Thursday, July 31, 2008
Back to the downside as the Dow lost 205 points on good volume. Advance/declines were about 2 to 1 negative. We were down most of the day but sold off in the last hour when Big All started flapping his gums. Volume has been lighter on the down days lately though. That's it for July. The volatility never ceases. It isn't easy out there. Gold gained $10 but was up double that early. The XAU lost 3 points. GG reported earnings and they didn't have any. They reported a loss. The gold shares were higher early and all sold off. ABX and NEM were both up 1 1/2 and finished negative. Even GG was up a buck at one point but ended up down 1 1/2. I got blown out. The first GG trade lost over 90% and the next one lost over 80%. The first trade was the biggest loss of the year. Ouch. No discipline and throwing good money after bad. No excuses there, just stupidity. GE lost 3/4 on average volume. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. Still getting a buy signal for the gold shares and have for 2 weeks while they've sold off. Oversold and staying there like we just saw on the stock indices. They can go lower than you think. After a couple trades like I've just had, you need to regroup. Unless I get a really good signal in the OEX, I'll be on the sidelines for a while. I'm still a believer in the gold shares eventually but after today, I'll be sitting it out for a while. That's what I'll be trying to do. The battle is always internal. The markets are just there, you decide what and when to trade. So I think the right thing to do at this point is to step aside and try to regain the discipline that has recently been lost. Employment report tomorrow and the start of August. At this rate, anything goes.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Continuing higher as the Dow tacked on another 186 points on good volume. Advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive. Perhaps that's it for retesting the low. Seems like it at this point. This summer has seen some incredible volatility in the indices so far. You've got to be quick and make the adjustments. I can't say that I've been up for the challenge yet. Gold lost around $14 on the December contract. However we had a turnaround in the gold shares as the XAU gained almost 2 points. We sold off hard early and that should be the lows of this move in the gold shares. ABX and GG were off over 3 points early. They both ended off fractionally on very heavy volume. NEM was flat. They've formed hammers on the daily candlestick charts. Earnings out for ABX and GG tomorrow. I'll need to get out of the GG calls. Today was the day to be buying them but I didn't wait long enough. GE was up 1/2 on average to light volume. Would have liked to see it move higher with the nice move in the Dow today. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well. Patience and discipline are required to be successful in the game. I really need more. I easily could have waited on the gold shares but didn't. I also should have already taken the loss on the first GG purchase. As usual, the only fight going on here is with myself and not the markets. I do think the gold shares will be setting up for a nice gain later on. Perhaps it even started today but I think we need more time to form a bottom. I could be wrong. We'll see what happens with the earnings tomorrow.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Back to the upside as the sellers disappeared for the day. The Dow gained 267 points, wiping out yesterdays loss. Volume was a bit higher than yesterday. Advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. Not oversold anymore. Tough to trade when it gets like this. I'm going to have to wait for a decent signal to trade the OEX. Plenty of time in the option cycle. Gold lost around $10 today and the XAU fell 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM all lost more than a point on decent volume. I bought some more GG calls. It is strictly an earnings play. Earnings are out on Thursday morning and we are so oversold here that I am expecting a pop to the upside. ABX reports then as well. This has to be a short term play because the fundamentals for gold here have changed. The dollar is rallying and the flight to safety caused by the recent stock market sell-off has ended. I do think that gold will look like a better long trade in the next couple of months. GE was up 3/4 but the volume was light again. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep well. The risk in this new GG trade isn't that much, money wise. I think it has a good chance of working out if I keep the short term time frame in mind. That's not to say that we couldn't just keep on falling here in gold. We could. I should be out of both of these trades on Thursday, Friday at the latest depending on breaking news. We'll see.
