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Thursday, June 22, 2017

A bit lower today as the Dow fell 12 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still trending down.  The market dropped from positive territory in the final half hour.  It doesn't appear that there will be the light volume rally that we need to see in order to get some SPY July puts.  I'll still have to remain patient for the time being.  GE was off about 1/4 on good volume.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX rose 1/4 on almost average volume.  ABX rose 1/3 and is now right at a down trend line that began in April.  Perhaps I've missed this opportunity as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A pretty quiet week so far for the major stock indices after the nice upside move that we saw on Monday.  The lack of follow through after that rally seems noticeable to me and I really do think that we are getting ready to see some sustained downside for stocks.  I could be wrong.  I'll be keeping an eye on the summation index for clues.  Not much else to report from todays price action.  We do have the RUT rebalancing tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were both mixed overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.  

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

The Dow fell 57 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now heading down.  Unlike yesterday the small stocks did pretty well and were strong out performers.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  I'm still in the camp of more downside here.  What I'd like to see is a light volume rally attempt back to the recent new all time highs.  That would be where Id look to try the SPY July puts.  We'll see how things play out going forward.  GE was off 1/3 on average volume.  I don't have any trades in the works here at the moment.  Gold was up three bucks on the futures as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU was up 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was light.  My order for the ABX October calls remains in place.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple days of decline here doesn't exactly make a trend but I do think that a change is coming.  I'll take my cues for now from the summation index and that has turned around.  However with the small stocks taking the lead today, perhaps my ideas here are wrong.  But volume has picked up a bit going lower and that is something to watch.  There really isn't much data to come out yet this week to make a difference.  So I'll be patient for now and hope my light volume set up happens in the next few sessions.  Europe and Asia were both lower again overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 61 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index lower.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  We did not get any upside follow through to yesterdays gains.  There is a chance that yesterday was a short term top as the technical indicators have now rolled over on the charts.  The TRAN got clobbered today.  The negative divergences that I have previously mentioned may now come home to roost.  It is only one day lower but I have the feeling that this could be the beginning of something more.  The Dow has been leading the way here and that is usually a late stage of the up trend event.  GE was off 2/3 and the volume was heavy.  The resistance at $29 is pretty strong.  Gold and the US dollar were both little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I did place an open order for some ABX October calls.  We'll need to see a drop in ABX for this order to be filled.  ABX was off 1/8 today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I really think we're going to head lower here as the signs of technical deterioration have been there for a while.  The under performance of the small stocks has not been a good sign for the bulls.  Yesterdays rally was on light volume.  We also finished near the lows for the session.  The SPY options are still rather pricey with so much time left until the July expiration.  But the market won't wait around if it wants to go lower.  I'll check the option premiums again tonight and try to come up with an entry point.  We will also need to see some follow through lower on Wednesday to confirm the weakness.  If we do head lower I think that will confirm my thoughts.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  So after we saw a global push into stocks on Monday, we got the exact opposite on Tuesday.  I think that caution is advised.  This has the potential to be something more than just a pause before we move higher.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action.  

Monday, June 19, 2017

The strength showed up today as the Dow climbed 144 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index should be moving back up.  Still overbought and staying there for the big caps.  The small caps are coming off of their oversold readings.  Interesting how the market just happens to climb after the June expiration has passed.  Never under estimate the market makers in this game.  They'll do what they have to and keep the profits rolling.  New all time highs for the Dow and the S&P.  Perhaps this is the beginning of the summer rally.  Just a guess on my part.  GE was off 20 cents on lighter volume.  Stalling at resistance here.  Gold dropped over $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  I still favor the longer term gold share calls as a trade within the next few weeks.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Plenty of time in the July option cycle for a trade.  It is just a matter of getting a decent signal as always.  No hurry here as I'll simply have to wait for something to develop.  Not a lot of economic data to trade off of this week.  There is no overhead resistance for the S&P 500 but we will not stay overbought forever.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight as money is flowing into stocks around the globe.  We'll keep an eye on the developments this evening.

Friday, June 16, 2017

A pretty quiet quarterly expiration as the Dow gained 24 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is back to trending sideways.  I did expect higher prices over the past two days and it didn't happen.  I'll still be looking for some upside early next week.  Or perhaps my view of things here is simply off.  I am looking for a spot to purchase some SPY July puts.  The weekly negative divergence that I see on the chart hasn't gone away.  The problem is the premiums for the July options are expensive, with an extra week of time on them.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was very heavy.  Plenty of overhead resistance here.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar fell.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume.  The lack of progress in the price of gold despite the fall in the dollar is a concern for the precious metal bulls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So here we are.  The big caps have held up here and are closer to short term overbought.  The small stocks have sold off and are short term oversold.  The Dow has been the recent leader.  In my mind the market is getting more narrow and we are closer to some sort of top rather than some sort of bottom.  But how can we trade it?  I'm still going to have to wait for some sort of signal, despite the last one for strength at the end of this week not working.  There isn't a lot of economic data out next week so we'll probably just trade off of the technical readings unless there is a headline event.  Perhaps the summer slowdown will begin.  I do not have any solid trading ideas right now but I'll be checking the charts over the weekend.  The ideal scenario in my mind would be a light volume rally to get short term overbought all the way around.  Then attempting the July puts would make sense to me.  But as always the market will go where it wants.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Thursday, June 15, 2017

A bit lower today as the Dow fell 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trending up but sluggishly.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow again.  Keep that in mind going forward.  The small stocks are lagging and that is a sign of a tired market.  The S&P 500 was down almost 20 points early on.  I did place an order for the SPY June calls but it wasn't filled.  I was only going to attempt this trade on my terms and the option price didn't hit my target.  You could make a case for trying it again tomorrow on weakness but I think that I'll step aside.  My idea for this trade was valid though and I'll take that moving forward.  I would not be surprised with an up session to tomorrow to close out the week.  My work says to expect higher prices late this week but we are almost out of time.  GE was up 1/2 on pretty good volume.  Plenty of overhead resistance at 29-29.5.  Gold fell $20 on the futures as the US dollar rallied.  The XAU lost 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/8.  Volume was good.  The gold shares took most of their losses for the move in gold yesterday.  It looks like the dollar could rally from here so that should add to weakness in the precious metal.  I'll be keeping an eye on the longer term gold share calls here going forward.  ABX will be my preferred vehicle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Another option cycle goes by without a trade.  I can't say that there was a lot of opportunities as the S&P has moved sideways the past couple of weeks.  The July option cycle has an extra week and a holiday on a Tuesday.  I'm certainly not looking to go long anytime soon as the tone of things has changed.  There is still what I consider a glaring negative divergence on the RSI for the S&P 500 weekly chart.  The non leadership of the small stocks is not a positive.  The leadership of the Dow here is usually a late stage bull market indicator.  We'll see how things play out from here.  Europe and Asia were weaker in overnight trade.  We'll have the quarterly expiration as we close out the trading week tomorrow.

