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Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Drifting higher to end the month as the Dow gained 28 points on pretty good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving down.  The economic data today was in line or better than expected.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up again.  Some of the small stock indices have broken out to new highs.  So perhaps the overall market will follow.  The summation index is trending lower but stocks are not following.  We'll see what happens after the Fed announcement tomorrow.  GE dropped 1/4 on the same extremely heavy volume.  I'm still waiting for the dividend cut.  Gold was off $5 on the futures.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU was down 1 1/8, while GDX shed 1/4.  Volume was light.  We are short term oversold for the gold shares and gold.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  October was another positive month for the Dow and we are within striking distance of new all time highs.  We are however, pretty overbought on the medium term indicators.  We're also overdue for some type of pullback beyond the small drops we've seen so far this year.  Will something happen before the end of the year?  I certainly don't know.  We're in a favorable seasonal time period for the market but that doesn't mean we can't drop.  Earnings have been pretty solid overall so far.  It perhaps will take some kind of news event to send stocks lower.  But you cannot fight the trend and the trend is definitely higher.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see what the Fed has to say and how November begins tomorrow.

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