Monday, July 28, 2008
No buyers on Monday as the Dow lost 240 points. Volume was light as of lately and the advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Moving to oversold territory short term. Perhaps a chance at some OEX calls coming up. A little more downside should do it. I do think the recent lows will hold up here but I could be wrong. Gold didn't do much today, up a touch. The XAU managed almost a half point gain but was up 5 early. ABX up 1/3, GG up 2/4 and NEM down 1/4. All on unspectacular volume. Couldn't hold the gains even with the market dropping, flight to safety factor and that's not a good sign. I guess I'm holding on to the GG calls until the earnings Thursday morning. I'd still like to get some more but... Probably best to take the loss and move on. GE lost a buck on light volume. That really tells the story, the volume. No interest here late in July. Perhaps that will change tomorrow but they're just weren't any buyers today. Mentally I'm feeling as good as can be expected I guess. The gold shares are oversold but maybe they just stay that way. Tough call. I'll check things over again tonight. End of the month coming up as well. It wouldn't hurt to tread lightly I suppose, considering I'm holding a losing position. Sometimes it just doesn't work out and this is one of those times.
Friday, July 25, 2008
No follow through to the downside today as the Dow gained 22 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume looks to be summer Friday light. We have bounced and fell back. There isn't really anything going on here at the moment in my opinion. Sideways to higher should be the norm unless we go down and retest the lows. If we retest the lows, it will be a chance to try some OEX calls. If not, I guess it's the sidelines. Gold was up about $5 today and the XAU gained 1 1/4. ABX was flat, GG off a touch and NEM up a touch. Volume was light as the interest in the gold shares has waned. I did put in an order to dump the GG calls but it wasn't filled. I also thought hard about buying some other GG calls but didn't. I think the underlying theme for owning gold has changed as the market stabilizes and the dollar gets a bit stronger. That will change but not at the moment. Earnings for ABX and GG coming up. Buy signal still in effect and strong. But it isn't working. GE was off bit on light volume. It has the feel of something that wants to go higher. Not trades there though. Mentally I'm doing OK. The GG call trade will be a loser. Now what's the difference if it's 70% or 80%? Not much really. I'd like to wait around for the earnings but even that won't help at this point. The problem is staying in a losing trade takes your attention away from other opportunities. And it affects what you do next. It shouldn't of course but those are the realities of the game. I'll ponder it over the weekend and go from there. Friday afternoon and time for a break. My thinking is that summer is finally taking hold in the markets and the volatility will slow down. We'll see.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Back to the downside today as the Dow dropped 283 points. Advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative and the volume was OK. I don't think it's the beginning of a major decline here. A retest of the recent lows is in order and this could get us started. I'll be looking for some OEX calls if we get back to the recent lows or become short term oversold. Gold was flat today and the XAU lost 3 points. ABX and GG were basically flat today while NEM was up 1 3/4 with good earnings. The volume was good on all three issues. The gold share buy signal reading that I look at is at the highest I've ever seen it. I almost bought some more GG calls today but didn't have the guts. Perhaps if I would have exited the losing position I'm in earlier this week I would have bought them. Can we keep going down here on the gold shares? Of course we can but the odds now favor some type of bounce at the least. GE was off 1/2 on average volume. Considering the drop in the overall market, GE held up pretty well. It might be a place to look to get long if the decline continues. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept well. The line between success and failure gets pretty thin sometimes. That's how I'm feeling at the moment. It's not an easy game as I've said in the past. You've really got to on your game at all times. It's hard to do consistently but that's part of the challenge.