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Another mixed bag today as the Dow rose while the overall market was lower.  The most watched index gained 46 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving up but barely.  We did get a sell off during the Fed press conference but the market came back.  I did place an order for the SPY June calls but once again it wasn't filled.  I'm willing to try this again tomorrow if we see some weakness because I'm convinced that we'll see higher prices going into the expiration on Friday.  However today may have been the last chance to try that.  The Fed raised rates a quarter point as expected.  The economic data out today was weak.  GE was up 1/4 today and the volume was good.  I don't see any trades here at the moment.  Gold was off $6 on the futures and fell off of its highs.  The US dollar finished little changed but did come up from its lows.  The XAU shed 3 1/4, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was heavy and the daily candlestick pattern is bearish.  This will be the time to keep an eye on the longer term gold share call options.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  There is no doubt here that the overall market is weaker than the Dow.  That is a change from how it's been for quite some time.  It isn't a bullish development but it can sometimes take some time for this to play out.  It is something to be aware of though.  Two days left in the June option cycle and if we get weakness early tomorrow, I'll probably try the SPY June calls.  It's risky but my work is calling for higher prices in the next two days.  If we simply rise from the open then there won't be a trade worth taking and we'll roll out to July.  I expect we'll see more new all time highs in the Dow and the S&P before the week is out.  It's then quite possible that the market will head into summer mode.  Europe and Asia were mostly lower yesterday but the moves were muted.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Moving higher today as the Dow gained 92 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving higher.  It appears that the SPY June call trade won't happen.  We needed to see some more decline today to set up the trade but it didn't happen.  Perhaps if we get a sell off tomorrow I'll take the risk.  But with only three days left in the June option cycle it may not be worth it.  We did set some new all time highs today as the bull lives on.  GE fell 1/2 on heavy volume.  I guess the excitement of hiring a new CEO has worn off rather quickly.  Gold finished little changed and the US dollar didn't do much either.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves up on light volume.  I'd like to see another sell off in the gold shares to set up the longer term call trade there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the Fed tomorrow and the market should do something after the announcement.  I'm wondering if I dare attempt the SPY June calls still with so little time remaining.  My work still suggests that we'll be higher towards the end of this week.  But it simply could be that it is just too late and that yesterday was the time to purchase the calls.  I suppose I'll wait and see what happens tomorrow.  I certainly don't want to make a trade just for the sake of making one.  So we'll see.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  A rate hike is expected tomorrow and we should get one.  It may be what happens in the later press conference that gets things going.  I'll be keeping an eye on things tonight and getting ready for what could be an interesting session tomorrow.

Monday, June 12, 2017

A bit lower today as the Dow fell 36 points on pretty good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is trying to go up but is basically moving sideways.  We did come up from the lows of the session and that's a positive.  However the small stocks are relative under performers here and that isn't a good sign.  I did place an order for the SPY June calls but it wasn't filled.  I would like to attempt this trade at some point in the next two trading days.  I do believe that we'll see strength towards the latter half of the week.  The entry will have to be spot on since there is such little time remaining in the June option cycle.  We do have the Fed to contend with on Wednesday.  GE suddenly came to life today and jumped a buck on extremely heavy volume.  The double bottom with the RSI positive divergence actually ended up working out.  GE announced a new CEO today and that was the reason for the jump.  Gold lost a couple of bucks on the futures as the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU lost almost a buck and GDX almost a dime on light volume.  I'm still considering a longer term option trade for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got another pop in the VIX today but it is not completely overbought just yet.  One more sell off should do it but when that will happen is the question.  Once again, with only four days to go in the June option cycle the risk is very high.  I'm hoping that I'm up to the task.  With a Fed announcement thrown in there as well, you can see how difficult things can become.  I might have to wait until after the Fed meeting to put on this trade but we'll have to see how things move before that event.  I do think that the SPY June calls are the way to go here and I do think that there will be some money to be made.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight as the worldwide markets are taking a breather as well.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Friday, June 09, 2017

Volatility returned today as the market rocked and rolled for a change.  The Dow did gain 89 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  However the overall market was much weaker, led by the NASDAQ which lost 113 points.  The S&P 500 had a one day reversal to the downside as it opened higher and closed lower.  It finished with a loss of two points.  I did place an open order for the SPY June puts but it wasn't filled.  I basically missed this trade as I was not quick enough to take advantage of the opportunity.  It still could work but I think the chance has passed.  I do however think that there could be a chance to play the SPY June calls next week if things line up.  GE rose 1/3 but the volume was light.  Gold dropped another $10 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher again.  The XAU fell 1 1/3, while GDX lost 1/3 on average volume.  We had a false break of the down trend line in gold that's been in effect for about 5 years.  This should turn traders even more bearish on gold and the next time the line is violated, there won't be a lot of believers.  I'm still looking at taking a longer term gold share call trade at some point in the near future.  ABX or GDX will be my preferred vehicles for this trade.  The next time we are both short and medium term oversold here will be the time to take the trade.  I'll go out to the September or October options.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A very interesting trading session today and we haven't had one of those in a while.  I did miss the put trade that I wanted to do but there is still a possibility to try something next week if things line up right.  The big 5 stocks, AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOG and NFLX all got crushed today and that led the small stocks down.  These five issues have accounted for much of the gains in the major averages lately and when they started to fall today it simply fed on itself.  They all did bounce back some, just like the S&P.  This could be the beginning of a much needed breather for these issues or we could simply just turn around.  I'm inclined to think that things will eventually be going lower from here.  There is a glaring negative RSI divergence in the S&P 500 weekly chart.  It is only a potential event at this point, as we could somehow rally back to a higher RSI reading that would negate this pattern.  But I do not see that happening.  The problem is that we would have to roll into the July option cycle and there is an extra week of time on those options.  But it is something that I'm considering.  For now if we get a weak start to next week, I'd like to try the SPY June calls on around Wednesday.  This would be a highly risky endeavor with only two days left in the June option cycle.  But my work points to strength at the end of next week and I'd be willing to give it a try under the right circumstances.  Plenty of things to consider when checking the charts over the weekend.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight with the exception of Hong Kong.  The British election did not have the huge impact overseas as expected.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Another day of hanging around as the Dow gained 8 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still heading sideways.  We were both up and down today so it was frustrating no matter which side you're playing.  At this rate I probably won't be attempting any trades in the June option cycle.  We're still short term overbought and have been all week.  The small stocks also continue to outperform and that is a positive sign.  I think that I'll still try the SPY June puts if we get to 2450 on the S&P but that isn't a given at this rate.  The news today didn't do much for trading and we've got the election results from England coming in soon.  With only six days to go in the June option cycle the risk only increases from here.  GE was off about a dime on good volume.  Gold dropped over $10 on the futures as the US dollar was a bit higher again.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  Gold has now dropped back from the breakout point of the long term down trend line.  That makes the breakout this week invalid unless we get a rally tomorrow.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit slow, did not sleep well.  So we've made it to Friday and still no trade.  Even if we do rally tomorrow, I may have to wait until Monday to attempt the put trade.  Due to the short term overbought condition of the market, I do not expect to try the calls.  The fact that we've stayed overbought for so long puts the odds of trying the calls even higher.  So at this point I'll wait to see the reaction to the British election and go from there.  Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.  

Wednesday, June 07, 2017

More of just hanging around as the Dow rose 37 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The market is trying to figure out what to do here.  Still short term overbought for the major indices.  Ideally I'd like to see a light volume move higher from here to attempt the SPY June put trade.  But we are running out of time in the June option cycle, so the risk increases with each passing day.  We'll get the British election out of the way tomorrow along with some testimony regarding the Russia fiasco in Washington.  That may pave the way for stocks to go higher.  Or not.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume was good.  It appears that the double bottom on the GE daily chart may not work after todays price action.  Gold dropped $8 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  We'll need to see gold hang in here or move higher to have a valid break of the long term down trend line form 2012.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It's getting late to try a trade in the June option cycle but I'm hoping that the market will cooperate.  We should get some kind of movement tomorrow with the results of the election in England.  There's no economic data to move things.  My thought is that we just spent a couple of days to digest things after moving to a new all time high.  We now should resume the trend higher to new all time highs again.  That will be the opportunity to try the SPY puts at around the 2450 level on the S&P.  Any other scenario will probably mean that we'll have to wait for a better entry point for the next trade either way.  So we'll see what happens.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  Tomorrow should be interesting.  

