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Friday, October 20, 2017

This is what a blow off top looks like as the Dow climbed 165 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still basically moving sideways.  The overall market was higher but not as much as the Dow.  I don't know how long this will last but it is interesting to watch.  Shorts continue to get squeezed and the beat goes on.  I cannot explain why the market is acting as it is but you just cannot argue with price.  No overhead resistance is another factor in the rally.  No real news to speak of as the rally feeds on itself.  We'll see how far we can go and it's usually further than anyone expects.  GE opened lower and closed higher.  It gained 1/4 on incredibly massive volume.  Probably some short covering here as well.  Getting the calls early today would already show a nice profit.  The weekly chart now looks bullish and any move back down towards 22 could be the time to try the longer term calls.  Gold dropped $8 on the day as the US dollar was stronger.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on average volume.  The dollar and gold are acting in tandem now with the usual inverse relationship.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  The rally is taking on a life of its own.  Any hint of selling is met with buyers.  I'm really beginning to wonder just how far this thing will go.  Expiration week is over so we'll have to see how things progress from here.  Earnings have been OK so far and as long as that holds up the sky's the limit.  I wouldn't chase anything here because as I have said before this probably won't have a happy ending.  I could be wrong but I really do not think so.  In my view this is the fifth and final leg up from the rally that began in March of 2009.  I don't know how far it will go but I do think that it will be the end of the bull market.  Time will tell on that.  Not a lot of data out next week but we will get the first look at 3rd quarter GDP.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight but certainly not as much as the US.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

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