'm still in the camp for lower prices sooner or later.  I'm also still looking for a move up to 2465 on the S&P 500 to buy the September puts.  Hopefully the market will cooperate.  Light volume here as a lot of the players are still on vacation.  I'll remain patient for now but I do still have in the open order on the SPY.  GE was off 20 cents on average volume.  I'm still looking at the longer term calls here.  Gold gained $5 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  The gold shares continue to be firm here but they are short term overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, not enough sleep.  I think the next couple of days will be important and I'd keep an eye on the RUT.  If it breaks above its short term down trend line, that would be a positive in the short term for the overall market in my view.  It would also help with setting up the SPY September put trade that I'd like to try.  So I'll be watching that very closely in the next two sessions.  If we keep heading lower here, then the market is weaker than I give it credit for at this time.  We are in a seasonally weak time period.  The market is also thinly traded at the moment and that presents other challenges as well.  Tread carefully but if a signal come up, take it.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tonight. 

Tuesday, August 22, 2017

Quite a bounce today as the Dow blasted higher by 196 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower but not with the same velocity.  Another positive session could turn the summation index around.  I thought we were just going to hang around this week but that is not the case.  I did place an open order for the SPY September calls but it will take more positive price action to get filled.  The level to watch in my mind is 2465 for the S&P.  Getting short there is the plan for now unless we somehow just burst through there.  I'd really just like to see things move sideways to higher into early next week.  GE was up about 1/8 on average volume.  Gold lost $5 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still pretty sure that getting the SPY puts for September is the way to go here but I don't want to be early.  The RUT has led the way down and it looks like it is about to break its steep downtrend line to the upside.  If that occurs, we could see prices snap back higher than I currently anticipate.  It is something to keep an eye on.  Plus that fact that my prognosis could be completely wrong and the market simply goes higher from here.  That has happened before in this seasonal time frame despite the bearish tendency.  So as usual the trading game is tough.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up but not decisively.  I'm going to leave my open order out there and adjust it according to how the market behaves going forward.  So we'll see.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action.

Monday, August 21, 2017

A summer doldrums type of day as the Dow rose 29 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index continues lower.  The market was mixed with the NASDAQ lower.  The VIX is moving lower and my hope is that it continues on that path for the rest of the week.  I'd still like to purchase some SPY September puts within the next week or so.  Ideally a week from today.  But the market rarely cooperates.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty good.  Still no love for GE.  Gold was up five bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX gained 1/3 on average volume.  It doesn't appear that I'll get a chance for the longer term gold share calls.  Just another missed trade.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Patience will be the key here as we have moved into the September option cycle and it's the last two weeks of summer.  Thin trading will be the norm in my opinion.  I will try and wait for a decent technical signal.  At the moment the major stock averages remain short term oversold and a rise of some sort is due at any time this week.  If we can make it back up to the 2465 level on the S&P, that would be the time to purchase the index puts.  We'll just have to wait and see.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how tomorrow goes but expect more of the same.  Slow trading and light volume barring some kind of unexpected event.   

Friday, August 18, 2017

Lower into the weekend as the Dow fell 76 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues lower.  No need to hold on to stocks ahead of the weekend was the theme for today I guess.  Oversold any way you look at it and some type of bounce is in the cards going forward.  Any rally can be shorted in my humble opinion.  The latest economic data that we've seen has all been pretty good and that is a positive backdrop for the market.  It's the event risk that has come to the forefront now.  Nothing positive out of Washington and the fear factor has risen with the recent terrorist attack.  We are also in a seasonally weak period for equities.  GE was down another twenty cents on average volume.  Ugly daily and weekly charts there.  Gold was off a buck and came off of the highs for the session.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  We did see one day reversals to the downside in there two indices.  I will probably try the longer term gold share calls if we get oversold in the next couple of weeks.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Rolling into the September option cycle now.  I'd expect thin trading for the next couple of weeks and then back to full strength after Labor day.  But I could be wrong.  A definite pick up in volatility in the past couple of weeks but we've seen this in August before.  I'm not the only one that has seen the decline in RUT and that worries me.  When everyone has the same take on things it's usually a sign to go the other way.  However I'm sticking with my prognosis for lower prices going forward.  The ideal scenario in my mind for now would be a light volume rise next week in order to purchase the SPY September puts.  The market rarely cooperates.  We aren't close to breaking the longer term uptrend line in the S&P 500, which comes in at the 2350 level.  We should keep in mind however that the RUT led us up and can do the opposite as well.  Plenty of things to consider going forward.  I do wish that things were more clear with a decent trading signal but that isn't the case at this time.  Tread cautiously for now.  Europe and Asia were both lower in last nights trading but nothing drastic.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Sharply lower today as the Dow fell 274 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We now have a lower high and a lower low on the S&P 500.  The trend is down.  In hindsight the recent bounce was your chance to get the SPY September puts.  I do not know if we will get another chance.  The RUT is leading the way down and just broke its 200 day moving average.  I suppose I should have done a better job of paying attention but there is no doubt about it now.  Rallies can be shorted.  I'm not sure how low we'll go here.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  Nothing positive in this chart.  Gold added another $10 on the futures as the US dollar had a slight rise.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We had a terror attack in Spain today and that is taking some of the blame for todays rout.  On a technical basis we're short term oversold and getting there medium term.  However the buy signal isn't as strong as the one before the previous bounce.  I'm looking for ways to purchase the SPY September puts.  My hope will be that we simply don't just collapse from here because if that occurs, it will be too late for the puts.  The market goes where it wants though and rarely cooperates with the best laid plans.  I will simply have to wait and see here if there's a chance to put on a trade that I'm comfortable with.  We could however get a buy signal tonight on the McClellan oscillator.  We may have a lower price print with a higher oscillator reading.  We'll take a look when the numbers come in later tonight.  The positive expiration bias was absent this time around.  I'll probably let tomorrow pass and go from there.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see how the weeks ends tomorrow.