Tuesday, June 06, 2017

Lower again today as the Dow dropped in the final hour and closed with a loss of 47 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is now heading sideways.  A couple more days like today and the SPY June put trade will not be feasible.  The market will have to turn around here tomorrow or that trade isn't happening.  We're still short term overbought, so a pop up tomorrow might still set that trade up.  But things will have to set up just right to attempt it.  As of right now it's still a wait and see attitude for me.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  Gold found a little life today as the futures rose $14.  The US dollar was lower.  The gold shares finally got going with the XAU up 4 1/4, while GDX climbed a point.  Volume was heavy.  It appears that gold is finally breaking through its long term down trend line that has been in effect for years.  We'll have to see how it closes out the week.  This would be a very bullish development if it holds up.  It may be too late for the longer term gold share call trade that I mentioned earlier.  I'm still considering it though if this breakout holds up and we get a pullback.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Only 8 days to go in the June option cycle.  I'll need to see some sort of light volume rise from here to try the SPY June puts.  Otherwise I'll have to start looking at July.  No economic data to trade off of for the rest of this week.  We do have the Fed a week from tomorrow.  But for now we're here and it appears that we're working off a short term overbought condition before making a run at new all time highs again.  That's my guess.  The action in gold today was interesting and it could be the start of something worthwhile to the upside.  But it is only Tuesday.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday, June 05, 2017

A quiet trading day to start the week as the Dow fell 22 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  I didn't place any orders today as my thinking is that we are simply seeing a pause before we head back up.  If we are lower for the beginning of the week, I'll try the SPY June calls on Thursday or Friday.  If we start to head back up here soon,  I'll try the SPY June puts later in the week.  After todays economic data, which came in a touch weaker than expected, the rest of the weeks reporting is light.  So I expect things to be headline and technically driven for the remainder of the week.  GE was up a dime on good volume.  On the daily chart here it looks like a double bottom has been put in with a positive RSI divergence.  This could bode well for the overall market.  Gold didn't do much today despite another terrorist attack in London.  The US dollar had little change as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  They did come up from the lows of the session.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Really not much to take away from todays session.  We're still overbought for all the major indices.  I'd still like to see a move to the 2450 level in the S&P.  That would give me the confidence to try the puts if we can get there this week.  But the market rarely cooperates.  There's still no overhead resistance and todays volume was pretty light.  So I'm pretty sure there will be another attempt to move higher in the near term.  The only action that would negate that would be a sharp drop in price.  I'll still try to be patient but with only nine days to go in the June option cycle, the risk increases with each passing day.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight with the exception of the DAX.  We'll keep en eye on the overnight trading.   

Friday, June 02, 2017

Another day, another new all time high as the Dow rose 62 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  Short and medium term overbought and staying that way.  Even a weaker than expected jobs report could not derail this rally.  We came out of the sideways consolidation to the upside and there is no overhead resistance.  I still tried the SPY June puts today, adjusted the order and then canceled it.  It really seems as if long is the only way to go here.  But I will probably try this trade again in the beginning of next week.  It will be tough to do though.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume remains good.  Gold once again was up over $10 on the futures as the US dollar continues lower.  The gold stocks just don't react though as the XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on light volume.  I'm not sure what is going on but it isn't exactly bullish for the precious metal stocks.  Perhaps they're looking ahead to the expected rate hike in a week and a half.  I have no explanation.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market can last longer than you can remain solvent or something like that.  That is what this rally reminds me of.  Shorts have been squeezed and new money has hopped on board for the breakout higher.  There's still a possible RSI divergence on the weekly S&P 500 chart and the daily chart is overbought.  My thinking is that perhaps the 2450 level is the place to try the SPY June puts.  That is my only idea at the moment.  But a short trade here carries plenty of risk because until we actually see some decline, there is no telling how high this thing can go.  Any bad news is being shrugged off and that's pretty bullish.  Small stocks are leading the way with the exception of the RUT.  I'll go over all the charts again over the weekend but maybe staying on the sidelines would be the smarter play for now.  But you don't make any money with that strategy.  Europe and Asia were higher as money flows to stocks worldwide at the moment.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, June 01, 2017

The Dow took off to the upside today as the most watched index gained 135 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 5 to 1 positive.  This will turn the summation index back up.  Beginning of the month money flows and some short squeezing was probably the cause of todays price action.  The volume was good and there is no overhead resistance.  I adjusted my open order overnight for the SPY June puts and then canceled it during the morning today.  My idea of getting puts here looks simply wrong after todays price action.  Many of the major stock indices are breaking out to new all time highs.  Volume is good, so the move up is for real.  We're both short and medium term overbought but in bull market rallies that condition can last for a while.  GE was up 1/3 on average volume.  Gold was off five bucks and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Dow closed at a new all time high, finally catching up to the other major averages in that regard.  It looks like there is room to go higher as well.  It now appears that the decline that we saw yesterday was the opportunity to get long.  I'm not sure how long the run up will last but some of the individual charts in the Dow look bullish.  I do still think that the June SPY puts will work at some point but I do not know when that point is.  Perhaps early next week if we continue higher.  The VIX is very low again and I suppose I could make a case for getting some S&P 500 puts tomorrow.  There are some potential negative divergences in the RSI for the small cap indices.  But we don't see anything like that for the big caps.  So I'll take another look at things tonight and go from there.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We've got the employment report tomorrow and we'll gauge the stock markets reaction to those numbers.  We'll also see if the foreign markets rally off of the US price action today.  We'll finish things for the trading week on Friday.

Wednesday, May 31, 2017

A bit more weakness to end the month as the Dow lost 20 points on heavy last day of the month volume.  The advance/declines were about even.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The market started to sell off today but then came back.  I'm leaving in my open order for the SPY June puts but I've adjusted it to a lower price.  I do expect that we'll see some upside from here that could take the S&P 500 to new all time highs.  If the volume remains light, that will be the opportunity to try this trade.  If the volume picks up, then we are going higher than I anticipate.  We are still short term overbought for the S&P.  The Fed minutes came and went.  I'd expect tomorrow to be a quiet session ahead of the jobs numbers on Friday.  Perhaps if we get a rally out of that, it will give the chance for the SPY June put trade.  That's a lot of ifs and we'll have to see how it all plays out.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume remains pretty good.  Gold rose $11 on the futures as the US dollar was lower again.  Do the currency traders know something that we don't?  The XAU and GDX were basically flat on light volume.  The fact that gold continues to rise and the gold shares do not is not a positive sign in my opinion for the continued rise of the precious metal.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We got a signal for weakness and we have seen some in the past couple of days.  But it was not the kind of move lower that would show a lot of profit.  So I am hoping that we'll see another light volume rally here to new highs and that will be the time to get short.  That said, we know that the market rarely cooperates with our wishes.  We'll be medium term overbought after tomorrow as well.  So it is possible that things will line up in favor of trying the SPY puts.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and see how the month of June begins tomorrow.

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Lower to begin the week as the Dow shed 50 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  This should move the summation index sideways.  I put my SPY June put trade in again and I'm leaving it overnight.  I do expect one more run up here and that will hopefully get my order filled.  I'm certainly not committed to this trade for an extended time period but I do think it can work in the short term.  But only if the above scenario of a quick rise materializes.  We'll close out the month of May tomorrow followed by the jobs report on Friday.  The Dow was the relative leader lower today so perhaps we'll get the short term rise that I'm looking for.  GE was off about a dime on good volume.  There's a potential double bottom being put in here on the daily chart.  Gold fell about $5 on the futures and the US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU lost over 1 1/8, while GDX declined 1/3.  Volume was light.  The lower dollar didn't help gold and that isn't a positive for the precious metal.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A shortened trading week to deal with and today looks like many players decided to take the day off.  We were short term overbought for the major stock indices and today slightly relieved those conditions.  Volume has been pretty light lately and that is another reason not to trust the new all time highs here.  I would like to get this trade in but there is also the possibility that we simply remain overbought and continue higher.  As usual anything can happen in this game.  But I do think that getting the puts here has a chance to work so we'll have to see what the market has to say tomorrow.  If we simply head lower from here, it will be too late for this idea.  Asia was mixed with slight moves overnight, while Europe was lower.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading. 