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Continuing overbought as the Dow tacked on another 30 points. Advance/declines were positive and the volume was good. I'd expect some type of pullback in the next couple of days because we won't just be going straight up. Money has been coming back into stocks with short covering and the selling of bonds. That's my guess. Gold got clobbered again, down $25. They pile in and they pile out. Unfortunately I'm on the wrong side. The dollar got even stronger today. The XAU lost 9 3/4 points. ABX off 3 3/4, GG lost 2 3/4 and NEM fell 2 points. All on heavy volume. My GG calls are dead, I'm waiting for the oversold bounce to dump them at a loss. But at this rate, who knows? Maybe it's too late but they're not at a nickel yet. I guess I got greedy but the buy signal isn't working this time around. It is even stronger than it was but we keep dropping. I can't figure that out. GE was up 3/4 on good volume. Missed out on that one. It too, remains overbought and staying there. The tone of things has changed here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I suppose I should have let the first week of the new option cycle pass in retrospect. There were signs that the GG trade may not work but there are always questions in the game. You try your best and that's all you can do. You've got to take risks but you also need to pick your spots. Gold will be back but not anytime soon to save the GG trade. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
The rally continues as the Dow turned around from early losses and posted a gain of 135 points on OK volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. Summation index to the upside as the McClellan oscillator continues higher as well. So are all the sellers gone for now? It appears that way. I still think we'll retest the lows at some point. Overbought and staying that way for now. Gold got clobbered as the dollar rallied and oil fell. The dollar did the exact opposite of what I had expected. Gold lost $15 and the XAU dropped 7 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower on good volume. ABX and NEM held up rather well only off 1/2. GG got killed on good volume, down over 2 1/2. I had an overnight order in for GG calls and it was filled. It is already at a 50% loss. That was a mistake. There is no more relative strength in GG. It is now the weakest of the group. Earnings in a week and I don't think I'll wait around for that. There is still a decent buy signal on the gold shares but it isn't working this time. I don't know why. GE was up 80 cents on good volume. I suppose I should have been looking at the calls there but hindsight is always correct. Mentally I'm feeling fine, slept good. Sometimes you are just flat out wrong and it costs you. That's what's happening with this GG trade. There was a reason the volume was weak to the upside yesterday and it lagged. I should have waited for a better set-up. Not to mention there is so much time left in the August cycle that there was no reason to be in a hurry. So the best course of action should be to cut the loss and move on. Hopefully I can manage that.
Monday, July 21, 2008
The Dow lost 29 points on Monday light volume. Advance/declines were positive. Short term overbought for now. Plus the market is selling off in the aftermarket due to bad earnings. However the summation index has turned around and a retest of the lows is in order. So it is kind of a mixed bag but I think the decline is over for now. I don't think we'll see anything substantially below 1200 on the S&P 500 in the near future. I could be wrong. Gold was up around $5 today and the XAU gained over 4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher but the volume was nothing special. I had an order in again for some GG calls but wasn't filled. In fact GG only managed to gain 1/2 while ABX and NEM both tacked on over a point. So I'm wondering what is going on there. I might leave in an overnight order for GG again, we'll see. A lot of time on the options here and I don't like to buy them early. However the buy signal is still there but weaker now with todays positive action. The dollar had a bad day and there is a chance that if the dollar gets weaker here, we go to new lows for the greenback. That would support gold. It's only a guess but it is looking like a possibility on the charts. GE lost over 60 cents on light volume. No trades there for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept all right. Trying to figure out what to do with gold here. NEM earnings on Thursday. ABX and GG Thursday of next week. We just had a lot of volume and volatility in gold the past 2 weeks. I can't expect things to continue like that. The fact that GG, which has been the leader recently, didn't participate in the rally today concerns me as well. I still might take a shot at it here. But it is summertime and I would expect things to slow down at some point. Maybe not?