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Another gain today but we did come off of the highs as the Dow rose 25 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  We had a nice rally early but it faded as the day wore on.  The Fed minutes came out but really didn't affect things.  There's not much else to trade off of this week.  We'll get the expiration on Friday and that's about it.  We're halfway through August and the big decline of last week has moved into the background.  I'm still considering the SPY September calls.  GE lost a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold caught a bid after the Fed and rose $9.  The US dollar was weaker today.  The XAU jumped 2 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was a bit less than average.  The longer term gold share call trade is still on my radar but I'll need to see a short term oversold reading to make that happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has quieted down for now.  I'm still waiting on some type of short term signal to put on the next trade.  No need to rush things here towards the end of the summer.  I'll try and remain patient.  The breakdown in the RUT remains one of my concerns as that index is usually a leader for the overall market.  But I will wait for a signal before putting on the next trade.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed in last nights trade.  We'll keep a watch on the overnight action.  

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Another day of hanging around as the Dow rose 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving down.  The overall market was a bit weaker than the Dow.  Waiting for what's next as far as the market goes.  It is expiration week so I would expect some more upside at some point.  I'm still leaning towards the SPY September puts eventually.  Just waiting on some type of signal.  GE dropped about 1/4 on light volume.  Still no love for GE.  Gold lost a dozen on the futures as the US dollar rose again.  The XAU was off over a point and GDX shed 1/4 on light volume.  Feels like the dog days of summer.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has been reigned in for now but could return at any time of course.  It is probably best to simply remain patient here.  There isn't much time left in the August option cycle and plenty of time left in the September one.  So patience here is required.  I'm not going to try and force anything.  Sometimes the end of August gets pretty slow with the final vacations of the summer.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight with the exception of the Hang Seng.  We'll see how things shape up overnight. 

Monday, August 14, 2017

We got the bounce today as the Dow gained 135 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The SPY August call trade that I had envisioned won't happen.  I was looking for some more downside to put that trade on but the market didn't cooperate.  My next idea will probably be for the SPY September puts at some point.  It's possible that the decline we saw last week is over and we simply trend higher from here.  But I will have to see some more volume to believe that.  If we are higher into the end of the week, I'll consider the SPY puts.  GE was up about 15 cents and the volume was light.  This stock still cannot get anything going to the upside.  Gold dropped six bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I'll probably try the gold share calls if we get oversold again in the near term.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Every decline that we've seen since the election has eventually led to higher prices.  Will that be the case this time around as well?  That is the question.  We are in an unfavorable seasonal time for equities but whether or not that plays out is undetermined at the moment.  We're in option expiration week and can expect the usual positive bias.  That may set things up for the SPY September puts.  The McClellan oscillator did reach an extreme oversold reading last week..  Was it the initiation of something lower or the exhaustion of the selling.  As usual the market leaves us with quite a few questions with no clear answers.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Friday, August 11, 2017

