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Wednesday, November 26, 2014

A drift higher today as the Dow gained 12 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow including the small stocks.  This bodes well for the bullish cause going forward.  The summation index continues higher.  The trend remains up and should be for quite some time.  There is no overhead resistance.  GE was flat again and the volume was light.  Waiting for a spot to buy the March calls here.  Gold didn't do much on the futures but the US dollar was lower today.  Markets are traded thin this week.  The XAU fell a point.  ABX was flat today, while GG and NEM had small fractional losses.  Volume was holiday light.  There is some noise about an upcoming vote in Switzerland to peg some of franc to gold but the odds of passage are slim.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A shortened stock session on tap for Friday but I would not expect any major market movement.  End of the month that day as well.  The major players will be off.  Things will return to normal on Monday and we'll start the month of December.  There is nothing in the way to cause any of the bulls concern at the moment.  Gold and the gold share indexes remain below their 50 day moving averages.  I think sideways price action is the most we can hope for right now.  Short term overbought on some of the technical indicators for the gold shares but it has yet to produce a decline.  We'll see what next week brings.  Happy Thanksgiving to all that celebrate the holiday and we'll be back here on Friday.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

More of the same as the Dow fell 2 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  It's mixed bag here really with no major moves one way or the other.  The remainder of this week will be muted as traders will be leaving early tomorrow and Friday is a shortened session.  So we will wait and be patient.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Still waiting on a possible chance to get some of the March calls here/  Gold was barely higher on the futures as the US dollar lost ground today.  The XAU gained 2 2/3 though as it trades near the 50 day moving average.  ABX up 1/3, GG rose 7/8 and NEM added 1/2.  Volume was pretty good to the upside here which is surprising considering the holiday mode.  Perhaps the gold market knows something we don't.  Or not.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The trend remains up and the song remains the same for the stock indices.  I'm expecting tomorrow to be a light volume affair.  There will be some economic data reported but I don't think we'll really be back in the swing of things until next week.  Gold and gold share indices are at their 50 day moving averages.  A move through there would be constructive for the bullish cause here near term.  My ABX January calls are still very much in the black.  We'll see what happens overnight and go from there.

Monday, November 24, 2014

Nothing has changed as the Dow gained 7 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is back to moving higher.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  We should be drifting up for the remainder of the holiday week.  Overbought, staying that way and no change in sight.  GE was flat on the session and the volume was light.  Nothing new to report here.  Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures and the US dollar was a bit lower as well.  The XAU fell a point.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional losses.  Volume was light for ABX and GG.  Average volume for NEM.  The gains on my ABX January calls are being pared.  We are rolling over on the technicals for the gold shares here and it looks like I have overstayed my welcome on ABX.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not much to report with todays price action.  All signs point to more of the same.  The small stocks are relatively stronger and that's bullish.  New closing all time highs for many of the major stock indices.  There is no overhead resistance.  Gold is stalling at the 50 day moving average.  If we can get through there it would be a positive but I would not count on it just yet.  The gold shares broke the near term down trend line.  The next technical expectation would be a return to that line.  Perhaps that is what is occurring now.  Here too, the 50 day moving average is providing resistance.  Plenty of time for the ABX call trade that I'm in but maybe selling out last week was the proper move.  Time will tell on that.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and take it from there. 

