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Wednesday, October 18, 2017

The Dow took off today and rose 160 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index continues to track sideways.  Good earnings news from IBM fueled the rally.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow and that is a warning sign.  But we have seen warning signs for weeks and yet we haven't seen even a hint of a decline.  I'll say it again, when this ends it will be badly.  The straight up nature of the rise almost predicts its eventual failure.  But we'll enjoy the ride for now.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  This is one stock that hasn't participated in the rise.  Maybe that will change with its earnings on Friday, maybe not.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures as the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  Usually when the Dow leads things higher we're near the end of a move higher.  And it certainly led things up today.  That doesn't mean we can't go higher.  But as the rally continues unabated to the upside with no pause, it just makes the inevitable drop that much more volatile.  That's my opinion but I've seen it happen before.  However I don't know when it will occur now.  There's still no overhead resistance and there aren't any sellers.  Extremely overbought on all time frames day after day.  It won't end well.  But again, I don't know where the end is.  Well at least I stopped laddering up on the SPY puts a couple of weeks ago.  Europe and Asia were higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the markets overnight.

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