A day of hanging around after yesterdays debacle as the Dow rose 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues lower.  I did place an order for the SPY August calls but it never got close to being filled.  I still like the SPY call idea here if the scenario I'm thinking of plays out.  I'd like to see a drop below the 2430 level on the S&P in order to purchase the calls.  This would complete what looks to me as an A-B-C-D-E pattern or a 5 wave down pattern on the S&P.  That would be the set up to get long on a short term basis and be out by Thursday of next week.  That is the game plan for now.  GE was off a dime on pretty light volume.  Gold added six bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  I canceled the open order for the ABX longer term calls.  This trade was missed.  I may try it again if the gold shares get oversold but the ideal time has passed.  Mentally I'm starting to feel a little better and trying to get back into the swing of things.  Vacations and trading don't mix.  The decline stopped today but that doesn't necessarily mean that it is over.  The breaking of the long term uptrend line in RUT must be respected.  I'll go out on a limb and say that I think we've seen the high in the S&P of 2490 for the year.  Perhaps I'm wrong there but I do think you have to at least consider that possibility.  There's a potential negative RSI divergence on the longer term weekly chart for the S&P.  The market will probably open Monday playing off the events or lack thereof over the weekend.  I'm feeling a bit tired and will be catching up on some rest this weekend.  I will however, go over all the charts as well.  We'll be into option expiration week and there's still a chance to attempt a short term trade.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the exception of the DAX which was flat.  It's a Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a rest.

Thursday, August 10, 2017

Well I'm back and what a session to return to.  The Dow got clobbered today and fell 204 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The McClellan oscillator is deeply oversold.  It is in an area where you'd normally expect a bounce.  The question is will it be a bounce that leads back up or simply a bounce to allow traders to get short?  Another question is whether or not to play the bounce.  Just getting back from a vacation, which isn't the normal circumstance for me, makes it hard for me to figure out what to do.  However I may just try the SPY August calls tomorrow.  The decline is geo-political in nature, with Trump vs. North Korea as the topic.  My thinking is that this too will blow over and we'll be back to economics once again.  But I could be wrong and often am.  GE dropped 3 /8 on light volume.  Gold was up $13 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower.  Nothing like international tension to get some gold buying going for a change.  The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX gained 1/2 on good volume.  My open order for the longer term ABX calls wasn't filled while I was away and it really looks like this trade was simply missed.  I still have the order out there in case we see a decline in the gold shares to fill it.  But I'm starting to think that is probably would be best to simply cancel the order and move on.  Mentally I'm a bit tired from the travel.  My market data has to be updated and the time zone difference is still evident in my thinking.  The VIX really jumped today and is overbought any way you look at it.  The small stocks now look like they're leading the way down here.  Unless we see a rise tomorrow, the RUT will be breaking its uptrend line on a weekly basis that's been in effect since the beginning of 2016.  You might want to read that again because it is significant and would change the whole ballgame going forward.  I think that the fact we're in the seasonally weak time period for the market is another thing to consider as well.  So caution is advised at the moment.  The short term uptrend line for the SPY comes in just below the 243 level.  That would be the logical spot to try the SPY August calls for a bounce.  But what to do after that will be the question if in fact a bounce there does occur.  As usual there are plenty of questions to be answered in the game.  Perhaps waiting until things sort themselves out would be the best strategy but you won't make any money that way.  You won't lose any though.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight foreign market developments and see what tomorrow brings.

Monday, July 31, 2017

Lackluster trading to begin the week and end the month.  The Dow gained 60 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  We did have a one day reversal to the downside in the S&P 500.  On Friday the McClellan oscillator gave a signal for a big move within the next two trading sessions.  So we'll have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.  We remain short term overbought for most of the major averages.  GE gained a few cents on average volume.  Gold barely moved despite another decent drop in the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  I will put in an open order for the longer term ABX gold share calls while I'm away.  But I'll price them for some type of pullback scenario since the gold shares are short term overbought at the moment.  This does look like simply a missed trade though at this point.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but not focused as I should be because I am leaving on vacation today.  The blog most likely will return in the middle of next week.  I do not anticipate being near a computer for a while but if I get the chance, I will provide an update.  There's a bit less than three weeks left in the August option cycle, so a trade is possible.  However taking time off will probably negate that possibility.  Overdue for some pullback in the overall market but that's been the case for months.  Asia was mixed and Europe mostly lower overnight.  I'll be back soon.

Friday, July 28, 2017

A quiet close to the week as the Dow added 33 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is now trending sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow once again.  GDP came in about as expected, which led to a bit of selling early but did not amount to much.  The technical indicators for the major stock averages remain overbought.  The VIX did have a spike up this week but now looks like it is going to roll over.  Earnings remain the focus and they are coming in good for the most part.  The TRAN has rolled over and that is something to watch.  However most indices remain in striking distance to new all time highs and there is no resistance.  GE lost 1/4 on light volume and continues to disappoint.  What used to be a market bellwether is now an also ran.  Gold rose another $8 on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained 1 1/2, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume was lighter.  It looks like the longer term gold share call trade has been missed.  The opportunity for ABX came on the drop Monday but my order was already canceled and I wanted to wait for the earnings as well.  I might place an open order before I leave on vacation but this would be chasing what has already happened.  There is plenty of room to move up on the weekly chart though.  But the most opportune time for that trade has been missed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  End of the month coming on Monday and we'll probably see some squaring of positions.  We've got a summer rally in progress with no sign of the doldrums.  We'll see how this plays out going forward.  My mind is in vacation mode for now.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  It's Friday afternoon in late July.  Time for a rest.

