Friday, November 06, 2009
The Dow gained 17 points today after the employment report. Volume looks to be a bit light again and the advance/declines were about even. The employment report has come and gone. It really didn't do much to the market when all was said and done. The summation index is trying to turn around here. We'll see if it does. Overbought now on a short term basis. Gold continues to the upside gaining another $6. The XAU rose 3 points. ABX and GG gained about a buck. NEM up 1 3/4. Volume was good. The dollar didn't do much. The gold shares are overbought as well but continue higher. I'll try the calls again if we get any type of pullback. Money is flowing there. Mentally I'm a bit tired today. I did have a winning trade this week but it should have been much better. There's still 2 weeks to go on the November options and I'll probably try something else. But you never know. I need to do the work over the weekend and get ready to be focused on next week. My thinking is we will get some type of pullback in the overall market next week and then head higher into the expiration. Barring some unforeseen event. The weekend has arrives and it's time for a break.
Thursday, November 05, 2009
A pre-employment report rally as the Dow gained 203 points on lighter than lately volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. I expected a wait and see type of day but no. Does this bode well for the report tomorrow? We'll see. Summation index trying to turn back up. Perhaps the decline is over. Still 2 weeks left on the options for November. We'll have to see if there is follow through tomorrow. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU rose a point. ABX and GG had fractional moves to the upside, while NEM was flat. Volume was lighter than usual. The GG earnings had a muted effect. I may try the gold shares one more time here in November. If we get a bit of a pullback in gold. Could be risky though. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. With the action in the overall stock market this week it appears that the decline is over. Once the summation index turns up we should move to new recovery highs. I'm not sure gold will follow, considering we gained 200 points today and the gold shares barely budged. So there's things to think about as usual. I was considering trying some GE calls here as well. But let's see tomorrows report and reaction first.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
We opened up strong and rallied after the Fed but then gave most of it back. The Dow gained 30 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. We were up well over 100 points a couple of times. The Fed said nothing new so now we wait for the employment report on Friday. Summation index still pointing down but it might be trying to turn up soon. The overall market was weaker today as we flip flop with that scenario day after day. Gold had another good day and another record high. We were up $8 in the aftermarket. The XAU only gained 1 1/3. The gold shares were mixed with ABX and NEM up about a buck on strong volume. GG was the laggard and lost 1/4 on good volume. GG was weak all day ahead of the earnings and I was stopped out of the GG call trade. I moved the stop up after seeing the weakness. I kind of wish I still was in the trade. The dollar was weaker today and should head even lower. Gold is rallying strong. GG was weak all day and my stop was barely hit. The trade gained about 150% but I feel it could and should have been much more. Who knows, I may try it again before expiration. Not sure why GG was the weakest of the bunch but that's the one that I owned and you just have to deal with it. We'll see how it reacts to the earnings. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept better. The market remains volatile here. Might stay that way for a while. I wouldn't expect much movement tomorrow ahead of the employment report but anything can happen. I'll try to put the GG trade behind me and move on. It was one of the rare winners for this year.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
It was pretty much a sideways day as the Dow lost 17 points on average volume. Advance/declines were positive. It looks like we are waiting on the Fed tomorrow. Summation index still heading lower. Technically we're still a bit oversold on a short term basis but I believe anything can happen here. The internals are the opposite of yesterday, with the overall market stronger than the Dow. So we'll see what the Fed says and how the market reacts. Gold had a stellar day and broke out to a new high, up $30. The XAU rose 10 points. ABX, GG and NEM were all up over 2 1/2 on heavy volume. All of a sudden the gold shares are looking better. A nice move higher on expanding volume and that is bullish. My GG calls are now firmly into the black. The dollar was higher today and it didn't matter to gold. We're not overbought on the gold shares yet but now the problem is just how long do I hold onto these calls. We've still got 2 1/2 weeks on the options. Looks like I'll be holding on to the calls through the earnings announcement tomorrow after the close. Mentally I'm doing OK, could have slept more. I still think that the market is in a precarious position here. And that will affect what happens in the gold shares. However todays action points to higher prices near term. I also can make a case for a much higher target for the gold shares here that would turn my trading year around. But that's a stretch. None the less, it is a possibility.
