Wednesday, July 02, 2025
The overall market conitinued to rise today but the Dow dipped 10 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. We are in summer rally mode despite the mixed picture of the last two days. The NASDAQ took the lead higher today. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought. Only a half day trading tomorrow with the employment report out early in the morning. My guess is that many traders have already left for the holiday weekend so the price action tomorrow could be skewed. I still have my order out there for the SPY July puts but it may be time to rethink this idea. Markets can stay overbought for extended periods of time during good rallies. The S&P continues to hug its upper Bollinger band. Gold was up $19 on the futures. The US dollar was barely lower and interest rates were up a bit. The XAU rose 3 1/4, while GDX added about 2/3. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are now pointing up at the mid-range level. The tight Bollinger bands imply some type of decent move coming soon. At this point it appears that move will be to the upside. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits with an overall higher market. Still short term oversold here. Asia continues to be mixed and Europe was higher again with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see how the holiday mode market reacts to the jobs report tomorrow.
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