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Volatility returned to day as the Dow gained 85 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, especially the small stocks.  Some indices had one day reversals to the downside.  The TRAN fell almost 300 points.  I'm not exactly sure what is going on here but one day doesn't make a trend.  The short term technical indicators for the majority of the major indices remain overbought.  We'll have to see how the market behaves tomorrow.  GE gained almost 1/4 on good volume.  Is this the bottom for GE?  Gold rose $9 on the futures despite a decent gain in the US dollar.  The XAU dropped two points, while GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was average.  If the gold shares turn back down here, there's a possibility that I will be able to put on the longer term gold share call trade.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  GDP out tomorrow and that should have an effect on the US dollar, which in turn should move the gold market.  And the overall market for that matter.  Today was interesting because the volatility came out of nowhere.  As long as we stay overbought, there is always that possibility.  Earnings have been pretty good so far and if that continues I don't see any major drop for stocks.  We are in a seasonally weak period for equities though.  So we'll see how it goes.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

More of the same today as the Dow gained 97 points while the overall market lagged.  The advance/declines were barely positive and volume was average.  The summation index continues higher for now.  I really think things are getting overdone to the upside at this point.  It is usually not bullish when the Dow is the leading average.  Overbought and overdue for something to the downside in my opinion.  But my opinion hasn't been worth much lately.  The Fed was dovish with remarks and rates remained unchanged.  The summer rally is in full swing.  GE gained 15 cents and the volume was good.  Gold rose $8 on the futures as the US dollar continued its decline.  The XAU added 2 1/2, while GDX rose 1/2 on better volume.  It appears that I've missed the longer term gold share call trade.  The stock that I chose, ABX, has already come up off of its lows of Monday.  Earnings due tonight and the gold shares have momentum at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Summer rolls on and so does the Dow.  Nothing seems to be in the way but this can't go on forever can it?  Still more earnings due in the next couple of sessions, plus GDP on Friday.  I'm basically waiting to go on vacation next week.  Europe and Asia were mostly higher overnight.  We'll see how traders reacts to the earnings from ABX in trading tomorrow.

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Earnings drove the market higher today as the Dow rose 100 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to trend higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today.  New all time highs for many of the major stock indices.  You cannot argue with price.  Overbought and staying there.  GE was up a penny on pretty good volume.  Gold dropped $4 on the futures as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU added 1 2/3, while GDX was up 1/4.  Volume was light.  Good earnings from NEM was the catalyst for the gold shares.  ABX made a comeback as well.  We await the earnings there after the bell tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is at low levels that haven't been seen in years.  Todays heavier than usual volume for the market is either the beginning of a blow off to the upside or then end of this two week rally.  That's my guess at the moment.  We'll get the Fed out of the way tomorrow but we seem to be in an earnings driven environment for the time being.  And earnings are looking pretty good so far.  GOOG disappointed and there could be a double top put in there on the daily chart.  MMM had a huge gap down as well.  But the stocks that had good reports drove things higher for the most part.  We'll see if that continues and it is looking like it probably will.  Asia was mostly lower and Europe higher in last nights trading.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.  I don't expect any surprises. 

Monday, July 24, 2017

A mixed bag to start the week as the Dow lost 66 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is now grinding higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way.  That's a positive.  We've got the Fed on Wednesday but it could simply be a non event.  There are no changes expected there.  GDP on Friday should be more of a market mover.  Plus we've got a lot of earnings coming out this week.  But it is the last week of July, so slow trading would not be a surprise.  Still overbought on all the major stock indices any way you look at it.  GE continues to fall, off 1/2 on heavy volume.  So not everything is going up.  Gold was flat on the session as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX shed 1/3 on about average volume.  One day doesn't make a trend but the volume on the recent rise in the gold shares was weak.  ABX got clobbered today but I am still considering the longer term calls there.  Earnings are due after the bell on Wednesday.  I'll wait for that before considering putting in an order.  Mentally I'm feeling OK but with a vacation coming up, my mind is not in the proper place for trading.  I rarely travel and prefer to keep the normal day to day schedule with the markets.  Having to take off for a while throws things out of whack.  Like last year when I got stuck in the hospital, although that was more of a life and death scenario.  At any rate to be successful here you've got to pay attention.  That doesn't occur when you're traveling.  So I'm kind of in limbo for a few weeks when it comes to trading.  Now I can put on the longer term option gold share call trade, since it will go out to the autumn.  I may leave in an open order depending on how it goes after the earnings announcement.  Or I may simply pass altogether.  I still think the overall market is due for a rest but as usual the timing is the question.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Friday, July 21, 2017