Friday, May 26, 2017

It was one of those pre-holiday market days as the Dow lost 2 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The trading range was thin for the day with no real movement.  It was as if the summer doldrums arrived early.  There's a chance we could see this again on Tuesday but we'll wait and see.  I canceled my open order for the SPY June puts and will reconsider this idea over the weekend.  Although I am still committed to the trade for now.  Short term overbought, staying that way and that is the hallmark of a bull move.  GE lost a few cents on average volume.  Gold rose $10 on the futures and the US dollar was up a bit as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Off to a 3 day weekend for traders.  We'll come back next week to close out the month and view the employment report.  June isn't the most bullish month in the calendar but predicting a drop in this market seems impossible.  That said, I do think that a some point next week trying the SPY June puts will be worth it.  I could be wrong.  I'll have an extra day to try and figure out if that strategy is viable.  But first I think that taking a day or two off from the game isn't a bad idea.  I will get around to checking the charts as usual in the next few days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, May 25, 2017

The rally continues as the Dow climbed 70 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  We've broken through the resistance on the S&P 500.  There appears to be nowhere to go but up.  I did place an order for the SPY June puts today but canceled it later on.  However I also decided to leave in an open order overnight for the SPY June puts as well.  We're short term overbought here but could stay that way because we are in rally mode.  I do however, want to attempt this trade.  The overnight order will only be filled if we get a decent rally tomorrow morning.  Now this could absolutely be the wrong strategy here but I think it is worth a shot.  GE dropped another 1/3 and the volume was good.  GE certainly has not participated in the rally since the election.  Gold was up a couple bucks and the US dollar was a bit higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the GDP revision tomorrow along with durable goods.  It's a Friday before a holiday weekend.  I'm thinking that the players will be leaving early.  We do have some major stock indices at new all time highs with some potential negative RSI divergences.  They are only potential though.  I'm not sure that the SPY June put idea is the best thing to do here but I will be sure to put the stop loss order in if it gets filled.  Early next week could be another time to try this trade if it doesn't get filled tomorrow.  I do have a sell signal on one of my short term indicators.  However these signals can be unreliable in up trends.  RUT is under performing here and that could be a clue.  It did lead the way up but has since stalled.  Perhaps I'm only looking at the indicators that would make the put trade seem feasible.  Certainly a case can be made that we'll simply continue to rally from here.  The theory that we sold out last Wednesday on the Trump headline has proven to be valid so far.  So maybe my idea here is wrong.  We'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.  

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

It's as if last Wednesday never happened as the Dow gained 74 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading up.  The S&P 500 closed at a record high.  The small stocks are acting OK but the RUT is lagging.  We're back to short term overbought for the major stock indices.  I did place an order for the SPY June puts but it wasn't filled.  I may be early on this trade but could try again tomorrow.  The volume here is light, so I do not really trust the rise.  However if we break out tomorrow with good volume, the rally could be on.  GE continues to struggle as it lost almost 1/2 today on heavy volume.  Gold did find a bid after the Fed minutes but the futures only rose a couple bucks.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained a point and GDX added 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm looking for the next trade here but certainly there is no rush.  Both short and medium term overbought but in bull markets we simply stay that way.  We've also got a holiday week coming up so I may want to let that go by as well.  That said, if I see another light volume levitation tomorrow I may do the trade.  We're at the top of the sideways channel that's 3 1/2 months old.  The VIX has now calmed back down and is almost back under 10 again.  It's also possible that I want to put on a trade since I haven't done one in so long.  That must be guarded against at all costs.  I have my reasons for trying the SPY puts here but I could be wrong as well.  The way the market came right back after dropping hard last week tells me there are still buyers out there.  I'll reconsider things overnight and go from there.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight but both had small moves.  We'll keep an eye on what transpires in overseas trading tonight.

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Up another 43 points today for the Dow on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is heading back up but not with any conviction just yet.  Approaching new all time highs again for some of the major stock indices.  However the volume here is light and that is a concern.  The small stocks were under performers again and that is another problem.  I've been bullish for quite a while but that is beginning to change.  If we do continue higher for the next couple of days on light volume, I'll be looking for the SPY June puts.  GE was up a dime and the volume was light.  Gold was lower as the US dollar got a bounce.  The precious metal futures lost $10.  The XAU shed 2 1/3, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was average.  I'm still considering a gold share call trade with an extended time period in the coming weeks.  However for now I have to wait for an oversold condition and we are not close to that yet.  Perhaps in June.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Nothing but higher prices since the Trump debacle of last week.  It is appearing to be a one day wonder but the upside volume seems to be drying up to me.  Who knows?  Maybe we'll get the high volume breakout that I've been looking for.  The problem for me is I do not see where that would come from.  We've got the Fed minutes tomorrow and the GDP revision on Friday.  Will that be enough to move us forward in a big way?  I don't think so.  The S&P 500 has been sideways since mid-February.  It looks like a distribution top to me now, since it has taken so long to form and really nothing has happened to break prices higher.  The market has ignored a lot of bad news.  But unless price bursts higher soon, I'll be looking to get some puts.  June is not the kindest month for stocks either.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight despite yet another terrorist attack in England.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday, May 22, 2017

The bounce from last Wednesdays debacle continues as the Dow gained 90 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow and that's a plus.  The small stocks acted better too.  I looked for some ideas all weekend but came up empty.  I'm waiting for the next technical signal now and will trade it either way.  If we approach the resistance again on light volume, I'll look towards the SPY June puts.  If we pull back from here and get oversold, I'll try the SPY June calls.  Patience is the idea for now and it isn't a bad one since we just rolled into the June option cycle.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold rose six bucks on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained a point and GDX added 1/3.  Volume was light.  I'm also considering some gold share calls in the coming weeks but with the expiration in the fall.  Septembers or Octobers are what I'm looking at if they get oversold in the coming weeks.  Just a thought for now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volume continues to lighten as we move higher and that is not a positive.  However the price action since the huge one day drop is.  Perhaps if we back off from here and retest the low it will give me a chance to get some SPY June calls.  But even that scenario could go wrong if we don't get oversold as well.  I will say that we've had plenty of chances to break out higher through the overhead resistance and continue to fail.  That's not a good sign.  A breakout with volume will be the clue to buy some SPY calls because there won't be any overhead resistance.  But we haven't been able to get there yet.  Asia was higher and Europe generally lower in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Friday, May 19, 2017

Still moving up but we did finish off of the highs for the day.  The Dow gained 141 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  That should stop the decline in the summation index.  The small stocks are not out performing here and that is a concern.  They are however, oversold.  Not sure what we've seen this week as I thought that we have a distribution top in place after Wednesdays debacle.  But when the market goes down it simply goes down.  It doesn't really rally like it has in the past two days.  The problem there is that it simply could be expiration related and not the start of a new trend higher.  So many questions and so few answers.  GE finally came to life.  It gained more than 1/2 on good volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures which was disappointing considering the drop today in the US dollar.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a volatile weeks for stocks as we were shaken out of complacency, courtesy of Trump.  Perhaps the worst is over for now but you never know when another surprise in the headlines might come up.  Some will argue that it's always the case but I do think the odds go up when you've got a guy like Trump to deal with.  The market did ignore most of the noise up until this week.  As always, the market knows more than you and me.  Sticking with the technical indicators for the S&P, they've already turned back up.  One of the problems now is that by rolling into the June option cycle the premiums are already pretty high.  Add in the recent volatility and prices are more than they normally would be.  So any trade here had better be right because volatility premium will be coming out of the options as we move forward.  I'm now more inclined to believe that Wednesday was an aberration.  However I will spend the weekend trying to determine where we go from here and how to trade it.  There's no rush to trade.  I do think that the lack of small stock leadership puts a lid on any upside going out from here.  I could be wrong and I'll have a couple of days to assess the situation before moving ahead.  There's plenty of work to do.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

Thursday, May 18, 2017

Got a bounce today as the Dow came back 56 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is heading lower.  Not the greatest move up in the world but at least we've stopped going down.  There's probably more to go on the downside but how much is the question.  Yesterday certainly got the attention of all the players so we'll see where we go from here.  Getting short term oversold for the S&P 500 but not there yet.  I think the best thing to do now is let Friday pass and try and figure out what to do over the weekend.  That way you can take the time to go over possible scenarios and be ready for next week.  GE was up a few cents on heavy volume.  If GE is putting in a bottom here, that would be a positive for the overall picture in my view.  Gold was off over ten bucks on the futures as the US dollar had a bounce as well.  The XAU lost 2 1/4, while GDX shed 3/4.  Volume was good.  That's probably it for the recent bounce in gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The shock from yesterday is wearing off but we are still in an event driven theme for the market until this calms down.  The thing with Trump is that he never really does calm down but the market usually doesn't pay attention.  So we'll have to see if all the fuss is for real or not.  I'm still thinking that we just had a distribution top put in and it will be a while before we attempt new all time highs again.  But maybe I'm wrong.  Maybe this is the last of the sellers getting out of the way before we get a good volume break out to the upside.  There's always two sides to the story but I'm leaning towards the negative one at this point.  So we'll see.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.  

