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Monday, October 02, 2017

The Dow soared today and finished up by 152 points on light volume.  the advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  the summation index is moving up.  I was stopped out of my SPY October put position for around a 30 % loss.  I once again moved to the next strike price and this position is showing a loss.  This will probably be my last attempt at this idea because it hasn't worked yet.  What we are seeing here is most likely the blow off top that happens every once in a while.  Where it ends is just a guess and that is what my problems is here.  Overbought, staying that way and no sign of slowing down to the upside.  There is no overhead resistance.  The small losses that I'm taking don't make up for the fact that I probably should not even be trying these trades.  However when the market turns down after one of these straight up moves, it usually comes straight back down.  GE came back to life and was up over 1/3 on good volume.  Gold was slightly lower on the futures as the US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on average volume.  mentally I'm feeling tired as I did not sleep well.  The month has started with a bang for the bulls as the rally just keeps on going.  The RUT remains strong and that is a plus.  However the stock indices are even more overbought that usual here and some kind of pause is past due.  I don't know what the catalyst will be for some downside but it will show up sooner or later.  My stubbornness in continuing to try the SPY puts has cost me some money here.  However when there's a definite sell signal in place, you've got to give it a shot.  The negative divergence on the weekly SPY chart is still place as well.  So we'll see if this SPY trade works out.  Not looking good now.  Europe and Asia were mostly higher overnight but not as much as the Dow.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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