Another slow trading day as the Dow lost 31 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues to the upside.  The Dow did come up from the lows of the session.  It seems like we are in a drift here, with the market poised to go higher still.  Overbought and staying there.  Summer trading is upon us.  GE hit another new low on the earnings and fell 3/4 on the day with very heavy volume.  It too came back from its worst on the day.  It's trying to hold the 200 week moving average.  Gold was up $8 on the futures as the US dollar keeps dropping.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains yet again but the volume remains very weak.  My guess is that this rally in the gold shares will fail.  If it does, I'll attempt the longer term gold share calls when we get oversold here.  If it doesn't fail, I will have simply missed the move.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  We made it though expiration Friday with most of the major stock averages still hovering near all time highs.  There doesn't appear to be anything in the way of the rally.  I still don't like the light volume but we haven't seen much selling in the past couple of weeks.  We'll roll into the August option cycle, which has an extra week in it.  The option premiums will be high.  I'll be keeping an eye on things but since I'll be going away in about a week, the urgency to trade will be missing.  I may leave an open order for the longer term gold share calls but that will be about it.  It depends on how ABX reacts to the earnings on Tuesday.  As for the S&P, we're long overdue for some type of decline but it hasn't happened yet.  We get sideways and then higher.  As long as that continues, the path of least resistance remains up.  But I would remain cautious here because the potential RSI negative divergence is still visible on the weekly chart.  But nothing has happened yet.  Asia and Europe were both lower overnight, with the DAX leading the way down.  Could that be a sign as to what we are about to see here for the Dow?  Stay tuned on that.  I'll be checking things over the weekend but the overall tone of things here is the lazy, hazy days of summer.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Thursday, July 20, 2017

A bit lower today as the Dow fell 29 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Kind of just a sideways summer session.  Overbought both short and medium term now for the S&P.  The TRAN has already rolled over.  I can't see us going much higher in the near term but my ideas have been quite wrong lately.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was heavy.  This stock just cannot get anything going to the upside.  The daily candlestick chart is bearish.  Gold was up just a bit on the futures as the US dollar continues its decline.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  I canceled my open order for the ABX longer term calls for now.  I'll let the earnings report come out next week and then figure out if I still want to try this trade.  The gold shares have rallied for a couple of weeks but the volume has been light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Record highs day after day for most of the major stock indices large and small.  I still do not trust this rally because the volume has been light all the way up.  It may just be because of the summer season but I cannot go against that principal.  I still think that things will not end well here and we are on the 5th and final wave up that started with the end of the last recession.  Earnings season is upon us and we'll have to see how that goes.  The rise this week could simply be expiration related, combined with squeezing what is left of the shorts.  Asia was higher and Europe mostly lower last night.  We'll see how we close out the week tomorrow.   
The rally continued yesterday as the Dow gained 66 points on the usual light volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now heading higher at a better rate.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  There is no overhead resistance but I would expect a move back to the breakout point.  However my ideas on the stock market have been wrong lately.  I also still do not trust this light volume move up but you can't argue with price.  Gold was little changed as was the US dollar.  I got tied up yesterday and never made it back to a computer to update the blog.  Things will be back to normal for the blog, or at least should be, today.

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Lower for the Dow today as the most watched index shed 55 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ higher.  The summation index is still moving up.  We got another signal yesterday from the McClellan oscillator that portends a big move that would now be due tomorrow.  We'll see if that signal works again.  Not much else for me to do here.  The market is overbought and staying there.  That is the way it goes in up trends.  I'm still not sold on this light volume rise.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold gained $8 on the futures as the US dollar down trend continues.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Gold has been acting better than the gold shares in this rise and that generally isn't sustainable for a long term trend.  You'd like to see the opposite.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like we're getting the positive expiration bias for the stock market this week.  No news really and we tried to sell off early today but to no avail.  I'm on the sidelines for the foreseeable future due to lack of confidence combined with an upcoming vacation.  I'll be canceling the open order for the longer term gold share calls this week due to the earnings coming out next Wednesday.  Not exactly the summer doldrums here but the volume is slow and the price movement isn't extreme.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  The Dow did follow the DAX but not with the same degree.  I'll be keeping an eye on the news tonight.    