Friday, July 18, 2008
Another 50 points to the upside for the Dow on expiration Friday. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume looks OK. So we held on this week and the bottoming process for this decline has begun in my opinion. The summation index is trying to turn around to the upside and I believe that it will. It's as negative as it gets. That doesn't mean we can't go lower in the averages later on. The VIX hit the low 30's this time around but not as high as previous washouts. Perhaps now we will see the traditional summer doldrums in the market. Gold futures lost around $13 but the XAU gained a point. The XAU dropped yesterday in response to the aftermarket sell-off in gold. ABX, GG and NEM were mixed and the volume was lighter than we've seen lately. I had an order in for some GG calls but it wasn't filled. There is a ton of time premium in the options with the August cycle just starting. I'm still seeing a buy signal for the gold shares though. However we could get less action here as well now as summer takes hold. But that's just a guess. GE was unchanged on light volume. Not thinking of a trade there but I'll look at it closer this weekend. Mentally I'm a bit tired but did get some sleep. I have an idea of what I want to do here but will check things over the weekend. No need to rush things as there is plenty of time. However the buy signal for the gold shares probably won't last next week so I'll have to ponder it the next 2 days. But for now it's time to take a break. It's summertime, the weekend and a rest is in order.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
The bounce continues as the Dow gained another 200 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. We've put in a near term low for now. We should back and fill from here. That's my guess at the moment. I doubt we will just go straight up. We'll see. Gold futures ended up $8 today but the XAU lost 3 3/4 points. Gold is falling in the aftermarket. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower on heavy volume. ABX is showing better relative strength now. There is a buy signal for the gold shares and I did put in an order for GG calls but canceled it. We have fallen sharply from the highs of Tuesday in the gold shares on good volume. Up trend lines have been broken. We are reaching oversold rather quickly. I'm going to go over the charts tonight and perhaps get some calls on weakness tomorrow. I think the earnings are due in the August option cycle as well. GE was up a touch on average volume. Getting overbought short term there and haven't said that for quite a while. Mentally I'm doing OK. For some reason I'm hesitating on the gold signal. It isn't that I don't believe it but there is a lot of time left on the options. I'm also thinking that the volatility will have to take a break at some point and it is the summer. I also think that is true for the overall market as well. So I don't want to sit in a position and watch the time premium fade away. But that's just some thoughts, not what the market will actually do in all likelihood.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
The post is late today as I had an appointment at 10am PST that took up the remainder of the day. And what a day it was as we finally got the short covering massive up day that I had been looking for. The Dow was higher by 277 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. Tuesday was capitulation day and that low of 1200 for the S&P 500 should hold for now. We will be bouncing upwards from here probably for a couple of days. The summation index should start to turn up shortly. There may be a retest but that will be a chance to get long in my opinion. Gold lost about $15 today and the XAU was down 5 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down again on good volume. There is a buy signal for the gold shares here again. I may wait this time because the other technicals aren't as sold out. However GG was much lower and made a nice comeback during the trading day. GE was up a buck on good volume. Perhaps I'll choose to try GE again on a pull back. It was going to happen sooner or later. Mentally I'm tired at this point. It's been a long day and I'm looking forward to some rest. 2 days on the option cycle and I won't try anything here, will I? Doubtful but you never know.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
It was another rock and roll day as the volatility is never ending. The Dow lost 92 points on what looks like almost 3 to 1 negative advance/declines. The volume numbers are skewed at the moment but I must assume it was heavy again. I thought today could be the end of the decline when we came back to be positive after being down about 250 points early. But we faded again at the close. There should be some positive divergences in the McClellan oscillator here. And again, the summation index is blown out to the downside. However this decline is relentless. I was thinking of getting some OEX calls for the end of expiration but now I doubt it. Gold had a wild day as well ending up $5 after opening much higher and then selling off for a loss during the day. The XAU dropped 5 1/4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower on extremely heavy volume. GG led the way, down over 3 points after opening up 1 1/2 points. It had a 10% price swing in one day! Crazy times. We are on the cusp of another buy signal for the gold shares here. Only 3 days in the July options though. The dollar was lower today but so was oil. Perhaps I'll try the GG calls here but it's risky. GE lost a 1/2 on heavy volume and was down a buck more than that early on. And so it goes. Mentally I'm doing OK, slept well enough. I still get the feeling that we will be putting in a trading bottom here. Perhaps the lows of today will hold tomorrow and we'll take off from there. But that's just a guess. These are extraordinary times in the markets at the moment. The selling just doesn't stop. It will but I really don't know when. I'm back looking at the gold shares but todays action was pretty intense, especially for GG. It was a one day reversal to the downside. Other than that I think that maybe the best course of action is to sit it out for a while until things settle down. Easier said than done. Opportunities are created here as well. Intel has reported better earnings than expected but nothing like that seems to matter in this market. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Trying to stabilize here but it hasn't happened yet. The Dow lost 46 points on good volume once again. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 to the downside as the overall market was weaker than the Dow. I didn't think we would go on like this for so long but it continues. Perhaps we'll just taper down into the expiration. I still think there will be a giant short covering upside move at some point. But I've said that for a couple of weeks now. Summation index still pointing down and it is about as low as it goes. Gold continued higher today, up another $13. The XAU rose over 6 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher on good volume. GG led the way up 2 3/4. I dumped the GG calls but I should have held on for a better price. However the buy signal for the gold shares is off now. That said, the gold indices closed on their highs and there is probably more room to run here. I'll take the 280% gain and try to move on. There is always room for improvement. I should have and could have done better. But at least that trade had a decent game plan, to get long on any pull back. We broke out, which I missed. Gold then pulled back towards the breakout point and gave you a chance to get long again. It then took off again from there. I was fortunate to get some calls on the pull back. GE was down 1/2 on average volume. I tried and failed there but who knows? August calls perhaps? The market can't go down forever and GE most likely would move with it. Mentally I'm tired. Didn't get enough sleep and the trading takes its toll. I always try and do my best with each trade but it doesn't always seem that way. Risk is something that can't be taken lightly. Risk must be dealt with in a positive manner to be successful. It's hard to know when to take it and when to eliminate it. There are 4 days left in the July option cycle. I would like to perhaps try an OEX call trade at some point. But the more prudent thing at this juncture might be to look out to August. Not try and do something stupid here for the rest of the week. But you never know. These are interesting times to say the least.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Another crazy day as the summer doldrums are nowhere to be found. The Dow dropped 127 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. It could have been worse. We were down more than double that at one point. But we did come all the way back only to fall again. That's the kind of market we're in. Mortgage troubles in the headlines today. Summation index continues lower. I don't have the answers. I still think it's got to turn around but it hasn't. Gold was a safe haven favorite, up $18. The XAU jumped 7 1/2. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over 2 bucks on extremely heavy volume. The GG calls are doing fine at the moment. But that could change in an instant. However the price action with heavy volume says there is more room to the upside. We'll see. GE opened lower, was up 1/2 and then ended pretty much unchanged on heavy volume. I dumped the calls I had at the open. The market was so bearish at the beginning, GE never had a chance. The premium from the earnings was sucked out and it turned a slight winner at the close yesterday into a 60% loser. Yeah I could hang on for a 100% loss next week probably but why bother? It was a scalp trade that turned into a longer term hope the earnings are good trade. I should have gotten out with the small profit when I had the chance. The whole trade was stupid to begin with. When you make stupid trades you lose money, when you make smart ones you make money. Mentally I'm tired, not enough sleep and volatile markets. Mistakes are part of the game and I'm moving on from the GE debacle. Not a lot of money involved but a loss is still a loss. The markets are really nervous here but this can't go on forever. A check of the charts over the weekend and some rest are in order. We'll see if there is any news over the weekend and go from there.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
No follow through to the downside as the Dow rose 81 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were positive but not by much. We came back in the last hour instead of selling off as we did yesterday. So what happens next? My thinking is that we have to turn the summation index around at some point. It may as well be now. But who knows? We've stayed negative for quite some time. There is no reason it just won't continue until expiration. So we'll see. Gold was up 13 bucks today and the XAU gained 5 points. It was a choppy session though for the gold shares and they finished well off the highs again. ABX up 2, GG and NEM up about 1 1/2. Volume was high on all of them. Moving higher here and still the buy signal remains intact. Interesting. The GG calls are back in the black but now it seems as though ABX has taken the lead in price movement. Perhaps I'll dump them tomorrow. GE rose 40 cents on heavy volume. It was all over the place. Short covering perhaps ahead of the earnings tomorrow? The calls are showing a slight profit again. That could all change tomorrow at the open. Regardless, I will be selling these things tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Trying to make sense of what is going on here but I haven't in quite a while. GE earnings premium to be taken out tomorrow so that has to be taken into consideration. The gold shares aren't keeping up with the metal and that is worrisome. There's always questions without clear answers in this game.
Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 237 points on good volume. Advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. Perhaps yesterday was all the bounce we could manage. Everything is getting sold now and I have no reasons. Summation index still pointing down and it is not turning. Oversold and staying there. It won't last forever but it has lasted longer than I would have thought. It's a liquidation of stocks and I won't begin to pretend that I know why. Gold was up 5 bucks today but the XAU lost a 1/2 after being up by 6 points. ABX and GG had small gains while NEM lost 1/2. Volume was average and these issues too had nice gains and gave them all back. The dollar was lower and oil flat. The GG calls showed some profit early but are now in the red again. I'm about at the point to just dump them but the buy signal for the gold shares remains. GE gave back almost all of yesterdays gains, off 85 cents on average volume. I cannot believe that the calls I have are so far out of the money yet still worth something. It's all earnings premium that will be sucked out at the open on Friday with the earnings release. Unless it just continues to fall apart tomorrow and then even the earnings won't save them. Mentally I'm feeling better, got a good nights sleep. The charts for the market and what I have positions in look very bearish after todays action. Things will have to turn around quickly or there will be losses. But it's all part of the game. I probably should be on the sidelines here because the market is not responding to the usual cues. I'm seeing some technical readings that don't make sense given the underlying action. I have to believe in the gold share buy signal because it has worked so many times before. Only 7 days left on those GG calls though. GE is another story because it did turn around but today negated that. I suppose I'll just wait for Friday there now.
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
Finally a bounce as the Dow gained 152 points. Advance/declines were positive for a change and the volume was heavy again. I don't think that it's going to be straight up from here but it could be the beginning of a bottoming formation. I don't think the real short covering has begun yet. I could be wrong. Gold lost $5 today and the XAU fell 3 points. The is another buy signal here for the gold shares. We were even lower earlier. ABX, GG and NEM were all lower on average volume. The GG calls are in the red. Getting short term oversold there. GE was up almost a buck on good volume. The calls there are now showing a small profit. Perhaps GE is leading the way back up. Earnings out on Friday but now things get interesting. I might just have to take the profit ahead of the earnings to avoid the risk. We'll see. I have an open order to sell the calls if the target price is hit. Mentally I'm tired again as I did not sleep well again. I still think we will have a pretty good downside day by the end of the week and Friday could fit the bill. But it's all up for discussion at this point. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Monday, July 07, 2008
Posting a bit early today as we have just closed. It was a volatile day up, down, up and back down again. The Dow lost 57 points on good volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative and the volume was good. We were up over 100 and down over 150 during the day. The last hour was crazy up and down. No summer doldrums here. Still oversold and no end in sight. As I've said before, I am waiting for the massive short covering up day to appear. Not yet. Gold lost around $6 today and was lower earlier. The XAU dropped 3 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all down and the volume was good. Perhaps the buy signal won't work this time. My GG calls are right back where I bought them with GG off almost a buck today. The dollar bounced around and oil was weaker. GE was up a touch on good volume. It was higher earlier. The GE calls are still under water and going nowhere really. Earnings on Friday. If we don't get a move up before then I may as well hold on. The earnings announcement is keeping more premium in these than usual. Otherwise they'd be dead. And they might be anyway. Mentally I'm tired, did not sleep well. The volatility isn't helping either. The summation index is still pointing down and at levels where it normally would turn around. But that hasn't happened. I don't know why. Other indicators are not showing as oversold of a condition. So on we go. At some point here soon, I am going to exit my positions and sit on the sidelines. Perhaps I should already be there.