Friday, November 21, 2014

A jolt higher in the morning and then a down to sideways drift.  The Dow ended the day with a gain of  91 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  There is nothing in the way of higher prices.  We'll get a holiday week next week and that is generally positive.  Declines will continue to be bought.  The trend remains up and should be for quite some time in my opinion.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was average.  I still like calls here but will need to see some decline for purchase.  Otherwise it's a wait and see game for GE.  Gold was up $6 on the futures despite a good day for the US dollar.  The XAU was up 3/4.  ABX, GG and NEM had fractional gains one way or the other on lighter volume.  The recent rise in the gold shares could be over here and perhaps I have overextended my stay with the ABX January calls.  Overbought on some of the short term technical indicators for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  What more can I say about the stock indices?  There are no sellers, only buyers.  We are in the seasonal positive zone for stocks and will be for quite some time.  New all time highs are a daily occurrence.  Calls are the way to go for option trading.  Daily declines are immediately purchased.  You cannot fight the positive price action.  Gold has had a bounce but it certainly hasn't been robust.  I think the most we can hope for here is a sideways range before continuing higher.  The only certainty is that I don't know.  The gold shares have had a decent couple of weeks but it does look like that may be out of steam.  There should be some more end of the year tax loss selling in this sector as well.  My ABX January calls are still showing a good profit.  I will have to seriously consider whether or not to sell them over the weekend.  I'll also be checking the charts to try and find some new ideas.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Another early sell off and another comeback as the Dow gained 33 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is beginning to trend sideways.  Things should pretty much slow down for the next week of trading days as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches.  I'd expect an overall positive bias to exist for the major stock averages.  We're still short term overbought and that condition persists.  No change to the uptrend for now.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was pretty light.  No trades here for now.  The gold futures were off three bucks but made up what they lost in the aftermarket last night.  Some volatility now for gold.  The US dollar finished the session little changed.  The XAU was up 1 7/8.  ABX rose 1/3, while GG and NEM were up 1/2.  Volume was light.  I think that sideways is the most that we can expect near term for the gold shares.  Overbought on the short term here.  My ABX January calls are still in the black.  I really need to think about selling them here but there is the potential for more upside after a digestion period.  Or not.  The game is never easy.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Patience is required now as we wait for the next set up.  I don't think that the OEX puts are the right trade even though we are overbought.  Declines are easily still being bought at the moment.  So we wait.  GE has had a nice upside run and getting the March calls is still in the plans.  However some type of pullback must occur for this trade to be worth it.  Gold and the gold shares have started to act better but there still may be some end of the year selling to contend with here.  I am tempted to simply book the profit here that I already have.  It's something to think about.  Expiration Friday tomorrow in front of a holiday week coming up.  We'll watch what happens in the foreign markets and close out the week tomorrow. 

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

A sell off early but the market almost made it all the way back.  The Dow fell 2 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  Still overbought and still staying that way.  The market is trying to make up its mind I suppose.  Declines are being purchased and that is expected.  I'm on the sidelines with regards to the OEX until a decent signal appears.  I don't know when that will occur.  GE was off a few cents and the volume was good.  No trades here until we see a pullback.  Gold was off a few bucks in the regular session but lost another $10 in the aftermarket.  The US dollar finished the day with a slight gain.  The XAU got crushed and lost almost 4 points.  It appears the bullishness for gold has been lost in a day.  ABX and NEM fell over 3/4, while GG dropped 1 1/4.  Volume was good to the downside.  Unless we see a turnaround in the gold shares tomorrow, the advance here is probably over.  My ABX January calls are still showing a profit but have lost some value.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  More of the same for the stock indexes.  Going nowhere fast really.  Sometimes patience is required and we have arrived at one of those times.  Holiday week coming up as well.  Gold had a good drop today and with volume.  That isn't good sign for the bulls.  I am going to have to consider selling the ABX January calls sooner rather than later.  We'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Another run to new highs as the Dow gained 40 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index continues to the upside.  Still pretty overbought here.  The final hour saw the market lose ground and that usually isn't positive going forward.  However we can see the positive upward bias of option expiration week in force today.  Plus the overall market and the small stocks were stronger than the Dow.  GE was up 3/8 and the volume was good.  GE was a precursor for the market once again.  It doesn't look like I'll get a chance for the March calls here.  Gold had a positive session with the futures gaining $13.  The US dollar fell today for a change.  I can make a case that the dollar has had a five wave up move since the beginning of July.  If that is so then more dollar weakness will follow.  We'll see.  The XAU was up 3 1/8.  ABX and GG gained 3/4, while NEM rose 2/3.  Volume was good and we broke above the down trend lines that have been in effect since the beginning of September on the gold share indices.  My ABX January calls are showing good gains for now.  The next question is when to sell.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like higher prices are coming for the major stock indices.  Although we remain very overbought all signs appear to be pointing higher for now.  Any declines can be bought in my opinion.  The gold shares are breaking out to the upside.  Price and volume are finally positive here now.  I don't know how long it will last.  But we should at least make it to the 50 day moving averages.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.