Monday, July 17, 2017

A quiet summer Monday of trading as the Dow fell 8 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving higher.  Short term overbought now for all the major averages.  But that doesn't mean that we can't stay that way.  I do think some type of decline is imminent though.  However after last weeks debacle, I'll be remaining on the sidelines.  4 days to go in the July option cycle and my confidence is shot anyway.  With a trip planned during the August cycle. it appears that I won't be trading the SPY options anytime soon.  It's a light week on the economic calendar.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX had a fractional gain.  Volume was very light.  I've still got the longer term open order for the ABX calls out there but will probably cancel it ahead of the earnings next week on the 26th.  No need for a surprise there and if ABX drops, then I'll consider it again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is below 10 and oversold any way you look at it.  This won't last forever either.  I do expect some kind of drop or consolidation this week.  At the rate things are going here, it looks like we could head higher after a brief pause.  But I really don't think we are going to see a strong leg up.  The volume is just not there and eventually this too will fail.  The timing, as usual, is the question.  Now it may seem as though I'm leaning back and forth on what will happen here.  But we will be heading lower in my opinion because a light volume rally can never be trusted and the breakout in the S&P here is weak in my opinion.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll follow the overnight developments and take it from there. 

Friday, July 14, 2017

New all time highs once again as the Dow gained 84 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Overbought and staying that way for now.  We have broken out to new all time highs on the S&P 500 as well.  But the volume is so light here that I am pretty sure that this rally will not end well.  The shorts got squeezed today and that included me.  I got clobbered on my SPY July put trades.  I simply dumped them today because this was a poorly timed idea.  I thought that I was doing the right thing but was simply wrong in my take of the market.  I was getting short as the sideways consolidation was ending.  I'm not sure if it was because I wanted to get a trade in for the July cycle or perhaps to put something on since I hadn't traded in a while.  Regardless, my reading of the indicators and the markets was wrong.  It was a 75% loss on the first trade and a 60% loss on the second.  I committed the cardinal sin of chasing a losing trade.  My thinking this past week was poor to say the least.  But you've got to keep moving on.  GE lost a penny on very light volume.  Gold was up over $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was lower on weaker than expected economic data.  The XAU added 1 1/3, while GDX rose 1/3.  Volume is still light here.  I still have my open order for the longer term ABX calls out there for now.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated after my losing trading attempts this week.  There is no way in my mind that I think we are on the verge of another leg up here for the S&P.  Even though it is summer, the volume is so light on this up move that it just cannot be trusted in my view.  We're short term overbought but can stay that way as option expiration week is upon us.  So what's my next move?  Do I dare try the SPY July puts again next week?  Probably not.  I'm most likely going to head to the sidelines to lick my wounds.  I'm also planning a vacation for a change during the August option cycle, so my attention then won't be what is necessary to trade.  I'm pretty disappointed in my trading behavior this week and that is not the mental state of mind that is helpful for success.  The set up now looks like the market is about to drop but I am pretty sure that I'll be sitting things out for now.  The VIX is almost at its lowest point for the year and that will not last.  I'll go over all the charts again this weekend but I would not be surprised to see some kind of drop next week.  It's Friday afternoon in the summer and time for a break.

Thursday, July 13, 2017

A drift higher today as the Dow rose 20 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trending higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The volume is so light here at all time highs for the Dow that I have to believe that the market will head lower in the near future.  And sooner rather than later hopefully for my SPY July puts.  I did think that today was the ideal time to buy and I purchased some other SPY July puts at a higher strike price.  This is a risky venture to say the least as the market could simply stay overbought and drift higher.  But without something to provide a push higher, I have to think that a pullback is coming soon.  We'll see.  GE was up almost 1/4 but the volume was lighter.  Gold was slightly lower on the futures as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU fell 1 1/8, while GDX dropped 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm breaking one of the rules here as I am chasing a losing position with more capital.  I'm now holding the SPY July puts at two different strike prices.  Both are showing losses with the lower strike price having the bigger loss.  I'm not sure if I want to hold this over the weekend or not.  I'll have to let tomorrows price action determine that most likely.  We're short term overbought but we could get more overbought.  With 6 days to go in the July option cycle there is time for this trade to work.  However as time goes by the premiums get smaller and that doesn't help the situation.  The trading is never easy.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow. 