Thursday, July 03, 2008
We ended 73 points higher on the Dow in a holiday shortened session. Volume was light and the advance/declines were negative yet again. The overall market was weaker than the Dow. The employment report was weak again. The market remains oversold. I'm still waiting for one of those multi-hundred point short covering up days. It isn't happening. Gold fell over $10 as the dollar rallied after the ECB meeting. Short covering in the dollar there for sure. I got another buy signal for the gold shares early. I bought some GG calls. The XAU dropped 1 1/2 on the day but was much lower early. ABX, GG and NEM all lost ground today on lighter volume. GG was off 3/4. My thinking is that the past 2 days was the snap back to the breakout but I could be wrong. The volatility in GG has been higher relatively lately, so I chose that over ABX. Either one will work if the theory is correct. GE was up 40 cents on light volume. I really thought about selling out the calls today and taking the loss. Regardless of the earnings next Friday. I will think hard about that over the weekend. Technically it's got room to go on the upside but the technicals haven't meant anything in that issue lately. Mentally I'm feeling tired, did not sleep as long as I would normally. It is really time for a break here and I'm looking forward to the long weekend. There haven't been any summer doldrums yet. My thinking is that it will be volatile into the July expiration and then settle down for a bit after that. But who knows? I'll be checking things over the weekend but for now it's time to relax.
Wednesday, July 02, 2008
The Dow broke to new lows today, down 166 points. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative and the volume was heavy again. It seems as if nothing will hold this market up. Oversold and staying there. When will it end. I don't know. All rallies are being sold and there has not been the usual short covering burst to the upside. Employment report tomorrow and is there any doubt we will sell-off when it's released? Gold gained a couple of bucks while the XAU dropped over 7 points. What's going on here? Profit taking before the ECB meeting I suppose. It almost puts the gold shares at another buy signal. Perhaps tomorrow. ABX, GG and NEM all down on good volume. ABX lost a buck and the others over $2. The dollar fell again today. I suppose I could get some calls tomorrow if there's a decent signal. We'll see. GE lost 65 cents on lighter volume. I should have just gotten out earlier this week because this was supposed to be a bounce trade. Another mistake. GE would have to rally 10% for this thing to work. Is it possible? Not in this market regardless of the earnings next Friday. Mentally I'm recovering form the dentist and I didn't sleep well so I'm a bit tired. Not the ideal conditions for trading decisions. The selling continues and it is a market that I'm not familiar with. No bounces and simply lower. A water torture decline. Haven't had that blowout down day that signals the bottom. Perhaps tomorrow.
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Well the market is trying to hang on here. The Dow gained 32 points after being off as much as 170. Advance/declines were negative and the volume was extremely heavy again. It's working off the oversold condition but we really aren't seeing much of a bounce. That could lead to even more trouble. Interesting times indeed. Where we go from here, I don't know. The summation index is in negative territory and about at an intermediate term buy signal. But nothing conventional has been working lately. Employment report on Thursday and a shortened session for the holiday. Gold was up another $15 today and the XAU gained 2 1/4 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all higher, GG by 2 bucks. Volume there remains heavy. The dollar lost a bit of ground today. ECB meeting on Thursday too. GE was up another 40 cents on heavy volume again. Could this be the bottom in GE for the time being? We'll see. I have an order in to dump the calls at a profit if it ever gets there. The timing was all wrong on the entry there. Yes, it was a dumb trade to begin with. Earnings Friday of next week. I really hope it doesn't come down to that. Mentally I'm doing as well as can be expected. Trying not to think of the missed gold trade and going to the dentist later this afternoon. So things could be better. Still waiting for a pullback in the gold shares but it isn't coming. So we go to tomorrow. There is a lot of fear in the market and that usually leads to a bottom. However my call/put ratio isn't as bullish as it could be and my TRIN reading isn't as oversold as at other times when we formed decent bottoms. We'll see what happens.