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Well that should be it for new all time highs for a while as the Dow got clobbered today on Trump drama.  The most watched index fell 372 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index will be heading down.  We're now at the mercy of headline risk and that is a tough environment to trade.  I'm not sure how low we'll go here but this probably isn't just a one day wonder.  I could be wrong.  It now appears that we just had a multi-month distribution and are falling away from that.  If so, support looks to come in for the S&P at 2330 and then 2280.  Trump has been in the headlines since the election but this is the first time he's had a real negative influence.  GE lost almost 2/3 on heavy volume.  Perhaps GE had the right idea all along.  Look for at least some support at 26 which is the 200 day moving average.  Gold found a bid on safe haven activity.  The precious metal futures rose $24.  The dollar continues to fall due to the uncertainty now in Washington.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on OK volume but the gains were not that great considering the circumstances.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility returned today with a vengeance.  How long this lasts is unknown.  It should provide some trading opportunities though.  With only a couple of days left in the May option cycle, looking out to June makes sense.  If and when we get to support, I'll take a look at the June SPY calls.  But it really is too early to tell what will happen from here.  The VIX is overbought here but not extremely so.  Most of the short term indicators for the major stock indices have rolled over but are not oversold.  That tells me that we probably have more downside to go.  Tomorrow should be interesting as well.  We practically closed on the low for today.  I'd advise to simply sit back and watch for the rest of this week.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight but not as much as the US.  We'll see how they fare overnight.     

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

Back to hanging around as the Dow lost 2 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The NASDAQ continues to out perform as it remains very overbought.  I'm still looking for higher prices here in the short term.  What we really need to see is a high volume breakout one way or the other to get things going.  With the small stocks doing so well there really isn't a reason to be bearish here.  The economy seems to be plugging along and the market with it.  GE lost another 1/8 and the volume was average.  Gold was up $7 on the futures as the US dollar dropped again.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  Still no love for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It doesn't appear as though I'll be getting in a trade for the May option cycle.  We'll have to look out to June.  There really isn't a clear signal at the moment as the SPY call opportunity has passed for this week in my opinion.  So patience will be the strategy for the time being.  I certainly don't want to press the issue or start to get into a guessing game.  So the sidelines are where I'll be for now.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight but no big moves.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday, May 15, 2017

We had an upside gap at the open and the Dow finished with a gain of 85 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back around but not out of the sideways pattern.  There was no weakness in the morning to take the SPY May call position and it is probably too late now.  I'll have to chalk it up to just another missed opportunity.  With only 4 days to go in the May option cycle, any trade attempted now would have a ton of risk.  I'm looking for the SPY to hit the 241 level at least.  We hit a new all time high for the S&P today and there is no overhead resistance.  GE was off almost a dime on good volume.  No doubt that GE is not participating in the move higher for the overall market any way you look at it.  Gold was up a couple bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So where do we go from here?  I'm still convinced that we'll be moving a bit higher from here but without expanding volume any rise will be sluggish.  If we get a high volume breakout I would suggest jumping aboard.  But we haven't seen that yet.  We do have the positive expiration bias in our favor this week if you're bullish.  I suppose I'll have to start looking out to the June SPY options.  Not exactly sure which way to go there yet.  However with the small stocks extremely overbought and RUT lagging the puts could be the way to go.  But as always, waiting for a decent technical signal will be key.  Europe and Asia were both higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on things tonight but it appears that there will not be any trades for me this week.   

Friday, May 12, 2017

Just another day in a listless market as the Dow fell 22 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is barely moving lower.  The NASDAQ was up again today in the usual mixed market that we have been held hostage to for the past three weeks.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the S&P.  That's one reason not to be in a hurry to get the SPY calls here.  That said, I do believe that any weakness can be bought on Monday for a short term trade.  Of course it will have to short term since there is only a week left in the May option cycle.  I canceled my open order for the calls but will probably be putting it back on Monday morning.  GE got crushed today on a downgrade and was off almost 2/3 on very heavy volume.  If GE is a precursor for the overall market then lower prices loom.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 1/8, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was light.  The gold shares had a good week but the volume just wasn't there.  Which means we'll probably be heading lower going forward.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Low volatility, mixed markets and no real price movement despite the statistics coming out.  This is a confusing set of circumstances for me.  I'm not even sure if it is worth putting on a trade next week.  I do still favor the SPY May calls for the short term but it won't be an easy trade to do.  We've stalled for so long at the level to break out to new highs that it may be getting too late.  We are either getting all the selling done before a breakout or the final lemmings are being sucked in before we drop.  Expiration week usually has a positive bias so the bulls will have that going in their favor.  One of my short term indicators is in the buy signal range as well.  I'll probably try the call trade if we're lower on Monday but I'll also go over everything this weekend to see if it is worth the risk.  Once again, the timing in and out will have to be spot on.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.    

Thursday, May 11, 2017

A sell off and a comeback today as the Dow fell 23 points on good volume again.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still trending sideways.  We were off almost 150 in the morning but buyers stepped in.  My open order for the SPY May calls wasn't filled but it did get close.  I've adjusted the order for overnight but it's possible that the opportunity is gone.  The Dow did bounce off of its 50 day moving average.  The market has repeatedly tried to sell off but has made a comeback each time.  Sooner or later this pattern won't hold up but it has so far.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  If we could put in a bottom here it would be overall constructive in my opinion.  Gold was up 5 bucks on the futures and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 2 1/3, while GDX gained almost 1/2.  Volume was better.  I don't think that this is the start of a new trend but what do I know?  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Running out of time in the May option cycle.  However I'm still willing to attempt a SPY May call trade under the right circumstances.  We'll get more inflation data and retail sales data tomorrow morning.  If we see another sell off, there's a chance that my open order could get filled.  I'm also looking for the usual positive expiration week bias to show up next week.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over and that may be a concern.  The price action in the next couple of days will tell us if it's for real or not.  I don't believe that it is just yet.  The small caps continue to hold up well and out perform the overall market.  As long as that's the case I can't get too bearish.  But that could all change at any time.  For now however, I'm going to continue to look for higher prices.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll finish up the week tomorrow.   

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

More of the same here for the market as the Dow fell 32 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index is trending sideways.  Basically moving sideways in the S&P 500 for 2 1/2 weeks.  Indicators remain overbought and staying that way.  I did place an overnight order for some SPY May calls but it wasn't filled.  I'm leaving the order in overnight.  Sooner or later we'll get some kind of breakout.  The question remains, in which direction.  I'm still looking for an upside resolution.  GE was off 1/4 on what passes now for average volume here.  We're still oversold here.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures, while the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 1 1/3 and GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Running out of time in the May option cycle.  The timing of any trade from here on out would have to be impeccable.  It can be done but you've got to have the market cooperate as well.  If we get some pullback, I'd be willing to go the other way with the calls.  If we start to rally, there is not overhead resistance so purchasing some puts would be even riskier that usual.  Not to mention the running out of time factor.  Volatility seems to have disappeared and the lack of price movement is frustrating.  So I do think that the prudent course of action remains to wait for a decent set up and go from there if we get one.  If we don't, I'll simply have to wait for the June option cycle.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Tuesday, May 09, 2017