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

We got the big move implied a couple days ago by the McClellan oscillator as the Dow rose 123 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  Yellen spoke and the market liked what it heard.  The Dow hit a new all time intra-day high.  My open order for the SPY July puts was filled in the morning and is showing a small loss.  This trade doesn't appear to be working, as tomorrow might actually have been the time to place it.  I may sell it for a small loss tomorrow morning and then move to a higher strike price as the day moves on.  It depends on how we open and the market action early on.  The short term down trend line has been broken to the upside and the short term indicators have moved back up.  So perhaps the puts here are not even the right idea.  I don't trust light volume rallies though.  GE was up 20 cents and the volume was heavy.  Perhaps The low for GE has finally been put in.  Gold was up almost five bucks on the futures.  The US dollar bounced around and finished the day little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher.  Volume remains light here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Finally back in a trade but it isn't quite going as I'd like it.  I'm either a little early or this idea is completely wrong.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and the small stocks acted well.  Getting short term overbought for the small stocks but we still could see some more upside despite being overbought.  If we see a pick up in volume to the upside, then I think we'll be getting a summer rally.  If we stall out here, then the SPY July put trade could work.  There's still 7 days to go in the July option cycle.  But I will try not to fool myself.  My entry today was not what it could have been and there's definitely a chance that we simply move higher from here.  Asia was lower and Europe higher last night.  Some economic data out tomorrow but much more on Friday including retail sales.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading action. 

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Volatility returned today as the market was off more than 100 points during the session but managed to make it back to break even by the end of the day.  The Dow was up a half a point on light volume.  the advance/declines were slightly higher.  The summation index is still moving lower.  My open order for the SPY July puts wasn't close to being filled with todays price action.  I'm leaving it in but things could change in a hurry.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal yesterday for a big move within the next two trading sessions.  We could have seen it today with the intra-day 100 point move lower.  Or it still may be coming tomorrow.  We will get the Yellen testimony and the Feds beige book.  The market has had plenty of chances to sell off lately but it always seems to find a way back.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume remains good.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures after being lower early on.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  My longer term gold share option order remains in place.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are in an interesting place here as the small stocks broke their 50 day moving averages and have now bounced back to them.  The S&P 500 is balancing on its 50 day moving average as well.  The S&P has also stalled once again at the short term down trend line.  A break above that line should lead to some kind of rally.  The breadth and volume, if it does happen, will tell us what we need to know about where things are going.  But we could simply break down from here as well.  We've been sideways with a downward tilt for over a month now.  Something has to give.  With the summation index still moving down, I'm looking for a meaningful drop.  But we all know that things can turn on a dime in this game.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Monday, July 10, 2017

A mixed market to begin the week as the Dow lost 5 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still moving lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and the small stocks led the way.  That's a positive.  The S&P 500 still remains below a short term down trend line though.  I do have an open order to purchase some SPY July puts but it will take a small rally to get filled.  I may be too late as it is possible that today was the day to get short again.  However it is also possible that the consolidation is over and we're going to head to new all time highs again.  I am not in that camp.  GE was off eleven cents and the volume remains above average.  Not sure what is happening here.  Gold was up 3 bucks as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 2 3/8, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was average.  I'm not sure why there was interest in the gold shares today.  My open order for the ABX October calls was almost filled on Friday.  The premiums there have now risen as ABX added 1/2 today.  I'm leaving the order in.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Inflation data out this week along with retail sales.  We also will get the fed beige book and testimony from Janet Yellen on Wednesday.  So there is potential for some market movement.  I'm still looking for lower prices in the near term and will take my cues from the summation index.  However, if we get a sharp rally out of nowhere, I'll be canceling my order for the SPY July puts.  Europe and Asia we higher in overnight trade.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Friday, July 07, 2017

The recent up trend lines held for now as the Dow gained 94 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were a bit better than 2 to 1 positive.  This will slow the drop in the summation index but the summation index isn't really trending one way or the other.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus.  The VIX turned around and is heading back down.  I don't trust light volume rallies and may be looking to purchase some SPY July puts in the beginning of next week.  We are more short term oversold than overbought.  GE was off another 16 cents on good volume.  Not sure what the story is here but we hit a new yearly low.  Gold lost over $10 on the futures as the US dollar was up a bit.  The XAU shed 1 1/2, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was average.  I still have the open order in for the longer term ABX calls and will leave it out there.  Could get filled perhaps next week if the decline in gold continues.  I'll take another look over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The employment report was better than expected and we rallied from the start.  Whether or not it has legs will be determined next week.  We've had quite a bit of selling lately but are still close to new all time highs in some of the major stock indices.  With two weeks to go in the July option cycle, there is still time to put on a trade.  Today was important, because a break here would have led to a lot more selling.  But that could be the case next week if things turn back down and the up trend line is threatened again.  I am kind of leaning towards that scenario but will have to do the work over the weekend to be sure.  I will probably attempt some type of trade next week.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for some rest.