Monday, November 02, 2009
Volatility has returned as the Dow was up well over 100 points, gave it all back and then some, only to return to the upside. We gained 76 points on the first day of the month. Advance/declines were slightly positive and the volume was pretty good. The overall market was not as strong as the Dow and that isn't bullish going forward. Summation index still pointing down. We've got a Fed announcement in a couple of days and the employment report on Friday. It could be one of those fasten your seat belts type of week. The trading becomes compressed, with violent moves in both directions. It could be that kind of week. Gold had a good day, up almost $20 and near an all-time high. However the gold shares did not follow with the XAU only gaining 1 1/2 points. ABX, GG and NEM all had fractional gains on heavy volume. They were up good early and gave it all back. That really isn't the type of price action that is bullish either. My GG calls are still slightly in the black. Anything could happen. The gold shares are following the overall market. The dollar sold off early today and also came back when the market tanked halfway through the day. This GG call trade is becoming hard to hold on to. Plus we have the earnings out after the close on Wednesday. At this rate I am probably going to wait for the earnings. But I'm not sure. The technicals are still oversold but they could just stay there. It never gets easy in this game. Mentally I'm feeling OK, slept pretty good. The markets are starting to act a little crazy again. It makes for tough trading. There's no reason why I can't just get out of this trade and hit the sidelines. Except for the fact that you don't make any money that way. But you don't lose any either. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Back to the downside as the Dow lost 250 points to close the month. Volume was heavy and the advance/declines were 6 to 1 negative. This is not the scenario that will help my GG trade but it wasn't unexpected. Yesterday was just an oversold bounce. We closed near the low today so Monday should be interesting. Summation index still heading lower. Volatility has really picked up which should help the option premiums keep their value for a while. Anyway the trend in the overall market has changed to being down instead of up. Stay tuned. Gold sold off early but came back to be down a touch in the aftermarket. The XAU lost 5 1/2 points following the stock market. ABX and GG were down over a buck, while NEM gained 1/3. Volume was heavy. The dollar was higher today and it's possible that we are seeing a multi-week bounce there. Flight to safety trade coming back? Who knows? My GG calls almost got stopped out today but came back as did the precious metal. In retrospect I should have just sold them yesterday and perhaps even at some point today near the close. They are up just a bit. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep enough. I'm getting the feeling that the market is speeding up here. As in the volatility has picked up so that trades must be done in a shorter time frame. At the rate things are moving I will be stopped out of the GG trade before the earnings come out on Wednesday night. So I will have to come up with a distinct game plan for early next week with regards to this trade. There will be a lot to think about over the weekend. For now it's time for a rest but there's much work to do.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Well we got the bounce as we were pretty oversold. The Dow rose 200 points on average volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. Now the question is was this just a one day wonder? I'm inclined to think so. We will need to move sideways for a while before we head back up again in my opinion. But my opinion hasn't been worth much this year. Another scenario would be to continue the decline in earnest after today. End of the month tomorrow and Monday begins a new one. We'll have to see what kind of money flows appear. Gold bounced as well, up $16. The XAU gained 7 points. ABX up 2 1/2, with GG and NEM tacking on 1 1/2. Volume was a bit better than lately. My GG calls are in the black as the dollar was a bit weaker today. This GG trade is tricky. Earnings are not out until next Wednesday. I don't know if I want to hold on until then. On a daily basis there is room to move up from oversold but the shorter term indicators are already overbought. GG lagged today and that wasn't a good sign. I'll ponder things tonight. Mentally I'm a bit tired, did not sleep well. It was a nice bounce but where do we go from here is the question. Trading never gets easy. I may wait until Monday on the GG calls but I'll have to adjust as time goes on. Perhaps I will have to wait on the earnings. We'll see.
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