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Monday, July 07, 2025

Sellers returned today as tariff turmoil returned and the Dow fell 451 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 negative. The summation index is still moving up. The Dow barely led things lower. We were looking for some type of decline and we saw it today. I canceled my open order for the SPY July puts that wasn't filled on Thursday and replaced it with another at a different strike price. My hope is that we see a light volume up move from here back to the recent new high and roll over from there. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought despite todays drop. Gold finished up $6 coming back from early selling. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was up 2 1/4, while GDX added almost 1/4. Volume was average. The gold shares opened lower and closed higher for a one day upside reversal. The short term indicators for GDX are moving higher with room to go and tight Bollinger bands. Perhaps the gold share calls were the way to go today. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX gapped higher today and the short term indicators turned up. Still short term oversold here though. I do not think that todays price action is the start of a sustained decline just yet. But I could be wrong. I would like to see sideways to higher price action from here to try the SPY July puts before expiration. However markets rarely cooperate. Not a lot of economic data out this week. We will probably just move from tariff headline to headline. Asia was generally lower and Europe higher to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight news.

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