Thursday, July 06, 2017

To the downside as the Dow fell 158 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading lower which implies lower prices to come.  The overall market was weak as well.  Is it too late for the SPY July puts?  Maybe but we'll have to see how it plays out from here.  We are approaching an up trend line from the beginning of the year for the SPY that comes in at roughly 239.  That could be a spot to try the SPY July calls tomorrow.  However the market has the feel of wanting to drop here.  We are short term oversold for the S&P but not drastically so.  We are also at an up trend line for the NASDAQ.  Tomorrow will be an important session.  We'll either hold on here or start to really drop.  GE was off over a point on heavy volume.  Is this the precursor for tomorrow?  Gold rose a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was weaker.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Obviously the tone of the market has changed here.  Where as before we had no sellers, now we are lacking buyers during the trading day.  We're still pretty close to all time highs for many of the major big cap indices.  The VIX has started to rise here but is not overbought yet.  So here we are.  Potentially on the verge of a breakdown in my opinion.  If we can hold up here there might be a chance for a short term rally.  So we are at an important inflection point for the market.  The employment report will probably trigger some kind of reaction.  I'm not sure if I'll make any trades though.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight but not drastically.  We'll see what happens with the jobs report and the markets reaction to it tomorrow. 

Wednesday, July 05, 2017

Kind of a mixed bag after the holiday as the Dow lost a point on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow for a change, with the NASDAQ up 40 points.  The summation index is still trending sideways and along with the overall market is trying to make up its mind on which way to go.  I'm still leaning towards purchasing some SPY July puts.  However I may wait until Fridays jobs report to decide what to do.  It still appears as though you can make a case for either direction.  GE lost a dime and the volume was light.  Gold was up $3 on the futures and the US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU had a fractional gain, while GDX lost a nickel.  Volume was average.  Not a lot of interest in gold despite another launch form North Korea.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Over two weeks to go in the July option cycle so there is time to get something done on the trading front.  No clear signal here though and sometimes being patient is the toughest task to do.  I would not expect much tomorrow ahead of Fridays employment report.  The Fed minutes today did not spark any market action.  Perhaps just waiting for Friday makes the most sense at this point.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.  

Monday, July 03, 2017

The Dow rallied on this holiday shortened trading session, gaining 129 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index will be higher today but still moving sideways on the overall picture.  We were up over 200 at one point during the day.  The overall market was still much weaker than the Dow here with the NASDAQ firmly in negative territory.  The Dow did set a new intra-day high.  I really think that the index puts are the way to go here as the Dow leadership is bearish in my mind.  It may be too late though as todays price action was actually bearish in my view.  A light volume rally that was sold in the last hour of trading.  GE was up 3/8 on very light volume.  Beginning of the month buying perhaps.  We are oversold all the way around here for GE.  Gold took a hit today as the futures shed over $20.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 1 3/4, while GDX dropped almost 2/3.  Volume was light.  I do still have an open order for the longer term gold share calls of ABX.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The TRAN has now joined the Dow at new all time highs.  It is hard to be bearish with these positive technical conditions.  It is hard to ignore the negative technical divergences in some of the major averages though.  Perhaps we'll see one more blow off to the upside before some real selling kicks in.  Volatility did pick up last week but we have yet to see even a 5% decline in the major averages.  I suppose I'm just really still at a loss on where we are going from here.  But I am leaning towards getting some SPY July puts ahead of the employment report on Friday.  If we continue to go higher in the next couple of trading sessions on light volume, that's what I'm planning to do.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll enjoy the day off tomorrow and be back at it on Wednesday.

Friday, June 30, 2017

In general a positive day for stocks as the Dow gained 62 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  We were up well over 100 but dropped hard in the last fifteen minutes.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The tone of the market has obviously changed as we are back and forth each session.  I'm going to look everything over this weekend but I'm leaning towards simply buying some SPY July puts.  The small stocks look like they're rolling over here and they are generally the leaders.  The negative weekly RSI divergence remains in place for the S&P 500.  I'd like to see a light volume rise next week going into the employment report but the market rarely cooperates.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  Gold was off four bucks as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on almost average volume.  Not a lot of interest in gold despite a drop in the US dollar.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  An interesting week in the stock market as we finally saw some actual selling for a change.  We haven't broken down here yet.  The trend does still remain up for now.  The question is whether this is an actual change in trend that we are about to see or just some end of the June quarter profit taking.  The small stocks are short term oversold and the big caps are trying to get there.  The small stocks are trying to hold their 50 day moving averages while most of the big caps are not even close to theirs.  The TRIN is pretty overbought here, which says to me we need to see some more selling.  But what do I know?  I guess I'll have to see how we do at the beginning of next week and go from there.  Monday will be a holiday session with a day off in the US on Tuesday.  Things should be up to full speed on Wednesday.  I'll do my work over the weekend and try to come up with a valid strategy.  Both Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.