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Tuesday, October 03, 2017

The juggernaut rolls on as the Dow gained 84 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues higher.  It sounds like a broken record but there is nothing stopping this market at the moment.  I was stopped out of my SPY put trade again for another 30% loss and I rolled into the next strike price again.  The 30% loss is getting to be like a broken record as well.  This is the classic example of where a market can stay more overbought than a trader can remain solvent.  Not a lot of money involved here but the losses are starting to pile up.  My fear is that the moment I abandon this idea is when we will start to drop.  However we are so stretched right here that if this trade doesn't work now I'll be throwing in the towel.  Perhaps the jobs number on Friday will be a downside catalyst.  That's more of a hope than anything else.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  It looks like GE has plenty of room to go higher here and perhaps the bottom has been put in.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU was up about a point and GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We are way overextended in the major stock averages and a sell signal is in place.  However we just keep climbing higher.  It's quite a blow off and probably has more room to go at this rate.  My strategy to keep moving up the strike price for the SPY puts here is wrong.  Hence, today is the last day that I'll try it.  There really is no telling how high this thing will go before falling back to earth.  I do believe though, that when we start to drop it will be on the same trajectory as the rise.  That is usually how it goes.  But when we actually fall is unknown.  Europe and Asia were both higher as we have a worldwide rally taking place.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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