Another day of not much but there was a little volatility in the final hour.  The Dow fell 36 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is basically moving sideways.  Another down day would change that.  Nothing new to report.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages remain overbought.  I still favor the SPY May calls between now and expiration.  If we drift lower in the next couple of days, I'll give that trade a shot.  Until that happens it's just a wait and see attitude.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Oversold here for GE.  Gold fell $5 on the futures as the US dollar rose again.  The XAU and GDX had very slight fractional losses on light volume.  The gold shares haven't followed gold lower here in the past couple of days.  Perhaps things will turn around soon.  But that's a guess as usual.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow today and that's a plus.  But the overall lack of movement in the major averages is not helping the trading.  It's great if you're a writer of options but not if you are looking for gains on directional movement.  I'm going to try not to press the issue here but I would still like to do a trade if the conditions set up properly.  No guarantees that will happen.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Monday, May 08, 2017

Another day of hanging around as the Dow rose 5 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The market tried to sell off today but could not.  The RUT is under performing here and that is a concern.  The TRAN lagged as well.  However I would still like to try the SPY May calls if we get some kind of pullback this week.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages remain overbought.  I can only watch and wait at this point with only 9 days left in the May option cycle.  I do still favor an upside breakout from these levels.  GE was off 1/8 or so on light volume.  Gold finished flat on the session and well off of its highs.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX barely moved and the volume was extremely light.  Obviously no interest here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I am going to try and not press things here as the May option cycle is running out of time.  There is however, enough time for a decent signal to materialize.  We got the French election out of the way and there is some economic data due out later this week on inflation plus retail sales.  So we'll see where things go from here.  Volatility is extremely low and that won't last forever.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Friday, May 05, 2017

Moving higher today as the Dow rose 55 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The S&P 500 hit a new all time high.  The summation index is trying to move back up.  The employment report was a bit better than expected but the market didn't really get going to the upside until midway through the session.  Short term overbought now for the S&P but it's been that was for days.  I canceled my open order for the SPY May calls as we didn't get any downside to get it filled.  It appears that this trade has passed me by.  I do not think it would be a good idea to chase it now.  I do expect higher prices early next week though.  If we do see some selling, I may try it again.  But for now it looks like missed opportunity.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was really light.  The gold futures were up a buck and the US dollar was lower.  The XAU gained 2 points, while GDX added almost 1/2.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Two weeks left in the May option cycle and it doesn't look like I'll get a set up for a trade.  The next logical way to go would be the SPY puts if we continue higher.  Which I think that we will.  There isn't any overhead resistance for the S&P 500.  There was plenty of chances over the past week for the market to drop but it simply trended sideways.  We have now broken out to higher prices.  The French election is on Sunday but the result really isn't in doubt.  It is probably already baked into the market.  I'm not sure what the catalyst will be to get things moving next week.  The employment report certainly didn't lead to the volatility that it normally would.  I still think that we're heading higher and the Dow should hit a new all time high next week as well.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend to see if there is any trade that I can do next week.  However there isn't a set up as of now and I do expect higher prices in the beginning of the week.  Perhaps a fade of that will be the play.  We'll see.  Europe was higher and Asia mixed once again.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, May 04, 2017

Another day of hanging around as the Dow lost 6 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index has turned around and is now moving lower.  We did have a midday sell off when oil dropped but the stock market recovered.  The overall market was just a bit stronger than the Dow.  Good volume lately but no movement for the major stock indices.  I'm not exactly sure what that means but I'm still looking for a positive resolution to the sideways movement we've seen lately.  I've left in my open order for the SPY May calls.  Perhaps tomorrows employment report will get things going one way or the other.  GE was off a few cents.  The short term technical indicators here are oversold.  Gold continues to fall as the futures dropped $20 today.  The US dollar fell as well.  The XAU fell 2 1/3, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was good.  Not sure what is happening with gold but commodities in general are falling.  Weakness in oil doesn't help gold either.  With both gold and the dollar dropping something has to give soon.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just a bit of weakness in the small stocks with the exception of RUT which has rolled over.  The technical indicators for RUT are mid-range.  Like I said before, RUT led us up and now we will have to see if it will lead us down.  My feeling is that the market is on the verge of something here.  I'm still looking for new all time highs.  However with the summation index now moving down, you can make a case for lower prices.  But if the market starts to take off on the jobs report, I may just have to get in and follow.  We'll see.  I probably should wait for a decent signal though and the short term technical indicators for the S&P remain overbought.  They have stayed that way for a few days and we haven't seen the usual upward price movement.  The trading is never easy.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll be on the lookout for the jobs numbers and close out the week tomorrow.  

Wednesday, May 03, 2017

A one day reversal to the upside for the Dow as we opened lower and closed higher.  The Dow edged up 8 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were negative though.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index is barely moving up.  The small stocks are now showing relative weakness instead of strength.  The short term indicators for RUT have rolled over to the downside.  RUT led us higher.  Is it about to lead us lower?  We've had good volume lately and have only been able to move sideways.  Is that a concern going forward?  It could be.  I still have the open order in for the May SPY calls.  The Fed came and went today and it was the expected non affair.  Next up is Fridays employment report.  GE showed some life and was up 1/4.  Volume was nothing special.  Gold dropped $17 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  We are back to no love for gold and that could accelerate with a strong jobs report.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Just about 2 weeks to go in the May option cycle.  I'm still looking for new all time highs for the S&P 500 before expiration but there are some warning signs starting to appear.  The under performance of the small stocks recently being a concern.  Not to mention that the short term technical indicators for the S&P remain overbought with any upside movement in the index.  Could the stock market roll over here?  Perhaps.  Sometimes the month of May can be negative.  But I do still think that this is a pause near the all time highs for the Dow and the S&P before we break out to new highs.  But the longer the small stocks lag, the less likely that outcome becomes a possibility.  So keeping an eye on things is as important as ever.  Europe and Asia were mixed last night.  I expect tomorrow to be a wait and see session before the data on Friday.  We'll keep an eye on things.

Tuesday, May 02, 2017

Another day of hanging around as the Dow rose 36 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow for a change.  The summation index continues higher.  Still short term overbought on the major stock indices.  I did place an open order for the SPY May calls and left it in overnight.  We'll have to see some decline for it to get filled though.  We've got earnings from Apple tonight and Facebook tomorrow.  They probably will be market movers.  Also we'll get the Fed statement tomorrow but I do not think that it will have much effect but I could be wrong.  There's no expected change in policy forthcoming.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was a little better.  Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've been moving sideways for a week now right at the overhead resistance.  I really believe that we'll be breaking through to new all time highs in the coming days.  Once we get through, there won't be any resistance left.  Sometimes markets can remain overbought for quite some time.  My guess is that we are in one of those times now.  I could be wrong.  However I am leaving the order for the SPY May calls out there.  Ideally we'd see weakness ahead of the jobs report on Friday and then a rally to new all time highs on the reaction to the data.  Things don't always go as planned in this game though.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye out on the overnight developments.   

Monday, May 01, 2017

The Dow hung around in positive territory all day but then dropped in the final half hour.  the most watched index fell 27 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The summation index continues higher.  The small stocks are leading the way and as long as that's the case we'll be heading up.  The S&P stalled at the near term resistance again but I do believe that it will be overcome soon.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought for most of the major stock indices.  They can remain that way during a rally.  We've got the Fed this week but it should prove to be a non event.  GE was off a nickel and the volume is light.  Gold was off $10 on the futures and the US dollar was little changed.  The XAU lost 2 1/3, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was OK.  Gold and the gold shares are back on the decline.  We'll have to see if they can hold the recent lows.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit out of sorts.  Email problems on  my end but they'll eventually get resolved.  I'd still like to try and find a way to get long here but will need to see some kind of short term decline.  It may not happen.  How ever I am firm in waiting for a decent signal because there is still plenty of time to go in the May option cycle.  We've got the jobs report out on Friday as well and that could be a mover.  The ideal scenario is a decline into Wednesday to give me a chance at the SPY May calls.  That's the idea at the moment.  Today was somewhat a partial holiday in the world markets with the May Day celebrations.  Foreign markets were quiet.  Things will be back at full strength tomorrow.

Friday, April 28, 2017

Some selling to close out the month of April as the Dow fell 40 points on average volume.  the advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  GDP was just a bit light of expectations.  We did open higher and close lower once again.  I don't think that we're running out of steam here, just moving sideways after the huge run up.  I did cancel my open order for the SPY May calls to get out before the weekend.  I'll be placing that trade again next week.  I still expect a break higher to new all time highs sooner rather than later.  GE was lower by a dime but the volume was pretty light.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was a bit lower but did come off of its lows for the session.  The XAU added 2 points, while GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Short term overbought for all the major stock indices with the exception of the TRAN.  RUT had a weak session but we'll have to see if that was just the end of the month squaring.  The small stocks continue to lead the way but perhaps they need a sideways rest as well.  May sometimes isn't the best month for stocks, so I'll have to tread carefully if I do attempt a trade for the SPY calls.  I'd prefer to see weakness in the beginning of the week and that would set me up for a long trade.  But as you know the market rarely cooperates.  I'm in a better mental state of mind now so perhaps I'll be able to make the proper decisions.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend to be ready for a fresh trading week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

Thursday, April 27, 2017

A day of hanging around as the Dow rose 6 points on pretty good volume.  The advance/declines were even.  The summation index is moving up.  The McClellan oscillator did give a signal yesterday for a big move in the next couple of sessions, so we will have to wait and see what happens tomorrow.  Perhaps the market will move on the GDP report.  I'm still looking for new all time highs in the Dow and S&P 500 before expiration.  I adjusted the open order that I have for the SPY May calls.  I think that next week around Wednesday would probably be the ideal time to enter this trade if the market cooperates.  But if it gets filled before that, I still think that it will work.  We've got the end of the month tomorrow as well.  GE dropped around 20 cents again on good volume.  The lack of upside for GE would normally be a problem for the market but it has been ignoring this so far.  It is something to keep an eye on.  Gold was little changed on the day and the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU shed 2 1/4 and GDX lost almost 1/2.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Still short term overbought on the technical indicators for the S&P and it is touching the upper Bollinger band.  However in rallies we can stay overbought for quite some time.  That is what I think we are seeing here.  The best case scenario from here would be a sideways consolidation into the middle of next week and then another leg higher.  That would let some time premium get sucked out of the SPY May options and perhaps give me the opportunity to take a position.  The small stocks remain strong here and that is a positive going forward.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.  

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

A one day reversal to the downside as we opened higher and closed lower.  Perhaps it was a sell on the news of the Trump tax plan.  The plan is actually only an outline and we don't really know what will pass in Congress to become law.  The Dow fell 21 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  Certainly a pause is due after climbing 450 points in just two sessions.  Not to mention that we have arrived at the overhead resistance of the previous all time highs for the Dow and the S&P.  So some hesitation here isn't the end of the world.  I did place an open order for some SPY May calls and I'm leaving it in overnight.  It's my belief that this rally has plenty more to go on the upside and that new all time highs are coming.  GE lost about 20 cents on heavy volume.  GE is oversold on the short term technical indicators but hasn't participated in the rally since the beginning of December.  Gold was slightly higher as was the US dollar.  The XAU was up almost a point, while GDX barely moved.  Volume was good.  The gold shares did come off of the lows for the session.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has dropped here as well and I do believe that will help support higher prices going forward.  The small stocks continue to be leaders and that is a positive as well.  Perhaps some backing and filling here and then a move to new all time highs.  I will try and get some SPY May calls before we break out but the premiums are still high.  Timing of this trade will be important once again as usual.  I do think that this is one of those times where it will pay to chase the move higher.  I could be wrong but I don't think so.  We're short term overbought but will probably stay that way for a while as we move higher.  Europe and Asia were both generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the news tonight. 

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Up we go as the Dow roared ahead by 232 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  the summation index is moving higher.  We are on our way to new all time highs for the major indices in my opinion.  I do think that you can just buy some index calls even though we're overbought.  The market will most likely stay overbought as we trend higher.  I'm thinking about placing an open order for some SPY calls tomorrow with a good until canceled stamp on the ticket.  I would like to wait for a pullback but at this rate we won't see one.  We'll get an outline of the Trump tax proposals tomorrow and that should provide more fuel for the rally.  GE lost a dime on good volume.  This stock certainly isn't participating in the rise.  I'm not sure if that is a problem or not.  Gold fell another dozen on the futures, with the dollar lower again as well.  The XAU lost 3 and GDX dropped a point on very heavy volume.  Poor earnings form ABX was the cause.  Not to mention that the long term down trend line at $1300 turned down prices again for gold.  We've entered the 5th year of the bear market for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We closed above 6000 for the first time on the NASDAQ.  RUT is trying to break out.  The small stocks are leading the way and that is bullish.  Plenty of time in the May option cycle for a call trade to still work despite the impressive run up of the past two sessions.  Those are some of my thoughts on what is going on anyway.  I haven't had a good handle on things lately but what we are seeing now looks a lot like the two run ups we've had after the US elections in November.  The market took off each time and did not look back.  I could be wrong but I still feel that calls will work for the May option cycle.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight but not as much as the US was today.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Monday, April 24, 2017

Markets rallied around the world on the French election results.  The Dow gained 216 points on good volume.  the advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index higher.  The S&P 500 has moved above the down trend line that has been in effect since the beginning of March on good volume.  Any weakness can be bought in my humble opinion.  The May option premiums are high though, with so much time left before expiration.  But the trend should be higher from here.  The VIX has moved way back down as well.  The small stocks continue to act well.  The NASDAQ is at a new all time high.  We should see new highs in the S&P and the Dow off of this move.  GE was flat on the session with heavy volume.  Here's a stock that certainly did not participate in todays rally.  Gold dropped as well as the fear factor was lifted for a day.  The precious metal futures dropped a dozen despite a decent loss in the US dollar as well.  The XAU fell 1 3/8, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was good.  We still need a high volume break to the upside at the $1300 level for gold to look constructive.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm really just considering to buy some SPY calls here just to get on board.  Sometimes when the market gets going it just doesn't look back.  We could be at one of those junctures right now.  If the market likes Trumps tax plan on Wednesday, it could be off to the races again.  Even if none of it actually comes to pass.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have turned up and have room to run higher.  I'll check the SPY May option prices again tonight but they are rather pricey.  But there will be no money made if you don't have a position.  So we'll see.  Asia was higher but Europe really took off to the upside last night.  We'll see if we get any follow through and we should.  I've just seen that Trump is proposing cutting the corporate tax rate to 15%.  That is bullish for now but my guess is that it will probably be negotiated up from there.  I really think that you need to be long here somehow.  Stay tuned.

Friday, April 21, 2017

We finished off the week with a thud as the Dow fell 31 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  We bounced around all day with the overall market a bit weaker than the Dow.  We're still trying to make up our mind what to do here.  The VIX may be trying to turn back up here and that would be a negative.  My story remains the same.  I don't have a good signal one way or the other.  Plus my read of the market here lately has been wrong.  I'm on the sidelines until I get a better idea of what to do.  GE got clobbered today, off 3/4 on very heavy volume.  So much for GE perhaps leading the way higher.  The earnings were in line with estimates but the stock still got sold off.  Gold and the US dollar were both up slightly.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are moving on to the May option cycle.  The major stock indices are not in sync at the moment.  The small stocks are still leading the way though and that is a plus.  The short term technical indicators there are getting overbought.  The big cap indicators are mid-range.  The VIX could go either way here but has at least rolled over for now.  With mixed signals like these, I will have to wait it out for now.  Perhaps over the weekend I can find some clues on what to do.  But for now it's the sidelines as the best choice for me.  I've put aside the last debacle of a trade but I still need to see some type of signal before attempting the next one.  At least that's the plan for now.  The major foreign markets have been weak of late so maybe it's time for them to turn around after the French election on Sunday.  That's just a guess as usual.  Asia was a bit higher and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  I'll be checking the charts over the next couple of days.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Up and down we go as the market is trying to figure out what to do here.  The Dow gained 174 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still basically moving sideways but another day like today would change that.  The small stocks are still acting good here so I'm still in the bullish camp going forward.  I would like to purchase some SPY May calls at some point.  Yes, I'm still looking for new all time highs if this is the beginning of the next leg up.  That however, remains to be seen.  GE was up 1/4 and volume was good.  Perhaps the recent rise in GE is a clue as to where the overall market is headed.  Gold and the US dollar both finished little changed for the day.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has returned and that has increased the price of the option premiums for now.  There is also plenty of time left in the May cycle as it really begins on Monday.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are mid-range at the moment.  I do not have any clear signals from my own indicators.  So it's a time to wait.  I'll let the expiration go by tomorrow and then assess the situation from there.  Both Europe and Asia were positive last night.  We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Opening higher and closing lower as the Dow fell 118 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was once again stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in positive territory.  The summation index is trending sideways.  As I've said before I can't quite make out what is going on here.  However with the small stocks acting well, I don't think that we're on the verge of any major breakdown.  I'm still looking at the May SPY calls.  GE was up over 1/8 on average volume.  No trades in mind here.  Gold shed over $10 on the futures as the US dollar bounced back.  The XAU lost 2 7/8, while GDX dropped 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  Gold is at some long term resistance here and a pullback isn't out of the question.  If gold can get through the $1300 level on good volume the picture would turn very positive in my view.  But that remains to be seen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The big cap indices have been slowly trending lower since the start of March.  I'm still thinking that this is simply a long consolidation before we attempt new all time highs again.  There isn't much else to report.  The Fed minutes came and went.  The usual positive option expiration week bias didn't last.  Perhaps the bounce on Tuesday was a chance to get short.  But I have to believe that any decline will be short lived.  The major indices are not in sync, therefore it appears to be more consolidation in my view.  I'm going to wait for a clear signal and go from there.  Asia was generally lower and Europe generally higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on overnight developments.

Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Back to the downside today as the Dow fell 113 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is now trending sideways.  No follow through to yesterdays gains as the day began with a gap to the downside.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow so I'm still in the bullish camp for now.  But I have to admit that I do not have a good idea of what is going on here.  The sidelines seem to be the safest place for me at the moment.  The RUT is holding up for now above the 1340 level.  As long as that holds, I'm still going to look for higher prices going forward.  GE was up 20 cents on average volume.  Gold was flat on the day despite the US dollar getting crushed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  The lack of movement in gold and the gold shares isn't positive with the drop in the dollar.  We should have seen some gains for the precious metal.  Mentally I'm again feeling a bit tired.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages are oversold but not completely.  We do have the Bollinger bands converging which implies a big move one way or the other coming up.  My thinking is that the sideways price activity that we've seen for the past month and a half is a consolidation before we head higher.  If not we have built a pretty good top and prices should fall quickly.  The recent action in the VIX indicators points to a rally coming.  However as always, the market goes where it wants.  We could turn those indicators around and the market could fall but the odds favor the opposite.  We've got the Fed minutes tomorrow and that could be a market mover.  It's also earnings season and anything goes there.  It's a time to pay attention perhaps a bit more than usual.  But like I said, I don't have a clear idea of what's going on.  Asia was mixed with Europe lower once again.  Europe could be moving in anticipation of the French election coming this weekend.  That's a guess as usual.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

Monday, April 17, 2017

We had a gap to the upside to start the day and the market never looked back.  The Dow gained 183 points on pretty light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This should move the summation index back to the upside.  After Fridays action we did have both short and medium term buy signals on a couple of my indicators.  I did place an order for the SPY April calls this morning but there was no pullback and it wasn't filled.  Today was the type of day I was looking for last week.  But what can you do?  It is frustrating sometimes though.  The volume is light but I do believe that this is the beginning of something that will take us to new all time highs.  I'll now look to the SPY May calls for the next trade.  GE was up 8 cents and the volume was light.  Gold lost a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar finished a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX were both little changed on light volume for the session.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  Some buyers showed up today and I'm sure we saw some short covering as well.  The VIX got to the overbought level where reversals take place.  We saw all of that today.  It's also options expiration week and the positive bias should be in effect.  Declines can be purchased in my opinion.  The only thing that would change my mind is if we're down tomorrow as much as we went up today.  I do not expect that to happen despite the light volume today.  I always say that light volume rallies cannot be trusted.  So we'll see how it goes tomorrow.  After last weeks debacle of a trade, I'm trying to stay positive and on an even keel.  We'll see how that goes.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye out on the developments tonight.  

Thursday, April 13, 2017

The market continues to drop here as the Dow fell 138 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This should turn the summation index lower.  I'm not sure what is going on here.  I now have solid buy signals on a couple of my indicators.  However the market has the feel of wanting to fall apart here.  We are however, not in a crash zone on the summation index.  My weekly SPY April call trade was a 100% loser.  That is ridiculous.  I was so certain that we'd see some upside that I never even put in a stop loss order.  Unacceptable.  Not to mention that the entry was wrong and we are in a holiday week.  I don't know what I was thinking but it was all wrong.  Today I actually placed another order for the SPY April calls but later canceled it.  Some of my technical indicators are in the buy zone both short and medium term.  But I really have to think about what is going on here and I do not want to make a trade to just try and make back what I just lost.  I'll consider what to do over the weekend.  GE was off 20 cents and the volume was light.  The daily technical indicators have rolled over here.  Gold was up over $10 on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower but came up from the lows of the day.  It appears like a flight to safety is in order as the US has just dropped some kind of huge bomb on Afghanistan.  But the gold shares were quiet as the XAU and GDX finished the session little changed on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Interesting markets as it looks like we are about to drop below the support of a trading range that has been in effect for weeks on some of the major indices.  Some of the technical indicators are not completely oversold so there is a chance that we are going to see some extended decline after a bounce.  That's my guess at the moment but my take on things here is shaky at best..  My own indicators indicate that upside is due.  The VIX indicators are in the area where at least a bounce is seen.  I will really have to consider getting long on weakness Monday morning.  However my confidence isn't exactly in a good place after the last trade.  I also don't want to compound the recent loss with another negative trade.  But it does look like an opportunity here for me, if I can manage it properly.  That remains to be seen.  It seems like there just were not any buyers this week, for whatever reasons.  Geo-political concerns are in the forefront as well.  I'll have to go over the charts this weekend and try and decide what to do.  Also the sooner I put the losing trade behind me, the better my mind will be at trying to figure out where to go next.  The game is never easy and the battle with myself never ends.  Asia was mostly lower and Europe was red across the board.  Plenty to ponder in the next 3 days.  For now it's Thursday afternoon and a long weekend break is upon us.

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Heading lower as the Dow fell 59 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving up but prices are not.  I don't know what to make of that.  My weekly SPY April calls are dead.  The upside I expected never materialized and is long overdue.  I will try and sell these tomorrow if possible if we get a pop at the open.  But they will be 90% or more losers.  Bad entry and trying the weekly options again was the wrong idea.  I should have cut the loss right away but expected at least some upside this week.  It never happened.  My read on things here is wrong and I'll have to return to the sidelines I suppose.  I still think that yesterdays low should be some type of bottom here.  GE was off 1/4 and volume picked up a little going lower.  Gold was up a bit again on the futures as the US dollar fell almost 1/2.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Way overdue for some type of bounce here in my opinion.  I'm not saying that it would be the start of another leg up but we are at a point where at least some upside should have occurred.  But as usual the market goes where it wants.  Light volume and no interest is not the best trading environment.  The buyers have disappeared.  After yesterdays comeback to almost unchanged, I expected some follow through to the upside.  It didn't happen.  My management of this trade has been awful.  It's a step backwards really.  If I had some more confidence, I would purchase some SPY April calls that expire next Friday.  But the prudent thing for me to do here is sit things out until the next valid signal comes around.  The SPY trade that I did this week did not fit those parameters.  I think it was more of a case of me wanting to do something rather than wait for a decent set up.  That's on me.  The toughest battle for me in the game is always against myself.  So where do we go from here?  The VIX is overbought and at levels where we should see some type of move higher in equity prices.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have rolled over.  They are  not oversold at the moment.  So it is a mixed picture at best.  With the lack of participation lately, sitting out for a while is the course that I will probably take.  I'll book the loss tomorrow and then try to collect my thoughts over the long weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower last night.  We'll finish up the trading week tomorrow.